SGU Episode 899

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SGU Episode 899
October 1st 2022
Artist depiction of a nuclear rocket
SGU 898                      SGU 900
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Guest
TD: Tim Dodd, American science communicator
Quote of the Week
This job is a great scientific adventure. But it's also a great human adventure. Mankind has made giant steps forward. However, what we know is really very little compared to what we still have to know.
Fabiola Gianotti, Italian experimental particle physicist
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction, Hurricane Ian, new SGU Book

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

[00:12.920 --> 00:18.680] Today is Saturday, September 24th, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.

[00:18.680 --> 00:20.240] Joining me this week are Bob Novella.

[00:20.240 --> 00:21.240] Hey, everybody.

[00:21.240 --> 00:22.240] Kara Santamaria.

[00:22.240 --> 00:23.240] Howdy.

[00:23.240 --> 00:24.240] Jay Novella.

[00:24.240 --> 00:25.240] Hey, guys.

[00:25.240 --> 00:26.240] And Evan Bernstein.

[00:26.240 --> 00:27.240] Good evening, everyone.

[00:27.240 --> 00:31.120] We are recording this episode live in SGU Studios.

[00:31.120 --> 00:37.600] Kara is joining us remotely from Florida, battening down the hatches while a hurricane

[00:37.600 --> 00:39.080] is bearing down on her.

[00:39.080 --> 00:40.240] How are you doing down there, Kara?

[00:40.240 --> 00:45.480] Well, it's not here yet, but I'm supposed to go home to LA next Thursday, and then I

[00:45.480 --> 00:49.400] just found out right after I booked the tickets that we're quite probably going to be hit

[00:49.400 --> 00:52.560] with a category three hurricane on Wednesday.

[00:52.560 --> 00:54.080] It'll be my first ever.

[00:54.080 --> 01:00.880] So I did tornadoes in Texas, earthquakes in California, hurricanes now in Florida.

[01:00.880 --> 01:02.680] Just need to move on to an active volcano.

[01:02.680 --> 01:03.680] Yeah, there you go.

[01:03.680 --> 01:07.960] Now, Kara, you know according to Florida rules, you need to be mowing your lawn when that

[01:07.960 --> 01:10.000] hurricane hits, right?

[01:10.000 --> 01:14.160] You need to be outside doing something as if there's no danger.

[01:14.160 --> 01:16.560] Right, and my cow needs to be untrimmed.

[01:16.560 --> 01:17.560] Right.

[01:17.560 --> 01:21.440] Because the low pressure of the system raises the grass a little straighter, makes it easier

[01:21.440 --> 01:22.440] to cut.

[01:22.440 --> 01:23.680] So I mean, it's kind of an obvious move.

[01:23.680 --> 01:28.520] Now, NASA is still planning on launching Artemis on Tuesday.

[01:28.520 --> 01:29.520] Did they finally scrub it?

[01:29.520 --> 01:30.520] That's so not going to happen.

[01:30.520 --> 01:31.520] Oh, yeah.

[01:31.520 --> 01:34.640] Well, they like to wait till the last minute because sometimes these things zig instead

[01:34.640 --> 01:38.560] of zag, and they don't want to miss their window, but I guess the latest update is they

[01:38.560 --> 01:39.560] just scrubbed it.

[01:39.560 --> 01:40.560] Not surprising.

[01:40.560 --> 01:42.280] I thought that was a little bit of wishful thinking.

[01:42.280 --> 01:46.360] So part of the reason why we are recording this episode, and there'll be another episode

[01:46.360 --> 01:51.680] that we're recording as part of a live stream, is because our second book, The Skeptic's

[01:51.680 --> 01:58.440] Guide to the Future, is coming out in just three days on September 27th.

[01:58.440 --> 02:03.060] So this book is The Skeptic's Guide to the Future, but Bob Jay and I wrote this one.

[02:03.060 --> 02:09.560] This was a ton of fun to research, to talk about, to design, figure out what goes into

[02:09.560 --> 02:11.200] it, to write.

[02:11.200 --> 02:13.560] We've already had a few interviews about it.

[02:13.560 --> 02:16.320] It's super fun to talk about.

[02:16.320 --> 02:22.680] Really what we do in this book is we go through first the history of futurism, right?

[02:22.680 --> 02:28.600] So previous attempts at predicting the future and how did they do, what did they get wrong,

[02:28.600 --> 02:31.160] what patterns of wrongness are there?

[02:31.160 --> 02:36.080] We talk about futurism fallacies, the common mistakes that futurists make over and over

[02:36.080 --> 02:37.080] again.

[02:37.080 --> 02:40.760] We looked a little bit into futurism as an academic discipline to see what they're saying

[02:40.760 --> 02:42.480] there, et cetera.

[02:42.480 --> 02:48.040] And then the meat of the book is we talk about the cutting edge technologies, where they're

[02:48.040 --> 02:53.200] coming from, where they are now, and then we try to extrapolate them into the future,

[02:53.200 --> 02:59.200] the near future, the medium future, and then the distant future when those technologies

[02:59.200 --> 03:00.680] are fully mature.

[03:00.680 --> 03:04.240] What is the ultimate potential of these technologies?

[03:04.240 --> 03:05.320] We had fun.

[03:05.320 --> 03:10.400] That was the fun part because when we discussed what is this technology going to look like

[03:10.400 --> 03:15.960] fifty, a hundred, a thousand years from now, then we took the opportunity to write some

[03:15.960 --> 03:21.360] science fiction to illustrate that technology in use, which I thought came out really well.

[03:21.360 --> 03:27.640] That was a ton of fun discussing what that could look like in use.

[03:27.640 --> 03:28.640] We call them vignettes.

[03:28.640 --> 03:30.720] They're not even really a full short story.

[03:30.720 --> 03:33.400] It's just a glimpse of the future.

[03:33.400 --> 03:38.400] And they bring into lots of different technologies that we had just discussed or that we're about

[03:38.400 --> 03:39.400] to discuss in the book.

[03:39.400 --> 03:42.440] So it's not just one tech, but a bunch of them all in one story.

[03:42.440 --> 03:45.800] And that, of course, is one of the main themes of the book.

[03:45.800 --> 03:50.720] One of the futurism fallacies is to think that how will this one technology look in

[03:50.720 --> 03:51.720] the future?

[03:51.720 --> 03:56.120] But you can't think about it that way because by the time you get to that point that you're

[03:56.120 --> 04:00.720] talking about, all other technologies will have been advancing in the background.

[04:00.720 --> 04:06.260] So I say, well, what will fusion power look like in fifty years?

[04:06.260 --> 04:10.360] You can't talk about that without also talking about what solar power is going to look like

[04:10.360 --> 04:15.160] in fifty years and all other sources of energy because it's always going to be compared to

[04:15.160 --> 04:17.480] all of the other options.

[04:17.480 --> 04:22.880] Or if we talk a lot about space travel and we think, oh, by the time we get, you know,

[04:22.880 --> 04:27.400] here are the problems that we'll be facing with spending a lot of time in space or interstellar

[04:27.400 --> 04:28.400] travel.

[04:28.400 --> 04:31.760] Yeah, but by the time we get that, we might be cyborgs.

[04:31.760 --> 04:32.760] We probably will be.

[04:32.760 --> 04:34.340] We'll be genetically engineered.

[04:34.340 --> 04:38.280] We may just, you know, transfer into a robot for the trip, you know, or whatever.

[04:38.280 --> 04:40.680] Like you have to think about all the other things that are happening.

[04:40.680 --> 04:41.680] It's not going to be us.

[04:41.680 --> 04:42.680] Right.

[04:42.680 --> 04:43.680] Right.

[04:43.680 --> 04:44.680] It's not going to be us in the future.

[04:44.680 --> 04:45.680] That's what we want.

[04:45.680 --> 04:46.680] We want to imagine us in the future.

[04:46.680 --> 04:47.680] But that's not what's going to be happening.

[04:47.680 --> 04:52.200] And if you look at previous predictions of the future and futurists, that's a classic

[04:52.200 --> 04:53.200] mistake.

