SGU Episode 895

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SGU Episode 895
September 3rd 2022
Solar panels on roof
SGU 894                      SGU 896
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Guest
SY: Dr. Seema Yasmin, British writer & science communicator
Quote of the Week
If you have an effect that nobody can replicate, then your phenomenon fades away. So if you want to have a legacy, then you jolly well better have an effect that replicates.
Susan Fiske, American social psychologist
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction, Steve's COVID, Cara in FL

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

[00:09.000 --> 00:14.440] Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Wednesday, August

[00:14.440 --> 00:19.280] 31st, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella.

[00:19.280 --> 00:20.280] Hey, everybody.

[00:20.280 --> 00:21.280] Kara Santamaria.

[00:21.280 --> 00:22.280] Howdy.

[00:22.280 --> 00:23.280] Jay Novella.

[00:23.280 --> 00:24.280] Hey, guys.

[00:24.280 --> 00:25.280] And Evan Bernstein.

[00:25.280 --> 00:26.280] Good evening, friends.

[00:26.280 --> 00:29.280] Well, guys, it finally happened.

[00:29.280 --> 00:30.280] Oh, boy.

[00:30.280 --> 00:31.280] What happened?

[00:31.280 --> 00:32.280] It's no longer elite.

[00:32.280 --> 00:33.280] What happened?

[00:33.280 --> 00:34.280] You went on your first date.

[00:34.280 --> 00:35.280] I got COVID.

[00:35.280 --> 00:36.280] Oh.

[00:36.280 --> 00:37.280] Am I the last one standing?

[00:37.280 --> 00:38.280] Why did you do that?

[00:38.280 --> 00:39.280] No.

[00:39.280 --> 00:40.280] Why?

[00:40.280 --> 00:41.280] The Italy trip got me.

[00:41.280 --> 00:42.280] Too many crowds.

[00:42.280 --> 00:43.280] Italy.

[00:43.280 --> 00:48.280] Despite masking everywhere, I was masked the whole time.

[00:48.280 --> 00:51.280] There's only so much you can social distance.

[00:51.280 --> 00:52.280] We did the best we could.

[00:52.280 --> 00:56.280] It was probably the plane ride home, but based on the timing.

[00:56.280 --> 01:00.280] I'm at the tail end now because I was getting it just last week.

[01:00.280 --> 01:03.280] Were you feeling it in Italy or when you got home?

[01:03.280 --> 01:04.280] No.

[01:04.280 --> 01:05.280] No.

[01:05.280 --> 01:08.280] I wasn't feeling it until like a day after I got home.

[01:08.280 --> 01:10.280] Well, at least it didn't ruin your holiday.

[01:10.280 --> 01:11.280] Yeah, that's true.

[01:11.280 --> 01:12.280] That's a good thing.

[01:12.280 --> 01:15.280] It started with just a scratchy throat.

[01:15.280 --> 01:17.280] Even to the point, I'm like, is that something real?

[01:17.280 --> 01:19.280] Is the air just drying here?

[01:19.280 --> 01:20.280] Is something going on?

[01:20.280 --> 01:22.280] And then it hit me like a Mack truck.

[01:22.280 --> 01:26.280] Within two hours, clearly I had viremia.

[01:26.280 --> 01:29.280] So the virus is just replicating like mad in my bloodstream.

[01:29.280 --> 01:33.280] So I had the fever, chills, muscle aches, fatigue.

[01:33.280 --> 01:34.280] Were they multiplying?

[01:34.280 --> 01:36.280] They were multiplying, yeah.

[01:36.280 --> 01:39.280] Nice day.

[01:39.280 --> 01:42.280] And then it just turned into a really bad cold.

[01:42.280 --> 01:44.280] I'm still at the tail end.

[01:44.280 --> 01:45.280] Did you die?

[01:45.280 --> 01:46.280] Throughout the show.

[01:46.280 --> 01:47.280] No, I managed not to die, which is good.

[01:47.280 --> 01:48.280] That's good.

[01:48.280 --> 01:50.280] Well, look, let's say for what it is.

[01:50.280 --> 01:54.280] The vaccine, I know that most people that listen to this show

[01:54.280 --> 01:55.280] already know this.

[01:55.280 --> 01:58.280] But we need to take a moment to recognize

[01:58.280 --> 02:00.280] the miracle of freaking technology,

[02:00.280 --> 02:05.280] which is these vaccines that have saved millions of lives.

[02:05.280 --> 02:08.280] Steve, as much as Omicron isn't as deadly

[02:08.280 --> 02:13.280] as the first couple of versions, you could have died.

[02:13.280 --> 02:16.280] The vaccine turned it into a bad cold, basically.

[02:16.280 --> 02:17.280] Right.

[02:17.280 --> 02:18.280] But that's what I'm getting at.

[02:18.280 --> 02:20.280] You got a sickness that potentially

[02:20.280 --> 02:22.280] could have killed you if it weren't for the vaccine

[02:22.280 --> 02:24.280] that you've been taking over the last two years.

[02:24.280 --> 02:27.280] Yeah, if I didn't know, if this was not COVID,

[02:27.280 --> 02:29.280] I would have just thought it was a bad cold.

