SGU Episode 899
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| SGU Episode 899 |
|---|
| October 1st 2022 |
 |
| Skeptical Rogues |
| S: Steven Novella |
B: Bob Novella |
C: Cara Santa Maria |
J: Jay Novella |
E: Evan Bernstein |
| Guest |
TD: Tim Dodd, American science communicator |
| Quote of the Week |
This job is a great scientific adventure. |
Fabiola Gianotti, Italian experimental particle physicist |
| Links |
| Download Podcast |
| Show Notes |
| Forum Discussion |
Introduction, Hurricane Ian, new SGU Book
Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.
[00:12.920 --> 00:18.680] Today is Saturday, September 24th, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.
[00:18.680 --> 00:20.240] Joining me this week are Bob Novella.
[00:20.240 --> 00:21.240] Hey, everybody.
[00:21.240 --> 00:22.240] Kara Santamaria.
[00:22.240 --> 00:23.240] Howdy.
[00:23.240 --> 00:24.240] Jay Novella.
[00:24.240 --> 00:25.240] Hey, guys.
[00:25.240 --> 00:26.240] And Evan Bernstein.
[00:26.240 --> 00:27.240] Good evening, everyone.
[00:27.240 --> 00:31.120] We are recording this episode live in SGU Studios.
[00:31.120 --> 00:37.600] Kara is joining us remotely from Florida, battening down the hatches while a hurricane
[00:37.600 --> 00:39.080] is bearing down on her.
[00:39.080 --> 00:40.240] How are you doing down there, Kara?
[00:40.240 --> 00:45.480] Well, it's not here yet, but I'm supposed to go home to LA next Thursday, and then I
[00:45.480 --> 00:49.400] just found out right after I booked the tickets that we're quite probably going to be hit
[00:49.400 --> 00:52.560] with a category three hurricane on Wednesday.
[00:52.560 --> 00:54.080] It'll be my first ever.
[00:54.080 --> 01:00.880] So I did tornadoes in Texas, earthquakes in California, hurricanes now in Florida.
[01:00.880 --> 01:02.680] Just need to move on to an active volcano.
[01:02.680 --> 01:03.680] Yeah, there you go.
[01:03.680 --> 01:07.960] Now, Kara, you know according to Florida rules, you need to be mowing your lawn when that
[01:07.960 --> 01:10.000] hurricane hits, right?
[01:10.000 --> 01:14.160] You need to be outside doing something as if there's no danger.
[01:14.160 --> 01:16.560] Right, and my cow needs to be untrimmed.
[01:16.560 --> 01:17.560] Right.
[01:17.560 --> 01:21.440] Because the low pressure of the system raises the grass a little straighter, makes it easier
[01:21.440 --> 01:22.440] to cut.
[01:22.440 --> 01:23.680] So I mean, it's kind of an obvious move.
[01:23.680 --> 01:28.520] Now, NASA is still planning on launching Artemis on Tuesday.
[01:28.520 --> 01:29.520] Did they finally scrub it?
[01:29.520 --> 01:30.520] That's so not going to happen.
[01:30.520 --> 01:31.520] Oh, yeah.
[01:31.520 --> 01:34.640] Well, they like to wait till the last minute because sometimes these things zig instead
[01:34.640 --> 01:38.560] of zag, and they don't want to miss their window, but I guess the latest update is they
[01:38.560 --> 01:39.560] just scrubbed it.
[01:39.560 --> 01:40.560] Not surprising.
[01:40.560 --> 01:42.280] I thought that was a little bit of wishful thinking.
[01:42.280 --> 01:46.360] So part of the reason why we are recording this episode, and there'll be another episode
[01:46.360 --> 01:51.680] that we're recording as part of a live stream, is because our second book, The Skeptic's
[01:51.680 --> 01:58.440] Guide to the Future, is coming out in just three days on September 27th.
[01:58.440 --> 02:03.060] So this book is The Skeptic's Guide to the Future, but Bob Jay and I wrote this one.
[02:03.060 --> 02:09.560] This was a ton of fun to research, to talk about, to design, figure out what goes into
[02:09.560 --> 02:11.200] it, to write.
[02:11.200 --> 02:13.560] We've already had a few interviews about it.
[02:13.560 --> 02:16.320] It's super fun to talk about.
[02:16.320 --> 02:22.680] Really what we do in this book is we go through first the history of futurism, right?
[02:22.680 --> 02:28.600] So previous attempts at predicting the future and how did they do, what did they get wrong,
[02:28.600 --> 02:31.160] what patterns of wrongness are there?
[02:31.160 --> 02:36.080] We talk about futurism fallacies, the common mistakes that futurists make over and over
[02:36.080 --> 02:37.080] again.
[02:37.080 --> 02:40.760] We looked a little bit into futurism as an academic discipline to see what they're saying
[02:40.760 --> 02:42.480] there, et cetera.
[02:42.480 --> 02:48.040] And then the meat of the book is we talk about the cutting edge technologies, where they're
[02:48.040 --> 02:53.200] coming from, where they are now, and then we try to extrapolate them into the future,
[02:53.200 --> 02:59.200] the near future, the medium future, and then the distant future when those technologies
[02:59.200 --> 03:00.680] are fully mature.
[03:00.680 --> 03:04.240] What is the ultimate potential of these technologies?
[03:04.240 --> 03:05.320] We had fun.
[03:05.320 --> 03:10.400] That was the fun part because when we discussed what is this technology going to look like
[03:10.400 --> 03:15.960] fifty, a hundred, a thousand years from now, then we took the opportunity to write some
[03:15.960 --> 03:21.360] science fiction to illustrate that technology in use, which I thought came out really well.
[03:21.360 --> 03:27.640] That was a ton of fun discussing what that could look like in use.
[03:27.640 --> 03:28.640] We call them vignettes.
[03:28.640 --> 03:30.720] They're not even really a full short story.
[03:30.720 --> 03:33.400] It's just a glimpse of the future.
[03:33.400 --> 03:38.400] And they bring into lots of different technologies that we had just discussed or that we're about
[03:38.400 --> 03:39.400] to discuss in the book.
[03:39.400 --> 03:42.440] So it's not just one tech, but a bunch of them all in one story.
[03:42.440 --> 03:45.800] And that, of course, is one of the main themes of the book.
[03:45.800 --> 03:50.720] One of the futurism fallacies is to think that how will this one technology look in
[03:50.720 --> 03:51.720] the future?
[03:51.720 --> 03:56.120] But you can't think about it that way because by the time you get to that point that you're
[03:56.120 --> 04:00.720] talking about, all other technologies will have been advancing in the background.
[04:00.720 --> 04:06.260] So I say, well, what will fusion power look like in fifty years?
[04:06.260 --> 04:10.360] You can't talk about that without also talking about what solar power is going to look like
[04:10.360 --> 04:15.160] in fifty years and all other sources of energy because it's always going to be compared to
[04:15.160 --> 04:17.480] all of the other options.
[04:17.480 --> 04:22.880] Or if we talk a lot about space travel and we think, oh, by the time we get, you know,
[04:22.880 --> 04:27.400] here are the problems that we'll be facing with spending a lot of time in space or interstellar
[04:27.400 --> 04:28.400] travel.
[04:28.400 --> 04:31.760] Yeah, but by the time we get that, we might be cyborgs.
[04:31.760 --> 04:32.760] We probably will be.
[04:32.760 --> 04:34.340] We'll be genetically engineered.
[04:34.340 --> 04:38.280] We may just, you know, transfer into a robot for the trip, you know, or whatever.
[04:38.280 --> 04:40.680] Like you have to think about all the other things that are happening.
[04:40.680 --> 04:41.680] It's not going to be us.
[04:41.680 --> 04:42.680] Right.
[04:42.680 --> 04:43.680] Right.
[04:43.680 --> 04:44.680] It's not going to be us in the future.
[04:44.680 --> 04:45.680] That's what we want.
[04:45.680 --> 04:46.680] We want to imagine us in the future.
[04:46.680 --> 04:47.680] But that's not what's going to be happening.
[04:47.680 --> 04:52.200] And if you look at previous predictions of the future and futurists, that's a classic
[04:52.200 --> 04:53.200] mistake.
[04:53.200 --> 04:57.440] They take themselves, their culture, and they just put it, plop it into place with this
[04:57.440 --> 04:58.880] new fancy technology.
[04:58.880 --> 05:01.800] And that's a classic mistake that you see over and over and over.
[05:01.800 --> 05:02.800] Right.
[05:02.800 --> 05:06.400] Because part of, quote unquote, predicting the future is thinking about how people are
[05:06.400 --> 05:08.240] going to interact with that technology.
[05:08.240 --> 05:11.660] And again, we imagine how we're going to interact with that technology.
[05:11.660 --> 05:14.600] But I think we're living at a very interesting time.
[05:14.600 --> 05:21.480] Probably our generation, maybe more than any other generation, has a firsthand example of,
[05:21.480 --> 05:27.040] like for those of us who have kids, like our kids have a different relationship with technology
[05:27.040 --> 05:28.040] than we do.
[05:28.040 --> 05:29.040] Oh my gosh.
[05:29.040 --> 05:30.040] Right.
[05:30.040 --> 05:31.040] They use social media.
[05:31.040 --> 05:32.040] They use their smartphone.
[05:32.040 --> 05:34.280] They think about these things differently than we do.
[05:34.280 --> 05:37.000] They think about it differently.
[05:37.000 --> 05:38.720] They prioritize different things.
[05:38.720 --> 05:43.760] My daughters rarely, if ever, use their phone as a phone.
[05:43.760 --> 05:46.360] It's not really a phone for them.
[05:46.360 --> 05:51.840] They use it way more to text or to communicate on certain social media apps or whatever.
[05:51.840 --> 05:52.840] Wait, Steve.
[05:52.840 --> 05:53.840] Do you use your phone?
[05:53.840 --> 05:54.840] You make phone calls?
[05:54.840 --> 05:55.840] Yes.
[05:55.840 --> 05:56.840] Yeah.
[05:56.840 --> 05:57.840] Yeah.
[05:57.840 --> 05:58.840] What?
[05:58.840 --> 06:02.480] Actually, I was telling Rachel, when I was her age, I had two means of communicating
[06:02.480 --> 06:03.480] with people.
[06:03.480 --> 06:06.520] I wrote them a letter or I picked up a phone and called them.
[06:06.520 --> 06:07.520] And that was it.
[06:07.520 --> 06:08.520] Or you met them in person.
[06:08.520 --> 06:09.520] Yeah.
[06:09.520 --> 06:10.520] That sucked.
[06:10.520 --> 06:11.520] Or you met them in person.
[06:11.520 --> 06:14.440] But short of that, because I moved around the country a lot, I had to want to communicate
[06:14.440 --> 06:15.440] with my friends.
[06:15.440 --> 06:16.680] So we talked about how that happened.
[06:16.680 --> 06:22.360] I said, I wrote letters and made phone calls that cost $15 for 30 minutes.
[06:22.360 --> 06:24.160] That's how you communicated with people across the country.
[06:24.160 --> 06:25.160] That was it.
[06:25.160 --> 06:28.040] And I remember worrying about the cost of making a phone call.
[06:28.040 --> 06:29.040] Absolutely.
[06:29.040 --> 06:32.160] You had to call it off-peak hours so that you wouldn't get charged the prime rate, because
[06:32.160 --> 06:38.080] my parents would kill me if they found out I ran up a $50 phone bill for a call to my
[06:38.080 --> 06:40.040] friend back at the other side of the country.
[06:40.040 --> 06:44.560] I think Steve's a little bit anomalous, though, because I definitely use my phone a lot.
[06:44.560 --> 06:47.560] And I definitely don't use it mostly for making phone calls.
[06:47.560 --> 06:50.800] There's just so much other stuff, the obvious stuff that I do.
[06:50.800 --> 06:51.800] Oh, yeah.
[06:51.800 --> 06:57.240] I mean, a smartphone is probably the phone app is one of the least used aspects of it.
[06:57.240 --> 06:58.240] Absolutely.
[06:58.240 --> 07:00.240] My smartphone is my handheld computer.
[07:00.240 --> 07:01.240] That's not my point.
[07:01.240 --> 07:02.960] If it disappeared, could we get by without it?
[07:02.960 --> 07:04.840] I do call and accept phone calls.
[07:04.840 --> 07:06.160] It is still my phone.
[07:06.160 --> 07:08.480] My daughters, they turned off their ringer.
[07:08.480 --> 07:11.600] They don't use it at all as a phone.
[07:11.600 --> 07:17.440] My phone is on silent with no notifications ever for my mental health, but I'm curious.
[07:17.440 --> 07:21.120] So the only time I ever talk on the phone, and I guess that's changed a little since
[07:21.120 --> 07:26.000] I've been in Florida without a car, but in California, the only time I would have conversations
[07:26.000 --> 07:28.920] was when I was driving long distances.
[07:28.920 --> 07:30.760] Does anybody else have that same vibe?
[07:30.760 --> 07:32.640] The only time I talk to people is in the car.
[07:32.640 --> 07:36.000] That's not the only time, but that's definitely a huge opportunity because you're just sitting
[07:36.000 --> 07:42.480] there doing nothing, and you could talk to people now that it's easy when you route the
[07:42.480 --> 07:44.640] phone through your car so you're not holding it.
[07:44.640 --> 07:47.320] Where are you talking to people, then, if you're not on the phone?
[07:47.320 --> 07:50.320] Are you not having conversations?
[07:50.320 --> 07:54.720] Just communicating virtual time, yeah, with texts and emails and whatever.
[07:54.720 --> 07:57.800] I'm definitely more of a phone talker than a texter.
[07:57.800 --> 08:05.840] And then if I'm missing somebody and we want to have quality time together, then we FaceTime.
[08:05.840 --> 08:11.320] Well I primarily use my phone to get angry at the internet, I think, if I summarize my
[08:11.320 --> 08:12.320] interaction.
[08:12.320 --> 08:14.240] She's an angry old Facebook man.
[08:14.240 --> 08:17.840] I am pissed off at basically everybody that uses social media.
[08:17.840 --> 08:21.600] I log in and I'm instantly furious with what I see.
[08:21.600 --> 08:28.860] But this is a classic sort of futurism fallacy, again, in that past futurists pretty much
[08:28.860 --> 08:36.400] unanimously imagined that in the future, the amorphous future, when the technology existed,
[08:36.400 --> 08:39.720] people will video call, right?
[08:39.720 --> 08:40.840] And now we have...
[08:40.840 --> 08:41.840] We assumed it.
[08:41.840 --> 08:47.560] Even we did years ago, 30 years ago, that was the obvious next step for phones.
[08:47.560 --> 08:56.040] So we have, now we have, you could video call, audio call, or text, and people prefer texting
[08:56.040 --> 08:57.920] to audio and audio to video.
[08:57.920 --> 09:01.360] It's the exact opposite of what everyone predicted prior to...
[09:01.360 --> 09:04.160] Or, I mean, I think they all have different uses.
[09:04.160 --> 09:05.160] But that's the thing.
[09:05.160 --> 09:09.780] Until you put a technology in the hands of billions of people and see how they use it,
[09:09.780 --> 09:12.080] it's hard to predict.
[09:12.080 --> 09:17.320] Most futurists think we're going to use future technology like we use current technology.
[09:17.320 --> 09:19.560] So here's another fun example.
[09:19.560 --> 09:26.480] When commercial airplane travel was first, first becoming a thing, futurists imagined
[09:26.480 --> 09:31.280] that it would evolve into these gigantic luxury airplanes.
[09:31.280 --> 09:32.280] Flying hotels almost.
[09:32.280 --> 09:34.320] They were flying cruise ships, right?
[09:34.320 --> 09:35.620] Right, like luxury liners.
[09:35.620 --> 09:38.360] They were like luxury liners in the air.
[09:38.360 --> 09:45.080] That is how they were imagined because they assumed that the use and priorities, it's
[09:45.080 --> 09:50.600] all about luxury, right, would hold true even to, would translate to this new technology.
[09:50.600 --> 09:54.720] And they didn't anticipate, like, no, people are going to want to get there fast and cheap.
[09:54.720 --> 10:03.320] And now we've gone so far the other direction where we're crammed into these tiny seats.
[10:03.320 --> 10:07.720] And you could pay through the nose for a first class seat where you get a slightly bigger
[10:07.720 --> 10:08.720] seat.
[10:08.720 --> 10:09.720] Makes a difference.
[10:09.720 --> 10:13.840] Or lots of other airlines, lots of other airlines I've seen where you can go super ultra mega
[10:13.840 --> 10:20.760] first class where you literally get a TV this big, a little room, and a foot rub.
[10:20.760 --> 10:24.960] Somebody comes in and gives you a foot rub, but you're spending $40,000.
[10:24.960 --> 10:26.920] How many people are going to really do that?
[10:26.920 --> 10:32.080] And Bob, even that's nothing compared to the luxury liners that they imagined where it
[10:32.080 --> 10:36.080] was like you're living in a hotel while you're on the plane.
[10:36.080 --> 10:37.080] Completely different.
[10:37.080 --> 10:38.080] Yeah.
[10:38.080 --> 10:41.080] Kara, have you ever called the remote control the clicker?
[10:41.080 --> 10:42.080] I have.
[10:42.080 --> 10:43.080] Okay.
[10:43.080 --> 10:44.080] Yeah.
[10:44.080 --> 10:45.080] I have.
[10:45.080 --> 10:46.080] Yeah.
[10:46.080 --> 10:47.080] To the original remote device.
[10:47.080 --> 10:48.080] That's what it was tethered.
[10:48.080 --> 10:49.080] Which made a click noise.
[10:49.080 --> 10:50.080] No, no, no.
[10:50.080 --> 10:51.080] Yeah.
[10:51.080 --> 10:52.080] You would make a literal clicking sound.
[10:52.080 --> 10:53.080] The frequency, right.
[10:53.080 --> 10:57.720] When you hit the button, it would hit a, like, tuning fork rod, which would vibrate at a
[10:57.720 --> 11:01.920] specific frequency, and the TV would respond to that frequency.
[11:01.920 --> 11:03.640] So you had, like, three or four controls.
[11:03.640 --> 11:04.640] Three buttons.
[11:04.640 --> 11:05.640] That's it.
[11:05.640 --> 11:09.240] Yeah, like three or four buttons, like volume, you know, up, down, channel, up, down, on,
[11:09.240 --> 11:10.240] off.
[11:10.240 --> 11:11.240] That's it.
[11:11.240 --> 11:12.240] That's it.
[11:12.240 --> 11:14.560] Yeah, so people still call it the clicker.
[11:14.560 --> 11:15.560] We also still say tape.
[11:15.560 --> 11:17.120] Like, we're going to tape something.
[11:17.120 --> 11:18.120] Right.
[11:18.120 --> 11:19.120] Yeah.
[11:19.120 --> 11:20.120] When tape is nowhere in the loop anymore.
[11:20.120 --> 11:23.480] But they make it, those things, people understand what they mean.
[11:23.480 --> 11:24.480] Yeah.
[11:24.480 --> 11:25.480] Yeah.
[11:25.480 --> 11:26.480] Yeah.
[11:26.480 --> 11:29.800] And, you know, I promise all of you that are young, you'll feel old one day, too.
[11:29.800 --> 11:33.720] Whatever you think is normal now, it won't be in 30 years, and you'll be doing the same
[11:33.720 --> 11:34.720] thing.
[11:34.720 --> 11:35.720] Goddammit.
[11:35.720 --> 11:39.400] And it will probably just speed up.
[11:39.400 --> 11:40.400] Yeah.
[11:40.400 --> 11:41.400] Oh, gosh.
[11:41.400 --> 11:47.680] A 25-year-old and a 20-year and a 20-year-old might find, see dramatic differences as the
[11:47.680 --> 11:53.040] pace of increase, you know, accelerates, as it probably will.
[11:53.040 --> 11:56.960] And we're just skimming the surface of this book.
[11:56.960 --> 12:01.300] The third section of the book goes into science fiction technology.
[12:01.300 --> 12:06.560] So we go beyond actual technology where, like, the roots of it, even if, like, the beginnings
[12:06.560 --> 12:12.340] of it already exist, even if it's just a proof of concept or a theory at this point.
[12:12.340 --> 12:18.560] And then we just talk about crazy sci-fi tech and discuss, like, is this even possible?
[12:18.560 --> 12:20.360] Like lightsabers, you know, things like that.
[12:20.360 --> 12:21.360] Anti-gravity.
[12:21.360 --> 12:25.240] Is it even possible that we could possibly make a lightsaber?
[12:25.240 --> 12:26.440] And what would that be like?
[12:26.440 --> 12:31.240] And can you think about it, like, by the time, if you could make a lightsaber, that technology
[12:31.240 --> 12:33.720] would be useful for so many other things.
[12:33.720 --> 12:35.320] It would be so powerful.
[12:35.320 --> 12:36.320] That power source.
[12:36.320 --> 12:37.320] It would be a game changer.
[12:37.320 --> 12:39.920] I could plug that into my building and run my building off of that.
[12:39.920 --> 12:40.920] Yeah, right.
[12:40.920 --> 12:41.920] Exactly.
[12:41.920 --> 12:47.080] That's like the transporter, you know, like in Star Trek, you know, like, that one invention
[12:47.080 --> 12:48.080] would change reality.
[12:48.080 --> 12:50.680] It would change everybody's life.
[12:50.680 --> 12:53.320] In ways that, you know, would be impossible to predict.
[12:53.320 --> 12:54.320] Yeah.
[12:54.320 --> 12:58.200] Or my favorite, and we go into this in the book, the holodeck.
[12:58.200 --> 13:03.640] If you could do that, why would you confine that to one little room, right?
[13:03.640 --> 13:08.120] Why wouldn't the whole ship be a holodeck, right?
[13:08.120 --> 13:13.480] It would configure itself as needed to whatever functionality you needed anywhere on the ship,
[13:13.480 --> 13:18.240] except, you know, with the only exception of intricate machines that it couldn't make.
[13:18.240 --> 13:20.080] Assuming you had limitless power at your disposal.
[13:20.080 --> 13:22.680] Every room would become a room of requirement.
[13:22.680 --> 13:23.680] Yeah.
[13:23.680 --> 13:24.680] Basically.
[13:24.680 --> 13:25.680] Yeah.
[13:25.680 --> 13:26.680] Pretty much.
[13:26.680 --> 13:30.120] And all you would need is, give me a holodeck and a replicator, and I'm good.
[13:30.120 --> 13:31.120] I'm done.
[13:31.120 --> 13:32.120] Yeah.
[13:32.120 --> 13:33.120] See you.
[13:33.120 --> 13:34.120] See you at that point.
[13:34.120 --> 13:35.120] See you at that point.
