SGU Episode 912: Difference between revisions
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=== Steve Explains Item #_n_ === <!-- delete if no 4th item --> | === Steve Explains Item #_n_ === <!-- delete if no 4th item --> | ||
'''S:''' Well, let's move on to science or fiction. | |||
'''S:''' Each week I come up with three science news items or facts, two real and one fake, and then I challenge my panel of skeptics to tell me which one is the fake. | |||
'''S:''' So this is the last science or fiction for the year, and we're going to start, as we always do on this episode, by going over some statistics. | |||
'''S:''' Are you guys ready for this? | |||
'''E:''' No. | |||
'''E:''' No. | |||
'''S:''' I have a feeling you did terrible. | |||
'''S:''' I included the episode that hasn't aired yet because obviously we had a couple of listeners who very nicely – | |||
'''E:''' Why would you do that? I got those wrong. | |||
'''S:''' Collated the stats for us, but I had to add in the episode they haven't heard since they were not privy to it. | |||
'''S:''' All right. | |||
'''S:''' We'll start with Bob, who got 27 correct out of 53 participations. | |||
'''S:''' I don't know how that turned out to be 53. | |||
'''S:''' They must have included the one from the end of last year. | |||
'''C:''' Oh, but also, Steve, if you included both of the ones we just recorded, what – | |||
'''S:''' I did, only the one that's going to air. Oh, okay. | |||
'''S:''' I looked at the top. | |||
'''S:''' I did not include the one that's not going to air. | |||
'''S:''' You included the sweep. | |||
'''S:''' I know what I'm doing. | |||
'''S:''' I know what I'm doing. | |||
'''S:''' Relax. | |||
'''S:''' So Bob, you're at 50.9%. | |||
'''S:''' So you broke 50%. | |||
'''S:''' That's good. | |||
'''B:''' That's good, Bob. | |||
'''B:''' Yeah, whatever. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, that's great. | |||
'''S:''' Evan, 26 out of 49 for 53.1%. | |||
'''E:''' Oh my gosh. | |||
'''E:''' Better than I thought. | |||
'''S:''' Jay, 29 out of 50 for 58%. | |||
'''C:''' Ooh, Jay. | |||
'''S:''' And Cara, how do you think you did? | |||
'''C:''' Like around how Jay did probably. | |||
'''S:''' I'm assuming you're going in order, so slightly better. | |||
'''S:''' 35, 48. | |||
'''S:''' 72.9%, Cara. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah. | |||
'''S:''' Jeez. | |||
'''S:''' You always underestimate how well you do. | |||
'''S:''' 72.9%. | |||
'''C:''' Yes, because the hard beats are so hard. | |||
'''C:''' What about you, Steve? | |||
'''C:''' I had 0%. | |||
'''S:''' I played one game and I lost. | |||
'''S:''' So I was at 0%. | |||
'''S:''' You suck. | |||
'''E:''' We got to get you in the game, up to bat a few more times. | |||
'''E:''' Yeah, yeah. | |||
'''S:''' You guys should cover more often. | |||
'''S:''' So I guess for a few. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, put me down for a couple this coming year, Steve. | |||
'''E:''' Yeah, okay. | |||
'''S:''' There's some other ways to break this down, however. | |||
'''S:''' So we could go by the percentage correct based on when they went in the order, when you guys went in the order. | |||
'''S:''' So the first person, the person who went first was correct 46% of the time. | |||
'''S:''' Second, 54%. | |||
'''S:''' Third, 61.2%. | |||
'''S:''' Fourth, 72.7%. | |||
'''S:''' Wow. | |||
'''E:''' Nice. | |||
'''E:''' That is – wow, how linear can you get right there? | |||
'''S:''' And on a few times when we had five people, the fifth person going was correct 100% of the time. | |||
'''S:''' Oh, that's amazing. | |||
'''S:''' Wow. | |||
'''B:''' That's really cool. | |||
'''B:''' How many times is that though? | |||
'''B:''' A fifth person? | |||
'''E:''' Probably not a third time. | |||
'''S:''' Probably only a couple of times. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, probably only a couple of times. | |||
'''S:''' Now, so the emailer said, so there is a clear advantage to going later in the game with last and fifth being the best spots. | |||
'''S:''' Apparently so. | |||
'''S:''' However, he is committing a fallacy and making that conclusion. | |||
'''S:''' What is the false assumption he's making? | |||
'''J:''' That going later increases your chances. | |||
'''S:''' No, but what – that's the conclusion. | |||
'''S:''' But there's a premise. | |||
'''S:''' There's a false premise in there. | |||
'''S:''' Jamblers. | |||
'''S:''' It's an unstated premise. | |||
'''S:''' It's not an – | |||
'''C:''' That somebody is getting it right before you? No. | |||
'''S:''' The unstated premise is that the order is random. | |||
'''S:''' The order is not random. | |||
'''S:''' I decide when you guys go. | |||
'''S:''' Now, I try to mix it up to make it fair. | |||
'''S:''' But I also – if I think you have an advantage, I will make you go last. | |||
'''S:''' Sure. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, yeah, yeah. | |||
'''E:''' You do that a lot. | |||
'''E:''' It's a topic about Thanksgiving. | |||
'''S:''' Jay is going last. | |||
'''S:''' Yes. | |||
'''S:''' If it's like a psychology thing, I'll make Cara go last. | |||
'''S:''' If it's an astronomy thing, I'll probably make Bob go last. | |||
'''S:''' If it's a tax thing, they never have. | |||
'''E:''' Tax thing, you never know. | |||
'''S:''' So he was assuming that going last caused you to have an advantage, but it's more that if you have an advantage, I make you go last. | |||
'''S:''' Right. | |||
'''C:''' Interesting. | |||
'''C:''' And it's probably – I would assume the variance is kind of in both, Cara. | |||
'''J:''' You see how complicated this gets? | |||
'''S:''' No, I do think it's both, mainly because there's a dose response, right? | |||
'''S:''' It's a linear – it's not just that last position. | |||
'''S:''' It is – but I also – I also think like if I think you're the person who's most vulnerable, I'll make you go first. | |||
'''E:''' For sure. | |||
'''E:''' It's the only way to blind us during this game. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah. | |||
'''S:''' We've tried that. | |||
'''S:''' It just wasn't as fun. | |||
'''E:''' Too cumbersome. | |||
'''E:''' Yeah, right. | |||
'''E:''' It doesn't – the dialogue goes over. | |||
'''S:''' All right. | |||
'''S:''' So here is the stats on who went first. | |||
'''S:''' Bob went first 20% of the time. | |||
'''S:''' Cara 22%, Evan 26%, Jay 22%. | |||
'''S:''' Not a bad distribution. | |||
'''S:''' Not a bad distribution. | |||
'''S:''' I'm freewheeling it. | |||
'''S:''' So that's pretty good. | |||
'''S:''' The person going last was Bob 14%, Cara 30%. | |||
'''S:''' So you do have an advantage going in that last position. | |||
'''S:''' Wow, that's big. | |||
'''S:''' Who would Cara bias there? | |||
'''S:''' Evan 22%, Jay 28%. | |||
'''C:''' So that – I mean that could be some contribution to me and Jay's higher wins. | |||
'''C:''' It could be. | |||
'''C:''' But also like you said, sometimes you put us last because you're afraid that we have more knowledge about the topic. | |||
'''S:''' Right, right, right. | |||
'''S:''' So that could also advantage us. | |||
'''S:''' I do look at the stats and it does influence me a little bit for the following. | |||
'''S:''' It's like if things get a little bit too out of range, I do correct a little bit. | |||
'''E:''' There's no perfect formula. | |||
'''E:''' I mean let's face it. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah. | |||
'''S:''' Oh, yeah. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah. | |||
'''S:''' It's all based on what's going to be the most fun and interesting. | |||
'''S:''' And then finally, the first answer was correct 40% of the time. | |||
'''S:''' The second answer 32% of the time and the third answer 28% of the time. | |||
