SGU Episode 896

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SGU Episode 896
September 10th 2022
depiction of Chicxulub meteor
SGU 895                      SGU 897
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Quote of the Week
A good ghost story may hold entertainment and even cultural value, but the popular portrayal of pseudoscientific practices as science may be detracting from efforts to cultivate a scientifically literate public.
Micheal Knees, American engineering psychologist
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction, another Artemis launch scrubbed

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

[00:09.840 --> 00:13.440] Hello and welcome to the Skeptics Guide to the Universe. Today is Wednesday,

[00:13.440 --> 00:17.360] September 7th, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.

[00:17.360 --> 00:19.840] Joining me this week are Bob Novella. Hey, everybody.

[00:19.840 --> 00:21.760] Kara Santamaria. Howdy.

[00:21.760 --> 00:23.280] Jay Novella. Hey, guys.

[00:23.280 --> 00:26.400] And Evan Bernstein. Good evening, everyone.

[00:26.400 --> 00:32.400] So we had this scrubbing of the second launch date for the Artemis 1.

[00:32.400 --> 00:35.120] Why do they keep doing that to us? Frustrating.

[00:35.120 --> 00:39.280] Yeah, so, I mean, the first, you know, this was supposed to fly in 2017.

[00:39.280 --> 00:44.720] This is now a five-year rolling delay in terms of getting this thing off the ground.

[00:44.720 --> 00:49.200] But yeah, so on last Monday or Tuesday, I think it was Monday,

[00:49.200 --> 00:51.120] they were going to try to do a launch.

[00:51.120 --> 00:55.040] They had a temperature problem in the engines,

[00:55.040 --> 00:58.720] and then it turned out they couldn't fix it within the launch window,

[00:58.720 --> 01:01.440] so they had to scrub. Turned out it was a faulty sensor.

[01:01.440 --> 01:04.880] Everything was fine, but whatever, one faulty sensor scrubs a launch.

[01:05.760 --> 01:08.640] So they rescheduled it for Saturday, and then on Saturday,

[01:08.640 --> 01:10.400] they had actually a more serious problem.

[01:10.400 --> 01:12.640] I'm not sure why they didn't have the same problem on Monday.

[01:12.640 --> 01:16.800] They had a hydrogen leak from the liquid hydrogen gassing.

[01:16.800 --> 01:19.120] Now, this is a serious problem because...

[01:19.120 --> 01:21.600] Yeah. You don't f*** around with hydrogen, man.

[01:21.600 --> 01:26.560] If it gets too, if the percentage of hydrogen outside the tank gets too high,

[01:26.560 --> 01:29.520] there's a chance that it could explode, you know, when the ship takes off,

[01:29.520 --> 01:30.880] which would be bad, right?

[01:30.880 --> 01:33.840] You don't want the explosion to be happening outside of the tank.

[01:33.840 --> 01:35.920] Oh, what do they call that? There's a name for that.

[01:35.920 --> 01:37.120] Catastrophic failure?

[01:37.120 --> 01:37.760] No, no, no.

[01:37.760 --> 01:39.280] No, you're right, Bob. There is a name for that.

[01:40.240 --> 01:43.600] And it's hilarious. Explosive disassembly or something.

[01:43.600 --> 01:44.320] Yeah, okay.

[01:44.320 --> 01:46.560] That's so scary.

[01:46.560 --> 01:48.960] Let's disassemble it with explosives, yay.

[01:48.960 --> 01:52.640] So this is interesting. So they had to scrub that because they couldn't fix that in time.

[01:52.640 --> 01:54.160] They tried a couple of things to, like,

[01:54.160 --> 01:57.040] I'll change the temperature to get the seals to work, but it didn't work.

[01:57.040 --> 02:01.200] They could potentially fix this problem on the launch pad,

[02:01.200 --> 02:03.760] but by the time they could do that,

[02:03.760 --> 02:10.640] the batteries that are needed for the abort system to work would have to be recycled.

[02:10.640 --> 02:17.920] So they have to bring the ship back to the building just to swap out the abort batteries.

[02:17.920 --> 02:20.240] But of course, while it's there, they'll fix everything.

[02:20.240 --> 02:21.840] And they got to reset everything.

[02:21.840 --> 02:23.520] It's like outside the window.

[02:23.520 --> 02:26.880] So now it's like you're keeping all these plates spinning, you know?

[02:26.880 --> 02:29.360] And if you don't get it to fly within a certain amount of time,

[02:29.360 --> 02:32.960] you got to bring it back and reset everything, you know, and then try again.

[02:32.960 --> 02:36.800] So now the earliest, they haven't set a new launch date yet as this recording,

[02:36.800 --> 02:38.560] but the earliest would be mid-October.

[02:38.560 --> 02:39.600] It would be like six weeks.

[02:39.600 --> 02:41.360] October 2023.

[02:41.360 --> 02:42.480] Yeah, 2022.

[02:42.480 --> 02:43.680] Oh, okay.

[02:43.680 --> 02:48.160] We did talk about it briefly during the live show, Jane.

[02:48.160 --> 02:51.440] You brought up the fact that you've heard some criticism.

[02:51.440 --> 02:54.160] So I did a deeper dive on it because I've heard some criticism too,

[02:54.160 --> 02:55.520] and I wanted to know where that was.

[02:55.520 --> 02:59.440] The bottom line is that it's just really expensive, you know?

[02:59.440 --> 03:04.160] They're spending, you know, $150 billion to get this thing up.

[03:04.160 --> 03:11.680] It's going to cost a billion dollars or $2 billion a launch just for the launch fees itself.

[03:11.680 --> 03:14.000] If you amortize the development cost,

[03:14.000 --> 03:17.440] it's going to be between four and five billion dollars per launch,

[03:18.400 --> 03:22.720] and they only have the infrastructure to launch one a year.

[03:22.720 --> 03:24.080] That's all we're going to get out of it.

[03:24.080 --> 03:26.080] One launch a year, and at the end of the day,

[03:26.080 --> 03:29.840] it's probably going to be at like four to five billion dollars per launch.