[13:35.120 --> 13:39.160] You go into Bob's holodeck, like, 50 years later, and it would be like a Halloween planet.
[13:39.160 --> 13:40.160] Yeah.
[13:40.160 --> 13:41.160] He would have constructed, right?
[13:41.160 --> 13:42.160] Also, don't go in there with a black light.
[13:42.160 --> 13:43.160] Oh, my God.
[13:43.160 --> 13:44.160] I saw the joke, and I took it.
[13:44.160 --> 13:45.160] Yeah.
[13:45.160 --> 13:46.160] Holy shit.
[13:46.160 --> 13:54.800] We encourage anyone who's interested in any of the things we're talking about, anything
[13:54.800 --> 13:59.400] about futurism and future technology and existing technology and the history of technology,
[13:59.400 --> 14:04.200] all of that, and sci-fi stuff, to pre-order the book, The Skeptic's Guide to the Future.
[14:04.200 --> 14:09.320] If you're listening to this after September 27th, you can order the book directly, and
[14:09.320 --> 14:11.800] they'll send it to you.
[14:11.800 --> 14:15.480] You can get to the links on the SGU page.
[14:15.480 --> 14:19.960] You go to the, you know, slash books, and then that takes you to the publisher who has
[14:19.960 --> 14:23.040] all the actual links to specific sellers.
[14:23.040 --> 14:27.880] I also will remind you that this is our second book.
[14:27.880 --> 14:29.840] Don't forget about The Skeptic's Guide to the Universe.
[14:29.840 --> 14:30.840] That's our first book.
[14:30.840 --> 14:32.640] It's still selling quite well, actually.
[14:32.640 --> 14:33.640] Yeah.
[14:33.640 --> 14:35.840] Let's get to some actual content.
[14:35.840 --> 14:36.840] Bob.
[14:36.840 --> 14:37.840] Oh, boy.
Forgotten Superheroes of Science (14:37)
- Raye Jean Montague, American naval engineer credited with creating the first computer-generated rough draft of a U.S. naval ship
[14:37.840 --> 14:38.840] You're going to do a Forgotten Superhero of Science.
[14:38.840 --> 14:39.840] Yeah.
[14:39.840 --> 14:40.840] I haven't done this in a while.
[14:40.840 --> 14:42.940] So, yes, Forgotten Superheroes of Science.
[14:42.940 --> 14:51.680] This is Ray Jean Montague, 1935 to 2018, naval engineer and the first female program manager
[14:51.680 --> 14:54.120] of ships in the United States Navy.
[14:54.120 --> 14:59.160] In her own words, she said, I'm known as the first person to design a ship using the computer.
[14:59.160 --> 15:00.160] Cool.
[15:00.160 --> 15:04.920] Montague was inspired early in life when, for her, you know, her scientific career.
[15:04.920 --> 15:09.480] When she was seven, I believe in 1940, her grandfather took her on a tour of a captured
[15:09.480 --> 15:10.480] German sub.
[15:10.480 --> 15:11.480] Wow.
[15:11.480 --> 15:15.560] And she said, she's quoted as saying about that experience, I looked through the periscope
[15:15.560 --> 15:17.840] and saw all these dials and mechanisms.
[15:17.840 --> 15:23.080] And I said to the guy who was giving the tour, what do you have to know to do this?
[15:23.080 --> 15:26.020] And he replied, oh, you'd have to be an engineer.
[15:26.020 --> 15:28.040] You don't have to worry about that.
[15:28.040 --> 15:32.840] And the implication, of course, a young black girl, you know, is never going to become an
[15:32.840 --> 15:33.840] engineer.
[15:33.840 --> 15:35.680] And don't forget, and also this was like in the 1940s.
[15:35.680 --> 15:40.400] So imagine, you know, the attitudes then for somebody like that becoming an engineer.
[15:40.400 --> 15:43.080] I mean, it's almost unimaginable how bad it was.
[15:43.080 --> 15:44.440] You know, today it's not great.
[15:44.440 --> 15:45.800] Back then, oof.
[15:45.800 --> 15:51.840] But Montague joined the United States Navy in 1955 in Washington, D.C.
[15:51.840 --> 15:53.560] And she was a clerk typist.
[15:53.560 --> 15:57.280] And she was sitting right next to the Univac One.
[15:57.280 --> 15:58.280] Univac One.
[15:58.280 --> 15:59.280] Univac.
[15:59.280 --> 16:00.280] Yeah.
[16:00.280 --> 16:04.520] So if you remember, the ENIAC was the first programmable, electronic, general purpose
[16:04.520 --> 16:06.080] digital computer.
[16:06.080 --> 16:09.440] There were other computers at that time that had some of those capabilities.
[16:09.440 --> 16:13.720] But that was the first one to have pretty much all of that at the same time.
[16:13.720 --> 16:16.220] And it was completed in 1945.
[16:16.220 --> 16:19.360] And it was used for the United States Army's Ballistic Research Lab.
[16:19.360 --> 16:22.480] Of course, it was an amazing tool.
[16:22.480 --> 16:24.600] Of course, it was, you know, it was a computer.
[16:24.600 --> 16:29.520] Univac One was essentially the business version of the ENIAC.
[16:29.520 --> 16:30.840] That's basically what that was.
[16:30.840 --> 16:35.240] It was the very first successful civilian computer.
[16:35.240 --> 16:39.720] And it was obviously, that was a critical piece of the dawn of the computer age.
[16:39.720 --> 16:43.720] I mean, it's a milestone of milestones right there.
[16:43.720 --> 16:45.520] And she was sitting right next to it.
[16:45.520 --> 16:46.840] She was working next to it.
[16:46.840 --> 16:50.920] And the story goes that one day, a lot, all of the engineers called in sick for whatever
[16:50.920 --> 16:51.920] reason.
[16:51.920 --> 16:53.300] I don't know if they were really partying the night before.
[16:53.300 --> 16:54.360] But none of them came in.
[16:54.360 --> 17:00.360] And she was able to dive right in and accomplish some work on the Univac One because she had
[17:00.360 --> 17:04.720] seen and she had observed the engineers using it for quite a while.
[17:04.720 --> 17:08.160] Soon after that, she was studying computer programming at night school.
[17:08.160 --> 17:11.920] And then the promotions seemed to come very, very quickly for her.
[17:11.920 --> 17:17.520] She was appointed as a computer systems analyst at the Navy Ship Engineering Center.
[17:17.520 --> 17:22.280] And then program director for the Naval Sea Systems Command Integrated Design Manufacturing
[17:22.280 --> 17:24.240] and Maintenance Program.
[17:24.240 --> 17:30.680] And then division head for the Computer Aided Design and Computer Aided Manufacturing, CAD,
[17:30.680 --> 17:37.120] CAD-CAM program, and deputy program manager of the Navy's Information Systems Improvement
[17:37.120 --> 17:38.120] Program.
[17:38.120 --> 17:40.600] So lots of titles, lots of responsibilities.
[17:40.600 --> 17:47.920] And then back in 1971, her department was challenged with a task to create a computer
[17:47.920 --> 17:52.240] generated ship design, had never really been done before.
[17:52.240 --> 17:56.640] She pulled together a lot of systems, some automated systems that had been created, pulled
[17:56.640 --> 17:57.640] them together.
[17:57.640 --> 18:06.000] And within 19 hours, she had an initial draft for an Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate.
[18:06.000 --> 18:08.960] Perry class frigate, I like the sound of that.
[18:08.960 --> 18:15.200] Within 19 hours, that made her the first person to design a ship using a computer system.
[18:15.200 --> 18:21.280] And then after that, she worked on Sea Wolf class submarines, Nimitz class aircraft carriers,
[18:21.280 --> 18:22.560] and Dwight D. Azenhower.
[18:22.560 --> 18:28.560] And just amazing to think she started as a clerk typist, and she ultimately was doing
[18:28.560 --> 18:31.720] amazing things and breaking ground.
[18:31.720 --> 18:32.720] And being the first.
[18:32.720 --> 18:33.720] What a life.
[18:33.720 --> 18:34.720] Incredible.
[18:34.720 --> 18:36.120] Being involved in all those different things, that is fantastic.
[18:36.120 --> 18:37.120] Amazing.
[18:37.120 --> 18:43.880] And also, you can imagine the pushback she got being a black woman at that time.
[18:43.880 --> 18:46.040] So I'm sure that wasn't easy as well.
[18:46.040 --> 18:51.720] Well, it's a testament to just how unbelievably talented and intelligent she was.
[18:51.720 --> 18:54.400] She had to blow people's minds in order to get there.
[18:54.400 --> 18:55.400] Absolutely.
[18:55.400 --> 19:00.480] And that's a common thread in a lot of these superhero segments that I've done, where they
[19:00.480 --> 19:06.040] were so superior that it couldn't be denied in a lot of cases.
[19:06.040 --> 19:10.720] And that's unfortunate that you have to be so amazing just to get the same opportunities
[19:10.720 --> 19:13.520] that people who are average amazing have.
[19:13.520 --> 19:14.840] All right.
[19:14.840 --> 19:20.760] So remember, the United States Navy's hidden figure, Ray Jean Montague.
[19:20.760 --> 19:24.600] Mention her to your friends, or Jay, mention her to your friend, especially when you're
[19:24.600 --> 19:25.600] discussing-
[19:25.600 --> 19:26.600] You're just Bob.
[19:26.600 --> 19:27.600] It's just me.
[19:27.600 --> 19:29.440] It's just Bob.
[19:29.440 --> 19:35.120] Especially when discussing drawing interchange formats, cattle bar arrangements, or especially
[19:35.120 --> 19:36.640] geometric modeling kernels.
[19:36.640 --> 19:37.640] Ooh, I like those.
[19:37.640 --> 19:38.640] Yes.
[19:38.640 --> 19:39.640] Thank you.
News Items
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Are Fake Meats Sustainable? (19:39)
[19:39.640 --> 19:42.480] All right, Jay, tell us about the future of vat-grown meat.
[19:42.480 --> 19:45.620] This isn't the future of vat-grown meat.
[19:45.620 --> 19:50.800] It's more about the difference between plant-based meats and traditional-
[19:50.800 --> 19:51.800] And meat-based meats?
[19:51.800 --> 19:54.640] And meat-based meats that are happening today.
[19:54.640 --> 20:01.640] And the real question here when we compare the two is, how sustainable are these plant-based
[20:01.640 --> 20:03.260] meats?
[20:03.260 --> 20:05.520] What is the profile?
[20:05.520 --> 20:09.840] After doing some research and reading about it, it's pretty interesting how we got to
[20:09.840 --> 20:15.000] plant-based meats, and then we're comparing the energy and resources that it takes to
[20:15.000 --> 20:18.240] create them versus traditional meats.
[20:18.240 --> 20:23.440] So as everybody knows, a lot of people eat meat, and unfortunately, meat demand, if anything,
[20:23.440 --> 20:24.440] it's just going up.
[20:24.440 --> 20:31.640] I have to admit, the older I get, I am way more conscious now about my meat-eating usage.
[20:31.640 --> 20:33.840] I try to lower it as much as possible.
[20:33.840 --> 20:39.300] And as much as I do love meatballs and everything, I don't let myself go there.
[20:39.300 --> 20:42.640] It's like maybe once every couple of months at this point, where it was more like every
[20:42.640 --> 20:44.640] two weeks, which is a big difference for me.
[20:44.640 --> 20:46.120] Every two weeks is fine.
[20:46.120 --> 20:47.360] Yeah.
[20:47.360 --> 20:51.000] The other thing about just eating traditional meat is that it is-
[20:51.000 --> 20:52.560] Once a week is fine.
[20:52.560 --> 20:56.120] It takes a significant toll on the environment.
[20:56.120 --> 21:01.840] Traditional agriculture promotes deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, air and water pollution.
[21:01.840 --> 21:07.560] So eating meat is just not helping global warming, which is getting worse, and everything
[21:07.560 --> 21:09.200] seems to be getting worse.
[21:09.200 --> 21:14.800] But just as I have to say, because we've covered this topic before, just to give it more nuance
[21:14.800 --> 21:20.240] to that, that doesn't mean zero meat consumption is what's optimal.
[21:20.240 --> 21:23.440] And I know this is controversial, because there are some people who think that that
[21:23.440 --> 21:29.800] is the case, but when we've done a deep dive on this topic, I think it's a fairer summary
[21:29.800 --> 21:34.400] is that we should really have a lot less meat consumption, but not zero, because there's
[21:34.400 --> 21:43.060] an integrated agricultural system where animals are good at converting non-human calories
[21:43.060 --> 21:44.900] into human calories.
[21:44.900 --> 21:48.600] So there can be an efficiency there.
[21:48.600 --> 21:53.840] And they can use land, which is not usable for growing food for people, and they can
[21:53.840 --> 21:57.460] eat food that people can eat and then convert that into food.
[21:57.460 --> 21:59.440] And they produce a lot of fertilizer.
[21:59.440 --> 22:02.440] Half of our food we grow with cattle manure.
[22:02.440 --> 22:06.840] So if they all went away, that would be a huge problem for the agricultural system.
[22:06.840 --> 22:09.160] So you're saying there's a healthy balance in there somewhere.
[22:09.160 --> 22:10.160] Yeah.
[22:10.160 --> 22:11.660] There's probably a sweet spot in there somewhere.
[22:11.660 --> 22:16.000] We're not at it right now, where I think we're just- Demand is requiring that we produce
[22:16.000 --> 22:18.160] more meat than is optimal for the system.
[22:18.160 --> 22:23.040] But not to imply that there's a consensus that we need to go to zero meat consumption.
[22:23.040 --> 22:28.660] And there's studies that show that a meat consumption at certain levels is perfectly
[22:28.660 --> 22:32.240] healthy and is not going to give you a heart attack.
[22:32.240 --> 22:36.660] So approximately 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock.
[22:36.660 --> 22:40.460] And like I said, it's only going to go up as demand for meat goes up.
[22:40.460 --> 22:46.640] They're saying that there will be a 15% increase in meat demand in the next decade.
[22:46.640 --> 22:47.640] That is significant.
[22:47.640 --> 22:49.800] That is way more than I would have guessed.
[22:49.800 --> 22:51.840] Greenhouse gases come from where?
[22:51.840 --> 22:55.560] When you're talking about grazing animals like sheep, goats, and cows, right?
[22:55.560 --> 23:00.640] These animals burp methane that comes from them digesting grasses and the like.
[23:00.640 --> 23:04.980] So greenhouse gases also happen to come from chemicals that are used to grow feed.
[23:04.980 --> 23:09.240] So there's lots of things in the industry that are the result of these greenhouse gases.
[23:09.240 --> 23:13.800] So interestingly, chickens and pigs have much lower gas emissions than cows, which I did
[23:13.800 --> 23:14.960] not know.
[23:14.960 --> 23:17.900] They're also better at converting the calories they eat into muscle.
[23:17.900 --> 23:22.120] So for example, when we compare chickens, pigs, and cows, chickens need to eat about
[23:22.120 --> 23:26.560] two pounds of feed for each pound of edible tissue gained.
[23:26.560 --> 23:28.940] Pigs need three to five pounds of feed.
[23:28.940 --> 23:29.940] And cows need-
[23:29.940 --> 23:30.940] Per pound.
[23:30.940 --> 23:31.940] What?
[23:31.940 --> 23:32.940] Per pound.
[23:32.940 --> 23:33.940] Yeah, everything is per pound.
[23:33.940 --> 23:36.360] So a pig needs to eat three to five pounds of feed to make an edible pound.
[23:36.360 --> 23:38.960] And then cows need six to 10 pounds of feed.
[23:38.960 --> 23:39.960] Whoa.
[23:39.960 --> 23:40.960] Yeah.
[23:40.960 --> 23:41.960] So it's a really big difference here.
[23:41.960 --> 23:45.000] Pigs are even worse, they're like 15, 16.
[23:45.000 --> 23:47.000] And fish are close to one to one.
[23:47.000 --> 23:48.000] Wow.
[23:48.000 --> 23:49.000] Yeah, fish are the best.
[23:49.000 --> 23:53.600] Goats and sheep are pretty bad, but they're not consumed in as large quantities across
[23:53.600 --> 23:55.840] the globe as cows.
[23:55.840 --> 24:00.360] Just reading these stats, like eat chicken and fish, that's a good shift in your meat
[24:00.360 --> 24:01.360] right there.
[24:01.360 --> 24:02.840] Just focus on them.
[24:02.840 --> 24:09.760] Cows produce six times more gas than pigs and approximately nine times more than chickens.
[24:09.760 --> 24:14.520] So they are clearly the biggest problem when it comes to grazing animals.
[24:14.520 --> 24:17.920] So today we have products that simulate the taste of meat.
[24:17.920 --> 24:21.160] And they're completely plant-based, and I don't know if you guys have ever tried them,
[24:21.160 --> 24:22.160] but I have.
[24:22.160 --> 24:23.160] I have.
[24:23.160 --> 24:24.160] I've tried them all.
[24:24.160 --> 24:25.160] I'll tell you about it.
[24:25.160 --> 24:26.160] They taste nothing like meat.
[24:26.160 --> 24:27.160] So plant-
[24:27.160 --> 24:28.160] I love Impossible Burger.
[24:28.160 --> 24:29.160] Taste or texture?
[24:29.160 --> 24:30.160] Impossible Burger, Steve, you would not know the difference.
[24:30.160 --> 24:31.160] Oh, absolutely, I know the difference.
[24:31.160 --> 24:32.160] You've had it.
[24:32.160 --> 24:34.280] No, you know the difference, but they're the closest, I think.
[24:34.280 --> 24:35.280] If somebody gave it to-
[24:35.280 --> 24:36.280] I've had them.
[24:36.280 --> 24:38.280] If somebody gave it to me and didn't tell me, I wouldn't even realize it.
[24:38.280 --> 24:39.600] Yeah, for a hamburger, it's fine.
[24:39.600 --> 24:40.600] I mean-
[24:40.600 --> 24:41.600] It's just a little bit weirder.
[24:41.600 --> 24:42.600] That's a separate question.
[24:42.600 --> 24:44.560] I mean, they taste fine.
[24:44.560 --> 24:46.800] I would never confuse it for beef.
[24:46.800 --> 24:47.800] Right.
[24:47.800 --> 24:48.800] But they taste fine.
[24:48.800 --> 24:49.800] I think it tastes better than beef.
[24:49.800 --> 24:50.800] That's different.
[24:50.800 --> 24:51.800] Okay.
[24:51.800 --> 24:52.800] You just have a plain-
[24:52.800 --> 24:53.800] How good it is is a different question than how much-
[24:53.800 --> 24:54.800] What do you have on your hamburger?
[24:54.800 --> 24:55.800] Yeah, the whole shebang.
[24:55.800 --> 24:56.800] Yeah, pickles.
[24:56.800 --> 24:58.640] By the time you put all your condiments, you know, like how much are you, you know.
[24:58.640 --> 25:03.920] So plant-based foods create significantly lower levels of greenhouse gases than meat-based
[25:03.920 --> 25:04.920] foods.
[25:04.920 --> 25:09.080] During the 12-hour show, and this is my anecdote, last year, right, when we do that, a year
[25:09.080 --> 25:12.440] ago last spring, I cooked meatballs for everybody in real time.
[25:12.440 --> 25:18.220] And I also made Ian, because Ian is a vegetarian, I made him plant-based meatballs.
[25:18.220 --> 25:20.960] And I got to tell you, legit, they tasted good.
[25:20.960 --> 25:21.960] They were good.
[25:21.960 --> 25:22.960] They weren't-
[25:22.960 --> 25:23.960] What did you use?
[25:23.960 --> 25:26.440] You know, they weren't beef, but they were a very good flavor and the texture was fantastic.
[25:26.440 --> 25:28.440] So I wasn't really that disappointed in them.
[25:28.440 --> 25:29.680] Jay, what did you use?
[25:29.680 --> 25:31.520] I used Impossible Burger meat.
[25:31.520 --> 25:32.520] Impossible, okay.
[25:32.520 --> 25:33.520] Yeah.
[25:33.520 --> 25:38.840] I've also had Shepherd's Pie made completely out of Impossible Burger, and that was fantastic.
[25:38.840 --> 25:44.360] Because it's heavy with, you know, spices, so it obfuscates the flavor.
[25:44.360 --> 25:49.560] So the point of me saying this is you could use plant-based meats in dishes where, you
[25:49.560 --> 25:53.000] know, there's a lot of spices and everything, like for tacos and things like that.
[25:53.000 --> 25:56.820] Like, you could just think about swapping that in right away because it tastes fantastic.
[25:56.820 --> 26:01.740] So researchers were able to make a plant-based product that has similar traits as real meat
[26:01.740 --> 26:05.000] by figuring out exactly what makes meat meat.
[26:05.000 --> 26:07.020] You know, why does meat taste like meat?
[26:07.020 --> 26:08.520] Why does it have the texture that it has?
[26:08.520 --> 26:10.520] Why does it have the flavors that it has?
[26:10.520 --> 26:15.440] So as an example, many of the products that they use, like coconut oil is a great example.
[26:15.440 --> 26:20.800] They use coconut oil, I believe, in Impossible Burger because it has a similar animal fats
[26:20.800 --> 26:22.880] feel in your mouth.
[26:22.880 --> 26:25.760] Kara, it seems to me like you and I talk about heme quite a bit.
[26:25.760 --> 26:27.800] For some reason, you and I are always chit-chatting about heme.
[26:27.800 --> 26:28.800] Leg hemoglobin.
[26:28.800 --> 26:29.800] Hem!
[26:29.800 --> 26:30.800] Yeah.
[26:30.800 --> 26:31.800] Hemoglobin.
[26:31.800 --> 26:32.800] So this heme is the red liquid.
[26:32.800 --> 26:33.800] Now, this isn't blood.
[26:33.800 --> 26:40.320] It's the red liquid protein that comes out of meats if you have a steak or even ground
[26:40.320 --> 26:41.320] beef.
[26:41.320 --> 26:43.280] If you squeeze it, you see this red liquid come out.
[26:43.280 --> 26:44.280] It's blood, Jay.
[26:44.280 --> 26:45.280] By the way, it's not a red liquid.
[26:45.280 --> 26:46.280] It's not a red liquid.
[26:46.280 --> 26:47.280] It's blood.
[26:47.280 --> 26:48.280] It's not exactly blood, Steve.
[26:48.280 --> 26:49.280] It's a part of blood.
[26:49.280 --> 26:50.280] Yeah, it's a part of blood.
[26:50.280 --> 26:51.280] Watery blood.
[26:51.280 --> 26:52.720] It's a part of blood, and it's pretty amazing.
[26:52.720 --> 26:58.040] When I visited the Impossible headquarters for a TV show, I had to taste leg hemoglobin,
[26:58.040 --> 27:03.680] which is the version that they use, the plant-based version they use in Impossible Meat.
