SGU Episode 1022

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SGU Episode 1022
February 08th 2025
"Two playful bonobos share a moment of curiosity and connection in nature."
SGU 1021                      SGU 1023
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Quote of the Week
"The most important thing that illusions can teach us is that it is possible, at least some of the time, to find in being wrong a deeper satisfaction than we would have found being right.”
― Kathryn Schulz, Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error
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Show Notes
SGU Forum

Intro

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptic's Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

S: Hello, and welcome to the Skeptic Guide to the Universe.

Quickie (00:12)

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/nuclear-x-rays-deflect-earth-asteroids

S: Today is Wednesday, February 5th, 2025, and this is your host, Steven Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella. Hey everybody, Cara Santa Maria.

E: Howdy, Jane.

S: Novella. Hey, guys. And Evan Bernstein.

E: Good evening, folks.

S: Everyone keeping their sanity recently.

E: Stay grounded.

S: I mean, that's. No, it's so hard. I watched some of the RFK junior testimony, the hearings. Yeah, he's, no, this is going to the information that we have is going to be outdated by the time you listen to the show because I think one, one thing or another will have happened. But, you know, there was a slight chance that he would not make it through the committee, you know, before getting to the full Senate vote, you know, 'cause RFK Junior is an absolute crank and pseudoscientist who does not have the, the skills or ability to head federal health care. The best hope was that Cassidy would have been the would have voted against him 'cause he is actually, he's a Republican and he's a, a, a physician. He's actually the, he's the guy who invited me down the testimony in front of Congress.

E: That's right.

S: He's the one who gave me the double finger guns, you know, when he's leaving, leaving the room. Yeah, but.

E: He's been very he. He in the past has been very critical of RFK.

S: Absolutely. And he definitely, you know, is I think at the more reasonable end of the spectrum for his side of the aisle. And because he's a physician that has informed, you know, some of some of his policies. So this was it. This came right down to was he going to go with the politics or go with his oath as a physician and his absolute knowledge, like he knows that RFK Junior is full of it and nobody knew how he was going to vote and he voted to pass it through the committee. So I think that was the death of the we will. I'll be very surprised now if RFK Junior does not get does not get confirmed. We'll see. Again, as you're listening to this, you might know the answer to that, but.

E: What is the chance, Steve, that Cassidy will vote no in the general?

S: Yeah. I mean, I guess it's non 0, but if I think if he were going to vote no, he would have just done it during this committee vote.

C: Yeah, because that would have stopped it.

S: Yeah, that would have, but.

E: But is he? But is he trying to play both sides of the fence like because he can vote yes once and no once in well have the in this in this scenario.

S: Does that really help? I mean.

E: I don't know. I I'm not, I'm not so politically astute to know if that helps him politically or not.

C: But if he votes, if he voted no, then it would be dead. If he votes yes and then no, it's going to live.

J: But what would the strategy be if he if he did? If that was his intent, why would he do it that way?

E: Well, I mean, we've seen it has happened before in which to to just get things out of committee to keep things, quote UN quote moving so that it can get the real full vote. And then if you're going to kill it. But based on however, the whether they call it whipping and they where they pre count the votes and how it's going to go it maybe he knows something. Maybe he knows that it's it's tight and.

S: It's only going to fail with his no vote though, so he's still going to be come down to him.

E: Yeah, you're, I mean, you're right. I mean, chances are he will still vote yes.

S: But anyway, listen to the testimony was so painful because they're asking him, do you think that vaccines cause autism? And he and RFK is saying, if you show me the evidence, then I'll go with the evidence. It's like, so the last 30 years of you looking at the evidence wasn't enough, You're going to suddenly change your mind. It was such.

E: Transparent. Bullshit. That time.

S: It was such transparent bullshit he did. He was just lying through his teeth, you know, just saying the things he needed to say, although even you know you could it was very easy to tell, you know, for somebody who knows his history and knows his reticle and you can't rail against the vaccines for twenty 30s and because they I'll listen to the evidence. Of course, him listening to the evidence is completely butchering the science, right we.

E: Have to hope somehow.

S: I mean, I just, I'm, I'm prepared for him to get through and then we'll just see what horrible Ness ensues.

E: Ohh boy. Hopefully. Well.

S: It's really just, yeah, it's the only question mark is how big the death toll is going to be. Yeah, exactly. And of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Shock and awe that we are being they're.

US#05: Just getting warmed up.

C: And this and and that's the point. It's a feature, not a bug.

S: Yeah, no, I agree.

C: Open up the fire hose.

S: No, I mean, I mean Bannon directly said it like we are going to flood the zone with so much stuff that they'll never be able to mount an effective resistance against any one of the things that we're going to do.

C: Yeah, a lot of it'll still get through even if we can block certain things.

E: Right. They'll throw everything against the wall and they can only and you can only goalkeep so much of this stuff.

C: And one of the biggest things that is being that is on the chopping block right now, which is like very scary is sort of a follow up but more intense to what I talked about last week, which was PEPFAR, which got swept up in the freeze on January 20th. You know, the very first day in office when Trump implemented this 90 day freeze on foreign assistance. Another thing that has gotten deeply, deeply swept up in this is a much larger, I guess we could call it appropriation, called USAID.

S: Yeah.

C: For those who don't know what USAID is, if you remember when I was talking about PEPFAR, which was started under George W Bush, USAID was started under Kennedy during, you know, the Cold War. It stands for the US Agency for International Development. It is the main agency that we use at the federal level for assistance for disaster prone countries, poverty, disease, democratic reform. So this isn't just there's, there are political reasons behind USAID as well. But because of this freeze and then subsequent scattering to go, oh God, this freeze actually is causing a lot of, you know, pain and suffering. You know, let's put certain parts of the freeze on hold. You know, Rubio came out only a few days later and said, no, no, no way. We need strictly life saving emergency programs to not be frozen. But these different departments don't know if that applies to them. And since then, we've seen thousands of contractors get laid off. We've seen, let's say, 10s, maybe dozens of officials that were put on leave. Employees were told just this week that they cannot enter the Washington headquarters. And USAID's website and its accounts on social media platforms have been taken down. So a lot of people shut down. Yeah. And a lot of people are scrambling because we've got to remember that this is all over the world. So boots on the ground that are doing important peacekeeping, that are doing important human rights work, refugee work, hunger. They don't have access to the aid that they need or the trucks aren't coming or, you know, any number of problems are preventing them from being able to do the work that ultimately is life saving work. We're talking about like HIV treatment. We're talking about, well, that's more PEPFAR, but we're talking about like malaria treatment. And as we mentioned last week, when you pause, it's essentially the same as stopping. As, you know, like for certain people who are caught in that pause, the downstream effects can happen months to years later and it can still end in death even if you open up the pipeline days later. It's really, really dangerous to just stop a bunch of moving parts all at once. And so, yeah, we're just, we're seeing, we just every day there's a new article about it and we don't know what's gonna happen.

S: Yeah, it's really bad for the NIH as well. You know, the biggest biomedical research organization in the world, they just cancelled meetings. So these are like meetings that take months to put together. Like you can't just flip the switch back on. And this are meetings determining funding. So now you have researchers across the country who don't know if their career is going to go forward or not. Like you survive from funder you know funding to funding you know from grant. Well, yeah, I mean, but that's happening across departments, right? Yeah, I know, I know. But. It's not just an, it's, it's EPA. It's, I mean, it's so scary. It's so reckless because like again, it's, it's, it's going to be extremely disruptful to biomedical research Again, We'll, it'll take years to really feel the, the long terms effects of this, but it is, it is amazing how quickly you can absolutely disrupt things like that.

C: Oh, yeah. And I mean, I, I think that's why I just can't help but go back to it. Like, that's why this USA thing is so, so scary. There's even a quote in a New York Times article here from an unnamed scientist who said you could open the funding floodgates again tomorrow and you would still have children dying months from now because of this pause.

S: Yeah. Right.

C: You cannot stop their medication or their antimalarials, their mosquito Nets, their, you know, food programs. It's yeah, it's terrifying.

J: It's scary how quickly that they can knock all this down. And the reality is that, you know, it would take a huge amount of time to repair the damage just to just to try to set up the government agencies again and everything. You know, it's just like, you know, people aren't just waiting for the job. You know, you want the right people in those positions, they're going to go get employed in other places.

C: And what is the purpose, really? Like what is the the sort of elephant in the room that we're not talking about? It's money. If we shutter all of these programs, we save trillions. Why do we need to save trillions?

S: But if you look at each individual program, you actually, most of these programs actually save more money than they cost.

C: Of course they do, because. But that requires foresight, right? That requires actually doing the calculations. But tomorrow I can claw back cash and that's really what this is. It's a massive money grab. It's so scary.

S: I think it's more than that though you're you're correct of.

C: Course it is.

S: But it's way more than that. You know, like, even with PEPFAR, it didn't just get swept up in this. The Republicans have been gunning for PEPFAR for years because they are afraid that some of that money may go to fund abortions and to therefore it's been on a chopping block for a while.

C: It's the same thing with USAID. I mean, it's yeah, Republicans have said why are we, you know, giving health care to the rest of the world? Why are we, you know, it's the same with EPA. It's the same with NOAA. It's the same with the US Department of Education. But ultimately, both of those things can be true. Part of the reason that these things are argued to be gutted is for a money grab purpose, because politically certain ideologies say that's not where our money should go, it should go over here instead.

S: Right. But most of these, yeah, again, you know, I'm sure there's fraud and abuse and waste in the in the federal government. Any institution that's huge is going to have going to have fraud and waste. But that takes careful eye, you know, close examination and a scalpel to sort of peel that away. This is just just, you know, shuttle it down and we'll sort it out later. Yeah, kind of thing.

C: That and that's, that was Musk's approach at the companies that he works at, right. He fully has said this is what we're going to do, stop the pipeline and then make an argument for why you need that funding back and we'll see if we'll give it back to you. It doesn't work that way.

S: Yeah, I mean, if you, if you're running that way Twitter, that's fine.

C: I know, but if you're if you're running healthcare across the globe.

S: That's not fine. Yeah, exactly. OK. This is we got it out of our systems, guys.

C: Now we can have a science.

S: Not going to change any time for the moment.

US#05: Yeah, feels so much better.

S: Let's completely change track here.

News Items

Asteroid Chance of Hitting Earth (11:51)

• Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 

S: Bob, you have a quickie for us.