[04:53.200 --> 04:57.440] They take themselves, their culture, and they just put it, plop it into place with this

[04:57.440 --> 04:58.880] new fancy technology.

[04:58.880 --> 05:01.800] And that's a classic mistake that you see over and over and over.

[05:01.800 --> 05:02.800] Right.

[05:02.800 --> 05:06.400] Because part of, quote unquote, predicting the future is thinking about how people are

[05:06.400 --> 05:08.240] going to interact with that technology.

[05:08.240 --> 05:11.660] And again, we imagine how we're going to interact with that technology.

[05:11.660 --> 05:14.600] But I think we're living at a very interesting time.

[05:14.600 --> 05:21.480] Probably our generation, maybe more than any other generation, has a firsthand example of,

[05:21.480 --> 05:27.040] like for those of us who have kids, like our kids have a different relationship with technology

[05:27.040 --> 05:28.040] than we do.

[05:28.040 --> 05:29.040] Oh my gosh.

[05:29.040 --> 05:30.040] Right.

[05:30.040 --> 05:31.040] They use social media.

[05:31.040 --> 05:32.040] They use their smartphone.

[05:32.040 --> 05:34.280] They think about these things differently than we do.

[05:34.280 --> 05:37.000] They think about it differently.

[05:37.000 --> 05:38.720] They prioritize different things.

[05:38.720 --> 05:43.760] My daughters rarely, if ever, use their phone as a phone.

[05:43.760 --> 05:46.360] It's not really a phone for them.

[05:46.360 --> 05:51.840] They use it way more to text or to communicate on certain social media apps or whatever.

[05:51.840 --> 05:52.840] Wait, Steve.

[05:52.840 --> 05:53.840] Do you use your phone?

[05:53.840 --> 05:54.840] You make phone calls?

[05:54.840 --> 05:55.840] Yes.

[05:55.840 --> 05:56.840] Yeah.

[05:56.840 --> 05:57.840] Yeah.

[05:57.840 --> 05:58.840] What?

[05:58.840 --> 06:02.480] Actually, I was telling Rachel, when I was her age, I had two means of communicating

[06:02.480 --> 06:03.480] with people.

[06:03.480 --> 06:06.520] I wrote them a letter or I picked up a phone and called them.

[06:06.520 --> 06:07.520] And that was it.

[06:07.520 --> 06:08.520] Or you met them in person.

[06:08.520 --> 06:09.520] Yeah.

[06:09.520 --> 06:10.520] That sucked.

[06:10.520 --> 06:11.520] Or you met them in person.

[06:11.520 --> 06:14.440] But short of that, because I moved around the country a lot, I had to want to communicate

[06:14.440 --> 06:15.440] with my friends.

[06:15.440 --> 06:16.680] So we talked about how that happened.

[06:16.680 --> 06:22.360] I said, I wrote letters and made phone calls that cost $15 for 30 minutes.

[06:22.360 --> 06:24.160] That's how you communicated with people across the country.

[06:24.160 --> 06:25.160] That was it.

[06:25.160 --> 06:28.040] And I remember worrying about the cost of making a phone call.

[06:28.040 --> 06:29.040] Absolutely.

[06:29.040 --> 06:32.160] You had to call it off-peak hours so that you wouldn't get charged the prime rate, because

[06:32.160 --> 06:38.080] my parents would kill me if they found out I ran up a $50 phone bill for a call to my

[06:38.080 --> 06:40.040] friend back at the other side of the country.

[06:40.040 --> 06:44.560] I think Steve's a little bit anomalous, though, because I definitely use my phone a lot.

[06:44.560 --> 06:47.560] And I definitely don't use it mostly for making phone calls.

[06:47.560 --> 06:50.800] There's just so much other stuff, the obvious stuff that I do.

[06:50.800 --> 06:51.800] Oh, yeah.

[06:51.800 --> 06:57.240] I mean, a smartphone is probably the phone app is one of the least used aspects of it.

[06:57.240 --> 06:58.240] Absolutely.

[06:58.240 --> 07:00.240] My smartphone is my handheld computer.

[07:00.240 --> 07:01.240] That's not my point.

[07:01.240 --> 07:02.960] If it disappeared, could we get by without it?

[07:02.960 --> 07:04.840] I do call and accept phone calls.

[07:04.840 --> 07:06.160] It is still my phone.

[07:06.160 --> 07:08.480] My daughters, they turned off their ringer.

[07:08.480 --> 07:11.600] They don't use it at all as a phone.

[07:11.600 --> 07:17.440] My phone is on silent with no notifications ever for my mental health, but I'm curious.

[07:17.440 --> 07:21.120] So the only time I ever talk on the phone, and I guess that's changed a little since

[07:21.120 --> 07:26.000] I've been in Florida without a car, but in California, the only time I would have conversations

[07:26.000 --> 07:28.920] was when I was driving long distances.

[07:28.920 --> 07:30.760] Does anybody else have that same vibe?

[07:30.760 --> 07:32.640] The only time I talk to people is in the car.

[07:32.640 --> 07:36.000] That's not the only time, but that's definitely a huge opportunity because you're just sitting

[07:36.000 --> 07:42.480] there doing nothing, and you could talk to people now that it's easy when you route the

[07:42.480 --> 07:44.640] phone through your car so you're not holding it.

[07:44.640 --> 07:47.320] Where are you talking to people, then, if you're not on the phone?

[07:47.320 --> 07:50.320] Are you not having conversations?

[07:50.320 --> 07:54.720] Just communicating virtual time, yeah, with texts and emails and whatever.

[07:54.720 --> 07:57.800] I'm definitely more of a phone talker than a texter.

[07:57.800 --> 08:05.840] And then if I'm missing somebody and we want to have quality time together, then we FaceTime.

[08:05.840 --> 08:11.320] Well I primarily use my phone to get angry at the internet, I think, if I summarize my

[08:11.320 --> 08:12.320] interaction.

[08:12.320 --> 08:14.240] She's an angry old Facebook man.

[08:14.240 --> 08:17.840] I am pissed off at basically everybody that uses social media.

[08:17.840 --> 08:21.600] I log in and I'm instantly furious with what I see.

[08:21.600 --> 08:28.860] But this is a classic sort of futurism fallacy, again, in that past futurists pretty much

[08:28.860 --> 08:36.400] unanimously imagined that in the future, the amorphous future, when the technology existed,

[08:36.400 --> 08:39.720] people will video call, right?

[08:39.720 --> 08:40.840] And now we have...

[08:40.840 --> 08:41.840] We assumed it.

[08:41.840 --> 08:47.560] Even we did years ago, 30 years ago, that was the obvious next step for phones.

[08:47.560 --> 08:56.040] So we have, now we have, you could video call, audio call, or text, and people prefer texting

[08:56.040 --> 08:57.920] to audio and audio to video.

[08:57.920 --> 09:01.360] It's the exact opposite of what everyone predicted prior to...

[09:01.360 --> 09:04.160] Or, I mean, I think they all have different uses.

[09:04.160 --> 09:05.160] But that's the thing.

[09:05.160 --> 09:09.780] Until you put a technology in the hands of billions of people and see how they use it,

[09:09.780 --> 09:12.080] it's hard to predict.

[09:12.080 --> 09:17.320] Most futurists think we're going to use future technology like we use current technology.

[09:17.320 --> 09:19.560] So here's another fun example.

[09:19.560 --> 09:26.480] When commercial airplane travel was first, first becoming a thing, futurists imagined

[09:26.480 --> 09:31.280] that it would evolve into these gigantic luxury airplanes.

[09:31.280 --> 09:32.280] Flying hotels almost.

[09:32.280 --> 09:34.320] They were flying cruise ships, right?

[09:34.320 --> 09:35.620] Right, like luxury liners.

[09:35.620 --> 09:38.360] They were like luxury liners in the air.

[09:38.360 --> 09:45.080] That is how they were imagined because they assumed that the use and priorities, it's

[09:45.080 --> 09:50.600] all about luxury, right, would hold true even to, would translate to this new technology.

