SGU Episode 905

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SGU Episode 905
November 12th 2022
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SGU 904                      SGU 906
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
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[ https://sguforums.org/index.php?BOARD=1.0 Forum Discussion]

Introduction

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

00:09.000 --> 00:13.000 Hello and welcome to the Skeptic's Guide to the Universe.

00:13.000 --> 00:18.000 Today is Thursday, November 10th, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.

00:18.000 --> 00:20.000 Joining me this week are Bob Novella.

00:20.000 --> 00:21.000 Hey everybody.

00:21.000 --> 00:22.000 Kara Santamaria.

00:22.000 --> 00:23.000 Howdy.

00:23.000 --> 00:24.000 Jay Novella.

00:24.000 --> 00:25.000 Hey guys.

00:25.000 --> 00:26.000 And Evan Bernstein.

00:26.000 --> 00:27.000 Good evening, everyone.

00:27.000 --> 00:33.000 So Evan, you were recently at PsyCon, the CSI's annual conference.

00:33.000 --> 00:34.000 Isn't that right?

00:34.000 --> 00:35.000 Yes, I was.

00:35.000 --> 00:37.000 I wasn't there long.

00:37.000 --> 00:43.000 I happened to be in Las Vegas on the same weekend that my sister got married in Las

00:43.000 --> 00:44.000 Vegas.

00:44.000 --> 00:48.000 So you skipped the wedding and went to the conference?

00:48.000 --> 00:49.000 Almost.

00:49.000 --> 00:55.640 It was just across the street at the Hotel Flamingo where the CSI conference was happening,

00:55.640 --> 01:00.480 so I went over there for a few hours and saw some people, saw some faces I hadn't seen

01:00.480 --> 01:05.680 and oh my gosh, at least since the last time we were at CSI back in 2018 and even before

01:05.680 --> 01:06.680 that with some other people.

01:06.680 --> 01:07.680 Yeah, and the before time.

01:07.680 --> 01:08.680 Yeah, before the pandemic.

01:08.680 --> 01:09.680 And the before times.

01:09.680 --> 01:10.680 The pre.

01:10.680 --> 01:17.280 So in case anyone listening doesn't know, the CSI, the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry,

01:17.280 --> 01:18.280 used to be Psycop.

01:18.280 --> 01:21.760 They're the biggest national skeptical organization.

01:21.760 --> 01:28.840 They've been around since, I think, the mid-70s, 75, 76.

01:28.840 --> 01:33.880 They publish the Skeptical Inquirer, which is an excellent skeptical magazine.

01:33.880 --> 01:39.960 I get it every month, so one of the few things I enjoy reading cover to cover.

01:39.960 --> 01:47.320 Unfortunately, the editor of the Skeptical Inquirer, Kendrick Frazier, who we all know,

01:47.320 --> 01:49.640 somebody we would see at the conferences.

01:49.640 --> 01:51.360 He died two days ago.

01:51.360 --> 01:53.600 He was 80 years old.

01:53.600 --> 01:54.600 So good run.

01:54.600 --> 01:55.680 Apparently, he was sick.

01:55.680 --> 01:56.680 People knew.

01:56.680 --> 01:57.680 It wasn't like a surprise.

01:57.680 --> 02:02.600 It was known that he was, you know, that he was sick and was going to die soon.

02:02.600 --> 02:06.120 I got out, I think, two days before he passed away.

02:06.120 --> 02:09.820 I got an email from CSI letting us know, you know, what was going on.

02:09.820 --> 02:13.640 So yeah, it's always sad for, you know, a fellow skeptic to pass and he was, you know,

02:13.640 --> 02:18.560 basically dedicated majority of his adult life to promoting science and skepticism,

02:18.560 --> 02:21.140 you know, through his work through CSI.

02:21.140 --> 02:27.240 When we first went to, well, at least my experience, my first time going up to their facility in

02:27.240 --> 02:35.440 Buffalo was back in 1997 with you guys, and that was when I first met Kendrick then.

02:35.440 --> 02:40.780 And he then, as you said, Steve, sort of was a fixture of all the conferences that had

02:40.780 --> 02:41.780 taken place.

02:41.780 --> 02:44.740 He was one of the familiar faces there.

02:44.740 --> 02:47.360 You always saw him at these skeptic conferences.

02:47.360 --> 02:51.120 Yeah, there's a lot of characters in the skeptical movement, you know what I mean?

02:51.120 --> 02:55.440 Like there's a lot of people you meet that have strong personalities.

02:55.440 --> 03:00.960 And Kendrick was just like, as you say, just a fixture, just a real professional, just

03:00.960 --> 03:03.640 always there, just doing his job, you know, getting it done.

03:03.640 --> 03:04.640 You know what I mean?

03:04.640 --> 03:06.440 He's also always a super nice guy.

03:06.440 --> 03:07.440 Absolutely.

03:07.440 --> 03:10.600 A very no drama kind of executive kind of person.

03:10.600 --> 03:12.160 Yeah, even keel.

03:12.160 --> 03:14.960 And a big Los Angeles Dodgers fan, if I recall.

03:14.960 --> 03:20.400 He was, I remember at the last conference I saw him, this was back in 2018 when we were

03:20.400 --> 03:25.800 in Las Vegas, at the conference he was there and he was wearing a Dodgers jersey.

03:25.800 --> 03:30.320 And he was very happy and proud talking about his Dodgers who were, I believe, in the World

03:30.320 --> 03:32.600 Series, had just gotten to the World Series that year.

03:32.600 --> 03:38.200 And he was making plans, OK, I have to be here for this talk and I have to give a talk

03:38.200 --> 03:41.320 here, but then I'm going to sneak away and go see the baseball game for a while and then

03:41.320 --> 03:43.220 I'll be back.

03:43.220 --> 03:47.400 So he was apparently a very big baseball fan and loved his Dodgers.

03:47.400 --> 03:51.000 He was the author or editor on 10 different books.

03:51.000 --> 03:53.400 And I didn't know this, he was a fellow of the AAAS.

03:53.400 --> 03:57.960 Is he a scientist or just a science writer?

03:57.960 --> 04:01.520 More of a science writer than a practicing scientist, but he has a science education,

04:01.520 --> 04:02.520 yeah.

Dumbest Thing of the Week ()

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04:02.520 --> 04:06.920 All right, so we're going to move on with our news items, but Evan, you're going to

04:06.920 --> 04:09.720 start us off with a Dumbest Thing of the Week.

04:09.720 --> 04:11.120 Yeah, Dumbest Thing of the Week.

04:11.120 --> 04:12.400 Do you want me to sing the song?

04:12.400 --> 04:13.400 No, not really.

04:13.400 --> 04:15.960 Kara, do you want me to sing the song?

04:15.960 --> 04:21.200 I'm going to say no also, I'm going to get in trouble.

04:21.200 --> 04:27.680 Then you know what, I'll not sing it this week, but if a listener writes us and says

04:27.680 --> 04:32.160 next time they want to hear it, it's going to happen, but I'll spare you, I'll spare

04:32.160 --> 04:35.400 you the enjoyment of me singing that song this week.

04:35.400 --> 04:36.400 Dumbest Thing of the Week.

04:36.400 --> 04:41.600 All right, Norway's Prince Louise, she is quitting her royal duties, it was announced

04:41.600 --> 04:42.600 a few days ago.

04:42.600 --> 04:44.520 Oh, she wants to have a really good reason.

04:44.520 --> 04:45.600 Oh, absolutely.

04:45.600 --> 04:50.600 She's going to devote all of her time to her true passion in life, alternative medicine.

04:50.600 --> 04:51.600 Oh, boy.

04:51.600 --> 04:52.600 What?

04:52.600 --> 04:53.600 Oh, yeah.

04:53.600 --> 04:54.600 What does that mean?

04:54.600 --> 04:59.880 Well, I will explain, and you know the definition of alternative medicine is anything that is

04:59.880 --> 05:06.160 not medicine, just so we're clear about that, but this is essentially almost a follow-up

05:06.160 --> 05:11.640 news item to one that I had talked about back in June of this year concerning Princess Louise.

05:11.640 --> 05:18.360 If you remember that her fiancé announced, and his name is Shaman Durek, that he had

05:18.360 --> 05:22.680 become engaged to the princess, Princess Louise of Norway.

05:22.680 --> 05:30.320 Shaman Durek, a sixth-generation shaman, author of the best-selling book, best-seller book,

05:30.320 --> 05:36.520 Spirit Hacking, Shamanic Keys to Reclaim Your Personal Power, Transform Yourself, and

05:36.520 --> 05:37.720 Light Up the World.

05:37.720 --> 05:42.600 Yes, the book in which he claims many things, including that childhood cancer is caused

05:42.600 --> 05:45.000 by unhappiness.

05:45.000 --> 05:49.120 Perhaps that will ring a bell as to the last news item I spoke about in regards to him.

05:49.120 --> 05:51.200 Let's blame the kids for their own cancer.

05:51.200 --> 05:52.200 That's a good idea.

05:52.200 --> 05:58.640 Yeah, that's a wonderful, wonderful scientifically-based philosophy that he espouses.

05:58.640 --> 06:00.640 And there are other gems in that book.

06:00.640 --> 06:03.580 Yeah, and the book got pulled from publishers.

06:03.580 --> 06:08.000 Many publishers in Europe realized, oh, this is bad, it's coming out.

06:08.000 --> 06:10.080 And Norway also pulled the book.

06:10.080 --> 06:11.880 They said, nope, sorry, not here.

06:11.880 --> 06:13.960 I think in America it stayed on the shelf.

06:13.960 --> 06:18.440 We have apparently a higher tolerance for dangerous health claims here in America than

06:18.440 --> 06:21.660 they do in Europe when it comes to these things.

06:21.660 --> 06:27.480 But Shaman Durek, he helps his victims, I mean clients, tap into their personal power

06:27.480 --> 06:31.640 and this is his words, while unblocking negative patterns that prevent them from reaching their

06:31.640 --> 06:33.600 optimal human performance.

06:33.600 --> 06:35.760 Does it get more gobbledygook than that?

06:35.760 --> 06:37.080 No, it does not.

06:37.080 --> 06:39.680 Now clearly he's beloved in Norway, apparently, right?

06:39.680 --> 06:42.320 Oh wait, the Wikipedia page about him, let's see.

06:42.320 --> 06:46.240 He advocates several conspiracy theories and has been characterized by Norwegian media

06:46.240 --> 06:48.580 and other critics as a con man.

06:48.580 --> 06:52.960 His only book was described by critics as nonsense, garbage, and dirty talk, and the

06:52.960 --> 06:54.680 ravings of a lunatic.

06:54.680 --> 06:58.300 But you know, he's actually a misunderstood soul.

06:58.300 --> 07:03.040 He addresses his critics and naysayers by comparing himself to the likes of Albert Einstein

07:03.040 --> 07:08.440 and Thomas Edison, claiming that they too were geniuses and simply misunderstood.

07:08.440 --> 07:11.960 Where have we heard that before?

07:11.960 --> 07:15.840 Now if all that background wasn't enough, he has the full endorsement and friendship

07:15.840 --> 07:18.360 of Gwyneth Paltrow and the Goop Parade.

07:18.360 --> 07:21.040 So that, I think, sums him up pretty well.

07:21.040 --> 07:25.800 So yeah, they're engaged, Princess Louise and the Shaman.

07:25.800 --> 07:31.360 But in this latest update, which came courtesy of the BBC, among other news outlets that

07:31.360 --> 07:36.060 picked it up, she has relinquished her royal duties, yes, she's going to focus on her

07:36.060 --> 07:41.160 alternative medicine business with the showman, I mean the Shaman.

07:41.160 --> 07:45.800 And Princess Louise, here's what she says, she's aware of the importance of research

07:45.800 --> 07:51.580 based knowledge, but she believes alternative medicine can be an important supplement to

07:51.580 --> 07:54.240 help the conventional medical establishment.

07:54.240 --> 08:00.880 Yeah, just like putting a little bit of manure on your ice cream supplements it and makes

08:00.880 --> 08:02.160 it better.

08:02.160 --> 08:04.680 And yeah, so we hear that before all the time.

08:04.680 --> 08:10.240 Oh, here's what else she says, a warm hand, an acupuncture needle, a crystal, natural

08:10.240 --> 08:15.960 remedies, yoga, meditation, or therapeutic conversation can, I believe, help to make

08:15.960 --> 08:18.320 life better for many individuals.