B: Thank you, Steve. This is your quickie with Bob. Scientists have been doing lab experiments testing the idea that the X-rays from a nuclear blast could divert asteroids. Now, large asteroids need more energy to be diverted from a collision course with Earth, right? I mean, they're bigger, so much more momentum. A kinetic impactor like DART. Remember that that dude that, that smashed into a, into a, an asteroid and actually changed its trajectory? That's from a few years ago, so that wouldn't be good enough for this case. It would just have to be far too massive and go be traveling far too fast. Some techniques though, could work with a large a very large asteroid, and that includes things like fusion engines, focused lasers, and neutron bursts. Those are all things that they think could do a much better job. The best option though seems to be what they call standoff nuclear explosions, which generate X-rays. So these scientists had at their disposal conveniently a device called AZ Machine at Sandia Labs in New Mexico. I think we've mentioned this before. It's a high frequency electromagnetic wave generator, the largest in the world. This this thing can make incredible X-ray beams. So they created a 6.6 nanosecond X-ray blast from the Z machine and they used it on a blueberry sized bit of quartz in freefall. Now these bits of quartz were of course stand insurance for asteroids. The X-rays rapidly heated and vaporized the surface, which created which creates this powerful expanding gas plume on the surface. And and as you might guess, that plume pushes on the quartz like a rocket exhaust, very similar to rocket exhaust. And in this case that the quartz shot away at 250 kilometers an hour. So it's pretty impressive. I don't think they were expecting quite that much. But those results were then incorporated into like Part 2 of this, this experiment into a lab simulator. And then, and it was scaled up, of course, to see, all right, how would this work? We take what we've learned from this lab experiment, recreate it in the computer, in the computer simulation and see how it scales up. What happened. So they showed that the X-rays from a nuclear blast a couple of kilometers away from a large asteroid could deflect it, assuming, of course, it has similar composition right to the, to what they tested in the lab. And but, but get this, it could deflect an asteroid up to four kilometers. It was 4 kilometers ±1km, so potentially even 5 kilometer. That's, that's huge. That's really big. Similarly, though, and, and also pretty important it this technique, if it works scaled up in reality, it could also be used on a smaller asteroid that's going to hit Earth really soon, like within a year. So just a regular and the the other techniques like a kinetic impactor wouldn't be good enough for a small one being that close. So that's it. So they made a point of saying that this also could work in that scenario, which is also all of it's very encouraging. So deflecting any asteroid is mostly about what? Making a change in its trajectory soon enough to make it miss the Earth, right? That's all that matters. So, so obviously the farther away it is, even the tiniest nudge can eventually make it miss the Earth, but that's really difficult because you have to be able to get there when it's really, really far away and, and know that it's going to hit the Earth in the 1st place. So using powerful X-rays from a nuke means that we need less lead time than we would need from a kinetic impactor. Now we know the Earth will be hit by a large asteroid at some point, right? It's just a matter of when it's going to happen, could happen tomorrow, could happen in 1000 years, who knows, but it will happen. And so this one bit of technology could potentially save humanity and prevent some life form in the distant future from digging us up like we do the dinosaurs from 66,000,000 years ago. I'm totally behind this, this kind of research. It could save our butts, absolutely. And this has been your X-ray nuke quickie with Bob. Back to you, Steve.

S: That's interesting. Yeah, we definitely need to improve our technology for deflecting asteroids near Earth. Asteroids. Ones that potentially could cross our path.

B: Imagine we could, Steve, we could find one like, oh, look, there's a huge asteroid. This is going to definitely hit us. Oh, crap. It's just too big and too close. We can't do anything. Oh, well, enjoy the next three months. You know, it's a that could absolutely happen.

S: And in fact, there's a candidate that we have to keep an eye on, right, Bob?

B: Oh, me again, Huh. All right. Oh. A double header. The asteroid.

S: Asteroid double header.

B: Double header. So all right, so I'll start with don't panic yet. Yeah, come on, you got to make you got to make the Hitchhikers guide. Don't.

J: Panic anymore than you're already panicking. Bob, when you say don't panic, that makes me panic.

B: Yeah, it's. Well, that's I'm I'm being about elephants. I'm being. Serious. No, there's no really there's no need to panic here. But it has happened. I'm a little nervous little about a near death asteroid. Wait, I mean a near Earth asteroid.

E: Oh my gosh.

B: Bobby, I'm with us here. No, it's, it's a it's a I'm a little nervous about it. It's, you know, worst case scenario is not good, but chant, it's going to be fine. Don't worry. All right, let's see. So this is this asteroid is perhaps the size of a football field. This was detected last December. The latest estimates point to A1 in 66 chance it could collide with the Earth three days before Christmas 2032. So the question is, do we need to, and I'm going to say it, do we need to gird our loins for this one? Do we need our towels? The last question always has an answer. Yes.

E: Oh, yeah.

B: FYI. So the asteroid's name is 2024 Y R4, and I'm going to name him Chucky because it's small and but if it gets close, you're toast. It was detected by the asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System in Chile, funded by NASA, and was moving away. It was moving away from us and it was already millions of miles away. So it's like, oh, look it, look what's moving away so.

E: Bob, did you say the last alert system?

B: That's what it's called that. Sounds. Terrible asteroid, terrestrial impact. Last alert system.

US#00: That sounds so terminal. I mean, right?

B: Yeah, it's, I mean, hey, they're doing great work over there. So it's 40 to 90 meters wide or 130 to 300 feet. Numbers are all over the place. And let me say right here, it's probably won't hit us. And even if it did, this would never be an ELE event. Steve, what does ELE stand for?

S: A extinction level event.

B: Right. This is not this never can be an extinction level event. It's just not big enough. But this does represent a potential city destroyer, which is of course horrific, but for.

E: Them it's an extension.

B: Oh my God, you. Know, but this would be this would be a local event with no major global repercussions. So stop thinking about the movie Deep Impact. So yes, it's horrible, but not maximally horrible. How's that so? The size though, the size though that we have is solely based on its brightness. So there's, so there's a large uncertainty. So it's very limited wavelengths that we got from it that we're, that we're judging its size on. It could be, it could be a darker than we think and therefore bigger, or it could be brighter than we think and smaller. We don't know. So what when astronomers find a near Earth asteroid like this, they, what they need to do very quickly is extrapolate its orbit, its trajectory and see if Earth is in danger. So the next approach to us is going to happen in 2028. So in three years and they've determined that we are safe. 2028 they are damn certain that would you know, the risk corridor, I think they call it is, is large, but it's it's nowhere near the Earth. So we're good. The next orbit though, after that, that's the one that's problematic. You know, of all the possible trajectories in that corridor that it could be orbiting it through, more than 1% of them put the Earth and asteroid in the same place on 12/22/32. So greater than 1%, you know, all right, so now as the days have passed, I've been tracking this the past 10 days or so, they refine their predictions, they've been refining it. And we often see the risk increase a bit before eventually just disappearing. They're like, oh, it's, you know, the risk is worse, the risk is worse. Oh, there's no risk. That's kind of the history of these things. It gets a little bit riskier based on the estimates. And then it did. Then it goes away once they have enough critical mass of of observation. But this one though, you know, end of December, it's still getting a little bit worse every time I look at it. When I first saw it, it was a one in 88 chance that it's going to hit the Earth. Then it was one in 77, and then as of to earlier today, it was one in 63. So that's a 1.6% chance. So still, you know, hey, there's still almost a 99% chance that Earth's going to be fine. And there's no astronomers are losing sleep over this. So take that.

E: Well, one out of 100 should be.

B: Well, yeah.

C: That's how statistics work, so I love.

B: It so the asteroid.

J: I'm I'm worried now, Jesus.

B: Well, I'm the one you know.

E: And there's the one.

B: So the asteroid is only a three on the Torino impact hazard scale and I love this. Three out of what? Three out of 10 it goes from zero to 10. So 0 is don't even think about it. A 1089 and 10 means it's going to hit the earth, but the smaller ones that are going to hit the the earth are an 8 and the biggest ones that are going to hit the earth are A10.

C: So I want all my asteroids to be zeros. I don't know.

B: Yeah. 00 maybe even a one, but zero's good. So A3 means that this is mainly it. This merits attention by astronomers. Astronomers need to to track this, that that's what a three means. But you know, this is not a ho hum scenario at all. If you haven't gotten that vibe from me, get it? This is not, this is not like, yeah, you know, whatever the problem is, as I see it, this is heading away from us fast and in nearly a straight line. So it's very hard to study it now, and it's only going to get harder as it gets farther and farther away. It's entirely likely this is the crux of this entire talk. It's entirely likely that we will not be able to rule out an Earth impact until 2028. So probably, maybe for the next three years, we're not going to know for sure. And this is going to stay number one on the list, the watch list. So what's going to happen in 2028? So say three years passed, we've never got a good beat on it. We don't know if it's going to hit the Earth. We don't know what the real odds are. So 2028 comes and that's when we hit it with radar specifically because the radar will tell us pretty much most of what we need to know about it and let us know, OK, the likelihood is still 1% or, or a 10th of a percent or, or completely negligible or you know, maybe 70%, we don't know. But we need to hit it with with some radar and it's that probably will only happen in 2028. Maybe they could do it now, I don't think. But we may have to wait those three years. And that's what that's what it's. I really do not like. So, yeah, our worst fears could be realized. And they, you know, we calculate in 2028, oh, look, Chucky is probably going to hit the earth. And by then it's going to be probably way too late to do anything to deal with it. So once we calculate that this is going to hit us, it automatically jumps from a three to what? What do you think it's? This is. 8 Very good you've been paying attention. I'm so happy right now it'll be it jumps to an 8 and it could never go to a nine or A10 because it's just not big enough for that. So I know you're all thinking it. What would happen if we are hit? So like I said, this is a city killer. Depends. But more specifically, what does that mean? John Tonry is an astronomer, University of Hawaii. He likens the impact to A10 megaton bomb. He says specifically, everything within 3 or 4 kilometers will be incinerated. Everything out to maybe 10 kilometers is smashed. It's not a nuclear explosion, but it's an extremely hot explosion. There would be a huge fireball that would start fires out to 15 kilometers, something like that. It would kill a lot of people if they haven't moved out of the way.

E: That's the point, right? I mean, there'll be time to evacuate.

B: Absolutely, Absolutely.

C: Well, and that's assuming that it's going to land in a city, but most right meteorites at least land in the middle of the desert or the ocean.

B: Exactly, exactly. And that, and that segues nicely into where, where is this going to hit? And that they can calculate that to a with a certain degree of confidence. And so they they've defined a swath, a swath of the earth that that would be under threat if things don't change that too much. This this they call it a risk corridor. And this extends from the Pacific Ocean through the northern South America, then the Atlantic Ocean, and then sub-saharan in Africa, the Arabian Sea and parts of South Asia. So those are the areas.

E: Most the planet.

C: No, but it's a specific latitude, right? That's what they're calculating.

B: Yeah, that's.

C: As it wraps around the globe because we're spinning.