[09:50.600 --> 09:54.720] And they didn't anticipate, like, no, people are going to want to get there fast and cheap.

[09:54.720 --> 10:03.320] And now we've gone so far the other direction where we're crammed into these tiny seats.

[10:03.320 --> 10:07.720] And you could pay through the nose for a first class seat where you get a slightly bigger

[10:07.720 --> 10:08.720] seat.

[10:08.720 --> 10:09.720] Makes a difference.

[10:09.720 --> 10:13.840] Or lots of other airlines, lots of other airlines I've seen where you can go super ultra mega

[10:13.840 --> 10:20.760] first class where you literally get a TV this big, a little room, and a foot rub.

[10:20.760 --> 10:24.960] Somebody comes in and gives you a foot rub, but you're spending $40,000.

[10:24.960 --> 10:26.920] How many people are going to really do that?

[10:26.920 --> 10:32.080] And Bob, even that's nothing compared to the luxury liners that they imagined where it

[10:32.080 --> 10:36.080] was like you're living in a hotel while you're on the plane.

[10:36.080 --> 10:37.080] Completely different.

[10:37.080 --> 10:38.080] Yeah.

[10:38.080 --> 10:41.080] Kara, have you ever called the remote control the clicker?

[10:41.080 --> 10:42.080] I have.

[10:42.080 --> 10:43.080] Okay.

[10:43.080 --> 10:44.080] Yeah.

[10:44.080 --> 10:45.080] I have.

[10:45.080 --> 10:46.080] Yeah.

[10:46.080 --> 10:47.080] To the original remote device.

[10:47.080 --> 10:48.080] That's what it was tethered.

[10:48.080 --> 10:49.080] Which made a click noise.

[10:49.080 --> 10:50.080] No, no, no.

[10:50.080 --> 10:51.080] Yeah.

[10:51.080 --> 10:52.080] You would make a literal clicking sound.

[10:52.080 --> 10:53.080] The frequency, right.

[10:53.080 --> 10:57.720] When you hit the button, it would hit a, like, tuning fork rod, which would vibrate at a

[10:57.720 --> 11:01.920] specific frequency, and the TV would respond to that frequency.

[11:01.920 --> 11:03.640] So you had, like, three or four controls.

[11:03.640 --> 11:04.640] Three buttons.

[11:04.640 --> 11:05.640] That's it.

[11:05.640 --> 11:09.240] Yeah, like three or four buttons, like volume, you know, up, down, channel, up, down, on,

[11:09.240 --> 11:10.240] off.

[11:10.240 --> 11:11.240] That's it.

[11:11.240 --> 11:12.240] That's it.

[11:12.240 --> 11:14.560] Yeah, so people still call it the clicker.

[11:14.560 --> 11:15.560] We also still say tape.

[11:15.560 --> 11:17.120] Like, we're going to tape something.

[11:17.120 --> 11:18.120] Right.

[11:18.120 --> 11:19.120] Yeah.

[11:19.120 --> 11:20.120] When tape is nowhere in the loop anymore.

[11:20.120 --> 11:23.480] But they make it, those things, people understand what they mean.

[11:23.480 --> 11:24.480] Yeah.

[11:24.480 --> 11:25.480] Yeah.

[11:25.480 --> 11:26.480] Yeah.

[11:26.480 --> 11:29.800] And, you know, I promise all of you that are young, you'll feel old one day, too.

[11:29.800 --> 11:33.720] Whatever you think is normal now, it won't be in 30 years, and you'll be doing the same

[11:33.720 --> 11:34.720] thing.

[11:34.720 --> 11:35.720] Goddammit.

[11:35.720 --> 11:39.400] And it will probably just speed up.

[11:39.400 --> 11:40.400] Yeah.

[11:40.400 --> 11:41.400] Oh, gosh.

[11:41.400 --> 11:47.680] A 25-year-old and a 20-year and a 20-year-old might find, see dramatic differences as the

[11:47.680 --> 11:53.040] pace of increase, you know, accelerates, as it probably will.

[11:53.040 --> 11:56.960] And we're just skimming the surface of this book.

[11:56.960 --> 12:01.300] The third section of the book goes into science fiction technology.

[12:01.300 --> 12:06.560] So we go beyond actual technology where, like, the roots of it, even if, like, the beginnings

[12:06.560 --> 12:12.340] of it already exist, even if it's just a proof of concept or a theory at this point.

[12:12.340 --> 12:18.560] And then we just talk about crazy sci-fi tech and discuss, like, is this even possible?

[12:18.560 --> 12:20.360] Like lightsabers, you know, things like that.

[12:20.360 --> 12:21.360] Anti-gravity.

[12:21.360 --> 12:25.240] Is it even possible that we could possibly make a lightsaber?

[12:25.240 --> 12:26.440] And what would that be like?

[12:26.440 --> 12:31.240] And can you think about it, like, by the time, if you could make a lightsaber, that technology

[12:31.240 --> 12:33.720] would be useful for so many other things.

[12:33.720 --> 12:35.320] It would be so powerful.

[12:35.320 --> 12:36.320] That power source.

[12:36.320 --> 12:37.320] It would be a game changer.

[12:37.320 --> 12:39.920] I could plug that into my building and run my building off of that.

[12:39.920 --> 12:40.920] Yeah, right.

[12:40.920 --> 12:41.920] Exactly.

[12:41.920 --> 12:47.080] That's like the transporter, you know, like in Star Trek, you know, like, that one invention

[12:47.080 --> 12:48.080] would change reality.

[12:48.080 --> 12:50.680] It would change everybody's life.

[12:50.680 --> 12:53.320] In ways that, you know, would be impossible to predict.

[12:53.320 --> 12:54.320] Yeah.

[12:54.320 --> 12:58.200] Or my favorite, and we go into this in the book, the holodeck.

[12:58.200 --> 13:03.640] If you could do that, why would you confine that to one little room, right?

[13:03.640 --> 13:08.120] Why wouldn't the whole ship be a holodeck, right?

[13:08.120 --> 13:13.480] It would configure itself as needed to whatever functionality you needed anywhere on the ship,

[13:13.480 --> 13:18.240] except, you know, with the only exception of intricate machines that it couldn't make.

[13:18.240 --> 13:20.080] Assuming you had limitless power at your disposal.

[13:20.080 --> 13:22.680] Every room would become a room of requirement.

[13:22.680 --> 13:23.680] Yeah.

[13:23.680 --> 13:24.680] Basically.

[13:24.680 --> 13:25.680] Yeah.

[13:25.680 --> 13:26.680] Pretty much.

[13:26.680 --> 13:30.120] And all you would need is, give me a holodeck and a replicator, and I'm good.

[13:30.120 --> 13:31.120] I'm done.

[13:31.120 --> 13:32.120] Yeah.

[13:32.120 --> 13:33.120] See you.

[13:33.120 --> 13:34.120] See you at that point.

[13:34.120 --> 13:35.120] See you at that point.

[13:35.120 --> 13:39.160] You go into Bob's holodeck, like, 50 years later, and it would be like a Halloween planet.

[13:39.160 --> 13:40.160] Yeah.

[13:40.160 --> 13:41.160] He would have constructed, right?

[13:41.160 --> 13:42.160] Also, don't go in there with a black light.

[13:42.160 --> 13:43.160] Oh, my God.

[13:43.160 --> 13:44.160] I saw the joke, and I took it.

[13:44.160 --> 13:45.160] Yeah.

[13:45.160 --> 13:46.160] Holy shit.

[13:46.160 --> 13:54.800] We encourage anyone who's interested in any of the things we're talking about, anything

[13:54.800 --> 13:59.400] about futurism and future technology and existing technology and the history of technology,

[13:59.400 --> 14:04.200] all of that, and sci-fi stuff, to pre-order the book, The Skeptic's Guide to the Future.

[14:04.200 --> 14:09.320] If you're listening to this after September 27th, you can order the book directly, and

[14:09.320 --> 14:11.800] they'll send it to you.