'''S:''' Interesting. | |||
'''S:''' So again, the emailer said – so if you went in doubt, guess the first answer. | |||
'''S:''' What's the fallacies? | |||
'''S:''' I mean I think they were joking. | |||
'''S:''' But I mean the fallacy there is that past performance is a prediction of future performance. | |||
'''S:''' Right. | |||
'''S:''' Now the order of which one is correct is random. | |||
'''S:''' I literally roll a die and whatever it is, that's what it is. | |||
'''S:''' How funny. | |||
'''S:''' Because that you can't randomize things subjectively. | |||
'''S:''' You know what I mean? | |||
'''S:''' Like I would definitely be biased and – | |||
'''E:''' You've tested this die that you roll for accuracy and – Yeah, it's just a regular D6. | |||
'''S:''' It's fine. | |||
'''S:''' And every year it's a different number. | |||
'''S:''' It's a different number that's – I think last year it was more number three I think or whatever, number two. | |||
'''S:''' But it is completely random. | |||
'''E:''' It's all random. | |||
'''E:''' It's all random. | |||
'''S:''' Because otherwise if you tried to randomize something yourself, you would do things like not pick the same one three in a row and then you would basically know that – | |||
'''C:''' You would commit a bunch of weird fallacies in your attempt to randomize. | |||
'''S:''' So I just roll a die. So always interesting. | |||
'''S:''' Now you have one more episode this year right now. | |||
'''S:''' Right now. | |||
'''E:''' So this will count. | |||
'''S:''' This will count. | |||
'''S:''' We'll adjust the percentages. | |||
'''S:''' We'll see how you guys do. | |||
'''S:''' Is everyone – Now Ian, you actually had a couple – I think you went once last year and you were at 100%. | |||
'''S:''' All right, Ian. | |||
'''S:''' Good job, Ian. | |||
'''IC:''' DWI. | |||
'''IC:''' Out of one, you know, one of one. | |||
'''S:''' All right. | |||
'''S:''' So I have three items this week and the theme for this week – Now I mix it up. | |||
'''S:''' Usually at the end of the year show I do some kind of end of the year themed thing. | |||
'''S:''' So sometimes I'll do items that we've covered earlier in the year or news items that we didn't cover earlier in the year. | |||
'''S:''' For the first time though, I'm going to do a 100-year shift. | |||
'''S:''' So these are three items about 1922. | |||
'''S:''' No way. | |||
'''E:''' 2022. | |||
'''E:''' No problem. | |||
'''S:''' See how much you – Yeah, this is always – trying to place things in history is always interesting. | |||
'''E:''' The answer is flappers. | |||
'''S:''' OK. | |||
'''S:''' Three science news items about 1922. | |||
'''S:''' Here we go. | |||
'''S:''' Item number one. | |||
'''S:''' In 1922, physicians Frederick Banting and Charles Best of Toronto, Canada, injected the first patient with insulin, a 14-year-old boy with type 1 diabetes who would have died without the treatment. | |||
'''S:''' Item number two. | |||
'''S:''' In 1922, Walter Hurt, Bruno Tesch, and others developed hydrogen cyanide as a pesticide under the brand name Zyklon B. | |||
'''S:''' And item number three. | |||
'''B:''' That was 22 as well? | |||
'''S:''' Yep. | |||
'''S:''' The theme is 1922. | |||
'''S:''' And in 1922, Walter Sutton and Theodore Bovary independently developed the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, identifying chromosomes as the carriers of genetic material. | |||
'''S:''' All right. | |||
'''S:''' Cara, since you are winning this year, you get to go first. | |||
'''IC:''' How dare you? | |||
'''IC:''' Actually, I'm winning. | |||
'''S:''' No big deal. | |||
'''C:''' Yeah, but that doesn't – Okay, so I don't know off the top of my head which of these really sticks out. | |||
'''C:''' Okay, so 1922, I'm really trying to like put myself in what was going on in 1922, like what did laboratories look like, what kinds of discoveries were happening to them, all from memory. | |||
'''C:''' So basically insulin, hydrogen cyanide as a pesticide, which I know the least about. | |||
'''S:''' You recognize the name Zyklon B? | |||
'''C:''' I recognize Zyklon B. | |||
'''C:''' I've definitely heard that name, but I know the least about like when that would have been or if that is – I don't think you would pull one over on us and like use a different formula. | |||
'''C:''' This probably was discovered. | |||
'''C:''' It probably was discovered by these guys or developed. | |||
'''C:''' But like I don't know if it was 1922 or if it was like, I don't know, 1960. | |||
'''C:''' Wait, 60. | |||
'''C:''' And then Walter Sutton and Theodore Bovary independently developing the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, identifying chromosomes as the carriers of genetic material. | |||
'''C:''' I feel like we knew that before then because I feel like Mendel was like in the mid-1800s, and I know that he didn't know about genes, but like it was like Darwin first was saying there's something that's being passed on and we don't really know what it is. | |||
'''C:''' And then Mendel was like there are these discrete packets of information, like look, the bees are wrinkly, and now they're not, and now they're wrinkly again. | |||
'''C:''' But like nobody knew what genes were, and I feel like Mendel was in the mid-1800s, so I feel like that would have happened sooner. | |||
'''C:''' So I don't know. | |||
'''C:''' That's the one that sticks out to me as being like a little bit off. | |||
'''C:''' Like I think it's too late for the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, but I could be way off on the pesticide too. | |||
'''C:''' But I'm going to put my nickel down on the chromosomes, the third one. | |||
'''S:''' Okay. And Che. | |||
'''J:''' Did you just pick the last one, Cara? | |||
'''J:''' I did. | |||
'''J:''' I did. | |||
'''J:''' I'm going to go with Cara. | |||
'''J:''' Any particular reason? | |||
'''J:''' Statistically making the correct decision. | |||
'''C:''' Based on – oh, this is terrible. | |||
'''C:''' Don't base anything you do right now on anything that Steve read previously, like science or fiction. | |||
'''C:''' And remember I'm sick, Jay. | |||
'''C:''' I'm very sick. | |||
'''J:''' But I'm sick too. | |||
'''J:''' That's why it makes perfect sense. | |||
'''J:''' Right. | |||
'''J:''' Yes. | |||
'''S:''' All right. Evan? | |||
'''E:''' Frederick Banting and Charles Best. | |||
'''E:''' Do all these have like multiple people associated with them? | |||
'''E:''' It looks like they do. | |||
'''E:''' Most scientific discoveries do. | |||
'''E:''' At least two. | |||
'''E:''' Okay. | |||
'''E:''' Yeah, that's true. | |||
'''E:''' Of course, of course. | |||
'''E:''' Insulin, huh? | |||
'''E:''' Who injected the first patient with insulin? | |||
'''E:''' Would that have been 1922? | |||
'''E:''' That could have been earlier maybe. | |||
'''E:''' 14-year-old boy. | |||
'''E:''' I don't know. | |||
'''E:''' I know nothing about this. | |||
'''E:''' 1922 though. | |||
'''E:''' Why do I have a feeling though insulin was around earlier than that? | |||
'''E:''' This would have been the first time a patient got injected with it? | |||
'''E:''' It seems a little off. | |||
'''E:''' The second one, Walter Heard and Bruno Tesch and others developed. | |||
'''E:''' Oh, boy. | |||
'''E:''' The pesticide and then Zyklon B, of course, the gas used in the concentration camps. | |||
'''S:''' So not the 1960s. | |||
'''S:''' Right. | |||
'''C:''' Right. | |||
'''C:''' Right. | |||
'''C:''' So that's what I was missing. | |||
'''E:''' 1922. | |||
'''E:''' Shit. | |||
'''E:''' Under the brand name Zyklon B. | |||
'''E:''' I don't know about this one either. | |||
'''E:''' Shit. | |||
'''E:''' I cannot make that connection at all. | |||