B: Right, exactly so but but you're right though, this, this, you know, that's that that's where it could hit, but it could just hit the ocean. And but then you've you've got the, you know, you have to deal with a tsunami and I couldn't find too much detail out there. How bad would the tsunami be? I'm sure if you're near anywhere near where it hits in the ocean, the tsunami could be could be bad. But then there's another option here. There's an air burst scenario. Now Chucky, Chucky seem Chucky seems like he's rocky. He's more rocky than metallic, so it's he could potentially explode in the upper atmosphere and never even reached the ground in one piece. This could be similar to the famous Tunguska event in 19 O 8, which flattened what, 2100 square kilometers in a in a remote Siberian forest. Very good, Evan Yeah, the still that could be pretty nasty. If this happens over a city, it it would obviously bad. You guys remember the Russian city Chelyabinsk? Yes.

E: 2014, yeah.

B: It was like, yeah, 1011 years ago, window windows were shattered, hundreds were injured, and that rock was only 20 meters wide. This could be, you know, 3-4 times that. So yeah, even an air burst over a city, you know, over a populated area could be, could be kind of nasty. But after all that doom and gloom, we are lucky though. We are lucky in 2025. There's not much luck flying around, but we're lucky with this because the world has been taking the possibility of an asteroid strike much more seriously for years now. I was so glad when they started listening to my rants on the show 20 years ago, spotting Chucky and extrapolating its orbit like we have done already would have been very, very hard to do. And I think we would have missed it entirely in 2025. And maybe we would, maybe we would have caught it in 2028. I don't know. It would have been very difficult. Now it's much easier to do it. So we're also lucky because once an asteroid is detected that is more than 50 meters wide and has a 1% chance or greater of hitting the Earth, then our planetary defenses kick in. Now, I'm not talking about force fields surrounding the Earth. I'm not even talking about an obelisk that shoots a beam that moves the asteroid conveniently out of the way. We don't have those cool toys yet. And of course, that was a reference to Star Trek. So the first step, the first step that we have now is we mobilize available telescopes worldwide to gather data about the new asteroid. So once this was announced, lots of, lots of, lots of telescopes, you know, were utilized to, to get more information about this. So that's, that's the first step. The other part of this first step is that 2 UN endorsed groups are activated. There's the International Asteroid Warning network chaired by NASA, and then there's a space mission planning advisory group chaired by the European Space Agency, ESA. Now NASA's group coordinates worldwide detection and, and warning strategies. But the ESA group has the cool job. They evaluate the spacecraft options to deflect the asteroid if the collision odds remain high. That's what they're going to be doing. So now both groups very closely monitor Chucky's trajectory, of course, because that that impacts what they're actually going to be doing. The ESA group is already holding meetings this week. They have already held some meeting meetings as we speak. And So what they said, one of the things they said is that no immediate actions are are required right now. They're premature, they're premature. But in April or May, they're going to formally evaluate. So if the if the probability stays above 1%, then they're going to work with the UN and evaluate mitigation possibilities, including using a spacecraft to hit the asteroid to deflect it like dart craft a few weeks ago. Or who knows, they may have another arrow in their quiver, which could include an X-ray nuke to push it away, kind of like that obelisk from Star Trek. I doubt they're going to have that tech ready totally. I totally doubt they'll have that ready. But The thing is the key though is not to sit on our hands until 2028 because that's going to really piss me off. They need to make I think if we by April, if we don't know, if we still don't know its exact orbit and think it's still like 1.6% above 1%. I think we absolutely need to have something ready to fly in 2028. What? I don't care what the hell it is, have something ready. I probably an impactor will be enough, a kinetic impactor because because the one that dart was used against was about the same size and it worked. So I think they need to really seriously consider it. Of course, they've got to do their due diligence and they don't want to make sure that they're not diverting it to, you know, hitting the earth even more straight on than before. Whatever. But we may need to really just be ready. And if if it turns out it's not going to hit the earth when we look at it in radar, fine, but we'll be ready for the next one that comes, and who knows when that is.

E: Oh, I have a correction to make on something I said that Chiblinks Chelebinsk meteor was not 2014, it was 2013, in fact, February of 2013. So we're coming up on the anniversary.

B: OK, yeah, I remember. I remember that day I was, I was in the cafeteria at work and like, oh wow, an air burst.

E: And they had like 100 cameras pick it up. It was great.

B: Yeah, that was all tense. People caught it. A lot of people caught it on their. Dash Cam. In the car.

C: I love all of the Russian dash Cam like footage. Vote.

E: Crashes and stuff.

C: No, no, like the ones of really meteorites, right, Where they're just driving and there's a fireball in the sky and they just do not react. And it is so funny. They're just like and just keep driving.

E: They love dash cams in Russia that that that seems to be a thing.

C: Yeah, maybe. Like it may be a taxi thing. I don't know, Like every Uber has one. I don't know every, but a lot of Ubers have them. I don't.

S: Know All right. Thanks, Bob. Well everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about one of our sponsors this week, Curiosity Weekly.

J: Guys, science and technology, they're moving faster than ever. And science and tech are constantly evolving. And if you want to keep up with the latest information, you should definitely listen to the Curiosity Weekly podcast from Discovery on Curiosity Weekly. They make sense of some of the biggest questions and ideas shaping our world.

C: Again, I mean, I know you love science podcasts. You're listening to one right now. So you can learn all sorts of things on Curiosity Weekly, from information about the latest neuroscience to neural networks, algorithms, sleep science, and so much more.

E: Listen to Curiosity Weekly wherever you get your podcasts.

S: Well, everyone, let's get back to the show. Jay.

Does the Internet Affect Our Memory (31:44)

• Are the Internet and AI affecting our memory? What the science says 

S: Is the Internet adversely affecting our memory?

E: What'd you say?

J: Yeah. I mean, it could be Steve, it could be. But there's details, you know, it's always these little nuances that we've got to pay attention to. The interesting thing here is that our species has always been looking for ways to help us remember information. You know, we, we rely on external tools to store data. So historically, what did we do? We, you know, we maybe we made cave paintings that told the story and then later on, you know, people created scrolls to write stuff on, right? Today we have computers and also the amount and kinds of data that we can store on it, right? Very different than just writing, you know, words and drawings on a scroll. Today computer could could do a huge number of things when it comes to to data. So the question is, does the Internet, artificial intelligence and modern computing fundamentally alter the way that we learn and remember information? Before I continue, I'm curious to hear what what's your gut telling you guys?

C: Well, that's such a broad question. There's no way to answer that question without saying yes. But like, in what regard? I don't.

J: Know well is it having a negative impact.

C: Oh, a negative impact? Well, it's probably both.

E: Probably.

C: It's probably affecting certain types of retrieval, but increasing certain types of processing.

J: To work on the answer, we have to look at how we interact with information, right? So, you know, what do we do today? We Google things like we use search engines, we have GPS and those, those two things, if you're just looking at them alone, they've changed the way dramatically change the way that we search for information and the way that we navigate in our vehicles. And studies have shown that relying on GPS it, you know, it reduces our ability to remember roots. And it's pretty true. Like I remember everything from my childhood. I, I mean, I know my childhood neighborhood really well. You know, I have all the street names memorized and everything, but you know, my adult home, not so much. Like I know how to get in and out, but I mean, there's a million side streets that I never even pay attention to. You know, you know, if I'm going to go somewhere that's, you know, not 15 minutes to the store, I put GPS on. Even if I'm going to the doctor, which you know, I might do once a year, I don't completely remember where every doctor is that, you know, my kids doctors, my wife's doctor, my doctor. So I think it does have a profound influence or effect on just the way that we're paying attention right when we're driving in the car. So today we use Google and other search engines when we want to find information online. But earlier, you know, years and years ago, we people had to read books to get information. And that's a totally different experience than quickly searching something and getting right to the heart of the matter, like the fact that you're looking for instead of sifting through, you know, one or more books to learn something, which is just again, like, it's a, it's a different way of interacting with, with the information. People would have to commit a lot more time to learning. And there's a phenomenon that's sometimes called the Google effect, which means that we're shifting away from internal memory and instead we're using the the Internet and our computers to give us the answers. The Google effect. Yeah, I mean, sure, I, I, I see that I definitely use the computer way more than I'll crack open a book If I, if I'm, you know, going to ask questions and want quick answers. My gut tells me like as I was reading this information, my gut was telling me, yeah, I do think that technology has been kind of ruining my personal memory on lots of different things that I do. But these are suggest What's that?

C: I don't think it has to mine because you're forgetting the second-half of that equation. And maybe it's a, it's a function of volition because sure, if you don't, if you want to just engage in this sort of attentionally thin way and just find what you need and move on. And then all of that architecture, all of that space that you now have available to you, you can fill with whatever you want. You can fill it with trash TV, or you can fill it with other types of knowledge.

J: Yeah. I guess, I guess overall, we're not talking about specifics. We're talking about like in general with all the different things that we do in the way that we're interacting with information, you know what, what's the overall effect? So there is research on this and the research suggests a couple of things. One, that it can impair our performance on specific tasks like navigating or recalling facts, but there's not significant evidence that suggests an overall decline in our cognitive ability. And that that makes me very happy because it's always like, you know, use it or you're going to lose it, right? And I know that with your brain that that is in play, like if you're, if you're not using your brain exercising your brain that your cognitive ability will decrease, right, Steve?

S: Yeah, I mean, that fits with my understanding of the research. But it The thing is at the same time the what the research shows is that it's very task specific. If you do a task, you get better at that task, right? And if you don't do it, then you get worse at that task. But that doesn't necessarily have global or generalizable benefits or detriments to your cognitive function. I think that probably the better way to look at this is not that it's like having a negative effect on on us. It's just that we are changing the kinds of things we're good at. Yes, we are adapting to the new information landscape that we have before us. So we're, we're, we're not developing some skills that are no longer relevant and we're developing other skills that are relevant. And of course, if you choose to test the irrelevant skills they will test. Work.

C: That'll look like a decrement. It's like when I think about the generational difference between myself and my parents. Yes, I probably don't have as much mental mapping from a navigational perspective, but I'll tell you what, watching them drive with their sat NAV makes me want to scream. They are such luddites when it comes to the SAT NAV. Like they just, they don't know how to use it. They don't know how to preempt turns. They don't know you know, Whereas I'm, I'm very fluid. I put my I put Apple Maps up every time I go anywhere, even places I know where I'm going because I want to know down to the second when I'm going to arrive and I want to know if there's a better path.

J: Researchers are not 100% aligned right. You know, this is early, early in the research. So some researchers are arguing that offloading memory to digital devices it's not necessarily harmful and it.

C: Gives you more.