[03:29.840 --> 03:32.160] So that's mainly where the criticism is coming from.

[03:32.160 --> 03:32.880] It's expensive.

[03:33.520 --> 03:37.120] It's not really going to be able to do that many launches.

[03:37.120 --> 03:40.480] But you got to keep in mind that you go back to 2011

[03:40.480 --> 03:42.960] when they canceled the Constellation program,

[03:42.960 --> 03:47.360] which is the predecessor to the Space Launch System, the SLS,

[03:47.360 --> 03:51.280] and also that was the end of the life of the space shuttle.

[03:51.280 --> 03:54.640] So we had no, basically, no rockets to go up.

[03:54.640 --> 04:00.160] So at that time, the Obama administration basically made a bargain with NASA.

[04:00.160 --> 04:06.480] They said, okay, we will fund the SLS program for deep space,

[04:06.480 --> 04:10.800] but you are going to contract out low Earth orbit to private industry.

[04:10.800 --> 04:11.680] So that's what they did.

[04:12.480 --> 04:15.920] And that's where SpaceX comes from and like Blue Origin, all these companies.

[04:15.920 --> 04:17.040] So that worked out really well.

[04:17.040 --> 04:21.120] The low Earth orbit, you know, and SpaceX worked out tremendously well,

[04:21.120 --> 04:25.440] but they're kind of hobbled with this really over budget, delayed,

[04:25.440 --> 04:29.680] really expensive SLS, you know, heavy launch system.

[04:30.400 --> 04:34.400] And, you know, now looking back 11 years later,

[04:34.400 --> 04:37.360] it's like, you know, there's nothing innovative about it.

[04:37.360 --> 04:45.040] It's not reusable, you know, and the SpaceX is basically completely leapfrogged over it.

[04:45.040 --> 04:47.600] So I think that's where a lot of the criticism comes from.

[04:47.600 --> 04:50.560] But still, here we are, you know, it's going to get us to the moon.

[04:50.560 --> 04:53.760] You also have to keep in mind that at the other end of the spectrum,

[04:54.400 --> 04:56.800] the Artemis program, not the SLS,

[04:56.800 --> 05:00.640] but the Artemis program was originally planned for 2028.

[05:00.640 --> 05:04.720] Well, to the moon, right, to be back on the moon in 2028.

[05:04.720 --> 05:08.160] That's Artemis mission, not the SLS system, right?

[05:08.160 --> 05:09.280] So not the rocket.

[05:09.280 --> 05:15.520] But the Artemis mission was moved up from 2028 to 2024 by the Trump administration.

[05:15.520 --> 05:18.400] And then it's now pushed back to 2025.

[05:18.400 --> 05:20.880] That's still three years ahead of schedule.

[05:20.880 --> 05:22.080] Of original schedule, yes.

[05:22.080 --> 05:23.120] Original schedule.

[05:23.120 --> 05:26.320] And nobody ever thought that the 2024 thing was realistic.

[05:26.320 --> 05:28.640] NASA was like, this is just not going to be like, OK, sure, right.

[05:28.640 --> 05:32.560] But they knew politically it sounded good, but never going to happen.

[05:32.560 --> 05:35.120] So, all right, we're still on track to get back to the moon

[05:35.120 --> 05:36.720] by the middle of this decade.

[05:36.720 --> 05:39.360] And hopefully, you know, the SLS will work out.

[05:39.360 --> 05:40.720] Artemis will launch.

[05:40.720 --> 05:43.760] It's obviously I'd rather have them scrub for six weeks

[05:43.760 --> 05:45.200] and have the thing blow up on the pad.

[05:45.200 --> 05:46.800] That would be a disaster.

[05:46.800 --> 05:47.840] My gosh.

[05:47.840 --> 05:51.760] What I do think is that NASA should already be planning

[05:51.760 --> 05:53.760] the successor of the SLS, though.

[05:54.960 --> 05:55.200] Right.

[05:55.200 --> 05:55.920] I mean, they shouldn't.

[05:55.920 --> 05:59.040] Well, the SLS is expensive to fly.

[05:59.040 --> 06:01.600] And it's like, you know, it's not reusable.

[06:01.600 --> 06:03.440] It's not efficient or whatever.

[06:04.000 --> 06:06.000] They should probably just contract out, you know,

[06:06.000 --> 06:09.360] to the private space industry now to develop the next thing

[06:09.360 --> 06:12.320] that's going to be able to get to the moon and to Mars

[06:12.960 --> 06:14.720] and not try to do it themselves.

[06:14.720 --> 06:15.440] You know what I mean?

[06:16.000 --> 06:16.560] Yeah.

[06:16.560 --> 06:19.760] Yeah, I mean, that's a really hard thing to predict, Steve.

[06:19.760 --> 06:22.800] You know, first of all, we don't know how well the SLS is going to work.

[06:22.800 --> 06:26.640] It seems like private industry is going to work out better

[06:26.640 --> 06:28.880] than NASA owning their own rockets at this point.

[06:28.880 --> 06:29.920] Don't you agree?

[06:29.920 --> 06:32.160] I mean, for low Earth orbit, it's worked out really well.

[06:32.800 --> 06:34.720] You know, that was sort of the division of labor.

[06:34.720 --> 06:37.120] They would let private industry handle low Earth orbit

[06:37.120 --> 06:39.040] and then NASA will do deep space, right?

[06:39.040 --> 06:40.720] Go back to the moon and then eventually Mars.

[06:41.280 --> 06:45.360] Orion, which is NASA's capsule, that is the only spaceship

[06:45.360 --> 06:47.760] that can get to the, you know, to the moon now, right?

[06:47.760 --> 06:49.120] That can do deep space missions.

[06:49.120 --> 06:51.680] It's rated for 21 days.

[06:51.680 --> 06:54.240] It's long enough to get to the moon and back, you know what I mean?

[06:54.240 --> 06:56.480] So the Dragon module can't do it?

[06:56.480 --> 06:59.360] Well, according to NASA, it's the only one that's rated for,

[06:59.360 --> 07:00.720] like, moon missions at this point.

