SGU Episode 406
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| SGU Episode 359 |
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| 34th May 2012 |
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| Skeptical Rogues |
| S: Steven Novella |
B: Bob Novella |
R: Rebecca Watson |
J: Jay Novella |
E: Evan Bernstein |
| Quote of the Week |
Education is the path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty. |
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| Forum Discussion |
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Introduction
You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.
S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Tuesday, April 24, 2013, and this is your host, Steven Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella,
B: Hey, everybody.
S: Rebecca Watson,
R: Hello, everyone.
S: Jay Novella,
J: Hey, guys.
S: and Evan Bernstein.
E: Mach-cho maroon.
S: Thank you, Evan.
J: That sounds very Game of Thrones-y.
E: It's the first words I think I've ever spoken in Dothraki.
J: And what does it mean?
R: It means "Die, scum!" (laughter) (garbled comments)
S: It means: "Your horse is ugly."
J: Does it mean Hello?
R: It means hello.
E: Yes. It's the long way of saying "hello."
S: Or as close as you get to it in Dothraki.
J: Game of Thrones is kicking ass. The latest episode was awesome.
B: Yeah.
J: And that has nothing to do with science.
E: Everything to do with pop culture.
S: That's right.
This Day in Skepticism (1:02)
April 27, 1791: Birth of Samuel Morse
R: But you know what does have to do, slightly, with science is that today, April 27, is the birthday of Samuel Morse, who was born in 1791.
E: Oh, happy birthday.
B: Wait. I missed that segue. What's, how did you do that? Oh, never mind. Go ahead. (laughter)
R: You know, it was just so smooth, you missed it. Yeah, so, Samuel Morse, most people know as the inventor, or co-inventor, of Morse code. I found it really interesting, I was reading up on him, and apparently he got interested in telegraph systems because he was far away from his wife when she took ill, and he got a telegram saying that she was basically on her death bed. And by the time he was able to rush to see her, she was already dead and buried. And he was so angry about it
E: Sad.
R: that he gave up painting. He had been a painter. And he dedicated his life to finding a better way to communicate over long distances. So, yeah, a tragedy, but it was positive results for humanity.
J: You know what he said when he got there and they said "Your wife is dead."? He said, "She's dit dit dit dit dit dit dit dit dit dit dit dead?"
B: Oh, my, God. (groans and laughter)
S: That was bad.
E: Wow.
J: Guys, guys, come on.
B: Please edit that out, Steve. (laughter continues) Imagine how awesome that was back then when you realize that, holy crap, we can communicate so fast over hundreds, thousands, of miles. It must have been like pure science fiction to them.
S: Yeah, so, I learned some interesting things about Samuel Morse. First of all, he graduated from Yale. So he's a Yale alum. Supported himself as a painter, as Rebecca said. He didn't just invent, actually co-invent, with Alfred Vail, Morse code. He actually developed the electrical telegraph. And he, one of the critical inventions for that was the relay. He invented the relay. You guys know how that works?
J: Sure.
S: Hit me.
J: Oh, the re--, you mean the thing that boosts the signal so it can go over long distances.
S: Yeah. So, 'cause the wires back then were so crappy, one signal could really only go not even a mile. It couldn't go very far at all. So he figured out a way of putting in a relay where the signal hits a relay circuit which essentially, a very weak signal, you have a very sensitive circuit, so that even a weak signal comes in, and it activates a magnet, which triggers an arm, which creates a new click, which then can go the next distance to the next relay. So very simple, very basic, but that was a critical invention to the functioning of the
B: Oh, yeah.
S: over long distances.
B: They had to set those up every mile? Wow, that's a lot.
S: Yeah, something like that, yeah.
B: Initially, at least.
E: It's like fiber optic today; they have relay stations.
S: Do you guys know what the first message sent across one of those telegraphs was?
J: Yes.
B: I used to know it.
J: "Send more Chuck Berry."
R: Well, I only know because I read it like an hour ago.
J: Say it with authority.
R: I know exactly what it was, Steve. It was "A patient waiter is no loser."
S: Right. Which is interesting because it's not . . .
B: That's kinda lame.
S: Yeah. It's kinda lame.
R: Yeah.
S: But his father was
R: It's no "What hath God wrought?"
S: Yeah, "what hath God wrought?"
E: Or "Watson, come here, I want you.
S: That's what he said when he was transmitting from the Supreme Court chamber.
E: Right.
S: His father was a Calvinist preacher, so it's kind of, I guess, has the moralistic tone with which he was raised. His father was Jedidiah Morse. You gotta love that name, Jedidiah. Not many Jedidiahs around today.