J: Of them think it can free up cognitive resources for more complex mental processes like, you know, should you memorize your grocery list? Should you write it down or should you just have it already created on your your smartphone when you go to the store right. And instead of spending time on that, you could spend time on more complicated things that take more attention. And then there now there's the whole thing with AI, right? So AI is having an impact and they're, and they're trying to figure out exactly what that impact is. So, you know, search engines changed how we retrieve data, but AI has, you know, the potential to reshape how you know how that data is formed and how we absorb that data. So generative AI, you know, things like ChatGPT, they provide information in, in a new way that really hasn't existed before. It's interactive and it's conversational. And that is so true. I mean, the way that I use the way that I use ChatGPT when I'm doing research, it's a conversation without a doubt. And I, I find that to be a, a much better way for me to get information. I like that about it, but you know, it is more immersive than any other kind of way that we, we've done traditional searches and some experts worry though, that this could make users cognitively lazy, which could reduce the, the effort needed for critical thinking and deep learning. So that that was troubling for me, right? So you could, we could, we could slowly over time become kind of lazy mentally and, you know, general critical thinking skills and deep learning could, could suffer from that. Again, these are what the experts are doing. This is what saying this is what they're researching. There isn't like massive conclusive data yet because this is very hard to research, right? It's not like you just, you know, run a study for a couple of weeks and you have great data like these things could take. We, we might need a huge number of people and it might take, you know, a decade to really suss this out. So another concern that researchers have brought up is that AI has the, the ability to shape personal and historical memories. So let me explain that we have digital assistance and they can curate. You know memories for us by they they could assemble past photos and videos that can influence how people recall events. They could, there's also something called dead bots, right, These AI driven avatars that mimic deceased loved ones, which I think is horrible, by the way. But these, these could create virtual conversations with the past that create, you know, create new memories and potentially, you know, unreliable data could be transferred. You know, someone could be, you know, interacting with an AI and it's not accurate. You know, please, you know, I want to have a conversation with my, my father who passed away. And I want you to sound exactly like him. And I've given you, you know, half hour audio of the guy talking, you know, but the AI isn't the person and the AI could say a lot of things that it it's trying to simulate who the person is. But you know how how accurate could that be? I mean even the in Star Trek on the holodeck, remember that that one on the next Gen. Bob with like Geordie, like fell in love with like this engineer That was like a warp Dr. engineer.

US#03: Well, I might remember that too. Right, he created her on the holodeck and yeah, he was behaving horribly.

J: And the computer told him, like, as it goes on, the chances of it being accurate dramatically drop off to where? Like, you know, I just found that interesting and it reminded me of that.

C: Yes, that documentary, Star Trek.

J: Some some science fiction writer like, you know, called that out a very long time ago before anything like that was even remotely possible. Another idea here. Is there like one factor that complicates all of this is something that a lot of us complain about. And this is information overload. This has become one of my massive pet peeves. Or it maybe that's not even strong enough. Like, I really have a problem with information overload, right? People are exposed to, you know, huge amounts more data than previous generations like this. The volume of information we have to attempt to retain could make memory lapses feel more frequent, right? Because because we're faced with more information, right? We're not living in a small town of 30 people and, you know, we know everyone and basically that's all we know. And it's very, very short list of things like we're, we are all like doing, doing things online and, and getting bombarded with information. And God forbid you go on social media and then you're even bombarded with more information. You know, just it seems like it's overwhelming to me. It is. I don't know about you guys, but if our cognitive function is unchanged, right, then let's say that, you know, cognitively we're the same as we were 30 years ago, 40 years ago. But you add this factor in of all this, you know, information coming to us. It does have an effect. Now it could be a, a perceived effect that we have a decline in our memory because we're getting hit with so much that we we really can't possibly retain it, right. And we feel that I don't remember this. I don't remember that. Like, you know, when I look at, when I look at people, you know, famous people, Bob's really good at, at names and, and remember, you know, detecting their faces and all that. To me, you know, I, I don't know any, anything that happened in the last 15 years. I have a vague understanding and memory of any of it. I, I mean, I guess I'm not paying that close of attention. But like, you know, when I was 20, I knew every single person, you know, every single musician that was out there. You know, I, I had it all. Like, you know, drop of a hat. I could, I could name any of them Today. I have no idea what's going on.

C: But Jen, I think you just tapped into such an important point. But and that's a attention, like, I'm curious why. And I get it, like, you know, researchers investigate the things that they have expertise in and the areas of of their interest. But does the Internet affect our memory? OK, that is an interesting question. Does the Internet affect our attention? Yes, that's a part of memory. And that's a really important part because it's the first part. You can't remember things you don't attend to. You just can't.

J: Yeah, but do you, do you feel like the information overload thing?

C: Yeah, but I think that a lot of that is a a choice. And I get it. It's hard when you're a digital native and this is the water that you swim in because it probably doesn't feel like a choice. You probably don't feel like you can stop scrolling or you can put your phone in the other room. That's a very, very difficult thing to do when it's an extension of of of yourself and your sense of self. But ultimately you have a volitional choice to cut off that information stream and give yourself solitude and and calm.

S: Yeah.

C: But we we're not trained in that and we don't prioritize it as a culture.

S: Yeah. So I think we really need to divide this up into two questions. Is our, the, the current environment with AI and the Internet and social media everything, is that having a negative neurological effect on us, on our cognitive function? You know, I think the, the, there is no evidence to conclude that it is. And I think if anything, the evidence is going the other way. And if you look just to ask the question, you know, what's happening over time, like over historical time, over decades, people are basically getting a little bit smarter every decade. They, you know they.

C: But their attention spans are getting shorter.

S: Right. But then the other question is how, how are we using our cognitive function? You know, Cara brings up an excellent point about attention, not just about your raw memory. It's about what are you choosing to do with your attention, with your cognitive function? What do you spend your time doing? And I do think it's a good idea to be thoughtful about how you're spending your time, not just going with the flow of what is happening around you. Not only, you know, because of your mood and how it affects you that way, but also, you know, because what you do, you will get good at. If you spend your time engaging with interesting information and thinking about things deeply, you'll get better at that. If you spend your time on the most superficial entertainment, then that's what you're going to be good at.

J: Right, Steve, what if we're spending a lot of time, you know, learning this behavior of being avoidant to the crush of information that's being thrown in us?

S: I think we all need to figure out how to survive in the, in the, in the current, the current, the current information ecosystem. And part of part of what I do, again, I try to be very thoughtful about like what I'm going to do and how I'm going to do it in terms of, you know, reading articles versus, you know, watching the news, listening to the radio, etcetera. And the sources of information that I'm spending my time exposing myself to. But also get, and this gets a little bit back to your original point about like using GPS or whatever. I do, you know, will try to not be entirely reliant on modern technology, not for neurological reasons, but just because I don't want to be completely helpless when the power goes out, you know what I mean? Or when something when the app goes down. So I occasionally will drive places without GPS just to do it, just to exercise my ability to navigate without being told turn for turn what to do. I commit certain phone numbers to memory just so if I don't have access to my, my address book and my phone, I I'm not completely helpless, right? Do you ever have that situation? Whatever your phone's dead or you don't want your phones, you have to borrow somebody else's phone and you realize you don't know a single person's number. Yeah, that's. Crazy man.

E: Oh man, totally right. Age, which all you had was to memorize the number, right?

C: I still don't know my own office line because I've worked in this fellowship for a short, you know, less than a year. To this day, when somebody asked me for my phone number, I have to open my e-mail and look at my signature, right?

S: Yeah, perhaps I made an effort to commit certain numbers to memory.

B: You guys remember dad? Dad was famous for having literally 200 phone numbers on his fingertips, at his fingertips. It was amazing. His memory for phone numbers? Incredible.

C: It is a 0 sum game memory. And yes, some people have more memory capacity than other people. They probably do have, you know, certain increased skills in that area. But when we commit certain things to memory, there is literally less space for other things. That's why we have to connect things to things that are already there. When we have a lot of disparate information, it's really hard to remember it.

S: It's complicated. All right, Cara, tell us about this growing rat problem that we're having in the world's cities.

The Growing Rat Problem (48:44)

• Rat numbers are skyrocketing across US cities — and it's only going to get worse 

C: Yeah, so I came across, I don't know, I always like kind of scrub these different science articles every week thinking about what I'm going to talk about on SG and every so often something kind of quirky, interesting, terrifying would.

E: You say growing rat problem. We're talking about the size of the rats or the size of the problem.

C: We're talking about how much the rats are growing. No? So let's what do you think, Steve? You know the answer to this already. Everyone else, what do you think is the number one variable that seems to be driving growing numbers of rats?

E: Population.

C: Well, the population of the rats.

E: No direct population of. Humans. Oh, OK, So you think the rats go.

C: It's a good, good guess and it's it's up there, not the number one.

E: Poorly stored food.

C: Poorly stored food, I don't even know if that's in the top five, but it's, it's kind of a component of the top five. It's sort of a component of what Evan said, right? Lots.

S: Of people, I'll have to say, I know, I know of the answer you're getting to care. But I have to say, along Bob's line, I've read some very interesting articles that basically saying that the rat population is directly proportional to the food supply. All that's it. They will, they will grow to the food supply. And the only way to really deal with the problem, like in New York City, we go to New York City like you're walking, there's a rat walking down the street next to you. I mean, they have a really bad rat problem, but it's been essentially they will, their population will grow to meet the food supply. And the only way to reduce the the rats is to reduce that food supply.

C: So you're talking about that upper limit?

S: The upper limit of their. Pocket.

C: Yeah. Sort of like how if you put a koi in a pond, it'll grow to the size of the pond or whatever. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But there is, you know that this study that was just recently published in Science, Science advances increasing rat numbers in cities are linked to blank, blank and blank. Really. They did a pretty intense, sophisticated analysis to try and determine what these larger predictors were. And human population was the 3rd. Urbanization was the second. Both of those have direct implications on food supply. The very first dida climate change.

US#05: No, no.

C: Way increasing rat numbers in cities are linked to climate warming, urbanization, and human population. This was a study that was done by a group of urban ecologists. And what they actually did, it's kind of interesting, is they looked at public complaint and inspection data, so people complaining about the rat problem in their city and also data from inspectors. They looked at 16 cities around the world and they used that information to sort of estimate the trends in the rat populations because I don't think anybody actually knows how many rats are in any of these cities. The obviously we have to estimate those numbers and of the 16 cities, 11 of them, so that made-up 69% of them had significant increasing trends in their rat numbers. Only three cities had declines and two cities there was number change. And let's talk about what the researchers found using their sophisticated statistical analysis. So first and foremost, the city with the largest increase across their data set. They looked at a study period, right? But they looked at the kind of before to the after, and here are some interesting takeaways. So like I mentioned, 11 of the 16 cities had significant increases and those increases varied widely in their magnitude. So what city do you think had the largest increase across their kind of test period?