08:18.320 --> 08:20.480 You see what the pseudoscientists do?

08:20.480 --> 08:25.120 They blend the crazy ideas, you know, the acupuncture, the crystals, those natural

08:25.120 --> 08:32.040 remedies, with the non-crazy ideas, you know, meditation, yoga, conversation with therapists.

08:32.040 --> 08:36.560 You know, they couch themselves as being sort of these moderates, almost rationals, instead

08:36.560 --> 08:41.900 of just emphasizing the outright quackery agenda that they have.

08:41.900 --> 08:47.820 And they blend the two, they mix the two, it's a deception, is what it is.

08:47.820 --> 08:52.440 She also says, I also believe that there are components of a good life in sound physical

08:52.440 --> 08:57.760 and mental health that may not be so easy to sum up in a research report.

08:57.760 --> 09:02.560 Translation, scientific research and analysis is lacking and therefore any of the blanks

09:02.560 --> 09:08.280 that science can't answer means the answer lies in unfounded beliefs and ideas that are

09:08.280 --> 09:10.400 untethered to reality.

09:10.400 --> 09:13.000 Or I could ignore science whenever I want.

09:13.000 --> 09:16.080 Instead, go with what your gut is telling you in a way.

09:16.080 --> 09:21.960 The princess, yes, she's controversial and has been so for many decades.

09:21.960 --> 09:28.760 She started a school, this was back in 2007, to help people get in touch with their angels.

09:28.760 --> 09:33.760 And not in a metaphoric way, to get in touch with their angels.

09:33.760 --> 09:37.360 Angels exist and you can communicate with them.

09:37.360 --> 09:39.800 And she's been doing this ever since she was a child.

09:39.800 --> 09:44.200 And she's brought it with her, now she's I think in her 50s, so well into adulthood.

09:44.200 --> 09:48.400 She and a friend opened that school together back in 2007, the school has since closed

09:48.400 --> 09:49.400 in 2018.

09:49.400 --> 09:55.140 It didn't quite go I think as planned and had financial problems, she had to sell one

09:55.140 --> 09:58.080 of her houses in order to pay off the debts and so forth.

09:58.080 --> 10:00.000 So that went down.

10:00.000 --> 10:05.900 But there were some exposés and some things written about the school and they actually

10:05.900 --> 10:11.480 went into the school to do some, well to observe what exactly was going on.

10:11.480 --> 10:16.120 And they took some video about what was going on inside the classrooms there.

10:16.120 --> 10:22.620 And here's what they said, it mostly showed the princess and her friend, the other teacher,

10:22.620 --> 10:27.720 they would meditate with clients, trying to summon the spiritual energy needed to recognize

10:27.720 --> 10:30.440 and communicate with angels.

10:30.440 --> 10:31.440 That's it.

10:31.440 --> 10:32.440 That's all they did.

10:32.440 --> 10:37.880 They sat, I don't know, a seance, for lack of a better term, I don't know how else

10:37.880 --> 10:40.080 to really compare that.

10:40.080 --> 10:46.400 But hey, for $1,500 a class or a course, a semester, I have no idea, probably six classes,

10:46.400 --> 10:49.140 $1,500, that's what you would get.

10:49.140 --> 10:55.640 And yeah, you would use these angels to empower yourself and create miracles in your own life.

10:55.640 --> 10:59.600 These are all quotes right from their website, right from their literature.

10:59.600 --> 11:02.960 What is her business going to be, nobody really knows, time will tell.

11:02.960 --> 11:07.600 But based on her history and the history of her fiancé and the company that she keeps

11:07.600 --> 11:11.640 and the fact that her own family effectively cast her out because she's unpopular and

11:11.640 --> 11:17.540 detached from reality, I think we can safely assume that her foray into full-time pseudoscience

11:17.540 --> 11:21.440 will be, what, to be continued.

11:21.440 --> 11:22.440 We will find out.

11:22.440 --> 11:25.400 So this is, I have two minds on this story.

11:25.400 --> 11:30.880 One is that, you know, it always makes me sad to think of people dedicating their life

11:30.880 --> 11:31.880 to nonsense.

11:31.880 --> 11:32.880 You know what I mean?

11:32.880 --> 11:39.920 It's like, they're going to put so much time and energy into a fantasy that they think

11:39.920 --> 11:44.960 is real because they have bought into it, and it's just such a waste.

11:44.960 --> 11:50.220 But also, she seems to have been into this since she was a child, right, so this just

11:50.220 --> 11:54.320 may be her predisposition rather than being seduced by it.

11:54.320 --> 11:57.480 She sounds like she's like all in from the beginning.

11:57.480 --> 12:03.040 And she's made a choice here, Steve, a choice that so few people in life have, especially

12:03.040 --> 12:10.000 with someone of her exposure, her power, the wealth and the exposure that comes along with

12:10.000 --> 12:15.600 being part of a royal family and the good work that you could potentially be doing.

12:15.600 --> 12:20.940 And you're shunting that, you're throwing that away and that possibility in order to

12:20.940 --> 12:24.360 go down this specific route in life.

12:24.360 --> 12:25.360 That makes it worse.

12:25.360 --> 12:27.600 All right, thanks, Evan.

12:27.600 --> 12:28.600 There you go.

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News Items

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Climate Change in the Classroom (mm:ss)

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12:28.600 --> 12:35.000 We have a couple of climate-related news items this week, partly because, you know, it's

12:35.000 --> 12:40.760 COP 27, it's the big climate get-together, UN meeting in Egypt this year.

12:40.760 --> 12:44.900 And of course, there are the usual people whining about all of the attendees taking

12:44.900 --> 12:48.780 private jets there, which, you know, is a distraction.

12:48.780 --> 12:53.440 But there's a few things we could talk about, but Jay, you're going to start us off by

12:53.440 --> 12:57.920 talking about how climate change is taught in the classroom.

12:57.920 --> 13:04.320 In the past few years, the science and education standards in Texas were reviewed and updated.

13:04.320 --> 13:10.520 So these education standards, they outline what the students in each grade and each subject

13:10.520 --> 13:11.520 should learn.

13:11.520 --> 13:12.520 Right.

13:12.520 --> 13:17.200 This is like literally what are the children going to learn and in what grade are they?

13:17.200 --> 13:22.040 This was the first review of the education standards that proposed students learn about

13:22.040 --> 13:23.880 human-caused climate change.

13:23.880 --> 13:24.880 Imagine that.

13:24.880 --> 13:29.520 This is the first review period that they're actually going to put the question out there.

13:29.520 --> 13:31.680 Should we teach our kids about climate change?

13:31.680 --> 13:34.560 This seems like they're already behind the ball here.

13:34.560 --> 13:37.440 Texas happens to be a key player in this situation.

13:37.440 --> 13:39.120 So let me give you the background here.

13:39.120 --> 13:44.320 Since Texas is one of the biggest single textbook purchasers, when they decide what should and

13:44.320 --> 13:48.880 should not be taught to their students, the companies that make textbooks, you know, they

13:48.880 --> 13:52.160 commonly change their products to fit what Texas wants.

13:52.160 --> 13:54.680 That's how much buying power Texas has.

13:54.680 --> 13:58.400 Then those books get sold all across the United States.

13:58.400 --> 14:03.520 In a 2020 review of science standards of all 50 states in the US, when looking at how well

14:03.520 --> 14:09.200 climate change was represented in their curriculum, most states got an A or B. Texas got an F.

14:09.200 --> 14:16.160 In 2019, NPR did a poll where four out of five people in the United States think that

14:16.160 --> 14:19.180 school children should be educated about climate change.

14:19.180 --> 14:22.480 So clearly, you know, these two things don't line up.

14:22.480 --> 14:27.840 The last time the Texas board reviewed and updated the Texas essential knowledge and

14:27.840 --> 14:33.920 skills, this is called TEKS, this was in regards to science.

14:33.920 --> 14:35.560 This happened back in 2009.

14:35.560 --> 14:39.640 Now, during that cycle of review, the board argued about evolution.

14:39.640 --> 14:43.320 They were really trying to figure out like how they want to present evolution to the

14:43.320 --> 14:45.240 children in Texas.

14:45.240 --> 14:49.520 And they also decided that high school students should hear both sides of the argument about

14:49.520 --> 14:52.360 whether or not global warming is happening.

14:52.360 --> 14:54.480 This was in 2009.

14:54.480 --> 15:00.440 Back in 2019, when it was again time to review and update the Texas essential knowledge and

15:00.440 --> 15:06.840 skills, the heavily debated topic at this point was finally climate science.

15:06.840 --> 15:09.640 This was the number one thing that was being debated.

15:09.640 --> 15:12.220 The board had three different curricula to consider.

15:12.220 --> 15:18.080 So they had high school core sciences, high school elective sciences, and then K-8, which

15:18.080 --> 15:20.200 is all the other grades.

15:20.200 --> 15:25.200 The board brought in 85 volunteers and some of them, you know, they were professionals.

15:25.200 --> 15:30.120 They were content advisors who could give the board suggestions on what should be changed.

15:30.120 --> 15:35.160 And those who worked on the high school core science standards initially did not include

15:35.160 --> 15:39.920 any reference to the science of modern climate change, remarkably.

15:39.920 --> 15:44.600 During the process of deciding on what will end up in the curriculum, the board had a

15:44.600 --> 15:45.600 public meeting, right?

15:45.600 --> 15:48.840 They, you know, they opened it up and they let everybody and anybody who wants to comment

15:48.840 --> 15:51.000 about it chime in.

15:51.000 --> 15:57.300 And 30 people raised the topic of how climate change should be included in these core classes.

15:57.300 --> 16:02.080 This came from parents and teachers and other people involved in education.

16:02.080 --> 16:06.360 So also in that same meeting, a man named Robert Unger gave his opinion.

16:06.360 --> 16:10.000 He, however, was a representative for the Texas Energy Council.

16:10.000 --> 16:11.520 Guess where this is going?

16:11.520 --> 16:15.460 He's an engineer from Dallas and he, oh, you know, just happened to be someone who worked

16:15.460 --> 16:19.000 for the oil and gas industry for over 45 years.

16:19.000 --> 16:24.640 So that you have a clear understanding of who this man was representing.

16:24.640 --> 16:31.200 He was representing the Texas Energy Council and that is a league of 35 oil and gas industry

16:31.200 --> 16:32.560 organizations.

16:32.560 --> 16:34.600 They have over 5,000 members.

16:34.600 --> 16:39.920 The Texas Energy Council had recruited 17 experts with varying backgrounds.

16:39.920 --> 16:44.520 And all of these people agreed that oil and gas should be portrayed in a balanced way.

16:44.520 --> 16:46.920 I don't know what the hell that means.

16:46.920 --> 16:48.620 You know, they just want it to be vague.

16:48.620 --> 16:53.840 This is a nice way of saying the way I read it, that they don't want oil and gas industries

16:53.840 --> 16:59.180 to be represented in a negative light due to their direct involvement in climate change.

16:59.180 --> 17:05.760 So their goal, this is taken from their, essentially taken from their website when you read between

17:05.760 --> 17:06.760 the lines.

17:06.760 --> 17:11.220 Their goal is to downplay the seriousness of climate change, to pass on the blame to

17:11.220 --> 17:19.320 other industries and countries, and most reprehensibly, and to delay actions that would mitigate climate

17:19.320 --> 17:20.320 change.

17:20.320 --> 17:21.320 How about that?

17:21.320 --> 17:22.620 That's what these people are about.

17:22.620 --> 17:27.760 So Unger suggested to the board that they remove any mention of social justice and ethics

17:27.760 --> 17:29.880 in these science classes.

17:29.880 --> 17:33.680 He proposed that they include a cost-benefit analysis.

17:33.680 --> 17:35.520 This is what, this is the way that he wanted this.

17:35.520 --> 17:36.520 Oh yeah?

17:36.520 --> 17:37.520 Yeah.

17:37.520 --> 17:38.520 Wait, wait until I read this.

17:38.520 --> 17:39.520 Yeah, let's go down that road.

17:39.520 --> 17:40.520 I mean.

17:40.520 --> 17:44.540 I know this is not going to end well for him if we do a cost-benefit analysis.

17:44.540 --> 17:50.160 So he goes on to explain how solar and wind also have negative aspects and that all energy

17:50.160 --> 17:54.560 sources should be looked at from a cost-benefit perspective.