B: No.
S: And Morse also was pro-slavery. And was active in resisting both Catholics and immigrants.
E: Um hm.
J: When you say "resisting," what do you mean "resist"?
S: He was, he actively campaigned against immigrants and Catholics.
R: Horrible person
J: Wow.
R: who did some good stuff.
J: I didn't know that.
B: I like him a little less now.
S: He was a product of his time and his father.
B: True.
S: Gotta cut him a little bit of slack.
R: I don't know, there were plenty of people of his time who were vehemently anti-slavery.
S: Um hm. I agree, I just said "a little bit." It's hard to look back 200 years and be too heavily moralizing.
R: Eh. I find it easy. (laughter)
S: Are you guys enjoying the first real days of spring that we've had so far?
J: Awesome.
B: Oh, I'm lovin' it. 'Bout time.
E: Yeah, this 42 degree weather is wonderful.
S: Well, hey, we had such a long winter; you're right, it's still a little on the cold side. Today there were all these various unmistakable signs of spring, sort of like all at once. So, first, the forsythia is in full bloom. Second, bluebirds have moved into our bluebird house. They're gonna make little baby bluebirds.
R: How do the bluebirds know that the bluebird house is for them?
S: That's a really good question.
E: They use the GPS.
J: They can fit in it.
R: There's a sign.
S: So a bluebird house has an opening of a certain size. But honestly, it's more about positioning. You need to place it three to five feet above the ground, in an open area, with nothing obscuring the ground beneath it. So, bluebirds wanna make sure they can see snakes and other things coming. So if you do that, if you hang it at the right height in a sort of openish area, bluebirds will move into it. I mean it's,
R: And no other bird?
S: Well, hang on. The other bird that will tend to steal a bluebird house from the bluebird is the house sparrow. We have plenty of house sparrows, but bluebirds always seem to move into our bluebird houses. So it's remarkably consistent.
J: Rebecca, what do you think, like you have, the pair of bluebirds are flying around and the wife bluebird goes "What about this one, honey?" And the husband's like "Nope, that's only two feet off the gound."
R: Yeah, I mean they definitely have like a measuring tape and a list of wants.
S: It works, it absolutely works.
R: Good view of snakes, in-ground pool.
B: My favorite sign of spring is that the White Walkers are retreating back north.
S: Yup. (laughter and garbled comments) Nice call-back. The robins are more visible. As we learned previously they don't actually; they do migrate, but there are robins in the winter but they stay more in the forest. But the robins that are here come out and are more visible in the spring. And I actually grilled steaks on the grill on my deck today, for dinner.
E: Delicious.
R: Man, you went all out.
S: Yeah. And, the single most profound marker that spring is here was
E: Allergies.
S: No. I don't have allergies luckily. Was, the ice cream truck came around.
R: You have an ice cream truck?
S: Yup. My daughters go insane. You know, they see the ice cream truck and they just go crazy.
E: Come on, you go a little crazy, too. Admit it.
J: Does the guy play music, Steve, or
S: Of course.
J: Does he ring the bell, what is it?
S: Of course, you've got the music and the bell and they just lose their minds.
R: We never had an ice cream truck when I was a kid; it was too rural.
B: We did.
S: Oh, yeah, we did.
B: Jay, you were insane. I have a distinct memory of you, one night, sitting at the end of our driveway. You were a little shit, probably six or seven, crying your eyes out because the ice cream man didn't come, or you missed him, or something, and you were just like bawling 'cause you wanted your ice cream, and you missed it. (laughter)
J: I never forgave that guy, either.
E: That bastard.
News Items
Mars One (9:01)
S: All right, well let's move on. Bob, you're gonna tell us about (imitating Schwarzenegger) "Get your ass to Mars." (laughter)
B: You just totally took my opening line. Thank you so much.
S: Bob, you gotta warn me if you're gonna do that.
B: Whatever.
S: It was a bit obvious
B: I know, but I added a little flourish at the end. I said "Get your ass to Mars and never come back." Are you guys ready for an out-of-this-world reality TV show? I can't believe they're doing this. The company Mars One is planning on making a reality show that showcases the entire process of selecting and training astronauts, their trip to Mars, and the rest of their lives living on Mars. And like we said, it's a one-way trip. That's the real kicker that everybody's talking about. Would you guys do that? Would you guys actually consider that? Or would you want to hear the details first?
R: No.
E: I don't think so.
R: I don't need the details. No. I don't wanna go on a reality show so people can watch me die in space. No. Thank you.