S: New York.

C: Right, everyone thought New York, NY was #3 no, New York was number 4.

E: Mexico City.

C: Washington, DC So.

S: Were they talking about the rodents or the politicians?

C: Yeah, right. It didn't clarify. No. So the the increase, the trend in the rat population in Washington, DC was three times greater than in Boston and 1 1/2 times greater than in New York City. Fascinating. So we saw increases. The five strongest trends were Washington DC, San Francisco, Toronto, New York City, and Amsterdam, and then that was followed by Oakland, Buffalo, Buffalo, Chicago, Boston, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. They looked at New Orleans, where they had a greater decrease. New Orleans, Louisville, and Tokyo all had decreases. New Orleans had the largest decrease, and then Dallas and Saint Louis didn't show any real statistically significant change in their trends. So, so basically they did an analysis, a relative weights analysis to figure out the variance, right? What percentage of the change was attributed to these different variables, these different factors and their weights? It turned out to be that 40.7% of the variation in trend was linked to the mean temperature increase that the city had relative to long term temperature averages. So cities where the temperature went up the most were cities where they had more rats, and there was a pretty strong correlation there. Cities. Yeah, it it it tended to be that way. The larger increase meant larger increases. Larger temperature rise meant larger increases in rat sightings. They also looked at what they called urbanization. It was actually a proxy for that. They they saw what percentage of that area's land was vegetated right? Like how much green was there in the city. And they found that that attributed to about 34.3% of the variance. So cities with less vegetation had greater increase in rats. So more urbanized areas had more rats. Human population density. The weight there was 19.4% and then the rest the smaller variables that they looked at were GDP that was only 3.4% of the variance and mean minimum temperature experienced by a city that was 2.3% of the variance. So it wasn't really that the hottest cities had the most rats, it was that the cities that gained temperature overtime the most had a larger increase in rat populations. And so let's talk about why would rats want to be places where we have greater increases in average air temperatures? Rats activity is constrained by cold temperature, so when it gets colder, the rodents themselves get slower. They remain sheltered for longer, or they might forage for food and then store that food and hang out kind of more latent for longer. And so we see a lot of seasonality when we look at rats at certain latitudes, whereas there's not as much seasonality, sort of ratitudes. Ratatatouille. There's more. Yeah. Don't less kind of seasonality, you know, in Equatorial or tropical or subtropical areas. So there are seasonal kind of cycling in like places like New York City or DC anyway. But we saw that those increases increased when there was a change in average temperature due to climate change. Yeah. And so there is a real fear here because long term climate change is occurring across most of the globe. We also see that it's more intense in cities because cities have something called the urban heat island effect. You know, places where there's a lot of concrete, places where there's not as much green space, we don't have as many sinks for those temperatures. They increase exponentially. They increase significantly more than these more rural areas. And it's not uniform across the globe, right? So as the researchers write, urban areas of northern North America, southern and central Europe, and the Middle East are projected to have faster increases in temperature. And this may lead to cities in these regions experiencing different trends in rat numbers over time, as well as associated human rat conflict. So when we talk about associated human rat conflict, what are we actually talking about? Why do we need to be worried about lots of rats?

S: Disease vectors, yeah.

C: Right. Disease spread, massive disease vectors. Yeah. And then that can be a really good indication of sort of the epidemiologic health of that region. They're almost like the opposite of the Canary in the coal mine, right? Like, if the rats are doing well, I think we need to be careful. But we don't know if these increases are due specifically to lower mortality, if they're actually breeding more, right, like increased fecundity, or if they just have increased foraging opportunity. But it's likely that all of the above are contributing to that due to climate change. The researchers also, you know, they they kind of drill down into why areas that are more vegetated tend to have fewer rats. They also drill down into not just urbanization, but the other ecological impacts and ways that more research along these lines may help us understand how to control rat populations in the future. But yeah, Rats as a proxy is really interesting, But also just increasing Rats has its own comes with its own public health concerns.

S: You know what doesn't work to control rat populations?

C: Cats.

S: Cats, trapping, hunting, none of that works. They will just out, they will out breed any attempt to control their population you have. It's all about the environment generally, which includes temperature, food availability, spaces to nest. You know they will fill the space that's given to them.

C: Yeah, Hygiene I.

E: Always thought you, you know, farms would have cats around to, you know, eat the mice and the rats. Yeah. So.

S: Ships, yeah, on a small scale, that's that's correct.

E: On a city scale, no, they're way.

S: They have way too many places to hide and breed. You cannot. It's like, you know, I lived in Baltimore, right? When you live in Baltimore, one of the skills you learn is cockroach control, right? You have to learn that skill. And you can't just kill them when you see them, you know what I mean? It's like you're just nibbling around the edges there. Yeah, you had. You had.

E: Yeah, you're seeing the very limited.

S: Yeah, you you have to get to the the source like you know, which basically means you have to use poison that they bring back to their nest.

C: And what you also have to do is ensure, just like with mosquito mitigation strategies, you ensure that the places where they're most likely to hang out are not hospitable to them.

S: Right, you can't have breeding locations.

C: Yeah, right. It's just can't.

S: Just have a bug zapper. I mean, it's fine to have a bug zapper on your patio, but that's not going to be population control over mosquitoes.

C: And a lot of this is almost can be thought of as urban hygiene. And urban hygiene includes clearly temperature.

S: Yeah, urban hygiene.

C: So yeah, the cat thing wouldn't work at at a city level anyway, because really, is it, is it OK? It's bad to have lots of rats. It's actually really bad to then have lots of feral cats.

S: Yeah, I think what we should need to do is release millions of feral cats. Into the city. And then when they get out of control, then we're going to release dogs, we're going to release coyotes or dogs into. The city. And then when they get out of control, we'll introduce mountain lions into the city. It was a bug. One of our favorite child yes bugs was.

B: But yes.

S: Like the king, the mice and the cheese.

B: After the mountain. Lion, then the elephants, then the elephants, but. Then to get rid of the elephants, you need the mice. Again, gotta bring the mice back.

C: Don't guys, I wish I could remember.

B: I read about some small country somewhere that has they have it in for the rats to such a degree that they have declared the country rat free, literally rat free. And if if somebody spots a rat, it literally makes the news. It makes the news and they just.

C: Like it's great.

B: I want to find it because I'm still I think I'm skeptical because how is that impossible? But they.

C: Alberta, Canada and the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. Alberta, Canada. Rat Free 01950.

S: That's yeah, but. They all freeze in the winter, so you know.

C: They have a dedicated rat control program.

S: Yeah, I know.

C: They've got propaganda posters saying kill a rat if you see it. They've got Rat patrol agents.

E: Remember the rat catchers from medieval times? Oh yeah, that was a real the rat catchers booming economy.

S: All right, Carol, let me ask you this question.

Do Apes Have a Theory of Mind (1:01:03)

• Do Apes Have a Theory of Mind - NeuroLogica Blog 

S: Do you think that any apes have a theory of mind?

C: I do. Well, first of all, we are apes and we know we do. Non human apes. But I do. I do think so, yeah.

S: So this has actually been a very controversial research question, and let me explain. Yeah, it has been, yeah. Let me explain what a theory of mind is. That is the ability to think about the fact that other people have the ability to think and feel things right. Like, I can imagine what you're thinking that I, I know that you think.

C: You have to know that you think to be able to. It's a precursor to empathy. Like you can't have empathy without theory of mind.

S: Right, right. Yeah, You, if I do something, you will feel something in response. But it's also like strategizing. Like I if I'm going to manipulate your behavior, I have to have some internal model of how your behavior works, right? Which has to do with how you think, what you know, what you don't know, how you feel. Right? It's all theory of mind. People obviously have it and it's been controversial whether or not any non human animal has it. And obviously our closest primate relatives, our closest ape relatives are the ones who would be most likely to have it, right, Unless some other line like unless we think like birds or dolphins or whatever might have a theory of mind. But the the research has focused mainly on apes. When you do, when you do that kind of research right, you cannot read the minds of your subject. You have to infer what's going on inside the mind of a Bonobo or a chimpanzee or a gorilla or whatever, right?

US#05: So.

S: You have to use some kind of a research paradigm, some kind of a construct where you say if they do have a theory of mind and this is what we predict they would behave on this research situation on this test. But that does still doesn't prove that they do it. Just, you know, you the more you do that and it kind of builds up this case that they have a theory of mind, the more likely we think it is. But then there's always different ways to interpret it, right? Nothing is ironclad. So up until now, most of the research, you know, addressing this question has tried to, to answer the question, does the, the study's subject, you know, like a chimpanzee or Bonobo, do they understand that another creature, whether a fellow, a fellow ape or a human researcher, that they know something, that they have some piece of information in their mind. And some of that research has been positive, right? So it has suggested though, that maybe they do have a theory in mind. They seem to act on the belief that another agent has a piece of information, but that has come under question because it's hard to know if they're acting on their own knowledge or their beliefs about the knowledge of the other entity. Right. The other, either human or ape and the research. So what? So now there's a new study. That's OK. So we're going to do something different. We're going to see if the, if the research subjects, the apes have knowledge of another creature's absence of information, not the presence of information about if, right, if they can think about another creature's ignorance. And because that would sort of flip things around a little bit and be harder to to say, well, they're just acting on their own knowledge. Does that make sense? So here's here's the research paradigm. They a lot of behavioral studies with chimpanzees use exploit the fact that chimpanzees are very greedy. They will always go for the treat, right? So the behavior is very predictable. And so that becomes a variable that you can sort of count on in the research design. So this this actually used bonobos which are a type of chimpanzee and the bonobos.

US#02: The best kind?

S: So the the study's subject, the Bonobo, was sitting across a table from a human researcher while another human researcher sat at 90° to those two, right? So they were at another side of the table. Then the the game master, that's the person sitting at right angles to the the subject and the target. They would then hide a treat under one of three cups, right? Doing this, they would do it in front of the person in front of the Bonobo and then wait 5 seconds and then reveal the treat and give it to the Bonobo. So the Bonobo learns that there's a treat under the cup, and then one of the humans will reveal it and give me the treat. Then that was just the setup. That was just like the training phase. Then they introduced a barrier between the human sitting across from the Bonobo and the cups and the Bonobo. So now the human cannot see the cups, but in some of the situations, there's a window in the barrier where they could see the cups. And then in some situations there was there was no window so they could not see the cups, right? So they're setting up a situation where the Bonobo should easily be able to see that the human sitting across from them either knows where the tree is being pushed placed or doesn't know where the the tree is being placed.

C: OK.

S: Right.

C: So they have the ability to see that. Are they guaranteeing that they are attending to that information?

