SGU Episode 872

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SGU Episode 872
March 26th 2022
(brief caption for the episode icon)
SGU 871                      SGU 873
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Quote of the Week
For scientists, transparency is a way to promote reproducibility, progress, and trust in research. For philosophers of science, transparency can help address the value-ladenness of scientific research in a responsible way. Nevertheless, the concept of transparency is a complex one.
Kevin C. Elliott, American professor of Philosophy
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Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction, DST year-round in USA

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022, and this is your host, Steven Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella...

B: (pauses) Wait. What do I say? "Hey, everybody"? Hello? (Cara and Evan laugh.) Oh shoot. Crap. (feebly) What's up!

S: Really?

Cara Santa Maria...

C: (laughing) Howdy.

S: Jay Novella...

J: Hey guys.

S: ...and Evan Bernstein.

E: I can't top Bob, but hello, everyone.

S: Bob! Your second-worst intro ever.

(Rogues Laugh)

E: Oh snap!

J: That is saying something!

E: Ouch!

B: That's what I was shootin' for.

E: Second-worst!

S: Good. Well, mission accomplished. (Cara and Evan laugh.)

Was it just last week? Last week we were talking about the fact that just, out of nowhere, the Senate unanimously passed this bill with a provision to make daylight savings time permanent, perennial—basically, year-round. And we all thought that was a great idea. And we got—this was our most email response-topic of the week. Just the—

E: —Definitely.

S: —offhand discussion that we were having. Everybody had basically the same feedback. We were saying how this was a great idea, but actually it's controversial or it could be a bad idea, and there are concerns about going to perennial daylight savings time. But here's the thing. We were only—there's two components to this, right? One is making one time permanent, and then the other is—

C: —Right. Not which time is it.

S: —Yeah. Is it DST, daylight savings time, versus standard time. And we were only really talking about the first bit. It's like, yes—and that is really not controversial. Everyone pretty much agrees, scientists, etc., no matter what angle you look at it, the feedback is, basically, everyone agrees we should have one, perennial time. And that most of the negative impacts come from the switching twice a year. Like there's definitely an increase in car accidents after the "spring forward" and more heart attacks and things like that. So let's talk about the second part, right, since we didn't talk about that last week: daylight savings time versus standard time. What do you guys think?

C: So, if we stay on daylight saving, that means, then, that the Sun is up later?

S: Mm-hmm.

C: Well, okay.

B: Yep. Yeah.

C: The day is shorter, regardless, in the winter. Right? The Sun is out for less time in the winter, regardless.

J: Mm-hmm.

B: Right.

C: But if we stay on daylight saving, we're pushing the Sun back slightly later, so there's a chance that people are going to work and school in the dark. And that seems to be the biggest complaint, right?

S & J: Mm-hmm.

C: And so if we do it the opposite way, our day starts with more sun, but it gets dark earlier in the day.

S: Right.

C: I guess the question is, (laughing) which is more depressing? And also, which is—honestly, like from a public health perspective—which is healthier? I think early morning sun is probably healthier.

E: Hmm… (sighs)

J: Well the changing of time, I've read many, many, many times—because I think this article comes out every year—that when the time changes, people die because of it.

C: Well, yeah, but we're saying, all things being equal, [if] there is no time shift, which one do we stick with?

E: Right. Which one do we lock in? The one where you get less sun in the morning or more sun in the evening? Err, no…

S: Those are the same thing, Evan.

B: Well it's the same.

E: Yeah, it's the same thing. (Rogues laugh.) More sun in the morning, more sun in the evening.

J: Evan solved the problem!

E: Yeah! Solved that.

J: I think we do the one that requires no change.

C: No, but any—either of them requires a change. (Steve and Evan laugh.) Either we default to daylight saving, or we default to standard time.

E: You have to choose one.

C: We're going to change once.

J: Standard time all the way, 100%.

C: Okay. So if we stick—

J: —Guaranteed. No risk, guaranteed.

C: So if we stick with standard time, you're saying what a lot of the emailers said, and what I just said about it's lighter earlier in the day.

J: Yeah.

S: Gets dark earlier in the evening.

C: The Sun's going to set at like four o'clock—

E: —I don't like that.

C: —in some parts of the country.

E: I like more light in the evening because—

B: —Me too.