[07:00.720 --> 07:05.200] So they would, not that you, you know, I'm sure you could get the Dragon capsule

[07:05.200 --> 07:09.280] or a version of it to the point where it would be rated for deep space,

[07:09.280 --> 07:10.480] but it isn't right now.

[07:11.200 --> 07:15.040] But again, they gave the contract to SpaceX, remember, for the lunar lander

[07:15.040 --> 07:20.240] and Musk wants to convert the Starship into a lunar lander.

[07:20.240 --> 07:22.240] Yeah, that's still on.

[07:22.240 --> 07:23.760] Which is, like, weird in a way.

[07:24.640 --> 07:28.080] Would that ship, Steve, leave from Earth or would it stay?

[07:28.080 --> 07:29.120] Well, it'd have to, right?

[07:29.120 --> 07:31.680] We're not going to build it on Earth, send it to the moon,

[07:31.680 --> 07:34.560] and then it's going to land on, that's the ship that's going to land on the moon.

[07:34.560 --> 07:36.560] But, you know, I think we talked about it at the time,

[07:36.560 --> 07:39.360] it's like, yeah, but it's going all the way to the moon.

[07:39.360 --> 07:41.760] Why don't you just make that your moon ship, you know what I mean?

[07:41.760 --> 07:46.800] Like, why are you going to take the SLS to the moon, then hop on over into the Starship

[07:46.800 --> 07:49.120] to go down, to land down on the moon?

[07:49.120 --> 07:49.680] I don't know.

[07:49.680 --> 07:51.680] I don't know exactly how that's going to work.

[07:51.680 --> 07:56.320] So, okay, so it is that way, that ship is going to basically ferry people

[07:56.320 --> 08:00.400] from low moon orbit to the surface.

[08:00.400 --> 08:01.440] Yes, that's right.

[08:01.440 --> 08:04.480] And it stays out there and they just refuel it and keep reusing it.

[08:04.480 --> 08:05.520] I guess so.

[08:05.520 --> 08:08.560] Steve, I'm hoping that the next thing that will be developed

[08:08.560 --> 08:14.720] will be a deep space nuclear rocket, because they're developing nuclear rockets for cislunar.

[08:14.720 --> 08:17.920] Now, they won't be really rated for beyond cislunar, right?

[08:17.920 --> 08:20.960] They really won't be designed to go beyond the moon.

[08:20.960 --> 08:25.680] But, and this is why NASA is working with them on this, once they have it,

[08:25.680 --> 08:29.040] then the homework, you know, the foundational homework will be done,

[08:29.040 --> 08:32.880] and then NASA could take that and then extend it and then make it,

[08:32.880 --> 08:34.640] you know, for a much deeper space.

[08:34.640 --> 08:36.320] So that's my hope.

[08:36.320 --> 08:40.400] That's my hope. The question is, is it going to be the next gen deep space,

[08:40.400 --> 08:41.920] or is it going to be the one after that?

[08:42.560 --> 08:48.560] Well, maybe just like let private companies handle just the heavy lift rockets

[08:48.560 --> 08:49.600] that get you to the moon.

[08:50.240 --> 08:54.560] And NASA just completely focuses on developing nuclear rockets.

[08:54.560 --> 08:57.120] Yeah, shit man, I'd be, I'm all for that.

[08:57.120 --> 08:58.400] Because that's the next thing we need.

[08:58.400 --> 09:01.680] And chemical rockets are just so inefficient, you know,

[09:01.680 --> 09:04.560] like it's just not the way to get to Mars and back.

[09:04.560 --> 09:11.760] No, anything beyond the moon, and chemical rockets are just going to be marginalized.

[09:11.760 --> 09:14.080] I mean, of course, now I'm thinking much deeper into the future,

[09:14.080 --> 09:16.880] but as we, as the decades and centuries accrue,

[09:17.760 --> 09:21.360] chemical is really going to be just like maybe for Earth launch.

[09:21.360 --> 09:22.160] And that's it.

[09:22.160 --> 09:25.120] Getting out of Earth's gravity well, that's pretty much going to be it.

[09:25.120 --> 09:28.640] Right. But that's, you know, who knows how long that's going to take,

[09:29.600 --> 09:32.880] you know, when chemical no longer has any role in deep space,

[09:32.880 --> 09:35.600] because, you know, long distance rocket equation says,

[09:35.600 --> 09:37.360] screw you chemical rockets.

[09:37.360 --> 09:38.080] Yeah.

[09:38.080 --> 09:38.640] Yeah.

[09:38.640 --> 09:40.720] And then, and then eventually fusion.

[09:40.720 --> 09:44.480] Once we get to fusion, then we're, that's the, that's the game.

[09:44.480 --> 09:45.440] Started man, that's good.

[09:45.440 --> 09:45.920] Yeah.

[09:45.920 --> 09:46.800] And what's interesting is-

[09:46.800 --> 09:49.200] Especially the hydrogen proton proton fusion engine.

[09:49.200 --> 09:54.640] Once we develop fusion engines, that's going to be our engines forever.

[09:54.640 --> 10:00.080] Like there's the probability that anything will replace it is so remote.

[10:00.080 --> 10:05.200] Like we don't know if it will ever happen and if it does, it will be in the distant far future.

[10:05.200 --> 10:05.600] Right.

[10:05.600 --> 10:08.560] So that's the brass ring right there.

[10:08.560 --> 10:11.360] Well, for reaction rockets, yes.

[10:11.360 --> 10:16.080] I think that's going to be it for quite, for potentially centuries.

[10:16.080 --> 10:18.560] And you could do an amazing amount of things-

[10:18.560 --> 10:19.520] I think thousands of years.

[10:19.520 --> 10:21.920] With, with, that's silly.

[10:21.920 --> 10:22.960] Technically centuries too.

[10:22.960 --> 10:23.840] But that's, yeah.

[10:23.840 --> 10:24.960] But that's, yeah.