17:54.560 --> 17:56.860 This of course is goddamn absurd, right?

17:56.860 --> 17:58.800 It's a false equivalence.

17:58.800 --> 18:02.800 Wind and solar produce a fraction of the greenhouse gases that gas and oil do.

18:02.800 --> 18:04.600 I mean, a fraction.

18:04.600 --> 18:08.680 Comparing negative aspects of oil, gas, wind, and solar is a complete waste of time.

18:08.680 --> 18:13.200 And it most certainly is not the conversation and not what we want students focusing on.

18:13.200 --> 18:16.760 Oh, let's do a cost analysis of these different sources of energy.

18:16.760 --> 18:17.760 Yeah, sure.

18:17.760 --> 18:21.280 Well, Jay, I'll push back on that, let me push back on that.

18:21.280 --> 18:25.800 I think that's fine as long as you do it accurately, right?

18:25.800 --> 18:32.880 If you did a full cost-benefit analysis, including the externalized costs of climate change.

18:32.880 --> 18:33.880 That's the key.

18:33.880 --> 18:40.040 Wind and solar come out way on top, you know, as well as, you know, geothermal, hydroelectric

18:40.040 --> 18:43.480 and nuclear, anything that's low carbon.

18:43.480 --> 18:49.040 And the massive carbon-emitting energies are, you know, just because of health care costs

18:49.040 --> 18:50.520 on the one side and the other.

18:50.520 --> 18:54.000 Steve, you're talking, but you're going into detail that they don't want and that they've

18:54.000 --> 18:57.120 clearly represented that they don't want those kinds of details.

18:57.120 --> 19:02.640 They don't want them to, they don't want the students to be talking about explicitly understanding

19:02.640 --> 19:03.840 what the root cause is.

19:03.840 --> 19:05.960 They want, this is their whitewash.

19:05.960 --> 19:07.400 Oh, I know.

19:07.400 --> 19:12.100 But you can call them out, rather than saying, we don't want to talk cost versus cost-benefit

19:12.100 --> 19:15.680 analysis, you say, all right, we'll do, here's the cost-benefit analysis.

19:15.680 --> 19:17.600 I mean, these things have been published.

19:17.600 --> 19:21.720 Yeah, but I'm sure that they have a handy-dandy curriculum for that.

19:21.720 --> 19:22.720 Yeah.

19:22.720 --> 19:23.720 Well, that's the problem.

19:23.720 --> 19:26.880 You can't let the industry write the science curriculum.

19:26.880 --> 19:32.000 How about we just talk about the actual facts as scientists understand that?

19:32.000 --> 19:37.680 Well, but Steve, not only did this guy who was representing these oil and gas companies,

19:37.680 --> 19:42.740 not only did he not specifically want what you say, but there are people that were sitting

19:42.740 --> 19:43.740 on the board.

19:43.740 --> 19:49.320 Like the next day, the board met and they were considering, you know, all the talkback

19:49.320 --> 19:55.460 that they heard, and one of the people on the board proposed that they do what this

19:55.460 --> 19:56.460 guy said.

19:56.460 --> 19:57.460 You know what I mean?

19:57.460 --> 20:03.080 Like, yeah, let's do the cost-benefit analysis, aka let's whitewash this thing and make it

20:03.080 --> 20:04.440 sound benign.

20:04.440 --> 20:09.320 Fossil fuel industry professionals, you know, these people took an active part in each stage

20:09.320 --> 20:12.120 of the Texas science standards review process.

20:12.120 --> 20:16.240 Every single time that there was any way that they could say what they wanted to say and

20:16.240 --> 20:18.240 skew things, they did.

20:18.240 --> 20:22.600 Any time it was open to the public, they successfully influenced the curriculum of all age ranges

20:22.600 --> 20:23.600 in Texas.

20:23.600 --> 20:26.560 And they did all this during the public hearings that I told you about.

20:26.560 --> 20:30.400 Now other things they argued for was like, there's just a couple more examples and just

20:30.400 --> 20:32.960 so you know, this story keeps going.

20:32.960 --> 20:37.680 I'm just telling you like the basic backbone of it, but there is so many details in here

20:37.680 --> 20:41.280 of all the things that they did and all the language that they want to change and all

20:41.280 --> 20:42.320 this stuff.

20:42.320 --> 20:44.080 But here's a good example.

20:44.080 --> 20:48.400 They didn't want the words renewable or nonrenewable used.

20:48.400 --> 20:53.420 Instead, they wanted the curriculum to use the term natural resources.

20:53.420 --> 21:02.500 So everything, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and oil and gas, these are all natural resources.

21:02.500 --> 21:06.320 It's astounding when you read it and you see it in black and white.

21:06.320 --> 21:09.000 It's so crystal goddamn clear what they're trying to do.

21:09.000 --> 21:11.360 I mean, anybody that works for oil and gas.

21:11.360 --> 21:14.760 Yeah, I mean, it is absolutely, Steve, you hit the nail on the head.

21:14.760 --> 21:16.000 It's double plus good.

21:16.000 --> 21:20.960 So you add the first thing that I said, where Texas has a massive influence on all of the

21:20.960 --> 21:26.440 textbooks that happen in the United States, massive influence, then their curricula is

21:26.440 --> 21:31.760 profoundly altered by these people who are essentially lobbyists.

21:31.760 --> 21:35.520 If you think about it, they're acting just like lobbyists, special interest groups who

21:35.520 --> 21:40.520 want certain things handled in certain ways in classroom textbooks.

21:40.520 --> 21:43.120 So their industry won't get hurt.

21:43.120 --> 21:44.120 It's disgusting.

21:44.120 --> 21:45.680 How do we let this happen?

21:45.680 --> 21:46.680 You look at it-

21:46.680 --> 21:47.680 It's also brilliant, right?

21:47.680 --> 21:48.680 Get them while they're young.

21:48.680 --> 21:49.680 Of course, man.

21:49.680 --> 21:50.680 Of course.

21:50.680 --> 21:53.320 But it doesn't just affect Texas, it affects the whole country.

21:53.320 --> 21:58.920 And this is why we need skeptical activists everywhere.

21:58.920 --> 22:05.000 Because at some town meeting, and just so you understand, this wasn't like tens of thousands

22:05.000 --> 22:08.160 of people in this huge consortium.

22:08.160 --> 22:12.840 This conversation and these decisions were being made in a relatively small venue in

22:12.840 --> 22:13.840 a town in Texas.

22:13.840 --> 22:19.520 Yeah, that's why I really think that we need to protect that process of determining the

22:19.520 --> 22:21.200 curriculum and the textbooks and whatever.

22:21.200 --> 22:29.280 It really should be done by, you know, scientists should be determining what is science in terms

22:29.280 --> 22:30.280 of what gets taught.

22:30.280 --> 22:31.280 Yeah.

22:31.280 --> 22:33.160 I mean, it sounds obvious.

22:33.160 --> 22:39.220 And educators should be deciding like what is an age appropriate educational level.

22:39.220 --> 22:40.220 And it's okay.

22:40.220 --> 22:45.520 I mean, obviously, I'm not against parents having input, because parents should absolutely

22:45.520 --> 22:49.640 have supervision and input into what their kids are taught.

22:49.640 --> 22:54.240 But there's got to be standards, it can't just be like anybody with an objection gets

22:54.240 --> 22:57.800 to interfere with the entire educational system, you know.

22:57.800 --> 22:59.440 It's a minority rule again.

22:59.440 --> 23:00.440 Yeah, right.

23:00.440 --> 23:03.280 It's the tyranny of the vocal minority, basically.

23:03.280 --> 23:04.280 All right.

23:04.280 --> 23:05.760 Well, we're not going to fix this problem.

23:05.760 --> 23:08.560 But this is something we definitely have to keep our eye on.

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24:26.320 --> 24:27.320 All right, guys.

24:27.320 --> 24:28.320 Let's get back to the show.

Effects of Climate in US ()

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24:28.320 --> 24:35.200 Kara, so you're going to give us an update on how global warming is doing in the U.S.

24:35.200 --> 24:40.800 Basically, Jay, as I'm listening to you talking about these great lengths that these lobbyists

24:40.800 --> 24:48.840 are going to to, as Steve mentioned, double plus good our climate education for kiddos,

24:48.840 --> 24:56.320 it's super scary because a report was just released, a draft report that really shows

24:56.320 --> 24:59.160 just how dire things are.

24:59.160 --> 25:03.220 Probably one of the most dire reports I've come across thus far.

25:03.220 --> 25:07.040 So there's something called the National Climate Assessment.

25:07.040 --> 25:13.720 We're in the fifth version of it right now, and you can read about it at GlobalChange.gov.

25:13.720 --> 25:17.480 The National Climate Assessment is federally mandated.

25:17.480 --> 25:24.120 It's basically what the U.S. government is contributing to climate knowledge.

25:24.120 --> 25:30.640 And the final report is slated to be published late next year in 2023.

25:30.640 --> 25:35.080 It was actually pushed back because while Trump was in office, he tried to squash the

25:35.080 --> 25:36.960 entire project.

25:36.960 --> 25:38.360 But we did not let that happen.

25:38.360 --> 25:40.280 It just ended up getting pushed back.

25:40.280 --> 25:45.080 So it's coming out in 2023, but they release a draft report early so that it can be peer

25:45.080 --> 25:48.840 reviewed and so that individuals can comment publicly.

25:48.840 --> 25:50.560 So the draft report was released.

25:50.560 --> 25:53.520 It's 1,695 pages.

25:53.520 --> 25:55.000 I did not read it all.

25:55.000 --> 25:56.000 I know.

25:56.000 --> 25:57.000 I'm very sorry.

25:57.000 --> 25:58.000 It just came out on Monday.

25:58.000 --> 26:06.520 I don't know if I could possibly read that many pages in four days, even if I didn't

26:06.520 --> 26:09.520 have a full time job and a dissertation and work on two podcasts.

26:09.520 --> 26:12.760 And oh, yeah, by the way, I'm in the middle of a hurricane right now.

26:12.760 --> 26:13.760 Did you know?

26:13.760 --> 26:14.760 Did you know?

26:14.760 --> 26:15.760 Yeah.

26:15.760 --> 26:17.960 I'm connected to the guys on my phone because I don't have Wi-Fi.

26:17.960 --> 26:18.960 It's ridiculous.

26:18.960 --> 26:23.280 All this special pleading, oh my goodness.

26:23.280 --> 26:28.880 So looking at the National Climate Assessment, it's not good.

26:28.880 --> 26:34.240 Basically there are some big takeaways, but I wanted to point to one thing that a lot

26:34.240 --> 26:39.640 of people are reporting on, which is first the price tag.

26:39.640 --> 26:42.440 I mean, you mentioned the cost benefit analysis.

26:42.440 --> 26:45.000 What about just the cost of climate change?

26:45.000 --> 26:46.720 Yeah, it's going to be trillions.

26:46.720 --> 26:47.720 Oh my gosh.

26:47.720 --> 26:48.720 Okay.

26:48.720 --> 26:55.520 So historically we were averaging eight $1 billion, and I don't mean historically like

26:55.520 --> 26:56.520 a long time ago.

26:56.520 --> 26:58.640 I just mean like a decade ago.

26:58.640 --> 27:03.880 We were averaging eight $1 billion weather events every year.

27:03.880 --> 27:05.760 That's already really bad, right?

27:05.760 --> 27:08.720 Wait, wait, let me add this up.

27:08.720 --> 27:09.720 That's $8 billion.

27:09.720 --> 27:10.720 That's $8 billion.

27:10.720 --> 27:11.720 Yeah.

27:11.720 --> 27:13.440 In the last two years, we've had 80.

27:13.440 --> 27:20.880 So we're averaging a $1 billion weather disaster every three weeks in the United States.

27:20.880 --> 27:22.920 Is that because of inflation or?

27:22.920 --> 27:23.920 No.

27:23.920 --> 27:27.060 I'm pretty sure that's adjusted for inflation.

27:27.060 --> 27:30.400 Another big thing that's kind of just like drives us home, and then we'll get into some

27:30.400 --> 27:37.880 of the brass tacks and the nitty gritty, is that the US is actually experiencing warming

27:37.880 --> 27:44.280 68% faster than the rest of the world average.

27:44.280 --> 27:45.280 We're not-

27:45.280 --> 27:50.600 We had the warmest October that I remember, and November 5th was 70 degrees in Connecticut.

