SGU Episode 905

This episode was transcribed by the Google Web Speech API Demonstration (or another automatic method) and therefore will require careful proof-reading.

This transcript is not finished. Please help us finish it! Add a Transcribing template to the top of this transcript before you start so that we don't duplicate your efforts.

This episode needs: transcription, time stamps, formatting, links, 'Today I Learned' list, categories, segment redirects. Please help out by contributing!

How to Contribute

This is an outline for a typical episode's transcription. Not all of these segments feature in each episode.
There may also be additional/special segments not listed in this outline.

You can use this outline to help structure the transcription. Click "Edit" above to begin.

SGU Episode 905
November 12th 2022
Click for the gallery of uploaded files Add an appropriate caption here for the episode icon
SGU 904                      SGU 906
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
Quote of the Week
QUOTE
AUTHOR, _short_description_
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
[ https://sguforums.org/index.php?BOARD=1.0 Forum Discussion]

Introduction

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

00:09.000 --> 00:13.000 Hello and welcome to the Skeptic's Guide to the Universe.

00:13.000 --> 00:18.000 Today is Thursday, November 10th, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.

00:18.000 --> 00:20.000 Joining me this week are Bob Novella.

00:20.000 --> 00:21.000 Hey everybody.

00:21.000 --> 00:22.000 Kara Santamaria.

00:22.000 --> 00:23.000 Howdy.

00:23.000 --> 00:24.000 Jay Novella.

00:24.000 --> 00:25.000 Hey guys.

00:25.000 --> 00:26.000 And Evan Bernstein.

00:26.000 --> 00:27.000 Good evening, everyone.

00:27.000 --> 00:33.000 So Evan, you were recently at PsyCon, the CSI's annual conference.

00:33.000 --> 00:34.000 Isn't that right?

00:34.000 --> 00:35.000 Yes, I was.

00:35.000 --> 00:37.000 I wasn't there long.

00:37.000 --> 00:43.000 I happened to be in Las Vegas on the same weekend that my sister got married in Las

00:43.000 --> 00:44.000 Vegas.

00:44.000 --> 00:48.000 So you skipped the wedding and went to the conference?

00:48.000 --> 00:49.000 Almost.

00:49.000 --> 00:55.640 It was just across the street at the Hotel Flamingo where the CSI conference was happening,

00:55.640 --> 01:00.480 so I went over there for a few hours and saw some people, saw some faces I hadn't seen

01:00.480 --> 01:05.680 and oh my gosh, at least since the last time we were at CSI back in 2018 and even before

01:05.680 --> 01:06.680 that with some other people.

01:06.680 --> 01:07.680 Yeah, and the before time.

01:07.680 --> 01:08.680 Yeah, before the pandemic.

01:08.680 --> 01:09.680 And the before times.

01:09.680 --> 01:10.680 The pre.

01:10.680 --> 01:17.280 So in case anyone listening doesn't know, the CSI, the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry,

01:17.280 --> 01:18.280 used to be Psycop.

01:18.280 --> 01:21.760 They're the biggest national skeptical organization.

01:21.760 --> 01:28.840 They've been around since, I think, the mid-70s, 75, 76.

01:28.840 --> 01:33.880 They publish the Skeptical Inquirer, which is an excellent skeptical magazine.

01:33.880 --> 01:39.960 I get it every month, so one of the few things I enjoy reading cover to cover.

01:39.960 --> 01:47.320 Unfortunately, the editor of the Skeptical Inquirer, Kendrick Frazier, who we all know,

01:47.320 --> 01:49.640 somebody we would see at the conferences.

01:49.640 --> 01:51.360 He died two days ago.

01:51.360 --> 01:53.600 He was 80 years old.

01:53.600 --> 01:54.600 So good run.

01:54.600 --> 01:55.680 Apparently, he was sick.

01:55.680 --> 01:56.680 People knew.

01:56.680 --> 01:57.680 It wasn't like a surprise.

01:57.680 --> 02:02.600 It was known that he was, you know, that he was sick and was going to die soon.

02:02.600 --> 02:06.120 I got out, I think, two days before he passed away.

02:06.120 --> 02:09.820 I got an email from CSI letting us know, you know, what was going on.

02:09.820 --> 02:13.640 So yeah, it's always sad for, you know, a fellow skeptic to pass and he was, you know,

02:13.640 --> 02:18.560 basically dedicated majority of his adult life to promoting science and skepticism,

02:18.560 --> 02:21.140 you know, through his work through CSI.

02:21.140 --> 02:27.240 When we first went to, well, at least my experience, my first time going up to their facility in

02:27.240 --> 02:35.440 Buffalo was back in 1997 with you guys, and that was when I first met Kendrick then.

02:35.440 --> 02:40.780 And he then, as you said, Steve, sort of was a fixture of all the conferences that had

02:40.780 --> 02:41.780 taken place.

02:41.780 --> 02:44.740 He was one of the familiar faces there.

02:44.740 --> 02:47.360 You always saw him at these skeptic conferences.

02:47.360 --> 02:51.120 Yeah, there's a lot of characters in the skeptical movement, you know what I mean?

02:51.120 --> 02:55.440 Like there's a lot of people you meet that have strong personalities.

02:55.440 --> 03:00.960 And Kendrick was just like, as you say, just a fixture, just a real professional, just

03:00.960 --> 03:03.640 always there, just doing his job, you know, getting it done.

03:03.640 --> 03:04.640 You know what I mean?

03:04.640 --> 03:06.440 He's also always a super nice guy.

03:06.440 --> 03:07.440 Absolutely.

03:07.440 --> 03:10.600 A very no drama kind of executive kind of person.

03:10.600 --> 03:12.160 Yeah, even keel.

03:12.160 --> 03:14.960 And a big Los Angeles Dodgers fan, if I recall.

03:14.960 --> 03:20.400 He was, I remember at the last conference I saw him, this was back in 2018 when we were

03:20.400 --> 03:25.800 in Las Vegas, at the conference he was there and he was wearing a Dodgers jersey.

03:25.800 --> 03:30.320 And he was very happy and proud talking about his Dodgers who were, I believe, in the World

03:30.320 --> 03:32.600 Series, had just gotten to the World Series that year.

03:32.600 --> 03:38.200 And he was making plans, OK, I have to be here for this talk and I have to give a talk

03:38.200 --> 03:41.320 here, but then I'm going to sneak away and go see the baseball game for a while and then

03:41.320 --> 03:43.220 I'll be back.

03:43.220 --> 03:47.400 So he was apparently a very big baseball fan and loved his Dodgers.

03:47.400 --> 03:51.000 He was the author or editor on 10 different books.

03:51.000 --> 03:53.400 And I didn't know this, he was a fellow of the AAAS.

03:53.400 --> 03:57.960 Is he a scientist or just a science writer?

03:57.960 --> 04:01.520 More of a science writer than a practicing scientist, but he has a science education,

04:01.520 --> 04:02.520 yeah.

Dumbest Thing of the Week ()

• [link_URL TITLE]

04:02.520 --> 04:06.920 All right, so we're going to move on with our news items, but Evan, you're going to

04:06.920 --> 04:09.720 start us off with a Dumbest Thing of the Week.

04:09.720 --> 04:11.120 Yeah, Dumbest Thing of the Week.

04:11.120 --> 04:12.400 Do you want me to sing the song?

04:12.400 --> 04:13.400 No, not really.

04:13.400 --> 04:15.960 Kara, do you want me to sing the song?

04:15.960 --> 04:21.200 I'm going to say no also, I'm going to get in trouble.

04:21.200 --> 04:27.680 Then you know what, I'll not sing it this week, but if a listener writes us and says

04:27.680 --> 04:32.160 next time they want to hear it, it's going to happen, but I'll spare you, I'll spare

04:32.160 --> 04:35.400 you the enjoyment of me singing that song this week.

04:35.400 --> 04:36.400 Dumbest Thing of the Week.

04:36.400 --> 04:41.600 All right, Norway's Prince Louise, she is quitting her royal duties, it was announced

04:41.600 --> 04:42.600 a few days ago.

04:42.600 --> 04:44.520 Oh, she wants to have a really good reason.

04:44.520 --> 04:45.600 Oh, absolutely.

04:45.600 --> 04:50.600 She's going to devote all of her time to her true passion in life, alternative medicine.

04:50.600 --> 04:51.600 Oh, boy.

04:51.600 --> 04:52.600 What?

04:52.600 --> 04:53.600 Oh, yeah.

04:53.600 --> 04:54.600 What does that mean?

04:54.600 --> 04:59.880 Well, I will explain, and you know the definition of alternative medicine is anything that is

04:59.880 --> 05:06.160 not medicine, just so we're clear about that, but this is essentially almost a follow-up

05:06.160 --> 05:11.640 news item to one that I had talked about back in June of this year concerning Princess Louise.

05:11.640 --> 05:18.360 If you remember that her fiancé announced, and his name is Shaman Durek, that he had

05:18.360 --> 05:22.680 become engaged to the princess, Princess Louise of Norway.

05:22.680 --> 05:30.320 Shaman Durek, a sixth-generation shaman, author of the best-selling book, best-seller book,

05:30.320 --> 05:36.520 Spirit Hacking, Shamanic Keys to Reclaim Your Personal Power, Transform Yourself, and

05:36.520 --> 05:37.720 Light Up the World.

05:37.720 --> 05:42.600 Yes, the book in which he claims many things, including that childhood cancer is caused

05:42.600 --> 05:45.000 by unhappiness.

05:45.000 --> 05:49.120 Perhaps that will ring a bell as to the last news item I spoke about in regards to him.

05:49.120 --> 05:51.200 Let's blame the kids for their own cancer.

05:51.200 --> 05:52.200 That's a good idea.

05:52.200 --> 05:58.640 Yeah, that's a wonderful, wonderful scientifically-based philosophy that he espouses.

05:58.640 --> 06:00.640 And there are other gems in that book.

06:00.640 --> 06:03.580 Yeah, and the book got pulled from publishers.

06:03.580 --> 06:08.000 Many publishers in Europe realized, oh, this is bad, it's coming out.

06:08.000 --> 06:10.080 And Norway also pulled the book.

06:10.080 --> 06:11.880 They said, nope, sorry, not here.

06:11.880 --> 06:13.960 I think in America it stayed on the shelf.

