SGU Episode 51

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SGU Episode 51
July 12th 2006
(brief caption for the episode icon)
SGU 50                      SGU 52
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
R: Rebecca Watson
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
SGU Forum

Introduction

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Wednesday, July 12^th, 2006, and this is your host, Steven Novella, president of the New England Skeptical Society. With me this week are Bob Novella...

B: Hello!

S: Evan Bernstein...

E: Hello everyone.

S: Perry DeAngelis...

P: Righto.

S: ...and Jay Novella.

J: Hey gang, what's up guys?

S: Welcome everyone. We had hoped to have Rebecca on the show this week, but she is still gallivanting about Europe and it was too busy to join us. But I hope she's having a good time. She will be back with us next week.

J: She's drunk in an alleyway right now.

S: Perhaps.

E: Which country?

J: It doesn't matter.

S: We'll get the full report next week.

News Items

Space Shuttle Mission (1:01)

• STS-121 

S: So as we speak, STS-121, the space shuttle is carrying out its mission. Just thought I'd give that a mention. So he's nice to, by the time you have the space shuttle flying.

B: About time.

J: Yeah, right. How long was it Bob?

S: Over a year, right?

B: Two launches in a year. Something like that is crazy.

P: You know, space programs now what it used to be people.

E: That's for sure.

P: It's unfortunate. Sad.

S: So basically we're at the tail end of the space shuttle legacy and we haven't yet put up a replacement. So it's going to be a lean five or 10 years until we get the next generation online.

P: We've got to put this whole clunker to bed and build a new one.

S: We do. One more major disaster and that will end the space shuttle program, of course. And it may end even before that if they continue to have technical problems.

P: Does anyone know, just as a side note, does anyone know why the heat shield on the space shuttle is a bunch of tiles and not one sheet?

S: At the time. Yeah, I mean, at the time, with the material science that we had, that was the best they could do. The tiles need to be able to expand and contract and by having them all separate tiles that could move past each other. That was the solution, although-

J: Plus Perry, it makes it very not easy, but it makes it possible to replace pieces of the heat shield. They have a guy whose job is specifically to recreate those tiles. Their dimensions are, uses a machine or whatever to recreate those tiles and he handcarves them and all this stuff. It's very complicated, but they've replaced a ton of those tiles-

S: Every mission.

J: -every time. Yeah.

P: Wouldn't it just be easier to have one piece click it on and off? Have a new one ready? Click it on.

S: The next generation will probably have a one solid surface not a tile.

P: It should.

S: It's, it wasn't a 30-year-old technology.

E: It's a 25-year-old technology, 30-year-old, like you said.

P: 30, 30 at least. Put it the bed.

S: NASA has some really cool videos of the, they have to be attached cameras to different parts of the shuttle and you could look at forward and after camera views by going, we'll have the link on our notes page.

E: It's great.

J: Yeah, that is really great.

S: We're going to have fun to look at the-

J: If anybody out there hasn't seen it yet, I highly recommend taking a look at one. I love the one where they, they show it go all the way from the launch pad to orbit. You literally see it, you see Florida drop out into the, no way, you know what I mean?

B: My favorite, my favorite video was the one that showed that little Gremlin of wing. That was awesome.

S: I think that's an example of fusing a memory from something else. That was the Twilight Zone movie, right?

B: Twilight Zone movie, William Shatner?

J: Bob, there's something on the wing.

B: Nice Jay.

Asteroid Near Miss (3:42)

• www.pantagraph.com/articles/2006/07/12/news/doc44b3b59852c66238242052.txt

S: So a couple of weeks ago, a very large asteroid zipped past the earth-

B: And grazed our travel.

J: If it hit us, what would have happened? Direct hit, no, no glancing blow.

B: It would have done some very, very serious low and local damage. I mean, it wouldn't cause any extinctions, but it would wipe out a vast track of land. The initial estimates I heard said that it would devastate a continent, but I think they revised that downward. It's the damage would have been pretty dramatic though, but not that devastating.

P: I'm unimpressed by anything less than an extinction level event. I've seen too many movies. I'm jaded.

B: It's kind of, it's unusual. Whenever we have these close calls, it's a little bit of concern there because it really brings home the fact that we could get hit, but it makes me, it makes me really hope that this is the one that's that everyone's going to start taking it seriously and really start mapping this out and dissearching full time and put a lot of people on it. And how many times have we seen one not approaching us, but leaving-

S: On the way out.

B: -the way from us?

J: That's the wrong side to see it. What we need is a full blown plan on dealing with these things. I mean, we should be deflecting them before they get near us.

P: Well, what are we going to do? Let's say you see a five mile asteroid coming towards yours. What are you going to do about it?

B: Perry, we need time. If it's a few months away or a year away, we are toast. There's nothing we could do about it. Now there's, there's lots of options. One very interesting new option I read about was that if we, if we could find this early enough, all we would really have to do is park a big ship and just use the gravitational pull of the ship to slowly change its orbit enough so that it misses us. And that's all it would take.

J: Wow, I never heard of that one. That's cool, Bob.

B: And there's other plans some people think, oh, let's just blow it, let's just blow it out of the sky, so to speak. And that, generally, that wouldn't be a good idea because then it would cause more widespread damage because you'd have lots of little pieces hitting us instead of one big one.

J: I like the one where you attach a rocket engine to it and just put nudge it.

B: That's that's possible too. I think those plans are being seriously considered. But the key is we've got to know as soon as possible when it's 15 years out, 20 years out. So we've got the time.

