SGU Episode 859: Difference between revisions
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'''E:''' Good evening folks! ''(applause)''--> | '''E:''' Good evening folks! ''(applause)''--> | ||
10.16 18.32 '''S:''' Hello and welcome to the Skeptics Guide to the Universe. | |||
18.32 23.64 '''S:''' Today is Saturday, November 20th, 2021, and this is your host, Stephen Novella. | |||
23.64 33.24 '''S:''' Joining me this week are Bob Novella, | |||
'''B:''' Hey everybody. | |||
33.24 37.04 '''S:''' Cara Santa Maria, | |||
'''C:''' Howdy. | |||
37.04 40.88 '''S:''' Jay Novella, | |||
'''J:''' Hey guys. | |||
40.88 45.56 '''S:''' Evan Bernstein, | |||
'''E:''' I love Fort Collins. | |||
45.56 48.20 '''S:''' And we have a special guest on this episode, George Hrab. | |||
48.20 49.20 '''S:''' George, welcome back. | |||
49.20 50.20 '''GH:''' Hi, Joan Collins. | |||
50.20 54.08 '''GH:''' Am I still in the special guest zone? | |||
54.08 56.72 '''GH:''' Am I still, am I special guest zoned? | |||
56.72 61.32 '''GH:''' I keep sending flowers, I keep going on dates with you guys, and I'm still in the special | |||
61.32 63.96 '''S:''' guest zone. So what's between in every episode and the special guest? | |||
63.96 64.96 '''S:''' What's in between? | |||
64.96 65.96 '''GH:''' I don't know. | |||
65.96 66.96 '''GH:''' An honorary rogue. | |||
66.96 67.96 '''GH:''' A new, I don't know if I'm that, but maybe, yeah. | |||
67.96 68.96 '''GH:''' A regular? | |||
68.96 69.96 '''C:''' A regular guest? | |||
69.96 70.96 '''C:''' A regular guest. | |||
70.96 71.96 '''C:''' A regular guest? | |||
71.96 72.96 '''C:''' I think a regular guest. | |||
72.96 73.96 '''C:''' A regular contributor? | |||
73.96 74.96 '''GH:''' A regular guest. | |||
74.96 75.96 '''GH:''' Or unleaded guest, maybe. | |||
75.96 76.96 '''GH:''' Uninvited guest? | |||
76.96 77.96 '''GH:''' Uninvited guest. | |||
77.96 78.96 '''GH:''' A crasher. | |||
78.96 79.96 '''S:''' For most of that year. | |||
79.96 88.36 '''S:''' Yeah, George is frequently on this show, and more recently because we're doing the extravaganza together and we're on these trips, so obviously he's here. | |||
88.36 97.56 '''S:''' And I wanted to say that we are live from Fort Collins, Colorado. | |||
97.56 100.64 '''S:''' So we're still in Colorado in podcast time. | |||
100.64 101.64 '''S:''' We're still out of breath. | |||
101.64 105.48 '''S:''' We haven't made it yet to the altitude, but we're getting there. | |||
105.48 106.48 '''S:''' How are you guys liking Colorado? | |||
106.48 107.48 '''S:''' We haven't seen a lot of it. | |||
107.48 108.48 '''S:''' Oh, you're asking us. | |||
108.48 109.48 '''C:''' Yeah, I'm asking you guys. | |||
109.48 110.48 '''B:''' I love it. | |||
110.48 111.48 '''B:''' It's beautiful. | |||
111.48 112.48 '''C:''' Yeah, it's gorgeous, right? | |||
112.48 113.48 '''C:''' So gorgeous. | |||
113.48 114.48 '''C:''' This is your first time here. | |||
114.48 115.48 '''E:''' This is my first time? | |||
115.48 116.48 '''E:''' Mine too. | |||
116.48 117.48 '''E:''' Mine too. | |||
117.48 118.48 '''E:''' Not mine. | |||
118.48 119.48 '''E:''' I used to live here. | |||
119.48 121.56 '''E:''' I lived here for one year when I was about 12 years old. | |||
121.56 124.92 '''E:''' So yeah, I've gotten to see much of Colorado in my one year here. | |||
124.92 127.68 '''E:''' We went practically everywhere, which was great. | |||
127.68 128.68 '''E:''' It's good to be back. | |||
128.68 129.68 '''J:''' I'm itchy when I'm here. | |||
129.68 130.68 '''J:''' What do you mean? | |||
130.68 131.68 '''J:''' Is anybody that lives here itchy because it's so dry? | |||
131.68 132.68 '''C:''' It's the dryness. | |||
132.68 133.68 '''C:''' Oh, like physically itchy? | |||
133.68 134.68 '''C:''' Absolutely. | |||
134.68 135.68 '''S:''' Oh, okay. | |||
135.68 136.68 '''S:''' I'm scratching. | |||
136.68 142.08 '''S:''' George, have you ever been to Colorado before? | |||
142.08 145.12 '''GH:''' I've never been to Colorado before, but it's lovely. | |||
145.12 147.40 '''GH:''' I think Fort Collins is so much nicer than Denver. | |||
147.40 152.40 '''GH:''' It's no contest. | |||
152.40 156.92 '''GH:''' So on the way here, we somehow missed like three exits. | |||
156.92 157.92 '''GH:''' What happened, Jay? | |||
157.92 158.92 '''GH:''' We haven't even talked about what happened. | |||
158.92 160.72 '''GH:''' Jay was driving the van and what happened? | |||
160.72 163.92 '''J:''' Steve and I were in a heated discussion. | |||
163.92 164.92 '''J:''' For 50 miles. | |||
164.92 165.92 '''J:''' Yeah, for the entire ride. | |||
165.92 166.92 '''B:''' There was no heat in that van. | |||
166.92 167.92 '''B:''' I don't know what the heating was. | |||
167.92 168.92 '''B:''' I was cold. | |||
168.92 175.16 '''J:''' But yeah, it's so funny because I'm freakishly looking at my phone to make sure we're on track. | |||
175.16 180.16 '''J:''' And then right at the inflection point when we were, it was a straight shot all the way up from Denver. | |||
180.16 183.72 '''J:''' Steve and I got to a point where it got a little like we were like this. | |||
183.72 185.28 '''J:''' We were fighting. | |||
185.28 186.28 '''J:''' It's okay. | |||
186.28 189.28 '''J:''' And I missed it, man. | |||
189.28 192.64 '''GH:''' All of a sudden, we run a highway, we pull a U-turn. | |||
192.64 198.84 '''GH:''' Now normally when you pull a U-turn on a highway, you go back to the previous exit because that's the one you've missed. | |||
198.84 201.72 '''GH:''' So we go back to the previous exit, we keep driving. | |||
201.72 204.32 '''GH:''' We go, we pass another exit, we keep driving. | |||
204.32 205.88 '''GH:''' We pass a third exit. | |||
205.88 207.96 '''GH:''' We're like, how many exits did you miss? | |||
207.96 208.96 '''GH:''' That was some discussion. | |||
208.96 212.56 '''GH:''' It was the fourth exit we finally turned. | |||
212.56 214.96 '''J:''' That's weird because there were more exits, I guess, on that side. | |||
214.96 215.96 '''J:''' Oh, sure. | |||
215.96 216.96 '''GH:''' That's how roads work. | |||
216.96 217.96 '''GH:''' That's how highways work. | |||
217.96 221.96 '''S:''' It's just, sorry, you can't go to that side of the state. | |||
221.96 226.52 '''GH:''' It's just, it's awesome. | |||
226.52 237.76 '''S:''' So we were talking on the last show we recorded, the one before Thanksgiving about Russia blowing up a satellite and the implications of that, the Kessler syndrome where it might flood low earth orbit with debris. | |||
237.76 240.70 '''S:''' So we lose basically the ability to have satellites. | |||
240.70 242.24 '''S:''' So this morning we're chatting. | |||
242.24 244.24 '''S:''' What would that really do? | |||
244.24 245.24 '''S:''' What would it do? | |||
245.24 248.84 '''S:''' What would the effect on our lives be if we had no satellites? | |||
248.84 250.80 '''GH:''' Like all of a sudden, like within a week. | |||
250.80 253.44 '''S:''' Within a relatively short period of time. | |||
253.44 254.68 '''GH:''' How much would that affect us? | |||
254.68 255.68 '''S:''' Yeah. | |||
255.68 256.68 '''S:''' The answer is a lot. | |||
256.68 257.68 '''S:''' It would affect us a lot. | |||
257.68 264.44 '''S:''' But we expanded the conversation to, we thought we always like to start our live shows with a light and funny conversation. | |||
264.44 269.44 '''S:''' So we thought we'd talk about the end of civilization. | |||
269.44 273.64 '''S:''' Just from a lighthearted perspective. | |||
273.64 279.48 '''S:''' How fragile is our modern civilization, our modern society? | |||
279.48 288.40 '''S:''' Could something like a CME, which is a coronal mass ejection, another way that we could wipe out our satellite infrastructure and more, our grids could go down. | |||
288.40 291.00 '''GH:''' Explain what that is real quick, just so if you don't know what a CME is. | |||
291.00 292.00 '''B:''' Coronal mass ejection. | |||
292.00 299.32 '''B:''' It's a bundle of energy that's emitted from the sun that is quite gargantuan that it could encompass the earth and beyond. | |||
299.32 306.96 '''B:''' And if we get hit with it, it basically would just overload and fry circuits everywhere if it was of sufficient level, which is inevitable actually. | |||
306.96 309.12 '''B:''' It's like getting hit by an asteroid. | |||