E: —because if more—I imagine the majority of the people work a, sort of, the classic nine-to-five kind of workday. That extra hour in the evening of light allows you to do more activities in the evening, whereas you're not going to be doing those activities anyways in the morning. You're kind of squandering that morning light.

J: Well, Ev—

C: —Yeah, but from a purely circadian kind of health neurological perspective, waking up with the Sun is healthier. It is. Like, shift workers don't do as well.

J: Wait—

S: —Well, that's shift working, though. But hang on. So, now I'm going to give you the actual answer. (Evan Laughs.)

C: Oh, come on! (Rogues laugh)

E: I didn't realize this was a—

S: —And the answer is—

E: —Science or Fiction.

S: —my favorite answer to these questions: it's complicated. (Evan laughs.)

C: Aww!

S: But I did do a deep dive onto this one. What does the science say? Because right after this happened, the American Sleep Association said, "No, this is bad. It should be standard time because—" So there's this concept of social jet lag—

J & C: Mm-hmm.

S: —which is a disconnect between your work hours, like when you get up and go to bed, and the sunrise and sunset. And they said that standard time is better aligned with our circadian rhythm than daylight saving time.

C: Yeah!

B: Wait. So which one is standard, then? Just make that clear.

C: Standard is earlier sun.

S: Standard time is—

E: —More sun in the morning.

S: Yeah. So, like, in the winter that—winter is standard time; the summer is daylight saving time.

E: For us in the northern hemisphere.

S: Doesn't matter what hemisphere you're in.

E: It doesn't?

S: I said seasons, not months.

E: Oh right, okay.

S: But in any case, so if we take just the purely scientific view rather than the personal choice view, it's what I'm saying. The scientific view—

C: —That's what I was making an argument for!

S: I agree with you that—I agree that that's the standard—the answer, then. But I looked into that, and that's actually a really shaky conclusion. So there was a systematic review that was published a couple years ago because this question keeps coming up and coming up. And they said, "You know…the data is really not there, and scientists should be a little bit more soft on their recommendations." First of all, we don't really have any head-to-head dst versus standard time scientific studies. We just don't. So we—

C: —But we must have studies of people who work an earlier shift versus people who—like, people who drive to work in the dark versus people who drive to work in the light.

S: Well, again, what I'm reading is we don't really have any head-to-head studies.

C: Hmm.

S: So everything is inferred mainly from the time shifting, and that's not really a good, you know, because you—

C: —Not at all.

S: Yeah.

B: Yeah.

S: And so the real answer is we don't know. But, having said that, if you take the evidence that we do have, what you could say is, "All right. Even though it's secondary sort of inferential, it does—it is leaning towards that standard time is better than daylight saving time." But—

B: —Why?

S: —the effect size is not that big!

C: Yeah.

S: And that's the other thing. It's like, okay, sure, but does it really matter?

B: It doesn't matter anyway.

S: Is it—

C: —What about all the people who wrote in to say, "We tried that."

S: Well, yeah.

C: We tried that for two years, to shift to daylight saving, and everybody freaked out and hated it, and we shifted back.

S: Yeah. So there's lots of—there's other variables, though, too. One of the points that a lot of the people brought up as well: it's not as safe for children to go to school in the morning. But, we've talked previously about the fact that school starts too early anyway.

C & B: Yes!

S: So in the same organization—the same Sleep Association of America, or whatever—says that we should start school an hour later. You know, if you did start school and hour later—

C: —Yeah. That solves the problem too.

S: —that would completely offset the permanent daylight saving time.

E: Sure would.

C: But that's an example, Steve, of where we're making decisions based on that sort of social thing, not based on the health.

S: Yeah.

C: Like the reason kids go to school when they go to school is because it's convenient for the parents.

S: Yes! Right.

C: Because of their jobs. Yeah.

S: So this is what I think after reading all of this. I don't think it really matters is the bottom line. I think what does matter is going to one time. That's what matters. The shift is bad. Shifting twice a year is definitely a no-go.

B: Then why don't you want more daylight at the end of the day? (Cara and Evan laugh.)

C: We just said why!

E: Bob and I are in the same camp.

S: Bob, this is why. Let me get to my actual point. If the clocks don't change, then the only other variable is when do you start school, when do you start work? It's the social clock, right? And so that we can leave up to the individual and to the individual school system or company or whatever. Everyone isn't forced to change because the clocks are changing. You could decide, or the school system could decide, "Well, given that this is the time and everything else, we're going to have school start at this time to make sure that kids get enough sleep, and it's light out in the morning when they're going to school." Whatever. And it's fixed because the clocked is fixed. You know what I mean?