S: Well, I mean, they're sitting right across from them, you know, it's so yeah, I, I don't know if they like, if they were specifically trying to control over, are they attending to. And I think it's they're paying close attention to what's going on with sort.

C: Of so so the the paradigm assumes that the bonobos know yes, either that they were they're asking.

S: To do that, they witnessed whether the human saw where the treat was being placed or not. Then they the the question was in in the condition where the then they then they remove the barrier, right? And the person waits. And then the question is, if the Bonobo thinks the person knows where the treat is, will they behave differently than if they think the person doesn't know where the treat is? And specifically they said the Bonobo. If the Bonobo has a theory of mind in the situation where they know that the human does not know where the treat is, they will try to communicate where the treat is more insistently and more quickly than in the scenarios where they think the person does know where the treat is. And right, does that make sense? So, and, and that's what happened, you know, pretty strongly, like the statistics are pretty, are pretty robust. So the bonobo's were able, like they got very insistent at pointing out where the treat was in the, in the situation where the human did not see where it was placed because they know that that's the human needs to know where the treat is. Otherwise they will not give it to them, they won't get the tree.

C: Whereas like if you had done the exact same experiment but modified it for their height or whatever with a dog, a dog probably would have acted the same way. Like bro there's a treat there bro, give me the treat without.

S: It out without regard exactly without regard to their knowledge of whether or not the person knew that piece of information. So they were able to act on their knowledge of the ignorance of the of the other person in the situation.

C: Awesome.

S: Yeah, which which makes a lot of sense. So The thing is, bonobos hunt cooperatively. They don't, not as much as as chimpanzees do, but they do. And so that's an obvious situation where you might think, yeah, coordinating your activity, you know, among the various, you know, troop members. And especially like being able to think about, oh, like my fellow Bonobo over there doesn't know that the thing that we're hunting is behind the tree or whatever. Like they could change their behavior based upon their theory of mind of the other members of their troop.

C: And, and like, babies don't have theory of mind like this. This is something that's so interesting. Like even kids don't develop it until they're toddlers.

S: Yeah, that cool comes on overtime. They're not born with it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

US#03: So it took. You until you were 20 years old, right?

S: So Jay does have a theory of meatballs, though that that goes back even further. So, you know, the thinking is that again, this makes sense that if you know, our closest relatives would have so at least a a pre or a proto theory of mind. In this case, it might actually be fairly well developed, which was what we find. You know, we clearly humans have some unique cognitive abilities, right? We, we, you know, evolved huge brains, language, etcetera. But the more we research our closest relatives, especially, the more we find that the, the precursors of those abilities were all there already. You know, they didn't just come out of nowhere, which evolutionarily makes total sense, right? We, we had to evolve from something. These abilities did not come out of whole cloth. They, they derived from more primitive versions in our common ancestor with our closest relatives. So not surprising. And again, this is one study. This is not going to put the debate to rest. But this is 1 notch in favor of the conclusion that that bonobos in this case do have a theory of mind. It makes the evidence for that a little bit more robust. We'll see if it replicates. We'll see if it replicates in different setups, you know. Yeah. And I wouldn't be surprised if you also saw it in chimps, if you saw it in orangutans. Absolutely, yeah. All right.

NASA Harassed by Aliens (1:10:52)

• https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/nasa-astronauts-are-harassed-by-125ft-aliens-with-wings-who-peek-into-space-shuttles 

S: Interesting, Evan, is, is NASA being harassed by aliens? Oh.

C: My. God.

E: Well, I guess it depends what kind of articles you read, videos you watch, kind of what we were talking about earlier. How much? Yeah, that's a headline that'll make you spit out your coffee while drinking, right, Bob?

B: Oh, every time.

E: The headline NASA astronauts are harassed by 125 foot tall I guess aliens with wings who peek into space shuttles. Oh boy, that just. Like that gives a whole new meaning to the Fame Inquirer. Boy, a whole new meaning to the famous words of Jim Lovell. Houston. We have a problem, even though it's really Houston. We've had a problem, but that's another story. But you know, Hollywood does things to famous lines and there you have it, so I go. So I went to NASA's website and I looked around and did word searches, you know, for things like, oh, I don't know, 125 foot aliens. Can't seem to find anything there. No reports of astronaut harassments of any kind, and certainly no news concerning or new news concerning space shuttles. You know, those went the way of the dodo 14 years ago. So where did this very legitimate sounding headline come from? It came from a man named Chris Bledsoe, and he said it on his son's podcast, which I won't mention the title here. Sorry, no freebies on the backs of us. But this fellow Chris Bledsoe, let's see, here he is. His credentials are nothing. He's a guy. He's a, well, a very religious guy.

US#03: This guy you know.

E: But Bob, back in 2007, he claims he had a life altering encounter with UFOs. Life altering, really, because this encounter cured him of a debilitating chronic illness and led him to a profound spiritual awakening. He claims he had Crohn's disease and he became cured because he interacted with UFOs at the time. Yeah, lost 4 hours of his memory, right. He cannot account for four hours of time during that day. So that evening. So that's it. And it's he attributes attributes it to that. So Chris Bledsoe decided to become a public speaker and write a book about his experience. And of course, the UFO community welcomed him with open arms because that's what they do. Somewhere along the line since then, he also became a prophet. Because you're going to go into. Yeah, right. Exactly. Because if you're going to go deep into the weird fusion of religion in UFO, it doesn't hurt to start to proclaim things like psychic abilities and superpowers. So why not? Bledsoe has a thing for orbs. UFO orbs, he calls them. And if you dig a little deep into it, one might say he has a fetish for UFO orbs. He loves them. He describes ongoing interactions with these glowing orbs, which he believes are connected to spiritual entities, and he asserts that these orbs have appeared around his property and have been witnessed by others. These glowing orbs are in fact translucent beings from other worlds. And that's there's your very cursory background on the spell of Chris Bledsoe. It kind of helps make sense of the headline a little, makes it a little easier to understand, at least from his perspective. So he's on his podcast, his he and his son basically run a podcast which they talk about UFOs and things. And he was sharing his experiences and he said he was contacted by NASA. He he got involved with, with, with NASA who, who apparently some people there, we don't know exactly who, but he had interactions with them. And during those discussions, he revealed, they revealed to him that astronauts, this is According to him, had experienced extraterrestrial life during their missions. This is back in the days of the space shuttle, and they had been harassed by them, in other words, kind of appearing outside the ship while in orbit and making faces at them and things. That's basically what he's what he said. Yeah. And he was he. Oh, yeah. Bledsoe says he was drafted into the independent government organization, whatever that is, to help them understand what the aliens wanted with them. So basically, help us on, help us understand exactly what it is we were seeing and experiencing. And let's try to make some sense of this. OK. So he told them, yeah, these orbs are supernatural beings that now he has learned to communicate with them. So he has a very special connection with these entities, these orbs. Here's some quotes. He says this is him. Everybody's wondering, how did you get into NASA? Were you there? What were you? What were you? Why were you studying with NASA? When I asked them what? Why you need me? They said, you've, I said to them, you've got rockets, you've got space shuttles, you've got satellites, you've got a space station, all the money and technology and telescopes in the world. And they told him this. According to him, we know that they these orbs, these spirits like you, and they communicate with you and they don't have anything to do with us at all. The people at NASA. And we'd like to know why and what they want. Why are they harassing our astronauts so? He said. I'm consulting with them about what they're now calling a plasmoid, which is an angelic being that come out of these.

US#03: Plasmoid.

E: Plasmoids, right? I kind of.

US#03: Like that word?

E: Yeah. So, you know, OK, these are wild, pretty wild claims. Obviously, obviously he said that these created being, they're made of energy, these, these beings, but they, they get around in a ball of light essentially is how they, I guess, travel around the, the universe or wherever it is they go. And the glowing beings will emerge from these balls. And sometimes they're human size 7-6 or seven feet, 125 feet is apparently the largest one that has been seen or reported to have been seen. And they can mimic anything such as flying saucers, right? And they can divide, 1 orb can become 21, orb can become 100 orbs all of a sudden. Oh my gosh. All right, that's what he claims. So somewhere along his fantastical journey into a life of being entirely unmoored from reality, he apparently also claims that he's discovered how to summon these orbs, summon these UFOs. And he's had gatherings where he's invited people, lots of people, he said to come and witness his ability to do so. However, here's the thing. If you are skeptical, if you are a doubter, you're not going to see it, right? Where have we heard that before? Here and there. The the shy ghost, you know, the shy UFO whenever the skeptic is around. Yep. Chris Bledsoe says you can't see the UFOs he summons if you are skeptical. They wait till you're not looking and then they reveal themselves to only the faithful people who happen to be standing right next to you. So I'll bring Mick W into this discussion because he comes up, which is sort of a back door way in which I found this article because Nick West has been talking about him lately and I'll explain why in a second. And Mick asks a great question. So, OK, even if let's say that the sceptical people there don't see them and that is the case, whatever, then how come everybody who has their cameras and stuff that are constantly recording, nothing shows up on camera ever? Yeah, and Chris Bledsoe has an answer to that, he says. They know your free will and they don't want to go against your free will. Whatever.

C: What does that even mean?

E: I don't. I don't even know what that means, but that is a direct quote.

S: That's what we call Cara vague lame ass special pleading.

E: Yeah, exactly. And and. This, this fella that Chris. Bledsoe, he got he he got some notoriety this week because he took footage of what his son describes I'll just right right there on the on his feed and he had it all over social media. His son said this and all my life, this is the best orb footage I've ever seen. This needs to be spread far and wide for all to see the beauty of these beings. This was footage shot by Chris Bledsoe the other night on February 1st, so just a couple of nights ago, in which he's got his camera pointed to the sky and there it is an orb kind of moving across the sky, moving across, in fact, so perfectly that it lines up and the moon, which is in a Crescent phase, the orb actually crosses across the moon, the face of the moon. So it's very, you know, neat looking visual. And you can, you can obviously, you know, go online and and find it hard to describe on an audio podcast, but that's that's what you see. So what? So what Mick W basically did? He and his, his sleuths that he, you know, works with over the Internet basically to, you know, say where would, where did he take the footage? Because they, they figured out where he was when the footage was recorded. OK. And then what you do is you can use computer software to position yourself on the earth. Look up at the and you can see what the night sky was from your vantage point on anywhere in the Earth on a given day, given time. And what do you think the orb that was crossing across the sky really was instead of the ISS? The ISS that's exactly what it was and he and it's perfect because Mick gives you the exact simulate right the simulation he matches the video footage to the computer modelling and the two are exact they shadow each other perfectly it's an absolute 100% match that what he was seeing was the ISS but there you go that's the best orb footage that they've ever seen and that they've recorded and it turned out to be nothing more than the.