06:13.960 --> 06:18.440 We have apparently a higher tolerance for dangerous health claims here in America than

06:18.440 --> 06:21.660 they do in Europe when it comes to these things.

06:21.660 --> 06:27.480 But Shaman Durek, he helps his victims, I mean clients, tap into their personal power

06:27.480 --> 06:31.640 and this is his words, while unblocking negative patterns that prevent them from reaching their

06:31.640 --> 06:33.600 optimal human performance.

06:33.600 --> 06:35.760 Does it get more gobbledygook than that?

06:35.760 --> 06:37.080 No, it does not.

06:37.080 --> 06:39.680 Now clearly he's beloved in Norway, apparently, right?

06:39.680 --> 06:42.320 Oh wait, the Wikipedia page about him, let's see.

06:42.320 --> 06:46.240 He advocates several conspiracy theories and has been characterized by Norwegian media

06:46.240 --> 06:48.580 and other critics as a con man.

06:48.580 --> 06:52.960 His only book was described by critics as nonsense, garbage, and dirty talk, and the

06:52.960 --> 06:54.680 ravings of a lunatic.

06:54.680 --> 06:58.300 But you know, he's actually a misunderstood soul.

06:58.300 --> 07:03.040 He addresses his critics and naysayers by comparing himself to the likes of Albert Einstein

07:03.040 --> 07:08.440 and Thomas Edison, claiming that they too were geniuses and simply misunderstood.

07:08.440 --> 07:11.960 Where have we heard that before?

07:11.960 --> 07:15.840 Now if all that background wasn't enough, he has the full endorsement and friendship

07:15.840 --> 07:18.360 of Gwyneth Paltrow and the Goop Parade.

07:18.360 --> 07:21.040 So that, I think, sums him up pretty well.

07:21.040 --> 07:25.800 So yeah, they're engaged, Princess Louise and the Shaman.

07:25.800 --> 07:31.360 But in this latest update, which came courtesy of the BBC, among other news outlets that

07:31.360 --> 07:36.060 picked it up, she has relinquished her royal duties, yes, she's going to focus on her

07:36.060 --> 07:41.160 alternative medicine business with the showman, I mean the Shaman.

07:41.160 --> 07:45.800 And Princess Louise, here's what she says, she's aware of the importance of research

07:45.800 --> 07:51.580 based knowledge, but she believes alternative medicine can be an important supplement to

07:51.580 --> 07:54.240 help the conventional medical establishment.

07:54.240 --> 08:00.880 Yeah, just like putting a little bit of manure on your ice cream supplements it and makes

08:00.880 --> 08:02.160 it better.

08:02.160 --> 08:04.680 And yeah, so we hear that before all the time.

08:04.680 --> 08:10.240 Oh, here's what else she says, a warm hand, an acupuncture needle, a crystal, natural

08:10.240 --> 08:15.960 remedies, yoga, meditation, or therapeutic conversation can, I believe, help to make

08:15.960 --> 08:18.320 life better for many individuals.

08:18.320 --> 08:20.480 You see what the pseudoscientists do?

08:20.480 --> 08:25.120 They blend the crazy ideas, you know, the acupuncture, the crystals, those natural

08:25.120 --> 08:32.040 remedies, with the non-crazy ideas, you know, meditation, yoga, conversation with therapists.

08:32.040 --> 08:36.560 You know, they couch themselves as being sort of these moderates, almost rationals, instead

08:36.560 --> 08:41.900 of just emphasizing the outright quackery agenda that they have.

08:41.900 --> 08:47.820 And they blend the two, they mix the two, it's a deception, is what it is.

08:47.820 --> 08:52.440 She also says, I also believe that there are components of a good life in sound physical

08:52.440 --> 08:57.760 and mental health that may not be so easy to sum up in a research report.

08:57.760 --> 09:02.560 Translation, scientific research and analysis is lacking and therefore any of the blanks

09:02.560 --> 09:08.280 that science can't answer means the answer lies in unfounded beliefs and ideas that are

09:08.280 --> 09:10.400 untethered to reality.

09:10.400 --> 09:13.000 Or I could ignore science whenever I want.

09:13.000 --> 09:16.080 Instead, go with what your gut is telling you in a way.

09:16.080 --> 09:21.960 The princess, yes, she's controversial and has been so for many decades.

09:21.960 --> 09:28.760 She started a school, this was back in 2007, to help people get in touch with their angels.

09:28.760 --> 09:33.760 And not in a metaphoric way, to get in touch with their angels.

09:33.760 --> 09:37.360 Angels exist and you can communicate with them.

09:37.360 --> 09:39.800 And she's been doing this ever since she was a child.

09:39.800 --> 09:44.200 And she's brought it with her, now she's I think in her 50s, so well into adulthood.

09:44.200 --> 09:48.400 She and a friend opened that school together back in 2007, the school has since closed

09:48.400 --> 09:49.400 in 2018.

09:49.400 --> 09:55.140 It didn't quite go I think as planned and had financial problems, she had to sell one

09:55.140 --> 09:58.080 of her houses in order to pay off the debts and so forth.

09:58.080 --> 10:00.000 So that went down.

10:00.000 --> 10:05.900 But there were some exposés and some things written about the school and they actually

10:05.900 --> 10:11.480 went into the school to do some, well to observe what exactly was going on.

10:11.480 --> 10:16.120 And they took some video about what was going on inside the classrooms there.

10:16.120 --> 10:22.620 And here's what they said, it mostly showed the princess and her friend, the other teacher,

10:22.620 --> 10:27.720 they would meditate with clients, trying to summon the spiritual energy needed to recognize

10:27.720 --> 10:30.440 and communicate with angels.

10:30.440 --> 10:31.440 That's it.

10:31.440 --> 10:32.440 That's all they did.

10:32.440 --> 10:37.880 They sat, I don't know, a seance, for lack of a better term, I don't know how else

10:37.880 --> 10:40.080 to really compare that.

10:40.080 --> 10:46.400 But hey, for $1,500 a class or a course, a semester, I have no idea, probably six classes,

10:46.400 --> 10:49.140 $1,500, that's what you would get.

10:49.140 --> 10:55.640 And yeah, you would use these angels to empower yourself and create miracles in your own life.

10:55.640 --> 10:59.600 These are all quotes right from their website, right from their literature.

10:59.600 --> 11:02.960 What is her business going to be, nobody really knows, time will tell.

11:02.960 --> 11:07.600 But based on her history and the history of her fiancé and the company that she keeps

11:07.600 --> 11:11.640 and the fact that her own family effectively cast her out because she's unpopular and

11:11.640 --> 11:17.540 detached from reality, I think we can safely assume that her foray into full-time pseudoscience

11:17.540 --> 11:21.440 will be, what, to be continued.

11:21.440 --> 11:22.440 We will find out.

11:22.440 --> 11:25.400 So this is, I have two minds on this story.

11:25.400 --> 11:30.880 One is that, you know, it always makes me sad to think of people dedicating their life

11:30.880 --> 11:31.880 to nonsense.

11:31.880 --> 11:32.880 You know what I mean?

11:32.880 --> 11:39.920 It's like, they're going to put so much time and energy into a fantasy that they think

11:39.920 --> 11:44.960 is real because they have bought into it, and it's just such a waste.

11:44.960 --> 11:50.220 But also, she seems to have been into this since she was a child, right, so this just

11:50.220 --> 11:54.320 may be her predisposition rather than being seduced by it.

11:54.320 --> 11:57.480 She sounds like she's like all in from the beginning.

11:57.480 --> 12:03.040 And she's made a choice here, Steve, a choice that so few people in life have, especially

12:03.040 --> 12:10.000 with someone of her exposure, her power, the wealth and the exposure that comes along with

12:10.000 --> 12:15.600 being part of a royal family and the good work that you could potentially be doing.

12:15.600 --> 12:20.940 And you're shunting that, you're throwing that away and that possibility in order to

12:20.940 --> 12:24.360 go down this specific route in life.

12:24.360 --> 12:25.360 That makes it worse.

12:25.360 --> 12:27.600 All right, thanks, Evan.

12:27.600 --> 12:28.600 There you go.

This Day in Skepticism ()

• _Event_

Forgotten Superheroes of Science ()

• _Person_People_Group_

"5 to 10 Years" ()

• [link_URL TITLE]

What's the Word? ()

• Word_Topic_Concept

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_

Your Number's Up ()

• _Number_Topic_Concept_

Quickie with Bob ()

• [link_URL TITLE]

News Items

S:

B:

C:

J:

E:

(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

Climate Change in the Classroom (mm:ss)

• [link_URL TITLE]

12:28.600 --> 12:35.000 We have a couple of climate-related news items this week, partly because, you know, it's

12:35.000 --> 12:40.760 COP 27, it's the big climate get-together, UN meeting in Egypt this year.

12:40.760 --> 12:44.900 And of course, there are the usual people whining about all of the attendees taking

12:44.900 --> 12:48.780 private jets there, which, you know, is a distraction.

12:48.780 --> 12:53.440 But there's a few things we could talk about, but Jay, you're going to start us off by

12:53.440 --> 12:57.920 talking about how climate change is taught in the classroom.

12:57.920 --> 13:04.320 In the past few years, the science and education standards in Texas were reviewed and updated.

13:04.320 --> 13:10.520 So these education standards, they outline what the students in each grade and each subject

13:10.520 --> 13:11.520 should learn.

13:11.520 --> 13:12.520 Right.

13:12.520 --> 13:17.200 This is like literally what are the children going to learn and in what grade are they?

13:17.200 --> 13:22.040 This was the first review of the education standards that proposed students learn about

13:22.040 --> 13:23.880 human-caused climate change.

13:23.880 --> 13:24.880 Imagine that.

13:24.880 --> 13:29.520 This is the first review period that they're actually going to put the question out there.

13:29.520 --> 13:31.680 Should we teach our kids about climate change?

13:31.680 --> 13:34.560 This seems like they're already behind the ball here.

13:34.560 --> 13:37.440 Texas happens to be a key player in this situation.

13:37.440 --> 13:39.120 So let me give you the background here.

13:39.120 --> 13:44.320 Since Texas is one of the biggest single textbook purchasers, when they decide what should and

13:44.320 --> 13:48.880 should not be taught to their students, the companies that make textbooks, you know, they

13:48.880 --> 13:52.160 commonly change their products to fit what Texas wants.

13:52.160 --> 13:54.680 That's how much buying power Texas has.