(speaking simultaneously – inaudible)
B: --when I'm 70 or 80, or what the hell. So, the first question is why are you doing a one-way trip? There's two good reasons. The scientists feel that it's feasible to send people to Mars pretty much now, but the tech just doesn't seem to exist to bring them back right now. I kind of thought that was a weird reason because even if we don't have it now, surely it'll exist at some point. And if we put resources into it it wouldn't take that long. I think one of the reasons that they're doing this is that it's a real attention grabber. Headlines.
S: The think is though, what do you do, when to get to Mars, you find out that you don't like it there.
B: Well, yeah, you're done. Game over.
R: You'd kill yourself.
E: You suck it, basically.
B: Yeah, it'll make for a good episode. They're already talking about how they'll have a crematorium because people will of course die. But another good reason, probably the best reason that they're not gonna come back,
E: What if you're the last one to die, though? How're you gonna get in that crematorium?
B: Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about it. So the best reason though why they're not coming back is that, imagine seven or eight months in space; astronauts, as we know, lose muscle mass, they lose bone mass; it's really, really horrific on the body. Even if you're exercising all the time, there's a huge hit that you take; and then time that you spend in Mars' weaker gravitational field, that's not gonna help much either. And scientists feel that readjusting to Earth's gravity after so much time, it's pretty much impossible, with today's technology anyway. After all that time, you're just not coming back. That's a really, really good reason.
J: That sounds odd to me, Bob. What about people that suffer phenomenal injuries and have to be bedridden for six months or a year. You can't grow back the tissue that you lost, and the bone mass?
B: Yeah, it's weird. It's not like if you become paralyzed, where your muscles just turn to mush and it's completely and utterly irrevocable.. .
S: But people who are bedridden lose a lot of muscle mass. You could lose one to three percent of your muscle mass per day if you're sick and in the hospital and completely immobile. Especially for older people. So that's why they have weeks and months, sometimes, of rehab, just to recover from the debility that results, Jay.
B: Yeah, Jay, and that's also one of the big down sides to yo-yo weight loss, where you lose a lot of weight and inevitably a lot of muscle weight and then you gain back a lot of fat. At the end of the cycle you have much less muscle than you had, and that's a hit that your body could take for the rest of its life, 'cause it's just so hard to get back all that muscle that you lost. It's really bad. And that's a really good reason why once you're there you're gonna be committed. The gravitational pull on Mars is about 38% of Earth's. So that's really, really low. I mean things, it'd be easy to get around and things would be light and that's all great, but, man, your muscles just say we don't need all of this muscle, let's get rid of it. I'm very curious how walking will be accomplished on Mars. How similar to moon-walking will it be? Or will it be a fusion between the moon-hopping and the Earth-walking? I'd be curious to see that.
J: Bob, what's their budget? How could they possibly afford to do this?
B: That's actually one of the key problems, Jay, is funding. They figure it's gonna cost about six billion U.S. dollars to get there, just for the first group.
S: How many bit coins is it gonna cost? (laughter)
E: Seven.
R: Oh, you know, if they send a big-time movie star, if they send like Julia Roberts, that should secure them at least one billion from the foreign markets.
J: Why, 'cause they wanna get rid of her? (laughter)
R: It's a movie-making joke. You cast the right people, you get the funding. That's the way it works, in Hollywood.
S: So who should we send to Mars on a one-way trip?
B: Justin Bieber! (laughter)
E: Wow, Bob.
R: What did Justin Bieber ever do to you?
B: Nothing, I just felt like it.
J: It's not really him, it's more his haircut.
S: Could we just send his haircut?
J: So, look, there's a lot of things about this that I just don't have enough information on, or they're just not making enough sense. First of all, how do you get billions of dollars for a TV show? Second of all, who's developing the technology? How are they gonna live an extended period of time on a planet where they can't manufacture things, grow food, what's up?
B: Let me go through some of this, then, Jay. What they're gonna need, more than a few astronauts: they're talking about 24 astronauts. So the idea is they're gonna have six groups of four astronauts, and every two years four astronauts are gonna be sent there, with the first one going in 2022. The selection process will be finalized in 2015; so it's only a couple years away. Then they're gonna go through seven years of training. And, think about it though, seven years of a reality show of astronauts training. That's gonna get so boring. There's no way they're gonna maintain a TV show for that long.
S: I don't know, Bob. I mean, ghost hunter shows have lasted for that long.
R: Yeah, The Real World has been going on for that long.
B: I guess.
R: It's crap, but people still watch it, I guess.
B: Well, if they do a good job, they can make it interesting. But seven years of training?