[02:29.280 --> 02:31.280] I wouldn't have thought of any different about it.

[02:31.280 --> 02:32.280] You know what I mean?

[02:32.280 --> 02:33.280] Not even flu level.

[02:33.280 --> 02:34.280] I've had the flu.

[02:34.280 --> 02:35.280] Flu is worse than this.

[02:35.280 --> 02:36.280] At least my version of it.

[02:36.280 --> 02:37.280] I know every one is different.

[02:37.280 --> 02:39.280] And you can get a much more severe.

[02:39.280 --> 02:42.280] What I had was somewhere between a cold and a flu.

[02:42.280 --> 02:43.280] Sounds about right.

[02:43.280 --> 02:45.280] Still sucks, but yeah.

[02:45.280 --> 02:47.280] And there's apparently a very long tail.

[02:47.280 --> 02:49.280] It doesn't just go away.

[02:49.280 --> 02:51.280] It takes people who've had this version.

[02:51.280 --> 02:53.280] Yeah, mine was about three weeks.

[02:53.280 --> 02:54.280] Yeah, it's about three weeks.

[02:54.280 --> 02:55.280] Mine was about three.

[02:55.280 --> 02:57.280] And don't forget, guys, that there is also

[02:57.280 --> 03:00.280] that very distinct possibility that after you feel good

[03:00.280 --> 03:03.280] for a couple of weeks, you'll get hit with incredible fatigue.

[03:03.280 --> 03:05.280] Yeah, I heard that too.

[03:05.280 --> 03:06.280] Oh, yeah.

[03:06.280 --> 03:08.280] Yeah, that got me and my wife nobody's business.

[03:08.280 --> 03:12.280] One day, I asked my wife, I'm like, are you exhausted?

[03:12.280 --> 03:14.280] Do you feel like somebody unplugged your energy?

[03:14.280 --> 03:15.280] And she's like, yeah.

[03:15.280 --> 03:17.280] Like, it hit us literally on the same day.

[03:17.280 --> 03:18.280] It was crazy.

[03:18.280 --> 03:20.280] Steve, what are the latest recommendations

[03:20.280 --> 03:22.280] about quarantining now when you have it?

[03:22.280 --> 03:23.280] Is it five days?

[03:23.280 --> 03:26.280] Yeah, five days from the time when you test positive,

[03:26.280 --> 03:29.280] assuming you're not febrile, right?

[03:29.280 --> 03:33.280] Although my workplace required seven days.

[03:33.280 --> 03:35.280] I couldn't go into work for seven days.

[03:35.280 --> 03:36.280] I still don't understand that.

[03:36.280 --> 03:37.280] I don't understand.

[03:37.280 --> 03:41.280] Like, if you're testing positive, you have a viral load.

[03:41.280 --> 03:42.280] Yeah.

[03:42.280 --> 03:43.280] You are infectious.

[03:43.280 --> 03:46.280] You should not go anywhere until your viral load

[03:46.280 --> 03:48.280] drops enough that you're testing negative.

[03:48.280 --> 03:51.280] It just makes no sense that it's five days, seven days,

[03:51.280 --> 03:53.280] 10 days, whatever the CDC keeps throwing around.

[03:53.280 --> 03:57.280] If you're still positive, you should not be around people.

[03:57.280 --> 04:00.280] Yeah, but I tell you, it's five days isolation

[04:00.280 --> 04:03.280] and then 10 days of masking and social distancing.

[04:03.280 --> 04:05.280] And those recommendations are based on the fact

[04:05.280 --> 04:08.280] that most people have either had it or are vaccinated by now,

[04:08.280 --> 04:09.280] right?

[04:09.280 --> 04:10.280] Right.

[04:10.280 --> 04:12.280] It's the idea that it's not as bad of an illness anymore

[04:12.280 --> 04:15.280] because it's not a naive population.

[04:15.280 --> 04:18.280] It's an increasingly resistant population.

[04:18.280 --> 04:22.280] And so how much are we going to disrupt society for what,

[04:22.280 --> 04:25.280] for most people, will be a bad cold, right?

[04:25.280 --> 04:26.280] So that's part of the calculation.

[04:26.280 --> 04:30.280] It's not just like 100% preventing transmission.

[04:30.280 --> 04:31.280] It's the trade-off.

[04:31.280 --> 04:35.280] What are we going to give up for reducing the transmission?

[04:35.280 --> 04:38.280] Remember, people forget the whole flattening the curve

[04:38.280 --> 04:39.280] thing.

[04:39.280 --> 04:40.280] Yeah.

[04:40.280 --> 04:43.280] And the point of the really severe restrictions early on

[04:43.280 --> 04:46.280] was to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed.

[04:46.280 --> 04:50.280] And that's not really an issue anymore because the Paxilavid

[04:50.280 --> 04:52.280] and everything, it's like the hospitalization issue

[04:52.280 --> 04:53.280] is not as severe.

[04:53.280 --> 04:56.280] It's just funny to me that the idea now is sort of like,

[04:56.280 --> 04:58.280] OK, you're better but not completely better.

[04:58.280 --> 05:00.280] You can go back to work.

[05:00.280 --> 05:02.280] And I know that this has always been the way, right?