13:54.680 --> 13:58.400 Then those books get sold all across the United States.

13:58.400 --> 14:03.520 In a 2020 review of science standards of all 50 states in the US, when looking at how well

14:03.520 --> 14:09.200 climate change was represented in their curriculum, most states got an A or B. Texas got an F.

14:09.200 --> 14:16.160 In 2019, NPR did a poll where four out of five people in the United States think that

14:16.160 --> 14:19.180 school children should be educated about climate change.

14:19.180 --> 14:22.480 So clearly, you know, these two things don't line up.

14:22.480 --> 14:27.840 The last time the Texas board reviewed and updated the Texas essential knowledge and

14:27.840 --> 14:33.920 skills, this is called TEKS, this was in regards to science.

14:33.920 --> 14:35.560 This happened back in 2009.

14:35.560 --> 14:39.640 Now, during that cycle of review, the board argued about evolution.

14:39.640 --> 14:43.320 They were really trying to figure out like how they want to present evolution to the

14:43.320 --> 14:45.240 children in Texas.

14:45.240 --> 14:49.520 And they also decided that high school students should hear both sides of the argument about

14:49.520 --> 14:52.360 whether or not global warming is happening.

14:52.360 --> 14:54.480 This was in 2009.

14:54.480 --> 15:00.440 Back in 2019, when it was again time to review and update the Texas essential knowledge and

15:00.440 --> 15:06.840 skills, the heavily debated topic at this point was finally climate science.

15:06.840 --> 15:09.640 This was the number one thing that was being debated.

15:09.640 --> 15:12.220 The board had three different curricula to consider.

15:12.220 --> 15:18.080 So they had high school core sciences, high school elective sciences, and then K-8, which

15:18.080 --> 15:20.200 is all the other grades.

15:20.200 --> 15:25.200 The board brought in 85 volunteers and some of them, you know, they were professionals.

15:25.200 --> 15:30.120 They were content advisors who could give the board suggestions on what should be changed.

15:30.120 --> 15:35.160 And those who worked on the high school core science standards initially did not include

15:35.160 --> 15:39.920 any reference to the science of modern climate change, remarkably.

15:39.920 --> 15:44.600 During the process of deciding on what will end up in the curriculum, the board had a

15:44.600 --> 15:45.600 public meeting, right?

15:45.600 --> 15:48.840 They, you know, they opened it up and they let everybody and anybody who wants to comment

15:48.840 --> 15:51.000 about it chime in.

15:51.000 --> 15:57.300 And 30 people raised the topic of how climate change should be included in these core classes.

15:57.300 --> 16:02.080 This came from parents and teachers and other people involved in education.

16:02.080 --> 16:06.360 So also in that same meeting, a man named Robert Unger gave his opinion.

16:06.360 --> 16:10.000 He, however, was a representative for the Texas Energy Council.

16:10.000 --> 16:11.520 Guess where this is going?

16:11.520 --> 16:15.460 He's an engineer from Dallas and he, oh, you know, just happened to be someone who worked

16:15.460 --> 16:19.000 for the oil and gas industry for over 45 years.

16:19.000 --> 16:24.640 So that you have a clear understanding of who this man was representing.

16:24.640 --> 16:31.200 He was representing the Texas Energy Council and that is a league of 35 oil and gas industry

16:31.200 --> 16:32.560 organizations.

16:32.560 --> 16:34.600 They have over 5,000 members.

16:34.600 --> 16:39.920 The Texas Energy Council had recruited 17 experts with varying backgrounds.

16:39.920 --> 16:44.520 And all of these people agreed that oil and gas should be portrayed in a balanced way.

16:44.520 --> 16:46.920 I don't know what the hell that means.

16:46.920 --> 16:48.620 You know, they just want it to be vague.

16:48.620 --> 16:53.840 This is a nice way of saying the way I read it, that they don't want oil and gas industries

16:53.840 --> 16:59.180 to be represented in a negative light due to their direct involvement in climate change.

16:59.180 --> 17:05.760 So their goal, this is taken from their, essentially taken from their website when you read between

17:05.760 --> 17:06.760 the lines.

17:06.760 --> 17:11.220 Their goal is to downplay the seriousness of climate change, to pass on the blame to

17:11.220 --> 17:19.320 other industries and countries, and most reprehensibly, and to delay actions that would mitigate climate

17:19.320 --> 17:20.320 change.

17:20.320 --> 17:21.320 How about that?

17:21.320 --> 17:22.620 That's what these people are about.

17:22.620 --> 17:27.760 So Unger suggested to the board that they remove any mention of social justice and ethics

17:27.760 --> 17:29.880 in these science classes.

17:29.880 --> 17:33.680 He proposed that they include a cost-benefit analysis.

17:33.680 --> 17:35.520 This is what, this is the way that he wanted this.

17:35.520 --> 17:36.520 Oh yeah?

17:36.520 --> 17:37.520 Yeah.

17:37.520 --> 17:38.520 Wait, wait until I read this.

17:38.520 --> 17:39.520 Yeah, let's go down that road.

17:39.520 --> 17:40.520 I mean.

17:40.520 --> 17:44.540 I know this is not going to end well for him if we do a cost-benefit analysis.

17:44.540 --> 17:50.160 So he goes on to explain how solar and wind also have negative aspects and that all energy

17:50.160 --> 17:54.560 sources should be looked at from a cost-benefit perspective.

17:54.560 --> 17:56.860 This of course is goddamn absurd, right?

17:56.860 --> 17:58.800 It's a false equivalence.

17:58.800 --> 18:02.800 Wind and solar produce a fraction of the greenhouse gases that gas and oil do.

18:02.800 --> 18:04.600 I mean, a fraction.

18:04.600 --> 18:08.680 Comparing negative aspects of oil, gas, wind, and solar is a complete waste of time.

18:08.680 --> 18:13.200 And it most certainly is not the conversation and not what we want students focusing on.

18:13.200 --> 18:16.760 Oh, let's do a cost analysis of these different sources of energy.

18:16.760 --> 18:17.760 Yeah, sure.

18:17.760 --> 18:21.280 Well, Jay, I'll push back on that, let me push back on that.

18:21.280 --> 18:25.800 I think that's fine as long as you do it accurately, right?

18:25.800 --> 18:32.880 If you did a full cost-benefit analysis, including the externalized costs of climate change.

18:32.880 --> 18:33.880 That's the key.

18:33.880 --> 18:40.040 Wind and solar come out way on top, you know, as well as, you know, geothermal, hydroelectric

18:40.040 --> 18:43.480 and nuclear, anything that's low carbon.

18:43.480 --> 18:49.040 And the massive carbon-emitting energies are, you know, just because of health care costs

18:49.040 --> 18:50.520 on the one side and the other.

18:50.520 --> 18:54.000 Steve, you're talking, but you're going into detail that they don't want and that they've

18:54.000 --> 18:57.120 clearly represented that they don't want those kinds of details.

18:57.120 --> 19:02.640 They don't want them to, they don't want the students to be talking about explicitly understanding

19:02.640 --> 19:03.840 what the root cause is.

19:03.840 --> 19:05.960 They want, this is their whitewash.

19:05.960 --> 19:07.400 Oh, I know.

19:07.400 --> 19:12.100 But you can call them out, rather than saying, we don't want to talk cost versus cost-benefit

19:12.100 --> 19:15.680 analysis, you say, all right, we'll do, here's the cost-benefit analysis.

19:15.680 --> 19:17.600 I mean, these things have been published.

19:17.600 --> 19:21.720 Yeah, but I'm sure that they have a handy-dandy curriculum for that.

19:21.720 --> 19:22.720 Yeah.

19:22.720 --> 19:23.720 Well, that's the problem.

19:23.720 --> 19:26.880 You can't let the industry write the science curriculum.

19:26.880 --> 19:32.000 How about we just talk about the actual facts as scientists understand that?

19:32.000 --> 19:37.680 Well, but Steve, not only did this guy who was representing these oil and gas companies,

19:37.680 --> 19:42.740 not only did he not specifically want what you say, but there are people that were sitting

19:42.740 --> 19:43.740 on the board.

19:43.740 --> 19:49.320 Like the next day, the board met and they were considering, you know, all the talkback

19:49.320 --> 19:55.460 that they heard, and one of the people on the board proposed that they do what this

19:55.460 --> 19:56.460 guy said.

19:56.460 --> 19:57.460 You know what I mean?

19:57.460 --> 20:03.080 Like, yeah, let's do the cost-benefit analysis, aka let's whitewash this thing and make it

20:03.080 --> 20:04.440 sound benign.

20:04.440 --> 20:09.320 Fossil fuel industry professionals, you know, these people took an active part in each stage

20:09.320 --> 20:12.120 of the Texas science standards review process.

20:12.120 --> 20:16.240 Every single time that there was any way that they could say what they wanted to say and

20:16.240 --> 20:18.240 skew things, they did.

20:18.240 --> 20:22.600 Any time it was open to the public, they successfully influenced the curriculum of all age ranges

20:22.600 --> 20:23.600 in Texas.

20:23.600 --> 20:26.560 And they did all this during the public hearings that I told you about.

20:26.560 --> 20:30.400 Now other things they argued for was like, there's just a couple more examples and just

20:30.400 --> 20:32.960 so you know, this story keeps going.

20:32.960 --> 20:37.680 I'm just telling you like the basic backbone of it, but there is so many details in here

20:37.680 --> 20:41.280 of all the things that they did and all the language that they want to change and all

20:41.280 --> 20:42.320 this stuff.

20:42.320 --> 20:44.080 But here's a good example.

20:44.080 --> 20:48.400 They didn't want the words renewable or nonrenewable used.

20:48.400 --> 20:53.420 Instead, they wanted the curriculum to use the term natural resources.

20:53.420 --> 21:02.500 So everything, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and oil and gas, these are all natural resources.

21:02.500 --> 21:06.320 It's astounding when you read it and you see it in black and white.

21:06.320 --> 21:09.000 It's so crystal goddamn clear what they're trying to do.

21:09.000 --> 21:11.360 I mean, anybody that works for oil and gas.

21:11.360 --> 21:14.760 Yeah, I mean, it is absolutely, Steve, you hit the nail on the head.

21:14.760 --> 21:16.000 It's double plus good.