C: Yeah, but do you really think that would happen, Steve?

S: Well, I'm saying that's what should happen.

C: I think people are just going to keep doing things—yeah, but I think people are going to do things the way they way always did it because they think that's what they should do.

S: But that’s social convention. We can’t change—

C: —It sucks!

S: —the Sun, but we have 100% control over when we decide that school’s going to start or work is going to start or whatever. (Cara and Evan laugh.) And companies—

C: —That would take such a momentous cultural shift to go, "From now on, we’re just going to, like, go to work at 10 instead of 8." (laughs) I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

S: Well…I, I disagree with that.

C: It’s so embedded in the culture.

S: First of all, a lot of companies have already moved to flex time, where people can go in—they could decide what 8-hour period they want—

E: —I’d set my own hours, that’s for sure.

S: —to work during the day. They can come an hour early. They can come an hour late. And that helps, too, because then that spreads out rush hour, so we’re not all trying to get to work at the same exact time.

C: But certain industries don’t allow for it. It is an understood and known fact that out here in L.A., in the entertainment industry, our days start between like 9 and 10. In New York, in the financial services industries, the days start at 7.

S: Mm-hmm. Yeah, but again, that’s con—

C: —There’s just whole industries that have—yeah, that have convention.

S: —Convention.

C: But also: Wall Street is Wall Street. Like, if you have to be at work when the market opens, you have to be at work when the market opens.

S: Yeah, but can’t the market just decide, "We’re going to open at 8 instead of 7"?

C: (laughing) They can but they won’t (Evan laughs) is what I'm saying.

S: But if we’re—

C: —There’s being idealistic, and then there’s being practical.

E: —Realistic.

S: But if we’re changing the time, right, we’re changing the clocks (Cara laughs), that’s a bigger change than—

C: —I have a solution!

S: Yeah?

C: I have a solution, Steve.

E: Daylight—leave it alone.

C: We’re going to do what they do in some parts of India, and I think there’s a couple other places in the [world] that do it, and it’s batshit: we’ll split the difference—

E: —Half-hour?

C: —and we’ll make time on the half-hour (laughing).

S: Oh, well, that’s stupid. (Rogues laugh.)

C: There are, literally, some regions that do that. Isn’t that bananas?

E: There are some half-hour time zones. Yeah.

C: Their time zone is on the half-hour.

E: Yeah, look at the time zone map. There’s some weird places—

S: —Well that's the other thing to think about this, though, is that we have one-hour time zones, so that means that there are people who are already an hour shifted compared to other people in the same time zone.

E: That’s right.

C: Absolutely!

S: Again, that’s my point:—

E: —Living on the borders of those zones…

S: —it doesn’t really matter. You have to individualize anyway. If you’re on the western edge of a time zone, you may decide that you’re going to do things an hour early on the clock or whatever. That’s why I think the only real important thing is that we—

B: —Stick to one.

S: —don’t change twice a year. We just pick one—

E: —Lock it in.

S: —That’s the time. And then, now, everyone can decide when they’re going to do stuff. And not everybody is forced to shift their clock twice a year.

B: Right. All right, so I'm going to jump in [and] make an argument for Evan and me. All right—

E: —Thanks, Bob.

B: —another, first off!, I mean, yeah. (Jay laughs.) I want summertime in that I want the day to be as long as possible in terms of sunlight at the end of the day. To me, that’s just like, "Yeah! Why doesn’t everybody feel that way?" Secondly—

C: —But summer’s already long even if you’re on daylight savings.

B: I know! I know, alright. (Rogues laugh.) That extra hour at the end of the day, I love.

Secondly, I mean, you know, people complain about driving to work in the dark. First off, the sunrise is beautiful thing! How many do you see? How many sunrises are you going to see until the end of your life? Probably not that many because most people wake up when [the Sun] is already up. This way you drive to work, you see a sunrise five days a week! That's awesome.

C: That’s a good argument, Bob. (Evan laughs.) This is like—we’re doing the throw down right now, and you might be winning.

J: Wait, wait, wait—

B: —Yup. (Evan laughs.) The only time I would ever win it on the podcast. (Rogues laugh.) Not on the stage.