[14:11.800 --> 14:15.480] You can get to the links on the SGU page.

[14:15.480 --> 14:19.960] You go to the, you know, slash books, and then that takes you to the publisher who has

[14:19.960 --> 14:23.040] all the actual links to specific sellers.

[14:23.040 --> 14:27.880] I also will remind you that this is our second book.

[14:27.880 --> 14:29.840] Don't forget about The Skeptic's Guide to the Universe.

[14:29.840 --> 14:30.840] That's our first book.

[14:30.840 --> 14:32.640] It's still selling quite well, actually.

[14:32.640 --> 14:33.640] Yeah.

[14:33.640 --> 14:35.840] Let's get to some actual content.

[14:35.840 --> 14:36.840] Bob.

[14:36.840 --> 14:37.840] Oh, boy.

Forgotten Superheroes of Science (14:37)

• Raye Jean Montague, American naval engineer credited with creating the first computer-generated rough draft of a U.S. naval ship

[14:37.840 --> 14:38.840] You're going to do a Forgotten Superhero of Science.

[14:38.840 --> 14:39.840] Yeah.

[14:39.840 --> 14:40.840] I haven't done this in a while.

[14:40.840 --> 14:42.940] So, yes, Forgotten Superheroes of Science.

[14:42.940 --> 14:51.680] This is Ray Jean Montague, 1935 to 2018, naval engineer and the first female program manager

[14:51.680 --> 14:54.120] of ships in the United States Navy.

[14:54.120 --> 14:59.160] In her own words, she said, I'm known as the first person to design a ship using the computer.

[14:59.160 --> 15:00.160] Cool.

[15:00.160 --> 15:04.920] Montague was inspired early in life when, for her, you know, her scientific career.

[15:04.920 --> 15:09.480] When she was seven, I believe in 1940, her grandfather took her on a tour of a captured

[15:09.480 --> 15:10.480] German sub.

[15:10.480 --> 15:11.480] Wow.

[15:11.480 --> 15:15.560] And she said, she's quoted as saying about that experience, I looked through the periscope

[15:15.560 --> 15:17.840] and saw all these dials and mechanisms.

[15:17.840 --> 15:23.080] And I said to the guy who was giving the tour, what do you have to know to do this?

[15:23.080 --> 15:26.020] And he replied, oh, you'd have to be an engineer.

[15:26.020 --> 15:28.040] You don't have to worry about that.

[15:28.040 --> 15:32.840] And the implication, of course, a young black girl, you know, is never going to become an

[15:32.840 --> 15:33.840] engineer.

[15:33.840 --> 15:35.680] And don't forget, and also this was like in the 1940s.

[15:35.680 --> 15:40.400] So imagine, you know, the attitudes then for somebody like that becoming an engineer.

[15:40.400 --> 15:43.080] I mean, it's almost unimaginable how bad it was.

[15:43.080 --> 15:44.440] You know, today it's not great.

[15:44.440 --> 15:45.800] Back then, oof.

[15:45.800 --> 15:51.840] But Montague joined the United States Navy in 1955 in Washington, D.C.

[15:51.840 --> 15:53.560] And she was a clerk typist.

[15:53.560 --> 15:57.280] And she was sitting right next to the Univac One.

[15:57.280 --> 15:58.280] Univac One.

[15:58.280 --> 15:59.280] Univac.

[15:59.280 --> 16:00.280] Yeah.

[16:00.280 --> 16:04.520] So if you remember, the ENIAC was the first programmable, electronic, general purpose

[16:04.520 --> 16:06.080] digital computer.

[16:06.080 --> 16:09.440] There were other computers at that time that had some of those capabilities.

[16:09.440 --> 16:13.720] But that was the first one to have pretty much all of that at the same time.

[16:13.720 --> 16:16.220] And it was completed in 1945.

[16:16.220 --> 16:19.360] And it was used for the United States Army's Ballistic Research Lab.

[16:19.360 --> 16:22.480] Of course, it was an amazing tool.

[16:22.480 --> 16:24.600] Of course, it was, you know, it was a computer.

[16:24.600 --> 16:29.520] Univac One was essentially the business version of the ENIAC.

[16:29.520 --> 16:30.840] That's basically what that was.

[16:30.840 --> 16:35.240] It was the very first successful civilian computer.

[16:35.240 --> 16:39.720] And it was obviously, that was a critical piece of the dawn of the computer age.

[16:39.720 --> 16:43.720] I mean, it's a milestone of milestones right there.

[16:43.720 --> 16:45.520] And she was sitting right next to it.

[16:45.520 --> 16:46.840] She was working next to it.

[16:46.840 --> 16:50.920] And the story goes that one day, a lot, all of the engineers called in sick for whatever

[16:50.920 --> 16:51.920] reason.

[16:51.920 --> 16:53.300] I don't know if they were really partying the night before.

[16:53.300 --> 16:54.360] But none of them came in.

[16:54.360 --> 17:00.360] And she was able to dive right in and accomplish some work on the Univac One because she had

[17:00.360 --> 17:04.720] seen and she had observed the engineers using it for quite a while.

[17:04.720 --> 17:08.160] Soon after that, she was studying computer programming at night school.

[17:08.160 --> 17:11.920] And then the promotions seemed to come very, very quickly for her.

[17:11.920 --> 17:17.520] She was appointed as a computer systems analyst at the Navy Ship Engineering Center.

[17:17.520 --> 17:22.280] And then program director for the Naval Sea Systems Command Integrated Design Manufacturing

[17:22.280 --> 17:24.240] and Maintenance Program.

[17:24.240 --> 17:30.680] And then division head for the Computer Aided Design and Computer Aided Manufacturing, CAD,

[17:30.680 --> 17:37.120] CAD-CAM program, and deputy program manager of the Navy's Information Systems Improvement

[17:37.120 --> 17:38.120] Program.

[17:38.120 --> 17:40.600] So lots of titles, lots of responsibilities.

[17:40.600 --> 17:47.920] And then back in 1971, her department was challenged with a task to create a computer

[17:47.920 --> 17:52.240] generated ship design, had never really been done before.

[17:52.240 --> 17:56.640] She pulled together a lot of systems, some automated systems that had been created, pulled

[17:56.640 --> 17:57.640] them together.

[17:57.640 --> 18:06.000] And within 19 hours, she had an initial draft for an Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate.

[18:06.000 --> 18:08.960] Perry class frigate, I like the sound of that.

[18:08.960 --> 18:15.200] Within 19 hours, that made her the first person to design a ship using a computer system.

[18:15.200 --> 18:21.280] And then after that, she worked on Sea Wolf class submarines, Nimitz class aircraft carriers,

[18:21.280 --> 18:22.560] and Dwight D. Azenhower.

[18:22.560 --> 18:28.560] And just amazing to think she started as a clerk typist, and she ultimately was doing

[18:28.560 --> 18:31.720] amazing things and breaking ground.

[18:31.720 --> 18:32.720] And being the first.

[18:32.720 --> 18:33.720] What a life.

[18:33.720 --> 18:34.720] Incredible.

[18:34.720 --> 18:36.120] Being involved in all those different things, that is fantastic.

[18:36.120 --> 18:37.120] Amazing.

[18:37.120 --> 18:43.880] And also, you can imagine the pushback she got being a black woman at that time.

[18:43.880 --> 18:46.040] So I'm sure that wasn't easy as well.

[18:46.040 --> 18:51.720] Well, it's a testament to just how unbelievably talented and intelligent she was.

[18:51.720 --> 18:54.400] She had to blow people's minds in order to get there.

[18:54.400 --> 18:55.400] Absolutely.

[18:55.400 --> 19:00.480] And that's a common thread in a lot of these superhero segments that I've done, where they

[19:00.480 --> 19:06.040] were so superior that it couldn't be denied in a lot of cases.

[19:06.040 --> 19:10.720] And that's unfortunate that you have to be so amazing just to get the same opportunities

[19:10.720 --> 19:13.520] that people who are average amazing have.