S: ISSI believe that I believe that that was the best orb footage they've ever had.

E: I agree.

S: Now does NASA respond to their them being name name checked?

E: Couldn't find, Nope couldn't find anything from NASA having any comment to make on with Chris Bledsoe directly.

S: Yeah, the only question for me is, is this guy completely lying out his ass or is he, you know, like does he have an actual questionable relationship with reality? This guy that this far down the self diluted rabbit hole. I mean, that's like diagnosable. Like either this guy's diagnosable or he's a lying con artist.

E: Right, fool or fraud, as Randy used to say, there are your choices. Or some combination of the two.

S: Right.

E: How do you know but made headlines this week? And there you have it.

S: Thank you, Evan. Thanks Well everyone, We're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about one of our sponsors this week, Rocket Money.

C: Did you guys know that 85% of people have a paid subscription that they just don't use every month? And I know we've all done this, right? We've signed up for something because we wanted to like use it during the trial period and then we forgot. So the trial period ended. We started getting charged every single month and we didn't even notice that that was happening, but thanks to Rocket Money I can see all my subscriptions in one place and cancel the ones I'm not using anymore.

J: Yeah, the great thing about Rocket Money is that it's really easy to use. I have it set up to send me alerts if any of my bills increase or if anything just seems out of the ordinary.

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E: Cancel your unwanted subscriptions and reach your financial goals faster with Rocket Money. Go to rocketmoney.com/SGU today. That's Rocket money.com/SGU, rocketmoney.com/SGU.

S: All right, guys, let's get back to the show.

Who's That Noisy? + Announcements (1:23:18)

S: All right, Jay, it's who's that noisy time? All right guys, last week I played this noisy.

J: What is that guys?

E: I can name that tune in 12 notes.

J: All right, so I had I arguably, I think this might be the one that had the most guesses.

US#05: Really.

J: Yeah, it was really incredible. Like I had, I counted it was about 320. I think is when I, I, I ran out of time, but could have been more like 350. That's a lot of responses to who's that noisy. So a listener named Ben said this week sounds like a singing Tesla coil, AKA Zusophone. And that is a really good guess. If you listen to people play music using a Tesla coil, there is a lot of similarity between between that sound and what you just heard. Not correct, but that's a good guess, Visto Tutti said. Sounds like a steam train with tuned steam pipes, like an organ, a very musical little engine. Probably a good friend of Thomas. I've never heard that, or I can't remember if I have. So I can't tell you whether it's close or not. But that is a, you know, I think that's a a perfectly cromulent guess. And Michael Blaney wrote in and said, hi, Jay. It sounds like a really early recording of some kind. So I'm guessing it's a recording of a tuba on an early phonograph and that guy's was the number of wrong guesses I got.

E: And I'm not exaggerating.

J: Not exaggerating.

E: That was the whole enchilada right there.

J: So what is that? This is this is, you know, so many people know it, so this isn't going to be a surprise to a lot of people. But the first person to write incorrectly was Bill White's Bill, unbelievable job being that you, you know, you, you blew away that number of people. You got it right. You were first. I'm I'm impressed and I give you 2 SGU points. And then there were two other people of note. Jeremy C got it pretty soon after and they gave a good explanation. So I'm going to read his explanation. And then there was one other person, a listener named Michael, said that his stepson, who's 15, he guessed it correctly. And I'm going to tell you what it is. OK. So what is this thing? This is something that comes out of Lancaster, CA, and it is famously out of tune. Any guesses, guys? It was built. It was built by Honda and was meant to play a song called William Tell Overture.

E: Sure.

J: OK.

E: Carve Overture.

J: No, it's it's actually those rumble strips where they carve grooves in the in the highway you. Drive. Over with your tire. And then what happened with this particular one was that the construction workers actually made a mistake in the spacing of the grooves, which changes the pitch.

US#00: They're fired.

J: And next thing you know, you have something that doesn't really sound like anything. So let me play for you the actual song that they're playing. Because I think, you know, for those of you who don't know what that is, you'll, you'll hear this and then you'll realize just how wrong they got it. And you know what comes next.

Voice-over: Yeah.

J: So listen again. Not even close, guys. I mean not not even close.

US#00: OK, at least.

J: It's and then why wouldn't they fix it? You know, I don't know, maybe it costs a ton of money.

US#00: Yeah, you know, it's like.

J: AI thought that was interesting. So these things exist in many places around the globe, some probably done much better than that. I think I I. Think when I was in Sweden, I I did one of these, but it was a long time ago. Anyway, thank you for all of you who wrote in. I really appreciate it. It was a lot of fun. I will never pick something that obvious again just because it took so long because I read all the emails. You know, I don't want to like not read people's emails. Bottom line is when you drive and you hear music, sometimes it's not a hallucination. I have a new noise for you guys and I'm going to play it for you and I want Bob to pay attention.

US#02: OK.

J: If you think you know what this week's noisy is, or if you've heard something cool, please e-mail me at wtn@theskepticsguide.org. Steve Yeah, somebody.

B: Choking a duck.

J: Right, Bob, you bastard. Few things to to announce real quick. You, you may have heard that Steve is the end of June. Steve's retiring from his medical profession and Steve will be coming to work for the full, you know, full time work at the SGU, which means that we have plans to to do some new shows. There's going to be multiple new things that we're that we're going to be doing. We're working on all of the the pre production stuff right now. And when we when we finalize the details, we will announce what those projects are going to be. But if you want to help, if you think that things are not right in this world, my God, if you feel like you, you appreciate the work that we do. If you like Cara, you know, Cara's very likable. I like her, but seriously, please, please consider supporting the work that we do. It'll definitely help with with Steve's transition. If you could, anything, any, any dollar amount would be welcomed and very much appreciated. We have a lot of work to do, guys. You know, I feel like, you know, the next 10 to 20 years are going to be probably more important than the 1st 20. That said, so you can join our mailing list. You can go to theskepticsguide.org and we have a link there to join our weekly mailing list. You could also give our show a rating on whatever podcast player you're using. I'm pretty sure that people are still checking ratings and making decisions on what they want to listen to. It'll help new people find the podcast. And we have a conference coming up in May, May 15th, 16 and 17. It's called Nauticon 2025. And there it, we have a Beatles theme. Guys, I think you all know this. It's very cool, very excited. We, we finalized the schedule and it is now on the website. If you're curious, we will be adding more, more detailed descriptions on what the different bits are that we're doing. But right now, I think I think you'll, you'll get a kick out of what we have up there. We have really fun stuff that we're doing this year that we didn't do the last time. You know, we're trying to keep it fresh. And not only that, but all of us are very excited, excited because we had such a good time last time. And I'm, I'm really, really happy that we're doing it again. So if you're interested, you can go to nadaconcon.com, right? That's con con.com, nadaconcon.com. Thank you very much, Ian. Or you can go to theskepticsguide.org. We also have links on there. Find out more information, check out our schedule, and we'd love to have you there with us. Thank you, Jay. All right, guys, let's go on with science or fiction.

Science or Fiction (1:31:13)

Theme: None Item #1: Scientists have demonstrated the effectiveness of a medicine that prevents and reverses inguinal hernia. Item #2: Archaeologists have identified 4,000 year old writing that likely represents proto-Indo-Anatolian, the language that gave rise to all Indo-European languages. Item #3: Researchers calculate that the probability of reentering space junk entering busy airspace is about 26% annually.

Answer	Item
Fiction	Archaeologists have identified 4,000 year old writing that likely represents proto-Indo-Anatolian, the language that gave rise to all Indo-European languages.
Science	Scientists have demonstrated the effectiveness of a medicine that prevents and reverses inguinal hernia.
Science	Researchers calculate that the probability of reentering space junk entering busy airspace is about 26% annually.

Host	Result
Steve	win

Rogue	Guess
Jay	Scientists have demonstrated the effectiveness of a medicine that prevents and reverses inguinal hernia.
Evan	Scientists have demonstrated the effectiveness of a medicine that prevents and reverses inguinal hernia.
Bob	Archaeologists have identified 4,000 year old writing that likely represents proto-Indo-Anatolian, the language that gave rise to all Indo-European languages.
Cara	Archaeologists have identified 4,000 year old writing that likely represents proto-Indo-Anatolian, the language that gave rise to all Indo-European languages.

E: It's time for science or fiction.

S: Each week I come up with three Science News items or facts. 2 real, one fake. Now the channel's my panel of skeptics Tell me which one is the fake. Just three regular news items this week. You guys ready? All right, here we go. Item number one, scientists have demonstrated the effectiveness of a medicine that prevents and reverses inguinal hernia. Item number 2 archaeologists have identified 4000 year old writing that likely represents Proto Indo Anatolian, the language that gave rise to all Indo European languages. And item number three, researchers calculate that the probability of re entering space junk entering busy airspace is about 26% annually.

J: Oh boy, that's not good.

S: Jay just volunteered to go first.

J: All right, scientists have demonstrated the effectiveness of a medicine that prevents and reverses inguinal, Inguinal, inguinal.

S: What is that, Steve? A hernia.

US#00: That's one iguana gets a hernia.

J: But why do they call it inguinal?

S: Because that's where it's herniating. The word hernia just means that tissue is going from one body cavity to another body cavity. That's it. This is an inguinal hernia, meaning that usually that abdominal tissue is getting pushed through the inguinal ligament into your testicles.

US#05: What other kinds of hernia are there?

S: There's every kind of hernia. Anytime.

US#05: None. Worse. Than that neuronal hernias.

S: Yeah, there are there, there are neurological hernias. You can have tonsillar hernia where the the very bottom of your brain herniates down through the skull. That's.

US#05: What stop?

S: That's usually deadly. That's usually fatal. You can have an uncle hernia Where where it you get basically that's more like the middle of the brain herniating medially. Those are the two big ones, Uncle and Tonsilla. Tonsilla is the deadly one. They're all bad. I mean, if you're herniating your brain, that's bad.

J: Yeah. You're toast.

S: Yeah.

J: All right, so, Steve, yeah, the, the claim here is that there's a medicine that can prevent and reverse a testicular hernia, which I find to be like, you know, I can't imagine how a medicine would reverse that tissue from entering your testicles. Can I say that on this podcast?

S: Testicles. Sure.