[05:02.280 --> 05:05.280] People go to work with colds all the time, but they shouldn't.

[05:05.280 --> 05:06.280] They shouldn't.

[05:06.280 --> 05:08.280] I'm always like, why are you here?

[05:08.280 --> 05:09.280] Go home.

[05:09.280 --> 05:10.280] That's never a good idea.

[05:10.280 --> 05:12.280] Yeah, it's worse than that because a lot, especially

[05:12.280 --> 05:15.280] in the United States, a lot of employers

[05:15.280 --> 05:17.280] like don't want you to take sick days.

[05:17.280 --> 05:18.280] I know.

[05:18.280 --> 05:20.280] And it's messed up because, of course, it's clear

[05:20.280 --> 05:23.280] that this is speaking from a position of privilege.

[05:23.280 --> 05:26.280] But when we look at it from a structural perspective,

[05:26.280 --> 05:28.280] sure, yes, from an individual perspective,

[05:28.280 --> 05:30.280] it's absolutely a position of privilege

[05:30.280 --> 05:32.280] to say I don't want to go to work because I'm sick

[05:32.280 --> 05:34.280] or I don't want you to go to work while you're sick

[05:34.280 --> 05:35.280] because I don't want to get sick.

[05:35.280 --> 05:37.280] But from a structural perspective,

[05:37.280 --> 05:40.280] it saves everybody money if people don't go to work

[05:40.280 --> 05:41.280] when they're sick.

[05:41.280 --> 05:43.280] Including the employer because they're not going to now

[05:43.280 --> 05:45.280] have a rash of sickness among their employees.

[05:45.280 --> 05:46.280] Right.

[05:46.280 --> 05:47.280] But here's the other thing.

[05:47.280 --> 05:52.280] I think people are more likely to mask if they have a cold.

[05:52.280 --> 05:54.280] They're more likely to stay at home.

[05:54.280 --> 05:56.280] And also, for me, I did telehealth all week.

[05:56.280 --> 05:58.280] It's not like I couldn't do anything.

[05:58.280 --> 06:00.280] I think people will just work from home if they're sick.

[06:00.280 --> 06:03.280] Yeah, that's how I was after my surgery.

[06:03.280 --> 06:05.280] If you have that kind of job, yeah.

[06:05.280 --> 06:07.280] You didn't even have those advantages, say, 20 years ago.

[06:07.280 --> 06:11.280] So up until only recent times has this been a possibility

[06:11.280 --> 06:14.280] for a good amount of the working population

[06:14.280 --> 06:16.280] to have opportunities to work from home effectively.

[06:16.280 --> 06:17.280] Yeah.

[06:17.280 --> 06:18.280] Frogs.

[06:18.280 --> 06:19.280] True.

[06:19.280 --> 06:20.280] Frogs.

[06:20.280 --> 06:21.280] I just haven't said anything.

[06:21.280 --> 06:23.280] I don't want to.

[06:23.280 --> 06:24.280] No, that's a good word.

[06:24.280 --> 06:25.280] Yeah.

[06:25.280 --> 06:26.280] Bob has no opinion other than frogs.

[06:26.280 --> 06:27.280] Interesting choice.

[06:27.280 --> 06:28.280] I like toadles.

[06:28.280 --> 06:30.280] I like turtles.

[06:30.280 --> 06:32.280] Hey, I have some news.

[06:32.280 --> 06:33.280] Oh, yeah?

[06:33.280 --> 06:34.280] What?

[06:34.280 --> 06:37.280] You're on the show live from Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

[06:37.280 --> 06:38.280] Florida?

[06:38.280 --> 06:40.280] Yeah, you're on the East Coast with us now.

[06:40.280 --> 06:41.280] Whoa.

[06:41.280 --> 06:42.280] Low ride in our time zone.

[06:42.280 --> 06:43.280] Low fame in our time zone.

[06:43.280 --> 06:44.280] Late at night.

[06:44.280 --> 06:45.280] Wow.

[06:45.280 --> 06:46.280] Yeah.

[06:46.280 --> 06:47.280] And I'll tell you, it is hot.

[06:47.280 --> 06:48.280] It is hot outside.

[06:48.280 --> 06:49.280] It is humid.

[06:49.280 --> 06:50.280] But I love it.

[06:50.280 --> 06:52.280] It has been really beautiful.

[06:52.280 --> 06:54.280] So far, the bugs have not eaten me alive.

[06:54.280 --> 06:56.280] I think that's just been luck.

[06:56.280 --> 06:58.280] I'm not going to count those chickens.

[06:58.280 --> 07:00.280] But it's lovely here.

[07:00.280 --> 07:03.280] And the people, I will say, I had forgotten how nice the people

[07:03.280 --> 07:04.280] are in the South.

[07:04.280 --> 07:06.280] They're just so friendly.

[07:06.280 --> 07:10.280] My favorite part so far, I mean, I've only been here a few days,

[07:10.280 --> 07:12.280] is all of the herps.

[07:12.280 --> 07:16.280] There are so many lizards in just different reptiles in Florida.

[07:16.280 --> 07:20.280] You're taking a walk down the street, and there's iguanas everywhere.

[07:20.280 --> 07:22.280] It's so cool.