[10:24.960 --> 10:28.320] I mean, even the best we can do with that type of reaction rocket,

[10:28.320 --> 10:31.120] say a fusion hydrogen proton proton, which is really efficient,

[10:31.120 --> 10:34.960] like say 11%, 11% speed of light exhaust velocity.

[10:34.960 --> 10:40.400] That is, you could still do, you know, 20% the speed of light with that type of rocket.

[10:40.400 --> 10:45.040] And if you don't care about cargo at all, you can get that rocket up to 50% the speed of light.

[10:45.680 --> 10:49.520] But then cargo of course becomes literally a millionth of the payload,

[10:49.520 --> 10:52.720] but still 10%, 20% the speed of light with a super advanced-

[10:52.720 --> 10:58.560] Give it a bob, you add, add a little bit of light sails and then that'll get you.

[10:58.560 --> 10:58.880] Yes.

[10:58.880 --> 10:59.680] That'll get you there.

[10:59.680 --> 11:01.840] So that's going to be light sails and fusion.

[11:01.840 --> 11:02.720] That's going to be space travel.

[11:02.720 --> 11:06.880] That seems to be, I think that's pretty much where we're going for centuries.

[11:06.880 --> 11:10.960] Unless an ASI, artificial super intelligence, rises and then all bets are off.

[11:10.960 --> 11:16.880] But even then, he or she would be constrained to, to the physics, to physics as we know it.

[11:16.880 --> 11:19.280] And even, even, you know, the ASI might say,

[11:19.280 --> 11:22.640] damn man, this is the best I could do, but it's still going to be cool.

[11:22.640 --> 11:24.560] Yeah. It's almost as if we wrote a whole book about it.

[11:24.560 --> 11:24.720] Yeah.

[11:26.560 --> 11:30.560] It's almost as if I just did a deep dive research on it because I talked about it at Dragon Con.

[11:31.200 --> 11:31.680] Dragon Con.

[11:31.680 --> 11:32.480] How was Dragon Con?

[11:33.040 --> 11:33.920] It was great.

[11:33.920 --> 11:39.360] Liz and I went first time in three years and I know you guys were just so wicked jealous.

[11:39.360 --> 11:40.000] It was great.

[11:40.000 --> 11:40.560] Totally.

[11:40.560 --> 11:42.160] It was pretty much as we remember it.

[11:42.160 --> 11:45.840] Amazing costumes, amazing fun, lots of people.

[11:45.840 --> 11:50.160] And pretty much, I was double masked for like four days in a row

[11:50.160 --> 11:55.680] and I took a, took a test today and totally clean, no, totally negative.

[11:55.680 --> 11:59.360] So I think I totally, you know, got away with it totally.

[12:00.400 --> 12:01.040] I did a talk.

[12:01.040 --> 12:04.480] I called the science, I called, I called the science panel guys and I'm like,

[12:04.480 --> 12:07.840] I want to do the future of rockets.

[12:07.840 --> 12:10.880] And they'd made a panel with like five guys and I was one of them.

[12:10.880 --> 12:12.320] And I just went off.

[12:12.320 --> 12:14.480] I did a deep dive for weeks.

[12:14.480 --> 12:17.840] For weeks I did a deep dive just to refresh my memory and all the research that I had

[12:17.840 --> 12:20.880] done for the chapter of the book about future rockets.

[12:20.880 --> 12:21.920] And I got it down, man.

[12:21.920 --> 12:26.880] I made an awesome bullet list of all the top, the top things that I needed to keep straight

[12:26.880 --> 12:27.440] in my head.

[12:27.440 --> 12:29.680] And it was so much fun to research.

[12:29.680 --> 12:34.000] And there was a great panel, great panel, great fellow panelists with me.

[12:34.000 --> 12:36.960] They were all very knowledgeable and it was great.

[12:36.960 --> 12:38.880] But also I did some skeptical stuff.

[12:38.880 --> 12:40.240] I talked about the two books.

[12:40.240 --> 12:45.760] I did a, I did a one man show on stage on the skeptical track and I was like, oh boy,

[12:45.760 --> 12:46.960] this is scary.

[12:46.960 --> 12:47.840] But it was fine.

[12:47.840 --> 12:48.640] It was fine.

[12:48.640 --> 12:52.160] I just, I just went off on the books and then I started talking about rockets again.

[12:52.160 --> 12:52.960] And then that was it.

[12:52.960 --> 12:54.400] I was in my happy place.

[12:54.960 --> 12:56.560] And, uh, totally great.

[12:56.560 --> 13:00.160] Bob, totally utterly, absolutely.

[13:00.160 --> 13:04.560] Indubitably your solo talk was basically like a pared down news item for Bob.

[13:04.560 --> 13:06.080] Yeah, that's basically what it was.

[13:06.880 --> 13:07.520] It was great.

[13:07.520 --> 13:13.760] And, uh, so many, as usual, so many great costumes, the talent on display at Dragon

[13:13.760 --> 13:19.840] Con blows me away every time I go and I'm determined next year to have an awesome homemade

[13:19.840 --> 13:21.520] costume, which I didn't have this year.

[13:22.320 --> 13:22.480] Yeah.

[13:22.480 --> 13:24.240] We haven't been, I've been what, in four years now.

[13:24.240 --> 13:26.480] It'll be, we're definitely going to make a plan to go next year.

[13:27.120 --> 13:27.440] Yeah.

[13:27.440 --> 13:28.800] I mean, we were fine.

[13:28.800 --> 13:30.480] Pandemic willing, but I hopefully will.

[13:30.480 --> 13:30.720] Yeah.

[13:30.720 --> 13:31.200] It's time.

[13:31.200 --> 13:33.360] I mean, as long as things are good, we gotta go.

[13:33.360 --> 13:36.960] We were surrounded at times by thousands of people.

[13:36.960 --> 13:39.840] And at a couple of times I was like, this is uncomfortable.

[13:40.560 --> 13:44.080] But I had my double masks, you know, I held my breath a lot.

[13:44.640 --> 13:46.000] And it, and I'm fine.

[13:46.000 --> 13:48.720] Both Liz and I are both, you know, totally testing negative.