27:50.600 --> 27:51.600 That's nuts.

27:51.600 --> 27:53.240 Like I said, I'm in a hurricane right now.

27:53.240 --> 27:55.680 Hurricanes don't usually happen on November 10th.

27:55.680 --> 27:58.600 The hurricane season is usually over by now.

27:58.600 --> 27:59.880 By October, yeah.

27:59.880 --> 28:00.880 Yeah.

28:00.880 --> 28:08.640 So we're looking at the average temperature in the continental 48 being 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit,

28:08.640 --> 28:15.560 which is 1.4 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial averages, when the global average temperature

28:15.560 --> 28:19.480 is 1 degree Celsius over pre-industrial averages.

28:19.480 --> 28:24.840 Now this is to be expected because land warms faster than water.

28:24.840 --> 28:29.360 So land area is faster than the ocean, and also higher latitudes warm faster than lower

28:29.360 --> 28:30.360 latitudes.

28:30.360 --> 28:34.640 So you see this in other parts of the world as well.

28:34.640 --> 28:39.240 But when we're talking about these global averages, we tend to talk about them in terms

28:39.240 --> 28:40.240 of a global average.

28:40.240 --> 28:42.020 Well, that's not the case here.

28:42.020 --> 28:43.760 We're not looking at 1 degree Celsius right now.

28:43.760 --> 28:46.320 We're looking at 1.4 degrees Celsius right now.

28:46.320 --> 28:54.300 We're seeing so much bad stuff happening as a result of this runaway warming.

28:54.300 --> 28:58.160 So let's look at some of the highlights of this report.

28:58.160 --> 29:03.420 The first one is that obviously the way that climate change is affecting us here in the

29:03.420 --> 29:06.580 US is different depending on where you live.

29:06.580 --> 29:13.840 And we kind of already know this, but we're seeing terrible wildfires in the West.

29:13.840 --> 29:19.840 We are seeing terrible storm systems in both the Northeast and the Southeast.

29:19.840 --> 29:24.140 We're seeing terrible heat waves across most of the Midwest.

29:24.140 --> 29:28.840 And one thing that this report does, which is the exact opposite, Jay, of what they're

29:28.840 --> 29:35.080 trying to do in these Texas textbooks, is that they continuously bring it back to who

29:35.080 --> 29:38.640 is the most at risk, who is getting harmed by this.

29:38.640 --> 29:45.160 And we know that communities that are already overburdened, so we're talking people of color,

29:45.160 --> 29:50.900 low income communities, indigenous people, these are the places where they're feeling

29:50.900 --> 29:52.040 it the worst.

29:52.040 --> 30:00.520 It's that really terrible irony that the people causing the most destruction are the most

30:00.520 --> 30:02.280 protected from it.

30:02.280 --> 30:07.140 The people that are doing the least to contribute to global climate change are the most vulnerable

30:07.140 --> 30:08.140 to it.

30:08.140 --> 30:09.840 They're really getting hurt.

30:09.840 --> 30:12.880 And if you are sitting there saying, I don't really notice a difference, I don't really

30:12.880 --> 30:16.120 feel this, I've been lucky, it's because of your privilege.

30:16.120 --> 30:17.200 You have been lucky.

30:17.200 --> 30:19.240 A lot of people aren't so lucky.

30:19.240 --> 30:23.520 One thing that we never think about here in the US is water.

30:23.520 --> 30:24.780 Water is free.

30:24.780 --> 30:26.680 You just open the tap.

30:26.680 --> 30:31.680 People don't think about the fact that water is actually a precious resource and it's being

30:31.680 --> 30:32.680 threatened.

30:32.680 --> 30:40.000 So when we have extreme rainfall, extreme flooding, that equates to less clean drinking

30:40.000 --> 30:41.000 water.

30:41.000 --> 30:42.000 Just straight up.

30:42.000 --> 30:46.320 We're seeing that salt water, because the seas are rising, we're having these horrible

30:46.320 --> 30:51.840 storm surges and aquifers are getting polluted with salt water, which means then we have

30:51.840 --> 30:53.000 to desalinate.

30:53.000 --> 30:54.700 We can't drink salt water.

30:54.700 --> 30:59.080 So if salt water is getting into our aquifers, if it's getting into our wells, if it's getting

30:59.080 --> 31:04.320 into areas where we usually hold fresh water, all that fresh water is now poisoned, quote

31:04.320 --> 31:05.320 unquote.

31:05.320 --> 31:07.720 We have to desalinate it to make it drinkable again.

31:07.720 --> 31:15.240 We're seeing that floods are taking basically toxins and flooding them into our wells and

31:15.240 --> 31:16.920 into our water table.

31:16.920 --> 31:20.480 So we're not able to drink the water that we should be able to drink.

31:20.480 --> 31:26.400 And we're also seeing that there are a lot of algal blooms that are existing at a higher

31:26.400 --> 31:29.100 rate than they ever did in the past.

31:29.100 --> 31:33.560 Just because there's more water in certain places, more water doesn't necessarily mean

31:33.560 --> 31:34.920 better.

31:34.920 --> 31:39.200 And then of course we know the opposite side of that problem, which is, I mean I know this

31:39.200 --> 31:44.760 very well being an LA person, like drought is real.

31:44.760 --> 31:45.760 It's real.

31:45.760 --> 31:50.560 We are running out of water in a lot of the places like these huge reservoirs that used

31:50.560 --> 31:53.640 to be full just aren't and they're devastating images.

31:53.640 --> 31:58.180 I mean just literally go online and look at before and after images.

31:58.180 --> 32:01.880 You can see where the water level used to be for like decades and decades and decades

32:01.880 --> 32:04.960 and then it's just receded, receded, receded.

32:04.960 --> 32:11.460 We know that there, I mean this is the, this point about kind of extreme events causing

32:11.460 --> 32:14.040 a lot of damage to homes and property.

32:14.040 --> 32:18.480 We kind of already touched on that with the increase in billion dollar events.

32:18.480 --> 32:29.720 In 2021 there were $20 billion plus events that collectively ended up costing $145 billion

32:29.720 --> 32:33.780 and killed almost 700 people just in the US.

32:33.780 --> 32:39.240 So another way to conceptualize that statistic that I gave you before, the US experienced

32:39.240 --> 32:47.040 $7.7 billion disasters, so $7.71 billion disasters annually over the past four decades, but in

32:47.040 --> 32:51.800 the past five years now it's 18 events each year.

32:51.800 --> 32:55.360 So that translates to once every three weeks, like I mentioned.

32:55.360 --> 32:57.760 And again, this doesn't hit everybody equally.

32:57.760 --> 33:01.960 Obviously poorer neighborhoods, neighborhoods with less are getting hit harder, neighborhoods

33:01.960 --> 33:07.160 who are less likely to rebuild as it is and less likely to mitigate these effects, right?

33:07.160 --> 33:10.800 This is an important one that I think we don't talk about enough, which is climate migration

33:10.800 --> 33:15.760 and climate displacement because I think we think of this as something that happens elsewhere

33:15.760 --> 33:22.160 in the world, but it's happening here, it's happening now and it's only going to get worse.

33:22.160 --> 33:25.440 So we've seen it like with Hurricane Maria really recently.

33:25.440 --> 33:30.300 I mean every major hurricane we see that there's a terrible displacement and migration because

33:30.300 --> 33:32.140 people lose their homes.

33:32.140 --> 33:34.380 They don't have a place to live anymore.

33:34.380 --> 33:36.640 And the sad thing is there's nowhere for them to go.

33:36.640 --> 33:39.420 The housing market is bananas right now.

33:39.420 --> 33:42.560 Interest rates are bananas because of inflation.

33:42.560 --> 33:46.860 Post COVID there's some real difficulty and instability in the job market.

33:46.860 --> 33:48.160 It's scary.

33:48.160 --> 33:55.440 It's really scary that people who have long felt like they built a life for themselves,

33:55.440 --> 33:59.780 a stable life for themselves are being forced out of where they live.

33:59.780 --> 34:02.780 And obviously who's going to carry that burden?

34:02.780 --> 34:04.660 We have to have government intervention.

34:04.660 --> 34:10.200 We have to be able as a community to take care of individuals and we're not doing a

34:10.200 --> 34:17.380 great job of that, but ultimately massive explosions in homelessness is devastating

34:17.380 --> 34:22.080 for the people who are displaced, but it's also devastating for the economy.

34:22.080 --> 34:25.240 Obviously this is also a growing public health threat and this is like another one of those

34:25.240 --> 34:30.740 externalized costs that you mentioned before, Steve, higher rates of rabies, higher rates

34:30.740 --> 34:36.060 of Lyme disease, higher rates of dengue, higher rates of Zika, higher rates of chikungunya.

34:36.060 --> 34:42.960 And that's just because of mosquitoes and different kind of ecological, different organisms

34:42.960 --> 34:47.860 that used to live in certain ecological niches moving to areas where they never lived before

34:47.860 --> 34:54.000 or exploding in population because of the changes in their evolutionary pressure.

34:54.000 --> 35:00.020 You add to that wildfire smoke, you add to that certain agricultural toxins and things

35:00.020 --> 35:02.460 like that being run off into the water.

35:02.460 --> 35:05.980 It's scary how much of a public health risk climate change is.

35:05.980 --> 35:07.820 People get sick because of climate change.

35:07.820 --> 35:10.100 There are a lot of downstream effects.

35:10.100 --> 35:13.220 And one thing that we don't often think about is it's not just us, right?

35:13.220 --> 35:19.600 Like we are not the only organisms who are negatively affected and really the canary

35:19.600 --> 35:23.300 has been in the coal mine for a long time and we've refused to look at it.

35:23.300 --> 35:29.700 A lot of amphibian species, bird species, fish species, plant species are either being

35:29.700 --> 35:36.360 completely driven out of their native range to sort of like higher latitudes or they're

35:36.360 --> 35:39.620 just going extinct at record numbers.

35:39.620 --> 35:45.020 Just these ecosystems can't adapt as fast as they need to because the change is outpacing

35:45.020 --> 35:48.600 evolution, like the natural pace of evolution.

35:48.600 --> 35:49.600 We know that.

35:49.600 --> 35:51.620 This is anthropogenic climate change.

35:51.620 --> 35:54.100 This isn't naturally occurring climate change.

35:54.100 --> 35:58.040 So these organisms can't adapt fast enough and you end up seeing, you know, like there's

35:58.040 --> 36:02.140 so many examples we can point to, but like too many lionfish in the ocean, too much algae

36:02.140 --> 36:06.660 in the ocean, too many sea urchins in the ocean and they just like take over.

36:06.660 --> 36:07.660 We see coral bleaching.

36:07.660 --> 36:11.460 We see all of these negative downstream effects.

36:11.460 --> 36:17.260 And then the last point that's made, which is always the last point that's made, is there

36:17.260 --> 36:21.260 is still a chance that we can do something about this.

36:21.260 --> 36:22.820 There is a chance.

36:22.820 --> 36:28.500 We probably can't do things incrementally the way we have been.

36:28.500 --> 36:29.860 It's just not fast enough.

36:29.860 --> 36:34.300 If we keep doing the incremental, like even Biden, I think his new commitment is something

36:34.300 --> 36:35.740 like reducing global emissions.

36:35.740 --> 36:39.280 I'm doing this from memory, but I think it's reducing global emissions by half, greenhouse

36:39.280 --> 36:45.940 emissions by half by 2030 and net zero by 2050, which is like we're not on track to

36:45.940 --> 36:47.300 meet that at all.

36:47.300 --> 36:51.840 Like when you look at our pace, we're nowhere near it, but that's like the new standard.

36:51.840 --> 36:56.880 If we do that, it's maybe going to be, I mean, here's what we know.

36:56.880 --> 37:01.740 If we stop putting out greenhouse gases, we stop global climate change.

37:01.740 --> 37:02.780 That's how it works.

37:02.780 --> 37:07.740 There's a little bit of a blowback effect right after where like the effects are going

37:07.740 --> 37:13.460 to continue on, but they won't necessarily run away.

37:13.460 --> 37:18.060 If we stop putting out greenhouse gases, there are no more greenhouse gases being put out

37:18.060 --> 37:22.900 above these levels, and then we can start to kind of fix and heal.

37:22.900 --> 37:27.580 But none of that is going to happen until we stop, and the truth is we're not stopping.