[27:03.680 --> 27:09.800] And it tastes like your mouth is full of blood, like it's gross to just eat on its own.
[27:09.800 --> 27:10.800] It makes you feel weird.
[27:10.800 --> 27:11.800] That's right.
[27:11.800 --> 27:12.800] And you're not supposed to.
[27:12.800 --> 27:16.720] But Kara, the point is, and I want to make this perfectly clear, they made a plant-based
[27:16.720 --> 27:17.720] version of heme.
[27:17.720 --> 27:19.960] Well, all plants have it.
[27:19.960 --> 27:24.800] They just were able to, first they isolated it from soy.
[27:24.800 --> 27:29.120] And then when they realized that the quantity that they could get was so tiny, they started
[27:29.120 --> 27:33.840] genetically engineering yeast to produce it, because it's just so much more efficient to
[27:33.840 --> 27:34.840] do it that way.
[27:34.840 --> 27:35.840] Yeah.
[27:35.840 --> 27:40.520] And so they cultivate these yeast, and then they create reactors that the yeast can multiply
[27:40.520 --> 27:41.520] in.
[27:41.520 --> 27:42.520] And then it cranks.
[27:42.520 --> 27:43.520] This is like insulin.
[27:43.520 --> 27:44.520] You know what I mean?
[27:44.520 --> 27:45.760] This is, by the way, is how insulin is made.
[27:45.760 --> 27:50.380] So taking a close look at how much energy is needed to produce these products will answer
[27:50.380 --> 27:55.560] the overall question that I'm putting to everybody here, is how much better is plant-based meats
[27:55.560 --> 27:57.500] for the environment than regular meat?
[27:57.500 --> 27:59.680] So let me give you guys a little bit of a background here.
[27:59.680 --> 28:03.840] So each ingredient needs to be traced back to where it comes from, from all the processes,
[28:03.840 --> 28:04.840] right?
[28:04.840 --> 28:08.480] There's a ton of processes that they need to get through in order for it to be the final
[28:08.480 --> 28:10.440] version that's found in plant-based meats.
[28:10.440 --> 28:13.420] And this is called life cycle analysis.
[28:13.420 --> 28:16.080] So for example, each ingredient is what?
[28:16.080 --> 28:20.280] They're farmed, because they're plants, they're transported, and then they're processed.
[28:20.280 --> 28:24.520] And in each of those three stages, there's a lot of things happening, and that they had
[28:24.520 --> 28:28.280] to track all of those different steps and every single thing that happens.
[28:28.280 --> 28:33.160] So each step along the way uses fuel, uses water, uses land, uses chemicals, and they
[28:33.160 --> 28:36.840] have to total up all this information for each ingredient, and that gives us the final
[28:36.840 --> 28:37.840] answer.
[28:37.840 --> 28:42.560] But the snag is, because there's always a freaking snag, is that the information wasn't
[28:42.560 --> 28:44.960] readily available to these researchers.
[28:44.960 --> 28:49.800] The companies that make plant-based meats, they're keeping their products and ingredients
[28:49.800 --> 28:54.160] and all of that information to themselves because it's proprietary.
[28:54.160 --> 28:57.560] They don't want to say, here's everything that we do and every single process that we
[28:57.560 --> 29:02.320] use because that is part of their company's business.
[29:02.320 --> 29:03.320] It does make sense.
[29:03.320 --> 29:07.160] I don't think they're doing it for malfeasance.
[29:07.160 --> 29:10.400] They're doing it because they don't want other companies to copy what they're doing.
[29:10.400 --> 29:12.120] It is their intellectual property.
[29:12.120 --> 29:17.160] So scientists had to rely on information that these companies shared about their products.
[29:17.160 --> 29:18.960] That is the one disclosure that I have here.
[29:18.960 --> 29:24.880] I'm just assuming that they gave a relatively accurate rendition of what's actually taking
[29:24.880 --> 29:25.880] place.
[29:25.880 --> 29:32.320] So to get to some numbers, Impossible Burger production only creates 11% of the greenhouse
[29:32.320 --> 29:35.400] gases produced by the same amount of beef.
[29:35.400 --> 29:36.880] That is significantly less.
[29:36.880 --> 29:38.440] Yeah, that's significant.
[29:38.440 --> 29:41.720] Other plant-based meat producers were showing similar numbers as well.
[29:41.720 --> 29:49.600] So compared to pork and chicken, pork was 37% of beef and chicken was 57%, which is
[29:49.600 --> 29:51.600] even better.
[29:51.600 --> 29:56.900] These numbers are pretty significant when you think about the impact on the environment.
[29:56.900 --> 30:02.760] Researchers also found that the amount of water used was only 23% of that in beef, 11%
[30:02.760 --> 30:05.840] used by pork and 24% in chicken for equal amounts of protein.
[30:05.840 --> 30:08.720] So they're dramatically less.
[30:08.720 --> 30:11.120] Land use has huge differences as well.
[30:11.120 --> 30:17.880] Deforested use was 2% of what beef uses for the same amount of protein, 2%, 18% for pork
[30:17.880 --> 30:20.320] and 23% for chicken.
[30:20.320 --> 30:26.240] Land use is important because, you know what, land is very important here because there
[30:26.240 --> 30:31.680] is a potential huge amount of carbon storage that an acre of land can have.
[30:31.680 --> 30:38.840] And when you're deforesting tens of thousands of acres, unfortunately, of the Amazon, you're
[30:38.840 --> 30:42.960] getting rid of an incredible amount of vegetation that's holding a lot of carbon.
[30:42.960 --> 30:43.960] So it all adds up.
[30:43.960 --> 30:48.120] But again, you know, there's always multiple angles here.
[30:48.120 --> 30:52.900] Land that cattle are grazing on is not rainforest, right?
[30:52.900 --> 30:58.820] And so a lot of that land use is not arable land or land that we could be using for agriculture.
[30:58.820 --> 31:07.040] And there is a separate movement, like another way to mitigate the resource use of cows and
[31:07.040 --> 31:20.120] meat, you know, meat-based animals, is to feed them more of the refuse, you know.
[31:20.120 --> 31:22.320] You don't grow grains to feed them.
[31:22.320 --> 31:27.200] You feed them the leftover stuff from human agriculture.
[31:27.200 --> 31:30.680] So that is more of like a circular system.
[31:30.680 --> 31:34.520] So it remains to be seen how far that can go.
[31:34.520 --> 31:37.880] But there is a huge movement in agriculture to do that.
[31:37.880 --> 31:40.440] I just read a recent news item about that.
[31:40.440 --> 31:44.440] Steve, they are clearing Amazon forest for grazing purposes.
[31:44.440 --> 31:51.120] And soybeans are also huge, very high on the list of what's being grown in former Amazon
[31:51.120 --> 31:52.720] forest right now.
[31:52.720 --> 31:54.000] So it is a problem.
[31:54.000 --> 31:56.040] And you know, they're racking back those.
[31:56.040 --> 31:57.320] That's a separate problem.
[31:57.320 --> 32:00.280] Even without animals, that's a problem.
[32:00.280 --> 32:06.160] And you know, even if they're just growing crops, whether animals are in the mix or not,
[32:06.160 --> 32:09.040] that's the worst thing they could be doing is, you know, what they're essentially doing
[32:09.040 --> 32:15.520] is burning down the forest and then planting crops to get all the nutrients out of that.
[32:15.520 --> 32:17.760] And then they move on once they...
[32:17.760 --> 32:19.600] It's not even burning down a forest.
[32:19.600 --> 32:24.000] They're like burning down libraries, essentially, I mean, because you've got genetic diversity
[32:24.000 --> 32:26.040] in those rainforests.
[32:26.040 --> 32:27.040] And they're isolated.
[32:27.040 --> 32:31.000] You have a genetic diversified area that is unique.
[32:31.000 --> 32:35.960] And once that's gone, that is gone, it's millions of years of evolution, now gone that we will
[32:35.960 --> 32:36.960] never retrieve.
[32:36.960 --> 32:40.480] There could be amazing drugs in there, amazing genetic information that is gone.
[32:40.480 --> 32:44.160] So it's so far worse than just burning down trees and stuff.
[32:44.160 --> 32:48.920] There are alternatives, like you can farm the forest, right?
[32:48.920 --> 32:55.520] You can plant and cultivate and whatever things that will grow within the forest without having
[32:55.520 --> 32:57.200] to destroy the forest itself.
[32:57.200 --> 33:00.200] Yeah, like castanhas, like Brazil nut trees, they're really sustainable.
[33:00.200 --> 33:05.560] It's a great way to harvest things that are already growing there and not disrupt the
[33:05.560 --> 33:06.560] ecosystem.
[33:06.560 --> 33:11.460] And they could also use the land they're already using for farming better by planting things
[33:11.460 --> 33:15.600] which regenerate the soil that are also cash crops, you know.
[33:15.600 --> 33:17.080] But so they're just not doing it smartly.
[33:17.080 --> 33:18.240] They're not doing it well.
[33:18.240 --> 33:22.520] Well, in some areas, people really are doing it smartly, and in other areas there's too
[33:22.520 --> 33:27.540] much demand and the cost is too high and individuals are going to do what they need to do to maintain
[33:27.540 --> 33:28.540] their livelihood.
[33:28.540 --> 33:29.540] Absolutely.
[33:29.540 --> 33:31.880] So this is way bigger than the boots on the ground in the Amazon.
[33:31.880 --> 33:36.480] It's the pressure from countries like ours asking for tropical hardwoods and asking for
[33:36.480 --> 33:41.240] more crops to be grown and more animals to be produced in those areas.
[33:41.240 --> 33:46.600] Jay, I think it's important to note because I've been looking at the comments that a lot
[33:46.600 --> 33:54.640] of these lab grown or synthetic meats that try to emulate real meat, the target audience
[33:54.640 --> 33:59.600] is not people who are already not eating meat because you hear a lot of times people going,
[33:59.600 --> 34:00.600] it grosses me out.
[34:00.600 --> 34:01.700] It tastes too much like real meat.
[34:01.700 --> 34:03.960] I don't want to eat fake meat.
[34:03.960 --> 34:04.960] It's not for you.
[34:04.960 --> 34:05.960] Yeah.
[34:05.960 --> 34:10.120] The idea that like the CEO of Impossible when I interviewed him, I think Pat Brown is his
[34:10.120 --> 34:15.360] name, he was very clear, I wanted to develop this so that I could give an alternative to
[34:15.360 --> 34:20.400] people who are doing the environmental harm, people who are eating large quantities of
[34:20.400 --> 34:21.400] meat.
[34:21.400 --> 34:22.400] Exactly.
[34:22.400 --> 34:25.720] So that they have an option to do better without giving up what they love.
[34:25.720 --> 34:32.840] So I think the meta problem here is that, yeah, there are smart agricultural practices.
[34:32.840 --> 34:35.200] There are optimal agricultural practices.
[34:35.200 --> 34:39.000] We can get the system to be more circular and work together better.
[34:39.000 --> 34:44.460] But it's not like there is a world agricultural organization that actually controls what every
[34:44.460 --> 34:46.160] farmer does.
[34:46.160 --> 34:50.500] And so what you have is individual farmers making individual decisions that are in their
[34:50.500 --> 34:52.840] best interest.
[34:52.840 --> 34:57.440] And a lot of the times it's like, well, they're making decisions so they don't starve.
[34:57.440 --> 35:01.160] They're making decisions so that they don't lose money doing what they're doing.
[35:01.160 --> 35:04.560] The margins are so razor thin with agriculture.
[35:04.560 --> 35:11.000] And so they're not necessarily doing what's optimal for the whole system, but we're at
[35:11.000 --> 35:15.720] a point with eight billion people on the planet where we're already basically using up all
[35:15.720 --> 35:20.800] the arable land and because of global warming, where we need the whole system to be efficient
[35:20.800 --> 35:22.020] together.
[35:22.020 --> 35:26.760] And that's really what we're talking about is moving towards an integrated system that's
[35:26.760 --> 35:28.640] coordinated and that's optimal.
[35:28.640 --> 35:35.340] And that may mean having to pay poor people to not do stuff or paying to give them better
[35:35.340 --> 35:38.760] ways to do things or integrating it better.
[35:38.760 --> 35:43.240] But again, individuals will make smart decisions for themselves that are not good for the whole
[35:43.240 --> 35:44.240] system.
[35:44.240 --> 35:45.240] That's really the problem.
[35:45.240 --> 35:46.240] Right.
[35:46.240 --> 35:47.240] That's why we have poaching.
[35:47.240 --> 35:49.660] That's why we have gold mining in the Amazon, because it's the only option these people
[35:49.660 --> 35:52.120] have.
[35:52.120 --> 35:56.520] I think it's fair to note here, there are some drawbacks to plant-based meats.
[35:56.520 --> 36:02.000] Right now they cost 43% more than products that they're trying to replace, which is a
[36:02.000 --> 36:03.000] lot.
[36:03.000 --> 36:06.880] And I did go on, I did some online searching and verified that that's true.
[36:06.880 --> 36:11.080] Which is another point, like if you're like a poor farmer in Africa, sometimes animal
[36:11.080 --> 36:14.580] protein is the cheapest, best protein you can get access to.
[36:14.580 --> 36:16.840] And that's very important for certain people.
[36:16.840 --> 36:21.000] Again, we can't just look at this from our perspective where like we have no issues with
[36:21.000 --> 36:24.040] getting enough food or calories or high quality proteins or stuff.
[36:24.040 --> 36:28.100] When most of the world is living on the edge, we have to be very careful about any changes
[36:28.100 --> 36:29.100] that we make.
[36:29.100 --> 36:34.680] And right now, plant-based meats are only 1% of the market, which is basically almost
[36:34.680 --> 36:35.760] nothing.
[36:35.760 --> 36:41.880] I would just like to say at this point, eat green leafy vegetables, eat beans, eat grains.
[36:41.880 --> 36:45.320] This is much healthier than predominantly eating meats.
[36:45.320 --> 36:48.920] Well, it's all about balance, but we definitely should eat more of that, and we are generally
[36:48.920 --> 36:49.920] in the West.
[36:49.920 --> 36:53.260] Well, everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about our sponsor
[36:53.260 --> 36:54.760] this week, BetterHelp.
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[37:16.120 --> 37:17.120] that.
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[37:24.320 --> 37:27.800] folks where it's, you know, it fits better within your day.
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[37:31.780 --> 37:35.440] Being able to talk to somebody online can be really a lifesaver.
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[38:04.480 --> 38:06.720] All right, guys, let's get back to the show.
Why Go Back to the Moon? (38:08)
[38:06.720 --> 38:11.760] Bob, you're going to talk to us about whether or not we should go back to the moon or why
[38:11.760 --> 38:13.360] should we go back to the moon?
[38:13.360 --> 38:14.360] OK.
[38:14.360 --> 38:15.360] In a half hour, good luck.
[38:15.360 --> 38:16.360] Yeah.
[38:16.360 --> 38:18.840] So 1962, September 12th.
[38:18.840 --> 38:19.840] What happened?
[38:19.840 --> 38:23.440] JFK did his, he announced his public plan.
[38:23.440 --> 38:24.440] The moonshot speech.
[38:24.440 --> 38:26.480] The first man on the moon at the end of the decade, right?
[38:26.480 --> 38:28.840] Big, big, huge milestone.
[38:28.840 --> 38:33.560] And now it's 60 years later, 60 years later, and the United States is about to launch the
[38:33.560 --> 38:37.480] first mission of the Artemis program to go back to the moon.
[38:37.480 --> 38:41.720] There's a lot of people that are saying that, ah, let's go to Mars.
[38:41.720 --> 38:48.720] For example, Apollo 11 astronaut J. Michael Collins, he and Mars Society founder Robert
[38:48.720 --> 38:54.080] Zubrin, both of them have long been advocates of America going directly to Mars and not
[38:54.080 --> 38:55.080] the moon.
[38:55.080 --> 38:56.080] So-
[38:56.080 --> 38:57.080] He's biased.
[38:57.080 --> 38:58.080] When you've been to the moon, eh, go to Mars.
[38:58.080 --> 38:59.080] Right?
[38:59.080 --> 39:03.320] So, you know, it's not unreasonable to say, all right, why are we going back?
[39:03.320 --> 39:06.580] Why repeat what's already been done, been there, done that?
[39:06.580 --> 39:09.360] Why do we need to go that, to go back there?
[39:09.360 --> 39:15.160] And I mean, one good reason, one of the big overarching reason is Mars practice.
[39:15.160 --> 39:18.320] We need to practice going to Mars.
[39:18.320 --> 39:20.540] And it's a test bed in a lot of ways.
[39:20.540 --> 39:23.420] So there's lots of examples that's part of that.
[39:23.420 --> 39:24.640] One is radiation.
[39:24.640 --> 39:27.920] We've talked about radiation many times on the show.
[39:27.920 --> 39:33.080] The radiation, the cosmic rays, solar particles that are in space for long distance travel
[39:33.080 --> 39:34.420] are horrific.
[39:34.420 --> 39:39.760] You could go there and be like, well, I got my dose of radiation for my entire life now
[39:39.760 --> 39:42.560] and cancer, all this stuff.
[39:42.560 --> 39:43.600] It's horrible.
[39:43.600 --> 39:47.560] And we've talked to NASA people and their attitude is, yeah, we don't have any good
[39:47.560 --> 39:48.840] solutions right now.
[39:48.840 --> 39:52.680] The big plan now is to get there fast and then treat it medically and treat the problems
[39:52.680 --> 39:55.400] as they arise medically and like, that was it.
[39:55.400 --> 39:56.400] That was it.
[39:56.400 --> 40:00.620] So this is a hard nut to crack dealing with the radiation.
[40:00.620 --> 40:03.760] It's a huge problem and there's no way we can go to Mars right now.
[40:03.760 --> 40:07.640] It's really no way for lots of reasons, but radiation is a huge one.
[40:07.640 --> 40:11.660] So now Artemis is planning from its very first mission, they're going to do experiments and
[40:11.660 --> 40:14.880] studies on what radiation does to living organisms.
[40:14.880 --> 40:17.240] And they're going to be testing various things like, how about this one?
[40:17.240 --> 40:20.380] First, I'd never heard about this, an anti-radiation vest.
[40:20.380 --> 40:21.920] They're looking at an anti-radiation vest.
[40:21.920 --> 40:22.920] Wow.
[40:22.920 --> 40:24.720] I want to learn a little bit more about that because that sounds-
[40:24.720 --> 40:25.720] Just a vest?
[40:25.720 --> 40:26.720] Yeah.
[40:26.720 --> 40:27.720] Well, I mean, you know, whatever.
[40:27.720 --> 40:28.720] I don't know anything much beyond it.
[40:28.720 --> 40:29.720] It's starting.
[40:29.720 --> 40:32.200] Make a whole suit out of it, I suppose, at some point.
[40:32.200 --> 40:33.200] You start with a vest.
[40:33.200 --> 40:34.200] Is that the point?
[40:34.200 --> 40:35.200] I don't know.
[40:35.200 --> 40:36.200] I mean, I guess that's-
[40:36.200 --> 40:42.520] Well, the thing is there's different tolerances for your limbs and your organs and your thyroid,
[40:42.520 --> 40:45.080] which is the most vulnerable.
[40:45.080 --> 40:51.600] So like when X-ray techs don't wear a suit, they just wear a vest and they wear a-
[40:51.600 --> 40:52.600] I see.
[40:52.600 --> 40:53.600] You know, a collar.
[40:53.600 --> 40:54.600] What do you call that?
[40:54.600 --> 40:55.600] The thing that goes around your neck.
[40:55.600 --> 40:56.600] A goiter collar.
[40:56.600 --> 40:57.600] Not a goiter.
[40:57.600 --> 40:58.600] It's not an egg.
[40:58.600 --> 40:59.600] A ascot.
[40:59.600 --> 41:00.600] There's a name for that.
[41:00.600 --> 41:01.600] I think the things that go around to protect your neck.
[41:01.600 --> 41:02.600] So it makes sense, right?
[41:02.600 --> 41:03.600] Yeah, sure.
[41:03.600 --> 41:07.640] Your arms and legs just don't have the vulnerable stuff that your internal organs have.
[41:07.640 --> 41:12.760] My friend is an IR physician and she wears the vest thing and then she wears these like
[41:12.760 --> 41:19.220] bananas glasses, like these really intense goggles when she's doing her work so that
[41:19.220 --> 41:20.800] she doesn't get radiation in her eyeballs.
[41:20.800 --> 41:21.800] Yeah.
[41:21.800 --> 41:22.800] Yeah, yeah.
[41:22.800 --> 41:26.000] And also whenever we talk about radiation in space, Bob, I know you know this, but we
[41:26.000 --> 41:33.040] have to separate out, well, even just like solar radiation from intergalactic cosmic
[41:33.040 --> 41:34.040] rays.
[41:34.040 --> 41:37.880] Like everything we're talking about, like a vest or shielding or whatever is only about
[41:37.880 --> 41:38.880] solar radiation.
[41:38.880 --> 41:41.160] There is no shielding for cosmic rays.
[41:41.160 --> 41:43.360] I'm bombarded by cosmic rays right now.
[41:43.360 --> 41:45.360] Well, the atmosphere protects us.
[41:45.360 --> 41:46.360] Oh, yes.
[41:46.360 --> 41:48.320] That's what protects us and really, really well.
[41:48.320 --> 41:54.160] Without an ocean of atmosphere above you or feet of rock or something like that, any shielding
[41:54.160 --> 41:57.600] that we can devise would actually make the problem worse.
[41:57.600 --> 41:59.800] It just traps it inside so it bounces around.
[41:59.800 --> 42:01.080] It does even more damage.
[42:01.080 --> 42:03.240] You're better off just letting it go straight through.
[42:03.240 --> 42:04.240] Right.
[42:04.240 --> 42:05.760] So radiation, huge problem.
[42:05.760 --> 42:09.360] And so we can learn a lot about how to deal with radiation by going to the moon first
[42:09.360 --> 42:10.360] also.
[42:10.360 --> 42:15.040] So learning to live off the land is another huge thing that we need to learn on the moon
[42:15.040 --> 42:17.080] before we can get to Mars.
[42:17.080 --> 42:20.360] We have astronauts in space right now on the ISS.
[42:20.360 --> 42:21.760] We've been to the moon.
[42:21.760 --> 42:26.400] The moon is a thousand times farther than the International Space Station.
[42:26.400 --> 42:29.480] If you have a problem on the space station, no problem.
[42:29.480 --> 42:32.740] You can get a rocket there relatively quickly.
[42:32.740 --> 42:36.500] And even on the moon, if there's a major problem, you're a few days away.