[13:48.720 --> 13:50.400] And it's been many, it's been days.

[13:50.400 --> 13:51.200] So it's doable.

[13:51.200 --> 13:53.760] Just, you know, you just, you know, you could take it easy.

[13:53.760 --> 13:57.840] You don't have to go into the big shoulder to shoulder crowds, um, you know?

[13:57.840 --> 13:58.320] And, uh, it's totally doable.

[13:58.320 --> 14:00.400] How about the, uh, the merch room?

[14:00.400 --> 14:00.800] Oh yeah.

[14:00.800 --> 14:02.640] That was, that was, you know, it was Christmas.

[14:02.640 --> 14:04.080] I'm, I'm walking towards it.

[14:04.080 --> 14:04.240] Yeah.

[14:04.240 --> 14:04.720] But how was it?

[14:04.720 --> 14:06.320] Was there a shoulder to shoulder in there?

[14:06.320 --> 14:07.200] No, no.

[14:07.200 --> 14:10.400] The first day, the first day it opened where I was like waiting for it.

[14:10.400 --> 14:13.360] And it was, it was, there's four floors, as you know.

[14:13.360 --> 14:17.680] And, uh, it was not shoulder to shoulder craziness at that, that the first few hours that I was

[14:17.680 --> 14:18.400] there.

[14:18.400 --> 14:20.080] And, uh, so that's, so that was fine too.

[14:20.080 --> 14:21.680] I was worried about that as well.

[14:21.680 --> 14:26.160] By the way, one last detail I've got to mention about the Orion capsule is that it's not just

[14:26.160 --> 14:27.920] that it's rated for 21 days.

[14:27.920 --> 14:32.800] When you come back from the moon, you reenter the atmosphere much faster than when you,

[14:32.800 --> 14:35.520] than when you're just coming down from low earth orbit.

[14:35.520 --> 14:39.360] And so the capsule has to be rated for high speed reentry.

[14:39.360 --> 14:39.680] Yeah.

[14:39.680 --> 14:43.360] And I think the, the Orion capsule is the only one that could do that.

[14:43.360 --> 14:48.400] So like the dragon capsule would really need to be redesigned or refitted to be a high

[14:48.400 --> 14:49.360] speed reentry.

[14:49.360 --> 14:51.520] That's yeah, that's, yeah, that's major.

[14:51.520 --> 14:53.200] You're not going to just slap on duct tape.

[14:53.200 --> 14:56.160] That's like a major event, major redesign.

[14:56.160 --> 14:56.960] I'm sure they could.

[14:56.960 --> 14:57.360] Yeah.

[14:57.360 --> 14:57.520] Yeah.

[14:57.520 --> 14:58.880] But I'm sure they could do it if they wanted to.

[14:58.880 --> 15:02.480] All right, Bob, um, you're going to start us off with a quickie.

[15:02.480 --> 15:05.200] You're going to tell us about Frank Drake.

[15:05.200 --> 15:06.320] Thank you, Steve.

Quickie with Bob: Frank Drake (15:00)

• Frank Drake passes away [link_URL TITLE]

[15:06.320 --> 15:08.800] Hello and welcome to your Quickie with Bob.

[15:08.800 --> 15:12.800] No need to gird your loins for this one, Kara, but you may need a hanky.

[15:12.800 --> 15:17.600] We lost astrophysicist Frank Drake this past September 2nd, 2022.

[15:17.600 --> 15:18.880] He was 92.

[15:18.880 --> 15:19.680] Good run.

[15:19.680 --> 15:20.400] Nice run.

[15:20.400 --> 15:20.880] Good run.

[15:20.880 --> 15:24.960] We always say that when you're like, you know, in the eighties or nineties, but 92 is great.

[15:24.960 --> 15:30.240] I would, I would pay a good chunk of money right now if you can guarantee me, um, 92.

[15:30.240 --> 15:35.600] So he is most famous, of course, for his 1961 Drake equation.

[15:35.600 --> 15:39.920] I would love to have an equation named after me like that, which attempts to determine

[15:39.920 --> 15:44.560] the number of technological civilizations in our galaxy whose signals we could detect.

[15:45.200 --> 15:46.800] We talked about it on the show many times.

[15:46.800 --> 15:49.120] I won't go into any more detail on the equation itself.

[15:49.120 --> 15:51.120] We all know it by heart.

[15:51.120 --> 15:52.080] He did this now.

[15:52.080 --> 15:58.160] He did this after doing the very first modern SETI experiment in 1960 called Project

[15:58.160 --> 16:04.960] OSMA using a radio telescope to examine the stars, Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani, two names

[16:04.960 --> 16:06.560] of stars that I absolutely love.

[16:06.560 --> 16:09.040] I think it's what the Star Trek vibe or whatever.

[16:09.040 --> 16:10.240] I just love those names.

[16:10.240 --> 16:12.320] To me, there's just so science fictiony.

[16:12.320 --> 16:18.080] Now he used a part of the spectrum called the water hole, which is awesome on many levels

[16:18.080 --> 16:20.720] because it's near the hydrogen spectral lines.

[16:20.720 --> 16:21.360] Get it?

[16:21.360 --> 16:26.400] And it's also that, that part of the spectrum, the electromagnetic spectrum that's especially

[16:26.400 --> 16:31.600] quiet, and he reasoned that other intelligences would realize that as well and that it would

[16:31.600 --> 16:35.360] be a really good, efficient frequency to communicate over.

[16:36.000 --> 16:42.480] Now that experiment took two months and $2,000 in new equipment, and he essentially created

[16:42.480 --> 16:47.280] a new field by doing that SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

[16:47.280 --> 16:51.760] From what I could tell, he did come up with that Drake equation to necessarily determine

[16:51.760 --> 16:56.320] the number of aliens that are out there, but as a way to stimulate discussions at the first

[16:56.320 --> 17:02.560] SETI meeting, because he was asked, hey, dude, because he became famous the year after he

[17:02.560 --> 17:02.960] did this.