'''E:''' Gee whiz. | |||
'''E:''' I don't know. | |||
'''E:''' I don't know. | |||
'''E:''' Steve, I don't know any of these. | |||
'''E:''' And even the last one. | |||
'''E:''' I don't know. | |||
'''E:''' I mean, I wasn't alive. | |||
'''E:''' Don't blame me. | |||
'''E:''' Gosh. | |||
'''E:''' I guess I'll be different just for the sake of being different. | |||
'''E:''' I'll say the Walter Heard and Bruno Tesch, they may have developed something, maybe a pesticide or something, but I don't know if it was Zyklon B specifically. | |||
'''E:''' I think theirs in there is the fiction part of it. | |||
'''E:''' I don't know. | |||
'''E:''' But that's what it is. | |||
'''B:''' OK, Bob. | |||
'''B:''' So among the rogues, I'm last, finally. | |||
'''B:''' No, Jay hasn't gone. | |||
'''B:''' Jay hasn't gone either. | |||
'''B:''' Wait, Jay went. | |||
'''B:''' Jay went. | |||
'''B:''' Jay went. | |||
'''B:''' Jay went. | |||
'''B:''' So that brings me to a paltry 14.6% in the fourth position. | |||
'''B:''' So I thought about thanking you for that, but I decided against it, Steve. | |||
'''B:''' So I will say, let's see. | |||
'''B:''' Yeah, 1922, insulin. | |||
'''B:''' Yeah, it could be. | |||
'''B:''' Hydrogen cyanide, 1922 as well. | |||
'''B:''' That could be. | |||
'''B:''' That seems like a reasonable time. | |||
'''B:''' The third one, though, the chromosome theory, 1922, just seems too late to me. | |||
'''B:''' So I mean, I would have thought, you know, late 1800s, certainly before 1922. | |||
'''B:''' So that's why I'll say that's fiction. | |||
'''S:''' OK, and Ian, you get to go last. | |||
'''IC:''' Does this mean you think I know more about all these items than anyone else? | |||
'''IC:''' Sugar. | |||
'''S:''' If that makes you feel better. | |||
'''IC:''' Given that I replaced all of Steve's dice with trick dice in the house, I'm going to say that it's number one. | |||
'''IC:''' I don't know. | |||
'''IC:''' You know what? | |||
'''IC:''' I must be ignorant because I thought Zyklon B was like a planet or something sci-fi. | |||
'''IC:''' You know what? | |||
'''IC:''' I'm going to be different as well and be I'm going to go with number one and say that it's not insulin. | |||
'''IC:''' All right. | |||
'''C:''' Boy, look at that. | |||
'''C:''' No sweep for Steve. | |||
'''S:''' So do you think insulin is earlier or later than 22? | |||
'''IC:''' I would say it's earlier. | |||
'''S:''' All right. | |||
'''S:''' So yeah, we're all spread out. | |||
'''S:''' I like to see that. | |||
'''S:''' Bob Jay and Cara think that the chromosome theory is too late. | |||
'''S:''' Evan thinks that Zyklon B was not developed by these guys or something different. | |||
'''S:''' And then Ian thinks that insulin was, did you say earlier or later? | |||
'''IC:''' I mean, the only thing is that you still have to carry vials or you did for a while of insulin and shoot yourself up. | |||
'''IC:''' So maybe it is later. | |||
'''IC:''' It's just like so kind of archaic. | |||
'''IC:''' You know, I'm going to say later. | |||
'''C:''' Yeah. | |||
'''C:''' Just wow. | |||
'''C:''' Wasn't it produced from like rabbits? | |||
'''S:''' Maybe. | |||
'''S:''' I don't know. | |||
'''S:''' Horse pancreases actually. | |||
'''S:''' Oh, horse. | |||
'''S:''' Oh, okay. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, yeah, yeah. | |||
'''S:''' Here we go. | |||
'''S:''' Well, I guess we'll take them in order since we're all spread out. | |||
'''S:''' In 1922, physicians Frederick Banting and Charles Best of Toronto, Canada injected the first patient with insulin, a 14-year-old boy with type 1 diabetes who would have died without the treatment. | |||
'''S:''' Ian, you think this one is the fiction. | |||
'''S:''' Everyone else thinks this one is science. | |||
'''S:''' And this one is science. | |||
'''S:''' Sorry, Ian. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, 1922. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, so we knew about insulin before then, but they had to purify it. | |||
'''S:''' And these are the, you know, other people did that. | |||
'''S:''' And these are the first, you know, physicians to actually inject it into a human being. | |||
'''S:''' It had been studied in animals beforehand. | |||
'''S:''' And the first injection only worked temporarily. | |||
'''S:''' This is, again, type 1 diabetes prior to this was a death sentence. | |||
'''S:''' You go into a diabetic coma and you die. | |||
'''S:''' That's it. | |||
'''S:''' You're basically not making any insulin and you can't live without insulin. | |||
'''S:''' So this 14-year-old boy was basically in a diabetic coma. | |||
'''S:''' They injected him with insulin. | |||
'''S:''' It brought his sugar down a little bit, not enough. | |||
'''S:''' Then they gave him a second injection and he basically completely normalized his blood sugar and he came out of it. | |||
'''S:''' So, you know, we now know that. | |||
'''S:''' This is amazing. | |||
'''S:''' You know, you're not going to take somebody out of a diabetic coma with one injection of diabetes. | |||
'''S:''' Essentially, the insulin helps the sugar get into the cells. | |||
'''S:''' So the cells, all your sugar is in the blood. | |||
'''S:''' It's not getting into the cells. | |||
'''S:''' And so you give them an injection of insulin. | |||
'''S:''' And yes, some of that blood sugar is going to go into the cells, but they're starved. | |||
'''S:''' So you know, you need to keep doing that until you renormalize things. | |||
'''S:''' So typically we put people on an insulin drip and just keep giving it to them until we normalize. | |||
'''S:''' We don't want to renormalize their blood sugar. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, so that... | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, to give too much. | |||
'''S:''' Then you tank their blood sugar and then that's the opposite problem. | |||
'''S:''' That could kill them too. | |||
'''S:''' Put them in that, get a seizure or something. | |||
'''S:''' So then you just give them some—you just give them sugar, right? | |||
'''S:''' The treatment for that is sugar. | |||
'''C:''' Yeah, because—yeah, then it'll just use | |||
'''B:''' it. Right. | |||
'''B:''' If you need a treatment, I guess that's a | |||
'''S:''' good treatment. Yeah, yeah. | |||
'''S:''' Sugar! | |||
'''S:''' So absolute revolution. | |||
'''B:''' Absolute revolution. | |||
'''B:''' Oh my God, that must have been so amazing. | |||
'''S:''' And so at first, we were just purifying it from the pancreases of animals and mostly horses. | |||
'''S:''' And then of course, later on, we developed recombinant insulin. | |||
'''S:''' Basically, I think it's yeast. | |||
'''S:''' We have yeast cranking out insulin. | |||
'''S:''' That's sweet. | |||
'''S:''' That was another revolution. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah. | |||
'''S:''' Okay, let's go on to number two. | |||
'''S:''' In 1922, Walter Hurt and Bruno Tesch and others developed hydrogen cyanide as a pesticide under the brand name Zyklon B. | |||
'''S:''' As Evan pointed out, Zyklon B was the—what was—that is the gas that was used in gas chambers in the concentration camps. | |||
'''S:''' That's—that's why that name is famous. | |||
'''S:''' But it was developed as a pesticide, right? | |||
'''S:''' And it's Zyklon B because this was a revised version of Zyklon A. You know, they had—they just—they tweaked it and so it was the second iteration, Zyklon 2.0 as it were. | |||
'''C:''' It's weird, Ian. | |||
'''C:''' I didn't know that either. | |||
'''C:''' Like I didn't make that connection at all and this is like—I feel like this is new. | |||
'''C:''' I had heard the word but this feels like new information. | |||
'''C:''' Jay and Bob, you guys knew that? | |||
'''C:''' Knew what? | |||