[07:22.280 --> 07:23.280] Like, huge iguanas.

[07:23.280 --> 07:24.280] I felt like I was in the Galapagos.

[07:24.280 --> 07:25.280] Huge.

[07:25.280 --> 07:26.280] That's, yeah.

[07:26.280 --> 07:27.280] Like, eight, 10 feet.

[07:27.280 --> 07:28.280] Oh, wait.

[07:28.280 --> 07:29.280] That's an alligator.

[07:29.280 --> 07:30.280] Big, big iguanas.

[07:30.280 --> 07:31.280] They got those, too.

[07:31.280 --> 07:32.280] And I haven't seen any alligators yet.

[07:32.280 --> 07:35.280] But by every body of water I've walked by, and there are little bodies

[07:35.280 --> 07:38.280] of water everywhere, like little ponds everywhere.

[07:38.280 --> 07:40.280] There are iguanas kind of surrounding them.

[07:40.280 --> 07:44.280] And there are anoles and lots of small lizards, too, running around

[07:44.280 --> 07:46.280] and, like, geckos and things.

[07:46.280 --> 07:50.280] But the only other place I've seen iguanas in the world is the Galapagos.

[07:50.280 --> 07:51.280] I'm not sure where else they are.

[07:51.280 --> 07:54.280] I also know that Florida has flamingos, and the only other place in the

[07:54.280 --> 07:57.280] world that has flamingos are, I mean, it's multiple countries,

[07:57.280 --> 07:59.280] but several African countries.

[07:59.280 --> 08:05.280] But, yeah, just the ecology here is unique and really exciting,

[08:05.280 --> 08:09.280] and it's kind of a reason that a lot of people really do enjoy Florida.

[08:09.280 --> 08:13.280] There are things about Florida I don't like, but I'm trying to silver line.

[08:13.280 --> 08:15.280] Well, that leads into my question.

[08:15.280 --> 08:17.280] Like, have you seen any sightings?

[08:17.280 --> 08:18.280] Have you had any sightings of...

[08:18.280 --> 08:19.280] Of Florida Man?

[08:19.280 --> 08:20.280] Florida Man?

[08:20.280 --> 08:21.280] Oh, yeah.

[08:21.280 --> 08:24.280] I've seen Florida Man, like, 50 times already.

[08:24.280 --> 08:25.280] Whoa.

[08:25.280 --> 08:26.280] They're all over the place.

[08:26.280 --> 08:28.280] Florida Man is everywhere you look.

[08:28.280 --> 08:31.280] I haven't yet, but there's also so much great stuff here,

[08:31.280 --> 08:33.280] and everybody's just been really friendly and really neighborly,

[08:33.280 --> 08:37.280] and I start my first day of my internship tomorrow.

[08:37.280 --> 08:38.280] Oh, boy.

[08:38.280 --> 08:39.280] So we'll see how that goes.

[08:39.280 --> 08:40.280] Wow, good luck.

Announcements (8:40)

• 6-hour live stream

[08:40.280 --> 08:45.280] Hey, this is a good time to let our audience know that we have an

[08:45.280 --> 08:47.280] upcoming live stream.

[08:47.280 --> 08:55.280] This is going to be a six-hour SGU live show on September 24th,

[08:55.280 --> 09:01.280] so just three weeks after this show comes out, 12 p.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern time.

[09:01.280 --> 09:02.280] 12 noon.

[09:02.280 --> 09:03.280] 12 noon.

[09:03.280 --> 09:04.280] It's still p.m., right?

[09:04.280 --> 09:05.280] Yes, it is.

[09:05.280 --> 09:06.280] It is p.m.

[09:06.280 --> 09:07.280] No, it's not.

[09:07.280 --> 09:08.280] Yes, it is.

[09:08.280 --> 09:09.280] 12 noon is...

[09:09.280 --> 09:10.280] 12 noon is...

[09:10.280 --> 09:11.280] There is no 12 p.m.

[09:11.280 --> 09:13.280] It makes no logical sense.

[09:13.280 --> 09:14.280] Move on.

[09:14.280 --> 09:15.280] Oh, no, we're doing this again.

[09:15.280 --> 09:16.280] All right, move on.

[09:16.280 --> 09:21.280] Hey, Bob, what time zone is it at the North Pole?

[09:21.280 --> 09:23.280] Jay, don't listen to her.

[09:23.280 --> 09:27.280] If it's 12 p.m. in the North Pole, go ahead.

[09:27.280 --> 09:30.280] 12 noon to 6 p.m. Eastern time.

[09:30.280 --> 09:31.280] Thank you.

[09:31.280 --> 09:33.280] We will be doing a six-hour SGU live stream.

[09:33.280 --> 09:35.280] It's going to be a lot of fun.

[09:35.280 --> 09:41.280] Put that on your calendar, and we'll be letting everybody know how to sign into that.

[09:41.280 --> 09:43.280] It's free and open to the public.

[09:43.280 --> 09:48.280] Well, we're going to be doing a couple of SGU episodes, and we're going to be

[09:48.280 --> 09:51.280] doing a deep dive on the book, the new book coming out.

[09:51.280 --> 09:52.280] Yeah.