S: What they need to do is they need to vote people off the planet. (laughter)
B: Well actually, what they're gonna, that's close, Steve. What they're gonna do, in true reality show style, is they're gonna vote four astronauts, the first four to go, who of course will be the most famous. Who doesn't wanna be the first ones to go? Except me.
R: Anyone with a brain, doesn't wanna be the first to go.
B: Jay, you mentioned technology. Space X, they're gonna work with Space X. And the idea is to use a slightly enlarged version of the Dragon capsule to get them there. And
R: I never noticed before how much "Space X" sounds like "space sex." Because that was very confusing when you first said it.
S: Space sex?
R: Um hm.
B: I never thought of that. Thank you. They're gonna use those really cool retro propulsion rockets to land it because of course parachutes aren't gonna cut it. Jay, to survive, they're gonna have solar panels, of course, for energy. They're gonna recycle and extract water from the soil if it's there, if they can actually find some. And food, and they're gonna grow their own food. That's another technology that I don't know how they're pull that off. And then of course, every two years they'll get a nice resupply of their Reese's Peanut Butter Cups from Earth when the next group arrives. But as you can imagine, right, there's gonna be tons of problems. One of them is the solar wind. Mars just does not have, a very thin atmosphere. It's about a hundredth, less than a hundredth the density of Earth's atmosphere. It's almost a friggin' vacuum. And Mars doesn't have a magnetosphere. I mean, damn.
J: It doesn't seem like the survival of these people is going to be high. It's scaring me.
S: They are gonna send supplies ahead of the first astronauts. So there should be material and food and everything they'll need there to get going.
B; Well, they want to send a series of rovers to go there. And that's also one of the reasons why I'm pessimistic. They want to send a bunch of rovers. I mean, are they even working on these rovers? I mean, you know how long it takes to design and develop and test all that. I'm not even sure where they even are with that preliminary step right there. And so it's not just a magnetosphere that's not there, which is basically a shield for the solar wind and cosmic ray particles. It really is why there's lots of life on the surface of the planet.
S: Their habitat will basically have to be under ground.
B: yeah, they're gonna have to . . . maybe that's one of the things these rovers can do is help make these pits for their habitat. So if they're gonna have to be under many feet of dirt, then they'll be okay. But there's also no liquid water, really. None that they could really tap into that we've found. And then the radiation, not just the radiation on the planet, but the trip radiation, and we've talked about this on the show. It's nasty. Just going there, you've got these energetic particles in the solar wind; you've got cosmic rays. I mean, they won't kill you outright, necessarily, but they will greatly increase your chances of getting cancer. And the question is . . .
R: These people are not gonna live long enough to get cancer. They don't need to worry about that.
B: I guess.
R: Like if they die of cancer, it'll be the greatest thing that ever happened to them.
J: You know, there's social implications here, as well. What about laws?
S: They're on their own. The whole idea is they can create their own civilization.
E: The wild west. That's great. What if one of them goes nuts and starts to break down?
S: Well they'll have seven years vet these people. They're gonna be . . . so part of the training . . . first of all, they're gonna be trained in emergency medicine, dentistry, engineering, all the skills they're gonna need to do everything they need on their own and they're gonna also spend extended periods of time in simulated Martian habitats, and have simulated emergencies. So, that's seven years of vetting for these people.
E: What if these people don't pan out in year three or four, what . . . you're gonna have to have teams of people going through this process. I mean, imagine the hundreds of people that they're gonna have to select from.
B: Yeah. I would think they're gonna have maybe one or two backups. You know, you're talking fifty, sixty, seventy people, if they go that route, which isn't, I mean $6 billion will go a long way for that kind of stuff. NASA astronaut Stan Love had a great description of this. He, I think he described it really well. He just happened to come back from Antarctica, and he says "That place is a picnic compared to Mars." He says it's full of water, you can go outside and breathe the air. It's paradise compared to Mars, and yet nobody has moved there permanently. And you know, as nasty as that place is, Mars is ten hundred times worse and people are gonna spend the rest of their lives there. It's just crazy.
R: What happens when the show is cancelled?
E: That's a good point.
R: You know, ratings are down, they need that time slot for something else.
S: I think, let me go against the grain and say that I think this is a wonderful idea.
B: No. You're full of shit. No. All right, I love the idea of a community off the Earth, and Stephen Hawking would really agree with us on that. But go to the moon first! It's only three days away. Vet all the technology and develop it on the moon. If there's a huge disaster, you can be there in mere days, rather than months and a billion dollars later.
R: Good point.
S: All right, that's a really good point.
B: Moon Base Alpha first, then Mars.