[17:02.960 --> 17:09.120] He became well known the world over, and he was asked, hey, have this SETI conference,

[17:09.120 --> 17:10.560] the very first SETI conference.

[17:11.360 --> 17:17.280] He then came up with the Drake equation for that to stimulate discussions and thinking.

[17:17.280 --> 17:21.680] Drake's passion for astronomy and the possibility of life out there began when he was eight

[17:21.680 --> 17:26.000] years old, imagining alien Earths scattered across the night sky.

[17:26.000 --> 17:31.680] After his dad told him there were many worlds out there in space, and that was in 1938,

[17:31.680 --> 17:32.160] by the way.

[17:32.160 --> 17:32.960] Good on you, dad.

[17:33.760 --> 17:37.520] Seth Shostak said of him, Drake was never an impatient listener.

[17:37.520 --> 17:40.720] He was, to my mind, one of the last nice guys around.

[17:40.720 --> 17:44.800] He was never moody, never angry, and he didn't show the slightest annoyance if you walked

[17:44.800 --> 17:48.320] into his office and took his attention away from whatever he was doing.

[17:48.320 --> 17:53.920] And I read that over and over, people who had known him, that he was such a great, great

[17:53.920 --> 17:54.480] guy.

[17:54.480 --> 18:00.080] And I'll end with a quote from Nadia Drake, Frank's daughter, a titan in life, dad leaves

[18:00.080 --> 18:01.600] a titanic absence.

[18:02.720 --> 18:04.800] This was your sad quickie with Bob.

[18:04.800 --> 18:05.120] Thank you.

[18:06.000 --> 18:07.920] Yeah, it's always like a bittersweet, right?

[18:07.920 --> 18:14.000] It is sad to lose a giant like Frank Drake, but you're happy that he lived a long life.

[18:14.000 --> 18:16.560] He was relevant to the end.

[18:17.200 --> 18:23.440] Yeah, I mean, for centuries, as we're looking, and I think we'll never stop searching for

[18:23.440 --> 18:29.840] a life out there, his name will, and he will be in the thoughts of all the other big explorers

[18:29.840 --> 18:32.880] that haven't even been born yet that will be looking to the stars.

[18:32.880 --> 18:35.120] Bob, you and I are going to have to come up with our own equation.

[18:35.120 --> 18:36.400] It'll be the novella equation.

[18:36.400 --> 18:37.040] Yes, yes.

[18:37.040 --> 18:40.480] How about the probability that AI will wipe out human civilization?

[18:40.480 --> 18:41.920] Yes, all right.

[18:41.920 --> 18:42.640] Done.

[18:42.640 --> 18:43.440] We will do this.

[18:43.440 --> 18:44.800] That's too good not to happen.

[18:44.800 --> 18:45.040] All right.

[18:45.040 --> 18:45.840] All right.

[18:45.840 --> 18:46.640] Well, we'll work on it.

[18:46.640 --> 18:47.520] We'll come up with some other ideas.

[18:47.520 --> 18:48.880] That's horrible.

[18:48.880 --> 18:49.760] That's horrible.

News Items

S:

B:

C:

J:

E:

(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

follow up on the MOXIE instrument on Mars (18:51)

• [link_URL TITLE]

[18:50.720 --> 18:51.440] All right, Jay.

[18:51.440 --> 18:55.520] You actually were kind of an astronomy space theme.

[18:56.480 --> 19:02.320] You're going to tell us, give us a follow up on the MOXIE instrument on Mars.

[19:02.320 --> 19:04.240] Yeah, do you guys remember MOXIE?

[19:04.240 --> 19:05.040] The oxygen thing?

[19:05.040 --> 19:06.640] MOXIE is creating oxygen on Mars right now.

[19:06.640 --> 19:07.040] Yeah.

[19:07.040 --> 19:08.000] Oh, okay.

[19:08.000 --> 19:08.800] Now I remember.

[19:08.800 --> 19:12.160] It's one of my favorite things about Perseverance.

[19:12.160 --> 19:17.760] So just to go through the basics so you guys understand, it's totally worth talking about

[19:17.760 --> 19:19.840] again because it's this fascinating technology.

[19:19.840 --> 19:25.920] It's an instrument about the size of a lunchbox that is connected to the Perseverance rover.

[19:25.920 --> 19:30.240] It happens to live in the front right side of Perseverance.

[19:30.240 --> 19:36.240] And its job is to take in the Martian atmosphere, which is 96% death, right?

[19:36.240 --> 19:38.640] It's 96% carbon dioxide.

[19:38.640 --> 19:41.840] And what it does is it strips the carbon atom away from the oxygen atoms.

[19:41.840 --> 19:43.200] I'll get into more detail about that.

[19:44.240 --> 19:48.640] And they're testing it and it's gone amazingly well.

[19:48.640 --> 19:50.480] So let me get into some details.

[19:50.480 --> 19:56.240] So first of all, MOXIE stands for Mars Oxygen In-Situ Resource Utilization Experiment.

[19:56.880 --> 20:00.320] And it couldn't be, the name is perfect for what this little bugger does.

[20:00.320 --> 20:02.880] So details about how it works.

[20:02.880 --> 20:08.560] So it takes in the Martian air and it filters it to remove any contaminants that happen

[20:08.560 --> 20:11.440] to be in there and dust particles, dirt and all that crap.

[20:11.440 --> 20:15.760] The air is then pressurized and then it's fed into something called the Solid Oxide

[20:15.760 --> 20:16.640] Electrolyzer.

[20:16.640 --> 20:19.280] That totally sounds like, what was that?

[20:19.280 --> 20:20.480] The encabulator, Steve?

[20:21.040 --> 20:22.720] Yeah, the turbo encabulator.

[20:22.720 --> 20:23.220] Yeah.

[20:23.840 --> 20:29.120] So the Solid Oxide Electrolyzer, this is an instrument that electrochemically splits the

[20:29.120 --> 20:33.120] carbon dioxide molecule into oxygen ions and carbon monoxide.

[20:33.680 --> 20:40.880] The oxygen ions are separated from the carbon monoxide and then they combine them to make

[20:40.880 --> 20:43.920] molecular oxygen, which is essentially just oxygen.