309.12 310.12 '''B:''' Is it going to happen? | |||
310.12 311.12 '''B:''' It's like when it's going to happen. | |||
311.12 312.12 '''S:''' So this will happen. | |||
312.12 318.16 '''S:''' And it's going to happen on like a timescale of decades, not millennia. | |||
318.16 319.36 '''S:''' We're getting hit with them all the time. | |||
319.36 321.16 '''S:''' It's just a matter of how strong they are. | |||
321.16 322.84 '''E:''' Didn't we dodge one in 2012? | |||
322.84 324.96 '''S:''' We missed one by about a week. | |||
324.96 327.12 '''S:''' Yeah, like we just missed the Earth. | |||
327.12 329.16 '''S:''' So it's quite scary actually. | |||
329.16 335.34 '''S:''' At one point we did a deep dive on the question of what actually would a CME do? | |||
335.34 338.92 '''S:''' And the answer is nobody knows. | |||
338.92 346.36 '''S:''' We really don't know because we've never had this level of infrastructure when we got hit by a really powerful CME. | |||
346.36 350.60 '''S:''' There have been moderate ones that knocked out local grids like Canada got hit. | |||
350.60 352.20 '''S:''' Quebec, 1989. | |||
352.20 357.96 '''J:''' So visually the aurora borealis, all the auroras are going to light up like Christmas trees. | |||
357.96 362.28 '''S:''' It would be like that, but down to Florida, right? | |||
362.28 365.56 '''S:''' You know, depending on how big it is. | |||
365.56 372.12 '''S:''' We have seen CMEs that missed the Earth, but they were big enough that if they hit the Earth they would have fried everything. | |||
372.12 373.44 '''S:''' So anyway, it's going to happen. | |||
373.44 374.44 '''S:''' It's going to happen. | |||
374.44 376.00 '''GH:''' We were asking what would be worse? | |||
376.00 379.20 '''GH:''' Would the Kessler thing, would no satellites be worse or would the CME be worse? | |||
379.20 383.24 '''GH:''' And Steve, right away you said Kessler's worse. | |||
383.24 387.60 '''S:''' Because it could take a hundred years before we could occupy low Earth orbit again. | |||
387.60 390.52 '''S:''' So you're saying if we scattered low Earth orbit with debris. | |||
390.52 392.96 '''S:''' It can get so bad that it's done for decades. | |||
392.96 393.96 '''S:''' Generations, generations. | |||
393.96 397.76 '''B:''' No communication satellites. | |||
397.76 398.76 '''B:''' No GPS. | |||
398.76 399.76 '''B:''' No weather prediction. | |||
399.76 404.52 '''B:''' I mean, we would be so isolated and society would change. | |||
404.52 405.52 '''B:''' Absolutely. | |||
405.52 408.90 '''C:''' So you're talking like the difference between like a Fukushima and like a Chernobyl. | |||
408.90 413.56 '''C:''' Like in one of them you can just rebuild and in the other like you can't go back there for a while. | |||
413.56 414.56 '''C:''' Yeah, right. | |||
414.56 415.88 '''C:''' Like you can't, like low Earth orbit is cluttered. | |||
415.88 416.88 '''C:''' We can't put satellites back. | |||
416.88 418.88 '''S:''' CME is one and done. | |||
418.88 424.24 '''S:''' But the big thing about the CME is that it could take 10 to 20 years to rebuild the infrastructure. | |||
424.24 425.24 '''S:''' Right. | |||
425.24 426.24 '''S:''' Yeah. | |||
426.24 427.24 '''S:''' We don't have the giant transformers that would get planned. | |||
427.24 431.88 '''GH:''' That's like turning off the Earth's electricity like that. | |||
431.88 435.80 '''GH:''' I mean, that to me feels like you can't, it's really hard to come back from that. | |||
435.80 436.80 '''J:''' Yeah. | |||
436.80 439.72 '''J:''' Well, I mean, that could be like pandemonium craziness. | |||
439.72 440.72 '''C:''' Well, it would be. | |||
440.72 442.84 '''C:''' Like we saw what happened in Texas over winter. | |||
442.84 447.20 '''C:''' We saw, like we've all been there when there has been a blackout, a brownout or something and people die. | |||
447.20 449.20 '''C:''' And people, you know, people die. | |||
449.20 458.52 '''GH:''' We were saying about toilet paper, like because there was this slight, people were pooping at home more and that totally messed up toilet paper distribution. | |||
458.52 469.08 '''GH:''' Like that one factor because people were taking two more craps at home than they had been a month previous that messed up the entire delicate balance of the toilet paper infrastructure. | |||
469.08 473.12 '''GH:''' We did learn one cool thing because we were wondering if cell phones use satellites. | |||
473.12 474.12 '''GH:''' Right. | |||
474.12 479.40 '''GH:''' And we were like, okay, because they must be using, they go to the tower and the tower goes to the satellite to other towers. | |||
479.40 480.60 '''GH:''' And it turns out, no, they don't. | |||
480.60 482.00 '''GH:''' They go tower to tower to tower. | |||
482.00 485.76 '''GH:''' So we would still have cell phones with the Kessler, which is huge. | |||
485.76 491.60 '''S:''' Maybe not with the CME, but with the Kessler, we would still have our smartphones, which although, because think about that. | |||
491.60 492.92 '''S:''' Think about no cell phones. | |||
492.92 498.20 '''S:''' That means like our entire infrastructure of money transfer would go down. | |||
498.20 500.52 '''S:''' We'd be back to using coins and cash. | |||
500.52 501.52 '''GH:''' Leather pelt. | |||
501.52 509.12 '''B:''' Steve, I think it comes down to a couple of things because I think with the CME, I mean, with the CME, I think we could see a tremendous amount of deaths. | |||
509.12 515.04 '''B:''' I mean, scores of millions, if not a billion people, because no electricity means a lot of crazy, horrible things. | |||
515.04 517.96 '''GH:''' Every person in the hospital that's on a respirator or any kind of... | |||
517.96 518.96 '''C:''' Right. | |||
518.96 519.96 '''C:''' But the Kessler... | |||
519.96 520.96 '''C:''' It would be heat. | |||
520.96 521.96 '''C:''' It's like basic things. | |||
521.96 527.16 '''B:''' But the Kessler syndrome effect would be, I mean, you'd still have everything you have on it. | |||
527.16 528.16 '''B:''' You just can't communicate. | |||
528.16 529.16 '''B:''' You can't use so many things that weren't... | |||
529.16 531.56 '''C:''' So it would be like it was several years ago. | |||
531.56 535.60 '''S:''' Well, it would be like going back about 30 or 40 years. | |||
535.60 537.08 '''C:''' But the problem is it would be instant. | |||
537.08 538.08 '''C:''' Yes. | |||
538.08 539.08 '''C:''' Right. | |||
539.08 540.08 '''C:''' And we have systems in place that... | |||
540.08 541.56 '''C:''' Because you get dependent on your technology. | |||
541.56 542.56 '''C:''' Yeah. | |||
542.56 543.56 '''C:''' Right. | |||
543.56 544.56 '''S:''' But ultimately, we're not. | |||
544.56 545.56 '''S:''' So how long would it take us to harden the grid? | |||
545.56 548.96 '''S:''' I mean, hardening the grid, I don't think there's anything in the infrastructure plan on that, to be honest with you. | |||
548.96 551.96 '''B:''' I mean, the military's got lots of hardened electronics. | |||
551.96 553.72 '''S:''' Hardened is relative. | |||
553.72 564.28 '''S:''' What that means is that they're engineered so that they can withstand things like a CME or like the military does it because you get the same effect from a nuclear weapon. | |||
564.28 565.28 '''S:''' Nuclear weapon. | |||
565.28 570.80 '''S:''' So if we have nuclear bombs going off, it gives the electromagnetic pulse, which has the same effect. | |||
570.80 574.24 '''S:''' It induces a current, which is like such a current that it would fry. | |||
574.24 576.72 '''S:''' It would literally melt the electronics. | |||
576.72 577.72 '''S:''' That's what happened. | |||
577.72 579.12 '''S:''' So it's not like you can repair it. | |||
579.12 580.12 '''S:''' It's melted. | |||
580.12 581.16 '''S:''' You've got to replace it. | |||
581.16 586.16 '''S:''' And so hardening it means you engineer it in such a way that that wouldn't happen. | |||
586.16 587.72 '''J:''' You insulate it so that energy can't... | |||
587.72 588.72 '''J:''' It's insulated. | |||
588.72 589.72 '''B:''' But what if you're in a Faraday cage, though? | |||
589.72 592.80 '''B:''' I mean, how impervious is the Faraday cage? | |||
592.80 596.16 '''S:''' Well, if it's perfect, it's completely impervious. | |||
596.16 599.24 '''S:''' But you can't have all of your electronic equipment in a Faraday cage. | |||