[42:36.500 --> 42:37.960] But Mars is a completely different beast.
[42:37.960 --> 42:42.640] You're months away, probably maybe even more than that for worst case scenarios, far worse.
[42:42.640 --> 42:47.440] So you need to be able to be self-sufficient on Mars and you can test that on the moon.
[42:47.440 --> 42:50.640] For example, like there's plenty of ice on the moon.
[42:50.640 --> 42:56.280] We can learn to use, we could have drinking water, hydrogen, oxygen, rocket fuel, amazing.
[42:56.280 --> 42:57.280] Also regolith.
[42:57.280 --> 42:59.440] There's lots of different things you could do with the regolith of the moon.
[42:59.440 --> 43:03.520] So learning to live off the land on the moon could teach us a lot about living off the
[43:03.520 --> 43:08.040] land on Mars, which would be critical because you're just so amazingly isolated, never,
[43:08.040 --> 43:12.120] you know, isolation never experienced by any humans ever before.
[43:12.120 --> 43:13.800] There's also new technology testing.
[43:13.800 --> 43:15.600] There's lots of new technologies that are coming out.
[43:15.600 --> 43:18.240] The new spacesuits that are coming out are pretty amazing.
[43:18.240 --> 43:22.960] If you look at the Apollo spacesuits, they were designed to last just a few missions.
[43:22.960 --> 43:23.960] That's it.
[43:23.960 --> 43:26.280] A few moon walks and that was it.
[43:26.280 --> 43:27.980] They were like falling apart.
[43:27.980 --> 43:29.400] They were in bad shape.
[43:29.400 --> 43:34.600] Now Artemis and Mars is going to have missions that are going to last a lot more than a few
[43:34.600 --> 43:35.600] days or a week.
[43:35.600 --> 43:38.800] It's going to be weeks, months, or even potentially years.
[43:38.800 --> 43:41.160] So it's a completely different beast.
[43:41.160 --> 43:43.160] So we got to test these new spacesuits.
[43:43.160 --> 43:46.720] There's also vehicles that they're, that they're developing that you're going to need on, on
[43:46.720 --> 43:47.720] Mars.
[43:47.720 --> 43:51.460] So you can test them on the moon, on the moon, pressurized, unpressurized.
[43:51.460 --> 43:55.520] And then there's, there's energy sources, portable nuclear fission systems.
[43:55.520 --> 43:58.520] I've talked about Kilopower on the show before.
[43:58.520 --> 44:01.040] That project is developing a fission system.
[44:01.040 --> 44:04.400] That's 10 kilowatts that could last many, many years.
[44:04.400 --> 44:08.880] Incredibly beneficial to have a source, a source like that on Mars that could last you
[44:08.880 --> 44:10.680] for years and you don't have to worry about anything.
[44:10.680 --> 44:14.120] You don't need solar or any other type of fuel.
[44:14.120 --> 44:15.120] That's going to be critical.
[44:15.120 --> 44:16.560] All going to be tested on the moon.
[44:16.560 --> 44:18.400] There's also China competition.
[44:18.400 --> 44:20.760] China, you know, has to go into this.
[44:20.760 --> 44:24.800] NASA feels that we need to settle the moon in some way before the Chinese.
[44:24.800 --> 44:29.680] They're planning on settling or having Taikonauts on by the year 2030.
[44:29.680 --> 44:34.240] And the NASA boss, Bill Nelson said this in a recent interview, he said, we don't want
[44:34.240 --> 44:38.040] China suddenly getting there and saying, this is our exclusive territory.
[44:38.040 --> 44:40.320] I mean, you know, who knows what's going to happen.
[44:40.320 --> 44:44.400] That wouldn't shock me if they did that, but they want, they feel that they need a presence
[44:44.400 --> 44:49.800] there before they could be any, any reasonable kind of claim that another country could have.
[44:49.800 --> 44:55.160] Plus this whole space between the moon and the earth, the cislunar space is going to
[44:55.160 --> 44:56.160] be a huge competition.
[44:56.160 --> 45:01.880] It's a hugely strategically important space that you're going to see China, mainly China
[45:01.880 --> 45:04.440] and the United States kind of like vying for.
[45:04.440 --> 45:08.680] That's one of the, one of the reasons why we're really seriously developing nuclear
[45:08.680 --> 45:12.720] rockets now, because you need to have mobility in cislunar space.
[45:12.720 --> 45:16.520] And that's, and I love the fact that we're moving away from chemical rockets, but I hate
[45:16.520 --> 45:18.280] the reason why we're doing it.
[45:18.280 --> 45:19.920] But NASA is not stupid.
[45:19.920 --> 45:24.000] They're involved in these nuclear rockets because they feel that once NASA develops
[45:24.000 --> 45:29.160] them or once the government's, the government uses them for cislunar space, they can then
[45:29.160 --> 45:34.240] take that as the foundation, foundational rocket that they could improve and use them
[45:34.240 --> 45:35.240] to go to Mars.
[45:35.240 --> 45:36.240] Great, great, great.
[45:36.240 --> 45:37.240] I love it.
[45:37.240 --> 45:41.360] You, so Chinese astronauts are actually called taikonauts.
[45:41.360 --> 45:42.360] Yeah, yeah.
[45:42.360 --> 45:43.360] That's cool.
[45:43.360 --> 45:44.360] Yeah, yeah.
[45:44.360 --> 45:45.360] I like taikonauts.
[45:45.360 --> 45:46.360] Cosmonauts is cool.
[45:46.360 --> 45:47.360] Taikonauts is cool.
[45:47.360 --> 45:48.360] I guess astronauts is cool too.
[45:48.360 --> 45:49.360] We're just used to it here.
[45:49.360 --> 45:50.360] Right.
[45:50.360 --> 45:51.360] It's like, yeah.
[45:51.360 --> 45:52.360] Yeah.
[45:52.360 --> 45:53.360] I like it.
[45:53.360 --> 45:57.280] And then the other, the other huge reason is just science, just going to the moon for
[45:57.280 --> 45:58.920] just pure science.
[45:58.920 --> 46:01.640] And it's not just Tang science, right?
[46:01.640 --> 46:03.140] It's not just that.
[46:03.140 --> 46:06.720] Astronaut Jessica Mears said, the samples that we collected during the Apollo missions
[46:06.720 --> 46:09.120] changed the way we view our solar system.
[46:09.120 --> 46:12.320] I think we can expect that from the Artemis program as well.
[46:12.320 --> 46:16.540] Obviously, there's going to be tons and tons of new science coming out of these, of these
[46:16.540 --> 46:19.240] missions over the next 20 years.
[46:19.240 --> 46:22.480] The science that's going to flow from the moon back down to earth is going to be, it's
[46:22.480 --> 46:23.480] going to be amazing.
[46:23.480 --> 46:24.480] It's unpredictable.
[46:24.480 --> 46:27.920] Who knows what we're going to find, but we're always surprised with stuff like that.
[46:27.920 --> 46:32.960] And if, if, if history is any, any precedent, I think we're going to be even more amazed
[46:32.960 --> 46:37.120] at what we discover on the moon from just a purely science perspective.
[46:37.120 --> 46:39.600] So there's so many reasons to go to the moon first.
[46:39.600 --> 46:43.440] And I think it's not just going to be a training platform for Mars.
[46:43.440 --> 46:47.020] It's going to be, there's going to be a human settlement there for, and there's lots of
[46:47.020 --> 46:49.440] amazing things that could be done on the moon.
[46:49.440 --> 46:53.240] There's so much we can learn and experience there that we can't on the earth.
[46:53.240 --> 46:54.240] And I think we just need to go there.
[46:54.240 --> 46:57.040] Bob, we've talked before about the moon being the stepping stone to Mars.
[46:57.040 --> 47:00.680] So is that still, is that still, but is that still the case in a physical sense?
[47:00.680 --> 47:03.160] Like we're going to launch the Mars mission from the moon?
[47:03.160 --> 47:04.160] Yeah.
[47:04.160 --> 47:05.160] Yeah, absolutely.
[47:05.160 --> 47:08.440] And that's one thing I wanted to cover also the gateway station that's going to be orbiting
[47:08.440 --> 47:13.760] the moon, that, that, that station is, is, you know, it's going to be integral to the
[47:13.760 --> 47:16.160] Artemis mission and it's going to be, it's a way station.
[47:16.160 --> 47:20.080] They're going to, you know, astronauts are going to ferry from that station to the moon,
[47:20.080 --> 47:25.120] but it's also going to then be used as a way, as a way point for going to Mars.
[47:25.120 --> 47:28.400] The big reason for that is the rocket equation, right?
[47:28.400 --> 47:32.120] You don't want to do one long trip if you can avoid it.
[47:32.120 --> 47:36.320] If you could break a long trip up into multiple smaller trips, that's always much better.
[47:36.320 --> 47:40.280] You know, the rocket equation essentially is that you need the fuel to carry the fuel
[47:40.280 --> 47:41.280] to carry the fuel.
[47:41.280 --> 47:46.920] And so it, the amount of fuel you need for any trip, like if you could calculate, I want
[47:46.920 --> 47:52.160] to go to from point A to point B in this amount of time, right?
[47:52.160 --> 47:54.880] And that includes getting out of a gravity well.
[47:54.880 --> 47:57.780] You can calculate how much fuel you need.
[47:57.780 --> 48:00.800] Time is important because it's like you can go really far if you don't care if you get
[48:00.800 --> 48:03.540] there in 20,000 years, you don't need a lot of fuel.
[48:03.540 --> 48:09.160] But if you want to get to Mars, you know, without overexposing your astronauts to cosmic
[48:09.160 --> 48:12.320] rays, you want to get there as fast as possible.
[48:12.320 --> 48:18.880] So actually most of the energy to get from the Earth to Mars is still just getting out
[48:18.880 --> 48:20.880] of the Earth's gravity well.
[48:20.880 --> 48:25.360] So if you can get to the moon, you've already used a chunk of your, a big chunk of your
[48:25.360 --> 48:29.800] fuel, but you're not carrying the fuel to get the Mars off of Earth, right?
[48:29.800 --> 48:33.200] You're only going to carry it firing from the moon.
[48:33.200 --> 48:34.880] So that's a no brainer.
[48:34.880 --> 48:39.560] We get to the moon, we've already spent most of our energy going anywhere, anywhere in
[48:39.560 --> 48:40.560] the solar system.
[48:40.560 --> 48:44.580] You've already spent most of your energy going from the Earth to the moon.
[48:44.580 --> 48:49.280] And then the moon really becomes our launching pad for everywhere else.
[48:49.280 --> 48:51.480] That's the system that we have to get to.
[48:51.480 --> 48:55.280] Assuming you're not going to be accelerating all the way or halfway to Mars, you know.
[48:55.280 --> 48:57.600] It's still, it's still a chemical rocket.
[48:57.600 --> 49:01.680] Imagine if we're using the moon's regolith to make the rocket fuel.
[49:01.680 --> 49:02.680] The resource itself.
[49:02.680 --> 49:03.680] Or even the ice.
[49:03.680 --> 49:04.680] In situ resources.
[49:04.680 --> 49:05.680] Yeah, the oxygen.
[49:05.680 --> 49:06.680] Yeah.
[49:06.680 --> 49:07.680] Did you say in situ?
[49:07.680 --> 49:08.680] I thought it was in situ.
[49:08.680 --> 49:09.680] It depends if you're carrying it or not.
[49:09.680 --> 49:10.840] There's multiple ways to pronounce it.
[49:10.840 --> 49:13.960] I say in situ, like situation.
[49:13.960 --> 49:19.680] I find that scientists and, or sorry, I find that physicians tend to say situ and scientists
[49:19.680 --> 49:20.680] tend to say situ.
[49:20.680 --> 49:22.960] We're scientists, so I'm wrong either way.
[49:22.960 --> 49:23.960] No, I know.
[49:23.960 --> 49:25.440] I know what you're saying.
[49:25.440 --> 49:26.440] Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[49:26.440 --> 49:27.440] That's right.
[49:27.440 --> 49:28.440] I forgive you.
[49:28.440 --> 49:29.440] You can say situ.
[49:29.440 --> 49:30.440] That sounds a little weird, but you can say it.
[49:30.440 --> 49:31.440] Yeah.
[49:31.440 --> 49:32.440] No judgment.
[49:32.440 --> 49:33.440] Parasaurolophus.
[49:33.440 --> 49:34.440] Yeah, thanks, Kara.
[49:34.440 --> 49:35.760] I can't, you say that word, my brain literally gets about a quarter of the way through it
[49:35.760 --> 49:36.760] and then shuts down.
[49:36.760 --> 49:37.760] Para.
[49:37.760 --> 49:38.760] Don't be so much.
[49:38.760 --> 49:42.000] All right, but Bob, so here's the, here's the devil's advocate question.
[49:42.000 --> 49:43.000] Oh boy.
[49:43.000 --> 49:46.120] Like you say, oh, we need to go to the moon in order to get to Mars, but you're just
[49:46.120 --> 49:48.320] sort of kicking the can down the road.
[49:48.320 --> 49:50.640] Like why go to Mars then?
[49:50.640 --> 49:52.600] The big, we know this, we've talked about this before.
[49:52.600 --> 49:56.180] The big devil's advocate question is why not just have robots do everything?
[49:56.180 --> 49:58.320] Why put people there at all?
[49:58.320 --> 50:01.320] Oh, come on.
[50:01.320 --> 50:04.200] First of all, like humans are explorers.
[50:04.200 --> 50:05.200] Yeah.
[50:05.200 --> 50:11.960] It's part of the way that we operate and there is something romantically profound about traveling
[50:11.960 --> 50:12.960] the universe.
[50:12.960 --> 50:13.960] So romance.
[50:13.960 --> 50:17.440] No, but it's, it is the human condition though, you know, like, yeah, if you want to just
[50:17.440 --> 50:21.320] look at it by the numbers, sure, we send, we send machines.
[50:21.320 --> 50:23.640] Machines can do science there and all that.
[50:23.640 --> 50:28.440] But you know, as romantic as this sounds, what was cooler than putting people on the
[50:28.440 --> 50:29.920] moon that humans have done?
[50:29.920 --> 50:35.560] So I agree with you, but I, I think we need to go deeper because that's not enough to
[50:35.560 --> 50:39.680] sell it, to say why we need to spend an order of magnitude more money to send people to
[50:39.680 --> 50:41.820] do what robots could do much cheaper.
[50:41.820 --> 50:45.680] Let's put that money into building better robots so that they'll be better able to.
[50:45.680 --> 50:48.760] So the question boils down to is what can a person do that a robot can't do?
[50:48.760 --> 50:50.580] Well, that's a, well, that's one question.
[50:50.580 --> 50:51.580] That's not the question.
[50:51.580 --> 50:52.580] That's one question.
[50:52.580 --> 50:58.460] And that's, you know, it remains to be seen because right now, yes, if you had a human
[50:58.460 --> 51:04.920] scientist with instruments on Mars, they could react to what they're discovering, plan a
[51:04.920 --> 51:05.920] followup experiment.
[51:05.920 --> 51:06.920] You know what I mean?
[51:06.920 --> 51:08.560] They could do that all right there.
[51:08.560 --> 51:13.440] You don't have to say, oh, now we need to design another Rover and in 20 years we'll
[51:13.440 --> 51:17.160] be able to do the followup experiment to what we just discovered.
[51:17.160 --> 51:21.960] But of course, you know, the, our, the co-argument is well, well, robots will get better to do
[51:21.960 --> 51:22.960] that.
[51:22.960 --> 51:23.960] But I think, okay, sure.
[51:23.960 --> 51:27.060] But we'll also get better at putting people into space at the same time.
[51:27.060 --> 51:30.960] And as you know, as we mentioned previously, when we're talking about the book, we will
[51:30.960 --> 51:33.440] be robots going into the space, right?
[51:33.440 --> 51:34.440] At some point, yeah.
[51:34.440 --> 51:36.760] We will genetically engineer ourselves and we'll be cyborgs and whatever.
[51:36.760 --> 51:39.980] So it's, should we send people or robots into space?
[51:39.980 --> 51:40.980] The answer is yes.
[51:40.980 --> 51:41.980] Both.
[51:41.980 --> 51:44.460] We'll send both, we'll be both.
[51:44.460 --> 51:51.720] And I think, you know, developing the technology to have biological organisms basically inhabit
[51:51.720 --> 51:57.240] the universe, I think is a reasonable goal because if we don't, we're limited to this
[51:57.240 --> 51:58.840] one planet forever.
[51:58.840 --> 52:02.560] At some point we need to, you know, we're going to break it beyond repair at some point.
[52:02.560 --> 52:03.560] Yeah.
[52:03.560 --> 52:06.680] But even without that concern, I don't think that's, that's not my argument.
[52:06.680 --> 52:08.760] My argument is that we're going to destroy the earth so we've got to go elsewhere.
[52:08.760 --> 52:10.480] I'm hoping that we don't destroy the earth.
[52:10.480 --> 52:11.600] I don't think we're going to.
[52:11.600 --> 52:16.640] I think eventually, we may make it shitty for a while, but I think, you know, as technology
[52:16.640 --> 52:20.560] advances, et cetera, earth's always going to be the home of humanity.
[52:20.560 --> 52:25.760] So even that argument aside, why wouldn't we want to spread out into our own solar system?
[52:25.760 --> 52:27.120] There's so much to do out there.
[52:27.120 --> 52:28.120] There's so many resources.
[52:28.120 --> 52:30.960] There's just so much to learn, so much science to do.
[52:30.960 --> 52:32.600] And why should robots have all the fun?
[52:32.600 --> 52:37.080] I also think that we want the ability to have human civilization spread to other locations,
[52:37.080 --> 52:38.080] you know.
[52:38.080 --> 52:43.600] There's, there's hundreds of billions of suns in our own galaxy, and we have no idea how
[52:43.600 --> 52:44.840] common life is.
[52:44.840 --> 52:46.920] What if we're the only sentient race in the galaxy?
[52:46.920 --> 52:51.280] It's a lot of space out there, you know, that we could expand into.
[52:51.280 --> 52:55.480] We could have a whole planet, Steve, we could have a whole planet where cows could just
[52:55.480 --> 52:56.480] go crazy.
[52:56.480 --> 52:57.480] Yeah.
[52:57.480 --> 52:58.480] Just go for it.
[52:58.480 --> 52:59.480] Cow planet.
[52:59.480 --> 53:00.480] Well, we already, cow planet.
[53:00.480 --> 53:01.480] Ours is a robot planet.
[53:01.480 --> 53:02.480] True.
[53:02.480 --> 53:05.000] You know, when you say that, when you talk about like the fact that humans one day will
[53:05.000 --> 53:11.000] merge with our technology and machines, like I totally agree with you.
Interview with The Everyday Astronaut (53:10)
[53:11.000 --> 53:25.640] Okay, we're joined now by Tim Dodd, the everyday astronaut.
[53:25.640 --> 53:28.440] Tim, let's get right to some questions.
[53:28.440 --> 53:34.200] So what do you think about the Artemis program and the Space Launch System?
[53:34.200 --> 53:35.200] I think, okay.
[53:35.200 --> 53:42.280] So I mean, in general, I'm very happy about Artemis and I think it's an important step
[53:42.280 --> 53:47.040] to finally start exploring beyond the Earth orbit again for the first time in, you know,
[53:47.040 --> 53:48.040] almost 50 years.
[53:48.040 --> 53:49.040] Yeah.
[53:49.040 --> 53:50.040] Which is just crazy to think about.
[53:50.040 --> 53:54.040] Like we, we literally 50 years ago, you know, we were doing stuff that we just haven't done
[53:54.040 --> 53:56.560] since and that just, it feels so backwards to me.
[53:56.560 --> 54:02.500] It feels like, you know, like humans are, have gone backwards in time almost.
[54:02.500 --> 54:06.920] So I personally am a really big fan of anything that, that even if it's a slow march forward,
[54:06.920 --> 54:09.200] at least, you know, goes in that direction.
[54:09.200 --> 54:14.360] And the Artemis program is, is, you know, for better or worse, kind of currently revolving
[54:14.360 --> 54:18.240] around the SLS rocket and the Orion capsule.
[54:18.240 --> 54:23.520] And although those are over budget and slow programs in general, I am still a big fan
[54:23.520 --> 54:29.360] of the fact that, you know, it survived three administration changes now and that's a big
[54:29.360 --> 54:30.360] deal.
[54:30.360 --> 54:34.680] And that they're also working with commercial partners for things like the lunar lander,
[54:34.680 --> 54:39.020] the eclipse missions that, which will be just lunar explorers, you know, a little it.
[54:39.020 --> 54:42.320] So it's heavily rooted in, you know, in these commercial partners.
[54:42.320 --> 54:45.360] And I think it's just set up in a way that will go more and more that way.
[54:45.360 --> 54:49.600] But for now you kind of have that backbone of having the option of humans getting on
[54:49.600 --> 54:54.540] a more traditional rocket and a more traditional, and at least it's like a, we know at least
[54:54.540 --> 54:56.840] this is going to be progressing forward.
[54:56.840 --> 55:00.460] And we know like, even if it's slow, at least like it's, it's moving.
[55:00.460 --> 55:01.460] It is moving, you know?
[55:01.460 --> 55:02.460] Yeah.
[55:02.460 --> 55:06.120] We have to separate the Artemis mission from the SLS launch system.
[55:06.120 --> 55:09.320] The Artemis mission is the mission to go to the moon and do what they want to do on the
[55:09.320 --> 55:10.320] moon.
[55:10.320 --> 55:13.080] The SLS launch system is what they're using to get there.
[55:13.080 --> 55:15.360] But that doesn't mean they always have to use the SLS.
[55:15.360 --> 55:19.700] I mean, we're kind of committed for now because we've already dumped a lot of money into it
[55:19.700 --> 55:20.920] and it's, it's ready.
[55:20.920 --> 55:24.400] It's on the launch pad, you know, had to skirt the hurricane.
[55:24.400 --> 55:27.440] But other than that, they're, they're, they're ready to go.
[55:27.440 --> 55:28.440] But I agree.
[55:28.440 --> 55:31.080] I mean, it does look like, I know like just a few, I mean, you probably heard about this,
[55:31.080 --> 55:32.080] probably even wrote about it.
[55:32.080 --> 55:37.000] Like the NASA is soliciting more submissions for lunar landers.
[55:37.000 --> 55:42.720] You know, I know that they already, did they, they officially contract with SpaceX to use?
[55:42.720 --> 55:43.720] Yes.
[55:43.720 --> 55:44.720] Yes.
[55:44.720 --> 55:48.280] As of last year, I think they were the sole procurement out of three options last year.
[55:48.280 --> 55:49.440] But they're, they're asking for more.
[55:49.440 --> 55:50.440] They want more options.