[19:13.520 --> 19:14.840] All right.

[19:14.840 --> 19:20.760] So remember, the United States Navy's hidden figure, Ray Jean Montague.

[19:20.760 --> 19:24.600] Mention her to your friends, or Jay, mention her to your friend, especially when you're

[19:24.600 --> 19:25.600] discussing-

[19:25.600 --> 19:26.600] You're just Bob.

[19:26.600 --> 19:27.600] It's just me.

[19:27.600 --> 19:29.440] It's just Bob.

[19:29.440 --> 19:35.120] Especially when discussing drawing interchange formats, cattle bar arrangements, or especially

[19:35.120 --> 19:36.640] geometric modeling kernels.

[19:36.640 --> 19:37.640] Ooh, I like those.

[19:37.640 --> 19:38.640] Yes.

[19:38.640 --> 19:39.640] Thank you.

News Items

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(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

Are Fake Meats Sustainable? (19:39)

• How sustainable are fake meats?

[19:39.640 --> 19:42.480] All right, Jay, tell us about the future of vat-grown meat.

[19:42.480 --> 19:45.620] This isn't the future of vat-grown meat.

[19:45.620 --> 19:50.800] It's more about the difference between plant-based meats and traditional-

[19:50.800 --> 19:51.800] And meat-based meats?

[19:51.800 --> 19:54.640] And meat-based meats that are happening today.

[19:54.640 --> 20:01.640] And the real question here when we compare the two is, how sustainable are these plant-based

[20:01.640 --> 20:03.260] meats?

[20:03.260 --> 20:05.520] What is the profile?

[20:05.520 --> 20:09.840] After doing some research and reading about it, it's pretty interesting how we got to

[20:09.840 --> 20:15.000] plant-based meats, and then we're comparing the energy and resources that it takes to

[20:15.000 --> 20:18.240] create them versus traditional meats.

[20:18.240 --> 20:23.440] So as everybody knows, a lot of people eat meat, and unfortunately, meat demand, if anything,

[20:23.440 --> 20:24.440] it's just going up.

[20:24.440 --> 20:31.640] I have to admit, the older I get, I am way more conscious now about my meat-eating usage.

[20:31.640 --> 20:33.840] I try to lower it as much as possible.

[20:33.840 --> 20:39.300] And as much as I do love meatballs and everything, I don't let myself go there.

[20:39.300 --> 20:42.640] It's like maybe once every couple of months at this point, where it was more like every

[20:42.640 --> 20:44.640] two weeks, which is a big difference for me.

[20:44.640 --> 20:46.120] Every two weeks is fine.

[20:46.120 --> 20:47.360] Yeah.

[20:47.360 --> 20:51.000] The other thing about just eating traditional meat is that it is-

[20:51.000 --> 20:52.560] Once a week is fine.

[20:52.560 --> 20:56.120] It takes a significant toll on the environment.

[20:56.120 --> 21:01.840] Traditional agriculture promotes deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, air and water pollution.

[21:01.840 --> 21:07.560] So eating meat is just not helping global warming, which is getting worse, and everything

[21:07.560 --> 21:09.200] seems to be getting worse.

[21:09.200 --> 21:14.800] But just as I have to say, because we've covered this topic before, just to give it more nuance

[21:14.800 --> 21:20.240] to that, that doesn't mean zero meat consumption is what's optimal.

[21:20.240 --> 21:23.440] And I know this is controversial, because there are some people who think that that

[21:23.440 --> 21:29.800] is the case, but when we've done a deep dive on this topic, I think it's a fairer summary

[21:29.800 --> 21:34.400] is that we should really have a lot less meat consumption, but not zero, because there's

[21:34.400 --> 21:43.060] an integrated agricultural system where animals are good at converting non-human calories

[21:43.060 --> 21:44.900] into human calories.

[21:44.900 --> 21:48.600] So there can be an efficiency there.

[21:48.600 --> 21:53.840] And they can use land, which is not usable for growing food for people, and they can

[21:53.840 --> 21:57.460] eat food that people can eat and then convert that into food.

[21:57.460 --> 21:59.440] And they produce a lot of fertilizer.

[21:59.440 --> 22:02.440] Half of our food we grow with cattle manure.

[22:02.440 --> 22:06.840] So if they all went away, that would be a huge problem for the agricultural system.

[22:06.840 --> 22:09.160] So you're saying there's a healthy balance in there somewhere.

[22:09.160 --> 22:10.160] Yeah.

[22:10.160 --> 22:11.660] There's probably a sweet spot in there somewhere.

[22:11.660 --> 22:16.000] We're not at it right now, where I think we're just- Demand is requiring that we produce

[22:16.000 --> 22:18.160] more meat than is optimal for the system.

[22:18.160 --> 22:23.040] But not to imply that there's a consensus that we need to go to zero meat consumption.

[22:23.040 --> 22:28.660] And there's studies that show that a meat consumption at certain levels is perfectly

[22:28.660 --> 22:32.240] healthy and is not going to give you a heart attack.

[22:32.240 --> 22:36.660] So approximately 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock.

[22:36.660 --> 22:40.460] And like I said, it's only going to go up as demand for meat goes up.

[22:40.460 --> 22:46.640] They're saying that there will be a 15% increase in meat demand in the next decade.

[22:46.640 --> 22:47.640] That is significant.

[22:47.640 --> 22:49.800] That is way more than I would have guessed.

[22:49.800 --> 22:51.840] Greenhouse gases come from where?

[22:51.840 --> 22:55.560] When you're talking about grazing animals like sheep, goats, and cows, right?

[22:55.560 --> 23:00.640] These animals burp methane that comes from them digesting grasses and the like.

[23:00.640 --> 23:04.980] So greenhouse gases also happen to come from chemicals that are used to grow feed.

[23:04.980 --> 23:09.240] So there's lots of things in the industry that are the result of these greenhouse gases.

[23:09.240 --> 23:13.800] So interestingly, chickens and pigs have much lower gas emissions than cows, which I did

[23:13.800 --> 23:14.960] not know.

[23:14.960 --> 23:17.900] They're also better at converting the calories they eat into muscle.

[23:17.900 --> 23:22.120] So for example, when we compare chickens, pigs, and cows, chickens need to eat about

[23:22.120 --> 23:26.560] two pounds of feed for each pound of edible tissue gained.

[23:26.560 --> 23:28.940] Pigs need three to five pounds of feed.

[23:28.940 --> 23:29.940] And cows need-

[23:29.940 --> 23:30.940] Per pound.

[23:30.940 --> 23:31.940] What?

[23:31.940 --> 23:32.940] Per pound.

[23:32.940 --> 23:33.940] Yeah, everything is per pound.

[23:33.940 --> 23:36.360] So a pig needs to eat three to five pounds of feed to make an edible pound.

[23:36.360 --> 23:38.960] And then cows need six to 10 pounds of feed.

[23:38.960 --> 23:39.960] Whoa.

[23:39.960 --> 23:40.960] Yeah.

[23:40.960 --> 23:41.960] So it's a really big difference here.

[23:41.960 --> 23:45.000] Pigs are even worse, they're like 15, 16.

[23:45.000 --> 23:47.000] And fish are close to one to one.

[23:47.000 --> 23:48.000] Wow.

[23:48.000 --> 23:49.000] Yeah, fish are the best.

[23:49.000 --> 23:53.600] Goats and sheep are pretty bad, but they're not consumed in as large quantities across

[23:53.600 --> 23:55.840] the globe as cows.

[23:55.840 --> 24:00.360] Just reading these stats, like eat chicken and fish, that's a good shift in your meat

[24:00.360 --> 24:01.360] right there.

[24:01.360 --> 24:02.840] Just focus on them.

[24:02.840 --> 24:09.760] Cows produce six times more gas than pigs and approximately nine times more than chickens.

[24:09.760 --> 24:14.520] So they are clearly the biggest problem when it comes to grazing animals.

[24:14.520 --> 24:17.920] So today we have products that simulate the taste of meat.