599.24 601.92 '''B:''' No, we can't have critical components, critical infrastructure in Faraday. | |||
601.92 603.92 '''C:''' But also then you can't use them. | |||
603.92 604.92 '''C:''' Right. | |||
604.92 607.40 '''S:''' Like they're unusable while they're in the cage. | |||
607.40 608.56 '''S:''' Like for example, the grid. | |||
608.56 610.26 '''S:''' The grid is basically wires. | |||
610.26 612.32 '''S:''' Those wires would have induced current. | |||
612.32 613.72 '''S:''' You can't put them in a Faraday cage. | |||
613.72 614.72 '''GH:''' No, no, no. | |||
614.72 619.24 '''GH:''' And if you fry capacitors, there's no backup supply of capacitors and insulators. | |||
619.24 621.24 '''GH:''' We don't have a ton just of them. | |||
621.24 622.24 '''GH:''' They're not just sitting around. | |||
622.24 624.12 '''GH:''' They're like, you've got to build all this stuff anew. | |||
624.12 625.12 '''S:''' Yeah. | |||
625.12 631.32 '''S:''' So the biggest transformers, if they got fried, we don't have a back catalog of them. | |||
631.32 632.88 '''S:''' They could take years to build. | |||
632.88 636.08 '''S:''' And it could take decades to replace them. | |||
636.08 638.92 '''J:''' That's if the factory wasn't fried to the back. | |||
638.92 640.20 '''S:''' That's if one goes down. | |||
640.20 643.52 '''S:''' If the world's down, then what are we, back to horse and buggy at that? | |||
643.52 644.52 '''S:''' No. | |||
644.52 653.00 '''S:''' So one thing I think the pandemic brought to light, although I don't know that we really absorbed this lesson collectively, is how fragile the system is. | |||
653.00 658.20 '''S:''' As George was saying, we're pooping at home slightly more, and then there's no toilet paper in the store. | |||
658.20 659.20 '''S:''' That's literally what happened. | |||
659.20 664.16 '''C:''' Well, really what happened is that we were panicked that we would have to be pooping at home. | |||
664.16 665.16 '''GH:''' But imagine the panic. | |||
665.16 666.16 '''GH:''' But, Cara, that's really not true. | |||
666.16 667.16 '''S:''' Imagine the panic. | |||
667.16 668.16 '''S:''' Really? | |||
668.16 669.16 '''S:''' That's really not true. | |||
669.16 670.16 '''S:''' It was not due to hoarding and demand. | |||
670.16 671.44 '''S:''' It was literally due to the supply chain. | |||
671.44 673.32 '''S:''' There's like 80%, 90% of it. | |||
673.32 674.32 '''S:''' Only? | |||
674.32 675.32 '''S:''' 80%, 90% was the supply chain. | |||
675.32 676.32 '''S:''' Wow. | |||
676.32 681.76 '''S:''' You have a commercial toilet paper supply line and a domestic toilet paper supply line. | |||
681.76 682.76 '''S:''' One of them is cardboard. | |||
682.76 683.76 '''S:''' Right. | |||
683.76 684.76 '''S:''' And then the demand shifted. | |||
684.76 685.76 '''S:''' Demand shifted. | |||
685.76 686.76 '''S:''' To domestic. | |||
686.76 691.00 '''S:''' And it completely... The same thing was true of food. | |||
691.00 698.40 '''S:''' So what percentage of the... like an average American, what percentage of our calories do we get from outside the home, like restaurants or whatever? | |||
698.40 699.40 '''S:''' What do you think? | |||
699.40 700.40 '''S:''' Or work or... yeah. | |||
700.40 702.64 '''S:''' You mean not the stuff we buy at a store and bring home? | |||
702.64 703.64 '''S:''' Yeah, yeah. | |||
703.64 704.64 '''S:''' 30%, 40%. | |||
704.64 705.64 '''S:''' It's a little bit more than 50%. | |||
705.64 706.64 '''S:''' 50%, 50%. | |||
706.64 707.64 '''S:''' Yeah. | |||
707.64 708.64 '''S:''' About half. | |||
708.64 709.64 '''S:''' Yeah, so about half. | |||
709.64 712.40 '''S:''' About half is food we bought and brought into our home and prepared in the home. | |||
712.40 715.38 '''S:''' The other half is at a restaurant or whatever. | |||
715.38 719.00 '''S:''' During the pandemic, the at-home food went to 70%. | |||
719.00 721.68 '''S:''' So it went from 50-50 to 70-30. | |||
721.68 725.12 '''S:''' And that also screwed our supply lines. | |||
725.12 733.16 '''S:''' Now we're having inflation and backlogs because people are buying more stuff and fewer experiences. | |||
733.16 735.68 '''S:''' So we're going to movies less and buying TVs more. | |||
735.68 739.64 '''S:''' And that totally blog jammed our supply line. | |||
739.64 747.60 '''S:''' And that's from a pandemic, which was disruptive, but nothing like a CME or a Kessler syndrome. | |||
747.60 749.16 '''S:''' It would be 100 times worse. | |||
749.16 751.30 '''J:''' So really, there's no other way to look at it. | |||
751.30 752.30 '''J:''' We would be totaled. | |||
752.30 753.30 '''S:''' Yeah. | |||
753.30 754.92 '''S:''' There's no question that we'd be totaled. | |||
754.92 761.16 '''S:''' The question is how far would we fall and how long would it take to come back? | |||
761.16 768.84 '''GH:''' I'm just wondering how long before leather and football pads for that whole, not Blade Runner, but the road warrior scenario. | |||
768.84 770.24 '''GH:''' Are we talking months? | |||
770.24 777.40 '''GH:''' Are we talking years before roving gangs of, bring me the gas, that kind of thing? | |||
777.40 778.64 '''J:''' I love that character. | |||
778.64 783.88 '''J:''' I think it's scary to think how much of our human knowledge is stored. | |||
783.88 786.04 '''J:''' This might sound ridiculous, but just even on YouTube. | |||
786.04 791.60 '''J:''' And if we have a CME, will that fry hard drives, will that make it so all that data is gone? | |||
791.60 794.32 '''S:''' If it's powerful enough, it's all about the strength of the CME. | |||
794.32 798.20 '''J:''' So we need, we're watching, what should we call it? | |||
798.20 800.36 '''J:''' The Isaac Asimov series. | |||
800.36 801.36 '''J:''' We need a foundation. | |||
801.36 802.36 '''S:''' We should have a backup. | |||
802.36 805.00 '''S:''' Well, that's why we have things like the seed vault. | |||
805.00 807.10 '''S:''' There are actually preparations for that. | |||
807.10 809.88 '''S:''' So one question is what do we do about it? | |||
809.88 813.48 '''S:''' It's interesting the notion of how will people respond? | |||
813.48 816.44 '''S:''' How will people respond in a serious collapse? | |||
816.44 818.16 '''S:''' CME wipes out the grid. | |||
818.16 819.16 '''S:''' Nobody has any power. | |||
819.16 820.16 '''S:''' What do we do? | |||
820.16 821.64 '''S:''' How do people react? | |||
821.64 825.96 '''S:''' The initial response is for people to be neighborly, to be people to help each other out. | |||
825.96 826.96 '''S:''' We're all in this together. | |||
826.96 827.96 '''S:''' Let's get through it. | |||
827.96 833.92 '''S:''' The longer you go, though, without services, the more road warrior it gets. | |||
833.92 846.32 '''S:''' And then at the two, three month point when people have exhausted their supplies and FEMA doesn't have enough to go around and it really starts to get desperate, it completely flips. | |||
846.32 855.08 '''S:''' So the question is could we recover before we get to the, before that window where things really go off the cliff? | |||
855.08 856.08 '''S:''' And who knows? | |||
856.08 858.48 '''S:''' We'll know when it happens, right? | |||
858.48 859.74 '''S:''' Is the question. | |||
859.74 864.72 '''S:''' So how can we prep, not to use the word prep and suddenly you're a prepper, right? | |||
864.72 869.68 '''S:''' But how can we prepare to mitigate that to some extent? | |||
869.68 871.00 '''S:''' Buy more toilet paper? | |||
871.00 872.24 '''S:''' Well, that's part of it. | |||
872.24 887.66 '''S:''' So FEMA, you know, who's like our disaster preparedness organization, FEMA's recommendation that is that you have everything you need in your home so that you could survive independently with enough food for everybody for three days. | |||
887.66 888.66 '''S:''' That's their recommendation. | |||
888.66 889.66 '''S:''' Just three days? | |||
889.66 890.66 '''S:''' I know. | |||
890.66 891.66 '''S:''' Three days? | |||
891.66 892.66 '''S:''' I thought you were going to say three months. | |||
892.66 893.66 '''S:''' No, it's three days. | |||
893.66 901.56 '''S:''' The reason that that's their recommendation is because that's based on the premise that it will take them three days to stand up their support. | |||