37:27.580 --> 37:32.620 We're slowing down, but we're beyond the point where slowing down is going to do anything.

37:32.620 --> 37:33.620 We have to stop.

37:33.620 --> 37:34.620 Yeah.

37:34.620 --> 37:39.280 So, Carol, I've been doing a lot of research on that very question, like basically where

37:39.280 --> 37:47.180 are we in our efforts to slow down climate change, and there's actually some good news

37:47.180 --> 37:48.540 here.

37:48.540 --> 37:54.340 I think the bad news is that the negative effects at any given temperature rise is worse

37:54.340 --> 37:55.640 than we thought.

37:55.640 --> 38:03.060 So 2.0 is worse than we thought 2.0 was going to be 10 years ago, but the projection of

38:03.060 --> 38:05.400 where we are heading is getting better.

38:05.400 --> 38:12.380 So 10 years ago, the business as usual projection, like if we don't make substantial changes

38:12.380 --> 38:18.820 to what's happening, was that we would end up somewhere between like three to four or

38:18.820 --> 38:24.220 even higher degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, right?

38:24.220 --> 38:34.580 Now today, the business as usual projection is more like 2.3, 2.4 degrees, and what business

38:34.580 --> 38:42.380 as usual is, is if all of the countries do not reverse policies that they've already

38:42.380 --> 38:46.780 funded to mitigate climate change, so all they have to do is just keep doing what they've

38:46.780 --> 38:53.020 already actually funded, we'll settle in somewhere around 2.3, 2.4.

38:53.020 --> 38:59.560 If they keep all of their commitments that they've made at COP26 last year, even ones

38:59.560 --> 39:06.900 that haven't been funded yet by their government, we'll keep warming below 2.0, probably like

39:06.900 --> 39:10.060 somewhere around 1.8.

39:10.060 --> 39:18.100 We're not on track to get to 1.5, to keep it below 1.5, which was the Paris Accord goal,

39:18.100 --> 39:22.700 but they didn't commit to doing things that would achieve that goal.

39:22.700 --> 39:26.980 The commitments only keep it to maybe 1.8, and they've only funded enough to keep it

39:26.980 --> 39:29.380 to like 2.3, 2.4.

39:29.380 --> 39:32.140 That's still a lot better than where we were 10 years ago.

39:32.140 --> 39:35.340 Yeah, but remember, the reason it's better than where it was 10 years ago is because

39:35.340 --> 39:37.700 we've been doing so much.

39:37.700 --> 39:39.140 I know, because we've been doing things.

39:39.140 --> 39:40.660 I know that that's the point.

39:40.660 --> 39:41.660 And that is good.

39:41.660 --> 39:42.660 That's very good.

39:42.660 --> 39:43.660 Yeah.

39:43.660 --> 39:54.060 If we continue to up our game, I think at this point I would say that we have a good

39:54.060 --> 39:59.420 chance of keeping it below 2.0, 1.5, probably not.

39:59.420 --> 40:05.920 That would take a massive effort that no one really thinks we have the political will around

40:05.920 --> 40:07.880 the world to do it.

40:07.880 --> 40:11.980 Half of the solution is going to be technological progress.

40:11.980 --> 40:14.440 Things are progressing nicely.

40:14.440 --> 40:22.040 And the other half is things like Biden's climate change mitigation funding, which is

40:22.040 --> 40:23.300 making a difference.

40:23.300 --> 40:25.780 The industry responded.

40:25.780 --> 40:37.020 They're investing in transitioning to lower carbon technologies in response to that funding.

40:37.020 --> 40:42.040 And ultimately, here's the point of all that.

40:42.040 --> 40:43.780 It's going to hurt a little bit.

40:43.780 --> 40:46.020 We have to make sacrifices right now.

40:46.020 --> 40:47.020 We have to.

40:47.020 --> 40:48.020 I'm not sure I agree with that.

40:48.020 --> 40:49.020 I'm not sure I agree with that.

40:49.020 --> 40:50.020 Are you serious, Steve?

40:50.020 --> 40:51.020 Yeah, I am.

40:51.020 --> 40:52.020 I am serious.

40:52.020 --> 40:53.420 It's business as usual.

40:53.420 --> 40:59.460 No, there's a lot of territory between sacrificing and business as usual.

40:59.460 --> 41:01.420 We don't have to really sacrifice.

41:01.420 --> 41:04.340 All we have to do is invest wisely.

41:04.340 --> 41:05.340 That's it.

41:05.340 --> 41:10.260 I'm talking about personal experiential sacrifice.

41:10.260 --> 41:11.260 I don't think that the individuals-

41:11.260 --> 41:12.980 Give up your gas car.

41:12.980 --> 41:14.340 Don't use as much water.

41:14.340 --> 41:15.560 Yes, we do have to.

41:15.560 --> 41:17.780 We cannot keep living the way we've been living.

41:17.780 --> 41:18.780 We can't.

41:18.780 --> 41:20.340 So water is a separate issue.

41:20.340 --> 41:26.260 There are already places that are experiencing water insufficiency, I mean obviously around

41:26.260 --> 41:29.580 the world, but even in the US now, since that's what you're talking about.

41:29.580 --> 41:35.780 So yes, there are populations even in developed nations that are already paying the price

41:35.780 --> 41:38.220 for existing global warming.

41:38.220 --> 41:42.780 But I'm saying in terms of the solution, the solutions don't have to be sacrifice.

41:42.780 --> 41:45.460 The solutions really are just being smart.

41:45.460 --> 41:49.380 It's just investing money where we will get the most bang for the buck.

41:49.380 --> 41:57.140 If we do that, if we invested intelligently and we, for example, invest and this is why

41:57.140 --> 42:01.980 I think it was called the Inflation Reduction Act, but it included a lot of climate change

42:01.980 --> 42:03.940 mitigation funding.

42:03.940 --> 42:08.860 I read through that whole thing, there's a lot of smart funding in there that is going

42:08.860 --> 42:10.220 to move us in the right direction.

42:10.220 --> 42:14.100 We need a lot more of that and we need a lot of other countries to do that.

42:14.100 --> 42:18.580 But if we invest and upgrade in the grid, we continue our investments in grid storage,

42:18.580 --> 42:24.500 we continue to invest in building, build out the wind and solar as fast as we can to get

42:24.500 --> 42:31.060 to that 30 to 40% rate and then push it further by investing in the grid and grid storage.

42:31.060 --> 42:38.420 If we start investing in nuclear and geothermal and hydroelectric, we can get there.

42:38.420 --> 42:43.860 We incentivize the steel making industry and the cement making industry to continue to

42:43.860 --> 42:48.380 develop lower carbon alternatives, which there's already a lot of science there to work with

42:48.380 --> 42:54.320 – we absolutely can get there and we can do it without each individual having to make

42:54.320 --> 42:55.320 a big sacrifice.

42:55.320 --> 43:05.740 In fact, we'll be making less sacrifice because it'll be a lot easier on the individual

43:05.740 --> 43:08.140 than the resulting climate change is going to be.

43:08.140 --> 43:11.740 Of course it's going to be easier on certain individuals than the resulting climate change

43:11.740 --> 43:16.860 is going to be on certain individuals, but I fundamentally disagree with this mentality.

43:16.860 --> 43:21.180 I really, really don't believe that we can do everything on the other side of it.

43:21.180 --> 43:27.660 It's not all going to be industry-like free market options for preventing these kinds

43:27.660 --> 43:29.260 of outcomes.

43:29.260 --> 43:34.900 We cannot continue to live the extractive and consumptive lifestyles that we live.

43:34.900 --> 43:35.900 We can't.

43:35.900 --> 43:37.780 That's the reason this happened.

43:37.780 --> 43:42.780 We have to be mindful of how we live our lives because otherwise we're constantly going

43:42.780 --> 43:49.700 to see industries who claim that they're doing this in the best interest of their consumer

43:49.700 --> 43:52.140 to make sure that they get a pass.

43:52.140 --> 43:53.140 And I disagree.

43:53.140 --> 43:55.580 I just don't think those things are mutually exclusive.

43:55.580 --> 44:00.100 When I talk about making sacrifices, I don't mean that you have to die for this cause.

44:00.100 --> 44:05.260 I mean that you can't keep living as if climate change doesn't exist.

44:05.260 --> 44:08.140 I don't feel like buying an electric car was a sacrifice.

44:08.140 --> 44:11.820 I actually enjoy my electric car better than I do any gas car I've ever owned.

44:11.820 --> 44:17.100 Well, a lot of people don't feel that way, and that's what I'm talking about.

44:17.100 --> 44:21.340 A lot of people don't want to put a flow reducer on their showerhead.

44:21.340 --> 44:25.780 A lot of people don't want to turn their water off when they're brushing their teeth.

44:25.780 --> 44:30.900 I know they sound stupid and small, but the reason that we have to make these massive

44:30.900 --> 44:39.980 regulatory jumps in order to wildly mitigate, because the main outcome of this report is

44:39.980 --> 44:41.780 we cannot keep doing incremental shit.

44:41.780 --> 44:42.900 It's not working.

44:42.900 --> 44:50.260 We have to revolutionize the way that we want to put a stop to this.

44:50.260 --> 44:53.260 We do fundamentally disagree on this issue, because I think that you're wrong.

44:53.260 --> 44:57.860 I also think that your strategy will fail, because people are not going to do it.

44:57.860 --> 45:01.220 And I think my strategy will succeed, because people will do it.

45:01.220 --> 45:07.780 But you're also looking at it like it's a binary, like it's a dialectic, and it's not.

45:07.780 --> 45:10.280 Both of these things have to happen.

45:10.280 --> 45:13.420 We have to fundamentally change our approach to climate change, which young people, by

45:13.420 --> 45:14.900 the way, are.

45:14.900 --> 45:15.900 Young people get it.

45:15.900 --> 45:16.900 Yeah, I agree.

45:16.900 --> 45:20.940 But I think, and I agree, I think we need to science the shit out of it and moneyball

45:20.940 --> 45:26.240 the shit out of it, meaning that we need to say, what is the shortest path between where

45:26.240 --> 45:34.040 we are now and a massive decarbonization of our electrical sector and transportation

45:34.040 --> 45:37.580 sector and industrial sector, right?

45:37.580 --> 45:45.460 And that path is through picking the low-hanging fruit and making the most cost-effective decisions

45:45.460 --> 45:46.460 possible.

45:46.460 --> 45:47.460 Oh, hugely.

45:47.460 --> 45:51.180 And that's also the most politically expedient way to get there.

45:51.180 --> 45:54.540 And if our message is, all right, guys, we all have to sacrifice, we're going to get

45:54.540 --> 45:55.540 nowhere.

45:55.540 --> 45:57.420 It's just not going to happen.

45:57.420 --> 46:02.120 I hear what you're saying, like it's a messaging problem, but ultimately we do have to sacrifice.

46:02.120 --> 46:06.260 The truth of the matter is that may be the low-hanging fruit.

46:06.260 --> 46:11.220 It may be the most obvious and the most effective algorithm.

46:11.220 --> 46:16.520 But if people don't willfully do it, it's moot.

46:16.520 --> 46:17.520 And ultimately-

46:17.520 --> 46:21.500 Yeah, but that's why I think the solution can't be, all right, we need 8 billion people

46:21.500 --> 46:22.500 to change their behavior.

46:22.500 --> 46:23.500 That can't be the approach.

46:23.500 --> 46:24.500 That will never work.

46:24.500 --> 46:25.500 I never said that was the solution.

46:25.500 --> 46:26.900 I mean, that's not going to work.

46:26.900 --> 46:27.900 We can't-

46:27.900 --> 46:28.900 You're really minimizing what I said.

46:28.900 --> 46:31.620 No, I'm just saying, well, maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.

46:31.620 --> 46:35.460 You're saying we all have to work together to make this work, and we all have to sacrifice

46:35.460 --> 46:36.700 individually.

46:36.700 --> 46:42.260 Just from a practical point of view, getting a lot of people to do something is a failed

46:42.260 --> 46:43.260 approach.

46:43.260 --> 46:44.260 It never works.

46:44.260 --> 46:46.420 I would rather pass one law than get-

46:46.420 --> 46:49.860 Yeah, but that's how you get people to do stuff, is you regulate the shit out of them.

46:49.860 --> 46:52.020 Yeah, I agree with that as well, but I mean-

46:52.020 --> 46:54.980 But I'm saying we need to regulate things that actually might hurt a little bit.