S: Which means we have to survey all of the near earth asteroids. There are some astronomers who are arguing now like this guy, David Asher from our mod observatory Northern Ireland that our previous estimates of the average time between impacts is actually a lot, is too high that they're going to be that they probably will occur at a higher frequency than our previous estimates because there are more of these unknown near earth asteroids than than we knew before. So the more we survey, the more we realize it's out there that the estimates only get only go up.

J: Well, anyway, they missed us again. So we're good. The aliens didn't win this time.

Psychedelic mushrooms ()

• www.pantagraph.com/articles/2006/07/12/news/doc44b3b59852c66238242052.txt

Kevin Barrett and 9/11 conspiracies ()

• english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/500325CD-FDBE-4C76-8ABB-0410229523DA.htm

Questions and E-mails ()

More on Supplement Regulation ()

What nonsense.

I do not disagree with the conclusion that most people do not understand the science (or lack there of) behind herbal supplements, I do not find the argument compelling. And while I am relatively new to your show and generally belive it is thoughtful, logical and expouses an approach to problems we should all support, as soon as an issue involves the shows leaderships profession and their ability to impose control over others, logic flies out the window and protection of personal privilege leaps to the fore.

The argument presented, cut to its essentials is, only us guys 'the experts' can really understand what is going on here and we should be allowed to control what you do, what you can have when you can have it etc.

This argument, which experts in all fields make all the time, while it contains clear elements of truth, is enormously self serving and elitist and dispointly often wrong.

Much as you could supply for most other fileds examples of how regulation is protectionist and leads to outcomes not in the best interest of its consumers, I can provide on request many examples, of how regulation in medicine, assures protection the ecconomic position of the status quo, rather than good outcomes for patients.

As a former Chief Scientist (PhD) of a major corporation and as a General Manager responsible for turning around failling businesses, in each case the key was to force one's self to see the data and hear the arguments clearly. Almost always the failing businesses I took over were in part a result of previous executives overly focused on their own expertise and looking inward at the 'in place experts'. Rather than being to hear from
outside 'the world is not as it appears'.

While it is one of the most difficult things to do, I strongly suggest that one apply the same degree of skeptism to your own expertise and that of your profession and colegues you do to the rest of the world.

Thank you fo

Peak Oil ()

Dear Guys (and Rebecca)

Great show! The perfect mix of hard facts, debunking and humour. Long may you podcast.
I realise that the following topic may be outside the scope of The Sceptics Guide.. but Im seriously worried and you guys may be able to give me a straight answer that I can trust. Should I believe this statement?

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global
'Peak Oil.'

This comes from a web site called http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I also just finished reading The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler.
You can read a synopsis of his book here
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency/

Whatdoyathink? Should I move to New Zealand? Are you coming too?

All the best

Mark Kelly
UK

Interview with Neal Adams ()

• www.nealadams.com/nmu.html
  
  Neal Adams is a famous comic book artist who is known for his illustrations Batman and the X-men; who believes he has revolutionized modern science, if only he can get those stubborn scientists to listen to him. We explore Neal's ideas of a growing earth.
  

Science or Fiction ()

Question #1: Recently published study indicates that educational toys are more effective than preschool in promoting later academic achievement in young children. Question #2: Scientists have discovered that some wooly mammoths were actually blonde. Question #3: Paleontologists down under have recently discovered fossil evidence of a carnivorous long-fanged kangeroo.

Skeptical Puzzle ()

Last Week's puzzle:

Name the medical pseudoscience that, although now thoroughly disproved and rejected by mainstream science, at its inception was on the correct side of a major scientific debate of the time.

Answer: Phrenology
Alternate answer: Homeopathy


New Puzzle:

When is a boomerang a type of dinnerware?

Neal Adams Follow-Up ()

Neal Adams and Steven Novella discussionOngoing discussion between Neal Adams and Steven Novella<br
Neal Adams writes:

STEVEN

There were no questions raised in your afterward that I would not be delighted to respond to ....If I was given the chance..
If you wanted to stick to the Geology , or the physics or Paleoentology , or engineering , that would be fine .
This whole thing usually comes as a surprise to most folks and You will recall that I tried to warn you that a short time like your podcast could hardly be enough time to cover all this . In the end you fellows made a ' cartoon'of it without realizing it because we . for logical reasons hopped from area to area. Too quickly to keep up with it all, Because this theory, as I said, lays over science like a new matrix, and each area first must be understood , then seen to link and be supported by all others . This is not common in todays approach to science, mores the pity.
The cartoon resulted! ......'This fellow is saying all science is wrong. He's nuts.'
Of course that is not what is happening at all.
Showing how an Earth could grow led inexorably to all the rest though one may not think so , on first blush.
I start with a simple premise , Instead of the continents being joined on one side of the Earth, which made no sense from the get-go.......UM.......why? You see.........?

1. the planets on one side would create a shift in the center of Earth's gravity , Pangea-ward of 4 kilometers .......which would sink the center of Pangea and raise the middle of the Pacific Above sea level.
2. The upper contintal plates match all around the world.
3. Teracarnasaurus lived only between 89 and 93 million years ago. This large dinosaur Has been found in France and Southern Africa . Impossible , because at that time Pangea had been broken in half and the top island was at the North Pole and the bottom half was at the South Pole ....Between the two a gigantic sea , that we call the Tethys Sea, 2000 miles wide , A long commute for the Teracarnasaurus. In fact , Impos

S: The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by the New England Skeptical Society. For information on this and other podcasts, please visit our website at www.theskepticsguide.org. Please send us your questions, suggestions, and other feedback; you can use the "Contact Us" page on our website, or you can send us an email to info@theskepticsguide.org. 'Theorem' is produced by Kineto and is used with permission.

References