'''J:''' The Zyklon B was the— Zyklon B was the gas. | |||
'''C:''' No, the Zyklon B was the gas. | |||
'''C:''' Oh, yeah. | |||
'''J:''' I mean, I learned it like several times in—in school. | |||
'''J:''' I watched a lot of World War II stuff. | |||
'''E:''' So interesting. | |||
'''E:''' I mean, it comes up all the time. | |||
'''E:''' I watched a lot of World War II stuff. | |||
'''C:''' Yeah, I guess I don't watch a lot of World War II stuff but I'm also wondering if there's been a generational shift in like how much detail is given. | |||
'''C:''' Maybe. | |||
'''C:''' You know, when we learn about this kind of stuff in school that there's like a fear of getting too graphic or too detail-oriented with kids. | |||
'''C:''' Yeah, I don't know. | |||
'''C:''' Jay Which is a mistake, I think. | |||
'''C:''' We're demonizing corporations. | |||
'''E:''' I agree but— Jay In Hebrew school, we learned about this when I was seven years old. | |||
'''E:''' Yeah, of course. | |||
'''E:''' Jay Yeah, of course. | |||
'''S:''' So the question is, is 20 years too big a gap? | |||
'''S:''' You know, this is like 20 years before it would have been used. | |||
'''S:''' So Evan, you think this one is the fiction. | |||
'''S:''' Everyone else thinks this one is science. | |||
'''S:''' And this one is science. | |||
'''S:''' Sorry, Evan. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, so that was the delay. | |||
'''S:''' It was developed 20 years before it started to get used in the concentration camps. | |||
'''S:''' And now it's absolutely famous for that reason, not as a pesticide. | |||
'''S:''' It was used for de-lousing too. | |||
'''S:''' And interesting— Jay That's where the Holocaust deniers come in. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, that's what I was going to bring up. | |||
'''S:''' The Holocaust deniers will say that the concentration of hydrogen cyanide on the walls of the gas chambers was, I think, like only 1% of what you would find in a de-lousing chamber. | |||
'''S:''' And therefore, the implications, it was negligible and therefore not used to kill people. | |||
'''S:''' But they leave out the fact that lice are much less susceptible to cyanide. | |||
'''S:''' And it takes 100 times the concentration to kill lice as it does to kill people. | |||
'''S:''' They always just leave that little fact out there and just create an implication of a conspiracy rather than providing all the facts that you could see. | |||
'''S:''' It makes perfect sense. | |||
'''S:''' They also will measure the amount on walls that are now exposed to the environment. | |||
'''S:''' So yeah, it kind of washes away over decades. | |||
'''S:''' But if you sample walls that are still intact on the inside, absolutely a lethal dose for humans. | |||
'''S:''' OK, all of this means that in 1922, Walter Sutton and Theodore Bovary independently developed the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, identifying chromosomes as the carriers of genetic material. | |||
'''S:''' Is the fiction? | |||
'''S:''' Why is it the fiction? | |||
'''S:''' Does everybody agree that it's because it actually happened earlier? | |||
'''C:''' Earlier. | |||
'''C:''' That's my guess, is earlier. | |||
'''S:''' Then when do you think it happened? | |||
'''S:''' What did Bob? | |||
'''J:''' I bet you it's late 1800s makes sense. | |||
'''J:''' Yeah, late 1800s. | |||
'''IC:''' I'm going to say they didn't independently do it. | |||
'''IC:''' They did it dependently. | |||
'''C:''' I feel like you would have to change at least one other thing. | |||
'''C:''' But yeah, I'd say late 1800s. | |||
'''C:''' 1902. | |||
'''S:''' It was 20 years earlier. | |||
'''S:''' Close to the 1800s. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, so you were right. | |||
'''S:''' It was too early. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, that was too late rather. | |||
'''S:''' So but yeah, remember though that Mendel's work was forgotten and had to be rediscovered. | |||
'''S:''' So there was a delay. | |||
'''S:''' That's why it wasn't the middle of the 1800s. | |||
'''S:''' But we didn't know. | |||
'''S:''' We didn't know. | |||
'''S:''' We knew that even when we knew conceptually that something like genes existed and was being passed on, the units of inheritance, we didn't know physically what was the substrate. | |||
'''S:''' And then so then it was discovered, well, it's the chromosomes. | |||
'''S:''' And for a long time, the thinking was that proteins were the substrate of inheritance, proteins until it was demonstrated that it was. | |||
'''S:''' Not a bad guess. | |||
'''S:''' Proteins are everywhere. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, nucleic acids. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, not a bad guess, but we didn't know, you know. | |||
'''S:''' That just happened to be a wrong hypothesis. | |||
'''S:''' And it was eventually proved that it was the DNA, which of course makes up the chromosomes. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah. | |||
'''E:''' And then the DNA denialists came along. | |||
'''E:''' Yeah. | |||
'''E:''' Said, no, it was proteins, damn it. | |||
'''S:''' Right, right, right. | |||
'''S:''' All right, so good job, guys. | |||
'''J:''' Thank you, Steve. | |||
'''J:''' Thank you. | |||
'''IC:''' I got a chocastitis. | |||
'''IC:''' I don't know. | |||
'''IC:''' Something's wrong with him. | |||
'''S:''' Yeah, yeah. | |||
'''E:''' You and I will have to talk later. | |||
'''S:''' Right. | |||
'''S:''' There will be puns. | |||
{{anchor|qow}} <!-- leave this anchor directly above the corresponding section that follows --> | {{anchor|qow}} <!-- leave this anchor directly above the corresponding section that follows --> | ||
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SGU Episode 912 |
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December 31st 2022 |
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Skeptical Rogues |
S: Steven Novella
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Introduction
Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.
Psychic Predictions ()
The rogues review predictions for 2022 and make their own predictions for 2023.
_ROGUE_'s Results ()
_text_when_ROGUE_references_previous_predictions_
Rogues' Predictions for YYYY
_ROGUE_'s Predictions ()
_text_when_ROGUE_introduces_new_predictions_
Year in Review ()
Best and Worst of the Year ()
Skeptical Heroes ()
Skeptical Jackasses ()
In Memoriam ()
Favorite News Items
News Items
S:
B:
C:
J:
E:
(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]
Who's That Noisy? ()
New Noisy ()
[_short_vague_description_of_Noisy]
Announcements ()
Questions/Emails/Corrections/Follow-ups ()
_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –
Question_Email_Correction #1: _brief_description_ ()
Question_Email_Correction #2: _brief_description_ ()
Science or Fiction (h:mm:ss)
Answer | Item |
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Fiction | |
Science |
Host | Result |
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Steve |
Rogue | Guess |
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Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.
_Rogue_ Response
_Rogue_ Response
_Rogue_ Response
_Rogue_ Response
Steve Explains Item #_n_
Steve Explains Item #_n_
Steve Explains Item #_n_
Steve Explains Item #_n_
S: Well, let's move on to science or fiction.
S: Each week I come up with three science news items or facts, two real and one fake, and then I challenge my panel of skeptics to tell me which one is the fake.
S: So this is the last science or fiction for the year, and we're going to start, as we always do on this episode, by going over some statistics.
S: Are you guys ready for this?
E: No.
E: No.
S: I have a feeling you did terrible.