46:54.980 --> 46:59.700 We need to stop going, oh, it's never going to be popular, so we can't do it.

46:59.700 --> 47:02.180 I'm scared of the people we keep putting in power.

47:02.180 --> 47:08.420 Yeah, but you're just sort of pushing, kicking that can one leg down, if you say, all right,

47:08.420 --> 47:13.460 we're going to vote for people who are going to tell us things we don't want to hear.

47:13.460 --> 47:15.180 It's also not going to work.

47:15.180 --> 47:16.180 You're going to end up with-

47:16.180 --> 47:17.180 Because they won't vote for those people.

47:17.180 --> 47:18.520 With the global warming denials.

47:18.520 --> 47:23.900 If you say, all right, listen, all we have to do is invest wisely, and also I think we

47:23.900 --> 47:26.820 should be putting the burden on the industry, not the individuals.

47:26.820 --> 47:27.820 Of course we should.

47:27.820 --> 47:29.980 We should regulate the industries.

47:29.980 --> 47:33.420 I personally think we should just price carbon, and all the experts agree that that's the

47:33.420 --> 47:34.420 best way to fix this.

47:34.420 --> 47:36.940 Carbon tax, of course that's the way to do it.

47:36.940 --> 47:39.100 But nobody wants to do it, unfortunately.

47:39.100 --> 47:44.300 I'm not saying that this is a marketing strategy, is to tell people it's going to hurt.

47:44.300 --> 47:46.060 Of course that's not what I'm saying.

47:46.060 --> 47:50.100 What I'm saying is that we all need to be realistic, and stop living in a Pollyanna

47:50.100 --> 47:53.840 world where we're not willing to have it hurt.

47:53.840 --> 47:58.220 The things we have to do as a society are going to hurt a little bit, and if we sit

47:58.220 --> 48:02.020 here and cross our arms and say, I'm not willing to make any changes.

48:02.020 --> 48:06.140 I want to live the same extractive, consumptive life I've always lived.

48:06.140 --> 48:08.820 I'm sorry, we're not going to get out of this.

48:08.820 --> 48:10.400 That's how we got into it.

48:10.400 --> 48:13.660 My perspective is, I'll just say this, it's not necessarily mutually exclusive to what

48:13.660 --> 48:22.580 you're saying, but I would say just strategically, I would say let's do all the win-wins first.

48:22.580 --> 48:23.580 Let's do all-

48:23.580 --> 48:25.260 Yeah, and I would say we should have already done all of those.

48:25.260 --> 48:26.260 I agree.

48:26.260 --> 48:27.660 All of this we should have done 20 years ago.

48:27.660 --> 48:30.540 There's no question about that.

48:30.540 --> 48:36.460 We should go back in time 20 years and completely change the course of what we've done the last

48:36.460 --> 48:37.460 two decades.

48:37.460 --> 48:38.460 I like that plan.

48:38.460 --> 48:46.860 Failing that, again, the quickest path is first going through all the things that do

48:46.860 --> 48:48.340 not require sacrifice.

48:48.340 --> 48:50.420 They just require being smart.

48:50.420 --> 48:56.260 Let's do those things, and if we also then have to make some sacrifice after all of that,

48:56.260 --> 48:58.220 that's fine, we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

48:58.220 --> 49:02.340 I guess what I'm scared of is that 50% of the country thinks that those smart, low-hanging

49:02.340 --> 49:05.380 fruit things are sacrifices for them.

49:05.380 --> 49:09.060 Well, that's where messaging can help.

49:09.060 --> 49:13.220 If you ask people, why don't you want to drive an electric car, they give bullshit reasons

49:13.220 --> 49:16.300 that aren't true because they have misconceptions about it.

49:16.300 --> 49:18.120 They go, oh, the range isn't enough.

49:18.120 --> 49:19.120 That's not true.

49:19.120 --> 49:25.460 I think my thing is unless we're on the bleeding edge of this, we're already behind.

49:25.460 --> 49:30.580 But as I said, it's actually not as bad as it was 10 years ago.

49:30.580 --> 49:37.740 The thing is doing the things that we're doing and the technological progress has significantly

49:37.740 --> 49:41.580 improved our position, and it has.

49:41.580 --> 49:42.580 It just has.

49:42.580 --> 49:43.840 And we have to update the models constantly.

49:43.840 --> 49:50.740 And Catherine Hayhoe, who's quoted a lot in this one WAFO article, she basically makes

49:50.740 --> 49:54.700 the point, and I think it's an important point because we don't do this enough, that like

49:54.700 --> 49:56.960 this is all just modeling.

49:56.960 --> 50:00.700 We don't know if there's a difference between 1.6 and 1.7.

50:00.700 --> 50:01.700 These are just rants.

50:01.700 --> 50:06.980 Yes, there's data that goes into this, but these are just arbitrary cutoffs.

50:06.980 --> 50:08.980 It's all modeling.

50:08.980 --> 50:14.180 The bad news is the effect of the temperature is worse than we thought, but where we're

50:14.180 --> 50:20.180 going to land is better than it was.

50:20.180 --> 50:26.680 I do think that the only ultimate solution is technological, but what we really should

50:26.680 --> 50:32.620 be focusing on is just making that happen as quickly as possible by investing optimally

50:32.620 --> 50:35.640 and regulating industry optimally.

50:35.640 --> 50:37.680 And we're not there yet.

50:37.680 --> 50:39.340 We're moving in the right direction at least.

50:39.340 --> 50:44.940 Kara, my concern is, well, first let me say I really do agree with what you're saying.

50:44.940 --> 50:52.540 I would love it if we made palpable, very, very strong changes to our society in order

50:52.540 --> 50:54.700 to help the environment, absolutely.

50:54.700 --> 51:00.220 And I would be willing to sacrifice and spend more money on a lot of things and make changes

51:00.220 --> 51:07.340 at this point because I feel how desperate the situation is just like you do, and I want

51:07.340 --> 51:08.340 that.

51:08.340 --> 51:13.580 I honestly don't think that most people in the United States are capable of doing what

51:13.580 --> 51:14.940 I just said.

51:14.940 --> 51:18.320 But like even in the U.S., what are we going to do, you say, oh yeah, we should let gas

51:18.320 --> 51:19.320 be $5 a gallon.

51:19.320 --> 51:20.860 It's like, yeah, I could survive that.

51:20.860 --> 51:24.620 My point is, but there's a lot of people who can't survive that, like they literally cannot

51:24.620 --> 51:25.620 afford that.

51:25.620 --> 51:28.900 I totally turn off the water when I'm brushing my teeth.

51:28.900 --> 51:29.900 Thank you.

51:29.900 --> 51:31.460 I don't even brush my teeth with water anymore.

51:31.460 --> 51:32.460 Because of you, Kara.

51:32.460 --> 51:33.460 Thank you.

51:33.460 --> 51:34.460 I'm not kidding.

51:34.460 --> 51:35.460 Yeah, that makes me so happy.

51:35.460 --> 51:36.460 I just gargle with baking soda.

51:36.460 --> 51:39.940 I thought about that for so many times, like, yep, got to shut it down.

51:39.940 --> 51:43.300 I remember what Kara said and that was like a habit.

51:43.300 --> 51:44.300 I love it.

51:44.300 --> 51:45.300 We installed new toilets in our house.

51:45.300 --> 51:46.300 All.

51:46.300 --> 51:47.300 Low flow, baby.

51:47.300 --> 51:48.300 Yeah.

51:48.300 --> 51:49.300 Go with the low.

51:49.300 --> 51:50.300 All right, guys.

51:50.300 --> 51:51.300 Let's move on.

51:51.300 --> 51:52.300 Healthy discourse.

Closest Black Hole ()

• [link_URL TITLE]

51:52.300 --> 51:53.300 All right, Bob.

51:53.300 --> 51:57.700 I understand that astronomers have detected the closest black hole to the Earth.

51:57.700 --> 51:59.220 Like that Disney movie from 1979?

51:59.220 --> 52:01.100 You understand nothing.

52:01.100 --> 52:07.820 I will say, I will say boffins baffled by black hole in backyard.

52:07.820 --> 52:08.820 Oh, Bob.

52:08.820 --> 52:10.460 I like that.

52:10.460 --> 52:17.060 So non alliteratively and less pithily, scientists have found the closest black hole to the Earth,

52:17.060 --> 52:20.060 three times closer, in fact, than the previous record holder.

52:20.060 --> 52:22.360 And it comes wrapped in a mystery, however.

52:22.360 --> 52:26.320 It's orbited by a sun like star and it shouldn't be there.

52:26.320 --> 52:29.660 So how did these two crazy kids get together?

52:29.660 --> 52:34.320 This was published in the monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, led by

52:34.320 --> 52:39.700 Kareem El Badri, is an astrophysicist at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

52:39.700 --> 52:43.740 So this black hole is called Gaia BH1.

52:43.740 --> 52:46.020 It's 1600 light years away.

52:46.020 --> 52:47.140 And you know, that's a lot.

52:47.140 --> 52:50.620 That's like, you know, nine thousand and a half trillion miles.

52:50.620 --> 52:53.940 But you know, it isn't a lot at the same time.

52:53.940 --> 52:59.540 The National Science Foundation's Newar Lab said it's in our cosmic backyard, which it

52:59.540 --> 53:00.540 really is.

53:00.540 --> 53:02.460 Sixteen hundred light years is not a lot.

53:02.460 --> 53:08.100 It also has a binary partner that is very much like the sun and is about as far from

53:08.100 --> 53:10.620 the black hole as we are from our sun.

53:10.620 --> 53:16.180 So take our solar system, take away all the planets and throw the sun where we are and

53:16.180 --> 53:18.540 put a big black hole where the sun is.

53:18.540 --> 53:20.100 And that's this system.

53:20.100 --> 53:21.280 So that's basically it.

53:21.280 --> 53:27.020 So the black hole has 10 times the mass of our sun, making it a stellar mass black hole,

53:27.020 --> 53:30.660 which typically ranges from five to 100 solar masses.

53:30.660 --> 53:35.820 And we've only detected a handful of stellar mass black holes in the Milky Way.

53:35.820 --> 53:40.860 And most are active, meaning that they pull matter from a companion and that process releases

53:40.860 --> 53:43.420 intense radiation like X-rays.

53:43.420 --> 53:49.580 But now not all stellar mass black holes that inhabit binary systems are actively feeding

53:49.580 --> 53:50.580 though.

53:50.580 --> 53:52.060 It's kind of like Jay.

53:52.060 --> 53:57.140 There are times during family dinners when he's not actively feeding, but you need specialized

53:57.140 --> 53:59.980 instrumentation to detect that.

53:59.980 --> 54:07.940 It's those hidden small black holes, stellar mass black holes that these researchers have

54:07.940 --> 54:12.920 been looking for and they found one after examining data from the European Space Agency's

54:12.920 --> 54:19.020 Gaia Space Observatory, hence the name Gaia BH1, black hole one.

54:19.020 --> 54:25.260 And Gaia studies basically the stars of the Milky Way in detail.

54:25.260 --> 54:30.700 These detailed measurements revealed a tiny wobble in a star that could be caused by a

54:30.700 --> 54:32.620 great unseen mass.

54:32.620 --> 54:36.700 So for follow-up observations and calculations, they used what's called the Gemini, or is

54:36.700 --> 54:43.360 it Gemini, the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph, and that allowed for even more precise velocity

54:43.360 --> 54:48.780 measurements and orbital periods, which then allowed for the calculation of the masses

54:48.780 --> 54:49.780 involved.

54:49.780 --> 54:51.080 And that was obviously critical.

54:51.080 --> 54:56.180 This revealed that the inner binary partner had to have something close to 10 times the

54:56.180 --> 54:57.900 mass of the sun.

54:57.900 --> 55:01.700 And I love how they described their conclusion in their paper.

55:01.700 --> 55:07.580 They said, we find no plausible astrophysical scenario that can explain the orbit and does

55:07.580 --> 55:09.640 not involve a black hole.

55:09.640 --> 55:13.660 So in other words, it's a fricking black hole, duh.

55:13.660 --> 55:18.540 This is not only then the closest black hole to the Earth we know of, but also the first

55:18.540 --> 55:24.500 verified sun-like star in such a wide orbit around a stellar mass black hole.

