SGU Episode 869

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SGU Episode 869
March 05th 2022
(brief caption for the episode icon)
SGU 868                      SGU 870
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Quote of the Week
Keep your identity separate from your opinions. [Your opinions] are objects in a box you carry with you and should be easily replaceable if it turns out they're no good. If you think that the opinions in the box are who you are, then you'll cling to them despite any evidence to the contrary. Bottom line, if you want to always be right, you need to always be prepared to change your mind.
CGP Grey, American-Irish educational YouTuber, podcaster
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Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction, Ukraine Invasion

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Tuesday, 1^st 2022 and this is your host, Steven Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella...

B: Hey, everybody!

S: Cara Santa Maria...

C: Howdy.

S: Jay Novella...

J: Hey guys.

S: ...and Evan Bernstein.

E: Good evening folks!

S: So obviously the big news, the past week since we recorded the last show is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, so which of course is is terrible and obviously our sympathies are with Ukraine and Ukrainian people. We were hoping to actually have our friend George Hrab on the show today, who is Ukrainian. He obviously has a lot of strong emotions and opinions and information about what's going on but unfortunately he was not available tonight as we're recording. Maybe we'll get him on you know if as I doubt this is going to go away anytime soon, so we'll probably have them on at some point you know during the situation. It's been, it's been weird, it's been a weird week yeah you know.

C: It's been horrifying.

S: That's the thing, it's horrifying on the one side although we saw it coming, you know we knew what Putin was going to do but the other side it's like, yeah Ukraine and Zelenskyy have been inspiring.

C: Oh for sure.

S: Talk about like Zelenskyy kicked Putin's ass in terms of the PR battle, totally, like Putin is humiliated I think it's fair to say, in terms of, he's an international pariah, he we totally call this bluff on the sanctions and they're not even militarily executing their assault well. They're getting you know, they're getting bogged down already. So they failed like on every level. And so it's the, it's horrible but it's also a little inspiring, the reaction to it you know.

C: Yeah I think the thing that's so sad to see a obviously is the death and destruction of this you know incredibly illegal invasion and also the reporting, even out of Russia. How many of Russian citizens are bewildered and depressed by what's going on because they're not obviously backing Putin, sure, some Russians probably are but a large percentage of Russian citizens are like what it, why is my country doing this.

E: Right because they are the ones who are most affected as far as people on this on the Russian side of this goes. The day-to-day people you know Putin and his oligarchs and all the people high up and, they'll be fine in a certain sense. But it's the people who are going to pay. Do you know the ruble today is worth less than one cent to compare to the US dollar. That ruble has absolutely crashed, near zero. And how is that not going to impact your average Russian citizen. They are the ones ultimately, I mean there's obviously loss of life, but they are very much paying the price now and very far into the future for this.

J: Well Ev this is clearly a sign of you know a government doing what the government wants to do and the people have nothing to do with it you know. I mean I'm not judging the Russian people at all on any of this. I feel bad for them that they're stuck in this horrible situation. I agree with you Cara, I mean the number one thing here it that that's keeping me awake at night is definitely like you know the people of Ukraine and what what you know could you just imagine having to go through any of that. But my god is their leadership so awesome. Like it is so inspiring to see the global response and to see Ukraine leadership stand up in the absolute face of what I consider to be certain death.

C: Right, saying say like I'm not leaving Kiev, I'm not going anywhere, I'm gonna stand here for my people, with my people and I'm not going to let you make these like what, he literally called Ukrainian, I guess he was referring, Putin was referring to the government, when he said that it was like the nazification of Ukraine. By a Jewish holocaust, like descendant of holocaust survivor, like this is who, what is he doing?