J: Okay, I mean, wow, that's a huge claim. You know, I'm not a medical doctor, I am not one by trade. I I just can't, I can't understand how medicine could help something like that, but I'm going to go on. So archaeologists have identified 4000 year old writing that likely represents Proto Indo Anatolian. That's a cool name. Anatolian. This is the language that gave rise to all Indo European languages. OK, so this means basically what you're saying here is they found they found writings that predate this language. So it was like the the early version of of Anatolian. That's really cool. So I think if anything's wrong with this, it's going to be the number 4000. And I for some reason I'm, I'm thinking like, how long did we have? OK, it's too, it's complicated because there's lots of different things I think I'd need to know in order to very smartly answer that. I'm going to move on to the next one. Researchers calculate that the probability of re entering space junk, entering busy airspace is about 26% annually. So Steve, when you say re entering what, what, what exactly are you talking about there?

S: I mean, come on, that's pretty self-explanatory. Space junk.

J: Meaning the space junk is coming down into into the atmosphere.

S: Yeah.

J: Enter entering busy airspace.

S: Yeah, it's coming from orbit to where we're our planes are flying.

J: Oh, see, I that's I don't I can't be the only person here that didn't fully understand that. Yeah, OK, 26% annually that wow, that's a lot right out of the gate. My guts saying like, no way, that's too dangerous. I mean, hold on a second. You know, you could, you could say that that airspace is what, like 30 to 45,000 feet. The the globe is huge. It is a huge place, you know, and you know, air travel is happening largely in these, in these particular areas. It's not going like, you know, like basically if you look at a globe, a lot of it is ocean that that people are not flying airplanes through largely. I don't know, man, that's, that seems like a lot though. That's what that's kind of scary. So I'm going to say this. I'm going to say that I have no reason to not believe that the Anatolian there was a proto language there. I think that's cool. And I find that one just to be easy to understand and that it seems very likely. This airspace 1 is bothering me because it's scary, but I don't know about medicine preventing and reversing a hernia. How could it possibly do that? They have to do surgery to fix things like that. I'm going to say that one is the fiction. OK, Evan.

E: I thought hernias could only be fixed with surgeries. I didn't realize medicine can prevent and reverse both prevent and reverse medicine. No surgery is that's what we're saying here, Steve, right. No surgery does I mean define medicine. We're talking non surgical a drug. OK, that, that does seem fantastic. And I'm also leaning towards that one being the fiction. I've no idea about the writing, the 4000 year old writing, no clue on that one wouldn't even know really where to begin with that. I know nothing of it. And then the other one though, oh boy, the space junk entering busy airspace at 26% annually. That seems very, that seems high. At the same time, there's a lot of space junk and a lot of it's, you know, most of it's small, I think. I mean, so the fact that the junk is entering the airspace, I mean, it could be small enough, I suppose, to not have an impact directly or be a direct threat. So maybe I'll just go with Jay. I think the one with the hernia is too fantastical.

B: OK, Bob. Yeah, the Hernia 1's too fantastical, but but I think there's something funky there and Steve's just trying to get us with that. So that's that's kind of too obvious. Unless, of course, that's what he wants me to think. I'm going to say that's that's. Too obvious the the space junk entering 26% sounds like a lot, but I mean how? I mean entering busy airspace. I mean low enough altitude they're not that it's not burned up before it gets to that altitude. Also, I think if we found out, I suspect that if we knew what the probability of a plane hitting one, it would be pretty dramatically low. What's what's kind of bugging me is this proto proto window Anatolian 2000 BC just doesn't seem far enough in the past to have the the the one you know the mother tongue for Indo European languages. I think it would be farther in the past, so maybe it's that one. So I'll just say that's fiction. OK.

S: And Cara.

C: You know, it's funny because I think I misread I I was going to go with the guys before Bob because I think I completely misread the Archaeologist 1 and read that as 4000 BCE. No, it's. But now they're saying. It's 4000 years old. It's 2000 BCE. I'm like, I might be going with Bob on this. The medicine one is hard for me, but if I know anything about a hernia and, and I actually don't know much about a hernia, but I, I, I think about it the same way. I think kind of about like aneurysm. Like I think the reason that things push into places where they're not supposed to be or they balloon out or they, you know, kind of shift is because there's a weak spot. And So what if there was a medication that actually strengthened that potential weakness? Then that would prevent it. Or.

B: Maybe how about fix it?

C: Oh, if it, if it made that weak spot strong, then it's just a, it's a physics problem, right? Push it back in. So I don't know. I don't know. That's the only way I could think of a medicine working on this because otherwise, you're right, it would have to be surgical. And, and that's why I was thinking prevent and reverse. I don't know. It has to do something to do with the weakness. Yeah, Yeah, it's annoying. The space junk one. It's funny because I didn't even think about like I was thinking busy airspace in terms of like where on the planet there's busy airspace, but like all of the planet is probably relatively busy airspace. It's more like, yeah, like how far away from the surface of the Earth doesn't make it to. So I maybe just to make things interesting, I think I'm going to go with Bob and I'm going to say because I I thought that we had written. Language. From like 3 or 4000 BCE. So yeah, this feels like it's not old enough. So I think I'm going to go with.

B: That GWB.

S: OK, so you all agree on the third one, so we'll start there. Researchers calculate that the probability of re entering space junk, entering busy airspace is about 26% annually. You all think this one is science and this one is science? This is science, Yeah. There's a lot of stuff coming down basically.

E: And what goes up? There's a lot of stuff up there.

S: There's a lot of stuff up there. So this is busy, busy areas of airspace such as such as that founded the Northeastern United States, Northern Europe, around major cities, etcetera. 26% per year that space junk will be you know landing through that area. That doesn't mean that that's how the probability of it hitting an airplane, that is about one in 4500 per year, but still it could be disruptive. Even if it doesn't directly hit a plane, it could still be incredibly disruptive. This is going to be an increasing problem. There are they say 22,300 rocket bodies. These are not satellites. These are just rocket bodies already in orbit and will eventually re enter in an uncontrolled manner. That's a lot of space junk. And these are big. These are not like little things. These are big enough that they would cause damage, right? Because when you think about it, unless it's designed to self deorbit, like soon after putting up a satellite, if a rocket is putting a satellite into orbit, that rocket is also in orbit, right? Unless it then like it released the satellite and then it deorbits. But then it's so there, there are regulations to force companies that are launching satellites into orbit to, to do that, basically you have to get your rockets out of orbit. You can't leave them up there. You have to have a controlled reentry, you know, ditch it in, I forget what it's called. Like there's a part of the Pacific Ocean that's the farthest away from anything. So put it there, you know, have a ditch in the ocean there where it's not near anything. OK, let's go backwards. Go to #2 Archaeologists have identified 4000 year old writing that likely represents Proto Indo Anatolian, the language that gave rise to all Indo European languages. Bob and Cara, you think this one is a fiction? Jay and Evan, you think this one is science? So Cara thinks that we should have older writing. We do. But I didn't say this was the older writing. The oldest writing. The oldest writing is 3200 BCE or 5200 years ago. That was Sumerian. That was cuneiform writing. But it was that. Was that Proto Indo European though, or Proto Indo Anatolian? Or was it something else? That's the question.

E: Yes, let's end next week when we read the answer.

S: This one is the fiction, yeah.

C: Baby. Yeah, Bob.

S: They did not identify Proto Indo Anatolian writing. What they did do is they they identified the genetic population that was likely the population that spoke Proto Indo Anatolian.

E: That's what I was. Thinking yeah, not at all.

S: Not the actual writing itself. Yeah, that's what that was the switch that I made. So the genetic origin of the Indo Europeans, they found that a with a group of a a genetic population, they're calling the Caucasus lower Volga, the CLV. And that they they demonstrated that they, you know, this group gave was related to all groups that spoke, you know, Indo European languages. They traced them back and they lived somewhere between 4400 BCE and 4000 BCE. So I also changed the the year I wanted to I wanted to make sure it wasn't older than the oldest writing that we had. OK.

E: Why would you lie to me and.

S: Jake Yeah, I know because I'm a bad person. This means that scientists have demonstrated the effectiveness of a medicine that prevents and reverses Anglital hernia is science. And yeah, it's very. I thought like, that is damn strange, you know, because it is. You would think that you would require surgery because this is an anatomical problem. Anatomical problems usually have anatomical fixes. Two things. First of all, this was a study in mice, but they say that it should work in people. But of course it needs to be studied in people, but it should work. So what's happening is Cara pretty much hit it on on the nose. The we know that, you know, inguinal hernias happened because of a weakness in the inguinal ligament. That weakness is there because when the testicles descend, they have to go through it, leaving a pathway, right? That's why it doesn't happen in women. It does, but it's like there's for everyone that happens in women. There are 45 that happened in men to men are way more likely to get it. It's because we have testicles. That's why, but it also is related to a genetics. And what happens is that the, that the, the muscles that hold that whole thing together, they start to, they get weakened and form scar tissue because of an estrogen receptor alpha ESR one. And they, they, so they used an estrogen blocking drug, one that's already approved for other purposes, say, well, maybe this will in, you know, the mice who have inguinal hernia, if it blocks the estrogen receptor, then that muscle tissue, the connective tissue will repair itself. And that might even reverse. Not only will it prevent a hernia, it may even reverse it. And it did, it actually reversed the hernia because you know, if the, if the connective tissue repairs itself, there you go. That's.

C: Amazing.

S: Yeah, so about 50% of men will get an angle and hernia by age 75.

C: What?

S: 50 Yeah. Wait. What? So yes, I'm really looking forward to this getting approval and people for this treatment before I hit the age or I'm likely to have it because that, yeah, that kind of surgery, whenever you're doing surgery in order to repair like connective tissue so that it works, you know, so it keeps things where it's supposed to be. It's always dodgy. It's always tricky, you know?

US#02: Yeah. Well, don't tell me that when I'm going into the knife. That's going to be fine, Bob.

S: Everyone does, and about 10% of people who have the surgery, the hernia recurs.

E: Great.

US#02: To hell, man.

E: All right, medicine.

C: Yeah, medicine.

S: Medicine. So hopefully this will all work out in people, but now if you're a mouse with a hernia, you're good.

E: Yeah, right. Lucky mice.

S: Unless.

US#05: You're on some of those islands, then you're already dead.

S: The.

US#05: Kids dead.

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:47:22)

"The most important thing that illusions can teach us is that it is possible, at least some of the time, to find in being wrong a deeper satisfaction than we would have found being right.”  – ― Kathryn Schulz, Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error, (description of author)

S: All right, Evan, give us a quote.

E: The most important thing that illusions can teach us is that it's possible, at least some of the time, to find being wrong a deeper satisfaction than we would have found being right. That was written by Katherine Schultz, who's the author of the book Being Wrong Adventures in the Margin of Error.

S: Yeah, celebrating being wrong is man, is a good thing.

E: Yep. Learning from being wrong How often do we learn from being wrong? Quite a bit.

S: All right. Well, thank you all for joining me this week.

C: Thanks, Steve.

S: Thank you and until next week, this is your Skeptics Guide to the Universe.