[24:17.920 --> 24:21.160] And they're completely plant-based, and I don't know if you guys have ever tried them,

[24:21.160 --> 24:22.160] but I have.

[24:22.160 --> 24:23.160] I have.

[24:23.160 --> 24:24.160] I've tried them all.

[24:24.160 --> 24:25.160] I'll tell you about it.

[24:25.160 --> 24:26.160] They taste nothing like meat.

[24:26.160 --> 24:27.160] So plant-

[24:27.160 --> 24:28.160] I love Impossible Burger.

[24:28.160 --> 24:29.160] Taste or texture?

[24:29.160 --> 24:30.160] Impossible Burger, Steve, you would not know the difference.

[24:30.160 --> 24:31.160] Oh, absolutely, I know the difference.

[24:31.160 --> 24:32.160] You've had it.

[24:32.160 --> 24:34.280] No, you know the difference, but they're the closest, I think.

[24:34.280 --> 24:35.280] If somebody gave it to-

[24:35.280 --> 24:36.280] I've had them.

[24:36.280 --> 24:38.280] If somebody gave it to me and didn't tell me, I wouldn't even realize it.

[24:38.280 --> 24:39.600] Yeah, for a hamburger, it's fine.

[24:39.600 --> 24:40.600] I mean-

[24:40.600 --> 24:41.600] It's just a little bit weirder.

[24:41.600 --> 24:42.600] That's a separate question.

[24:42.600 --> 24:44.560] I mean, they taste fine.

[24:44.560 --> 24:46.800] I would never confuse it for beef.

[24:46.800 --> 24:47.800] Right.

[24:47.800 --> 24:48.800] But they taste fine.

[24:48.800 --> 24:49.800] I think it tastes better than beef.

[24:49.800 --> 24:50.800] That's different.

[24:50.800 --> 24:51.800] Okay.

[24:51.800 --> 24:52.800] You just have a plain-

[24:52.800 --> 24:53.800] How good it is is a different question than how much-

[24:53.800 --> 24:54.800] What do you have on your hamburger?

[24:54.800 --> 24:55.800] Yeah, the whole shebang.

[24:55.800 --> 24:56.800] Yeah, pickles.

[24:56.800 --> 24:58.640] By the time you put all your condiments, you know, like how much are you, you know.

[24:58.640 --> 25:03.920] So plant-based foods create significantly lower levels of greenhouse gases than meat-based

[25:03.920 --> 25:04.920] foods.

[25:04.920 --> 25:09.080] During the 12-hour show, and this is my anecdote, last year, right, when we do that, a year

[25:09.080 --> 25:12.440] ago last spring, I cooked meatballs for everybody in real time.

[25:12.440 --> 25:18.220] And I also made Ian, because Ian is a vegetarian, I made him plant-based meatballs.

[25:18.220 --> 25:20.960] And I got to tell you, legit, they tasted good.

[25:20.960 --> 25:21.960] They were good.

[25:21.960 --> 25:22.960] They weren't-

[25:22.960 --> 25:23.960] What did you use?

[25:23.960 --> 25:26.440] You know, they weren't beef, but they were a very good flavor and the texture was fantastic.

[25:26.440 --> 25:28.440] So I wasn't really that disappointed in them.

[25:28.440 --> 25:29.680] Jay, what did you use?

[25:29.680 --> 25:31.520] I used Impossible Burger meat.

[25:31.520 --> 25:32.520] Impossible, okay.

[25:32.520 --> 25:33.520] Yeah.

[25:33.520 --> 25:38.840] I've also had Shepherd's Pie made completely out of Impossible Burger, and that was fantastic.

[25:38.840 --> 25:44.360] Because it's heavy with, you know, spices, so it obfuscates the flavor.

[25:44.360 --> 25:49.560] So the point of me saying this is you could use plant-based meats in dishes where, you

[25:49.560 --> 25:53.000] know, there's a lot of spices and everything, like for tacos and things like that.

[25:53.000 --> 25:56.820] Like, you could just think about swapping that in right away because it tastes fantastic.

[25:56.820 --> 26:01.740] So researchers were able to make a plant-based product that has similar traits as real meat

[26:01.740 --> 26:05.000] by figuring out exactly what makes meat meat.

[26:05.000 --> 26:07.020] You know, why does meat taste like meat?

[26:07.020 --> 26:08.520] Why does it have the texture that it has?

[26:08.520 --> 26:10.520] Why does it have the flavors that it has?

[26:10.520 --> 26:15.440] So as an example, many of the products that they use, like coconut oil is a great example.

[26:15.440 --> 26:20.800] They use coconut oil, I believe, in Impossible Burger because it has a similar animal fats

[26:20.800 --> 26:22.880] feel in your mouth.

[26:22.880 --> 26:25.760] Kara, it seems to me like you and I talk about heme quite a bit.

[26:25.760 --> 26:27.800] For some reason, you and I are always chit-chatting about heme.

[26:27.800 --> 26:28.800] Leg hemoglobin.

[26:28.800 --> 26:29.800] Hem!

[26:29.800 --> 26:30.800] Yeah.

[26:30.800 --> 26:31.800] Hemoglobin.

[26:31.800 --> 26:32.800] So this heme is the red liquid.

[26:32.800 --> 26:33.800] Now, this isn't blood.

[26:33.800 --> 26:40.320] It's the red liquid protein that comes out of meats if you have a steak or even ground

[26:40.320 --> 26:41.320] beef.

[26:41.320 --> 26:43.280] If you squeeze it, you see this red liquid come out.

[26:43.280 --> 26:44.280] It's blood, Jay.

[26:44.280 --> 26:45.280] By the way, it's not a red liquid.

[26:45.280 --> 26:46.280] It's not a red liquid.

[26:46.280 --> 26:47.280] It's blood.

[26:47.280 --> 26:48.280] It's not exactly blood, Steve.

[26:48.280 --> 26:49.280] It's a part of blood.

[26:49.280 --> 26:50.280] Yeah, it's a part of blood.

[26:50.280 --> 26:51.280] Watery blood.

[26:51.280 --> 26:52.720] It's a part of blood, and it's pretty amazing.

[26:52.720 --> 26:58.040] When I visited the Impossible headquarters for a TV show, I had to taste leg hemoglobin,

[26:58.040 --> 27:03.680] which is the version that they use, the plant-based version they use in Impossible Meat.

[27:03.680 --> 27:09.800] And it tastes like your mouth is full of blood, like it's gross to just eat on its own.

[27:09.800 --> 27:10.800] It makes you feel weird.

[27:10.800 --> 27:11.800] That's right.

[27:11.800 --> 27:12.800] And you're not supposed to.

[27:12.800 --> 27:16.720] But Kara, the point is, and I want to make this perfectly clear, they made a plant-based

[27:16.720 --> 27:17.720] version of heme.

[27:17.720 --> 27:19.960] Well, all plants have it.

[27:19.960 --> 27:24.800] They just were able to, first they isolated it from soy.

[27:24.800 --> 27:29.120] And then when they realized that the quantity that they could get was so tiny, they started

[27:29.120 --> 27:33.840] genetically engineering yeast to produce it, because it's just so much more efficient to

[27:33.840 --> 27:34.840] do it that way.

[27:34.840 --> 27:35.840] Yeah.

[27:35.840 --> 27:40.520] And so they cultivate these yeast, and then they create reactors that the yeast can multiply

[27:40.520 --> 27:41.520] in.

[27:41.520 --> 27:42.520] And then it cranks.

[27:42.520 --> 27:43.520] This is like insulin.

[27:43.520 --> 27:44.520] You know what I mean?

[27:44.520 --> 27:45.760] This is, by the way, is how insulin is made.

[27:45.760 --> 27:50.380] So taking a close look at how much energy is needed to produce these products will answer

[27:50.380 --> 27:55.560] the overall question that I'm putting to everybody here, is how much better is plant-based meats

[27:55.560 --> 27:57.500] for the environment than regular meat?

[27:57.500 --> 27:59.680] So let me give you guys a little bit of a background here.