J: I think that most of the time, when people wake up, the Sun is out. And it would great—

B: —Exactly.

J: Right? The Sun is already up. It’s probably smart to really do this largely by when do kids go up to the bus stop? What is the earliest round of kids going up to the bus stop? I believe that that time is somewhere around 8:30?—is when the earliest bus stops start to happen?

E: Right now? No…6:00.

C: No…L.A.'s bus stops are way before 8:30.

S: Yeah, that because your kids aren’t in high school yet, Jay.

J: Well what’s the high—

C: —Yeah, Jay, it’s 6:00. 6:45, 7:00, 7:30.

S: —It keeps getting earlier.

E: —6:30.

J: Okay. So why don’t we have the Sun rise at 7:15? Kids are on the bus at 7:30. It’s light out when kids are going to the bus.

S: So you’re making an argument for standard time?

C: You’re on standard time.

E: For shifting…

J: Standard time, but with a very specific change to when sunrise happens, to help kids get on the bus for school.

C: So you’re actually talking not just about sticking to standard time but potentially changing what time of day it is based on the Sun, to even earlier.

S: I think Jay wants to change the orbit of the Earth.

J: No! (Cara laughs.) Because couldn’t—Steve, can we standardize what time the Sun comes up around the clock?

S: No. No. Because we have time zones, as I just said. (Cara laughs.) It’s going to come up an hour later for people at opposite ends of the same time zone.

C: Yeah, the time zone is just a line, a literal geographic line, and you might be right on the edge of it.

S: And if you have mountains where you live, that delays sunrise too.

J: That’s true.

E: Sure does. Yes.

S: So you can’t standardize that. But you just have to pick: do we want the Sun to be rising earlier so that kids will have a greater chance of having daylight when they’re getting on the bus, or do we want sun at the end of the day? That’s basically…—

E: —Sun at the end of the day, start the school day later.

S: —A one-hour available.

C: And again—

J: I think it’s important for the Sun to be up, to some degree, in the morning. Right? So if kids are going to walk out to the—

E: —So move the school day.

S: Then make school start later.

J: I agree.

S: That’s the other shift.

J: That’s what I’m—

E: —That’s the—That’s where you have the control.

S: —And they can—we already know that we should be doing that because kids will get more sleep, and they do better in school and everything is better.

E: There ya go.

S: So if we do that, then we can do daylight saving time.

J: Okay.

S: Now, here, just a couple more things that haven’t been mentioned. So first of all, the Senate did debate this very question. They debated daylight saving time versus standard time, and they—

C: —And they chose daylight saving.

S: —They chose daylight saving. That’s because a lot of industries came in and said, "We want daylight saving time. It’s better for our industry." And that won the argument over kids getting to school safely.

C: Why was better for their industries? Longer working days?

S: Whatever. More sales, people shop more—

C: —Maybe farming?

S: —Well farms, from what I understand, don’t care because the cows get up when the Sun does. They’re kind of on solar time anyway, so it’s not as big a deal, but—

C: —So it’s all capitalism. Just consumption.

S: Yeah, basically.

C: (laughs) Just more daylight to consume and buy. (Rogues assent)

S: But here’s the other point of view. Again, the review article I read said the thing is it’s not that big a deal in a way because of LEDs, because of lighting. We actually have so much bright, artificial lighting that our circadian rhythm isn’t tied to the Sun the way it used to be. It's really—we have more control over it because of artificial lighting. So it may not be that big of an issue. You just light the streets and who cares if the Sun’s up or not?

So anyway, it's complicated, as I said. There really isn’t any clear answer, and the thing is, we may need to tie other decisions to this decision.

J: Mm-hmm

S: That’s kind of my points. We can’t do this in a vacuum. But I think that—pick—and I actually don’t even really care. I think just pick one, and that’s this time, and there’s no change twice a year, and then, hopefully, the societal changes will adjust to it.

C: We’ll adjust to it.

S: And we’ll find the balance in all of these things. But we don’t have—

E: —Bob and Evan care. (Bob laughs.)

S: —You can’t assume that everything else is going to stay the same, and this is the only change we’re going to make, and it’s have to work. And that’s probably why it failed back in the '70s because they didn’t otherwise adjust to the fact that they were not switching their clock. Anyway, I think that's the deeper discussion of it.