J: Well, wait, Bob. That might be part of their plan, though. As Rebecca says, let's say the show gets cancelled. The show's gonna probably get cancelled right around when everyone's gonna die. Right?
E; That convenient.
S: Well the show may be cancelled before they even . . . It's gonna be seven years of reality TV before they even blast off for Mars. Remember. So, this is highly risky in multiple ways. This is gonna be very difficult to pull off. But you gotta give it to them for the vision here, of trying to . . . If they pull this off, then you really have to give it to them for being bold and the amount of dedication it's going to take to usher this project to completion is going to be amazing. So, they will have to capture the imagination of the world with this project. The people that they select are going to have a lot to do with this. And they have ten years to work out the technological limitations. It's not impossible, it's just gonna be really, really hard. But if they're serious about this, I think that . . . I'd love to see them try; I wish them well; I would love to see them succeed, as long as they appreciate that they're not going into this thinking this is gonna be an easy endeavor. As long as they appreciate all the many ways this can fail, and they are doing everything they possibly can to deal with all of those hurdles, then, let's see what they do.
R: Who's the "they" again? Who's actually doing this?
S: Mars One, I guess, is the organization.
B: Yeah, they're based out of Denmark.
J: Steve, I don't disagree with that at all. I see what you're saying, and I like the idea of all these billions of dollars that go into entertainment that is really, at the end of the day, it doesn't achieve things like technology and pushing the limits of man's fortitude . . .
S: You know what I think is likely to happen? If they get this off the ground, I think that they're going to have an interesting reality TV show that will be a dry run for a real colonization trip to either the moon or Mars. But they probably won't ever launch. If they do launch; if they're successful enough, in terms of raising money and keeping the whole project going to the point where they're ready to launch, that will be a huge success right there. Anything that happens after that, you know, I would still consider this to be a success. Of course it's high risk. They will have . . . basically like 2022 or 2023, they're gonna have to make a hard assessment of whether or not they actually have all the pieces in place to send people to Mars. Probably there's gonna be tons of delays and it will probably never happen. But . . .
B: Oh, 2022 or 3, I'd say 2018 they'd be like, shit, we're not gonna make this. And to me, that's my biggest beef with this is that 2022 just seems way too soon to pull this off. There's too many hurdles.
S: I like the idea that they're planning on using the Space X
B: Oh, absolutely.
S: So that may throw a lot of funding their way.
B: That would be great.
S: That would be a good consequence of all this.
J: It's a lot of money they have to get, and that's gonna be a huge hurdle for them.
B: I've got a quote on that as well. Dr. Chris Lintott, he's Oxford University, he thinks that it's technologically plausible, feasible. But in his mind funding is gonna be the biggest problem. He said "It's about having the political will and the financial muscle to make this happen. That's what nobody has been able to solve so far." So the undoing of this entire project might be just purely from funding, 'cause it's a lot of money. It's got a lot of sustained interest that you'd have to have for many, many years. And if you can pull that off, that might be the biggest hurdle of all.
S: Hopefully this is a story we'll be reporting on over the years. I hope it doesn't die in the crib. It'll be interesting.
B: And if anyone wants to register you have until August 31 of 2013, and they certainly have lots of volunteers. I've heard numbers over 40,000 requests already.
R: Oh, my god.
B: It'll cost you money, though. I think it's 38 bucks for the United States. But depending on what country you're in, the prices will vary. But yeah, lots of people are interested in it.
Bomb Detector Fraud (24:43)
TED and Chopra ()
- NeuroLogica Blog: Confusing Standards for Censorship – Chopra Edition
Creationism and Dinosaurs ()
Who's That Noisy? ()
Puzzle for last week
Questions and Emails ()
Question 1 ()
Bitcoin Follow Up Corrections and further analysis of Bitcoin
Science or Fiction ()
#1: Scientists have developed a vaccine that can reduce the risk of developing autism in high-risk infants by over 20%. Item #2: A study finds that medical interns spend only 12% of their time with patients, while spending 40% of their time at computers. Item #3: A new study finds that over 50% of products recalled by the FDA between 2004 and 2012 because they probably would "cause serious adverse health consequences or death" were dietary supplements.
Skeptical Quote of the Week ()
Education is the path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty.
Announcements ()
S: The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information on this and other episodes, please visit our website at theskepticsguide.org, where you will find the show notes as well as links to our blogs, videos, online forum, and other content. You can send us feedback or questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. Also, please consider supporting the SGU by visiting the store page on our website, where you will find merchandise, premium content, and subscription information. Our listeners are what make SGU possible.
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