[27:59.680 --> 28:03.840] So each ingredient needs to be traced back to where it comes from, from all the processes,

[28:03.840 --> 28:04.840] right?

[28:04.840 --> 28:08.480] There's a ton of processes that they need to get through in order for it to be the final

[28:08.480 --> 28:10.440] version that's found in plant-based meats.

[28:10.440 --> 28:13.420] And this is called life cycle analysis.

[28:13.420 --> 28:16.080] So for example, each ingredient is what?

[28:16.080 --> 28:20.280] They're farmed, because they're plants, they're transported, and then they're processed.

[28:20.280 --> 28:24.520] And in each of those three stages, there's a lot of things happening, and that they had

[28:24.520 --> 28:28.280] to track all of those different steps and every single thing that happens.

[28:28.280 --> 28:33.160] So each step along the way uses fuel, uses water, uses land, uses chemicals, and they

[28:33.160 --> 28:36.840] have to total up all this information for each ingredient, and that gives us the final

[28:36.840 --> 28:37.840] answer.

[28:37.840 --> 28:42.560] But the snag is, because there's always a freaking snag, is that the information wasn't

[28:42.560 --> 28:44.960] readily available to these researchers.

[28:44.960 --> 28:49.800] The companies that make plant-based meats, they're keeping their products and ingredients

[28:49.800 --> 28:54.160] and all of that information to themselves because it's proprietary.

[28:54.160 --> 28:57.560] They don't want to say, here's everything that we do and every single process that we

[28:57.560 --> 29:02.320] use because that is part of their company's business.

[29:02.320 --> 29:03.320] It does make sense.

[29:03.320 --> 29:07.160] I don't think they're doing it for malfeasance.

[29:07.160 --> 29:10.400] They're doing it because they don't want other companies to copy what they're doing.

[29:10.400 --> 29:12.120] It is their intellectual property.

[29:12.120 --> 29:17.160] So scientists had to rely on information that these companies shared about their products.

[29:17.160 --> 29:18.960] That is the one disclosure that I have here.

[29:18.960 --> 29:24.880] I'm just assuming that they gave a relatively accurate rendition of what's actually taking

[29:24.880 --> 29:25.880] place.

[29:25.880 --> 29:32.320] So to get to some numbers, Impossible Burger production only creates 11% of the greenhouse

[29:32.320 --> 29:35.400] gases produced by the same amount of beef.

[29:35.400 --> 29:36.880] That is significantly less.

[29:36.880 --> 29:38.440] Yeah, that's significant.

[29:38.440 --> 29:41.720] Other plant-based meat producers were showing similar numbers as well.

[29:41.720 --> 29:49.600] So compared to pork and chicken, pork was 37% of beef and chicken was 57%, which is

[29:49.600 --> 29:51.600] even better.

[29:51.600 --> 29:56.900] These numbers are pretty significant when you think about the impact on the environment.

[29:56.900 --> 30:02.760] Researchers also found that the amount of water used was only 23% of that in beef, 11%

[30:02.760 --> 30:05.840] used by pork and 24% in chicken for equal amounts of protein.

[30:05.840 --> 30:08.720] So they're dramatically less.

[30:08.720 --> 30:11.120] Land use has huge differences as well.

[30:11.120 --> 30:17.880] Deforested use was 2% of what beef uses for the same amount of protein, 2%, 18% for pork

[30:17.880 --> 30:20.320] and 23% for chicken.

[30:20.320 --> 30:26.240] Land use is important because, you know what, land is very important here because there

[30:26.240 --> 30:31.680] is a potential huge amount of carbon storage that an acre of land can have.

[30:31.680 --> 30:38.840] And when you're deforesting tens of thousands of acres, unfortunately, of the Amazon, you're

[30:38.840 --> 30:42.960] getting rid of an incredible amount of vegetation that's holding a lot of carbon.

[30:42.960 --> 30:43.960] So it all adds up.

[30:43.960 --> 30:48.120] But again, you know, there's always multiple angles here.

[30:48.120 --> 30:52.900] Land that cattle are grazing on is not rainforest, right?

[30:52.900 --> 30:58.820] And so a lot of that land use is not arable land or land that we could be using for agriculture.

[30:58.820 --> 31:07.040] And there is a separate movement, like another way to mitigate the resource use of cows and

[31:07.040 --> 31:20.120] meat, you know, meat-based animals, is to feed them more of the refuse, you know.

[31:20.120 --> 31:22.320] You don't grow grains to feed them.

[31:22.320 --> 31:27.200] You feed them the leftover stuff from human agriculture.

[31:27.200 --> 31:30.680] So that is more of like a circular system.

[31:30.680 --> 31:34.520] So it remains to be seen how far that can go.

[31:34.520 --> 31:37.880] But there is a huge movement in agriculture to do that.

[31:37.880 --> 31:40.440] I just read a recent news item about that.

[31:40.440 --> 31:44.440] Steve, they are clearing Amazon forest for grazing purposes.

[31:44.440 --> 31:51.120] And soybeans are also huge, very high on the list of what's being grown in former Amazon

[31:51.120 --> 31:52.720] forest right now.

[31:52.720 --> 31:54.000] So it is a problem.

[31:54.000 --> 31:56.040] And you know, they're racking back those.

[31:56.040 --> 31:57.320] That's a separate problem.

[31:57.320 --> 32:00.280] Even without animals, that's a problem.

[32:00.280 --> 32:06.160] And you know, even if they're just growing crops, whether animals are in the mix or not,

[32:06.160 --> 32:09.040] that's the worst thing they could be doing is, you know, what they're essentially doing

[32:09.040 --> 32:15.520] is burning down the forest and then planting crops to get all the nutrients out of that.

[32:15.520 --> 32:17.760] And then they move on once they...

[32:17.760 --> 32:19.600] It's not even burning down a forest.

[32:19.600 --> 32:24.000] They're like burning down libraries, essentially, I mean, because you've got genetic diversity

[32:24.000 --> 32:26.040] in those rainforests.

[32:26.040 --> 32:27.040] And they're isolated.

[32:27.040 --> 32:31.000] You have a genetic diversified area that is unique.

[32:31.000 --> 32:35.960] And once that's gone, that is gone, it's millions of years of evolution, now gone that we will

[32:35.960 --> 32:36.960] never retrieve.

[32:36.960 --> 32:40.480] There could be amazing drugs in there, amazing genetic information that is gone.

[32:40.480 --> 32:44.160] So it's so far worse than just burning down trees and stuff.

[32:44.160 --> 32:48.920] There are alternatives, like you can farm the forest, right?

[32:48.920 --> 32:55.520] You can plant and cultivate and whatever things that will grow within the forest without having

[32:55.520 --> 32:57.200] to destroy the forest itself.

[32:57.200 --> 33:00.200] Yeah, like castanhas, like Brazil nut trees, they're really sustainable.

[33:00.200 --> 33:05.560] It's a great way to harvest things that are already growing there and not disrupt the

[33:05.560 --> 33:06.560] ecosystem.

[33:06.560 --> 33:11.460] And they could also use the land they're already using for farming better by planting things

[33:11.460 --> 33:15.600] which regenerate the soil that are also cash crops, you know.

[33:15.600 --> 33:17.080] But so they're just not doing it smartly.

[33:17.080 --> 33:18.240] They're not doing it well.

[33:18.240 --> 33:22.520] Well, in some areas, people really are doing it smartly, and in other areas there's too

[33:22.520 --> 33:27.540] much demand and the cost is too high and individuals are going to do what they need to do to maintain

[33:27.540 --> 33:28.540] their livelihood.

[33:28.540 --> 33:29.540] Absolutely.

[33:29.540 --> 33:31.880] So this is way bigger than the boots on the ground in the Amazon.

[33:31.880 --> 33:36.480] It's the pressure from countries like ours asking for tropical hardwoods and asking for

[33:36.480 --> 33:41.240] more crops to be grown and more animals to be produced in those areas.