S: Yeah this isn't coming out of nowhere, this is you know the part of the narrative that Putin is promoting but it goes back to Stalin, it goes back to, this is not new at all. So even you know in the early days of the 20th century, you know essentially Russia's had its eyes on Ukraine for a very long time. It wants to absorb Ukraine and make it its own. And that's why there is this denial of the either legitimacy of like an independent Ukraine you know. Even back you know in the in Stalin's days there was a program of the russification of Ukraine, you know they would essentially you know replace you know all the people in power and the intellectuals and everybody with Russians and ban speaking Ukrainian in in schools and you know trying to make like Russian the official language. And of course it didn't work, but that you know, it worked for a while under the soviet union but it you know not past that. So this is a continuation of that and when when Putin says things like you know Ukraine is like part of our culture and our history, and it's not really an independent legitimate you know country of its own. That's what he's referring to that this is what that Russia was trying to make it not a legitimate country. So yeah this isn't there's a lot of, there's a pretty deep historical context there, it kind of makes that what looks like an unhinged rant, at least puts it into context. It's like yeah, he's not just, he's not coming up with the stuff on the fly, this is a long-standing program.

E: He's former KGB, we can't forget that.

C: But it's so dark.

S: Yeah it's very dark.

C: It's very dark, you know what I mean, it's like as practiced as it is, and as much as the sort of rhetoric has been building, I don't think that he has been as, I don't know effective.

E: Oh he underestimated the whole thing I think he didn't, he miscalculated this terribly.

C: Yeah yeah like it's like, he didn't do his due diligence to like get the buy-in first, you know what I mean?

B: Does he care? How much does he even care about all that?

J: Well but it seems...

C: What's gonna happen to him.

E: Cost him a lot of money if he cares about that.

J: I can't interpret this any other way than them thinking that they were going to get this job done in a couple of days, like you know no sweat, no mess.

S: Clearly that was the plan. They're, I've read a lot of military analysis of what's going on and they all start with "military experts are baffled" you know by Russia's tactics here because it sounds like they were just going to sweep in, expect no resistance, take over Kiev in 48 hours, replace the government and it's done, right? That was their plan and they were completely you know shocked by the resistance that they met and now the Ukrainian military and the you know civilian militias have had a chance to dig in, erect defenses and get needed supplies.

C: And like the entire EU, everybody's backing them.

S: Yeah so now the question is how─

B: In what way though.

C: Financially and with weapons.

S: With weapons. How desperate is Putin going to get. Because he's not going to just lay down and take a loss here. He you know now that the next step is to do what he's done like in Georgia and Syria, is able to start carpet bombing cities.

C: I mean but that's the thing, I feel like, isn't there already some evidence pointing to the fact that he's like committing war crimes?

S: Yes so there are─

E: Yeah oh yeah I think so.

S: So there are accusations of him using weapons that are banned and not supposed to be used, especially against civilians and targeting civilians but it's you know it's fog of war and all that. It's hard to say.

C: But ultimately let's say that he does have to back down, let's say that like you know this is a failed military operation, what is the, what's the outcome of that, is there a way for Putin to face charges, is there a way for Putin to be I don't know, I mean if he is found to commit war crimes.

E: An international court could fine him couldn't they?

S: Again we're not experts on this guys, we're not politicians and everything we're just we're trying to digest we're reading in the news. My understanding is that Russia's not part of the international court system, like, so he's outside of it, so it's questionable from what I've read whether or not he could be held accountable by any international court.

C: Or if he would even go, if you'd be like you couldn't make me.

E: Of course he wouldn't no─

C: Yeah exactly.

E: ─he would ignore it obviously but I mean forget him traveling anywhere outside of Russia now, you know I mean.

S: Strategically he lost already, I mean the fact that Germany completely reversed their post cold war policy, and they're like okay we're going to double our military spending and we're going to give weapons to Ukraine, you know like essentially Putin has accomplished for the US in days what we have been unable to accomplish in years. It totally backfired.

J: Can you say that again. That that felt so good.

C: And not just for the US but for for Europe.