[55:50.440 --> 55:51.440] They do.
[55:51.440 --> 55:54.240] And they, they originally, most people thought they had down selected two.
[55:54.240 --> 55:58.720] So it was actually a pretty big shock when they only were able to select, SpaceX.
[55:58.720 --> 56:03.200] And most of that was because of the price, you know, SpaceX was by far the cheapest option,
[56:03.200 --> 56:08.960] despite being, almost a hundred times more capable than the next options or 10 times
[56:08.960 --> 56:09.960] more capable than that.
[56:09.960 --> 56:10.960] Why was that?
[56:10.960 --> 56:12.160] How were they able to do it so cheaply?
[56:12.160 --> 56:18.320] Their Starship vehicle is just so absurdly, so much larger, bigger, more, it's just a
[56:18.320 --> 56:19.320] way bigger platform.
[56:19.320 --> 56:23.320] And you know, the, the scale at which not only they're building, but even manufacturing
[56:23.320 --> 56:27.080] things is just kind of on a whole different, it's a whole different ball game.
[56:27.080 --> 56:31.080] I mean, the Raptor engines, they're, I don't even, I can't keep track of how many they
[56:31.080 --> 56:32.080] built already.
[56:32.080 --> 56:33.080] It's, it's over a hundred.
[56:33.080 --> 56:34.080] It might even, I don't even remember.
[56:34.080 --> 56:36.360] It might be like 150 or something.
[56:36.360 --> 56:40.220] And that's an engine that really just started doing stuff about three years ago.
[56:40.220 --> 56:45.000] So in rocket terms, this is like insane pace that, I mean, they're building almost one
[56:45.000 --> 56:46.000] a day at this point.
[56:46.000 --> 56:47.000] Yeah.
[56:47.000 --> 56:49.480] And it's also deliberately designed to be cheap and reusable.
[56:49.480 --> 56:55.200] I mean, at one point Musk said, we could use like a carbon polymer and that would be lighter
[56:55.200 --> 56:57.960] and everything, but you know, steel's really cheap.
[56:57.960 --> 57:02.460] And so they're just building that of, you know, high grade steel of the right kind,
[57:02.460 --> 57:04.720] you know, for what they needed for.
[57:04.720 --> 57:09.600] And steel is still a great material, you know, so, but, but the, but the, the choice was
[57:09.600 --> 57:13.200] because it's the cheapest thing that will get the job done.
[57:13.200 --> 57:14.200] Right.
[57:14.200 --> 57:17.520] So shouldn't, shouldn't every rocket be utilizing that kind of mentality?
[57:17.520 --> 57:19.560] Should we be trying to make everything cheap?
[57:19.560 --> 57:23.080] The difference between a private company and the government is profound.
[57:23.080 --> 57:24.080] Yeah.
[57:24.080 --> 57:25.080] Right.
[57:25.080 --> 57:26.080] It's red tape.
[57:26.080 --> 57:29.560] You know, when you think about like what, what, um, SpaceX has been able to achieve
[57:29.560 --> 57:35.600] just in the idea of reusability, just in that concept alone, the reusability saves, I mean,
[57:35.600 --> 57:38.800] it's going to easily save trillions of dollars down the road.
[57:38.800 --> 57:39.800] It's massive.
[57:39.800 --> 57:44.340] But the messed up thing is like, it's a private company that's just using this public funding.
[57:44.340 --> 57:48.080] So it's like this weird thing where the money coming in is the same.
[57:48.080 --> 57:53.400] There's still tax payer dollars coming in, but then they're able to do everything without
[57:53.400 --> 57:55.600] the kind of government regulation of bureaucracy.
[57:55.600 --> 57:57.920] There's just kind of two things that are, that are a little bit different specifically
[57:57.920 --> 58:02.560] about the, so basically SpaceX would be doing Starship with or without the government at
[58:02.560 --> 58:05.080] all with or without a dollar from NASA.
[58:05.080 --> 58:09.920] Um, as a matter of fact, they're actually beyond matching their contribution to the
[58:09.920 --> 58:14.600] lander is substantially more than NASA's contribution, which is really backwards.
[58:14.600 --> 58:18.360] And it's because SpaceX really believes that this is going to be their commercial platform
[58:18.360 --> 58:21.720] to make, you know, this is their, this is their bread and butter.
[58:21.720 --> 58:22.720] Now this is going to make it.
[58:22.720 --> 58:25.280] So their Falcon nine, which is already the cheapest, most prolific launch vehicle right
[58:25.280 --> 58:30.880] now will look like a child's toy because it will be able to be five to 10 times more capable
[58:30.880 --> 58:31.880] and fully reusable.
[58:31.880 --> 58:35.220] So it could bring the cost down by an order of magnitude or more.
[58:35.220 --> 58:37.640] Is that match overall or is it just for this project?
[58:37.640 --> 58:39.240] Cause I mean like money's fungible.
[58:39.240 --> 58:40.800] They take a lot of money from NASA.
[58:40.800 --> 58:41.800] Do they not?
[58:41.800 --> 58:44.520] Yeah, they've won a lot of contracts from NASA.
[58:44.520 --> 58:50.600] And so overall, like what percentage of their, of their funding is Elon Musk had to finance
[58:50.600 --> 58:53.720] SpaceX for years through failure without.
[58:53.720 --> 58:58.200] So that was the startup costs almost bankrupted him, but he's like, keep going, keep going.
[58:58.200 --> 58:59.640] We'll get there eventually.
[58:59.640 --> 59:02.360] So it'd be interesting to see the accounting overall, overall this time.
[59:02.360 --> 59:08.120] So I can give you a sense of that 4.3 billion was basically the original contribution from
[59:08.120 --> 59:13.640] NASA to win is how they got the Falcon nine developed and the dragon capsule originally
[59:13.640 --> 59:17.000] developed was because, and then they were, they were trying to get out of, they originally
[59:17.000 --> 59:21.200] were flying the Falcon one when they finally did launch it on their fourth attempt and made
[59:21.200 --> 59:22.200] it to orbit.
[59:22.200 --> 59:25.480] That was like every penny was in already like a hundred percent.
[59:25.480 --> 59:29.720] Every single, you know, per private dollar and investors' dollars were 100% in on that
[59:29.720 --> 59:30.720] rocket.
[59:30.720 --> 59:33.880] If that rocket failed, SpaceX would not be a thing anymore because they won that.
[59:33.880 --> 59:38.360] They ended up winning another other contracts and they, then they were able to, the first
[59:38.360 --> 59:42.920] commercial it was at the time of the COT, COTS program, commercial orbital transportation
[59:42.920 --> 59:46.740] services, which turned into the CRS commercial resupply missions.
[59:46.740 --> 59:51.840] And so they were one of, at first three, one of the companies failed, north of Grumman
[59:51.840 --> 59:55.840] is still the other company that's procuring and, and resupplying the international space
[59:55.840 --> 59:57.220] station currently.
[59:57.220 --> 01:00:02.240] And then again, that, that went into another round, which is the commercial crew program,
[01:00:02.240 --> 01:00:06.520] which is what we're in now with the crew Dragon capsule and Boeing Starliner is the other
[01:00:06.520 --> 01:00:10.600] option that still has not yet to date flown people.
[01:00:10.600 --> 01:00:15.800] And the big thing there is, you know, Boeing won almost two times as much money as SpaceX,
[01:00:15.800 --> 01:00:19.000] most of it for timeline assurance purposes.
[01:00:19.000 --> 01:00:23.160] And despite that, they still haven't flown anyone to date and SpaceX has sent, they're
[01:00:23.160 --> 01:00:25.800] about to send their fifth crew to the international space station already.
[01:00:25.800 --> 01:00:26.800] Wow.
[01:00:26.800 --> 01:00:30.000] So, so if you were to put like a, I mean, you probably can't do this quick and dirty
[01:00:30.000 --> 01:00:33.720] on the back of a napkin, but if you were to put like a percentage of like how much of
[01:00:33.720 --> 01:00:40.780] SpaceX overall, their, their revenue has been self-funded by Elon himself, has been other
[01:00:40.780 --> 01:00:45.640] contracts like purely commercially gained and then coming in from NASA, would you say
[01:00:45.640 --> 01:00:47.560] it's like a third, a third, a third?
[01:00:47.560 --> 01:00:49.040] So we can count.
[01:00:49.040 --> 01:00:53.160] So they, they do three to four, about four resupply missions each year with NASA.
[01:00:53.160 --> 01:00:57.220] And they do, they're basically doing every six months with direct crew Dragon.
[01:00:57.220 --> 01:01:01.080] So there's six missions a year and then every now and then they win things like Lucy and
[01:01:01.080 --> 01:01:02.080] a few other things.
[01:01:02.080 --> 01:01:06.320] So probably eight or nine launches are NASA launches most, most of the time.
[01:01:06.320 --> 01:01:08.560] And those are, you know, those are at cost plus contracting.
[01:01:08.560 --> 01:01:13.120] No, those are, I mean, a fixed price contracting, so a bid.
[01:01:13.120 --> 01:01:16.880] And then these days though, SpaceX is going to be launching probably pretty close to 60
[01:01:16.880 --> 01:01:17.880] launches this year.
[01:01:17.880 --> 01:01:20.780] Holy, is that from Starlink?
[01:01:20.780 --> 01:01:21.780] Most of it's Starlink.
[01:01:21.780 --> 01:01:22.780] Okay.
[01:01:22.780 --> 01:01:25.760] And so that's, is that making them bank right now or are they still self-funding that and
[01:01:25.760 --> 01:01:30.240] hoping to see funding it and seeing it as like, well now it's going to be this kind
[01:01:30.240 --> 01:01:33.880] of backbone for so much of, of the internet.
[01:01:33.880 --> 01:01:38.440] I mean, you know, already we're seeing T-Mobile wanting to use Starlink to be able to use
[01:01:38.440 --> 01:01:42.600] a little bit of their little slice of bandwidth to be able to basically make it so any T-Mobile
[01:01:42.600 --> 01:01:45.000] customer can potentially use their phone anywhere.
[01:01:45.000 --> 01:01:48.600] I have a lot of friends who are living in like rural parts of Europe who are already
[01:01:48.600 --> 01:01:53.160] Starlink subscribers because it's just, it's so much better than anything they had previously.
[01:01:53.160 --> 01:01:54.160] Yeah.
[01:01:54.160 --> 01:01:55.160] Yeah.
[01:01:55.160 --> 01:01:56.160] So this is just the beginning.
[01:01:56.160 --> 01:02:01.000] You know, this is like the Starlink literally 1.0 or 1.5 and these Starlink 2.0 satellites
[01:02:01.000 --> 01:02:04.600] that are meant to launch on Starship, which is the big reason why they're pushing for
[01:02:04.600 --> 01:02:09.480] Starship, is to get these much bigger, much more capable satellites and that will be what's
[01:02:09.480 --> 01:02:13.520] completely changes the game on all of this.
[01:02:13.520 --> 01:02:14.520] Yeah.
[01:02:14.520 --> 01:02:15.520] Fascinating.
[01:02:15.520 --> 01:02:19.040] So they really want, they really want the Starship to be their heavy lift rocket.
[01:02:19.040 --> 01:02:20.040] Yeah.
[01:02:20.040 --> 01:02:21.040] And it's going to take over.
[01:02:21.040 --> 01:02:23.640] I mean, as soon as that thing's flying regularly, of course there'll be some, you know, some
[01:02:23.640 --> 01:02:29.400] missions are just too vital to put on anything other like, you know, if a Department of Defense
[01:02:29.400 --> 01:02:30.400] mission.
[01:02:30.400 --> 01:02:31.400] Exactly.
[01:02:31.400 --> 01:02:32.400] Exactly.
[01:02:32.400 --> 01:02:35.520] If there's a military satellite or something that's already been designed and built and
[01:02:35.520 --> 01:02:40.800] is and paid for Falcon Heavy launch, it's going to be on a Falcon Heavy launch or Falcon
[01:02:40.800 --> 01:02:41.800] Nine launch.
[01:02:41.800 --> 01:02:43.160] There's going to be a handful of those.
[01:02:43.160 --> 01:02:46.520] So you'll see it taper off though because obviously the price, price wins out at some
[01:02:46.520 --> 01:02:47.520] point.
[01:02:47.520 --> 01:02:48.520] Yeah.
[01:02:48.520 --> 01:02:52.240] You know, new customers will very quickly be signing up for Starship and they actually
[01:02:52.240 --> 01:02:53.240] already have.
[01:02:53.240 --> 01:02:54.560] They already have customers.
[01:02:54.560 --> 01:02:56.960] That's how far along they think they are.
[01:02:56.960 --> 01:03:01.800] SpaceX and their customers believe, you know, we're within like earshot of Starship actually
[01:03:01.800 --> 01:03:03.360] being an operational rocket.
[01:03:03.360 --> 01:03:06.160] To me, it feels like we'll probably see some big booms here.
[01:03:06.160 --> 01:03:09.200] We'll see some, some big failures as they test the, you know, just the way they test
[01:03:09.200 --> 01:03:12.520] things is like, it's good enough to see if we can get data out of it and see if, you
[01:03:12.520 --> 01:03:14.940] know, does it survive this initial phase?
[01:03:14.940 --> 01:03:16.040] Can it survive re-entry?
[01:03:16.040 --> 01:03:19.280] And it will be a little while before I think we see it be operational and be something
[01:03:19.280 --> 01:03:23.320] that, you know, is flying important payloads other than their own just Starlink stuff.
[01:03:23.320 --> 01:03:26.080] Cause they don't care if they blow up their own Starlinks, it's not a big deal.
[01:03:26.080 --> 01:03:29.520] But I think it's going to be, you know, probably two years before we see two to three years
[01:03:29.520 --> 01:03:34.240] before we see Starship really like becoming a routine thing like Falcon 9 is now.
[01:03:34.240 --> 01:03:35.240] That'll be fantastic.
[01:03:35.240 --> 01:03:38.720] I mean, it's just good to have multiple companies that have the infrastructure, you know, cause
[01:03:38.720 --> 01:03:42.240] there'll be competition, which will help the price go down.
[01:03:42.240 --> 01:03:46.200] And then the more companies that are building it, you know, they're building spacecraft,
[01:03:46.200 --> 01:03:50.360] the whole spacecraft industry will become less expensive, just, it'll be more ubiquitous
[01:03:50.360 --> 01:03:53.000] and it'll be a part of everyday life.
[01:03:53.000 --> 01:03:55.560] You know, 60 launches is so many launches.
[01:03:55.560 --> 01:04:00.100] When you think about like 20 years ago, if we talked about a company launching 60 launches
[01:04:00.100 --> 01:04:05.440] in one year, that number just seems way too high, you know, but it isn't, it's happening
[01:04:05.440 --> 01:04:07.980] and we're lucky that it's there.
[01:04:07.980 --> 01:04:10.920] And next year they're going for a hundred and I absolutely believe it.
[01:04:10.920 --> 01:04:14.800] I think, you know, two years ago, if you said, you know, if Elon goes, we're going to do
[01:04:14.800 --> 01:04:19.080] a hundred launches, I'd be like, yeah, this is like the most hilariously optimistic Elon
[01:04:19.080 --> 01:04:20.320] thing he could have ever said.
[01:04:20.320 --> 01:04:23.240] But now I told, when they say they're going to do a hundred launches, seeing their pace
[01:04:23.240 --> 01:04:25.800] now, it's like, yeah, they can absolutely probably do a hundred next year.
[01:04:25.800 --> 01:04:30.120] That was a good Elon impression.
[01:04:30.120 --> 01:04:32.040] And the SLS is one per year.
[01:04:32.040 --> 01:04:36.080] One per year at best and between Artemis one and Artemis two, which would be the first
[01:04:36.080 --> 01:04:39.800] time they put crew on board, it'll be two years.
[01:04:39.800 --> 01:04:40.800] There's a two year gap.
[01:04:40.800 --> 01:04:41.800] Yeah.
[01:04:41.800 --> 01:04:46.280] And some of that is because the vehicle, I think at this point, the SLS will be ready.
[01:04:46.280 --> 01:04:51.480] The next SLS will be ready, but they're actually reusing some of the avionics from the Orion
[01:04:51.480 --> 01:04:52.480] capsule.
[01:04:52.480 --> 01:04:53.480] Yeah.
[01:04:53.480 --> 01:04:56.160] So it's not like they're relying on it because I guess they do have another set of avionics
[01:04:56.160 --> 01:05:00.400] that they had to take it off from Artemis three and bring it on board or whatever.
[01:05:00.400 --> 01:05:04.600] But that is actually one of the turnaround things is it takes 20 months between splashdown
[01:05:04.600 --> 01:05:10.020] and having the Artemis two Orion capsule be ready with that set of avionics.
[01:05:10.020 --> 01:05:14.480] It's mind blowing when you compare that, what SpaceX is doing.
[01:05:14.480 --> 01:05:20.160] It's like SpaceX is an order of magnitude, more fleet of foot and capable.
[01:05:20.160 --> 01:05:25.080] And I just feel like even though we've dumped a ton of money into it, they are going to
[01:05:25.080 --> 01:05:30.520] be shifting over to SpaceX and whatever other company is going to be out there because NASA
[01:05:30.520 --> 01:05:32.760] just doesn't have the infrastructure, I guess.
[01:05:32.760 --> 01:05:36.760] They just don't have the bandwidth to do what SpaceX is doing.
[01:05:36.760 --> 01:05:39.480] Well, NASA shouldn't.
[01:05:39.480 --> 01:05:43.600] NASA should not be developing and operating a rocket, just like the FAA does not operate
[01:05:43.600 --> 01:05:44.600] aircraft.
[01:05:44.600 --> 01:05:48.120] No, the FAA is not out there with our own.
[01:05:48.120 --> 01:05:53.680] Imagine if they ran FedEx and had to run American Airlines and Delta, it would be terrible if
[01:05:53.680 --> 01:05:59.400] they developed their own airplanes and had to operate them and it'd be terrible.
[01:05:59.400 --> 01:06:03.160] And that's what basically what NASA had had to do in the past just because there weren't
[01:06:03.160 --> 01:06:04.160] commercial options.
[01:06:04.160 --> 01:06:06.440] It was too big of an investment upfront.
[01:06:06.440 --> 01:06:11.040] We're talking about billions and billions of dollars to get, especially we see small
[01:06:11.040 --> 01:06:17.320] set launchers like Rocket Lab, Firefly, Astra, all these new small set launchers, but they're
[01:06:17.320 --> 01:06:23.120] maybe in the hundreds of millions of initial investment to get a small orbital rocket,
[01:06:23.120 --> 01:06:27.140] but to get an orbital rocket capable of carrying people, to certify it for human space flight,
[01:06:27.140 --> 01:06:28.140] all of these things.
[01:06:28.140 --> 01:06:32.840] I mean, we're talking in the billions and we just didn't have, there wasn't the funding
[01:06:32.840 --> 01:06:34.700] for that 10, 20 years ago.
[01:06:34.700 --> 01:06:39.720] So it was an evil, a necessary evil really for NASA to be doing the ones building and
[01:06:39.720 --> 01:06:43.940] designing and operating rockets, but it's just not, they shouldn't be doing that anymore.
[01:06:43.940 --> 01:06:47.880] Much rather my taxpayer dollars get spent towards science missions and exploration and
[01:06:47.880 --> 01:06:50.360] earth sciences and things like that.
[01:06:50.360 --> 01:06:54.280] And I think they're better off being a customer to a commercial rocket.
[01:06:54.280 --> 01:06:55.280] Yeah, for sure.
[01:06:55.280 --> 01:06:56.280] Yeah, yeah.
[01:06:56.280 --> 01:06:58.040] Now the Starship could go to the moon, right?
[01:06:58.040 --> 01:07:02.600] I mean, if it's big enough that it could launch off the earth and go to the moon.
[01:07:02.600 --> 01:07:03.600] After refueling in orbit.
[01:07:03.600 --> 01:07:07.160] It has to refuel in orbit and is that going to be possible?
[01:07:07.160 --> 01:07:08.160] When is that going to be possible?
[01:07:08.160 --> 01:07:09.160] I guess I should say.
[01:07:09.160 --> 01:07:11.840] That's like one of the very first things they're going to have to figure out because obviously
[01:07:11.840 --> 01:07:14.800] with the Artemis program, they're relying on this vehicle being able to land on the
[01:07:14.800 --> 01:07:15.800] moon.
[01:07:15.800 --> 01:07:20.480] So you have right there, you have one of their big contracts for the thing is relying on
[01:07:20.480 --> 01:07:24.080] this orbital refueling and orbital refueling has not been done with cryogenics at this
[01:07:24.080 --> 01:07:25.080] scale at all.
[01:07:25.080 --> 01:07:28.120] I don't know if it's actually ever, if there's been cryogenic transfer really between two
[01:07:28.120 --> 01:07:29.680] vehicles ever.
[01:07:29.680 --> 01:07:33.080] So that's one of the things they have to test out and initially it's going to be just literally
[01:07:33.080 --> 01:07:36.520] transferring it between two different tanks, between the header tank and the main tank.
[01:07:36.520 --> 01:07:38.360] Then they actually want to contract for that as well.
[01:07:38.360 --> 01:07:42.120] So yeah, so it does require, it has such a heavy dry mass, it's carrying around those
[01:07:42.120 --> 01:07:44.880] flaps and the heat shield, all that stuff.
[01:07:44.880 --> 01:07:48.680] Taking that out to the moon is not the most efficient way to get to the moon, but you
[01:07:48.680 --> 01:07:50.840] can brute force it by refueling.
[01:07:50.840 --> 01:07:57.000] And using the Starship as a lander, they're just going to get a couple of the Starships
[01:07:57.000 --> 01:08:00.920] to lunar orbit and keep them there to go up and down from the moon?
[01:08:00.920 --> 01:08:02.400] Is that the idea?
[01:08:02.400 --> 01:08:06.160] It's still actually quite confusing, honestly, even for me.
[01:08:06.160 --> 01:08:10.840] So they're making a bespoke version of Starship that does not have landing or does not have
[01:08:10.840 --> 01:08:15.040] the big flaps and a heat shield because you'll never need it if you're just between the Earth-Moon
[01:08:15.040 --> 01:08:17.000] system and never coming back.
[01:08:17.000 --> 01:08:23.400] But I'm still not entirely sure how it gets from on the moon back into lunar orbit and
[01:08:23.400 --> 01:08:25.960] when's it exactly hook up with the Orion capsule?
[01:08:25.960 --> 01:08:27.240] How is it refueled?
[01:08:27.240 --> 01:08:28.240] Where is it refueled?
[01:08:28.240 --> 01:08:31.960] I mean, these are the things that we hope to learn in the near future.
[01:08:31.960 --> 01:08:33.680] And I haven't been able to wrap my head around it either.