901.56 904.46 '''S:''' But they rarely are able to do that is the thing. | |||
904.46 907.44 '''S:''' So the criticism is like the three days is a pipe dream. | |||
907.44 911.44 '''C:''' I think that's also based on the most likely scenario. | |||
911.44 916.04 '''C:''' So like I have, you know, a disaster kit in my home. | |||
916.04 919.68 '''C:''' For me, I live alone because I live in earthquake country. | |||
919.68 926.56 '''C:''' And so if there is an earthquake and I can't get out of my house or the water gets shut off or I don't have electricity, I'll be okay. | |||
926.56 929.86 '''C:''' And the idea is that within three days, yes, there may be shelters available. | |||
929.86 935.20 '''C:''' Or like in a tornado situation, in a whatever, this is not FEMA's CME recommendation. | |||
935.20 938.24 '''C:''' Like for when civilization collapses, three days of food will be fine. | |||
938.24 941.48 '''C:''' Like it's, you know, it's like the zombie apocalypse is different than what most of | |||
941.48 953.12 '''S:''' us should have to think about. That is their regional, temporary, you know, so like for the Northeast, it would be a major nor'easter where we get snowed in for three days, which literally happened not that many years ago. | |||
953.12 955.00 '''E:''' It literally snowed in for three days. | |||
955.00 956.00 '''E:''' Right. | |||
956.00 960.04 '''S:''' Or tornadoes or earthquake or the local grid goes down. | |||
960.04 963.44 '''B:''' And they're talking about a once in a decade scenario. | |||
963.44 965.48 '''B:''' We're talking about a once in a millennia. | |||
965.48 970.44 '''C:''' These aren't even, but the sad thing is these aren't once in a decade anymore either. | |||
970.44 973.16 '''C:''' Like I have a wildfire scare every season now. | |||
973.16 976.72 '''C:''' There's a legitimate risk that my house will burn down every season. | |||
976.72 977.72 '''C:''' Yeah. | |||
977.72 979.64 '''C:''' I mean, that's, you know, that's just becoming the norm. | |||
979.64 983.08 '''J:''' So the question is, sorry, when you run a scenario like this through your head. | |||
983.08 985.72 '''J:''' And, you know, this happens all the time. | |||
985.72 990.32 '''J:''' You know, there's so many things that we could, the pandemic was like a perfect example of it. | |||
990.32 999.36 '''J:''' You know, it just blows my mind to watch the U.S. government, because this is the country I live in, so I'll pick our government, just watch them sit around and do absolutely nothing. | |||
999.36 1002.60 '''J:''' Like it's as if there wasn't a pandemic. | |||
1002.60 1005.80 '''J:''' It's as if, you know, a coronal mass ejection isn't going to happen. | |||
1005.80 1009.28 '''J:''' Like we could, we should be slowly solving these problems. | |||
1009.28 1010.28 '''C:''' I know. | |||
1010.28 1012.28 '''C:''' I think that a lot more is happening than you're giving credit to. | |||
1012.28 1014.60 '''J:''' But why do you feel that way? | |||
1014.60 1016.92 '''J:''' I have no indication of that. | |||
1016.92 1017.92 '''C:''' Sorry. | |||
1017.92 1021.32 '''C:''' Specifically, you don't think that our government is doing any pandemic preparedness? | |||
1021.32 1025.12 '''J:''' Well, I'm sure that we're stockpiling PPE. | |||
1025.12 1029.60 '''S:''' We have strategic stockpiles of food, fuel. | |||
1029.60 1030.60 '''S:''' We do. | |||
1030.60 1031.60 '''C:''' Is that new? | |||
1031.60 1032.60 '''C:''' Is that new because of the pandemic? | |||
1032.60 1035.16 '''C:''' And FEMA is a massive department that works very hard. | |||
1035.16 1037.52 '''C:''' They just don't have enough resources. | |||
1037.52 1040.56 '''S:''' They have like barely enough resources for like a hurricane. | |||
1040.56 1044.00 '''S:''' But yeah, if there anything bigger than that, they would be instantly involved. | |||
1044.00 1045.00 '''J:''' I hear you. | |||
1045.00 1046.68 '''J:''' I'm happy to change my mind. | |||
1046.68 1055.68 '''J:''' But if we carved out, you know, 10 percent of the military budget and said, we're just going to spend that money on hardening our grid or making FEMA more powerful or, you know. | |||
1055.68 1058.56 '''S:''' We famously collectively do not prepare enough for bad things. | |||
1058.56 1060.12 '''S:''' But even after a bad thing just happened. | |||
1060.12 1066.64 '''C:''' The scary thing is we had a good pandemic plan and we had leadership that was not interested in following our plan. | |||
1066.64 1069.24 '''GH:''' There's more important things like, you know, critical race theory. | |||
1069.24 1070.72 '''GH:''' I mean, way more important. | |||
1070.72 1074.84 '''GH:''' We need to be fighting against the real boogeyman. | |||
1074.84 1077.36 '''S:''' On an individual level, what should we do? | |||
1077.36 1085.48 '''S:''' My approach is I don't consider myself a prepper, but I like to rather than having three days of food in my house, I like to have three weeks of food in my house. | |||
1085.48 1093.08 '''S:''' If everybody did that, that would actually be a really good thing because you would be decompressing the system for everybody if the system gets stressed out. | |||
1093.08 1094.08 '''S:''' And it's not that hard. | |||
1094.08 1095.08 '''C:''' It's not that hard. | |||
1095.08 1097.72 '''C:''' That does assume that you have a house that you can afford to do that. | |||
1097.72 1102.16 '''E:''' The problem is the people in the cities are going to have major problems. | |||
1102.16 1106.12 '''C:''' The haves should do that, but the have nots need the kind of support. | |||
1106.12 1107.12 '''C:''' Absolutely. | |||
1107.12 1108.12 '''C:''' That's exactly it. | |||
1108.12 1111.28 '''S:''' I don't want to be a burden on people who can't afford to do that. | |||
1111.28 1115.08 '''S:''' But it's actually not that expensive either because the kind of food you're going to be storing, first of all, you'll eat it. | |||
1115.08 1116.08 '''S:''' I'm not saying getting MREs. | |||
1116.08 1123.20 '''S:''' I'm just saying just have more dried goods in your home, whatever, and use it. | |||
1123.20 1124.20 '''S:''' You cycle through it. | |||
1124.20 1129.40 '''S:''' You're just stretching your backlog so that it's not like you're out of food in three days. | |||
1129.40 1130.40 '''S:''' You could actually survive. | |||
1130.40 1132.64 '''S:''' You may not be happy about it, but you could survive for a few weeks. | |||
1132.64 1138.04 '''S:''' And again, it helps everybody because now you're not online looking for bread because you've got your dried beans in your pantry. | |||
1138.04 1139.76 '''B:''' And Steve, did you eat those? | |||
1139.76 1141.52 '''B:''' Have you eaten those MREs? | |||
1141.52 1142.52 '''B:''' I had some. | |||
1142.52 1143.52 '''B:''' It was pretty horrible. | |||
1143.52 1144.52 '''B:''' They're horrible. | |||
1144.52 1145.92 '''B:''' I've had some that have been pretty good. | |||
1145.92 1150.36 '''B:''' I guess I didn't taste everything, but the things that I ate were pretty bad. | |||
1150.36 1153.44 '''B:''' But I guess in the apocalypse, I'd be drooling for it. | |||
1153.44 1155.60 '''E:''' You will not be choosy in that scenario. | |||
1155.60 1157.32 '''B:''' Look at that juicy rat. | |||
1157.32 1158.32 '''B:''' That looks good. | |||
1158.32 1159.32 None It's true. | |||
1159.32 1160.32 '''GH:''' It's so not worth it. | |||
1160.32 1161.32 '''GH:''' It's so not worth it. | |||
1161.32 1163.44 '''GH:''' I'm going to do it. | |||
1163.44 1165.68 '''GH:''' What Steve is saying is basically I'm a prepper. | |||
1165.68 1166.68 '''GH:''' He's a prepper. | |||
1166.68 1167.68 '''GH:''' She's a prepper. | |||
1167.68 1168.68 '''GH:''' You're a prepper. | |||
1168.68 1169.68 '''C:''' Wouldn't you like to be a prepper? | |||
1169.68 1170.68 '''C:''' That's it. | |||
1170.68 1171.68 '''S:''' You nailed it, George. | |||
1171.68 1174.68 '''GH:''' That was so worth the wait. | |||
1174.68 1175.68 '''S:''' It was. | |||
1175.68 1182.92 '''S:''' We live in this bubble of the assumption that the infrastructure that we have is going to chug along without disruption. | |||
1182.92 1185.92 '''S:''' We throw a hissy fit when there's the slightest hiccup. | |||
1185.92 1188.76 '''S:''' But it's just inevitable that something much bigger is going to happen. | |||