S: Yeah meaning for NATO, US's goals for NATO, like NATO, again I think Putin was clearly counting on NATO collapsing. And instead he has unified NATO and you know NATO is now stronger, more unified, more determined and it's, and it's showing in very concrete policy, such as you know Germany's reversal. So he's got to be, he's got to be feeling the hurt you know in terms of that. But again it's what, are we on day six or seven, it's still early days, a lot is going to determine on how long NATO and the west can sustain what we're doing. It's going to be, so we're sort of, we call this bluff we're sort of winning the game of chicken, so far, and now it's a matter of who's going to have the endurance. Are we going to be able to bite the bullet, you know like when people start paying more at the pump, how much, are they going to be like okay I'll do that for NATO and Ukraine and to stick it to Putin. Or are they going to be like, this is, increasing crazy, I can't pay 20 cents more for a gallon of gasoline, who's responsible for this, we have to end this right now. So it depends on how, you know again I'm very emboldened by how the world has reacted so far. And now we have to sustain it, you know.

C: That's never easy.

S: Never easy, we have to have more endurance than Putin and the Russians do, in this, or he will be proven correct in the long term. You know if we if we eventually tire of these, the downside of the sanctions for us you know. And Europe's going to feel it more than America is. Gas is still like you know pretty cheap in the united states─

E: Compare it with other countries.

S: ─compared to the rest of the world, compared to historically. I mean you know it's, we are so spoiled in terms of the cost of our gas. And Europe pays a lot more than we do and they are way more dependent on Russian fossil fuel.

C: We did just along though with a lot of other countries open up a lot of our reserves, right?

S: Yeah but that's very temporary, that's like, from what I read it's like that was, oh that was 12 hours worth of gasoline you know.

C: Oh really oh god.

S: It's yeah I mean it's like days, it's insignificant compared to, because we consume so much.

C: Which is like helpful if this thing you know, if this thing doesn't.

S: That was symbolic, releasing a little bit from the strategic reserves was more symbolic than anything.

C: I see.

S: You know but long term, but here's the thing, you know again I'm reading early reports that Germany's like maybe we can't close down all of our nuclear power plants, maybe we should reopen a couple of the ones─

J: This is amazing.

S: ─if they're not getting natural gas through the Nordstream 2 pipeline from from Russia they have no choice, you know they have to, I may have to just keep nuclear going for 20 years until they really build out, you know their renewable infrastructure enough that they─

E: Including new nuclear.

S: ─ independent of Russian gas, you know that's just the way it is. So again, if they can, hopefully we can turn this into a greater push for oil independence. Meaning, burning less fossil fuel, you know, that would be a good outcome.

C: Oh it's so sad though that is such a fundamental part of this very basic human conflict. Is these financial incentives, these economic incentives. And and I'm glad that this is you know the diplomacy I guess that we're utilizing because I actually think in the long run it reduces the cost on human life. But it's just it's so sad, when I really think about war, and the cost of war, and what are we accomplishing here?

S: So the I think one of the more bizarre aspects of this whole thing was the head of Roscosmos essentially threatening to crash the ISS in retaliation to to American and European sanctions.

C: Right like onto the US like crashing onto the US.

S: Like come on, yeah so yeah it's not going to hit us, it's going to hit either US or Europe, maybe it'll hit china, how's that going to work out for you?

E: Smacks of desperate.

S: NASA responded just by saying, everything's fine you know, we're, we continue to work normally with all of our partners, including Russia on the ISS. They basically just completely downplayed it, essentially calling his bluff on.

E: Right another bluff call.

S: But also like the ISS is in no immediate danger of de-orbiting you know without Russian engines correcting its orbit. It would take at least a couple of years. And you know we have the ability to get up there with our own craft, so we would figure something out in the meantime if Russia did decide to pull out of the ISS abruptly.

C: And of course Roscosmos is you know pulling all of their personnel and halting all of their operations both in Kazakhstan at Baikonur and also I think right now in in French Guiana. The two places where Arianespace launches Soyuz. But do we do we need Soyuz? Like it's helpful is it the only way?