S: I included the episode that hasn't aired yet because obviously we had a couple of listeners who very nicely –
E: Why would you do that? I got those wrong.
S: Collated the stats for us, but I had to add in the episode they haven't heard since they were not privy to it.
S: All right.
S: We'll start with Bob, who got 27 correct out of 53 participations.
S: I don't know how that turned out to be 53.
S: They must have included the one from the end of last year.
C: Oh, but also, Steve, if you included both of the ones we just recorded, what –
S: I did, only the one that's going to air. Oh, okay.
S: I looked at the top.
S: I did not include the one that's not going to air.
S: You included the sweep.
S: I know what I'm doing.
S: I know what I'm doing.
S: Relax.
S: So Bob, you're at 50.9%.
S: So you broke 50%.
S: That's good.
B: That's good, Bob.
B: Yeah, whatever.
S: Yeah, that's great.
S: Evan, 26 out of 49 for 53.1%.
E: Oh my gosh.
E: Better than I thought.
S: Jay, 29 out of 50 for 58%.
C: Ooh, Jay.
S: And Cara, how do you think you did?
C: Like around how Jay did probably.
S: I'm assuming you're going in order, so slightly better.
S: 35, 48.
S: 72.9%, Cara.
S: Yeah.
S: Jeez.
S: You always underestimate how well you do.
S: 72.9%.
C: Yes, because the hard beats are so hard.
C: What about you, Steve?
C: I had 0%.
S: I played one game and I lost.
S: So I was at 0%.
S: You suck.
E: We got to get you in the game, up to bat a few more times.
E: Yeah, yeah.
S: You guys should cover more often.
S: So I guess for a few.
S: Yeah, put me down for a couple this coming year, Steve.
E: Yeah, okay.
S: There's some other ways to break this down, however.
S: So we could go by the percentage correct based on when they went in the order, when you guys went in the order.
S: So the first person, the person who went first was correct 46% of the time.
S: Second, 54%.
S: Third, 61.2%.
S: Fourth, 72.7%.
S: Wow.
E: Nice.
E: That is – wow, how linear can you get right there?
S: And on a few times when we had five people, the fifth person going was correct 100% of the time.
S: Oh, that's amazing.
S: Wow.
B: That's really cool.
B: How many times is that though?
B: A fifth person?
E: Probably not a third time.
S: Probably only a couple of times.
S: Yeah, probably only a couple of times.
S: Now, so the emailer said, so there is a clear advantage to going later in the game with last and fifth being the best spots.
S: Apparently so.
S: However, he is committing a fallacy and making that conclusion.
S: What is the false assumption he's making?
J: That going later increases your chances.
S: No, but what – that's the conclusion.
S: But there's a premise.
S: There's a false premise in there.
S: Jamblers.
S: It's an unstated premise.
S: It's not an –
C: That somebody is getting it right before you? No.
S: The unstated premise is that the order is random.
S: The order is not random.
S: I decide when you guys go.
S: Now, I try to mix it up to make it fair.
S: But I also – if I think you have an advantage, I will make you go last.
S: Sure.
S: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
E: You do that a lot.
E: It's a topic about Thanksgiving.
S: Jay is going last.
S: Yes.
S: If it's like a psychology thing, I'll make Cara go last.
S: If it's an astronomy thing, I'll probably make Bob go last.
S: If it's a tax thing, they never have.
E: Tax thing, you never know.
S: So he was assuming that going last caused you to have an advantage, but it's more that if you have an advantage, I make you go last.
S: Right.
C: Interesting.
C: And it's probably – I would assume the variance is kind of in both, Cara.
J: You see how complicated this gets?
S: No, I do think it's both, mainly because there's a dose response, right?
S: It's a linear – it's not just that last position.
S: It is – but I also – I also think like if I think you're the person who's most vulnerable, I'll make you go first.
E: For sure.
E: It's the only way to blind us during this game.
S: Yeah.
S: We've tried that.
S: It just wasn't as fun.
E: Too cumbersome.
E: Yeah, right.
E: It doesn't – the dialogue goes over.
S: All right.
S: So here is the stats on who went first.
S: Bob went first 20% of the time.
S: Cara 22%, Evan 26%, Jay 22%.
S: Not a bad distribution.
S: Not a bad distribution.
S: I'm freewheeling it.
S: So that's pretty good.
S: The person going last was Bob 14%, Cara 30%.
S: So you do have an advantage going in that last position.
S: Wow, that's big.
S: Who would Cara bias there?
S: Evan 22%, Jay 28%.
C: So that – I mean that could be some contribution to me and Jay's higher wins.
C: It could be.
C: But also like you said, sometimes you put us last because you're afraid that we have more knowledge about the topic.
S: Right, right, right.
S: So that could also advantage us.
S: I do look at the stats and it does influence me a little bit for the following.
S: It's like if things get a little bit too out of range, I do correct a little bit.
E: There's no perfect formula.
E: I mean let's face it.
S: Yeah.
S: Oh, yeah.
S: Yeah.
S: It's all based on what's going to be the most fun and interesting.
S: And then finally, the first answer was correct 40% of the time.
S: The second answer 32% of the time and the third answer 28% of the time.
S: Interesting.
S: So again, the emailer said – so if you went in doubt, guess the first answer.
S: What's the fallacies?
S: I mean I think they were joking.
S: But I mean the fallacy there is that past performance is a prediction of future performance.
S: Right.
S: Now the order of which one is correct is random.
S: I literally roll a die and whatever it is, that's what it is.
S: How funny.
S: Because that you can't randomize things subjectively.
S: You know what I mean?
S: Like I would definitely be biased and –
E: You've tested this die that you roll for accuracy and – Yeah, it's just a regular D6.
S: It's fine.
S: And every year it's a different number.
S: It's a different number that's – I think last year it was more number three I think or whatever, number two.
S: But it is completely random.
E: It's all random.
E: It's all random.
S: Because otherwise if you tried to randomize something yourself, you would do things like not pick the same one three in a row and then you would basically know that –
C: You would commit a bunch of weird fallacies in your attempt to randomize.
S: So I just roll a die. So always interesting.
S: Now you have one more episode this year right now.
S: Right now.
E: So this will count.
S: This will count.
S: We'll adjust the percentages.
S: We'll see how you guys do.
S: Is everyone – Now Ian, you actually had a couple – I think you went once last year and you were at 100%.
S: All right, Ian.
S: Good job, Ian.
IC: DWI.
IC: Out of one, you know, one of one.
S: All right.
S: So I have three items this week and the theme for this week – Now I mix it up.
S: Usually at the end of the year show I do some kind of end of the year themed thing.
S: So sometimes I'll do items that we've covered earlier in the year or news items that we didn't cover earlier in the year.
S: For the first time though, I'm going to do a 100-year shift.
S: So these are three items about 1922.
S: No way.
E: 2022.
E: No problem.
S: See how much you – Yeah, this is always – trying to place things in history is always interesting.
E: The answer is flappers.
S: OK.
S: Three science news items about 1922.
S: Here we go.
S: Item number one.
S: In 1922, physicians Frederick Banting and Charles Best of Toronto, Canada, injected the first patient with insulin, a 14-year-old boy with type 1 diabetes who would have died without the treatment.
S: Item number two.
S: In 1922, Walter Hurt, Bruno Tesch, and others developed hydrogen cyanide as a pesticide under the brand name Zyklon B.
S: And item number three.
B: That was 22 as well?
S: Yep.
S: The theme is 1922.
S: And in 1922, Walter Sutton and Theodore Bovary independently developed the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, identifying chromosomes as the carriers of genetic material.
S: All right.
S: Cara, since you are winning this year, you get to go first.
IC: How dare you?
IC: Actually, I'm winning.
S: No big deal.