1188.76 1191.28 '''S:''' We know it is, and we're not prepared for it. | |||
1191.28 1192.28 '''S:''' We're way too short-sighted. | |||
1192.28 1193.28 '''S:''' We're never going to be ready for it. | |||
1193.28 1196.68 '''S:''' We don't have the political will to prepare for it. | |||
1196.68 1206.44 '''S:''' When Ebola hit, the worst Ebola outbreak, the reason why that was the worst Ebola outbreak was because we weren't ready for it, even though we knew it was coming. | |||
1206.44 1207.96 '''S:''' We're like, oh, there's a fire. | |||
1207.96 1208.96 '''S:''' Let's build a firehouse. | |||
1208.96 1212.84 '''S:''' That's what literally... Now it's like, all right, next time we'll be ready, because now we know. | |||
1212.84 1213.84 '''S:''' We're a proactive society. | |||
1213.84 1214.84 '''S:''' We're a proactive society. | |||
1214.84 1219.00 '''S:''' Yeah, we were sort of more ready for the next one, but still nowhere where we need to be. | |||
1219.00 1221.24 '''S:''' The pandemic showed that we weren't where we need to be. | |||
1221.24 1225.84 '''B:''' Anyway- People are going to say, oh, we had a pandemic in 1918, and now in 2020. | |||
1225.84 1227.16 '''B:''' Oh, we've got another century. | |||
1227.16 1228.16 '''B:''' We're good. | |||
1228.16 1231.70 '''B:''' But no, it could be in four years or even sooner. | |||
1231.70 1233.56 '''B:''' We know it's going to be soon. | |||
1233.56 1235.28 '''B:''' What if it's man-made? | |||
1235.28 1236.68 '''B:''' Don't even start me on that one. | |||
1236.68 1237.68 '''B:''' Yeah, it's- | |||
1237.68 1238.68 '''E:''' A lot of scenarios. | |||
1238.68 1242.44 '''S:''' Yeah. I think, yeah, as a society, we need to do better. | |||
1242.44 1243.52 '''S:''' We're not the only ones to think about this. | |||
1243.52 1251.42 '''S:''' There are people who are talking about, the pandemic showed how fragile this system is, how our food system is, et cetera, et cetera. | |||
1251.42 1256.92 '''S:''' There are real plans to make, what's the word they use, more resilient. | |||
1256.92 1259.84 '''S:''' We want to make these supply lines more resilient. | |||
1259.84 1261.44 '''S:''' So it's just a matter of political will. | |||
1261.44 1265.28 '''C:''' Yeah, it's a matter of putting our money where our mouth is, because people are working on this. | |||
1265.28 1269.80 '''C:''' They're working hard on it, and they're like literal heroes that kept us out of the worst of it. | |||
1269.80 1273.24 '''C:''' The problem it wasn't better is because we're not funding them. | |||
1273.24 1274.76 '''E:''' You can also function at the state level too. | |||
1274.76 1276.44 '''E:''' You don't have to rely on the federal system. | |||
1276.44 1281.48 '''E:''' You should also be contacting people in more close to home, local, state level. | |||
1281.48 1282.76 '''S:''' But they are dependent on federal funding. | |||
1282.76 1283.76 '''E:''' I get that. | |||
1283.76 1284.76 '''E:''' Yes. | |||
1284.76 1286.92 '''E:''' Let them take the money and then allow the states to do the prep work for the people. | |||
1286.92 1292.40 '''S:''' And then at the individual level, just make sure you always have toilet paper and dry | |||
1292.40 1296.16 '''J:''' tissues. Everything you need to know, you'll find in zombie movies. | |||
1296.16 1298.36 '''S:''' Just watch zombie movies, you'll see it. | |||
1298.36 1299.36 '''S:''' All right. | |||
1299.36 1300.36 '''S:''' So shift gears a little bit, Jay. | |||
1300.36 1301.36 '''S:''' Sorry, I'm dead. | |||
1301.36 1302.36 '''S:''' Oh, I'm starting? | |||
1302.36 1303.36 '''S:''' Okay. | |||
{{anchor|tis}} <!-- leave this anchor directly above the corresponding section that follows --> | {{anchor|tis}} <!-- leave this anchor directly above the corresponding section that follows --> | ||
== This Day in Skepticism <small>()</small> == | == This Day in Skepticism <small>()</small> == | ||
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SGU Episode 859 |
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December 25th 2021 |
(brief caption for the episode icon) |
Skeptical Rogues |
S: Steven Novella
|
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Introduction
Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.
10.16 18.32 S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics Guide to the Universe.
18.32 23.64 S: Today is Saturday, November 20th, 2021, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.
23.64 33.24 S: Joining me this week are Bob Novella,
B: Hey everybody.
33.24 37.04 S: Cara Santa Maria,
C: Howdy.
37.04 40.88 S: Jay Novella,
J: Hey guys.
40.88 45.56 S: Evan Bernstein,
E: I love Fort Collins.
45.56 48.20 S: And we have a special guest on this episode, George Hrab.
48.20 49.20 S: George, welcome back.
49.20 50.20 GH: Hi, Joan Collins.
50.20 54.08 GH: Am I still in the special guest zone?
54.08 56.72 GH: Am I still, am I special guest zoned?
56.72 61.32 GH: I keep sending flowers, I keep going on dates with you guys, and I'm still in the special
61.32 63.96 S: guest zone. So what's between in every episode and the special guest?
63.96 64.96 S: What's in between?
64.96 65.96 GH: I don't know.
65.96 66.96 GH: An honorary rogue.
66.96 67.96 GH: A new, I don't know if I'm that, but maybe, yeah.
67.96 68.96 GH: A regular?
68.96 69.96 C: A regular guest?
69.96 70.96 C: A regular guest.
70.96 71.96 C: A regular guest?
71.96 72.96 C: I think a regular guest.
72.96 73.96 C: A regular contributor?
73.96 74.96 GH: A regular guest.
74.96 75.96 GH: Or unleaded guest, maybe.
75.96 76.96 GH: Uninvited guest?
76.96 77.96 GH: Uninvited guest.
77.96 78.96 GH: A crasher.
78.96 79.96 S: For most of that year.
79.96 88.36 S: Yeah, George is frequently on this show, and more recently because we're doing the extravaganza together and we're on these trips, so obviously he's here.
88.36 97.56 S: And I wanted to say that we are live from Fort Collins, Colorado.
97.56 100.64 S: So we're still in Colorado in podcast time.
100.64 101.64 S: We're still out of breath.
101.64 105.48 S: We haven't made it yet to the altitude, but we're getting there.
105.48 106.48 S: How are you guys liking Colorado?
106.48 107.48 S: We haven't seen a lot of it.
107.48 108.48 S: Oh, you're asking us.
108.48 109.48 C: Yeah, I'm asking you guys.
109.48 110.48 B: I love it.
110.48 111.48 B: It's beautiful.
111.48 112.48 C: Yeah, it's gorgeous, right?
112.48 113.48 C: So gorgeous.
113.48 114.48 C: This is your first time here.
114.48 115.48 E: This is my first time?
115.48 116.48 E: Mine too.
116.48 117.48 E: Mine too.
117.48 118.48 E: Not mine.
118.48 119.48 E: I used to live here.
119.48 121.56 E: I lived here for one year when I was about 12 years old.
121.56 124.92 E: So yeah, I've gotten to see much of Colorado in my one year here.
124.92 127.68 E: We went practically everywhere, which was great.
127.68 128.68 E: It's good to be back.
128.68 129.68 J: I'm itchy when I'm here.
129.68 130.68 J: What do you mean?
130.68 131.68 J: Is anybody that lives here itchy because it's so dry?
131.68 132.68 C: It's the dryness.
132.68 133.68 C: Oh, like physically itchy?
133.68 134.68 C: Absolutely.
134.68 135.68 S: Oh, okay.
135.68 136.68 S: I'm scratching.
136.68 142.08 S: George, have you ever been to Colorado before?
142.08 145.12 GH: I've never been to Colorado before, but it's lovely.
145.12 147.40 GH: I think Fort Collins is so much nicer than Denver.
147.40 152.40 GH: It's no contest.
152.40 156.92 GH: So on the way here, we somehow missed like three exits.
156.92 157.92 GH: What happened, Jay?
157.92 158.92 GH: We haven't even talked about what happened.
158.92 160.72 GH: Jay was driving the van and what happened?
160.72 163.92 J: Steve and I were in a heated discussion.
163.92 164.92 J: For 50 miles.
164.92 165.92 J: Yeah, for the entire ride.
165.92 166.92 B: There was no heat in that van.
166.92 167.92 B: I don't know what the heating was.
167.92 168.92 B: I was cold.
168.92 175.16 J: But yeah, it's so funny because I'm freakishly looking at my phone to make sure we're on track.
175.16 180.16 J: And then right at the inflection point when we were, it was a straight shot all the way up from Denver.
180.16 183.72 J: Steve and I got to a point where it got a little like we were like this.
183.72 185.28 J: We were fighting.
185.28 186.28 J: It's okay.
186.28 189.28 J: And I missed it, man.