[20:43.920 --> 20:47.440] MOXIE then measures how much oxygen it creates, right?

[20:47.440 --> 20:54.000] So as it has created this batch, it measures how much it has just created and it also checks

[20:54.000 --> 20:56.720] its purity before it releases it back into the atmosphere.

[20:56.720 --> 21:00.320] And that's what MOXIE is doing right now, is just spitting this stuff right back out

[21:00.320 --> 21:01.200] into the atmosphere.

[21:01.920 --> 21:04.640] The single unit weighs, how much do you guys think this thing weighs?

[21:04.640 --> 21:05.140] Four pounds?

[21:06.160 --> 21:07.280] 21 kilos.

[21:07.280 --> 21:10.080] Not bad, 37 pounds or 17 kilos.

[21:10.080 --> 21:14.720] And now it does the work of a small tree, if you can believe that.

[21:14.720 --> 21:15.280] The unit was-

[21:15.280 --> 21:15.780] How small?

[21:16.640 --> 21:17.520] I'll get into detail.

[21:17.520 --> 21:21.760] A small tree, meaning I would say anything that's probably below 10 feet, like it's

[21:21.760 --> 21:23.520] a non-mature tree.

[21:24.160 --> 21:29.040] The unit was first turned on in February 2021 and every test they ran worked perfectly.

[21:29.040 --> 21:33.920] They ran seven experimental runs at different conditions, which now that I think about it,

[21:33.920 --> 21:39.360] of course they had to test it under different conditions because Mars can be so variable.

[21:39.360 --> 21:44.160] They first have to warm up MOXIE for a few hours because it's cold.

[21:44.160 --> 21:47.600] And then they run it for about an hour and then they shut it down.

[21:47.600 --> 21:49.680] And that's them just running a cycle test on it.

[21:50.800 --> 21:54.880] And what they do is they run it during the day, then they tested it at night, then they

[21:54.880 --> 22:00.640] tested it in different seasons because the temperature and the air pressure, the density

[22:00.640 --> 22:05.360] and the overall air temperature can vary a lot, like 100 degree shifts in temperature

[22:05.360 --> 22:08.080] depending on the season and time of day and all that.

[22:08.080 --> 22:13.600] So they haven't tested it during dawn and dusk because there are significant temperature

[22:13.600 --> 22:17.200] changes that happen during those times and they just want to like do preliminary testing

[22:17.200 --> 22:19.280] and then they're going to get into the more advanced testing.

[22:19.280 --> 22:25.120] But so far, every scenario that they put it through, it worked fantastically well.

[22:25.120 --> 22:28.880] It produces six grams of oxygen per hour.

[22:29.440 --> 22:32.720] So this is equal to, as I said, a small tree on Earth.

[22:32.720 --> 22:38.320] MOXIE is the first, it's the first thing that we've put on another planet that does what

[22:38.320 --> 22:38.800] guys?

[22:38.800 --> 22:41.280] Creates oxygen.

[22:41.280 --> 22:46.640] Well, more importantly, it's the first thing that ever used local resources and manufactured

[22:46.640 --> 22:48.400] them into something that's usable.

[22:48.400 --> 22:48.880] That's cool.

[22:50.000 --> 22:50.720] Very cool.

[22:50.720 --> 22:53.040] That is like, that is a milestone here.

[22:53.040 --> 22:57.680] It's incredibly useful because it could save, I'm going to start off by saying millions,

[22:57.680 --> 23:01.840] but after hearing Steve talk about how expensive these missions are, it could save billions

[23:01.840 --> 23:07.600] of dollars or more quintillions in cost to ship oxygen to Mars, right?

[23:07.600 --> 23:11.680] Think about it because we'd have to ship frequently ship a lot of oxygen to Mars.

[23:11.680 --> 23:13.600] That stuff is heavy, by the way.

[23:13.600 --> 23:14.880] Sorry, the launch is late, guys.

[23:14.880 --> 23:16.080] Hold your breath for a week.

[23:16.080 --> 23:20.400] The current version of MOXIE was made small deliberately so it could fit on perseverance

[23:20.400 --> 23:26.080] and it wasn't built to run continuously, but in its current form, it has proven to be very

[23:26.080 --> 23:29.840] efficient, which is very important because it won't use a lot of energy and it's reliable.

[23:29.840 --> 23:35.600] The next big test for MOXIE is to run it when the atmosphere is at its densest and they

[23:35.600 --> 23:37.920] plan to run it for as long as possible now.

[23:37.920 --> 23:40.960] They're just going to let that little bugger keep chugging along and just see what happens

[23:40.960 --> 23:43.520] to it because that'll teach us more about what to do.

[23:43.520 --> 23:48.160] Since MOXIE has to be turned on and then it has to be heated up and then they turn it

[23:48.160 --> 23:50.720] off, it goes through something called thermal stress, right?

[23:50.720 --> 23:54.240] Temperature goes up and the metal and parts expand and do what they're going to do and

[23:54.240 --> 23:56.320] then when it cools off, it shrinks back down.

[23:56.320 --> 24:01.600] Now since MOXIE is able to handle thermal stress, the researchers say that a new larger

[24:01.600 --> 24:06.720] system, MOXIE on steroids, would be able to last a very long time since it won't be

[24:06.720 --> 24:12.240] experiencing anywhere near the number of thermal stresses that MOXIE has already proven to

[24:12.240 --> 24:12.960] go through.

[24:12.960 --> 24:18.880] I know they've only tested it seven times, but that's a lot and they could turn on the

[24:18.880 --> 24:23.680] larger version of it and it may never turn off until its end of life cycle.

[24:23.680 --> 24:24.480] It just does what it does.

[24:24.480 --> 24:25.520] Just let it run, yeah.

[24:25.520 --> 24:30.560] Yeah, the larger version of MOXIE could be placed on Mars way before we put humans there.

[24:30.560 --> 24:32.800] It could be producing oxygen for a long time.

[24:32.800 --> 24:35.600] There could be a whole cache of oxygen ready to go.