C: Yeah, but that doesn't – Okay, so I don't know off the top of my head which of these really sticks out.
C: Okay, so 1922, I'm really trying to like put myself in what was going on in 1922, like what did laboratories look like, what kinds of discoveries were happening to them, all from memory.
C: So basically insulin, hydrogen cyanide as a pesticide, which I know the least about.
S: You recognize the name Zyklon B?
C: I recognize Zyklon B.
C: I've definitely heard that name, but I know the least about like when that would have been or if that is – I don't think you would pull one over on us and like use a different formula.
C: This probably was discovered.
C: It probably was discovered by these guys or developed.
C: But like I don't know if it was 1922 or if it was like, I don't know, 1960.
C: Wait, 60.
C: And then Walter Sutton and Theodore Bovary independently developing the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, identifying chromosomes as the carriers of genetic material.
C: I feel like we knew that before then because I feel like Mendel was like in the mid-1800s, and I know that he didn't know about genes, but like it was like Darwin first was saying there's something that's being passed on and we don't really know what it is.
C: And then Mendel was like there are these discrete packets of information, like look, the bees are wrinkly, and now they're not, and now they're wrinkly again.
C: But like nobody knew what genes were, and I feel like Mendel was in the mid-1800s, so I feel like that would have happened sooner.
C: So I don't know.
C: That's the one that sticks out to me as being like a little bit off.
C: Like I think it's too late for the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, but I could be way off on the pesticide too.
C: But I'm going to put my nickel down on the chromosomes, the third one.
S: Okay. And Che.
J: Did you just pick the last one, Cara?
J: I did.
J: I did.
J: I'm going to go with Cara.
J: Any particular reason?
J: Statistically making the correct decision.
C: Based on – oh, this is terrible.
C: Don't base anything you do right now on anything that Steve read previously, like science or fiction.
C: And remember I'm sick, Jay.
C: I'm very sick.
J: But I'm sick too.
J: That's why it makes perfect sense.
J: Right.
J: Yes.
S: All right. Evan?
E: Frederick Banting and Charles Best.
E: Do all these have like multiple people associated with them?
E: It looks like they do.
E: Most scientific discoveries do.
E: At least two.
E: Okay.
E: Yeah, that's true.
E: Of course, of course.
E: Insulin, huh?
E: Who injected the first patient with insulin?
E: Would that have been 1922?
E: That could have been earlier maybe.
E: 14-year-old boy.
E: I don't know.
E: I know nothing about this.
E: 1922 though.
E: Why do I have a feeling though insulin was around earlier than that?
E: This would have been the first time a patient got injected with it?
E: It seems a little off.
E: The second one, Walter Heard and Bruno Tesch and others developed.
E: Oh, boy.
E: The pesticide and then Zyklon B, of course, the gas used in the concentration camps.
S: So not the 1960s.
S: Right.
C: Right.
C: Right.
C: So that's what I was missing.
E: 1922.
E: Shit.
E: Under the brand name Zyklon B.
E: I don't know about this one either.
E: Shit.
E: I cannot make that connection at all.
E: Gee whiz.
E: I don't know.
E: I don't know.
E: Steve, I don't know any of these.
E: And even the last one.
E: I don't know.
E: I mean, I wasn't alive.
E: Don't blame me.
E: Gosh.
E: I guess I'll be different just for the sake of being different.
E: I'll say the Walter Heard and Bruno Tesch, they may have developed something, maybe a pesticide or something, but I don't know if it was Zyklon B specifically.
E: I think theirs in there is the fiction part of it.
E: I don't know.
E: But that's what it is.
B: OK, Bob.
B: So among the rogues, I'm last, finally.
B: No, Jay hasn't gone.
B: Jay hasn't gone either.
B: Wait, Jay went.
B: Jay went.
B: Jay went.
B: Jay went.
B: So that brings me to a paltry 14.6% in the fourth position.
B: So I thought about thanking you for that, but I decided against it, Steve.
B: So I will say, let's see.
B: Yeah, 1922, insulin.
B: Yeah, it could be.
B: Hydrogen cyanide, 1922 as well.
B: That could be.
B: That seems like a reasonable time.
B: The third one, though, the chromosome theory, 1922, just seems too late to me.
B: So I mean, I would have thought, you know, late 1800s, certainly before 1922.
B: So that's why I'll say that's fiction.
S: OK, and Ian, you get to go last.
IC: Does this mean you think I know more about all these items than anyone else?
IC: Sugar.
S: If that makes you feel better.
IC: Given that I replaced all of Steve's dice with trick dice in the house, I'm going to say that it's number one.
IC: I don't know.
IC: You know what?
IC: I must be ignorant because I thought Zyklon B was like a planet or something sci-fi.
IC: You know what?
IC: I'm going to be different as well and be I'm going to go with number one and say that it's not insulin.
IC: All right.
C: Boy, look at that.
C: No sweep for Steve.
S: So do you think insulin is earlier or later than 22?
IC: I would say it's earlier.
S: All right.
S: So yeah, we're all spread out.
S: I like to see that.
S: Bob Jay and Cara think that the chromosome theory is too late.
S: Evan thinks that Zyklon B was not developed by these guys or something different.
S: And then Ian thinks that insulin was, did you say earlier or later?
IC: I mean, the only thing is that you still have to carry vials or you did for a while of insulin and shoot yourself up.
IC: So maybe it is later.
IC: It's just like so kind of archaic.
IC: You know, I'm going to say later.
C: Yeah.
C: Just wow.
C: Wasn't it produced from like rabbits?
S: Maybe.
S: I don't know.
S: Horse pancreases actually.
S: Oh, horse.
S: Oh, okay.
S: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
S: Here we go.
S: Well, I guess we'll take them in order since we're all spread out.
S: In 1922, physicians Frederick Banting and Charles Best of Toronto, Canada injected the first patient with insulin, a 14-year-old boy with type 1 diabetes who would have died without the treatment.
S: Ian, you think this one is the fiction.
S: Everyone else thinks this one is science.
S: And this one is science.
S: Sorry, Ian.
S: Yeah, 1922.
S: Yeah, so we knew about insulin before then, but they had to purify it.
S: And these are the, you know, other people did that.
S: And these are the first, you know, physicians to actually inject it into a human being.
S: It had been studied in animals beforehand.
S: And the first injection only worked temporarily.
S: This is, again, type 1 diabetes prior to this was a death sentence.
S: You go into a diabetic coma and you die.
S: That's it.
S: You're basically not making any insulin and you can't live without insulin.
S: So this 14-year-old boy was basically in a diabetic coma.
S: They injected him with insulin.
S: It brought his sugar down a little bit, not enough.
S: Then they gave him a second injection and he basically completely normalized his blood sugar and he came out of it.
S: So, you know, we now know that.
S: This is amazing.
S: You know, you're not going to take somebody out of a diabetic coma with one injection of diabetes.
S: Essentially, the insulin helps the sugar get into the cells.
S: So the cells, all your sugar is in the blood.
S: It's not getting into the cells.
S: And so you give them an injection of insulin.
S: And yes, some of that blood sugar is going to go into the cells, but they're starved.
S: So you know, you need to keep doing that until you renormalize things.
S: So typically we put people on an insulin drip and just keep giving it to them until we normalize.
S: We don't want to renormalize their blood sugar.
S: Yeah, so that...
S: Yeah, to give too much.
S: Then you tank their blood sugar and then that's the opposite problem.
S: That could kill them too.
S: Put them in that, get a seizure or something.
S: So then you just give them some—you just give them sugar, right?
S: The treatment for that is sugar.
C: Yeah, because—yeah, then it'll just use
B: it. Right.
B: If you need a treatment, I guess that's a
S: good treatment. Yeah, yeah.
S: Sugar!
S: So absolute revolution.
B: Absolute revolution.