[01:08:33.680 --> 01:08:36.440] I have so many questions that I can't find the answers to anywhere.
[01:08:36.440 --> 01:08:41.360] Well, what does that tell you that the answers don't seem to be out there, that they're probably
[01:08:41.360 --> 01:08:45.160] almost as clueless as we are about how it's going to be solved?
[01:08:45.160 --> 01:08:46.160] That's scary.
[01:08:46.160 --> 01:08:51.160] I think there's, well, there's definitely a lot of, especially the way SpaceX does things,
[01:08:51.160 --> 01:08:52.960] they don't typically go too far into that.
[01:08:52.960 --> 01:08:55.820] I mean, obviously they have big aspirations, like let's land on Mars, that's ridiculous
[01:08:55.820 --> 01:08:56.820] for now.
[01:08:56.820 --> 01:09:00.880] But they're really looking at what can we do absolute next step.
[01:09:00.880 --> 01:09:05.120] Right now it's like, let's try to get our full stack off the ground and might blow up
[01:09:05.120 --> 01:09:10.580] soon after it leaves the ground, but we want to get all 33 Raptor engines firing and fly.
[01:09:10.580 --> 01:09:13.240] And so for them, I think that's literally like most of the companies just focusing on
[01:09:13.240 --> 01:09:15.840] that one thing, especially around the Starship program.
[01:09:15.840 --> 01:09:20.520] And then from there, you don't want to get ahead of yourself, like the waterfall method
[01:09:20.520 --> 01:09:24.120] of computer programming, where you don't want to get like 10 steps ahead because what if
[01:09:24.120 --> 01:09:28.680] step three changes and you have a big change and all that work you did on step 10 is now
[01:09:28.680 --> 01:09:30.960] negated.
[01:09:30.960 --> 01:09:37.440] I was wondering, you know, thinking about that, a ship that big, to me, you know, craft
[01:09:37.440 --> 01:09:41.320] landing on the moon, they're small and they're very dodgy, you know, like, but they want
[01:09:41.320 --> 01:09:44.600] to land a big spaceship on the moon.
[01:09:44.600 --> 01:09:49.600] Tim, do you know, are they going to actually have to build like a stable launch pad for
[01:09:49.600 --> 01:09:51.440] this thing to land on?
[01:09:51.440 --> 01:09:54.480] That's not currently in the plans as far as I know.
[01:09:54.480 --> 01:09:57.960] The only people that I know was working on some, I think, was it actually Masten?
[01:09:57.960 --> 01:10:02.380] Maybe my Discord will remind me, but someone was actually working on a system that would,
[01:10:02.380 --> 01:10:07.040] you basically inject into the exhaust plume of your rocket engine, you would inject like
[01:10:07.040 --> 01:10:11.040] a concrete basically.
[01:10:11.040 --> 01:10:15.360] As it like is landing, it's literally creating its own landing pad.
[01:10:15.360 --> 01:10:17.640] That is freaking science fiction awesome.
[01:10:17.640 --> 01:10:20.080] And if they could do that, could you imagine?
[01:10:20.080 --> 01:10:21.360] That was the theory.
[01:10:21.360 --> 01:10:25.640] And unfortunately Masten just went under and Masten had some of the coolest engineers and
[01:10:25.640 --> 01:10:29.400] some of the coolest ideas in my opinion, so I'm really sad that someone else will grab
[01:10:29.400 --> 01:10:32.880] those people and hopefully bring them into their fold.
[01:10:32.880 --> 01:10:36.760] I did read something where they were talking about having to create some type of landing
[01:10:36.760 --> 01:10:41.120] gear for the moon that was specific, like SpaceX was saying that.
[01:10:41.120 --> 01:10:44.280] But then it hit me like, yeah, but what are we talking about?
[01:10:44.280 --> 01:10:45.800] Because that's a big ship.
[01:10:45.800 --> 01:10:46.880] It's very different.
[01:10:46.880 --> 01:10:50.240] It's a very different landing feet, you know, like on the moon.
[01:10:50.240 --> 01:10:53.280] The other thing, too, is like, you know, historically we didn't land where we said we were going
[01:10:53.280 --> 01:10:55.480] to land on the moon.
[01:10:55.480 --> 01:11:05.440] So there's a few things there that a lot of the landing stuff, that's why the clips missions,
[01:11:05.440 --> 01:11:10.400] the commercial Leo something, something partner systems or whatever, their job is to literally
[01:11:10.400 --> 01:11:14.440] like scout out the landing spots first and they're going to be sent off to, I think there's
[01:11:14.440 --> 01:11:15.440] a lot of them.
[01:11:15.440 --> 01:11:19.400] I think, I don't remember how many, like almost half a dozen or something like that at least
[01:11:19.400 --> 01:11:23.220] that are all different lunar landers that will be checking out different landing spots
[01:11:23.220 --> 01:11:25.560] all in the South pole of the moon.
[01:11:25.560 --> 01:11:29.740] So hopefully that gives, you know, scientists a lot better sense of actually where they're
[01:11:29.740 --> 01:11:32.400] landing if it's safe to land, et cetera, et cetera.
[01:11:32.400 --> 01:11:35.760] And you know, map out some of the topography a little bit more accurately.
[01:11:35.760 --> 01:11:36.760] But with Starship.
[01:11:36.760 --> 01:11:42.560] So the thing is right now, the normal Starship is kind of like a whole fleet of potential
[01:11:42.560 --> 01:11:43.560] rockets.
[01:11:43.560 --> 01:11:47.000] You know, you have the normal Starship that's going to be deploying satellites or whatever
[01:11:47.000 --> 01:11:48.560] in lower orbit.
[01:11:48.560 --> 01:11:51.880] You'll have a, you know, a resupply version of Starship.
[01:11:51.880 --> 01:11:56.760] You'll have a potentially an expendable version of Starship for like going to Jupiter or something
[01:11:56.760 --> 01:11:58.800] where the upper stage is just expended.
[01:11:58.800 --> 01:12:03.520] But the lunar lander specifically will have huge, will have to have big landing gear with
[01:12:03.520 --> 01:12:04.520] a pretty wide stance.
[01:12:04.520 --> 01:12:08.080] Cause this thing is, you know, 150, wait, 50 meters tall, sorry.
[01:12:08.080 --> 01:12:10.500] So 165 feet tall.
[01:12:10.500 --> 01:12:15.340] So it's so, you know, that's, that's high center of mass with, you know, the crew cabin
[01:12:15.340 --> 01:12:16.340] up top.
[01:12:16.340 --> 01:12:19.480] So it's, you definitely have to have a way to have a wide stance and be able to level
[01:12:19.480 --> 01:12:20.720] it out.
[01:12:20.720 --> 01:12:24.440] The other consideration for a long time, they're talking about having thrusters, the landing
[01:12:24.440 --> 01:12:30.200] engines actually on the top of the rocket so that it diffuses the, the exhaust and doesn't
[01:12:30.200 --> 01:12:32.160] create like a giant crater with the engines.
[01:12:32.160 --> 01:12:33.160] Exactly.
[01:12:33.160 --> 01:12:34.160] Yeah.
[01:12:34.160 --> 01:12:36.880] Cause that, those engines would, it would blast the hell out of the surface.
[01:12:36.880 --> 01:12:42.000] And how do they get down from the crew cabin at the top to 165 feet down to the moon?
[01:12:42.000 --> 01:12:43.000] They just jump out.
[01:12:43.000 --> 01:12:46.000] And in a few minutes they land.
[01:12:46.000 --> 01:12:47.000] Let's see.
[01:12:47.000 --> 01:12:48.000] One sixth gravity.
[01:12:48.000 --> 01:12:49.800] It'd be like falling from like 10 meters.
[01:12:49.800 --> 01:12:50.800] Yeah.
[01:12:50.800 --> 01:12:55.000] You know, it's a, there's actually a huge elevator, like literally the concepts that
[01:12:55.000 --> 01:12:59.800] we've seen is like the side of it opens up and there's a giant just cargo elevator.
[01:12:59.800 --> 01:13:00.800] That's cool.
[01:13:00.800 --> 01:13:01.800] Yeah.
[01:13:01.800 --> 01:13:02.800] That's cool.
[01:13:02.800 --> 01:13:03.800] Oh my God.
[01:13:03.800 --> 01:13:07.240] I hope that they send a ship with a camera so we could watch that whole thing happen.
[01:13:07.240 --> 01:13:09.760] You clip yourself to a conveyor belt, it will carry you down.
[01:13:09.760 --> 01:13:10.760] I would imagine.
[01:13:10.760 --> 01:13:12.080] That is 1950 science fiction.
[01:13:12.080 --> 01:13:13.080] That is so awesome.
[01:13:13.080 --> 01:13:14.080] It is.
[01:13:14.080 --> 01:13:15.080] It is.
[01:13:15.080 --> 01:13:17.200] It's like retro future almost because like that, you know, that's what we envisioned
[01:13:17.200 --> 01:13:20.880] was it would have these massive ships that have like cranes and all these, you know,
[01:13:20.880 --> 01:13:24.160] cool things and just deploy stuff on the moon is no big deal.
[01:13:24.160 --> 01:13:28.320] And that's when you have this size and the scale of a vehicle you're talking about.
[01:13:28.320 --> 01:13:30.680] That literally is kind of the stuff that you have to employ.
[01:13:30.680 --> 01:13:31.680] Yeah.
[01:13:31.680 --> 01:13:34.120] And at the end of the game, like at the end of the day, that's relatively primitive.
[01:13:34.120 --> 01:13:35.120] Like an elevator.
[01:13:35.120 --> 01:13:36.120] Yeah.
[01:13:36.120 --> 01:13:37.120] Yeah.
[01:13:37.120 --> 01:13:40.240] You know, that's, that's a pretty primitive thing, but obviously that elevator needs to
[01:13:40.240 --> 01:13:45.400] work, you know, in the lunar environment with, with dust and regular all that stuff.
[01:13:45.400 --> 01:13:48.720] Or is it like all high tech?
[01:13:48.720 --> 01:13:51.040] Like couldn't they just do like a cranky crank crank?
[01:13:51.040 --> 01:13:54.360] Hopefully they have like a backup, like a manual backup, I'm guessing, but I'm not,
[01:13:54.360 --> 01:13:56.520] no details have been talked about at all.
[01:13:56.520 --> 01:14:00.160] Could you imagine they get all the way there and a fricking elevator doesn't work.
[01:14:00.160 --> 01:14:03.920] Well, you just repel, you just repel down the side of the ship.
[01:14:03.920 --> 01:14:04.920] You're good.
[01:14:04.920 --> 01:14:05.920] Well, here's the real question.
[01:14:05.920 --> 01:14:07.920] Will the elevator have muzak while they're descending?
[01:14:07.920 --> 01:14:11.520] It better, it better.
[01:14:11.520 --> 01:14:14.760] Automatically sinks Bluetooth into some, yeah.
[01:14:14.760 --> 01:14:15.760] That's horrible muzak.
[01:14:15.760 --> 01:14:16.760] That'd be awesome.
[01:14:16.760 --> 01:14:19.280] So Tim, we, we invited you on.
[01:14:19.280 --> 01:14:21.640] Another reason was we're, you know, we have a new book coming out.
[01:14:21.640 --> 01:14:22.800] I can't wait.
[01:14:22.800 --> 01:14:26.720] So there are some chapters in here that I think you'll be interested in that we wanted
[01:14:26.720 --> 01:14:28.400] to discuss with you.
[01:14:28.400 --> 01:14:30.400] So Steve, what would be the top one?
[01:14:30.400 --> 01:14:37.240] Well, I mean, you know, we have a whole section on space travel, so anything in there.
[01:14:37.240 --> 01:14:40.760] So here's a question that we address in the book.
[01:14:40.760 --> 01:14:47.200] I don't know how much you get into the future of space travel, like beyond existing technology,
[01:14:47.200 --> 01:14:49.240] but we'd spend a lot of time thinking about that.
[01:14:49.240 --> 01:14:54.400] What's the infrastructure going to look like, not only in 10 or 20 or 50 years, which we,
[01:14:54.400 --> 01:14:57.920] what we've been talking about, but then where do we go from there and where do we go from
[01:14:57.920 --> 01:14:58.920] there?
[01:14:58.920 --> 01:15:02.280] So what, I don't know, have you thought about that much?
[01:15:02.280 --> 01:15:04.520] Like what, what do you, where do you think we're headed?
[01:15:04.520 --> 01:15:08.400] Like when we're zipping around the solar system, what kind of ships are we going to
[01:15:08.400 --> 01:15:09.400] be using?
[01:15:09.400 --> 01:15:10.400] What would you say?
[01:15:10.400 --> 01:15:13.880] Like 10, 10, 50 and a hundred year prediction?
[01:15:13.880 --> 01:15:14.880] Yeah.
[01:15:14.880 --> 01:15:15.880] 10, 50 and a hundred.
[01:15:15.880 --> 01:15:16.880] Perfect.
[01:15:16.880 --> 01:15:17.880] And then a thousand year prediction.
[01:15:17.880 --> 01:15:18.880] Start.
[01:15:18.880 --> 01:15:19.880] And go.
[01:15:19.880 --> 01:15:20.880] Okay.
[01:15:20.880 --> 01:15:21.880] Ten year.
[01:15:21.880 --> 01:15:24.880] I think in the big thing, the big hurdle right now is just getting the cost of getting to
[01:15:24.880 --> 01:15:27.240] space down, period.
[01:15:27.240 --> 01:15:28.600] And that is happening.
[01:15:28.600 --> 01:15:33.560] So I think in 10 years, hopefully the idea of putting something into LEO and to lower
[01:15:33.560 --> 01:15:38.760] its orbit, you know, even if it's a large, you know, new space station is not so insane
[01:15:38.760 --> 01:15:43.840] that it's just, you know, impossible with our capital now.
[01:15:43.840 --> 01:15:47.720] So that opens up the doors of heavier and heavier, you know, bigger, heavier things.
[01:15:47.720 --> 01:15:52.240] You can have cheap space hotels, you know, cheap being still hundreds of millions, but
[01:15:52.240 --> 01:15:55.040] not like billions, you know, you know, things like that will open up.
[01:15:55.040 --> 01:16:01.280] But I think that even makes it so as Bob might've whispered under his breath, nuclear engines.
[01:16:01.280 --> 01:16:06.280] I would, I would love to see if there is a resurgence of nuclear capabilities, both the
[01:16:06.280 --> 01:16:11.080] United States and the Soviet Union, fully developed nuclear rocket engines.
[01:16:11.080 --> 01:16:12.680] They're amazing.
[01:16:12.680 --> 01:16:15.760] There's no reason we shouldn't be using them, especially it doesn't make a ton of sense
[01:16:15.760 --> 01:16:17.360] in the earth moon system.
[01:16:17.360 --> 01:16:22.960] But as soon as you leave earth, a rocket engine from what I've read, though, there's a real
[01:16:22.960 --> 01:16:28.480] push now for nuclear rockets in the cislunar space because that is such a strategic space
[01:16:28.480 --> 01:16:31.280] and with China is trying to do it as well.
[01:16:31.280 --> 01:16:35.400] And from what I've read, the idea is that, you know, if something happens, you need to
[01:16:35.400 --> 01:16:40.280] move a lot of mass very quickly to a different space within cislunar space.
[01:16:40.280 --> 01:16:43.120] And chemical rockets are just not going to be able to handle that.
[01:16:43.120 --> 01:16:48.000] And you need something like a nuclear rocket to move, say a big satellite from there to
[01:16:48.000 --> 01:16:49.000] there.
[01:16:49.000 --> 01:16:50.000] The plan, I mean, you're right.
[01:16:50.000 --> 01:16:51.940] We have done a lot of research in the sixties and seventies.
[01:16:51.940 --> 01:16:56.600] We had it, we had the rockets, they were being tested, but now they're really, they're developing
[01:16:56.600 --> 01:17:02.240] them now and plan on having test beds in orbit, you know, at this decade, they're really pushing
[01:17:02.240 --> 01:17:06.120] for it and it's really the push for cislunar control of cislunar space.
[01:17:06.120 --> 01:17:10.060] The big problem with nuclear rockets though, is there's, well, there's two things they,
[01:17:10.060 --> 01:17:14.280] they run on hydrogen and obviously liquid hydrogen, it has no oxidizer.
[01:17:14.280 --> 01:17:19.080] All you're doing is heating up hydrogen with you know, with nuclear fission, hydrogen likes
[01:17:19.080 --> 01:17:20.080] to boil off.
[01:17:20.080 --> 01:17:22.060] So you really can't, it's not great for longterm.
[01:17:22.060 --> 01:17:26.260] If you're trying to sit it on a satellite for decades, it's going to take a lot of energy
[01:17:26.260 --> 01:17:28.780] just to keep that hydrogen in a liquid state.
[01:17:28.780 --> 01:17:30.860] It's going to want to boil off in a hurry.
[01:17:30.860 --> 01:17:35.220] So you know, it's, it's really uncommon to have, you know, like there's ACEs upper stage
[01:17:35.220 --> 01:17:39.060] and a few other upper stages that are looking into like literally having basically an internal
[01:17:39.060 --> 01:17:44.260] combustion engine that just sits there and recondenses the hydrogen constantly on orbit.
[01:17:44.260 --> 01:17:45.900] But you know, it's also really heavy.
[01:17:45.900 --> 01:17:49.980] The NERVA engine that the United States developed was so heavy.
[01:17:49.980 --> 01:17:54.540] The only vehicle that could lift it into orbit and the stage accompanying it was the Saturn
[01:17:54.540 --> 01:17:55.540] 5.
[01:17:55.540 --> 01:17:56.540] Oh yeah.
[01:17:56.540 --> 01:17:57.540] Yeah.
[01:17:57.540 --> 01:17:58.900] We'll be using chemical rockets for launching for a long time.
[01:17:58.900 --> 01:18:04.460] It's just, the thrust is just off the hook and, and nuclear rockets, you know, I haven't
[01:18:04.460 --> 01:18:08.460] seen any plans on using nuclear rockets for an actual launch system.
[01:18:08.460 --> 01:18:13.420] Usually they spew out too much radiation, but what about resupplying if hydrogen boil
[01:18:13.420 --> 01:18:14.420] off is an issue?
[01:18:14.420 --> 01:18:19.420] I mean, I would think just resupplying that in cislunar orbit somewhere between Earth-Moon
[01:18:19.420 --> 01:18:22.660] systems just to resupply that seems feasible.
[01:18:22.660 --> 01:18:27.820] The big thing, like I think in my opinion nuclear will be great for sending large, you
[01:18:27.820 --> 01:18:32.460] know, get, just get a bigger rocket out to your cislunar system or get a bigger satellite.
[01:18:32.460 --> 01:18:34.460] You know, like it'll do the translunar injection.
[01:18:34.460 --> 01:18:35.460] No problem.
[01:18:35.460 --> 01:18:39.080] You know, it can lift say two to three times more mass because you're using a nuclear engine
[01:18:39.080 --> 01:18:41.140] as your kick stage to get out there.
[01:18:41.140 --> 01:18:43.060] But then ditch that big, heavy thing.
[01:18:43.060 --> 01:18:47.060] You have way more, you use a storable propellant, you know, like a, a bi-propellant, something
[01:18:47.060 --> 01:18:51.660] that's hydrazine based or something can last decades like Voyager, you know, and or use,
[01:18:51.660 --> 01:18:56.140] you know, Xeon, use ion thrusters because ion thrusters are, are even more efficient.
[01:18:56.140 --> 01:19:01.620] You know, we're talking thousands of seconds of specific impulse instead of high hundreds,
[01:19:01.620 --> 01:19:02.620] nine hundreds.
[01:19:02.620 --> 01:19:03.620] Yeah.
[01:19:03.620 --> 01:19:04.620] But the acceleration, the acceleration is shit.
[01:19:04.620 --> 01:19:09.100] I mean, you don't want to, you can't, you can't move a lot of mass quickly, which, which
[01:19:09.100 --> 01:19:10.660] with using an ion engine, right?
[01:19:10.660 --> 01:19:12.140] You can't, that's just not going to happen.
[01:19:12.140 --> 01:19:14.140] I mean, the thrust is like the equivalent.
[01:19:14.140 --> 01:19:15.140] What's the iconic example?
[01:19:15.140 --> 01:19:16.740] A piece of paper on your finger.
[01:19:16.740 --> 01:19:20.740] That's the kind of acceleration, but it builds up and builds up and over weeks and months
[01:19:20.740 --> 01:19:26.860] you can have tremendously efficient and you can attain a lot of pretty intense velocity.
[01:19:26.860 --> 01:19:31.500] But my understanding of cislunar space is you need to move a lot of mass fast and nuclear
[01:19:31.500 --> 01:19:35.100] rockets they say is the way to do it into something.
[01:19:35.100 --> 01:19:37.340] So what do you think about a hundred years from now?
[01:19:37.340 --> 01:19:38.340] Okay.
[01:19:38.340 --> 01:19:42.020] How about so 50, a little bit like more near future.
[01:19:42.020 --> 01:19:46.620] I think we'll just see, you could potentially just see huge, huge, huge things in space.
[01:19:46.620 --> 01:19:48.660] I think, you know, nuclear will be great.
[01:19:48.660 --> 01:19:52.940] I think rotation detonation engines are another thing we'll see in the relatively near future.
[01:19:52.940 --> 01:19:56.380] Those are basically engines that don't, you know, like rock rocket engine doesn't actually
[01:19:56.380 --> 01:19:57.380] have any explosions.
[01:19:57.380 --> 01:19:59.100] It's all just a deflagration.
[01:19:59.100 --> 01:20:03.980] It's all a high energy gas, high pressure, hot gas that's flowing really quickly through
[01:20:03.980 --> 01:20:05.100] a D level nozzle.
[01:20:05.100 --> 01:20:10.140] But a rotation detonation engine literally takes and detonates fuel intentionally, but
[01:20:10.140 --> 01:20:15.300] it propagates in a circle, this detonation continually almost around like a, an aero
[01:20:15.300 --> 01:20:17.580] spike, which is another level of mine.
[01:20:17.580 --> 01:20:22.300] And that makes it so it can be substantially more efficient and makes it so the exhaust
[01:20:22.300 --> 01:20:25.220] is coming out already at hypersonic velocities.
[01:20:25.220 --> 01:20:26.960] So it's, or potentially a hypersonic thing.
[01:20:26.960 --> 01:20:30.340] So it's, that was, it would be a technology I'd love to see, but I think by then, you
[01:20:30.340 --> 01:20:34.500] know, just hanging out in space, I just really think in 50 years we'll definitely have some
[01:20:34.500 --> 01:20:38.460] substantial like it won't be a big deal to go to space, but I think it's only, I think
[01:20:38.460 --> 01:20:42.420] we're still going to be using scaled up cheaper versions of what we see today, basically.