189.28 192.64 GH: All of a sudden, we run a highway, we pull a U-turn.
192.64 198.84 GH: Now normally when you pull a U-turn on a highway, you go back to the previous exit because that's the one you've missed.
198.84 201.72 GH: So we go back to the previous exit, we keep driving.
201.72 204.32 GH: We go, we pass another exit, we keep driving.
204.32 205.88 GH: We pass a third exit.
205.88 207.96 GH: We're like, how many exits did you miss?
207.96 208.96 GH: That was some discussion.
208.96 212.56 GH: It was the fourth exit we finally turned.
212.56 214.96 J: That's weird because there were more exits, I guess, on that side.
214.96 215.96 J: Oh, sure.
215.96 216.96 GH: That's how roads work.
216.96 217.96 GH: That's how highways work.
217.96 221.96 S: It's just, sorry, you can't go to that side of the state.
221.96 226.52 GH: It's just, it's awesome.
226.52 237.76 S: So we were talking on the last show we recorded, the one before Thanksgiving about Russia blowing up a satellite and the implications of that, the Kessler syndrome where it might flood low earth orbit with debris.
237.76 240.70 S: So we lose basically the ability to have satellites.
240.70 242.24 S: So this morning we're chatting.
242.24 244.24 S: What would that really do?
244.24 245.24 S: What would it do?
245.24 248.84 S: What would the effect on our lives be if we had no satellites?
248.84 250.80 GH: Like all of a sudden, like within a week.
250.80 253.44 S: Within a relatively short period of time.
253.44 254.68 GH: How much would that affect us?
254.68 255.68 S: Yeah.
255.68 256.68 S: The answer is a lot.
256.68 257.68 S: It would affect us a lot.
257.68 264.44 S: But we expanded the conversation to, we thought we always like to start our live shows with a light and funny conversation.
264.44 269.44 S: So we thought we'd talk about the end of civilization.
269.44 273.64 S: Just from a lighthearted perspective.
273.64 279.48 S: How fragile is our modern civilization, our modern society?
279.48 288.40 S: Could something like a CME, which is a coronal mass ejection, another way that we could wipe out our satellite infrastructure and more, our grids could go down.
288.40 291.00 GH: Explain what that is real quick, just so if you don't know what a CME is.
291.00 292.00 B: Coronal mass ejection.
292.00 299.32 B: It's a bundle of energy that's emitted from the sun that is quite gargantuan that it could encompass the earth and beyond.
299.32 306.96 B: And if we get hit with it, it basically would just overload and fry circuits everywhere if it was of sufficient level, which is inevitable actually.
306.96 309.12 B: It's like getting hit by an asteroid.
309.12 310.12 B: Is it going to happen?
310.12 311.12 B: It's like when it's going to happen.
311.12 312.12 S: So this will happen.
312.12 318.16 S: And it's going to happen on like a timescale of decades, not millennia.
318.16 319.36 S: We're getting hit with them all the time.
319.36 321.16 S: It's just a matter of how strong they are.
321.16 322.84 E: Didn't we dodge one in 2012?
322.84 324.96 S: We missed one by about a week.
324.96 327.12 S: Yeah, like we just missed the Earth.
327.12 329.16 S: So it's quite scary actually.
329.16 335.34 S: At one point we did a deep dive on the question of what actually would a CME do?
335.34 338.92 S: And the answer is nobody knows.
338.92 346.36 S: We really don't know because we've never had this level of infrastructure when we got hit by a really powerful CME.
346.36 350.60 S: There have been moderate ones that knocked out local grids like Canada got hit.
350.60 352.20 S: Quebec, 1989.
352.20 357.96 J: So visually the aurora borealis, all the auroras are going to light up like Christmas trees.
357.96 362.28 S: It would be like that, but down to Florida, right?
362.28 365.56 S: You know, depending on how big it is.
365.56 372.12 S: We have seen CMEs that missed the Earth, but they were big enough that if they hit the Earth they would have fried everything.
372.12 373.44 S: So anyway, it's going to happen.
373.44 374.44 S: It's going to happen.
374.44 376.00 GH: We were asking what would be worse?
376.00 379.20 GH: Would the Kessler thing, would no satellites be worse or would the CME be worse?
379.20 383.24 GH: And Steve, right away you said Kessler's worse.
383.24 387.60 S: Because it could take a hundred years before we could occupy low Earth orbit again.
387.60 390.52 S: So you're saying if we scattered low Earth orbit with debris.
390.52 392.96 S: It can get so bad that it's done for decades.
392.96 393.96 S: Generations, generations.
393.96 397.76 B: No communication satellites.
397.76 398.76 B: No GPS.
398.76 399.76 B: No weather prediction.
399.76 404.52 B: I mean, we would be so isolated and society would change.
404.52 405.52 B: Absolutely.
405.52 408.90 C: So you're talking like the difference between like a Fukushima and like a Chernobyl.
408.90 413.56 C: Like in one of them you can just rebuild and in the other like you can't go back there for a while.
413.56 414.56 C: Yeah, right.
414.56 415.88 C: Like you can't, like low Earth orbit is cluttered.
415.88 416.88 C: We can't put satellites back.
416.88 418.88 S: CME is one and done.
418.88 424.24 S: But the big thing about the CME is that it could take 10 to 20 years to rebuild the infrastructure.
424.24 425.24 S: Right.
425.24 426.24 S: Yeah.
426.24 427.24 S: We don't have the giant transformers that would get planned.
427.24 431.88 GH: That's like turning off the Earth's electricity like that.
431.88 435.80 GH: I mean, that to me feels like you can't, it's really hard to come back from that.
435.80 436.80 J: Yeah.
436.80 439.72 J: Well, I mean, that could be like pandemonium craziness.
439.72 440.72 C: Well, it would be.
440.72 442.84 C: Like we saw what happened in Texas over winter.
442.84 447.20 C: We saw, like we've all been there when there has been a blackout, a brownout or something and people die.
447.20 449.20 C: And people, you know, people die.
449.20 458.52 GH: We were saying about toilet paper, like because there was this slight, people were pooping at home more and that totally messed up toilet paper distribution.
458.52 469.08 GH: Like that one factor because people were taking two more craps at home than they had been a month previous that messed up the entire delicate balance of the toilet paper infrastructure.
469.08 473.12 GH: We did learn one cool thing because we were wondering if cell phones use satellites.
473.12 474.12 GH: Right.
474.12 479.40 GH: And we were like, okay, because they must be using, they go to the tower and the tower goes to the satellite to other towers.
479.40 480.60 GH: And it turns out, no, they don't.
480.60 482.00 GH: They go tower to tower to tower.
482.00 485.76 GH: So we would still have cell phones with the Kessler, which is huge.
485.76 491.60 S: Maybe not with the CME, but with the Kessler, we would still have our smartphones, which although, because think about that.
491.60 492.92 S: Think about no cell phones.
492.92 498.20 S: That means like our entire infrastructure of money transfer would go down.
498.20 500.52 S: We'd be back to using coins and cash.
500.52 501.52 GH: Leather pelt.
501.52 509.12 B: Steve, I think it comes down to a couple of things because I think with the CME, I mean, with the CME, I think we could see a tremendous amount of deaths.
509.12 515.04 B: I mean, scores of millions, if not a billion people, because no electricity means a lot of crazy, horrible things.
515.04 517.96 GH: Every person in the hospital that's on a respirator or any kind of...
517.96 518.96 C: Right.
518.96 519.96 C: But the Kessler...
519.96 520.96 C: It would be heat.
520.96 521.96 C: It's like basic things.
521.96 527.16 B: But the Kessler syndrome effect would be, I mean, you'd still have everything you have on it.
527.16 528.16 B: You just can't communicate.
528.16 529.16 B: You can't use so many things that weren't...
529.16 531.56 C: So it would be like it was several years ago.
531.56 535.60 S: Well, it would be like going back about 30 or 40 years.
535.60 537.08 C: But the problem is it would be instant.
537.08 538.08 C: Yes.
538.08 539.08 C: Right.
539.08 540.08 C: And we have systems in place that...
540.08 541.56 C: Because you get dependent on your technology.
541.56 542.56 C: Yeah.
542.56 543.56 C: Right.
543.56 544.56 S: But ultimately, we're not.
544.56 545.56 S: So how long would it take us to harden the grid?
545.56 548.96 S: I mean, hardening the grid, I don't think there's anything in the infrastructure plan on that, to be honest with you.
548.96 551.96 B: I mean, the military's got lots of hardened electronics.
551.96 553.72 S: Hardened is relative.
553.72 564.28 S: What that means is that they're engineered so that they can withstand things like a CME or like the military does it because you get the same effect from a nuclear weapon.
564.28 565.28 S: Nuclear weapon.
565.28 570.80 S: So if we have nuclear bombs going off, it gives the electromagnetic pulse, which has the same effect.
570.80 574.24 S: It induces a current, which is like such a current that it would fry.
574.24 576.72 S: It would literally melt the electronics.
576.72 577.72 S: That's what happened.