[33:41.240 --> 33:46.600] Jay, I think it's important to note because I've been looking at the comments that a lot

[33:46.600 --> 33:54.640] of these lab grown or synthetic meats that try to emulate real meat, the target audience

[33:54.640 --> 33:59.600] is not people who are already not eating meat because you hear a lot of times people going,

[33:59.600 --> 34:00.600] it grosses me out.

[34:00.600 --> 34:01.700] It tastes too much like real meat.

[34:01.700 --> 34:03.960] I don't want to eat fake meat.

[34:03.960 --> 34:04.960] It's not for you.

[34:04.960 --> 34:05.960] Yeah.

[34:05.960 --> 34:10.120] The idea that like the CEO of Impossible when I interviewed him, I think Pat Brown is his

[34:10.120 --> 34:15.360] name, he was very clear, I wanted to develop this so that I could give an alternative to

[34:15.360 --> 34:20.400] people who are doing the environmental harm, people who are eating large quantities of

[34:20.400 --> 34:21.400] meat.

[34:21.400 --> 34:22.400] Exactly.

[34:22.400 --> 34:25.720] So that they have an option to do better without giving up what they love.

[34:25.720 --> 34:32.840] So I think the meta problem here is that, yeah, there are smart agricultural practices.

[34:32.840 --> 34:35.200] There are optimal agricultural practices.

[34:35.200 --> 34:39.000] We can get the system to be more circular and work together better.

[34:39.000 --> 34:44.460] But it's not like there is a world agricultural organization that actually controls what every

[34:44.460 --> 34:46.160] farmer does.

[34:46.160 --> 34:50.500] And so what you have is individual farmers making individual decisions that are in their

[34:50.500 --> 34:52.840] best interest.

[34:52.840 --> 34:57.440] And a lot of the times it's like, well, they're making decisions so they don't starve.

[34:57.440 --> 35:01.160] They're making decisions so that they don't lose money doing what they're doing.

[35:01.160 --> 35:04.560] The margins are so razor thin with agriculture.

[35:04.560 --> 35:11.000] And so they're not necessarily doing what's optimal for the whole system, but we're at

[35:11.000 --> 35:15.720] a point with eight billion people on the planet where we're already basically using up all

[35:15.720 --> 35:20.800] the arable land and because of global warming, where we need the whole system to be efficient

[35:20.800 --> 35:22.020] together.

[35:22.020 --> 35:26.760] And that's really what we're talking about is moving towards an integrated system that's

[35:26.760 --> 35:28.640] coordinated and that's optimal.

[35:28.640 --> 35:35.340] And that may mean having to pay poor people to not do stuff or paying to give them better

[35:35.340 --> 35:38.760] ways to do things or integrating it better.

[35:38.760 --> 35:43.240] But again, individuals will make smart decisions for themselves that are not good for the whole

[35:43.240 --> 35:44.240] system.

[35:44.240 --> 35:45.240] That's really the problem.

[35:45.240 --> 35:46.240] Right.

[35:46.240 --> 35:47.240] That's why we have poaching.

[35:47.240 --> 35:49.660] That's why we have gold mining in the Amazon, because it's the only option these people

[35:49.660 --> 35:52.120] have.

[35:52.120 --> 35:56.520] I think it's fair to note here, there are some drawbacks to plant-based meats.

[35:56.520 --> 36:02.000] Right now they cost 43% more than products that they're trying to replace, which is a

[36:02.000 --> 36:03.000] lot.

[36:03.000 --> 36:06.880] And I did go on, I did some online searching and verified that that's true.

[36:06.880 --> 36:11.080] Which is another point, like if you're like a poor farmer in Africa, sometimes animal

[36:11.080 --> 36:14.580] protein is the cheapest, best protein you can get access to.

[36:14.580 --> 36:16.840] And that's very important for certain people.

[36:16.840 --> 36:21.000] Again, we can't just look at this from our perspective where like we have no issues with

[36:21.000 --> 36:24.040] getting enough food or calories or high quality proteins or stuff.

[36:24.040 --> 36:28.100] When most of the world is living on the edge, we have to be very careful about any changes

[36:28.100 --> 36:29.100] that we make.

[36:29.100 --> 36:34.680] And right now, plant-based meats are only 1% of the market, which is basically almost

[36:34.680 --> 36:35.760] nothing.

[36:35.760 --> 36:41.880] I would just like to say at this point, eat green leafy vegetables, eat beans, eat grains.

[36:41.880 --> 36:45.320] This is much healthier than predominantly eating meats.

[36:45.320 --> 36:48.920] Well, it's all about balance, but we definitely should eat more of that, and we are generally

[36:48.920 --> 36:49.920] in the West.

[36:49.920 --> 36:53.260] Well, everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about our sponsor

[36:53.260 --> 36:54.760] this week, BetterHelp.

[36:54.760 --> 36:57.120] Yeah, and let's not sugarcoat it, everyone.

[36:57.120 --> 36:59.560] It's a tough time out there and a lot of people are struggling.

[36:59.560 --> 37:06.400] And if you are struggling and you have never decided to take the plunge and talk to somebody,

[37:06.400 --> 37:08.200] maybe now is the time.

[37:08.200 --> 37:11.640] It's so important to prioritize our mental health.

[37:11.640 --> 37:16.120] If we put that first, everything else really can follow and BetterHelp can help you with

[37:16.120 --> 37:17.120] that.

[37:17.120 --> 37:19.520] You know, I myself work as a therapist and I also go to therapy.

[37:19.520 --> 37:24.320] And I can tell you that online therapy has been really, really beneficial for a lot of

[37:24.320 --> 37:27.800] folks where it's, you know, it fits better within your day.

[37:27.800 --> 37:31.780] You have limitations to be able to get in the car and drive somewhere.

[37:31.780 --> 37:35.440] Being able to talk to somebody online can be really a lifesaver.

[37:35.440 --> 37:37.960] And it's the model that I'm now using all the time.

[37:37.960 --> 37:43.480] Yeah, Kara, you could do it on your phone or, you know, your iPad if you want to, any

[37:43.480 --> 37:45.360] way that you connect with the video.

[37:45.360 --> 37:49.400] You can even live chat with therapy sessions so you don't have to see anyone on camera

[37:49.400 --> 37:50.400] if you don't want to.

[37:50.400 --> 37:55.300] And the other great thing is you could be matched with a therapist in under 48 hours.

[37:55.300 --> 38:00.880] Our listeners get 10% off their first month at BetterHelp.com slash SGU.

[38:00.880 --> 38:04.480] That's Better H-E-L-P dot com slash SGU.

[38:04.480 --> 38:06.720] All right, guys, let's get back to the show.

Why Go Back to the Moon? (38:08)

• Why go back to the Moon?

Interview with The Everyday Astronaut (53:10)

• Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut

Science or Fiction (1:24:55)

Theme: Past inventions that utterly failed Item #1: In 1983, in response to the Sony Walkman craze, Audio Technica released the Sound Burger, a portable record player, complete with earbuds. Item #2: In 1981 a Swedish company marketed an all-plastic bicycle, the Itera, which turned out to be expensive to produce but failed mostly because the weak frame made it too wobbly to ride. Item #3: In the 1930s architect Buckminster Fuller designed a pre-fab house designed to be inexpensive, quick to build, and ecofriendly, made mostly out of waste cow bones from the beef industry. Item #4: In 1964, Claus Scholz of Vienna invented a phone-answering robot; however, its ability was limited to picking up and hanging up the phone.

Answer	Item
Fiction	Cow bones pre fab house
Science	Portable record player
Science	All-plastic bicycle
Science	Phone-answering robot

Host	Result
Steve	win

Rogue	Guess
Evan	All-plastic bicycle
Bob	Portable record player
Jay	Cow bones pre fab house
Cara	Cow bones pre fab house

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:40:32)

This job is a great scientific adventure. But it's also a great human adventure. Mankind has made giant steps forward. However, what we know is really very, very little compared to what we still have to know.
– Fabiola Gianotti, Italian experimental particle physicist

Signoff/Announcements

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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Today I Learned

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