55:24.500 --> 55:29.820 And that's the key to the coming mystery of this system is like, this is a sun-like star

55:29.820 --> 55:33.020 and it's in a very, very wide orbit, which is unusual.

55:33.020 --> 55:37.980 Like I was saying, this is a mysterious system in a lot of ways because it doesn't make sense.

55:37.980 --> 55:42.060 The black hole, think about this black hole, it used to be a star, right?

55:42.060 --> 55:43.860 I mean, duh.

55:43.860 --> 55:50.260 That star probably had about 20 solar masses because that would probably produce a 10 solar

55:50.260 --> 55:51.260 mass black hole.

55:51.260 --> 55:56.180 So it had 20 solar masses, which means that it only lives for a few million years because

55:56.180 --> 55:59.420 it goes through that fuel so fast.

55:59.420 --> 56:05.500 And it would have puffed up into a super giant and consumed the star that's there now, the

56:05.500 --> 56:06.920 sun-like star that's there.

56:06.920 --> 56:13.460 Even before that star became a mature star, it would have just totally consumed it and

56:13.460 --> 56:15.340 wouldn't be there now.

56:15.340 --> 56:19.960 Models that the scientists have run show that the star could have survived, but it means

56:19.960 --> 56:26.180 that it would have ended up in a much, much tighter orbit, nothing like the 100 million

56:26.180 --> 56:30.380 mile or 95 million mile orbit that it's in now.

56:30.380 --> 56:35.660 So it's just like they're very puzzled, which of course is good in science in a lot of ways.

56:35.660 --> 56:40.160 So that means that our models of black hole binary evolution may need tweaking and there

56:40.160 --> 56:44.140 may be far more such systems than we think out there.

56:44.140 --> 56:48.220 Kareem El Badri said, it's interesting that this system is not easily accommodated by

56:48.220 --> 56:50.340 standard binary evolution models.

56:50.340 --> 56:55.060 It poses many questions about how this binary system was formed, as well as how many of

56:55.060 --> 56:57.540 these dormant black holes there are out there.

56:57.540 --> 57:00.700 The observations also leave a mystery to be solved.

57:00.700 --> 57:06.500 Despite a shared history with its exotic neighbor, why is the companion star in this binary system

57:06.500 --> 57:08.100 so normal?

57:08.100 --> 57:14.800 I'm sure in the future when Gaia releases more data, these researchers and other researchers

57:14.800 --> 57:20.380 of course will be poring over it, looking for more stealthy, dormant, stellar mass black

57:20.380 --> 57:27.380 holes and maybe find one even closer to Earth and hopefully the boffins will be less baffled.

57:27.380 --> 57:29.620 Excellent.

57:29.620 --> 57:33.020 But this black hole is not going to gobble us up though, right Bob?

57:33.020 --> 57:34.020 1600?

57:34.020 --> 57:36.460 No, it's just like, yeah, I love that.

57:36.460 --> 57:42.740 The gravity is going to reach 1600 light years and sure, that gravity is theoretically detectable,

57:42.740 --> 57:47.100 but it's, you know, it's so far away, it's not magically going to reach out and suck

57:47.100 --> 57:53.100 anything up, just like, you know, it's gravity folks, it's intense, but it's far.

57:53.100 --> 57:58.700 If our own sun were a black hole, gravitationally wouldn't, but of the same mass as our sun,

57:58.700 --> 57:59.700 right?

57:59.700 --> 58:01.700 But just in a black hole, gravitationally wouldn't make any difference to us.

58:01.700 --> 58:02.700 Yeah.

58:02.700 --> 58:03.700 It would get dark and we would stay in orbit.

58:03.700 --> 58:04.700 It would still be orbiting.

58:04.700 --> 58:07.100 We would still be orbiting it in the same way, the gravity wouldn't affect us anymore.

58:07.100 --> 58:08.100 We just wouldn't be alive because...

58:08.100 --> 58:09.100 It would just be dark.

58:09.100 --> 58:10.100 Yeah.

58:10.100 --> 58:11.100 Yeah.

58:11.100 --> 58:12.100 And cold.

58:12.100 --> 58:13.100 And cold.

58:13.100 --> 58:14.100 Very cold.

AWARE II Study of NDEs (mm:ss)

• [link_URL TITLE]

58:14.100 --> 58:15.100 All right, guys.

58:15.100 --> 58:16.900 I have a quick update on near-death experiences.

58:16.900 --> 58:17.900 Cool.

58:17.900 --> 58:18.900 Yeah.

58:18.900 --> 58:19.900 So I think...

58:19.900 --> 58:20.900 They're not as near as we thought?

58:20.900 --> 58:28.780 We spoke previously about the AWARE study and now the AWARE 2 study preliminary results

58:28.780 --> 58:29.780 are out.

58:29.780 --> 58:32.920 It hasn't been published yet, but they are being presented.

58:32.920 --> 58:39.620 So essentially what the study is doing is looking to see if they could document what

58:39.620 --> 58:44.380 is happening at the moment of near-death experiences.

58:44.380 --> 58:50.060 So they look at people who are undergoing CPR, right?

58:50.060 --> 58:55.420 They identify them in the participating emergency rooms and then they follow them.

58:55.420 --> 59:00.500 And for those that survive, which is a minority, you know, if you're getting CPR, chances are

59:00.500 --> 59:01.500 you're not going to survive.

59:01.500 --> 59:08.980 So for those who do, they see if they report any near-death experiences and they characterize

59:08.980 --> 59:09.980 them.

59:09.980 --> 59:17.340 But they also are doing detailed EEGs, electroencephalograms, during the CPR to see what the brain activity

59:17.340 --> 59:18.340 is.

59:18.340 --> 59:23.520 And remember, this is the same study where they put the cards on the tops of shelves

59:23.520 --> 59:25.900 to see if people were floating above their body.

59:25.900 --> 59:26.900 They could read the cards.

59:26.900 --> 59:28.980 It's really the only way you could see them.

59:28.980 --> 59:33.860 So the goal of this study, as far as I could tell, is, you know, if you're going to say

59:33.860 --> 59:40.780 that near-death experiences are truly anomalous, right, that they are not just explained as

59:40.780 --> 59:44.200 brain activity, you have to do two things.

59:44.200 --> 59:52.060 You have to prove that the experience that is being reported occurred during the near-death

59:52.060 --> 59:53.060 time period, right?

59:53.060 --> 59:55.440 It had to occur near-death.

59:55.440 --> 59:59.180 And you also have to show that there was no brain activity that could account for that

59:59.180 --> 01:00:00.980 experience, right?

01:00:00.980 --> 01:00:04.720 So that's sort of the goal of this study, is to show those two things.

01:00:04.720 --> 01:00:08.820 What do you mean there's no brain activity that could account for the experience, though?

01:00:08.820 --> 01:00:13.540 In other words, there's either no or insignificant brain activity, right?

01:00:13.540 --> 01:00:19.020 If you could show, like, the brain is flatlined at a time when they are absolutely having

01:00:19.020 --> 01:00:20.500 an experience.

01:00:20.500 --> 01:00:21.500 Then that would prove what?

01:00:21.500 --> 01:00:23.100 Well, that's a good question, right?

01:00:23.100 --> 01:00:28.820 It would just prove that it's that near-death experiences are not brain experiences.

01:00:28.820 --> 01:00:29.820 Okay.

01:00:29.820 --> 01:00:30.820 Yeah.

01:00:30.820 --> 01:00:34.540 Because I feel like ultimately that's an unanswerable question, because there could

01:00:34.540 --> 01:00:37.020 always be a brain reason for it.

01:00:37.020 --> 01:00:39.940 Well, but not if there's zero brain activity, right?

01:00:39.940 --> 01:00:40.940 Right.

01:00:40.940 --> 01:00:44.100 But then wouldn't that nullify the experience altogether?

01:00:44.100 --> 01:00:46.440 You couldn't have an experience if you had no brain activity.

01:00:46.440 --> 01:00:52.720 If you're a naturalist like you and I are, Kara, if you don't believe in all that physical

01:00:52.720 --> 01:00:59.140 nonsense about the brain causing consciousness, then—and near-death experiences are almost

01:00:59.140 --> 01:01:04.100 universally cited as evidence for dualism, right, for the fact that consciousness is

01:01:04.100 --> 01:01:05.260 more than just brain activity.

01:01:05.260 --> 01:01:07.500 Well, then how do you explain NDE's, right?

01:01:07.500 --> 01:01:14.740 It's like, well, but again, in order for an NDE to be evidence for an experience separate

01:01:14.740 --> 01:01:18.620 from brain activity, you need those two components.

01:01:18.620 --> 01:01:22.700 The reason why those are hard to prove is, one, if somebody wakes up a day or two days

01:01:22.700 --> 01:01:26.900 or a week later and they go, hey, I had this weird experience, how do you know what happened

01:01:26.900 --> 01:01:31.180 when they were getting their CPR, when they were dead, right?

01:01:31.180 --> 01:01:36.300 It could have happened any time during the recovery period.

01:01:36.300 --> 01:01:44.740 So you need to show that that experience formed when they were near death, and if they could

01:01:44.740 --> 01:01:50.260 do that, then we could say, well, you're getting CPR, that's producing decent blood flow.

01:01:50.260 --> 01:01:55.860 It's usually 20, 25 percent of what normal blood flow would be, and maybe that's enough

01:01:55.860 --> 01:02:00.100 to generate enough brain activity that they're experiencing something, you know, like dreaming

01:02:00.100 --> 01:02:05.100 or whatever, some altered state of consciousness, but enough to form some memories that they

01:02:05.100 --> 01:02:11.020 then interpret later as whatever culturally appropriate near-death experience they want

01:02:11.020 --> 01:02:13.220 to believe, right?

01:02:13.220 --> 01:02:15.620 So that's why the study was organized the way it was.

01:02:15.620 --> 01:02:19.900 They have an EEG going during CPR, and they want to see if people can report that they

01:02:19.900 --> 01:02:25.420 were floating above their body and seeing the card, or just that they accurately described

01:02:25.420 --> 01:02:26.820 what was happening in the room.

01:02:26.820 --> 01:02:31.660 That's a way more problematic criterion, because, you know, what do you consider accurate?

01:02:31.660 --> 01:02:33.660 Oh, there were people working on me.

01:02:33.660 --> 01:02:34.660 Yeah, of course there were.

01:02:34.660 --> 01:02:39.500 It's a kind of emergency room, and so just like telling just a typical kind of story.

01:02:39.500 --> 01:02:47.740 Now, with the WARE-1, the first study, nobody that got enrolled into the study and survived

01:02:47.740 --> 01:02:51.260 that was in an ER that had one of the cards in place.

01:02:51.260 --> 01:02:56.740 So they didn't, they were not able to gather any data on that, and out of the 140 cases

01:02:56.740 --> 01:03:03.780 that they documented, one case they said the person reported details about what was happening

01:03:03.780 --> 01:03:05.780 in the room when they were getting CPR.

01:03:05.780 --> 01:03:08.020 So I mean, to me, that's background noise, right?

01:03:08.020 --> 01:03:10.060 One out of 140, that's coincidence.

01:03:10.060 --> 01:03:15.540 That's just superficial similarity of what was reported and what was happening.

01:03:15.540 --> 01:03:16.540 It's ambiguous, right?

01:03:16.540 --> 01:03:21.060 It doesn't prove that the person's memories were happening when they were in the emergency

01:03:21.060 --> 01:03:22.900 room getting their CPR.

01:03:22.900 --> 01:03:28.420 So AWARE-2, so from their preliminary reporting, and this is like from Parnia, the guy who's

01:03:28.420 --> 01:03:34.260 running it and who would absolutely make the best case for his own data possible, no mention

01:03:34.260 --> 01:03:35.940 of anybody seeing the cards, right?

01:03:35.940 --> 01:03:38.660 So I think we can assume that that did not happen.

01:03:38.660 --> 01:03:41.300 And guess what the EEG showed?

01:03:41.300 --> 01:03:43.220 It showed brain activity during CPR.

01:03:43.220 --> 01:03:44.580 Well, there you go.

01:03:44.580 --> 01:03:48.580 So they failed both of the things that they were trying to find.

01:03:48.580 --> 01:03:52.660 They did not prove the experiences formed while they were in the emergency room getting

01:03:52.660 --> 01:03:56.760 CPR, and they did not prove no brain activity.