[01:20:42.420 --> 01:20:44.980] I don't think in 50 years we're going to have some huge breakthrough yet.
[01:20:44.980 --> 01:20:47.220] I think it's still going to be, I mean, physics is physics.
[01:20:47.220 --> 01:20:51.500] And until we figure something out, you know, we're just going to be kind of using bigger,
[01:20:51.500 --> 01:20:54.540] cheaper, more commercially available options of what we currently have.
[01:20:54.540 --> 01:20:55.540] So chemical rockets.
[01:20:55.540 --> 01:20:59.020] So for the next 50 years, chemical rockets still, I hope not, I hope you're wrong because
[01:20:59.020 --> 01:21:02.420] I'm hoping for a bunch of nuclear rockets.
[01:21:02.420 --> 01:21:03.940] Nuclear is still a chemical rocket.
[01:21:03.940 --> 01:21:07.340] I mean, yeah, she doesn't have a chemical reaction, but we're using traditional propellants.
[01:21:07.340 --> 01:21:08.340] Yeah.
[01:21:08.340 --> 01:21:09.340] Well, okay.
[01:21:09.340 --> 01:21:10.340] Yeah.
[01:21:10.340 --> 01:21:11.340] We don't, yeah.
[01:21:11.340 --> 01:21:14.300] We don't describe it that way because it's a chemical rocket and then nuclear rocket.
[01:21:14.300 --> 01:21:18.580] And then beyond that, yeah, fusion, fusion.
[01:21:18.580 --> 01:21:22.980] I think we, yeah, we have to have a lot of different kinds of rockets, everything optimized
[01:21:22.980 --> 01:21:26.980] for its specific function because rather than trying to have one size fits all, there's
[01:21:26.980 --> 01:21:29.300] just too many specific things we need to do.
[01:21:29.300 --> 01:21:33.540] What do you think of the role of solar or light sails?
[01:21:33.540 --> 01:21:38.900] It'll be interesting if light sails, you know, things like light sails are exciting.
[01:21:38.900 --> 01:21:42.100] You know, obviously there's a handful that have been flown so far, but you know, they're
[01:21:42.100 --> 01:21:43.460] really, really, really limited right now.
[01:21:43.460 --> 01:21:47.220] Like they just, you have to have something insanely massive and fold out big fragile
[01:21:47.220 --> 01:21:49.140] thing just to fly around like a shoe box.
[01:21:49.140 --> 01:21:50.140] You know what I mean?
[01:21:50.140 --> 01:21:53.100] It's, it's, it's really hard to scale that up.
[01:21:53.100 --> 01:21:56.820] But things like pointing a bunch of lasers, a huge laser array at like a reflector and
[01:21:56.820 --> 01:21:59.700] shooting that off like to another star or something.
[01:21:59.700 --> 01:22:02.620] I hope that's something we see in the next 50 years.
[01:22:02.620 --> 01:22:06.580] That's our best chance to, to get there in the next couple of generations is that type
[01:22:06.580 --> 01:22:08.420] of, that type of technology.
[01:22:08.420 --> 01:22:09.420] Chemicals not going to do it.
[01:22:09.420 --> 01:22:10.420] No, no, no, no.
[01:22:10.420 --> 01:22:11.420] That's where definitely not.
[01:22:11.420 --> 01:22:13.980] We've got to have some, you know, light propulsion type of thing.
[01:22:13.980 --> 01:22:17.420] And hopefully in after 50 years, you know, hopefully we have a better understanding of
[01:22:17.420 --> 01:22:21.900] physics and we learn how to potentially exploit physics, you know, or something like that,
[01:22:21.900 --> 01:22:22.900] you know?
[01:22:22.900 --> 01:22:25.500] Cause I feel like we're still making a lot of discoveries about, you know, our understanding
[01:22:25.500 --> 01:22:30.620] of our place amongst the stars, you know, all everything, you know, Higgs boson type
[01:22:30.620 --> 01:22:31.620] of things.
[01:22:31.620 --> 01:22:35.100] And who knows, we might finally understand how to open up like a wormhole in a couple
[01:22:35.100 --> 01:22:36.100] of years.
[01:22:36.100 --> 01:22:37.100] Yeah.
[01:22:37.100 --> 01:22:38.100] I'm not.
[01:22:38.100 --> 01:22:39.100] Yeah.
[01:22:39.100 --> 01:22:40.100] That, that would be wonderful.
[01:22:40.100 --> 01:22:41.100] Yeah.
[01:22:41.100 --> 01:22:42.100] I hope so for that.
[01:22:42.100 --> 01:22:43.100] Right.
[01:22:43.100 --> 01:22:44.100] I won't be around for it.
[01:22:44.100 --> 01:22:45.100] I won't be around for it.
[01:22:45.100 --> 01:22:48.420] How long do you think, how long do you think it's going to take us to land a person on
[01:22:48.420 --> 01:22:49.420] Mars?
[01:22:49.420 --> 01:22:50.420] I used to say 2030.
[01:22:50.420 --> 01:22:53.380] I actually thought there's a decent chance that humans would walk on Mars in 2030.
[01:22:53.380 --> 01:22:58.180] I'm starting to get, I'm getting a bit worn down right now from scrub city, basically.
[01:22:58.180 --> 01:23:03.260] Um, you know, watching Artemis scrub, watching Starship take longer than, than anticipated.
[01:23:03.260 --> 01:23:05.740] Watching, I mean, just things just take a long time.
[01:23:05.740 --> 01:23:07.420] So I'm not as optimistic about 2030.
[01:23:07.420 --> 01:23:10.980] Anyway, as, as optimistic about 2030 as I used to be, I think it'll probably be in the
[01:23:10.980 --> 01:23:11.980] 2030s.
[01:23:11.980 --> 01:23:12.980] In the 2030s.
[01:23:12.980 --> 01:23:13.980] That'd be nice.
[01:23:13.980 --> 01:23:14.980] Five.
[01:23:14.980 --> 01:23:15.980] Yeah.
[01:23:15.980 --> 01:23:16.980] Yeah.
[01:23:16.980 --> 01:23:17.980] Okay.
[01:23:17.980 --> 01:23:18.980] That's right.
[01:23:18.980 --> 01:23:19.980] It sounds a little optimistic, but I hope you're right.
[01:23:19.980 --> 01:23:20.980] It really isn't that far off.
[01:23:20.980 --> 01:23:21.980] If you think about it.
[01:23:21.980 --> 01:23:26.660] I mean, we're talking about just over a decade, but that, yeah, that requires a lot of things
[01:23:26.660 --> 01:23:27.660] go well and on time.
[01:23:27.660 --> 01:23:28.660] Pretty much between now and then.
[01:23:28.660 --> 01:23:29.660] Yeah.
[01:23:29.660 --> 01:23:30.660] Yeah.
[01:23:30.660 --> 01:23:31.660] Unexpected delays.
[01:23:31.660 --> 01:23:32.660] We get the James Webb syndrome going on.
[01:23:32.660 --> 01:23:34.220] The tail of the dragon is just hard to predict though when you have, you know, again, like
[01:23:34.220 --> 01:23:38.220] if you had tried to predict the success of the Falcon nine before they had landed a Falcon
[01:23:38.220 --> 01:23:43.820] nine in 2015, like July of 2015, actually, here we go, June, 2015, when they blew up
[01:23:43.820 --> 01:23:50.680] a CRS seven, this is, uh, I think it was like June 31st or something, 2015, uh, they, they
[01:23:50.680 --> 01:23:53.020] lost a Falcon nine in flight.
[01:23:53.020 --> 01:23:57.900] And if you try to predict then like what's 2022 going to look like, I don't think anyone
[01:23:57.900 --> 01:24:02.240] in their mind would have said, Oh, they'll be flying these things 14 times with minimal
[01:24:02.240 --> 01:24:06.100] refurbishment and they'll be flying 60 times that year with the Falcon nine.
[01:24:06.100 --> 01:24:07.100] Yeah.
[01:24:07.100 --> 01:24:08.100] Like there's just no way.
[01:24:08.100 --> 01:24:11.780] You know, even trying to predict what's going to happen in five more years from now is just
[01:24:11.780 --> 01:24:12.780] really hard to predict.
[01:24:12.780 --> 01:24:14.060] And companies like rocket lab too.
[01:24:14.060 --> 01:24:18.100] I mean, they're, they're launching, they had a turnaround time of like 15 days recently
[01:24:18.100 --> 01:24:21.100] and they, you know, and they're starting to kick butt and ramp up too.
[01:24:21.100 --> 01:24:25.500] So it's just really hard to predict these curves, you know, it, it kind of sneaks up
[01:24:25.500 --> 01:24:30.860] on you and you could be off by two years and on either side of that and be completely off
[01:24:30.860 --> 01:24:35.340] by an order of magnitude, you know, it's just all right, Tim, it was wonderful to have you
[01:24:35.340 --> 01:24:36.340] on the show.
[01:24:36.340 --> 01:24:38.820] You're always a, you know, a wealth of information.
[01:24:38.820 --> 01:24:40.700] We'll definitely get you back.
[01:24:40.700 --> 01:24:45.360] Definitely want to get you back when, when like Artemis is getting before we have boots
[01:24:45.360 --> 01:24:49.100] on the ground on the moon, but we'll, we'll be happy to track the whole thing with you.
[01:24:49.100 --> 01:24:50.100] Thank you, Tim.
[01:24:50.100 --> 01:24:51.100] Thanks again.
[01:24:51.100 --> 01:24:52.100] Take care brother.
[01:24:52.100 --> 01:24:53.100] Yes.
[01:24:53.100 --> 01:24:54.100] Thank you guys.
[01:24:54.100 --> 01:24:55.100] We'll see you.
Science or Fiction (1:24:55)
Theme: Past inventions that utterly failed
Item #1: In 1983, in response to the Sony Walkman craze, Audio Technica released the Sound Burger, a portable record player, complete with earbuds.[4]
Item #2: In 1981 a Swedish company marketed an all-plastic bicycle, the Itera, which turned out to be expensive to produce but failed mostly because the weak frame made it too wobbly to ride.[5]
Item #3: In the 1930s architect Buckminster Fuller designed a pre-fab house designed to be inexpensive, quick to build, and ecofriendly, made mostly out of waste cow bones from the beef industry.[6]
Item #4: In 1964, Claus Scholz of Vienna invented a phone-answering robot; however, its ability was limited to picking up and hanging up the phone.[7][8]
| Answer | Item |
|---|---|
| Fiction | Cow bones pre fab house |
| Science | Portable record player |
| Science | All-plastic bicycle |
| Science | Phone-answering robot |
| Host | Result |
|---|---|
| Steve | win |
| Rogue | Guess |
|---|---|
Evan | All-plastic bicycle |
Bob | Portable record player |
Jay | Cow bones pre fab house |
Cara | Cow bones pre fab house |
Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.
Evan's Response
Bob's Response
Jay's Response
Cara's Response
Viewers' Responses
Steve Explains Item #4
Steve Explains Item #1
Steve Explains Item #2
Steve Explains Item #3
[01:24:55.100 --> 01:24:57.620] Let's move on with science or fiction.
[01:24:57.620 --> 01:25:07.100] It's time for science or fiction.
[01:25:07.100 --> 01:25:11.860] Each week I come up with three science news items, four facts, two real and one fake.
[01:25:11.860 --> 01:25:16.900] And then I challenge my panel of skeptics to tell me which one is the fake for this
[01:25:16.900 --> 01:25:17.900] episode.
[01:25:17.900 --> 01:25:18.900] I have four items.
[01:25:18.900 --> 01:25:23.400] I haven't done that in a very long time, but I had four items and there's a theme of course.
[01:25:23.400 --> 01:25:32.100] The theme is past inventions that utterly failed or past technology that failed to change
[01:25:32.100 --> 01:25:34.500] the future or make it into the future.
[01:25:34.500 --> 01:25:39.980] One of the themes of the book is that you can't, like the future is not inevitable the
[01:25:39.980 --> 01:25:42.340] same way our present wasn't inevitable.
[01:25:42.340 --> 01:25:48.460] It's made by choices that we make individually and collectively, and it's made also by lots
[01:25:48.460 --> 01:25:51.660] of considerations, not just what's the best technology.
[01:25:51.660 --> 01:25:55.020] And so these are just examples, not in the book, so no one has an unfair advantage, just
[01:25:55.020 --> 01:25:59.900] examples of technology that didn't make it through for whatever reason.
[01:25:59.900 --> 01:26:00.900] Okay?
[01:26:00.900 --> 01:26:03.380] And of course one of these is made up, is not true.
[01:26:03.380 --> 01:26:12.580] So item number one, in 1983, in response to the Sony Walkman craze, Audio Technica released
[01:26:12.580 --> 01:26:16.540] the Sound Burger, a portable record player complete with earbuds.
[01:26:16.540 --> 01:26:23.660] Item number two, in 1981, a Swedish company marketed an all plastic bicycle, the Iterra,
[01:26:23.660 --> 01:26:28.900] which turned out to be more expensive to produce, but failed mostly because the weak frame made
[01:26:28.900 --> 01:26:30.940] it too wobbly to ride.
[01:26:30.940 --> 01:26:38.460] Item number three, in the 1930s, architect Buckminster Fuller designed a prefab home
[01:26:38.460 --> 01:26:44.500] designed to be inexpensive, quick to build, and eco-friendly, made mostly out of waste
[01:26:44.500 --> 01:26:47.700] cow bones from the beef industry.
[01:26:47.700 --> 01:26:55.980] And item number four, in 1964, Klaus Schultz, that's S-C-H-O-L-Z, of Vienna, invented a
[01:26:55.980 --> 01:27:01.420] phone answering robot, however, its ability was limited to picking up and hanging up the
[01:27:01.420 --> 01:27:02.420] phone.
[01:27:02.420 --> 01:27:07.380] Okay, we're going to go down the row here, starting with you, Evan.
[01:27:07.380 --> 01:27:13.340] The Sony Walkman one and the Sound Burger, I would like to think that I actually heard
[01:27:13.340 --> 01:27:18.140] about that at some point, I used to be in the audio-visual industry, but I have a feeling
[01:27:18.140 --> 01:27:20.540] it's a conflated memory of some kind.
[01:27:20.540 --> 01:27:26.060] It does sound plausible, there were, I mean, the competition for Walkman at the time absolutely
[01:27:26.060 --> 01:27:31.420] was there, and this is about the time the first, I think, portable CD player was about
[01:27:31.420 --> 01:27:37.780] to come out, so there was a lot of stuff going on in the portable audio world then, I totally
[01:27:37.780 --> 01:27:39.700] believe that that one's right.
[01:27:39.700 --> 01:27:43.660] The next one about the plastic bicycle, never heard about this one before, doesn't mean
[01:27:43.660 --> 01:27:47.740] anything, but turned out to be more expensive to produce but failed mostly because of the
[01:27:47.740 --> 01:27:55.020] weak frame, too wobbly to ride, well that sounds like that would be the reason why it
[01:27:55.020 --> 01:27:59.660] would fail, I'm not sure about this one, something seems a little off here.
[01:27:59.660 --> 01:28:05.620] The third one about Buckminster Fuller and this prefab home designed to be inexpensive,
[01:28:05.620 --> 01:28:11.420] I had a prefab home once, didn't I, or one was built in a, who built that for you?
[01:28:11.420 --> 01:28:19.740] I think Jay, you might have had a hand in that, it's still standing, so well done, but
[01:28:19.740 --> 01:28:25.480] this one in the 1930s, mostly out of the waste of cow bones from the beef industry, not totally
[01:28:25.480 --> 01:28:30.780] implausible, I mean it sounds ridiculous in a certain way, but I don't know that that's
[01:28:30.780 --> 01:28:34.940] necessarily looking for new building materials or different building materials, I don't have
[01:28:34.940 --> 01:28:36.260] a problem with that one.
[01:28:36.260 --> 01:28:41.820] And the last one about the, this is the funniest one, the robot, you actually, what are you
[01:28:41.820 --> 01:28:47.660] going to make a robot to pick up, I mean that's what would happen though, in that time, 1964,
[01:28:47.660 --> 01:28:51.860] you would have a mechanical arm of some kind that would have to do the physical picking
[01:28:51.860 --> 01:28:56.580] up of the phone, you're not reinventing the phone or anything, it's just the physicality
[01:28:56.580 --> 01:28:57.580] of it.
[01:28:57.580 --> 01:29:03.360] So the least, the one I think is the fiction is the plastic bicycle one, whereas I see
[01:29:03.360 --> 01:29:08.460] some sorts of plausibilities kind of in the other items, this one seems like, Steve, you
[01:29:08.460 --> 01:29:10.540] might think you made it up out of whole cloth.
[01:29:10.540 --> 01:29:11.540] Okay, Bob.
[01:29:11.540 --> 01:29:16.980] Let's start from the bottom, the phone answering machine in 64, yeah, I mean technically possible
[01:29:16.980 --> 01:29:20.640] at that time, but it also makes sense that it wouldn't be able to tap in and really do
[01:29:20.640 --> 01:29:23.940] anything other than pick it up and hang it up, and it doesn't say anything really came
[01:29:23.940 --> 01:29:27.260] of it, so that makes sense because nothing really would have come of that, so I guess
[01:29:27.260 --> 01:29:28.780] I'll say that one's science.
[01:29:28.780 --> 01:29:35.420] Bookminster Fuller, wow, I mean, cow bones, I don't know, it doesn't strike me as something
[01:29:35.420 --> 01:29:39.540] that, oh no, no way that ever happened, so maybe I'll just go with that one, but it sounds
[01:29:39.540 --> 01:29:40.540] so bizarre.
[01:29:40.540 --> 01:29:42.700] The plastic bicycle kind of makes sense.
[01:29:42.700 --> 01:29:47.480] The one that I had an issue with, the portable record player, I mean, how do you keep it
[01:29:47.480 --> 01:29:48.480] from skipping?
[01:29:48.480 --> 01:29:56.500] You know, I mean, I think I remember seeing one that was in a car, but that's far different
[01:29:56.500 --> 01:30:02.100] from a portable one, as you say here, so I think this might be a riff-off of the one
[01:30:02.100 --> 01:30:07.060] that was designed for a car, and even that one sounds like it would be problematic, but
[01:30:07.060 --> 01:30:13.300] I mean, putting a regular record with a needle on it that's portable, I mean, I don't know
[01:30:13.300 --> 01:30:15.380] how that would be designed in such a way.
[01:30:15.380 --> 01:30:18.740] I mean, would it be such a tight fit that it really just couldn't, the needle couldn't
[01:30:18.740 --> 01:30:19.740] bounce off it?
[01:30:19.740 --> 01:30:24.340] I don't know, for whatever reason, I'll say this one is fiction, it's probably wrong.
[01:30:24.340 --> 01:30:26.020] All right, Jay, what about you?
[01:30:26.020 --> 01:30:31.460] All right, to answer Bob's question, I would imagine, Bob, that you carry this small record
[01:30:31.460 --> 01:30:35.700] player with you and you just put it down, and then the whole problem that you said is
[01:30:35.700 --> 01:30:40.380] you're not going to be riding a bicycle while you're playing it.
[01:30:40.380 --> 01:30:45.620] But walking down the street with a Walkman is kind of a critical component to a portable
[01:30:45.620 --> 01:30:46.620] record player.
[01:30:46.620 --> 01:30:49.420] Right, but it doesn't say it's a Walkman, it says it's a Soundburger.
[01:30:49.420 --> 01:30:54.700] It's a portable record player, which I took as you take it with you and you plop it down
[01:30:54.700 --> 01:30:55.700] and you play with it.
[01:30:55.700 --> 01:30:58.820] That may very well be, but it does say, in response to the Sony Walkman.
[01:30:58.820 --> 01:31:00.420] Yeah, but why would anybody-
[01:31:00.420 --> 01:31:01.420] Craze.
[01:31:01.420 --> 01:31:06.660] But I think what you're doing, Bob, is you're saying, well, because it's a Sony Walkman
[01:31:06.660 --> 01:31:10.060] craze, that's almost like the tricky part here.
[01:31:10.060 --> 01:31:15.620] There's no way that any kind of record player would perform better than a cassette player.
[01:31:15.620 --> 01:31:18.580] I think the idea is it's the portability aspect of it.
[01:31:18.580 --> 01:31:19.580] I now take my-
[01:31:19.580 --> 01:31:20.580] I get you.
[01:31:20.580 --> 01:31:23.500] That's a reasonable way to interpret it, and mine might be reasonable as well, so we'll
[01:31:23.500 --> 01:31:25.500] see, won't we?
[01:31:25.500 --> 01:31:29.200] The plastic bicycle, of course somebody made a plastic bicycle.
[01:31:29.200 --> 01:31:34.220] The next one, the architect, waste cow bones.
[01:31:34.220 --> 01:31:36.100] I'm going to just stop you right there, Steve.
[01:31:36.100 --> 01:31:37.100] I just-
[01:31:37.100 --> 01:31:38.100] That's good.
[01:31:38.100 --> 01:31:39.820] I always wanted to say that to somebody.
[01:31:39.820 --> 01:31:43.540] There's no way that somebody was building houses out of cow bones.
[01:31:43.540 --> 01:31:44.900] I think that one is a fiction.
[01:31:44.900 --> 01:31:45.900] No way, no how.
[01:31:45.900 --> 01:31:51.460] Okay, so Bob is the Soundburger, Jay is the cow bones, Evan is the robot.
[01:31:51.460 --> 01:31:52.460] So Cara-
[01:31:52.460 --> 01:31:53.460] No, I'm the bicycle.
[01:31:53.460 --> 01:31:54.460] Oh, you're the bicycle.
[01:31:54.460 --> 01:31:56.020] All right, so one, two, and three.
[01:31:56.020 --> 01:31:57.020] So Cara, you're up.
[01:31:57.020 --> 01:31:58.020] Go ahead.
[01:31:58.020 --> 01:31:59.020] Take it.
[01:31:59.020 --> 01:32:00.020] Take the last one.
[01:32:00.020 --> 01:32:01.020] I'm not going to pick the robot.
[01:32:01.020 --> 01:32:02.020] Sorry.
[01:32:02.020 --> 01:32:03.020] No.
[01:32:03.020 --> 01:32:04.020] I'm not going to be that spread out.
[01:32:04.020 --> 01:32:06.060] Jay, I have been with you since the beginning.
[01:32:06.060 --> 01:32:07.900] I've been thinking about this a lot.
[01:32:07.900 --> 01:32:13.740] So obviously someone made a plastic bicycle and obviously it was a piece of crap.