[09:52.280 --> 09:58.280] Among other things, and guests, and possibly food being prepared live in Steve's kitchen.

[09:58.280 --> 09:59.280] Possibly.

[09:59.280 --> 10:00.280] I hope so.

[10:00.280 --> 10:01.280] At some point, that will probably happen.

[10:01.280 --> 10:02.280] I'm going to be hungry.

[10:02.280 --> 10:03.280] Yeah.

[10:03.280 --> 10:04.280] Those are always a lot of fun.

[10:04.280 --> 10:05.280] And six hours now is like nothing.

[10:05.280 --> 10:06.280] You know, we could do six hours.

[10:06.280 --> 10:07.280] We're just getting started.

[10:07.280 --> 10:08.280] Six hours.

[10:08.280 --> 10:09.280] Yep.

[10:09.280 --> 10:10.280] Just getting warmed up.

[10:10.280 --> 10:14.280] Just getting warmed up.

[10:14.280 --> 10:19.280] And just one other sort of chatty thing before we get to the news items is we were very anxiously

[10:19.280 --> 10:24.280] following the countdown to the Artemis 1 launch on Monday.

[10:24.280 --> 10:25.280] Oh, boy.

[10:25.280 --> 10:26.280] But it got scrubbed.

[10:26.280 --> 10:27.280] That scrubbed.

[10:27.280 --> 10:31.280] They had a pressure issue in one of the tanks.

[10:31.280 --> 10:32.280] Was it pressure or temperature?

[10:32.280 --> 10:33.280] One of those things.

[10:33.280 --> 10:37.280] And they couldn't fix it in the two-hour launch window that they had.

[10:37.280 --> 10:41.280] So as soon as they realized we're not going to fix this in time, they had to scrub it.

[10:41.280 --> 10:43.280] I read that it could have been a faulty sensor.

[10:43.280 --> 10:45.280] There might not have been an actual problem.

[10:45.280 --> 10:46.280] Right.

[10:46.280 --> 10:47.280] But whatever.

[10:47.280 --> 10:48.280] It doesn't matter.

[10:48.280 --> 10:49.280] Absolutely.

[10:49.280 --> 10:51.280] You can't risk this at this point.

[10:51.280 --> 10:53.280] Do they have another launch date now?

[10:53.280 --> 10:54.280] Friday, I believe.

[10:54.280 --> 10:55.280] Tomorrow.

[10:55.280 --> 10:57.280] Well, it's tomorrow or yesterday.

[10:57.280 --> 10:58.280] Yesterday.

[10:58.280 --> 10:59.280] Yeah.

[10:59.280 --> 11:00.280] Time travel.

[11:00.280 --> 11:01.280] It's in two days or yesterday to begin.

[11:01.280 --> 11:02.280] How will it go yesterday?

[11:02.280 --> 11:03.280] We will find out.

[11:03.280 --> 11:04.280] Tomorrow.

[11:04.280 --> 11:05.280] Stay tuned.

[11:05.280 --> 11:09.280] As you're listening to this, you probably know more than we do as you're recording it.

[11:09.280 --> 11:11.280] We know more than we do right now.

[11:11.280 --> 11:14.280] We'll give an update next week one way or the other.

[11:14.280 --> 11:16.280] I know podcast time.

[11:16.280 --> 11:18.280] It's all timey-wimey.

[11:18.280 --> 11:19.280] Talk about time travel.

[11:19.280 --> 11:20.280] Timey-wimey.

[11:20.280 --> 11:22.280] Boy, try doing a podcast for 18 years.

[11:22.280 --> 11:24.280] All right, let's go on with some news items.

News Items

S:

B:

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J:

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(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

Hot Summer (11:24)

• This Hot Summer Is One of the Coolest of the Rest of Our Lives

[11:24.280 --> 11:27.280] Jay, you're going to start by telling us how hot it's been this summer.

[11:27.280 --> 11:28.280] Oh, my gosh.

[11:28.280 --> 11:33.280] Yeah, I just wanted to go over some facts that have come across my desk recently about

[11:33.280 --> 11:38.280] global warming and the temperatures that a lot of us have been experiencing that live

[11:38.280 --> 11:43.280] in this part of the world, right, because I'm in the United States.

[11:43.280 --> 11:46.280] So I'm going to get right to the point.

[11:46.280 --> 11:51.280] This year, even though this past year was hotter than most that we've had recently,

[11:51.280 --> 11:56.280] this summer that we've experienced will be one of the coolest years that we'll have in

[11:56.280 --> 11:57.280] a very long time.

[11:57.280 --> 11:58.280] Think about that.

[11:58.280 --> 11:59.280] That's so depressing, Jay.

[11:59.280 --> 12:00.280] Yeah, it is.

[12:00.280 --> 12:05.280] It's horribly depressing, but it's important to talk about because I know most people that

[12:05.280 --> 12:12.280] listen to this show understand climate change and probably want to see a lot of things done

[12:12.280 --> 12:14.280] to mitigate it as best as we can.

[12:14.280 --> 12:15.280] But we need to think about that.

[12:15.280 --> 12:19.280] This may have been the coldest summer for the rest of our life.

[12:19.280 --> 12:20.280] Yep.