01:03:56.760 --> 01:04:02.300 So now they're doing the shuffle, they're dancing feverishly trying to parlay this into

01:04:02.300 --> 01:04:04.860 we identified something unique happening.

01:04:04.860 --> 01:04:06.420 No, you didn't.

01:04:06.420 --> 01:04:08.540 You showed nothing.

01:04:08.540 --> 01:04:13.100 You failed on the two primary outcomes you were looking for, and those are the only ones

01:04:13.100 --> 01:04:16.620 that mean anything, right?

01:04:16.620 --> 01:04:22.920 So again, we are left with no compelling evidence that NDEs or anything other than shit people

01:04:22.920 --> 01:04:26.700 remember when they wake up from having CPR, right?

01:04:26.700 --> 01:04:30.740 They still didn't prove that those memories weren't forming way later, and they didn't

01:04:30.740 --> 01:04:32.420 prove that there was no brain activity.

01:04:32.420 --> 01:04:38.020 There were spikes of brain activity during CPR.

01:04:38.020 --> 01:04:42.620 I'm not saying that that activity is what is causing the experience, because again,

01:04:42.620 --> 01:04:46.620 they haven't established that the experience is forming then.

01:04:46.620 --> 01:04:49.460 So we don't need to hypothesize that.

01:04:49.460 --> 01:04:55.180 All we could say is that for their hypothesis, they failed on both counts, and that's it.

01:04:55.180 --> 01:04:59.660 And this is the most rigorous study of NDEs to date, you know, even more rigorous than

01:04:59.660 --> 01:05:00.660 AWARE-1.

01:05:00.660 --> 01:05:01.660 So fine.

01:05:01.660 --> 01:05:08.260 It's always, this happens a lot with pseudoscience or things on the fringe where the actual data,

01:05:08.260 --> 01:05:12.380 the actual outcomes that they were looking for are negative, but they find some way to

01:05:12.380 --> 01:05:17.300 try to pretend like the study was positive because they're so invested in interpreting

01:05:17.300 --> 01:05:18.300 it that way.

01:05:18.300 --> 01:05:21.660 And instead of just saying, it was negative, the study was negative, the outcome measures

01:05:21.660 --> 01:05:23.660 we were looking for weren't there.

01:05:23.660 --> 01:05:29.900 Aren't there any rigorous, legitimate studies that are basically looking at what could account

01:05:29.900 --> 01:05:33.540 for individual experiences?

01:05:33.540 --> 01:05:34.540 So like, what did you have?

01:05:34.540 --> 01:05:35.540 What do you have in mind?

01:05:35.540 --> 01:05:36.860 There's lots of studies of like...

01:05:36.860 --> 01:05:37.860 Like hypoxia.

01:05:37.860 --> 01:05:38.860 Yeah.

01:05:38.860 --> 01:05:40.300 What happens during hypoxia?

01:05:40.300 --> 01:05:43.460 What happens during, you know, during drug exposure?

01:05:43.460 --> 01:05:44.460 Yeah.

01:05:44.460 --> 01:05:47.700 Qualitative experiences that people, like people who were interviewed after a hypoxic

01:05:47.700 --> 01:05:48.700 event, what did they experience?

01:05:48.700 --> 01:05:49.700 Yeah.

01:05:49.700 --> 01:05:53.140 And in fact, we have a lot of those episodes, you know, where they mostly come from?

01:05:53.140 --> 01:05:54.140 Pilots.

01:05:54.140 --> 01:05:55.140 Pilots.

01:05:55.140 --> 01:05:56.140 Fighter pilots.

01:05:56.140 --> 01:06:00.820 Fighter pilots will frequently accelerate, you know, pull Gs until they pass out.

01:06:00.820 --> 01:06:02.420 And guess what they report?

01:06:02.420 --> 01:06:08.860 They report pretty compelling NDE experiences, you know, all the elements are there.

01:06:08.860 --> 01:06:12.940 All the body sensation, all the elements are there.

01:06:12.940 --> 01:06:14.540 The tunnel vision.

01:06:14.540 --> 01:06:18.820 The feelings of kind of like dissociation, depersonalization.

01:06:18.820 --> 01:06:23.520 And those, they're there in other contexts as well, certain drugs that do that.

01:06:23.520 --> 01:06:28.560 And so the reason why you can have similar experiences in different condition is because

01:06:28.560 --> 01:06:37.140 the, what's provoking the condition, what's provoking the altered awareness is not what's

01:06:37.140 --> 01:06:39.580 producing the details of the experience.

01:06:39.580 --> 01:06:45.900 What's producing the details of the experience are the brain circuits that are shutting down.

01:06:45.900 --> 01:06:50.540 Like this is what you're, this is what it's like when you have some awareness, but these

01:06:50.540 --> 01:06:52.140 circuits aren't working.

01:06:52.140 --> 01:06:56.240 The circuit that makes you feel as if you're inside your body is not functioning.

01:06:56.240 --> 01:07:01.620 So you feel like you're floating outside your body and your brain always makes experiences

01:07:01.620 --> 01:07:04.500 seem real and seamless because that's how our brain works.

01:07:04.500 --> 01:07:11.300 If you have a memory of it, that memory will create the illusion of a real seamless experience.

01:07:11.300 --> 01:07:13.020 It just blows my mind that people don't see this.

01:07:13.020 --> 01:07:19.500 Like you can look at reports of what people experience when they're intubated in ICU and

01:07:19.500 --> 01:07:21.740 you have like really similar things.

01:07:21.740 --> 01:07:26.060 What people report when they first wake up from anesthesia and you have themes over and

01:07:26.060 --> 01:07:27.060 over.

01:07:27.060 --> 01:07:29.580 These are all variations on the same theme.

01:07:29.580 --> 01:07:30.580 Yeah, totally.

01:07:30.580 --> 01:07:35.480 Like, I mean, yeah, to you and me, Kara, it's blatantly obvious that these are just typical

01:07:35.480 --> 01:07:40.900 brain experiences from, you know, a brain that went through trauma was hypoxic and,

01:07:40.900 --> 01:07:45.900 or whatever was waking up slowly from an extreme event like that.

01:07:45.900 --> 01:07:46.900 Sure.

01:07:46.900 --> 01:07:49.220 You're going to have these weird experiences.

01:07:49.220 --> 01:07:52.500 One of the things they try to make hay out of is that some people report really vivid

01:07:52.500 --> 01:07:56.940 experiences like, well, how could their, their experience be more vivid when the brain's

01:07:56.940 --> 01:07:58.480 functioning less?

01:07:58.480 --> 01:08:01.900 It's because the majority of your brain is inhibitory, right?

01:08:01.900 --> 01:08:02.900 Yeah.

01:08:02.900 --> 01:08:04.900 So you're basically like almost seizing.

01:08:04.900 --> 01:08:05.900 Yeah.

01:08:05.900 --> 01:08:10.740 You're just not that it's not like you're seeing limits, limits the information.

01:08:10.740 --> 01:08:16.100 It's like, it's like when you're on LSD or something, you know, as people report really

01:08:16.100 --> 01:08:18.100 psychedelic vivid experiences.

01:08:18.100 --> 01:08:23.020 It opens everything up because all of that bloatware, all of that heavy processing that

01:08:23.020 --> 01:08:28.820 your brain does to see, is this real, you know, to have executive function, to make,

01:08:28.820 --> 01:08:32.720 to compare things with your memories and reality, none of that's working.

01:08:32.720 --> 01:08:36.860 This is like all lizard brain experiences, the straight jackets off.

01:08:36.860 --> 01:08:37.860 Yeah.

01:08:37.860 --> 01:08:41.620 So it's like, of course it's going to be vivid because it, and it may seem really intense

01:08:41.620 --> 01:08:44.100 because all of the dampeners are off.

01:08:44.100 --> 01:08:48.180 They're all down because that's what a lot of the processing that our brain does.

01:08:48.180 --> 01:08:49.740 It slows down the brain.

01:08:49.740 --> 01:08:54.180 It slows down our thought processes, but it adds all of the really important functions

01:08:54.180 --> 01:08:56.100 like executive function.

01:08:56.100 --> 01:09:00.160 But if you take that, strip that all away, you get these vivid psychedelic experiences

01:09:00.160 --> 01:09:02.460 that seem more real than real or whatever.

01:09:02.460 --> 01:09:06.860 But then you're like, well, and that's like what, I mean, it's not what, but delusions,

01:09:06.860 --> 01:09:10.460 hallucinations, like all of these positive symptoms.

01:09:10.460 --> 01:09:14.380 That's what that is, and it's hard to differentiate them from reality by definition.

01:09:14.380 --> 01:09:18.060 And then your waking brain tries to make sense of it all, right?

01:09:18.060 --> 01:09:23.140 And then it weaves it into a memory of something that's to me, the point that's so, so fundamentally

01:09:23.140 --> 01:09:27.760 important and important is that all these people who have these quote near death experiences,

01:09:27.760 --> 01:09:31.020 there's a particular pattern of what's happening in the brain.

01:09:31.020 --> 01:09:34.280 There is a particular experiential kind of pattern.

01:09:34.280 --> 01:09:36.000 And then what do we do because we're human beings?

01:09:36.000 --> 01:09:37.500 We make meaning of it.

01:09:37.500 --> 01:09:41.060 Oh yes, we don't like the chaos story.

01:09:41.060 --> 01:09:47.560 And so there's the, if you look at the details of NDEs, there are core details that are clearly

01:09:47.560 --> 01:09:52.460 related to brain phenomenon, like the tunnel vision and the out of body of experience.

01:09:52.460 --> 01:09:57.120 And then there's all the other details that are culturally specific.

01:09:57.120 --> 01:10:01.940 They overlay on the core experience, their religious beliefs.

01:10:01.940 --> 01:10:05.460 It is so blatantly obvious when you look at the actual data.

01:10:05.460 --> 01:10:11.820 So yeah, it's Steve, it's like, um, it's like waking, you know, you wake up and you hallucinate.

01:10:11.820 --> 01:10:12.820 What are you hallucinating?

01:10:12.820 --> 01:10:16.300 Well, that depends on, on, on your culture and your culture and what time you're in.

01:10:16.300 --> 01:10:17.300 Yeah.

01:10:17.300 --> 01:10:18.300 Yeah.

01:10:18.300 --> 01:10:21.940 Is there an alien sitting on your chest or a demon or a demon or a sea hag?

01:10:21.940 --> 01:10:22.940 Yeah.

01:10:22.940 --> 01:10:25.620 But, but the pressure is a neurological phenomenon.

01:10:25.620 --> 01:10:28.220 Your interpretation of it is a cultural phenomenon.

01:10:28.220 --> 01:10:30.180 It's the same thing with the NDEs.

01:10:30.180 --> 01:10:32.400 The out of body experience is a brain phenomenon.

01:10:32.400 --> 01:10:36.020 Your interpretation of that is a cultural phenomenon.

01:10:36.020 --> 01:10:40.460 And so it's, we're right smack dab in the middle of this is a traumatized brain, but

01:10:40.460 --> 01:10:44.620 Parnia is trying to say, if this isn't a trick of the brain, your data shows it's a trick

01:10:44.620 --> 01:10:45.620 of the brain.

01:10:45.620 --> 01:10:46.620 It's just ridiculous.

01:10:46.620 --> 01:10:47.620 Wow.

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Interview with ___ ()

• _Interviewee_Topic_Event_
• [link_URL _homepage_or_article_title_]

Skeptical Puzzle ()

• Answer to last week's Puzzle: _brief_description_perhaps_with_link_

Who's That Noisy? ()

Answer to previous Noisy:

_brief_description_of_answer_ _perhaps_with_a_link_

New Noisy ()

[_short_vague_description_of_Noisy]

short_text_from_transcript

Name That Logical Fallacy ()

• _Fallacy_Topic_Event_
• [link_URL TITLE]

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –

Questions/Emails/Corrections/Follow-ups ()

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –

Question_Email_Correction #2: _brief_description_ ()

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Science or Fiction (h:mm:ss)

Item #1: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #2: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #3: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #4: (_item_text_from_show_notes_)

Answer	Item
Fiction
Science

Host	Result
Steve

Rogue	Guess

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Skeptical Quote of the Week ()

TEXT
– AUTHOR (YYYY-YYYY), _short_description_

Signoff/Announcements ()

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

[top]                        

Today I Learned

• Fact/Description, possibly with an article reference
• Fact/Description
• Fact/Description

References

Vocabulary