21:16.000 --> 21:20.960 So you add the first thing that I said, where Texas has a massive influence on all of the

21:20.960 --> 21:26.440 textbooks that happen in the United States, massive influence, then their curricula is

21:26.440 --> 21:31.760 profoundly altered by these people who are essentially lobbyists.

21:31.760 --> 21:35.520 If you think about it, they're acting just like lobbyists, special interest groups who

21:35.520 --> 21:40.520 want certain things handled in certain ways in classroom textbooks.

21:40.520 --> 21:43.120 So their industry won't get hurt.

21:43.120 --> 21:44.120 It's disgusting.

21:44.120 --> 21:45.680 How do we let this happen?

21:45.680 --> 21:46.680 You look at it-

21:46.680 --> 21:47.680 It's also brilliant, right?

21:47.680 --> 21:48.680 Get them while they're young.

21:48.680 --> 21:49.680 Of course, man.

21:49.680 --> 21:50.680 Of course.

21:50.680 --> 21:53.320 But it doesn't just affect Texas, it affects the whole country.

21:53.320 --> 21:58.920 And this is why we need skeptical activists everywhere.

21:58.920 --> 22:05.000 Because at some town meeting, and just so you understand, this wasn't like tens of thousands

22:05.000 --> 22:08.160 of people in this huge consortium.

22:08.160 --> 22:12.840 This conversation and these decisions were being made in a relatively small venue in

22:12.840 --> 22:13.840 a town in Texas.

22:13.840 --> 22:19.520 Yeah, that's why I really think that we need to protect that process of determining the

22:19.520 --> 22:21.200 curriculum and the textbooks and whatever.

22:21.200 --> 22:29.280 It really should be done by, you know, scientists should be determining what is science in terms

22:29.280 --> 22:30.280 of what gets taught.

22:30.280 --> 22:31.280 Yeah.

22:31.280 --> 22:33.160 I mean, it sounds obvious.

22:33.160 --> 22:39.220 And educators should be deciding like what is an age appropriate educational level.

22:39.220 --> 22:40.220 And it's okay.

22:40.220 --> 22:45.520 I mean, obviously, I'm not against parents having input, because parents should absolutely

22:45.520 --> 22:49.640 have supervision and input into what their kids are taught.

22:49.640 --> 22:54.240 But there's got to be standards, it can't just be like anybody with an objection gets

22:54.240 --> 22:57.800 to interfere with the entire educational system, you know.

22:57.800 --> 22:59.440 It's a minority rule again.

22:59.440 --> 23:00.440 Yeah, right.

23:00.440 --> 23:03.280 It's the tyranny of the vocal minority, basically.

23:03.280 --> 23:04.280 All right.

23:04.280 --> 23:05.760 Well, we're not going to fix this problem.

23:05.760 --> 23:08.560 But this is something we definitely have to keep our eye on.

Ad ()

23:08.560 --> 23:12.320 Well, everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about one of our

23:12.320 --> 23:15.520 sponsors this week, BetterHelp.

23:15.520 --> 23:19.980 Navigating any of life's challenges can make you feel unsure whether it's a career change

23:19.980 --> 23:22.840 or a new relationship or becoming a parent.

23:22.840 --> 23:26.620 But therapists are trained to help you figure out the cause of challenging emotions and

23:26.620 --> 23:32.040 learn productive coping skills, which makes therapy the closest thing to a guided tour

23:32.040 --> 23:35.440 of the complex engine, which is you in your life.

23:35.440 --> 23:36.440 It's true, take it from me.

23:36.440 --> 23:37.440 I am a therapist.

23:37.440 --> 23:40.800 And of course, I go to therapy as well.

23:40.800 --> 23:43.140 And it takes all types.

23:43.140 --> 23:46.540 You don't have to have a qualifying diagnosis.

23:46.540 --> 23:50.760 You can see a therapist because you're dealing with an adjustment in your life.

23:50.760 --> 23:52.940 Everybody can benefit from therapy.

23:52.940 --> 23:58.460 As the world's largest therapy service, BetterHelp has matched three million people with professionally

23:58.460 --> 24:02.720 licensed and vetted therapists available 100 percent online.

24:02.720 --> 24:04.900 Plus, it's affordable.

24:04.900 --> 24:08.040 Just fill out a brief questionnaire to match with a therapist.

24:08.040 --> 24:11.520 If things aren't clicking, you can easily switch to a new therapist anytime.

24:11.520 --> 24:12.900 It couldn't be simpler.

24:12.900 --> 24:16.960 No waiting rooms, no traffic, no endless searching for the right therapist.

24:16.960 --> 24:22.360 Learn more and save 10 percent off your first month at BetterHelp.com slash SGU.

24:22.360 --> 24:26.320 That's BetterHelp, H-E-L-P, dot com slash S-G-U.

24:26.320 --> 24:27.320 All right, guys.

24:27.320 --> 24:28.320 Let's get back to the show.

Effects of Climate in US ()

• [link_URL TITLE]

24:28.320 --> 24:35.200 Kara, so you're going to give us an update on how global warming is doing in the U.S.

24:35.200 --> 24:40.800 Basically, Jay, as I'm listening to you talking about these great lengths that these lobbyists

24:40.800 --> 24:48.840 are going to to, as Steve mentioned, double plus good our climate education for kiddos,

24:48.840 --> 24:56.320 it's super scary because a report was just released, a draft report that really shows

24:56.320 --> 24:59.160 just how dire things are.

24:59.160 --> 25:03.220 Probably one of the most dire reports I've come across thus far.

25:03.220 --> 25:07.040 So there's something called the National Climate Assessment.

25:07.040 --> 25:13.720 We're in the fifth version of it right now, and you can read about it at GlobalChange.gov.

25:13.720 --> 25:17.480 The National Climate Assessment is federally mandated.

25:17.480 --> 25:24.120 It's basically what the U.S. government is contributing to climate knowledge.

25:24.120 --> 25:30.640 And the final report is slated to be published late next year in 2023.

25:30.640 --> 25:35.080 It was actually pushed back because while Trump was in office, he tried to squash the

25:35.080 --> 25:36.960 entire project.

25:36.960 --> 25:38.360 But we did not let that happen.

25:38.360 --> 25:40.280 It just ended up getting pushed back.

25:40.280 --> 25:45.080 So it's coming out in 2023, but they release a draft report early so that it can be peer

25:45.080 --> 25:48.840 reviewed and so that individuals can comment publicly.

25:48.840 --> 25:50.560 So the draft report was released.

25:50.560 --> 25:53.520 It's 1,695 pages.

25:53.520 --> 25:55.000 I did not read it all.

25:55.000 --> 25:56.000 I know.

25:56.000 --> 25:57.000 I'm very sorry.

25:57.000 --> 25:58.000 It just came out on Monday.

25:58.000 --> 26:06.520 I don't know if I could possibly read that many pages in four days, even if I didn't

26:06.520 --> 26:09.520 have a full time job and a dissertation and work on two podcasts.

26:09.520 --> 26:12.760 And oh, yeah, by the way, I'm in the middle of a hurricane right now.

26:12.760 --> 26:13.760 Did you know?

26:13.760 --> 26:14.760 Did you know?

26:14.760 --> 26:15.760 Yeah.

26:15.760 --> 26:17.960 I'm connected to the guys on my phone because I don't have Wi-Fi.

26:17.960 --> 26:18.960 It's ridiculous.

26:18.960 --> 26:23.280 All this special pleading, oh my goodness.

26:23.280 --> 26:28.880 So looking at the National Climate Assessment, it's not good.

26:28.880 --> 26:34.240 Basically there are some big takeaways, but I wanted to point to one thing that a lot

26:34.240 --> 26:39.640 of people are reporting on, which is first the price tag.

26:39.640 --> 26:42.440 I mean, you mentioned the cost benefit analysis.

26:42.440 --> 26:45.000 What about just the cost of climate change?

26:45.000 --> 26:46.720 Yeah, it's going to be trillions.

26:46.720 --> 26:47.720 Oh my gosh.

26:47.720 --> 26:48.720 Okay.

26:48.720 --> 26:55.520 So historically we were averaging eight $1 billion, and I don't mean historically like

26:55.520 --> 26:56.520 a long time ago.

26:56.520 --> 26:58.640 I just mean like a decade ago.

26:58.640 --> 27:03.880 We were averaging eight $1 billion weather events every year.

27:03.880 --> 27:05.760 That's already really bad, right?

27:05.760 --> 27:08.720 Wait, wait, let me add this up.

27:08.720 --> 27:09.720 That's $8 billion.

27:09.720 --> 27:10.720 That's $8 billion.

27:10.720 --> 27:11.720 Yeah.

27:11.720 --> 27:13.440 In the last two years, we've had 80.

27:13.440 --> 27:20.880 So we're averaging a $1 billion weather disaster every three weeks in the United States.

27:20.880 --> 27:22.920 Is that because of inflation or?

27:22.920 --> 27:23.920 No.

27:23.920 --> 27:27.060 I'm pretty sure that's adjusted for inflation.

27:27.060 --> 27:30.400 Another big thing that's kind of just like drives us home, and then we'll get into some

27:30.400 --> 27:37.880 of the brass tacks and the nitty gritty, is that the US is actually experiencing warming

27:37.880 --> 27:44.280 68% faster than the rest of the world average.

27:44.280 --> 27:45.280 We're not-

27:45.280 --> 27:50.600 We had the warmest October that I remember, and November 5th was 70 degrees in Connecticut.

27:50.600 --> 27:51.600 That's nuts.

27:51.600 --> 27:53.240 Like I said, I'm in a hurricane right now.

27:53.240 --> 27:55.680 Hurricanes don't usually happen on November 10th.

27:55.680 --> 27:58.600 The hurricane season is usually over by now.

27:58.600 --> 27:59.880 By October, yeah.

27:59.880 --> 28:00.880 Yeah.

28:00.880 --> 28:08.640 So we're looking at the average temperature in the continental 48 being 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit,

28:08.640 --> 28:15.560 which is 1.4 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial averages, when the global average temperature

28:15.560 --> 28:19.480 is 1 degree Celsius over pre-industrial averages.

28:19.480 --> 28:24.840 Now this is to be expected because land warms faster than water.

28:24.840 --> 28:29.360 So land area is faster than the ocean, and also higher latitudes warm faster than lower

28:29.360 --> 28:30.360 latitudes.

28:30.360 --> 28:34.640 So you see this in other parts of the world as well.