B: Oh my God, that must have been so amazing.
S: And so at first, we were just purifying it from the pancreases of animals and mostly horses.
S: And then of course, later on, we developed recombinant insulin.
S: Basically, I think it's yeast.
S: We have yeast cranking out insulin.
S: That's sweet.
S: That was another revolution.
S: Yeah.
S: Okay, let's go on to number two.
S: In 1922, Walter Hurt and Bruno Tesch and others developed hydrogen cyanide as a pesticide under the brand name Zyklon B.
S: As Evan pointed out, Zyklon B was the—what was—that is the gas that was used in gas chambers in the concentration camps.
S: That's—that's why that name is famous.
S: But it was developed as a pesticide, right?
S: And it's Zyklon B because this was a revised version of Zyklon A. You know, they had—they just—they tweaked it and so it was the second iteration, Zyklon 2.0 as it were.
C: It's weird, Ian.
C: I didn't know that either.
C: Like I didn't make that connection at all and this is like—I feel like this is new.
C: I had heard the word but this feels like new information.
C: Jay and Bob, you guys knew that?
C: Knew what?
J: The Zyklon B was the— Zyklon B was the gas.
C: No, the Zyklon B was the gas.
C: Oh, yeah.
J: I mean, I learned it like several times in—in school.
J: I watched a lot of World War II stuff.
E: So interesting.
E: I mean, it comes up all the time.
E: I watched a lot of World War II stuff.
C: Yeah, I guess I don't watch a lot of World War II stuff but I'm also wondering if there's been a generational shift in like how much detail is given.
C: Maybe.
C: You know, when we learn about this kind of stuff in school that there's like a fear of getting too graphic or too detail-oriented with kids.
C: Yeah, I don't know.
C: Jay Which is a mistake, I think.
C: We're demonizing corporations.
E: I agree but— Jay In Hebrew school, we learned about this when I was seven years old.
E: Yeah, of course.
E: Jay Yeah, of course.
S: So the question is, is 20 years too big a gap?
S: You know, this is like 20 years before it would have been used.
S: So Evan, you think this one is the fiction.
S: Everyone else thinks this one is science.
S: And this one is science.
S: Sorry, Evan.
S: Yeah, so that was the delay.
S: It was developed 20 years before it started to get used in the concentration camps.
S: And now it's absolutely famous for that reason, not as a pesticide.
S: It was used for de-lousing too.
S: And interesting— Jay That's where the Holocaust deniers come in.
S: Yeah, that's what I was going to bring up.
S: The Holocaust deniers will say that the concentration of hydrogen cyanide on the walls of the gas chambers was, I think, like only 1% of what you would find in a de-lousing chamber.
S: And therefore, the implications, it was negligible and therefore not used to kill people.
S: But they leave out the fact that lice are much less susceptible to cyanide.
S: And it takes 100 times the concentration to kill lice as it does to kill people.
S: They always just leave that little fact out there and just create an implication of a conspiracy rather than providing all the facts that you could see.
S: It makes perfect sense.
S: They also will measure the amount on walls that are now exposed to the environment.
S: So yeah, it kind of washes away over decades.
S: But if you sample walls that are still intact on the inside, absolutely a lethal dose for humans.
S: OK, all of this means that in 1922, Walter Sutton and Theodore Bovary independently developed the Bovary-Sutton chromosome theory, identifying chromosomes as the carriers of genetic material.
S: Is the fiction?
S: Why is it the fiction?
S: Does everybody agree that it's because it actually happened earlier?
C: Earlier.
C: That's my guess, is earlier.
S: Then when do you think it happened?
S: What did Bob?
J: I bet you it's late 1800s makes sense.
J: Yeah, late 1800s.
IC: I'm going to say they didn't independently do it.
IC: They did it dependently.
C: I feel like you would have to change at least one other thing.
C: But yeah, I'd say late 1800s.
C: 1902.
S: It was 20 years earlier.
S: Close to the 1800s.
S: Yeah, so you were right.
S: It was too early.
S: Yeah, that was too late rather.
S: So but yeah, remember though that Mendel's work was forgotten and had to be rediscovered.
S: So there was a delay.
S: That's why it wasn't the middle of the 1800s.
S: But we didn't know.
S: We didn't know.
S: We knew that even when we knew conceptually that something like genes existed and was being passed on, the units of inheritance, we didn't know physically what was the substrate.
S: And then so then it was discovered, well, it's the chromosomes.
S: And for a long time, the thinking was that proteins were the substrate of inheritance, proteins until it was demonstrated that it was.
S: Not a bad guess.
S: Proteins are everywhere.
S: Yeah, nucleic acids.
S: Yeah, not a bad guess, but we didn't know, you know.
S: That just happened to be a wrong hypothesis.
S: And it was eventually proved that it was the DNA, which of course makes up the chromosomes.
S: Yeah.
E: And then the DNA denialists came along.
E: Yeah.
E: Said, no, it was proteins, damn it.
S: Right, right, right.
S: All right, so good job, guys.
J: Thank you, Steve.
J: Thank you.
IC: I got a chocastitis.
IC: I don't know.
IC: Something's wrong with him.
S: Yeah, yeah.
E: You and I will have to talk later.
S: Right.
S: There will be puns.
Skeptical Quote of the Week ()
(quoted text)
– (author of quote), (description of author)
S: Evan, give us the last quote of the year. Last quote of 2020.
E: The last quote of 2022 by another scientist who unfortunately we lost in 2022.
E: Here's what she said.
E: I always knew I wanted to be a doctor.
E: Unfortunately, my parents believed that girls should do as well as boys.
E: So off I set.
E: Audrey Evans, born March 6, 1925, died September 29, 2022.
E: Pediatric oncologist who is known as the mother of neuroblastoma.
E: Whoa, nice.
E: And one of the co-founders of Ronald McDonald House.
E: Now, she was known as the mother of neuroblastoma because of all the advances, research, and work that she did for this type of cancer.
E: After years of treating this type of cancer, she reduced the mortality rate caused by neuroblastoma by about 50% and currently the survival rate is above 85% thanks to her.
E: In fact, there is something called the Evans Staging System for Neuroblastoma.
E: It is named for her.
E: Awesome.
E: Sure it's not named after you?
E: Oh, yeah.
E: Well, of course.
E: Yes, asterisk.
E: I'm fond of that name.
J: Hey, Steve.
J: Yeah.
J: I think every year I say something about the hard work that you put in and how- He says work harder.
J: Without your leadership and persistent banging on the table to get us to do everything that we have to do to get this show done, it wouldn't get done.
J: I mean, by Steve's force of will, you know, like the spice.
J: He's like a mentat.
J: You make, you know, force of mind, whatever.
J: Remember that?
IC: Sure.
IC: Name that reference.
IC: Come on.
J: But I wanna thank you, Steve.
J: Do it.
J: I wanna thank you for taking me on this amazing journey which is the SGU.
J: It's like, you know, from the very beginning, I never thought in a million years that we would be what we are and be able to do the things that we do and I owe it all to you.
S: Thank you, brother.
S: It is a fun journey to take with all of you guys, with my family and friends, my close friends.
S: You guys are all family.
S: We're family.
E: I mean, let's face it.
E: We are family.
S: Yeah.
S: It is a family.
S: Yeah, I mean, this would be so– Spooky and spooky.
S: I could do this by myself, but why?
S: It wouldn't–it would be really boring.
S: You know what I mean?
S: The collaboration is fun, getting together is fun.
S: As I said, like this is like the funnest two, three hours of my week chatting with all you guys even though it's virtual.
S: It's still great to get together with everybody.
S: And what's more fun to talk about than science and critical thinking?
S: Oh, my gosh.
E: Seriously.
E: Absolutely.
B: Our voices will be on the internet until the post-apocalypse.