[12:20.280 --> 12:21.280] Right.

[12:21.280 --> 12:22.280] Yeah.

[12:22.280 --> 12:23.280] So hot.

[12:23.280 --> 12:24.280] Yeah.

[12:24.280 --> 12:25.280] Oh, and but let me let's dig in.

[12:25.280 --> 12:26.280] Dry or wet.

[12:26.280 --> 12:27.280] Depending on.

[12:27.280 --> 12:30.280] It'll get worse than it is now, of course, because global warming is getting better

[12:30.280 --> 12:33.280] because we're still, you know, polluting the atmosphere.

[12:33.280 --> 12:39.280] So this this past July in Europe, there was a heat wave and where the temperatures went

[12:39.280 --> 12:43.280] over one hundred and four degrees Fahrenheit or 40 degrees Celsius.

[12:43.280 --> 12:47.280] This broke literally the historical record for high temperatures there.

[12:47.280 --> 12:52.280] China in July hit one hundred and five degrees Fahrenheit or forty point nine degrees Celsius

[12:52.280 --> 12:54.280] here in the United States.

[12:54.280 --> 12:59.280] Areas in Texas had two weeks of of one hundred degrees or more Fahrenheit or thirty seven

[12:59.280 --> 13:00.280] point seven degrees Celsius.

[13:00.280 --> 13:06.280] So, you know, we're seeing spots all around the world where when when there was a summer

[13:06.280 --> 13:13.280] that summer was one of the hottest that have ever been recorded in the history of mankind.

[13:13.280 --> 13:14.280] You know what I mean?

[13:14.280 --> 13:17.280] Like, you know, the last couple of hundred years, say, you know, I'm not going back.

[13:17.280 --> 13:22.280] We don't go back that much farther when it comes to legitimate temperatures.

[13:22.280 --> 13:29.280] So averaging out June and July in the northern hemisphere, it was in the top three hottest

[13:29.280 --> 13:30.280] summers ever.

[13:30.280 --> 13:34.280] Unfortunately, these temperatures are not where the record high temperatures stay.

[13:34.280 --> 13:37.280] They're where these heat levels begin on their rise upward.

[13:37.280 --> 13:39.280] You understand what I'm saying here?

[13:39.280 --> 13:44.280] The heat that we had in the northern hemisphere this year, right, in the past couple of months,

[13:44.280 --> 13:48.280] as an example, they were at one of the highest that's ever been measured.

[13:48.280 --> 13:52.280] But these temperatures are just going to go up from this high temperature.

[13:52.280 --> 13:53.280] Right.

[13:53.280 --> 13:56.280] So, again, what Steve said, this was the coldest summer that you're probably ever going to

[13:56.280 --> 13:58.280] have for the rest of your life.

[13:58.280 --> 14:01.280] We're not just hitting high temperatures, but we're hitting longer time frames that

[14:01.280 --> 14:05.280] temperatures are going to stay high as well, which is the really dangerous part, which

[14:05.280 --> 14:06.280] I'll get into in a second.

[14:06.280 --> 14:12.280] So tracking temperatures since about 1850, we're seeing a bold warming trend since the

[14:12.280 --> 14:14.280] late 80s and early 90s.

[14:14.280 --> 14:18.280] Since the 90s, each decade to come was the hottest one on record.

[14:18.280 --> 14:25.280] So the 90s were the hottest decade of all time, that the aughts were the hottest, the

[14:25.280 --> 14:26.280] teens were the hottest.

[14:26.280 --> 14:31.280] And now moving into the 2020s, it's already lining up to be the hottest decade of all

[14:31.280 --> 14:32.280] time.

[14:32.280 --> 14:33.280] Huh.

[14:33.280 --> 14:34.280] I wonder who predicted that.

[14:34.280 --> 14:35.280] Yes, I know.

[14:35.280 --> 14:37.280] But nobody believed us.

[14:37.280 --> 14:41.280] So this is the trend is what I'd like to say.

[14:41.280 --> 14:42.280] People who believe the scientists.

[14:42.280 --> 14:43.280] Yes.

[14:43.280 --> 14:46.280] Who believe in science and the process of climate scientists.

[14:46.280 --> 14:50.280] So we all agree it's shockingly obvious what's going on.

[14:50.280 --> 14:54.280] There will still be oddball years and locations on the planet where the average temperature

[14:54.280 --> 14:57.280] could be lower than what you would consider hot.

[14:57.280 --> 14:58.280] Right.

[14:58.280 --> 15:00.280] You know, this is we're talking about global averages here.

[15:00.280 --> 15:04.280] So if you live in some town somewhere out there, then you have a cool summer.

[15:04.280 --> 15:07.280] It doesn't mean that all of global warming is wrong.

[15:07.280 --> 15:08.280] It's just the way weather works.

[15:08.280 --> 15:12.280] But when we look at the temperatures globally, the average trend is temperatures are going

[15:12.280 --> 15:15.280] up, sealed, signed and delivered.

[15:15.280 --> 15:16.280] That's what's happening.

[15:16.280 --> 15:21.280] So going with global projections and the use of historical temperatures, what we're seeing

[15:21.280 --> 15:27.280] is that summer temperatures are increasing from four to seven degrees, depending on where

[15:27.280 --> 15:28.280] you live.