S: Not anymore because we have─

C: Exactly.

S: ─dragon crew, yeah, SpaceX.

'C: Yeah so we've got American rockets and American launch sites. So we're not, it's not like you know, it may delay the Galileo satellites that were scheduled to launch there in April you know because that's right around the corner. But I don't think in the long term cutting off that utilization would really affect. I don't know, it seems like a weird diplomatic move.

S: It is sad too because the ISS was a symbol of international cooperation which stood above politics and above this sort of thing dragging the ISS immediately into this conflict was a low blow.

C: I know can you imagine being a cosmonaut on the ISS right now?

S: Yeah, there's two of them out there.

C: Yeah and they're like but I didn't say that, that was that was that was the dude back home, right, like, we don't buy in to this.

B: Imagine the awkward looks on the space station.

E: [inaudible]

J: Talk about taking your ball off the playing field like, we're going to crash the space station on you─

S: Screw you guys I'm going home.

J: ─I know but think about that that has nothing has ever been uttered like that before, like it's just insane.

C: Well it's very cold war isn't it it's, very like it's such a game of chicken.

S: All right well this is obviously a rapidly evolving story, the thing is by the time this show airs it's going to be a very different situation. Remember we're talking, we're recording this on Tuesday, we say it at the top of the show. Some people forget, like we got emailed last week about "hey why didn't you talk about Ukraine?", because that happened after we recorded the show. You know just remember to listen to the date we record at the at the top and stuff happens you know in the, during the post-production time. But we'll we'll probably mention this in the future, again I'm sure we'll have George on at some point to talk about it as well give his perspective since he is Ukrainian.

E: And it's a good reminder to tune in to us live on Fridays five o'clock Eastern Time for our shows because we did speak about it then.

S: We did, we did speak about it on a Friday, absolutely.

E: Yes, join us on Fridays.

News Items

S:

B:

C:

J:

E:

(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

S: Alright. Let's get to some news items.

Quantum Gravity Gradiometer (16:07)

• Sensor breakthrough paves way for groundbreaking map of world under Earth surface

S: Bob, you're going to start with this quantum "gravity-ometeor" thing. (Evan laughs)

Sea Level Rise (29:57)

• Sea Level Rise Will Be Catastrophic—and Unequal

NASA Innovative Projects (43:38)

• NASA Funding Innovative Projects

Biological Sex (1:00:45)

• Not everyone is male or female – the growing controversy over sex designation

"Habitables" & Who's That Noisy? (1:28:47)

Answer to previous Noisy:

Red-bellied Piranha being held out of water

New Noisy (1:35:43)

[Series of human-sounding "ehh"s]

J: ... If you have an idea of what this Noisy is, or if you heard something cool this week, all you've got to do: email me at WTN@theskepticsguide.org.

Science or Fiction (1:36:20)

Theme: Ukraine Item #1: Ukraine produces more sunflowers seeds than the rest of the world combined. Item #2: Ukrainians rarely smile in public, and in fact would find it rude if you smiled at them. Item #3: The world’s deepest metro station is in Kyiv, Arsenalna station at 105.5 meters.

Answer	Item
Fiction	More sunflower seeds
Science	Ukrainians rarely smile
Science	Deepest metro station

Host	Result
Steve	sweep

Rogue	Guess
Cara	Ukrainians rarely smile
Bob	Ukrainians rarely smile
Jay	Deepest metro station
Evan	Ukrainians rarely smile

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:44:52)

Keep your identity separate from your opinions. [Your opinions] are objects in a box you carry with you and should be easily replaceable if it turns out they're no good. If you think that the opinions in the box are who you are, then you'll cling to them despite any evidence to the contrary. Bottom line, if you want to always be right, you need to always be prepared to change your mind.

– CGP Grey, American-Irish educational YouTuber and podcaster

Signoff (1:46:35)

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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