B: I have to tell an anecdote now about this.
S: So we were driving to the airport.
S: All the guys were in the car.
S: Well, no George, no Cara, but the guys from Connecticut were all in the car.
S: And we had a driver to take us to the last leg.
S: We wouldn't have to park at the airport.
S: And so we're just having a typical conversation, right?
S: We were chatting about what we were gonna be covering on the upcoming, you know, live shows that we were gonna do.
S: We were talking about Fusion.
S: We were talking about the chat GPT and a bunch of other stuff about Artemis, you know, all the good stuff.
S: And about 40-50 minutes into the ride, we're getting close to the airport.
S: The driver, do you know him personally, Ian?
S: I know you helped him with the ride.
IC: No.
IC: He's like a mutual.
S: He was just a random guy.
S: Yeah.
S: Yeah.
S: So he's just like, who are you guys?
S: He's like, I have to say–
B: I thought he said, what are you guys?
S: Oh, yeah. What are you guys?
S: This is the most interesting– No, he said who?
S: I think this is the most interesting conversation I've ever heard.
S: And he was just like fascinated by the whole thing.
S: Like, who the hell talks like that?
S: So we told him, yeah, well, we do this for a living, basically.
S: Like, we've been doing it for 17 years, having conversations like this and making it interesting.
S: And it was fun because we were just chatting.
S: Like, we weren't doing a show, but it was the same conversation.
S: You know what I mean?
S: Which I think has always been the strength of our show–
B: Yeah, for sure.
S: –is that it is like we're just having a chat among friends who are interested in science and critical thinking and that sort of thing.
S: And just cool sci-fi stuff.
IC: Yeah.
IC: Shout out to Tim.
IC: You'll hear this after you've been through several hundred episodes.
E: You'll eventually hear it.
E: He was a nice guy.
IC: And speaking of it, shout out to our patrons and listeners who keep this thing afloat.
E: You know?
E: Yes.
E: Hear, hear.
J: Yeah, our patrons have an awesome thing going on in Discord, by the way.
J: I mean, I keep talking to Sharon, who is one of the mods on Discord.
J: What a community.
J: The SGU has a vibrant, happy, and very discussion-heavy community going on.
J: And we really appreciate every single patron that we have out there on or off Discord.
J: I mean, we really couldn't do it without you guys.
J: It means the world to us that you believe in what we're doing enough to become a part of it in a sense.
J: I hope you have a wonderful holiday.
J: Happy New Year.
J: And to the rest of you guys, it is my honor to work with all of you.
J: Likewise.
S: It really is.
S: Yeah.
S: Likewise.
S: And I agree.
S: Yeah.
S: Again, this would be a pretty empty exercise if we weren't part of a bigger community, if there weren't people out there who were giving us feedback, sending us emails, being part of the discussion.
S: I think there's a lot of negative things you could say about social media and the impact it's had on the world.
S: But I think the one big positive thing is that it turns communication into a dialogue.
S: You know what I mean?
S: We're not just lecturing.
S: We're not talking at people.
S: We're having a dialogue and it's part of a broader discussion and dialogue, whether it's in the comments or on over email or on the Discord or on Facebook.
S: That's the best way to learn.
S: Yeah.
S: And we consume a lot of that.
S: We are taking all that feedback.
S: It's constantly being directed back into the show.
S: And that's, again, the other thing that has made this an awesome ride is just the community of critical thinkers and skeptics out there that we're interfacing with.
S: Really, really happy with the community that we've helped to build.
S: Hear, hear.
S: Roger that.
S: All right, guys.
S: Well, congratulations on another year.
S: We've basically completed 17 years of the SGE.
S: We're going into year 18.
S: Oh, my God.
S: Yes.
S: Oh, man.
S: Yeah.
S: Bring it.
S: Yeah, let's do it.
S: It is amazing.
S: We're two years away from our 1,000th episode.
S: Oh, my gosh.
S: 1,000?
E: Yeah.
E: Each part out, Joe Rogan.
B: Something special, like broadcast naked something.
B: I have one thing from the listeners for the
IC: year in review. They love Bob's innuendo, gird your loins.
IC: So maybe that'll do the merch.
IC: No, they don't.
IC: They're lying.
IC: Drop a little Gird Your Loins in Bob's face.
B: I have my finger on the pulse of awesomeness.
B: That would be a good T-shirt.
S: It would be around Gird Your Loins.
B: Gird Your Loins with the SGE.
J: No.
E: Cara gets a B-tool over that, I think.
S: It just means to tie up your tunic.
S: That's all it means, Cara.
C: Yeah, it's totally how Bob's using it.
E: I know.
B: Adjust your loin cloth.
B: It has so many meanings.
B: That's why I love it.
B: All right.
Signoff/Announcements ()
S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.
S: Well, thank you all for joining me this week and this year.
E: Yes, great year.
E: It's our pleasure.
E: Thank you.
S: And thank you for joining us, Ian.
S: And Ian, we have to recognize all of the hard work that you do.
S: I know it's mostly behind the scenes.
IC: I know you're going to cut this out.
IC: I know.
IC: It's fine.
S: I'm not going to cut it out.
S: I know you want to be the man behind the curtain, and you never want the spotlight to be focused on you.
S: I get it.
S: But here it is.
S: It's your deep professionalism, and I respect that.
S: But every now and then, we have to acknowledge all of the, not just the hard work that you do, but the real expertise that you bring to the technology.
S: And the all-around awesome tea-drinking guy
B: you are. Yeah.
E: Yeah, you're just fun to be with, too.
E: I love working with you, Ian.
J: I also love eating with you.
J: You're so much fun to have a meal with, man.
J: Thanks, guys.
S: And again, it's not just that, but you've become a really close friend.
S: Again, the people we end up working with, it's not just that they're working for us.
S: It's that they really become part of the family.
S: Yeah, they got the whole package.
S: Family.
S: Yeah, they're absolutely part of the family.
S: Because we have to, you know, we're goombas.
S: You know, we've got to work with family.
S: That's true.
S: That's what I'm about.
J: And while we're talking about Ian, we can't forget Kelly, who has been an intern, tempered for you for us.
E: Thank you, Kelly.
J: Kelly has taken on a lot of the stamina-based work that I do.
J: You know, she does a lot of social media.
J: She's been going through some emails.
J: And I just really appreciate her, and she is awesome.
J: She's helped us in a lot of ways.
J: Thank you for the baked goods, too.
E: They're delicious.
S: Thank you.
S: Since we're spreading the love, we also have to acknowledge one of our primary partners in crime, George Robb.
S: Oh, yes.
E: Yes.
S: Here, here.
S: George is also a great friend, again, somebody that we consider to be family that we met through skepticism.
S: He is the leader of our live events.
S: When we go on an event weekend where we do the extravaganza, you know, George completely runs that.
S: That is all him.
S: And he is, whenever we need anything like real creative, he's our go-to guy.
S: He's just such a funny, creative guy with a great skill set.
S: So he's been a fantastic addition to SGU activity.
J: I love working with George.
J: Yeah.
J: I love – Just love hanging out with him, too.
B: Oh, yeah.
J: Talking to George is so much fun.
J: I mean, I like the group dynamic that we have, and George adds a lot to it.
J: And I particularly love when we're doing the extravaganza and George is out front.
J: You know, we're sitting in the chairs behind him and I just always have this moment where I'm like, oh, my God, this guy is so funny.
J: I love working with him so much.
J: He makes me laugh, I think, more than anybody I know.
B: He's a funny bastard.
B: Holy crap.
B: He comes out with stuff.
B: We're like, holy crap, that was funny.
B: All right.
S: Well, thanks again, everyone.
S: All right, Steve.
S: This is it for real.
S: This is really it.
S: And until next week and next year, this is the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.
S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.
Today I Learned
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