[15:28.280 --> 15:33.280] And this is going this four to seven degree rise is being realized right now.

[15:33.280 --> 15:38.280] So this four to seven degrees is a projection that goes to 2050.

[15:38.280 --> 15:43.280] But, you know, we're seeing we're seeing temperatures already on an average increase going up.

[15:43.280 --> 15:49.280] But by 2050, through all the ways that we have to to project into the future, the temperature

[15:49.280 --> 15:54.280] could go up as much as seven degrees where you are, wherever you are right now.

[15:54.280 --> 15:57.280] And that is a lot for the summer, I'm saying, not your winter.

[15:57.280 --> 16:02.280] I'm just saying in the summer, your your your hottest temperature can go up to seven degrees.

[16:02.280 --> 16:05.280] So as global warming increases, summer heat waves will be more common.

[16:05.280 --> 16:09.280] They'll last longer and it gets worse the closer to the equator you get.

[16:09.280 --> 16:12.280] Now, Kara, I'm going to use you as an example.

[16:12.280 --> 16:17.280] So we're in the United States, almost half of all Americans now experience at least three

[16:17.280 --> 16:21.280] consecutive days of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or thirty seven point seven degrees Celsius

[16:21.280 --> 16:22.280] or hotter in a row.

[16:22.280 --> 16:23.280] Right.

[16:23.280 --> 16:24.280] That's what just happened this summer.

[16:24.280 --> 16:28.280] That's the average experience of somebody living in the United States.

[16:28.280 --> 16:30.280] Now, keep in mind, this is the average.

[16:30.280 --> 16:38.280] If you are in Florida, Kara, you could have 70 consecutive days of 100 degrees or 37.7.

[16:38.280 --> 16:39.280] Yes.

[16:39.280 --> 16:40.280] Get it.

[16:40.280 --> 16:41.280] Get it.

[16:41.280 --> 16:44.280] Everybody keeps telling me it's going to get better next month and then it'll be beautiful

[16:44.280 --> 16:46.280] for like six months straight.

[16:46.280 --> 16:50.280] And that average number is going to go up as the years go by.

[16:50.280 --> 16:52.280] You know, you see the case the case that I'm building here.

[16:52.280 --> 16:55.280] We need to make take action as quickly as possible.

[16:55.280 --> 16:58.280] Right. You know, this is we're seeing some activity happening with the U.S.

[16:58.280 --> 16:59.280] government right now.

[16:59.280 --> 17:05.280] Biden just allocated funds, a good amount of funds to help with global warming mitigation

[17:05.280 --> 17:07.280] nowhere near where it should be.

[17:07.280 --> 17:11.280] It's literally a drop in the bucket of where we need to go.

[17:11.280 --> 17:14.280] But at least it's starting and hopefully it'll be sustained.

[17:14.280 --> 17:19.280] Now, as expected, overnight low temperatures are also increasing.

[17:19.280 --> 17:23.280] This is troubling because many people don't have access to air conditioning.

[17:23.280 --> 17:29.280] And this means that people will be living for extended periods of time in high temperatures

[17:29.280 --> 17:31.280] with no nighttime recovery period.

[17:31.280 --> 17:33.280] And this is not a good thing.

[17:33.280 --> 17:39.280] It's troubling because, you know, the extended heat exposure is, of course, dangerous to both

[17:39.280 --> 17:41.280] your physical and your mental health.

[17:41.280 --> 17:44.280] It's going to cost globally.

[17:44.280 --> 17:50.280] It's going to be trillions of dollars in medical attention that people are going to need just

[17:50.280 --> 17:52.280] because of global warming.

[17:52.280 --> 17:54.280] I saw a video recently.

[17:54.280 --> 17:56.280] I was very sad to see this.

[17:56.280 --> 18:00.280] But there was a ton of elderly people in China and they're all sitting in an air conditioned

[18:00.280 --> 18:04.280] supermarket to get out of the heat because they had no other way to cool off.

[18:04.280 --> 18:09.280] And, Jay, this is also another positive feedback loop for climate change, because think about

[18:09.280 --> 18:16.280] it, as temperatures warm, more locations on the planet, you basically can't exist without

[18:16.280 --> 18:17.280] air conditioning.

[18:17.280 --> 18:22.280] And people are going to be running their air conditioner for more, right, higher to get

[18:22.280 --> 18:27.280] the temperature from a higher point down to a comfortable zone for more days of the year.

[18:27.280 --> 18:29.280] That's going to use up a lot of electricity.

[18:29.280 --> 18:33.280] That electricity is going to be coming in part from burning coal or other fossil fuels

[18:33.280 --> 18:36.280] that have completely switched over.

[18:36.280 --> 18:42.280] And so that's, again, another negative feedback into worsening climate change.

[18:42.280 --> 18:43.280] Definitely.

[18:43.280 --> 18:48.280] I wonder if we're going to see underground, more underground homes, because I remember

[18:48.280 --> 18:54.280] reading and I've, you know, if you're under the ground, it's like a consistent temperature.

[18:54.280 --> 18:58.280] Once you get past a certain depth, it's pretty consistent, like 58 degrees.