28:34.640 --> 28:39.240 But when we're talking about these global averages, we tend to talk about them in terms

28:39.240 --> 28:40.240 of a global average.

28:40.240 --> 28:42.020 Well, that's not the case here.

28:42.020 --> 28:43.760 We're not looking at 1 degree Celsius right now.

28:43.760 --> 28:46.320 We're looking at 1.4 degrees Celsius right now.

28:46.320 --> 28:54.300 We're seeing so much bad stuff happening as a result of this runaway warming.

28:54.300 --> 28:58.160 So let's look at some of the highlights of this report.

28:58.160 --> 29:03.420 The first one is that obviously the way that climate change is affecting us here in the

29:03.420 --> 29:06.580 US is different depending on where you live.

29:06.580 --> 29:13.840 And we kind of already know this, but we're seeing terrible wildfires in the West.

29:13.840 --> 29:19.840 We are seeing terrible storm systems in both the Northeast and the Southeast.

29:19.840 --> 29:24.140 We're seeing terrible heat waves across most of the Midwest.

29:24.140 --> 29:28.840 And one thing that this report does, which is the exact opposite, Jay, of what they're

29:28.840 --> 29:35.080 trying to do in these Texas textbooks, is that they continuously bring it back to who

29:35.080 --> 29:38.640 is the most at risk, who is getting harmed by this.

29:38.640 --> 29:45.160 And we know that communities that are already overburdened, so we're talking people of color,

29:45.160 --> 29:50.900 low income communities, indigenous people, these are the places where they're feeling

29:50.900 --> 29:52.040 it the worst.

29:52.040 --> 30:00.520 It's that really terrible irony that the people causing the most destruction are the most

30:00.520 --> 30:02.280 protected from it.

30:02.280 --> 30:07.140 The people that are doing the least to contribute to global climate change are the most vulnerable

30:07.140 --> 30:08.140 to it.

30:08.140 --> 30:09.840 They're really getting hurt.

30:09.840 --> 30:12.880 And if you are sitting there saying, I don't really notice a difference, I don't really

30:12.880 --> 30:16.120 feel this, I've been lucky, it's because of your privilege.

30:16.120 --> 30:17.200 You have been lucky.

30:17.200 --> 30:19.240 A lot of people aren't so lucky.

30:19.240 --> 30:23.520 One thing that we never think about here in the US is water.

30:23.520 --> 30:24.780 Water is free.

30:24.780 --> 30:26.680 You just open the tap.

30:26.680 --> 30:31.680 People don't think about the fact that water is actually a precious resource and it's being

30:31.680 --> 30:32.680 threatened.

30:32.680 --> 30:40.000 So when we have extreme rainfall, extreme flooding, that equates to less clean drinking

30:40.000 --> 30:41.000 water.

30:41.000 --> 30:42.000 Just straight up.

30:42.000 --> 30:46.320 We're seeing that salt water, because the seas are rising, we're having these horrible

30:46.320 --> 30:51.840 storm surges and aquifers are getting polluted with salt water, which means then we have

30:51.840 --> 30:53.000 to desalinate.

30:53.000 --> 30:54.700 We can't drink salt water.

30:54.700 --> 30:59.080 So if salt water is getting into our aquifers, if it's getting into our wells, if it's getting

30:59.080 --> 31:04.320 into areas where we usually hold fresh water, all that fresh water is now poisoned, quote

31:04.320 --> 31:05.320 unquote.

31:05.320 --> 31:07.720 We have to desalinate it to make it drinkable again.

31:07.720 --> 31:15.240 We're seeing that floods are taking basically toxins and flooding them into our wells and

31:15.240 --> 31:16.920 into our water table.

31:16.920 --> 31:20.480 So we're not able to drink the water that we should be able to drink.

31:20.480 --> 31:26.400 And we're also seeing that there are a lot of algal blooms that are existing at a higher

31:26.400 --> 31:29.100 rate than they ever did in the past.

31:29.100 --> 31:33.560 Just because there's more water in certain places, more water doesn't necessarily mean

31:33.560 --> 31:34.920 better.

31:34.920 --> 31:39.200 And then of course we know the opposite side of that problem, which is, I mean I know this

31:39.200 --> 31:44.760 very well being an LA person, like drought is real.

31:44.760 --> 31:45.760 It's real.

31:45.760 --> 31:50.560 We are running out of water in a lot of the places like these huge reservoirs that used

31:50.560 --> 31:53.640 to be full just aren't and they're devastating images.

31:53.640 --> 31:58.180 I mean just literally go online and look at before and after images.

31:58.180 --> 32:01.880 You can see where the water level used to be for like decades and decades and decades

32:01.880 --> 32:04.960 and then it's just receded, receded, receded.

32:04.960 --> 32:11.460 We know that there, I mean this is the, this point about kind of extreme events causing

32:11.460 --> 32:14.040 a lot of damage to homes and property.

32:14.040 --> 32:18.480 We kind of already touched on that with the increase in billion dollar events.

32:18.480 --> 32:29.720 In 2021 there were $20 billion plus events that collectively ended up costing $145 billion

32:29.720 --> 32:33.780 and killed almost 700 people just in the US.

32:33.780 --> 32:39.240 So another way to conceptualize that statistic that I gave you before, the US experienced

32:39.240 --> 32:47.040 $7.7 billion disasters, so $7.71 billion disasters annually over the past four decades, but in

32:47.040 --> 32:51.800 the past five years now it's 18 events each year.

32:51.800 --> 32:55.360 So that translates to once every three weeks, like I mentioned.

32:55.360 --> 32:57.760 And again, this doesn't hit everybody equally.

32:57.760 --> 33:01.960 Obviously poorer neighborhoods, neighborhoods with less are getting hit harder, neighborhoods

33:01.960 --> 33:07.160 who are less likely to rebuild as it is and less likely to mitigate these effects, right?

33:07.160 --> 33:10.800 This is an important one that I think we don't talk about enough, which is climate migration

33:10.800 --> 33:15.760 and climate displacement because I think we think of this as something that happens elsewhere

33:15.760 --> 33:22.160 in the world, but it's happening here, it's happening now and it's only going to get worse.

33:22.160 --> 33:25.440 So we've seen it like with Hurricane Maria really recently.

33:25.440 --> 33:30.300 I mean every major hurricane we see that there's a terrible displacement and migration because

33:30.300 --> 33:32.140 people lose their homes.

33:32.140 --> 33:34.380 They don't have a place to live anymore.

33:34.380 --> 33:36.640 And the sad thing is there's nowhere for them to go.

33:36.640 --> 33:39.420 The housing market is bananas right now.

33:39.420 --> 33:42.560 Interest rates are bananas because of inflation.

33:42.560 --> 33:46.860 Post COVID there's some real difficulty and instability in the job market.

33:46.860 --> 33:48.160 It's scary.

33:48.160 --> 33:55.440 It's really scary that people who have long felt like they built a life for themselves,

33:55.440 --> 33:59.780 a stable life for themselves are being forced out of where they live.

33:59.780 --> 34:02.780 And obviously who's going to carry that burden?

34:02.780 --> 34:04.660 We have to have government intervention.

34:04.660 --> 34:10.200 We have to be able as a community to take care of individuals and we're not doing a

34:10.200 --> 34:17.380 great job of that, but ultimately massive explosions in homelessness is devastating

34:17.380 --> 34:22.080 for the people who are displaced, but it's also devastating for the economy.

34:22.080 --> 34:25.240 Obviously this is also a growing public health threat and this is like another one of those

34:25.240 --> 34:30.740 externalized costs that you mentioned before, Steve, higher rates of rabies, higher rates

34:30.740 --> 34:36.060 of Lyme disease, higher rates of dengue, higher rates of Zika, higher rates of chikungunya.

34:36.060 --> 34:42.960 And that's just because of mosquitoes and different kind of ecological, different organisms

34:42.960 --> 34:47.860 that used to live in certain ecological niches moving to areas where they never lived before

34:47.860 --> 34:54.000 or exploding in population because of the changes in their evolutionary pressure.

34:54.000 --> 35:00.020 You add to that wildfire smoke, you add to that certain agricultural toxins and things

35:00.020 --> 35:02.460 like that being run off into the water.

35:02.460 --> 35:05.980 It's scary how much of a public health risk climate change is.

35:05.980 --> 35:07.820 People get sick because of climate change.

35:07.820 --> 35:10.100 There are a lot of downstream effects.

35:10.100 --> 35:13.220 And one thing that we don't often think about is it's not just us, right?

35:13.220 --> 35:19.600 Like we are not the only organisms who are negatively affected and really the canary

35:19.600 --> 35:23.300 has been in the coal mine for a long time and we've refused to look at it.

35:23.300 --> 35:29.700 A lot of amphibian species, bird species, fish species, plant species are either being

35:29.700 --> 35:36.360 completely driven out of their native range to sort of like higher latitudes or they're

35:36.360 --> 35:39.620 just going extinct at record numbers.

35:39.620 --> 35:45.020 Just these ecosystems can't adapt as fast as they need to because the change is outpacing

35:45.020 --> 35:48.600 evolution, like the natural pace of evolution.

35:48.600 --> 35:49.600 We know that.

35:49.600 --> 35:51.620 This is anthropogenic climate change.

35:51.620 --> 35:54.100 This isn't naturally occurring climate change.

35:54.100 --> 35:58.040 So these organisms can't adapt fast enough and you end up seeing, you know, like there's

35:58.040 --> 36:02.140 so many examples we can point to, but like too many lionfish in the ocean, too much algae

36:02.140 --> 36:06.660 in the ocean, too many sea urchins in the ocean and they just like take over.

36:06.660 --> 36:07.660 We see coral bleaching.

36:07.660 --> 36:11.460 We see all of these negative downstream effects.

36:11.460 --> 36:17.260 And then the last point that's made, which is always the last point that's made, is there

36:17.260 --> 36:21.260 is still a chance that we can do something about this.

36:21.260 --> 36:22.820 There is a chance.

36:22.820 --> 36:28.500 We probably can't do things incrementally the way we have been.

36:28.500 --> 36:29.860 It's just not fast enough.

36:29.860 --> 36:34.300 If we keep doing the incremental, like even Biden, I think his new commitment is something

36:34.300 --> 36:35.740 like reducing global emissions.