577.72 579.12 S: So it's not like you can repair it.
579.12 580.12 S: It's melted.
580.12 581.16 S: You've got to replace it.
581.16 586.16 S: And so hardening it means you engineer it in such a way that that wouldn't happen.
586.16 587.72 J: You insulate it so that energy can't...
587.72 588.72 J: It's insulated.
588.72 589.72 B: But what if you're in a Faraday cage, though?
589.72 592.80 B: I mean, how impervious is the Faraday cage?
592.80 596.16 S: Well, if it's perfect, it's completely impervious.
596.16 599.24 S: But you can't have all of your electronic equipment in a Faraday cage.
599.24 601.92 B: No, we can't have critical components, critical infrastructure in Faraday.
601.92 603.92 C: But also then you can't use them.
603.92 604.92 C: Right.
604.92 607.40 S: Like they're unusable while they're in the cage.
607.40 608.56 S: Like for example, the grid.
608.56 610.26 S: The grid is basically wires.
610.26 612.32 S: Those wires would have induced current.
612.32 613.72 S: You can't put them in a Faraday cage.
613.72 614.72 GH: No, no, no.
614.72 619.24 GH: And if you fry capacitors, there's no backup supply of capacitors and insulators.
619.24 621.24 GH: We don't have a ton just of them.
621.24 622.24 GH: They're not just sitting around.
622.24 624.12 GH: They're like, you've got to build all this stuff anew.
624.12 625.12 S: Yeah.
625.12 631.32 S: So the biggest transformers, if they got fried, we don't have a back catalog of them.
631.32 632.88 S: They could take years to build.
632.88 636.08 S: And it could take decades to replace them.
636.08 638.92 J: That's if the factory wasn't fried to the back.
638.92 640.20 S: That's if one goes down.
640.20 643.52 S: If the world's down, then what are we, back to horse and buggy at that?
643.52 644.52 S: No.
644.52 653.00 S: So one thing I think the pandemic brought to light, although I don't know that we really absorbed this lesson collectively, is how fragile the system is.
653.00 658.20 S: As George was saying, we're pooping at home slightly more, and then there's no toilet paper in the store.
658.20 659.20 S: That's literally what happened.
659.20 664.16 C: Well, really what happened is that we were panicked that we would have to be pooping at home.
664.16 665.16 GH: But imagine the panic.
665.16 666.16 GH: But, Cara, that's really not true.
666.16 667.16 S: Imagine the panic.
667.16 668.16 S: Really?
668.16 669.16 S: That's really not true.
669.16 670.16 S: It was not due to hoarding and demand.
670.16 671.44 S: It was literally due to the supply chain.
671.44 673.32 S: There's like 80%, 90% of it.
673.32 674.32 S: Only?
674.32 675.32 S: 80%, 90% was the supply chain.
675.32 676.32 S: Wow.
676.32 681.76 S: You have a commercial toilet paper supply line and a domestic toilet paper supply line.
681.76 682.76 S: One of them is cardboard.
682.76 683.76 S: Right.
683.76 684.76 S: And then the demand shifted.
684.76 685.76 S: Demand shifted.
685.76 686.76 S: To domestic.
686.76 691.00 S: And it completely... The same thing was true of food.
691.00 698.40 S: So what percentage of the... like an average American, what percentage of our calories do we get from outside the home, like restaurants or whatever?
698.40 699.40 S: What do you think?
699.40 700.40 S: Or work or... yeah.
700.40 702.64 S: You mean not the stuff we buy at a store and bring home?
702.64 703.64 S: Yeah, yeah.
703.64 704.64 S: 30%, 40%.
704.64 705.64 S: It's a little bit more than 50%.
705.64 706.64 S: 50%, 50%.
706.64 707.64 S: Yeah.
707.64 708.64 S: About half.
708.64 709.64 S: Yeah, so about half.
709.64 712.40 S: About half is food we bought and brought into our home and prepared in the home.
712.40 715.38 S: The other half is at a restaurant or whatever.
715.38 719.00 S: During the pandemic, the at-home food went to 70%.
719.00 721.68 S: So it went from 50-50 to 70-30.
721.68 725.12 S: And that also screwed our supply lines.
725.12 733.16 S: Now we're having inflation and backlogs because people are buying more stuff and fewer experiences.
733.16 735.68 S: So we're going to movies less and buying TVs more.
735.68 739.64 S: And that totally blog jammed our supply line.
739.64 747.60 S: And that's from a pandemic, which was disruptive, but nothing like a CME or a Kessler syndrome.
747.60 749.16 S: It would be 100 times worse.
749.16 751.30 J: So really, there's no other way to look at it.
751.30 752.30 J: We would be totaled.
752.30 753.30 S: Yeah.
753.30 754.92 S: There's no question that we'd be totaled.
754.92 761.16 S: The question is how far would we fall and how long would it take to come back?
761.16 768.84 GH: I'm just wondering how long before leather and football pads for that whole, not Blade Runner, but the road warrior scenario.
768.84 770.24 GH: Are we talking months?
770.24 777.40 GH: Are we talking years before roving gangs of, bring me the gas, that kind of thing?
777.40 778.64 J: I love that character.
778.64 783.88 J: I think it's scary to think how much of our human knowledge is stored.
783.88 786.04 J: This might sound ridiculous, but just even on YouTube.
786.04 791.60 J: And if we have a CME, will that fry hard drives, will that make it so all that data is gone?
791.60 794.32 S: If it's powerful enough, it's all about the strength of the CME.
794.32 798.20 J: So we need, we're watching, what should we call it?
798.20 800.36 J: The Isaac Asimov series.
800.36 801.36 J: We need a foundation.
801.36 802.36 S: We should have a backup.
802.36 805.00 S: Well, that's why we have things like the seed vault.
805.00 807.10 S: There are actually preparations for that.
807.10 809.88 S: So one question is what do we do about it?
809.88 813.48 S: It's interesting the notion of how will people respond?
813.48 816.44 S: How will people respond in a serious collapse?
816.44 818.16 S: CME wipes out the grid.
818.16 819.16 S: Nobody has any power.
819.16 820.16 S: What do we do?
820.16 821.64 S: How do people react?
821.64 825.96 S: The initial response is for people to be neighborly, to be people to help each other out.
825.96 826.96 S: We're all in this together.
826.96 827.96 S: Let's get through it.
827.96 833.92 S: The longer you go, though, without services, the more road warrior it gets.
833.92 846.32 S: And then at the two, three month point when people have exhausted their supplies and FEMA doesn't have enough to go around and it really starts to get desperate, it completely flips.
846.32 855.08 S: So the question is could we recover before we get to the, before that window where things really go off the cliff?
855.08 856.08 S: And who knows?
856.08 858.48 S: We'll know when it happens, right?
858.48 859.74 S: Is the question.
859.74 864.72 S: So how can we prep, not to use the word prep and suddenly you're a prepper, right?
864.72 869.68 S: But how can we prepare to mitigate that to some extent?
869.68 871.00 S: Buy more toilet paper?
871.00 872.24 S: Well, that's part of it.
872.24 887.66 S: So FEMA, you know, who's like our disaster preparedness organization, FEMA's recommendation that is that you have everything you need in your home so that you could survive independently with enough food for everybody for three days.
887.66 888.66 S: That's their recommendation.
888.66 889.66 S: Just three days?
889.66 890.66 S: I know.
890.66 891.66 S: Three days?
891.66 892.66 S: I thought you were going to say three months.
892.66 893.66 S: No, it's three days.
893.66 901.56 S: The reason that that's their recommendation is because that's based on the premise that it will take them three days to stand up their support.
901.56 904.46 S: But they rarely are able to do that is the thing.
904.46 907.44 S: So the criticism is like the three days is a pipe dream.
907.44 911.44 C: I think that's also based on the most likely scenario.
911.44 916.04 C: So like I have, you know, a disaster kit in my home.
916.04 919.68 C: For me, I live alone because I live in earthquake country.
919.68 926.56 C: And so if there is an earthquake and I can't get out of my house or the water gets shut off or I don't have electricity, I'll be okay.
926.56 929.86 C: And the idea is that within three days, yes, there may be shelters available.
929.86 935.20 C: Or like in a tornado situation, in a whatever, this is not FEMA's CME recommendation.
935.20 938.24 C: Like for when civilization collapses, three days of food will be fine.
938.24 941.48 C: Like it's, you know, it's like the zombie apocalypse is different than what most of
941.48 953.12 S: us should have to think about. That is their regional, temporary, you know, so like for the Northeast, it would be a major nor'easter where we get snowed in for three days, which literally happened not that many years ago.
953.12 955.00 E: It literally snowed in for three days.
955.00 956.00 E: Right.
956.00 960.04 S: Or tornadoes or earthquake or the local grid goes down.
960.04 963.44 B: And they're talking about a once in a decade scenario.
963.44 965.48 B: We're talking about a once in a millennia.
965.48 970.44 C: These aren't even, but the sad thing is these aren't once in a decade anymore either.
970.44 973.16 C: Like I have a wildfire scare every season now.