C: And I can imagine that there’s like this huge listenership that doesn’t fall within our ideal latitude band that’s like (Evan laughs) "What are you talking about!? I live in northern Scotland!

S: (Steve laughs.) Yeah, right.

C: The Sun comes up at like 11:00 AM and sets at like 5:00 P.M. It’s horrible! (laughs)

E: Well there’s a solution for that, too.

C: You know, and in the summer it stays up all day, too.

E: Go south.

C: It’s like, we’re kind of lucky in that we have that kind of classic 12 hours of Sun—or I don’t know what our standard hour—8 to 12 [hours] over the course of the year.

S: It varies, yeah, based on the season.

J: So what’s likely to happen?

E: We’re 9 to 15 in Connecticut.

J: They’re going to change all these schedules. They’re not going to do the ultimate intelligent thing to do. They’re going to change—they’re going to get rid of daylight savings time, make it just—the clock doesn’t change. And then, what are they not going to do that you think they should do?

C: Change [inaudible].

S: Right now they’re going to make daylight saving time permanent. That’s—

J: Yes.

C: —Which means it’ll be dark at the school—at the bus stop.

S: Which means it’ll be dark in the morning, even in the winter months.

C: And then they’re not going to change the time that school starts. (laughs)

S: And, yeah, they should make school start later for multiple reasons, now, and they probably won’t.

B: —(wistfully) And they could see the sunrise every day. (Cara laughs.)

E: Assuming it’s not cloudy.

S: Yeah. It’s a big social experiment. That’s the bottom line.

E: Oh boy. (Cara laughs.)

S: And I don’t know that we could actually—how much we could learn from what happened in the '70s.

C: Yeah, I didn’t even know about that. I only know of it because of all the people that wrote in to be like, (small voice) "Don’t you remember?"

S: [inaudible]

E: Ah, no. (Rogues laugh.)

S: We literally have, what, twice as much lighting than we did back then?

B: Whoa.

S: I mean, it’s completely—it's a different world.

B & E: [inaudible]

S: It’s a different world.

C: Right.

E: (sing-song) "A whole new world!"

S: There ya go. All right. Let’s go on to some news items.

News Items

S:

B:

C:

J:

E:

(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

SLS is Here (18:06)

• It's huge, expensive, and years late—but the SLS rocket is finally here

S: Jay, tell us about the Moon rocket that's finally here.

J: Steve, did you know--

B: --Yeah!

COVID Brain (29:59)

• What do we mean by 'COVID-19 changes your brain'?

Origin of Life (40:22)

• Origins of Life From RNA

Orbiting Solar Power (52:23)

• The UK reportedly wants to build a massive solar station in space — how would it work?

[use "link needed" template, as in S: We discussed this story on a previous show/we've talked about this before^{[link needed]}. ]

Antarctic Temperature (1:05:30)

• It's 70 degrees warmer than normal in eastern Antarctica. Scientists are flabbergasted.

Who's That Noisy? (1:12:07)

Answer to previous Noisy:

Lithium-ion battery in thermal runaway after being punctured

New Noisy (1:15:54)

[creepy, eerie, ringing tones]

J: ... So if you think what this week's Noisy is, guys, or if you heard something cool -- ...

Science or Fiction (1:29:59)

Theme: Bread Item #1: In 1943 sliced bread was banned in the US, with threats of "stern action" against private shops slicing bread, but the order was rescinded within 2 months due to public outrage. Item #2: Physicists recently developed a technique for leavening bread without yeast or chemicals by directly dissolving gas into the dough. Item #3: A recent systematic review of studies concluded that increased average daily bread consumption, regardless of type, is associated with a reduced risk of obesity and becoming overweight.

Answer	Item
Fiction	More bread, less obese
Science	Leavening with gas
Science	Bread ban rescinded

Host	Result
Steve	swept

Rogue	Guess
Cara	More bread, less obese
Bob	More bread, less obese
Evan	More bread, less obese
Jay	More bread, less obese

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Steve Explains Item #1

...purchase...

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:52:48)

For scientists, transparency is a way to promote reproducibility, progress, and trust in research. For philosophers of science, transparency can help address the value-ladenness of scientific research in a responsible way. Nevertheless, the concept of transparency is a complex one.
– Kevin C. Elliott, American professor of Philosophy at Michigan State University

Signoff/Announcements

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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