36:35.740 --> 36:39.280 I'm doing this from memory, but I think it's reducing global emissions by half, greenhouse

36:39.280 --> 36:45.940 emissions by half by 2030 and net zero by 2050, which is like we're not on track to

36:45.940 --> 36:47.300 meet that at all.

36:47.300 --> 36:51.840 Like when you look at our pace, we're nowhere near it, but that's like the new standard.

36:51.840 --> 36:56.880 If we do that, it's maybe going to be, I mean, here's what we know.

36:56.880 --> 37:01.740 If we stop putting out greenhouse gases, we stop global climate change.

37:01.740 --> 37:02.780 That's how it works.

37:02.780 --> 37:07.740 There's a little bit of a blowback effect right after where like the effects are going

37:07.740 --> 37:13.460 to continue on, but they won't necessarily run away.

37:13.460 --> 37:18.060 If we stop putting out greenhouse gases, there are no more greenhouse gases being put out

37:18.060 --> 37:22.900 above these levels, and then we can start to kind of fix and heal.

37:22.900 --> 37:27.580 But none of that is going to happen until we stop, and the truth is we're not stopping.

37:27.580 --> 37:32.620 We're slowing down, but we're beyond the point where slowing down is going to do anything.

37:32.620 --> 37:33.620 We have to stop.

37:33.620 --> 37:34.620 Yeah.

37:34.620 --> 37:39.280 So, Carol, I've been doing a lot of research on that very question, like basically where

37:39.280 --> 37:47.180 are we in our efforts to slow down climate change, and there's actually some good news

37:47.180 --> 37:48.540 here.

37:48.540 --> 37:54.340 I think the bad news is that the negative effects at any given temperature rise is worse

37:54.340 --> 37:55.640 than we thought.

37:55.640 --> 38:03.060 So 2.0 is worse than we thought 2.0 was going to be 10 years ago, but the projection of

38:03.060 --> 38:05.400 where we are heading is getting better.

38:05.400 --> 38:12.380 So 10 years ago, the business as usual projection, like if we don't make substantial changes

38:12.380 --> 38:18.820 to what's happening, was that we would end up somewhere between like three to four or

38:18.820 --> 38:24.220 even higher degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, right?

38:24.220 --> 38:34.580 Now today, the business as usual projection is more like 2.3, 2.4 degrees, and what business

38:34.580 --> 38:42.380 as usual is, is if all of the countries do not reverse policies that they've already

38:42.380 --> 38:46.780 funded to mitigate climate change, so all they have to do is just keep doing what they've

38:46.780 --> 38:53.020 already actually funded, we'll settle in somewhere around 2.3, 2.4.

38:53.020 --> 38:59.560 If they keep all of their commitments that they've made at COP26 last year, even ones

38:59.560 --> 39:06.900 that haven't been funded yet by their government, we'll keep warming below 2.0, probably like

39:06.900 --> 39:10.060 somewhere around 1.8.

39:10.060 --> 39:18.100 We're not on track to get to 1.5, to keep it below 1.5, which was the Paris Accord goal,

39:18.100 --> 39:22.700 but they didn't commit to doing things that would achieve that goal.

39:22.700 --> 39:26.980 The commitments only keep it to maybe 1.8, and they've only funded enough to keep it

39:26.980 --> 39:29.380 to like 2.3, 2.4.

39:29.380 --> 39:32.140 That's still a lot better than where we were 10 years ago.

39:32.140 --> 39:35.340 Yeah, but remember, the reason it's better than where it was 10 years ago is because

39:35.340 --> 39:37.700 we've been doing so much.

39:37.700 --> 39:39.140 I know, because we've been doing things.

39:39.140 --> 39:40.660 I know that that's the point.

39:40.660 --> 39:41.660 And that is good.

39:41.660 --> 39:42.660 That's very good.

39:42.660 --> 39:43.660 Yeah.

39:43.660 --> 39:54.060 If we continue to up our game, I think at this point I would say that we have a good

39:54.060 --> 39:59.420 chance of keeping it below 2.0, 1.5, probably not.

39:59.420 --> 40:05.920 That would take a massive effort that no one really thinks we have the political will around

40:05.920 --> 40:07.880 the world to do it.

40:07.880 --> 40:11.980 Half of the solution is going to be technological progress.

40:11.980 --> 40:14.440 Things are progressing nicely.

40:14.440 --> 40:22.040 And the other half is things like Biden's climate change mitigation funding, which is

40:22.040 --> 40:23.300 making a difference.

40:23.300 --> 40:25.780 The industry responded.

40:25.780 --> 40:37.020 They're investing in transitioning to lower carbon technologies in response to that funding.

40:37.020 --> 40:42.040 And ultimately, here's the point of all that.

40:42.040 --> 40:43.780 It's going to hurt a little bit.

40:43.780 --> 40:46.020 We have to make sacrifices right now.

40:46.020 --> 40:47.020 We have to.

40:47.020 --> 40:48.020 I'm not sure I agree with that.

40:48.020 --> 40:49.020 I'm not sure I agree with that.

40:49.020 --> 40:50.020 Are you serious, Steve?

40:50.020 --> 40:51.020 Yeah, I am.

40:51.020 --> 40:52.020 I am serious.

40:52.020 --> 40:53.420 It's business as usual.

40:53.420 --> 40:59.460 No, there's a lot of territory between sacrificing and business as usual.

40:59.460 --> 41:01.420 We don't have to really sacrifice.

41:01.420 --> 41:04.340 All we have to do is invest wisely.

41:04.340 --> 41:05.340 That's it.

41:05.340 --> 41:10.260 I'm talking about personal experiential sacrifice.

41:10.260 --> 41:11.260 I don't think that the individuals-

41:11.260 --> 41:12.980 Give up your gas car.

41:12.980 --> 41:14.340 Don't use as much water.

41:14.340 --> 41:15.560 Yes, we do have to.

41:15.560 --> 41:17.780 We cannot keep living the way we've been living.

41:17.780 --> 41:18.780 We can't.

41:18.780 --> 41:20.340 So water is a separate issue.

41:20.340 --> 41:26.260 There are already places that are experiencing water insufficiency, I mean obviously around

41:26.260 --> 41:29.580 the world, but even in the US now, since that's what you're talking about.

41:29.580 --> 41:35.780 So yes, there are populations even in developed nations that are already paying the price

41:35.780 --> 41:38.220 for existing global warming.

41:38.220 --> 41:42.780 But I'm saying in terms of the solution, the solutions don't have to be sacrifice.

41:42.780 --> 41:45.460 The solutions really are just being smart.

41:45.460 --> 41:49.380 It's just investing money where we will get the most bang for the buck.

41:49.380 --> 41:57.140 If we do that, if we invested intelligently and we, for example, invest and this is why

41:57.140 --> 42:01.980 I think it was called the Inflation Reduction Act, but it included a lot of climate change

42:01.980 --> 42:03.940 mitigation funding.

42:03.940 --> 42:08.860 I read through that whole thing, there's a lot of smart funding in there that is going

42:08.860 --> 42:10.220 to move us in the right direction.

42:10.220 --> 42:14.100 We need a lot more of that and we need a lot of other countries to do that.

42:14.100 --> 42:18.580 But if we invest and upgrade in the grid, we continue our investments in grid storage,

42:18.580 --> 42:24.500 we continue to invest in building, build out the wind and solar as fast as we can to get

42:24.500 --> 42:31.060 to that 30 to 40% rate and then push it further by investing in the grid and grid storage.

42:31.060 --> 42:38.420 If we start investing in nuclear and geothermal and hydroelectric, we can get there.

42:38.420 --> 42:43.860 We incentivize the steel making industry and the cement making industry to continue to

42:43.860 --> 42:48.380 develop lower carbon alternatives, which there's already a lot of science there to work with

42:48.380 --> 42:54.320 – we absolutely can get there and we can do it without each individual having to make

42:54.320 --> 42:55.320 a big sacrifice.

42:55.320 --> 43:05.740 In fact, we'll be making less sacrifice because it'll be a lot easier on the individual

43:05.740 --> 43:08.140 than the resulting climate change is going to be.

43:08.140 --> 43:11.740 Of course it's going to be easier on certain individuals than the resulting climate change

43:11.740 --> 43:16.860 is going to be on certain individuals, but I fundamentally disagree with this mentality.

43:16.860 --> 43:21.180 I really, really don't believe that we can do everything on the other side of it.

43:21.180 --> 43:27.660 It's not all going to be industry-like free market options for preventing these kinds

43:27.660 --> 43:29.260 of outcomes.

43:29.260 --> 43:34.900 We cannot continue to live the extractive and consumptive lifestyles that we live.

43:34.900 --> 43:35.900 We can't.

43:35.900 --> 43:37.780 That's the reason this happened.

43:37.780 --> 43:42.780 We have to be mindful of how we live our lives because otherwise we're constantly going

43:42.780 --> 43:49.700 to see industries who claim that they're doing this in the best interest of their consumer

43:49.700 --> 43:52.140 to make sure that they get a pass.

43:52.140 --> 43:53.140 And I disagree.

43:53.140 --> 43:55.580 I just don't think those things are mutually exclusive.

43:55.580 --> 44:00.100 When I talk about making sacrifices, I don't mean that you have to die for this cause.

44:00.100 --> 44:05.260 I mean that you can't keep living as if climate change doesn't exist.

44:05.260 --> 44:08.140 I don't feel like buying an electric car was a sacrifice.

44:08.140 --> 44:11.820 I actually enjoy my electric car better than I do any gas car I've ever owned.

44:11.820 --> 44:17.100 Well, a lot of people don't feel that way, and that's what I'm talking about.

44:17.100 --> 44:21.340 A lot of people don't want to put a flow reducer on their showerhead.

44:21.340 --> 44:25.780 A lot of people don't want to turn their water off when they're brushing their teeth.

44:25.780 --> 44:30.900 I know they sound stupid and small, but the reason that we have to make these massive

44:30.900 --> 44:39.980 regulatory jumps in order to wildly mitigate, because the main outcome of this report is

44:39.980 --> 44:41.780 we cannot keep doing incremental shit.

44:41.780 --> 44:42.900 It's not working.

44:42.900 --> 44:50.260 We have to revolutionize the way that we want to put a stop to this.

44:50.260 --> 44:53.260 We do fundamentally disagree on this issue, because I think that you're wrong.

44:53.260 --> 44:57.860 I also think that your strategy will fail, because people are not going to do it.