973.16 976.72 C: There's a legitimate risk that my house will burn down every season.
976.72 977.72 C: Yeah.
977.72 979.64 C: I mean, that's, you know, that's just becoming the norm.
979.64 983.08 J: So the question is, sorry, when you run a scenario like this through your head.
983.08 985.72 J: And, you know, this happens all the time.
985.72 990.32 J: You know, there's so many things that we could, the pandemic was like a perfect example of it.
990.32 999.36 J: You know, it just blows my mind to watch the U.S. government, because this is the country I live in, so I'll pick our government, just watch them sit around and do absolutely nothing.
999.36 1002.60 J: Like it's as if there wasn't a pandemic.
1002.60 1005.80 J: It's as if, you know, a coronal mass ejection isn't going to happen.
1005.80 1009.28 J: Like we could, we should be slowly solving these problems.
1009.28 1010.28 C: I know.
1010.28 1012.28 C: I think that a lot more is happening than you're giving credit to.
1012.28 1014.60 J: But why do you feel that way?
1014.60 1016.92 J: I have no indication of that.
1016.92 1017.92 C: Sorry.
1017.92 1021.32 C: Specifically, you don't think that our government is doing any pandemic preparedness?
1021.32 1025.12 J: Well, I'm sure that we're stockpiling PPE.
1025.12 1029.60 S: We have strategic stockpiles of food, fuel.
1029.60 1030.60 S: We do.
1030.60 1031.60 C: Is that new?
1031.60 1032.60 C: Is that new because of the pandemic?
1032.60 1035.16 C: And FEMA is a massive department that works very hard.
1035.16 1037.52 C: They just don't have enough resources.
1037.52 1040.56 S: They have like barely enough resources for like a hurricane.
1040.56 1044.00 S: But yeah, if there anything bigger than that, they would be instantly involved.
1044.00 1045.00 J: I hear you.
1045.00 1046.68 J: I'm happy to change my mind.
1046.68 1055.68 J: But if we carved out, you know, 10 percent of the military budget and said, we're just going to spend that money on hardening our grid or making FEMA more powerful or, you know.
1055.68 1058.56 S: We famously collectively do not prepare enough for bad things.
1058.56 1060.12 S: But even after a bad thing just happened.
1060.12 1066.64 C: The scary thing is we had a good pandemic plan and we had leadership that was not interested in following our plan.
1066.64 1069.24 GH: There's more important things like, you know, critical race theory.
1069.24 1070.72 GH: I mean, way more important.
1070.72 1074.84 GH: We need to be fighting against the real boogeyman.
1074.84 1077.36 S: On an individual level, what should we do?
1077.36 1085.48 S: My approach is I don't consider myself a prepper, but I like to rather than having three days of food in my house, I like to have three weeks of food in my house.
1085.48 1093.08 S: If everybody did that, that would actually be a really good thing because you would be decompressing the system for everybody if the system gets stressed out.
1093.08 1094.08 S: And it's not that hard.
1094.08 1095.08 C: It's not that hard.
1095.08 1097.72 C: That does assume that you have a house that you can afford to do that.
1097.72 1102.16 E: The problem is the people in the cities are going to have major problems.
1102.16 1106.12 C: The haves should do that, but the have nots need the kind of support.
1106.12 1107.12 C: Absolutely.
1107.12 1108.12 C: That's exactly it.
1108.12 1111.28 S: I don't want to be a burden on people who can't afford to do that.
1111.28 1115.08 S: But it's actually not that expensive either because the kind of food you're going to be storing, first of all, you'll eat it.
1115.08 1116.08 S: I'm not saying getting MREs.
1116.08 1123.20 S: I'm just saying just have more dried goods in your home, whatever, and use it.
1123.20 1124.20 S: You cycle through it.
1124.20 1129.40 S: You're just stretching your backlog so that it's not like you're out of food in three days.
1129.40 1130.40 S: You could actually survive.
1130.40 1132.64 S: You may not be happy about it, but you could survive for a few weeks.
1132.64 1138.04 S: And again, it helps everybody because now you're not online looking for bread because you've got your dried beans in your pantry.
1138.04 1139.76 B: And Steve, did you eat those?
1139.76 1141.52 B: Have you eaten those MREs?
1141.52 1142.52 B: I had some.
1142.52 1143.52 B: It was pretty horrible.
1143.52 1144.52 B: They're horrible.
1144.52 1145.92 B: I've had some that have been pretty good.
1145.92 1150.36 B: I guess I didn't taste everything, but the things that I ate were pretty bad.
1150.36 1153.44 B: But I guess in the apocalypse, I'd be drooling for it.
1153.44 1155.60 E: You will not be choosy in that scenario.
1155.60 1157.32 B: Look at that juicy rat.
1157.32 1158.32 B: That looks good.
1158.32 1159.32 None It's true.
1159.32 1160.32 GH: It's so not worth it.
1160.32 1161.32 GH: It's so not worth it.
1161.32 1163.44 GH: I'm going to do it.
1163.44 1165.68 GH: What Steve is saying is basically I'm a prepper.
1165.68 1166.68 GH: He's a prepper.
1166.68 1167.68 GH: She's a prepper.
1167.68 1168.68 GH: You're a prepper.
1168.68 1169.68 C: Wouldn't you like to be a prepper?
1169.68 1170.68 C: That's it.
1170.68 1171.68 S: You nailed it, George.
1171.68 1174.68 GH: That was so worth the wait.
1174.68 1175.68 S: It was.
1175.68 1182.92 S: We live in this bubble of the assumption that the infrastructure that we have is going to chug along without disruption.
1182.92 1185.92 S: We throw a hissy fit when there's the slightest hiccup.
1185.92 1188.76 S: But it's just inevitable that something much bigger is going to happen.
1188.76 1191.28 S: We know it is, and we're not prepared for it.
1191.28 1192.28 S: We're way too short-sighted.
1192.28 1193.28 S: We're never going to be ready for it.
1193.28 1196.68 S: We don't have the political will to prepare for it.
1196.68 1206.44 S: When Ebola hit, the worst Ebola outbreak, the reason why that was the worst Ebola outbreak was because we weren't ready for it, even though we knew it was coming.
1206.44 1207.96 S: We're like, oh, there's a fire.
1207.96 1208.96 S: Let's build a firehouse.
1208.96 1212.84 S: That's what literally... Now it's like, all right, next time we'll be ready, because now we know.
1212.84 1213.84 S: We're a proactive society.
1213.84 1214.84 S: We're a proactive society.
1214.84 1219.00 S: Yeah, we were sort of more ready for the next one, but still nowhere where we need to be.
1219.00 1221.24 S: The pandemic showed that we weren't where we need to be.
1221.24 1225.84 B: Anyway- People are going to say, oh, we had a pandemic in 1918, and now in 2020.
1225.84 1227.16 B: Oh, we've got another century.
1227.16 1228.16 B: We're good.
1228.16 1231.70 B: But no, it could be in four years or even sooner.
1231.70 1233.56 B: We know it's going to be soon.
1233.56 1235.28 B: What if it's man-made?
1235.28 1236.68 B: Don't even start me on that one.
1236.68 1237.68 B: Yeah, it's-
1237.68 1238.68 E: A lot of scenarios.
1238.68 1242.44 S: Yeah. I think, yeah, as a society, we need to do better.
1242.44 1243.52 S: We're not the only ones to think about this.
1243.52 1251.42 S: There are people who are talking about, the pandemic showed how fragile this system is, how our food system is, et cetera, et cetera.
1251.42 1256.92 S: There are real plans to make, what's the word they use, more resilient.
1256.92 1259.84 S: We want to make these supply lines more resilient.
1259.84 1261.44 S: So it's just a matter of political will.
1261.44 1265.28 C: Yeah, it's a matter of putting our money where our mouth is, because people are working on this.
1265.28 1269.80 C: They're working hard on it, and they're like literal heroes that kept us out of the worst of it.
1269.80 1273.24 C: The problem it wasn't better is because we're not funding them.
1273.24 1274.76 E: You can also function at the state level too.
1274.76 1276.44 E: You don't have to rely on the federal system.
1276.44 1281.48 E: You should also be contacting people in more close to home, local, state level.
1281.48 1282.76 S: But they are dependent on federal funding.
1282.76 1283.76 E: I get that.
1283.76 1284.76 E: Yes.
1284.76 1286.92 E: Let them take the money and then allow the states to do the prep work for the people.
1286.92 1292.40 S: And then at the individual level, just make sure you always have toilet paper and dry
1292.40 1296.16 J: tissues. Everything you need to know, you'll find in zombie movies.
1296.16 1298.36 S: Just watch zombie movies, you'll see it.
1298.36 1299.36 S: All right.
1299.36 1300.36 S: So shift gears a little bit, Jay.
1300.36 1301.36 S: Sorry, I'm dead.
1301.36 1302.36 S: Oh, I'm starting?
1302.36 1303.36 S: Okay.
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Today I Learned
- Fact/Description, possibly with an article reference[10]
- Fact/Description
- Fact/Description
Notes
References
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