[18:58.280 --> 19:01.280] That's my number that I've read as well, Evan.

[19:01.280 --> 19:07.280] And so 58 degrees, it takes much less energy to go from 58 to a comfort level than to go

[19:07.280 --> 19:14.280] from, you know, 20, 30, you know, Fahrenheit or 90, 100 Fahrenheit down or up to your comfort

[19:14.280 --> 19:15.280] zone.

[19:15.280 --> 19:18.280] So I wonder if we're going to see a lot of that, because that seems like a good idea

[19:18.280 --> 19:19.280] now.

[19:19.280 --> 19:25.280] Well, Bob, a way to capitalize on the continuous temperature underground is to use geothermal.

[19:25.280 --> 19:31.280] I was going to put geothermal in my house, but I ran into a snag because it takes eight

[19:31.280 --> 19:35.280] months for them to actually go through everything that needs to be done.

[19:35.280 --> 19:39.280] There's lots of permitting and they have to drill a well and do a lot of heavy lifting

[19:39.280 --> 19:40.280] to do it.

[19:40.280 --> 19:45.280] It's much more expensive to do, but in the long run, God, I wish I did it.

[19:45.280 --> 19:46.280] I really do.

[19:46.280 --> 19:50.280] I wish I could have, but I couldn't go another summer with my children in an unconditioned

[19:50.280 --> 19:51.280] house.

[19:51.280 --> 19:52.280] So I had to go.

[19:52.280 --> 19:54.280] I went with a gas furnace.

[19:54.280 --> 19:59.280] But anyway, you know, if you're looking to get new equipment for your house, consider

[19:59.280 --> 20:00.280] geothermal.

[20:00.280 --> 20:02.280] I really am impressed with how it works.

[20:02.280 --> 20:03.280] Yeah.

[20:03.280 --> 20:04.280] Now here's another problem.

[20:04.280 --> 20:08.280] Current energy grids are not built to handle significant increases in electrical capacity.

[20:08.280 --> 20:09.280] Straight up.

[20:09.280 --> 20:10.280] That's it.

[20:10.280 --> 20:11.280] That's the way it is.

[20:11.280 --> 20:13.280] Most countries are not ready.

[20:13.280 --> 20:19.280] They are not there to handle the increase in electrical use and electricity production.

[20:19.280 --> 20:24.280] So it's too late to completely avoid rising temperatures, but it's very important and

[20:24.280 --> 20:28.280] relevant to say we do, however, have control over how bad it gets and how well we deal

[20:28.280 --> 20:30.280] with the heat when it does come.

[20:30.280 --> 20:36.280] And we can mitigate a lot of future damage that we haven't done yet, that if we do nothing

[20:36.280 --> 20:37.280] is going to take place.

[20:37.280 --> 20:38.280] Right.

[20:38.280 --> 20:42.280] So, you know, we need to we need to vote for people who care about this.

[20:42.280 --> 20:47.280] And we need to and everybody needs to become an activist when it comes to global warming.

[20:47.280 --> 20:50.280] Obviously, this is a story that we will continue to follow.

[20:50.280 --> 20:56.280] But, you know, we've been doing it for 17 years and pretty much exactly what the scientists

[20:56.280 --> 20:59.280] were saying was going to happen 17 years ago is happening now.

[20:59.280 --> 21:00.280] You know what I mean?

[21:00.280 --> 21:01.280] It's not only if anything worse.

[21:01.280 --> 21:02.280] Yeah.

[21:02.280 --> 21:04.280] If anything, it's getting a little bit worse.

Tear Down This Paywall (21:04)

• No more paywalls for public research, says White House

Volcano Catastrophe (30:09)

• Risk of volcano catastrophe 'a roll of the dice'

Solar Energy Update (44:19)

• Organic Solar Cells and Other Solar Advances

Interview with Dr. Seema Yasmin (1:07:53)

• What The Fact?: Finding The Truth In All The Noise

Who's That Noisy? (1:26:50)

Answer to previous Noisy:

Puzzle solved sound from The Legend of Zelda

New Noisy (1:30:50)

[male voice? shushing in perhaps an Asian language]

J: ... what is that that we're hearing.

Science or Fiction (1:33:24)

Theme: Common Myths Item #1: The notion that humans have as many hair follicles as chimpanzees, on average, is false, with our closest cousins having 2-3 times as many as humans. Item #2: Bagpipes do not have their origin in Scotland, but are rather an ancient instrument. In fact, Nero was more likely to have played the bagpipes than the fiddle while Rome burned (although that is also a myth). Item #3: Contrary to common lore, the QWERTY keyboard layout was not created to limit jamming but rather was designed for convenience.

Answer	Item
Fiction	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles
Science	Bagpipes not Scottish in origin
Science	Qwerty made for convenience

Host	Result
Steve	win

Rogue	Guess
Evan	Qwerty made for convenience
Bob	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles
Cara	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles
Jay	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:46:35)

If you have an effect that nobody can replicate, then your phenomenon fades away. So if you want to have a legacy, then you jolly well better have an effect that replicates.
– Susan Fiske, American social psychologist

Signoff/Announcements

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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Today I Learned

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• Fact/Description
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References

Vocabulary