44:57.860 --> 45:01.220 And I think my strategy will succeed, because people will do it.

45:01.220 --> 45:07.780 But you're also looking at it like it's a binary, like it's a dialectic, and it's not.

45:07.780 --> 45:10.280 Both of these things have to happen.

45:10.280 --> 45:13.420 We have to fundamentally change our approach to climate change, which young people, by

45:13.420 --> 45:14.900 the way, are.

45:14.900 --> 45:15.900 Young people get it.

45:15.900 --> 45:16.900 Yeah, I agree.

45:16.900 --> 45:20.940 But I think, and I agree, I think we need to science the shit out of it and moneyball

45:20.940 --> 45:26.240 the shit out of it, meaning that we need to say, what is the shortest path between where

45:26.240 --> 45:34.040 we are now and a massive decarbonization of our electrical sector and transportation

45:34.040 --> 45:37.580 sector and industrial sector, right?

45:37.580 --> 45:45.460 And that path is through picking the low-hanging fruit and making the most cost-effective decisions

45:45.460 --> 45:46.460 possible.

45:46.460 --> 45:47.460 Oh, hugely.

45:47.460 --> 45:51.180 And that's also the most politically expedient way to get there.

45:51.180 --> 45:54.540 And if our message is, all right, guys, we all have to sacrifice, we're going to get

45:54.540 --> 45:55.540 nowhere.

45:55.540 --> 45:57.420 It's just not going to happen.

45:57.420 --> 46:02.120 I hear what you're saying, like it's a messaging problem, but ultimately we do have to sacrifice.

46:02.120 --> 46:06.260 The truth of the matter is that may be the low-hanging fruit.

46:06.260 --> 46:11.220 It may be the most obvious and the most effective algorithm.

46:11.220 --> 46:16.520 But if people don't willfully do it, it's moot.

46:16.520 --> 46:17.520 And ultimately-

46:17.520 --> 46:21.500 Yeah, but that's why I think the solution can't be, all right, we need 8 billion people

46:21.500 --> 46:22.500 to change their behavior.

46:22.500 --> 46:23.500 That can't be the approach.

46:23.500 --> 46:24.500 That will never work.

46:24.500 --> 46:25.500 I never said that was the solution.

46:25.500 --> 46:26.900 I mean, that's not going to work.

46:26.900 --> 46:27.900 We can't-

46:27.900 --> 46:28.900 You're really minimizing what I said.

46:28.900 --> 46:31.620 No, I'm just saying, well, maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.

46:31.620 --> 46:35.460 You're saying we all have to work together to make this work, and we all have to sacrifice

46:35.460 --> 46:36.700 individually.

46:36.700 --> 46:42.260 Just from a practical point of view, getting a lot of people to do something is a failed

46:42.260 --> 46:43.260 approach.

46:43.260 --> 46:44.260 It never works.

46:44.260 --> 46:46.420 I would rather pass one law than get-

46:46.420 --> 46:49.860 Yeah, but that's how you get people to do stuff, is you regulate the shit out of them.

46:49.860 --> 46:52.020 Yeah, I agree with that as well, but I mean-

46:52.020 --> 46:54.980 But I'm saying we need to regulate things that actually might hurt a little bit.

46:54.980 --> 46:59.700 We need to stop going, oh, it's never going to be popular, so we can't do it.

46:59.700 --> 47:02.180 I'm scared of the people we keep putting in power.

47:02.180 --> 47:08.420 Yeah, but you're just sort of pushing, kicking that can one leg down, if you say, all right,

47:08.420 --> 47:13.460 we're going to vote for people who are going to tell us things we don't want to hear.

47:13.460 --> 47:15.180 It's also not going to work.

47:15.180 --> 47:16.180 You're going to end up with-

47:16.180 --> 47:17.180 Because they won't vote for those people.

47:17.180 --> 47:18.520 With the global warming denials.

47:18.520 --> 47:23.900 If you say, all right, listen, all we have to do is invest wisely, and also I think we

47:23.900 --> 47:26.820 should be putting the burden on the industry, not the individuals.

47:26.820 --> 47:27.820 Of course we should.

47:27.820 --> 47:29.980 We should regulate the industries.

47:29.980 --> 47:33.420 I personally think we should just price carbon, and all the experts agree that that's the

47:33.420 --> 47:34.420 best way to fix this.

47:34.420 --> 47:36.940 Carbon tax, of course that's the way to do it.

47:36.940 --> 47:39.100 But nobody wants to do it, unfortunately.

47:39.100 --> 47:44.300 I'm not saying that this is a marketing strategy, is to tell people it's going to hurt.

47:44.300 --> 47:46.060 Of course that's not what I'm saying.

47:46.060 --> 47:50.100 What I'm saying is that we all need to be realistic, and stop living in a Pollyanna

47:50.100 --> 47:53.840 world where we're not willing to have it hurt.

47:53.840 --> 47:58.220 The things we have to do as a society are going to hurt a little bit, and if we sit

47:58.220 --> 48:02.020 here and cross our arms and say, I'm not willing to make any changes.

48:02.020 --> 48:06.140 I want to live the same extractive, consumptive life I've always lived.

48:06.140 --> 48:08.820 I'm sorry, we're not going to get out of this.

48:08.820 --> 48:10.400 That's how we got into it.

48:10.400 --> 48:13.660 My perspective is, I'll just say this, it's not necessarily mutually exclusive to what

48:13.660 --> 48:22.580 you're saying, but I would say just strategically, I would say let's do all the win-wins first.

48:22.580 --> 48:23.580 Let's do all-

48:23.580 --> 48:25.260 Yeah, and I would say we should have already done all of those.

48:25.260 --> 48:26.260 I agree.

48:26.260 --> 48:27.660 All of this we should have done 20 years ago.

48:27.660 --> 48:30.540 There's no question about that.

48:30.540 --> 48:36.460 We should go back in time 20 years and completely change the course of what we've done the last

48:36.460 --> 48:37.460 two decades.

48:37.460 --> 48:38.460 I like that plan.

48:38.460 --> 48:46.860 Failing that, again, the quickest path is first going through all the things that do

48:46.860 --> 48:48.340 not require sacrifice.

48:48.340 --> 48:50.420 They just require being smart.

48:50.420 --> 48:56.260 Let's do those things, and if we also then have to make some sacrifice after all of that,

48:56.260 --> 48:58.220 that's fine, we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

48:58.220 --> 49:02.340 I guess what I'm scared of is that 50% of the country thinks that those smart, low-hanging

49:02.340 --> 49:05.380 fruit things are sacrifices for them.

49:05.380 --> 49:09.060 Well, that's where messaging can help.

49:09.060 --> 49:13.220 If you ask people, why don't you want to drive an electric car, they give bullshit reasons

49:13.220 --> 49:16.300 that aren't true because they have misconceptions about it.

49:16.300 --> 49:18.120 They go, oh, the range isn't enough.

49:18.120 --> 49:19.120 That's not true.

49:19.120 --> 49:25.460 I think my thing is unless we're on the bleeding edge of this, we're already behind.

49:25.460 --> 49:30.580 But as I said, it's actually not as bad as it was 10 years ago.

49:30.580 --> 49:37.740 The thing is doing the things that we're doing and the technological progress has significantly

49:37.740 --> 49:41.580 improved our position, and it has.

49:41.580 --> 49:42.580 It just has.

49:42.580 --> 49:43.840 And we have to update the models constantly.

49:43.840 --> 49:50.740 And Catherine Hayhoe, who's quoted a lot in this one WAFO article, she basically makes

49:50.740 --> 49:54.700 the point, and I think it's an important point because we don't do this enough, that like

49:54.700 --> 49:56.960 this is all just modeling.

49:56.960 --> 50:00.700 We don't know if there's a difference between 1.6 and 1.7.

50:00.700 --> 50:01.700 These are just rants.

50:01.700 --> 50:06.980 Yes, there's data that goes into this, but these are just arbitrary cutoffs.

50:06.980 --> 50:08.980 It's all modeling.

50:08.980 --> 50:14.180 The bad news is the effect of the temperature is worse than we thought, but where we're

50:14.180 --> 50:20.180 going to land is better than it was.

50:20.180 --> 50:26.680 I do think that the only ultimate solution is technological, but what we really should

50:26.680 --> 50:32.620 be focusing on is just making that happen as quickly as possible by investing optimally

50:32.620 --> 50:35.640 and regulating industry optimally.

50:35.640 --> 50:37.680 And we're not there yet.

50:37.680 --> 50:39.340 We're moving in the right direction at least.

50:39.340 --> 50:44.940 Kara, my concern is, well, first let me say I really do agree with what you're saying.

50:44.940 --> 50:52.540 I would love it if we made palpable, very, very strong changes to our society in order

50:52.540 --> 50:54.700 to help the environment, absolutely.

50:54.700 --> 51:00.220 And I would be willing to sacrifice and spend more money on a lot of things and make changes

51:00.220 --> 51:07.340 at this point because I feel how desperate the situation is just like you do, and I want

51:07.340 --> 51:08.340 that.

51:08.340 --> 51:13.580 I honestly don't think that most people in the United States are capable of doing what

51:13.580 --> 51:14.940 I just said.

51:14.940 --> 51:18.320 But like even in the U.S., what are we going to do, you say, oh yeah, we should let gas

51:18.320 --> 51:19.320 be $5 a gallon.

51:19.320 --> 51:20.860 It's like, yeah, I could survive that.

51:20.860 --> 51:24.620 My point is, but there's a lot of people who can't survive that, like they literally cannot

51:24.620 --> 51:25.620 afford that.

51:25.620 --> 51:28.900 I totally turn off the water when I'm brushing my teeth.

51:28.900 --> 51:29.900 Thank you.

51:29.900 --> 51:31.460 I don't even brush my teeth with water anymore.

51:31.460 --> 51:32.460 Because of you, Kara.

51:32.460 --> 51:33.460 Thank you.

51:33.460 --> 51:34.460 I'm not kidding.

51:34.460 --> 51:35.460 Yeah, that makes me so happy.

51:35.460 --> 51:36.460 I just gargle with baking soda.

51:36.460 --> 51:39.940 I thought about that for so many times, like, yep, got to shut it down.

51:39.940 --> 51:43.300 I remember what Kara said and that was like a habit.

51:43.300 --> 51:44.300 I love it.

51:44.300 --> 51:45.300 We installed new toilets in our house.