[24:36.560 --> 24:42.720] The new unit, of course, they want it to run continuously and it could make approximately

[24:43.360 --> 24:46.400] several hundred trees worth of oxygen per day.

[24:46.400 --> 24:47.120] Per day?

[24:47.120 --> 24:47.600] Yes.

[24:47.600 --> 24:48.160] Not bad.

[24:48.160 --> 24:48.640] How many?

[24:48.640 --> 24:49.440] How much is that?

[24:49.440 --> 24:53.920] As a point of reference, Kara, I'm going to tell you a single person needs about seven

[24:53.920 --> 24:56.240] to eight trees worth of oxygen a day.

[24:56.240 --> 24:57.600] Oh, damn.

[24:57.600 --> 24:58.800] That's a lot.

[24:58.800 --> 24:59.040] Yep.

[24:59.600 --> 25:05.120] But, you know, if you do the math, you know, several hundred trees divided by eight turns

[25:05.120 --> 25:09.200] into quite a good crew of people there that the machine could keep alive.

[25:09.200 --> 25:12.240] And who says that they don't put two or three MOXIE machines?

[25:12.240 --> 25:13.840] Yeah, they want some redundancy.

[25:14.720 --> 25:18.160] The great thing about oxygen is what, first, it keeps us alive.

[25:18.720 --> 25:23.040] And the second great thing is that it, of course, can be used as fuel because we need

[25:23.040 --> 25:24.800] fuel to get off the surface of Mars.

[25:24.800 --> 25:29.600] And oxygen is a primary component in fuel, you know, in chemical fuel.

[25:29.600 --> 25:32.560] So thank you, MOXIE, for working.

[25:32.560 --> 25:35.680] So the carbon monoxide is useful, too.

[25:35.680 --> 25:36.000] Oh, yeah.

[25:36.000 --> 25:38.640] Don't discount the carbon monoxide is a high energy molecule.

[25:38.640 --> 25:42.880] And that's feedstock for things like hydrocarbons.

[25:42.880 --> 25:44.640] So all that you need is hydrogen.

[25:44.640 --> 25:49.360] If we could get a source of hydrogen on Mars, then you can combine the hydrogen with the

[25:49.360 --> 25:51.120] carbon monoxide to make methane.

[25:51.120 --> 25:55.120] The hydrogen, obviously, itself could be burned with the oxygen as rocket fuel.

[25:55.920 --> 25:58.000] And there are sources of hydrogen on Mars.

[25:58.000 --> 26:03.360] There are there's a lot of water on Mars and so not all of it is in drinkable form.

[26:03.360 --> 26:09.360] There are like what they call perchlorate brines, which is a lot of hydroxyl groups,

[26:09.360 --> 26:13.920] a lot of a lot of water type, you know, molecular groups in there.

[26:13.920 --> 26:14.880] Water-ish.

[26:14.880 --> 26:18.880] Yeah, well, hydrogen and oxygen, but it's not necessarily drinkable water.

[26:18.880 --> 26:23.840] But you get that you split the hydrogen off, you have pure hydrogen, you have more oxygen,

[26:23.840 --> 26:26.800] you could make fuel, you have oxygen to burn with the fuel.

[26:26.800 --> 26:30.560] We definitely are going to need to be able to make all of our fuel for the return trip

[26:30.560 --> 26:31.600] locally on Mars.

[26:31.600 --> 26:33.280] You can't carry all that crap with you.

[26:33.280 --> 26:36.000] Yeah, rocket equation will kill you if you try to do that.

[26:36.000 --> 26:42.400] So and then if and then if we could find a source of nitrogen on Mars, then we also have

[26:42.400 --> 26:45.600] our fertilizer to grow our own food there.

[26:45.600 --> 26:50.160] And there is nitrogen on Mars already fixed in the form of nitrates.

[26:50.160 --> 26:56.160] So, yeah, the bottom line is pretty much we have everything we need on Mars, you know,

[26:56.160 --> 26:57.840] for food, oxygen and water.

[26:57.840 --> 26:59.600] Except for the hamburger molecules.

[26:59.600 --> 27:05.280] Well, yeah, but you just grow the food and then you raise the animals and slaughter them.

[27:05.280 --> 27:08.080] And then you have your hamburger.

[27:08.080 --> 27:10.080] Thank you, Dr. Strangelove.

[27:10.080 --> 27:12.880] Just make some lab-grown meat, that'd be fine.

[27:12.880 --> 27:14.400] Yeah, there you go, lab-grown meat.

News_Item_2 (27:16)

• [link_URL TITLE]

News_Item_3 (43:45)

• [link_URL TITLE]

News_Item_4 (57:14)

• [link_URL TITLE]

Who's That Noisy? (1:10:42)

Answer to previous Noisy:

Chinese tongue-twisting poem, "Lion-Eating Poet in the Stone Den

J: ... similar to English's "Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo [+ 3 'buffalos']"

...

C: (sing-song) Homonymy!

New Noisy (1:14:49)

[musical boings and dings]

J: ... If you think you know the answer or you have a cool Noisy you heard this week, you can email me at WTN@theskepticsguide.org.

Science or Fiction (1:18:27)

Theme: Social Psychology Item #1: A recent study finds that positive fortune-telling results in increased financial risk-taking for men but not for women. Item #2: A study of 5-years-olds finds that they perceive overweight people to be happier than thin people. Item #3: A study of college students finds that mask-wearing does not impair social interactions.

Answer	Item
Fiction	Overweight happier than thin
Science	Risk-taking men vs. women
Science	Mask-wearing impairs not

Host	Result
Steve	win

Rogue	Guess
Bob	Mask-wearing impairs not
Jay	Mask-wearing impairs not
Evan	Overweight happier than thin
Cara	Overweight happier than thin

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:29:29)

A good ghost story may hold entertainment and even cultural value, but the popular portrayal of pseudoscientific practices as science may be detracting from efforts to cultivate a scientifically literate public.
– Micheal Knees, engineering psychologist

Signoff

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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Today I Learned

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