[01:32:13.740 --> 01:32:17.800] And of course you could make a portable record player, whether it was meant to be played
[01:32:17.800 --> 01:32:22.180] on a table or on your hip, it doesn't matter if it was good.
[01:32:22.180 --> 01:32:23.900] You just made it, right?
[01:32:23.900 --> 01:32:26.060] And so of course somebody attempted this.
[01:32:26.060 --> 01:32:27.940] And maybe it was good because maybe Jay's recent-
[01:32:27.940 --> 01:32:28.940] It doesn't say made it.
[01:32:28.940 --> 01:32:29.940] It said released.
[01:32:29.940 --> 01:32:30.940] Yeah.
[01:32:30.940 --> 01:32:31.940] Okay.
[01:32:31.940 --> 01:32:33.460] They might've sold it to you.
[01:32:33.460 --> 01:32:39.180] There is an entire museum in LA dedicated to crappy products that don't work well that
[01:32:39.180 --> 01:32:40.620] were actually released.
[01:32:40.620 --> 01:32:42.380] I'm not surprised by this.
[01:32:42.380 --> 01:32:46.220] Buckminster Fuller, famously geodesic dome.
[01:32:46.220 --> 01:32:48.820] I feel like maybe that's where Steve's trying to go.
[01:32:48.820 --> 01:32:51.860] We're imagining a geodesic dome made out of cow bones.
[01:32:51.860 --> 01:32:57.020] Buckminster Fuller was like a real architect who made amazing stuff and he probably did
[01:32:57.020 --> 01:32:59.500] make prefab houses as early as the thirties.
[01:32:59.500 --> 01:33:02.220] I wouldn't be surprised by that because he was really innovative.
[01:33:02.220 --> 01:33:05.300] I don't think making something out of cow bones is innovative.
[01:33:05.300 --> 01:33:06.420] I think that's rustic.
[01:33:06.420 --> 01:33:07.900] It just doesn't make sense to me.
[01:33:07.900 --> 01:33:09.860] It doesn't fit my impression of him.
[01:33:09.860 --> 01:33:12.500] So to me that's got to be the fiction.
[01:33:12.500 --> 01:33:13.500] All right.
[01:33:13.500 --> 01:33:19.860] Ian, do we have a vote tally from the live audience or it looks like the vast majority
[01:33:19.860 --> 01:33:23.900] went with Jay and Kara with the cow bones.
[01:33:23.900 --> 01:33:24.900] All right.
[01:33:24.900 --> 01:33:29.420] So most people, all the rogues and most of the audience think that number four is science.
[01:33:29.420 --> 01:33:30.700] So we'll start there.
[01:33:30.700 --> 01:33:35.220] In 1964, Klaus Schultz of Vienna invented a phone answering robot.
[01:33:35.220 --> 01:33:41.060] However, its ability was limited to picking up and hanging up the phone.
[01:33:41.060 --> 01:33:42.580] Everyone pretty much thinks this one is science.
[01:33:42.580 --> 01:33:43.860] You're going to get us all?
[01:33:43.860 --> 01:33:46.420] And this one is science.
[01:33:46.420 --> 01:33:48.460] This is science.
[01:33:48.460 --> 01:33:50.780] He actually did that.
[01:33:50.780 --> 01:33:54.340] So yeah, he made up, we'll talk about it in a second, but he made a robot.
[01:33:54.340 --> 01:33:56.940] All it did was pick the phone up and hang it down.
[01:33:56.940 --> 01:33:57.940] Didn't do anything.
[01:33:57.940 --> 01:33:58.940] Didn't give a message.
[01:33:58.940 --> 01:33:59.940] Didn't take a message.
[01:33:59.940 --> 01:34:01.140] Technically, it's a phone answering machine.
[01:34:01.140 --> 01:34:04.340] It just picked up the receiver and set it back down.
[01:34:04.340 --> 01:34:06.060] So it's a hang up device.
[01:34:06.060 --> 01:34:07.900] Call comes in, hang it up.
[01:34:07.900 --> 01:34:09.780] It's a phone not answering machine.
[01:34:09.780 --> 01:34:13.680] I'm not sure what utility he thought it would have, maybe for somebody who couldn't physically
[01:34:13.680 --> 01:34:15.260] pick up the phone.
[01:34:15.260 --> 01:34:21.460] And he made like a full robot to do this, not an arm, a full humanoid robot.
[01:34:21.460 --> 01:34:22.460] What would be that purpose?
[01:34:22.460 --> 01:34:27.820] It's like Simone Yates, like all of her cool, shitty robots, just like for fun.
[01:34:27.820 --> 01:34:32.620] Interestingly, 1964 was the same year that they came out with the tape-based answering
[01:34:32.620 --> 01:34:33.620] machine.
[01:34:33.620 --> 01:34:34.620] Oh, interesting.
[01:34:34.620 --> 01:34:35.620] You know, actual answering machine.
[01:34:35.620 --> 01:34:36.620] And it was also the year they came out with Steve.
[01:34:36.620 --> 01:34:37.620] That's true.
[01:34:37.620 --> 01:34:38.620] All right.
[01:34:38.620 --> 01:34:39.620] Three hours, halfway done.
[01:34:39.620 --> 01:34:40.620] All right, guys.
[01:34:40.620 --> 01:34:45.620] The rest of these I'm going to take in order just so I can go through the pictures in order.
[01:34:45.620 --> 01:34:46.620] Oh, boy.
[01:34:46.620 --> 01:34:51.460] In 1983, in response to the Sony Walkman craze, Audio Technica released the Soundburger, a
[01:34:51.460 --> 01:34:54.100] portable record player complete with earbuds.
[01:34:54.100 --> 01:34:58.300] Bob, you think this was the fiction about, what was it, like 20% or so of the audience
[01:34:58.300 --> 01:35:00.220] think this one is the fiction.
[01:35:00.220 --> 01:35:05.180] And this one is science.
[01:35:05.180 --> 01:35:07.620] So Jay is basically correct.
[01:35:07.620 --> 01:35:08.620] There it is, the Soundburger.
[01:35:08.620 --> 01:35:09.620] Look at that thing.
[01:35:09.620 --> 01:35:10.620] Look at that, Bob.
[01:35:10.620 --> 01:35:11.620] It's like you can't ride a horse with this thing.
[01:35:11.620 --> 01:35:12.620] It was in reaction to the Walkman.
[01:35:12.620 --> 01:35:13.620] Are those 45s?
[01:35:13.620 --> 01:35:17.140] It was in reaction to the Walkman, which was the diversion.
[01:35:17.140 --> 01:35:21.460] That was the red herring, because I wanted you to think, how are you going to walk around
[01:35:21.460 --> 01:35:22.460] with a record player?
[01:35:22.460 --> 01:35:23.460] Yeah, you got me again.
[01:35:23.460 --> 01:35:24.460] Congratulations, Steve.
[01:35:24.460 --> 01:35:25.460] You nailed it.
[01:35:25.460 --> 01:35:27.320] You do have to put it down.
[01:35:27.320 --> 01:35:31.780] And that's why it failed, because you have to put it down on a hard, stable surface.
[01:35:31.780 --> 01:35:37.180] So it doesn't replace the Walkman in any meaningful way.
[01:35:37.180 --> 01:35:38.500] That's got to be battery powered, though.
[01:35:38.500 --> 01:35:39.500] It's battery powered?
[01:35:39.500 --> 01:35:40.500] It is something.
[01:35:40.500 --> 01:35:41.500] It has earbuds.
[01:35:41.500 --> 01:35:42.500] Here's the thing.
[01:35:42.500 --> 01:35:45.740] So it basically failed, because of course it did.
[01:35:45.740 --> 01:35:47.860] CDs were just exploding.
[01:35:47.860 --> 01:35:55.020] You know that turntables, that vinyl, is having a resurgence among millennials and younger
[01:35:55.020 --> 01:35:56.020] generation.
[01:35:56.020 --> 01:35:59.620] And apparently, the Soundburger has fantastic sound.
[01:35:59.620 --> 01:36:04.020] And it's really come into high demand recently.
[01:36:04.020 --> 01:36:05.020] It's funny.
[01:36:05.020 --> 01:36:08.060] I even loved, Steve, that you said it had earbuds.
[01:36:08.060 --> 01:36:09.740] I doubt it had earbuds.
[01:36:09.740 --> 01:36:11.740] I doubt earbuds existed.
[01:36:11.740 --> 01:36:12.740] No, it said it had earbuds.
[01:36:12.740 --> 01:36:13.740] It had earbuds.
[01:36:13.740 --> 01:36:14.740] I didn't make that up.
[01:36:14.740 --> 01:36:15.740] Like, buds?
[01:36:15.740 --> 01:36:16.740] Yeah.
[01:36:16.740 --> 01:36:17.740] I don't even think those existed then.
[01:36:17.740 --> 01:36:18.740] Yeah.
[01:36:18.740 --> 01:36:19.740] I'm looking up when earbuds came out.
[01:36:19.740 --> 01:36:20.740] Not wireless.
[01:36:20.740 --> 01:36:21.740] Not wireless, but they were in the ear.
[01:36:21.740 --> 01:36:22.740] No, I know.
[01:36:22.740 --> 01:36:23.740] Kara, they had them in the 60s.
[01:36:23.740 --> 01:36:24.740] With a phone.
[01:36:24.740 --> 01:36:25.740] Not headphones.
[01:36:25.740 --> 01:36:26.740] Earbuds.
[01:36:26.740 --> 01:36:27.740] Oh, the phone ones, yeah.
[01:36:27.740 --> 01:36:28.740] Transistor radios had earbuds.
[01:36:28.740 --> 01:36:31.740] They were like headphones, but they were tiny, like the little phone ones.
[01:36:31.740 --> 01:36:32.740] There's nothing new about that.
[01:36:32.740 --> 01:36:33.740] It had earbuds.
[01:36:33.740 --> 01:36:35.740] Transistor radios had earbuds, too.
[01:36:35.740 --> 01:36:36.740] All right.
[01:36:36.740 --> 01:36:37.740] That looks like a 45 record only.
[01:36:37.740 --> 01:36:38.740] Yeah.
[01:36:38.740 --> 01:36:39.740] It could play the full ones, too.
[01:36:39.740 --> 01:36:40.740] The 33s?
[01:36:40.740 --> 01:36:41.740] Oh, my God.
[01:36:41.740 --> 01:36:42.740] The full ones?
[01:36:42.740 --> 01:36:43.740] Yeah.
[01:36:43.740 --> 01:36:44.740] That's funny.
[01:36:44.740 --> 01:36:45.740] All right.
[01:36:45.740 --> 01:36:46.740] So, wait.
[01:36:46.740 --> 01:36:47.740] So, Steve, people are buying those up?
[01:36:47.740 --> 01:36:48.740] Yeah.
[01:36:48.740 --> 01:36:49.740] Yeah.
[01:36:49.740 --> 01:36:50.740] Yeah, I'm not surprised.
[01:36:50.740 --> 01:36:51.740] All right.
[01:36:51.740 --> 01:36:52.740] Let's go to number two.
[01:36:52.740 --> 01:36:55.140] In 1981, a Swedish company marketed an all-plastic bicycle, the Iterra, which turned out to be
[01:36:55.140 --> 01:37:00.000] more expensive to produce but failed mostly because the weak frame made it too wobbly to
[01:37:00.000 --> 01:37:01.000] ride.
[01:37:01.000 --> 01:37:02.500] Evan, you think this is the fiction.
[01:37:02.500 --> 01:37:03.740] Yeah, I thought so.
[01:37:03.740 --> 01:37:05.200] This one is science.
[01:37:05.200 --> 01:37:08.020] There it is, the all-plastic Iterra.
[01:37:08.020 --> 01:37:12.580] They made a ton of these things, like hundreds of thousands of them, whatever.
[01:37:12.580 --> 01:37:13.580] No.
[01:37:13.580 --> 01:37:14.580] Sure, why not?
[01:37:14.580 --> 01:37:17.900] The idea was they wanted to make a bicycle out of essentially recycled plastic to use
[01:37:17.900 --> 01:37:20.980] up all the plastic that was being created.
[01:37:20.980 --> 01:37:24.980] And it looks like a bicycle, but it just was not strong enough.
[01:37:24.980 --> 01:37:28.380] The frame itself would buckle and was wobbly.
[01:37:28.380 --> 01:37:30.860] As if they didn't test their own product before they mass produced it.
[01:37:30.860 --> 01:37:31.860] Yeah.
[01:37:31.860 --> 01:37:32.860] It's almost as if they didn't engineer it properly.
[01:37:32.860 --> 01:37:34.100] What the hell they didn't put a person on the thing?
[01:37:34.100 --> 01:37:38.500] And so they basically had to throw out hundreds of thousands of these bicycles.
[01:37:38.500 --> 01:37:41.620] They just had to get rid of them.
[01:37:41.620 --> 01:37:43.180] The guy that made the company must have felt great.
[01:37:43.180 --> 01:37:45.100] He's like, I want to take garbage, like plastic out of it.
[01:37:45.100 --> 01:37:48.100] Well, I think he got confused by the term recycle when it came to this.
[01:37:48.100 --> 01:37:49.100] So it became conflation.
[01:37:49.100 --> 01:37:50.100] Yeah, there you go.
[01:37:50.100 --> 01:37:51.100] All right.
[01:37:51.100 --> 01:37:52.100] All this means.
[01:37:52.100 --> 01:37:56.620] All this means that in the 1930s, architect Buckminster Fuller designed a prefab home designed
[01:37:56.620 --> 01:38:02.260] to be inexpensive, quick to build, and eco-friendly, made mostly out of waste cow bones from the
[01:38:02.260 --> 01:38:04.500] beef industry is the fiction.
[01:38:04.500 --> 01:38:08.500] Somebody in the chat already pointed out that Buckminster Fuller, and Kara, you said it.
[01:38:08.500 --> 01:38:12.380] He did make a prefab house, the Dymaxion.
[01:38:12.380 --> 01:38:13.380] He made it out of chrome.
[01:38:13.380 --> 01:38:14.380] Oh, cool.
[01:38:14.380 --> 01:38:15.380] Made it out of chrome.
[01:38:15.380 --> 01:38:16.380] Oh, I saw that too.
[01:38:16.380 --> 01:38:17.380] Yeah.
[01:38:17.380 --> 01:38:18.380] I've never seen that.
[01:38:18.380 --> 01:38:20.940] And you could fit the components onto one truck.
[01:38:20.940 --> 01:38:23.260] You could assemble it in two days.
[01:38:23.260 --> 01:38:27.220] That can't include the site work, but assuming the site work is done, you could assemble
[01:38:27.220 --> 01:38:28.640] it in two days.
[01:38:28.640 --> 01:38:32.500] It failed for what I'm reading- Of course it failed.
[01:38:32.500 --> 01:38:34.780] Look at the miserable expression on that guy in the house.
[01:38:34.780 --> 01:38:38.100] It failed for two reasons that I read.
[01:38:38.100 --> 01:38:40.900] It can't take a 75 mile an hour wind.
[01:38:40.900 --> 01:38:41.900] Well, chrome will rust.
[01:38:41.900 --> 01:38:42.900] No.
[01:38:42.900 --> 01:38:43.900] No, chrome.
[01:38:43.900 --> 01:38:44.900] It was too expensive.
[01:38:44.900 --> 01:38:45.900] If it gets chipped, dude.
[01:38:45.900 --> 01:38:46.900] If it gets chipped, yeah.
[01:38:46.900 --> 01:38:47.900] Is it too expensive?
[01:38:47.900 --> 01:38:48.900] No.
[01:38:48.900 --> 01:38:54.140] It was cheap, quick, easy to build, and quick to build.
[01:38:54.140 --> 01:38:55.180] It was too round.
[01:38:55.180 --> 01:38:56.180] Thank you, Lou.
[01:38:56.180 --> 01:38:57.180] Wow, I was joking.
[01:38:57.180 --> 01:39:00.980] They couldn't find furniture that would fit well with the round design.
[01:39:00.980 --> 01:39:01.980] Oh, my God.
[01:39:01.980 --> 01:39:05.420] But also, it just- How do you hang those window covers?
[01:39:05.420 --> 01:39:06.420] Yeah.
[01:39:06.420 --> 01:39:07.420] Right.
[01:39:07.420 --> 01:39:08.420] You'd need a car.
[01:39:08.420 --> 01:39:09.420] How do you hang a picture on the wall?
[01:39:09.420 --> 01:39:11.900] And also, it was just too small.
[01:39:11.900 --> 01:39:16.620] The bathrooms were teeny, teeny tiny, and the bedrooms, there was two very small bedrooms.
[01:39:16.620 --> 01:39:18.340] So people just thought it was too small.
[01:39:18.340 --> 01:39:23.740] The shape was too inconvenient to adapt to, and so it never took off for those reasons.
[01:39:23.740 --> 01:39:29.480] But yeah, he designed it to be an eco-friendly prefab, easy to build home.
[01:39:29.480 --> 01:39:33.380] And so when I was coming up with the idea of this as the fiction, I was like, okay,
[01:39:33.380 --> 01:39:37.540] I'll just have to come up with something else he made it out of that's not true.
[01:39:37.540 --> 01:39:44.780] And it took me like seven tries to find something that doesn't exist as an actual house.
[01:39:44.780 --> 01:39:49.900] So people build houses out of cardboard, but of course, it's like specially engineered
[01:39:49.900 --> 01:39:52.180] to be as strong as wood.
[01:39:52.180 --> 01:39:58.500] Cardboard shells, recycled glass bottles, sea shells.
[01:39:58.500 --> 01:40:02.220] I had to go through all of these before I wound up, I couldn't find anyone making houses
[01:40:02.220 --> 01:40:03.220] out of bones.
[01:40:03.220 --> 01:40:05.940] So I figured probably because of the creep factor.
[01:40:05.940 --> 01:40:09.860] Bone is actually a good, strong, lightweight material and relatively-
[01:40:09.860 --> 01:40:11.540] Seemed plausible.
[01:40:11.540 --> 01:40:12.660] And not that combustible.
[01:40:12.660 --> 01:40:13.660] So it's-
[01:40:13.660 --> 01:40:16.340] Yeah, I mean, if you turned it into like a pulp and then-
[01:40:16.340 --> 01:40:17.340] I'm sure you could.
[01:40:17.340 --> 01:40:18.340] I thought, yeah, you-
[01:40:18.340 --> 01:40:19.340] Not even a pulp.
[01:40:19.340 --> 01:40:20.340] Engineered cow bone, kind of.
[01:40:20.340 --> 01:40:22.540] You could make like a cement, grind it down and-
[01:40:22.540 --> 01:40:23.540] Yeah, probably something.
[01:40:23.540 --> 01:40:25.340] Plus you can suck the marrow out of it.
[01:40:25.340 --> 01:40:29.620] But anyway, it's funny how long it took me to come up with something that people hadn't
[01:40:29.620 --> 01:40:31.180] been making houses out of.
Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:40:32)
This job is a great scientific adventure. But it's also a great human adventure. Mankind has made giant steps forward. However, what we know is really very, very little compared to what we still have to know.
– Fabiola Gianotti, Italian experimental particle physicist
[01:40:31.180 --> 01:40:33.180] Okay, Evan, take us home with a quote.
[01:40:33.180 --> 01:40:39.180] This job is a great scientific adventure, but it's also a great human adventure.
[01:40:39.180 --> 01:40:42.340] Mankind has made giant steps forward.
[01:40:42.340 --> 01:40:49.460] However, what we know is really very, very little compared to what we still have to know.
[01:40:49.460 --> 01:40:53.300] Fabiola Gionatti, Higgs boson physicist.
[01:40:53.300 --> 01:40:54.300] Great name.
[01:40:54.300 --> 01:40:55.300] Fabiola Gionatti.
[01:40:55.300 --> 01:40:56.300] Yeah, Fabiola.
[01:40:56.300 --> 01:40:57.300] That's a good quote.
[01:40:57.300 --> 01:40:58.300] Yeah.
[01:40:58.300 --> 01:41:00.700] It's always important to remember that what we don't know is still vastly outweighed.
[01:41:00.700 --> 01:41:01.700] Absolutely.
[01:41:01.700 --> 01:41:02.700] That's right.
[01:41:02.700 --> 01:41:05.820] And the more you know, the more you realize, oh man, we know even less than we thought
[01:41:05.820 --> 01:41:06.820] a little while ago.
[01:41:06.820 --> 01:41:07.820] The more we discover, the less we know.
[01:41:07.820 --> 01:41:12.220] I think at this point in my life, I feel like because of my awareness of what I don't know,
[01:41:12.220 --> 01:41:14.580] I feel like I know the least out of any point in my life.
[01:41:14.580 --> 01:41:15.580] It's in a weird way.
[01:41:15.580 --> 01:41:16.580] That's funny.
[01:41:16.580 --> 01:41:18.020] When I was in my 20s, I felt like I knew everything.
[01:41:18.020 --> 01:41:19.020] Yeah.
[01:41:19.020 --> 01:41:20.860] The horizon has expanded.
[01:41:20.860 --> 01:41:21.860] It's the known unknowns.
[01:41:21.860 --> 01:41:22.860] Yeah.
[01:41:22.860 --> 01:41:23.860] There's greater known unknowns.
Signoff/Announcements
[01:41:23.860 --> 01:41:24.860] All right.
[01:41:24.860 --> 01:41:27.100] So that ends this episode.
[01:41:27.100 --> 01:41:31.300] Thank you for joining us for this live streaming episode of the SGU.
[01:41:31.300 --> 01:41:32.860] As always, thank you guys for joining me.
[01:41:32.860 --> 01:41:33.860] Sure, man.
[01:41:33.860 --> 01:41:34.860] Steve, we should do it again.
[01:41:34.860 --> 01:41:35.860] We should do it again.
[01:41:35.860 --> 01:41:36.860] Soon.
[01:41:36.860 --> 01:41:37.860] In five minutes.
S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.
S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.
Today I Learned
- Fact/Description, possibly with an article reference[9]
- Fact/Description
- Fact/Description
Notes
References
- ↑ Popular Mechanics: NASA's Nuclear Thermal Engine Is a Blast From the Cold War Past
- ↑ Ars Technica: How sustainable are fake meats?
- ↑ Phys.org: Why go back to the Moon?
- ↑ Museum of Failure: Sound Burger – portable vinyl player
- ↑ Museum of Failure: Itera – the plastic bicycle
- ↑ Wikipedia: Dymaxion house
- ↑ British Pathé: Austria: Inventor Shows Robot "Servants"
- ↑ Cybernetic Zoo: 1957-73 – "MM6", "MM7 SELEKTOR" & "MM8 CONTINA" SELEKTOR – CLAUS SCHOLZ (AUSTRIAN)
- ↑ [url_for_TIL publication: title]
Vocabulary
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