51:45.300 --> 51:46.300 All.

51:46.300 --> 51:47.300 Low flow, baby.

51:47.300 --> 51:48.300 Yeah.

51:48.300 --> 51:49.300 Go with the low.

51:49.300 --> 51:50.300 All right, guys.

51:50.300 --> 51:51.300 Let's move on.

51:51.300 --> 51:52.300 Healthy discourse.

Closest Black Hole ()

• [link_URL TITLE]

51:52.300 --> 51:53.300 All right, Bob.

51:53.300 --> 51:57.700 I understand that astronomers have detected the closest black hole to the Earth.

51:57.700 --> 51:59.220 Like that Disney movie from 1979?

51:59.220 --> 52:01.100 You understand nothing.

52:01.100 --> 52:07.820 I will say, I will say boffins baffled by black hole in backyard.

52:07.820 --> 52:08.820 Oh, Bob.

52:08.820 --> 52:10.460 I like that.

52:10.460 --> 52:17.060 So non alliteratively and less pithily, scientists have found the closest black hole to the Earth,

52:17.060 --> 52:20.060 three times closer, in fact, than the previous record holder.

52:20.060 --> 52:22.360 And it comes wrapped in a mystery, however.

52:22.360 --> 52:26.320 It's orbited by a sun like star and it shouldn't be there.

52:26.320 --> 52:29.660 So how did these two crazy kids get together?

52:29.660 --> 52:34.320 This was published in the monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, led by

52:34.320 --> 52:39.700 Kareem El Badri, is an astrophysicist at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

52:39.700 --> 52:43.740 So this black hole is called Gaia BH1.

52:43.740 --> 52:46.020 It's 1600 light years away.

52:46.020 --> 52:47.140 And you know, that's a lot.

52:47.140 --> 52:50.620 That's like, you know, nine thousand and a half trillion miles.

52:50.620 --> 52:53.940 But you know, it isn't a lot at the same time.

52:53.940 --> 52:59.540 The National Science Foundation's Newar Lab said it's in our cosmic backyard, which it

52:59.540 --> 53:00.540 really is.

53:00.540 --> 53:02.460 Sixteen hundred light years is not a lot.

53:02.460 --> 53:08.100 It also has a binary partner that is very much like the sun and is about as far from

53:08.100 --> 53:10.620 the black hole as we are from our sun.

53:10.620 --> 53:16.180 So take our solar system, take away all the planets and throw the sun where we are and

53:16.180 --> 53:18.540 put a big black hole where the sun is.

53:18.540 --> 53:20.100 And that's this system.

53:20.100 --> 53:21.280 So that's basically it.

53:21.280 --> 53:27.020 So the black hole has 10 times the mass of our sun, making it a stellar mass black hole,

53:27.020 --> 53:30.660 which typically ranges from five to 100 solar masses.

53:30.660 --> 53:35.820 And we've only detected a handful of stellar mass black holes in the Milky Way.

53:35.820 --> 53:40.860 And most are active, meaning that they pull matter from a companion and that process releases

53:40.860 --> 53:43.420 intense radiation like X-rays.

53:43.420 --> 53:49.580 But now not all stellar mass black holes that inhabit binary systems are actively feeding

53:49.580 --> 53:50.580 though.

53:50.580 --> 53:52.060 It's kind of like Jay.

53:52.060 --> 53:57.140 There are times during family dinners when he's not actively feeding, but you need specialized

53:57.140 --> 53:59.980 instrumentation to detect that.

53:59.980 --> 54:07.940 It's those hidden small black holes, stellar mass black holes that these researchers have

54:07.940 --> 54:12.920 been looking for and they found one after examining data from the European Space Agency's

54:12.920 --> 54:19.020 Gaia Space Observatory, hence the name Gaia BH1, black hole one.

54:19.020 --> 54:25.260 And Gaia studies basically the stars of the Milky Way in detail.

54:25.260 --> 54:30.700 These detailed measurements revealed a tiny wobble in a star that could be caused by a

54:30.700 --> 54:32.620 great unseen mass.

54:32.620 --> 54:36.700 So for follow-up observations and calculations, they used what's called the Gemini, or is

54:36.700 --> 54:43.360 it Gemini, the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph, and that allowed for even more precise velocity

54:43.360 --> 54:48.780 measurements and orbital periods, which then allowed for the calculation of the masses

54:48.780 --> 54:49.780 involved.

54:49.780 --> 54:51.080 And that was obviously critical.

54:51.080 --> 54:56.180 This revealed that the inner binary partner had to have something close to 10 times the

54:56.180 --> 54:57.900 mass of the sun.

54:57.900 --> 55:01.700 And I love how they described their conclusion in their paper.

55:01.700 --> 55:07.580 They said, we find no plausible astrophysical scenario that can explain the orbit and does

55:07.580 --> 55:09.640 not involve a black hole.

55:09.640 --> 55:13.660 So in other words, it's a fricking black hole, duh.

55:13.660 --> 55:18.540 This is not only then the closest black hole to the Earth we know of, but also the first

55:18.540 --> 55:24.500 verified sun-like star in such a wide orbit around a stellar mass black hole.

55:24.500 --> 55:29.820 And that's the key to the coming mystery of this system is like, this is a sun-like star

55:29.820 --> 55:33.020 and it's in a very, very wide orbit, which is unusual.

55:33.020 --> 55:37.980 Like I was saying, this is a mysterious system in a lot of ways because it doesn't make sense.

55:37.980 --> 55:42.060 The black hole, think about this black hole, it used to be a star, right?

55:42.060 --> 55:43.860 I mean, duh.

55:43.860 --> 55:50.260 That star probably had about 20 solar masses because that would probably produce a 10 solar

55:50.260 --> 55:51.260 mass black hole.

55:51.260 --> 55:56.180 So it had 20 solar masses, which means that it only lives for a few million years because

55:56.180 --> 55:59.420 it goes through that fuel so fast.

55:59.420 --> 56:05.500 And it would have puffed up into a super giant and consumed the star that's there now, the

56:05.500 --> 56:06.920 sun-like star that's there.

56:06.920 --> 56:13.460 Even before that star became a mature star, it would have just totally consumed it and

56:13.460 --> 56:15.340 wouldn't be there now.

56:15.340 --> 56:19.960 Models that the scientists have run show that the star could have survived, but it means

56:19.960 --> 56:26.180 that it would have ended up in a much, much tighter orbit, nothing like the 100 million

56:26.180 --> 56:30.380 mile or 95 million mile orbit that it's in now.

56:30.380 --> 56:35.660 So it's just like they're very puzzled, which of course is good in science in a lot of ways.

56:35.660 --> 56:40.160 So that means that our models of black hole binary evolution may need tweaking and there

56:40.160 --> 56:44.140 may be far more such systems than we think out there.

56:44.140 --> 56:48.220 Kareem El Badri said, it's interesting that this system is not easily accommodated by

56:48.220 --> 56:50.340 standard binary evolution models.

56:50.340 --> 56:55.060 It poses many questions about how this binary system was formed, as well as how many of

56:55.060 --> 56:57.540 these dormant black holes there are out there.

56:57.540 --> 57:00.700 The observations also leave a mystery to be solved.

57:00.700 --> 57:06.500 Despite a shared history with its exotic neighbor, why is the companion star in this binary system

57:06.500 --> 57:08.100 so normal?

57:08.100 --> 57:14.800 I'm sure in the future when Gaia releases more data, these researchers and other researchers

57:14.800 --> 57:20.380 of course will be poring over it, looking for more stealthy, dormant, stellar mass black

57:20.380 --> 57:27.380 holes and maybe find one even closer to Earth and hopefully the boffins will be less baffled.

57:27.380 --> 57:29.620 Excellent.

57:29.620 --> 57:33.020 But this black hole is not going to gobble us up though, right Bob?

57:33.020 --> 57:34.020 1600?

57:34.020 --> 57:36.460 No, it's just like, yeah, I love that.

57:36.460 --> 57:42.740 The gravity is going to reach 1600 light years and sure, that gravity is theoretically detectable,

57:42.740 --> 57:47.100 but it's, you know, it's so far away, it's not magically going to reach out and suck

57:47.100 --> 57:53.100 anything up, just like, you know, it's gravity folks, it's intense, but it's far.

57:53.100 --> 57:58.700 If our own sun were a black hole, gravitationally wouldn't, but of the same mass as our sun,

57:58.700 --> 57:59.700 right?

57:59.700 --> 58:01.700 But just in a black hole, gravitationally wouldn't make any difference to us.

58:01.700 --> 58:02.700 Yeah.

58:02.700 --> 58:03.700 It would get dark and we would stay in orbit.

58:03.700 --> 58:04.700 It would still be orbiting.

58:04.700 --> 58:07.100 We would still be orbiting it in the same way, the gravity wouldn't affect us anymore.

58:07.100 --> 58:08.100 We just wouldn't be alive because...

58:08.100 --> 58:09.100 It would just be dark.

58:09.100 --> 58:10.100 Yeah.

58:10.100 --> 58:11.100 Yeah.

58:11.100 --> 58:12.100 And cold.

58:12.100 --> 58:13.100 And cold.

58:13.100 --> 58:14.100 Very cold.

[top]                        

Interview with ___ ()

• _Interviewee_Topic_Event_
• [link_URL _homepage_or_article_title_]

Skeptical Puzzle ()

• Answer to last week's Puzzle: _brief_description_perhaps_with_link_

Who's That Noisy? ()

Answer to previous Noisy:

_brief_description_of_answer_ _perhaps_with_a_link_

New Noisy ()

[_short_vague_description_of_Noisy]

short_text_from_transcript

Name That Logical Fallacy ()

• _Fallacy_Topic_Event_
• [link_URL TITLE]

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –

Questions/Emails/Corrections/Follow-ups ()

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –

Question_Email_Correction #2: _brief_description_ ()

[top]                        

Science or Fiction (h:mm:ss)

Item #1: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #2: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #3: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #4: (_item_text_from_show_notes_)

Answer	Item
Fiction
Science

Host	Result
Steve

Rogue	Guess

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Skeptical Quote of the Week ()

TEXT
– AUTHOR (YYYY-YYYY), _short_description_

Signoff/Announcements ()

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

[top]                        

Today I Learned

• Fact/Description, possibly with an article reference
• Fact/Description
• Fact/Description

References

Vocabulary