SGU Episode 904

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SGU Episode 904
November 5th 2022
A cobot, or collaborative robot
SGU 903                      SGU 905
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Guests
GH: George Hrab
AM: Ajia Mae Moon, Canadian cannabis activist
Quote of the Week
QUOTE
AUTHOR, _short_description_
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
[ https://sguforums.org/index.php?BOARD=1.0 Forum Discussion]

Introduction

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality. 00:12.840 Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

00:12.840 --> 00:17.880 Today is Thursday, November 3rd, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.

00:17.880 --> 00:19.440 Joining me this week are Bob Novella,

00:19.440 --> 00:20.440 Hey everybody.

00:20.440 --> 00:21.440 Kara Santamaria,

00:21.440 --> 00:22.440 Howdy.

00:22.440 --> 00:23.440 Jay Novella,

00:23.440 --> 00:24.440 Hey guys.

00:24.440 --> 00:25.440 And Evan Bernstein.

00:25.440 --> 00:26.440 Good evening, everyone.

00:26.440 --> 00:27.440 How is everyone?

00:27.440 --> 00:29.480 Bob, how was your Halloween?

00:29.480 --> 00:31.000 It was really good.

00:31.000 --> 00:32.000 It was really good.

00:32.000 --> 00:33.560 I decorated the new house.

00:33.560 --> 00:40.080 It was a challenge, and I just actually finished because the party is November 5th, and most

00:40.080 --> 00:42.360 of you are coming.

00:42.360 --> 00:45.240 Those of you who aren't are sadly too far away.

00:45.240 --> 00:46.240 Sorry.

00:46.240 --> 00:48.080 Did you get a lot of kids at your new place?

00:48.080 --> 00:49.080 What's the traffic like?

00:49.080 --> 00:50.080 Did not.

00:50.080 --> 00:51.080 Did not.

00:51.080 --> 00:52.080 Got 16 little punks.

00:52.080 --> 00:53.080 That's a lot.

00:53.080 --> 00:55.600 They were, yeah, they were adorable, but 16.

00:55.600 --> 00:56.600 But it was fun.

00:56.600 --> 00:58.640 Liz and I, we sat on our porch swing.

00:58.640 --> 01:00.080 We had hot cider.

01:00.080 --> 01:02.600 I carved a pumpkin, listened to creepy music.

01:02.600 --> 01:04.400 It was, it was, it was adorable, fun.

01:04.400 --> 01:10.120 And then after that at six thirty, we went, we went in and watched scary movies all night.

01:10.120 --> 01:13.120 Is that, is 16, I don't know.

01:13.120 --> 01:15.880 Living in big cities, I feel like nobody comes to doors anymore.

01:15.880 --> 01:17.600 So 16 sounds like a lot to me.

01:17.600 --> 01:18.600 No, no, no.

01:18.600 --> 01:19.600 It's nothing.

01:19.600 --> 01:24.000 I mean, a lot I would say is 70 is a lot.

01:24.000 --> 01:25.000 I remember when it was a hundred.

01:25.000 --> 01:29.280 Yeah, no, Evan and I used to go around my neighborhood because it was better for trick

01:29.280 --> 01:30.280 or treating than his neighborhood.

01:30.280 --> 01:33.160 So he would bring his daughter over, right, Evan?

01:33.160 --> 01:37.160 And there were like dozens and dozens of groups of kids roaming the neighborhood.

01:37.160 --> 01:39.960 Oh, there easily had to be a hundred kids in that neighborhood, Steve.

01:39.960 --> 01:42.960 Yeah, but this year we only got three groups of kids.

01:42.960 --> 01:47.400 I wonder if it's the pandemic or is just the neighborhood aging out?

01:47.400 --> 01:48.400 You know?

01:48.400 --> 01:49.400 I think it's the neighborhood aging out.

01:49.400 --> 01:52.280 You're just a whole bunch of old fuddy-duddies in that neighborhood.

01:52.280 --> 01:55.000 Yeah, but you kind of think that new families would rotate in.

01:55.000 --> 01:56.920 I mean, it's not like it's remained static.

01:56.920 --> 02:01.880 No, but still, you know, like my daughters are now away, you know, either at college

02:01.880 --> 02:06.800 or moved out and all of their friends that they were going to school with in the neighborhood

02:06.800 --> 02:08.440 are also moved away.

02:08.440 --> 02:12.400 So it hasn't been a complete turnover of everyone in the neighborhood.

02:12.400 --> 02:16.680 So but I do wonder how much of a pandemic effect there is, like are just people not

02:16.680 --> 02:17.680 doing this anymore.

02:17.680 --> 02:19.360 But you can easily wear a mask.

02:19.360 --> 02:24.600 Now Halloween is still hugely popular in terms of money spent and activities and stuff.

02:24.600 --> 02:26.480 It's still a huge, huge holiday.

02:26.480 --> 02:29.740 Like second only to Christmas in terms of money spent.

02:29.740 --> 02:30.740 It's big.

02:30.740 --> 02:31.740 Well, Valentine's Day.

02:31.740 --> 02:32.740 What about Valentine's Day?

02:32.740 --> 02:36.320 What about going to live performances of skeptical podcasts?

02:36.320 --> 02:37.920 Ooh, that sounds like fun.

02:37.920 --> 02:39.560 Steve, we got something coming up.

02:39.560 --> 02:41.240 I don't know if you're aware of this.

02:41.240 --> 02:45.600 I don't know if you've even considered the fact that in a short number of weeks, like

02:45.600 --> 02:46.600 what are we talking about?

02:46.600 --> 02:53.160 We're talking about like six weeks, five and a half weeks in about five and a half weeks.

02:53.160 --> 02:55.040 We are going to be in Arizona.

02:55.040 --> 02:56.120 Boots on the ground.

02:56.120 --> 02:57.120 Four shows lined up.

02:57.120 --> 02:58.200 Five and a half weeks.

02:58.200 --> 03:02.800 And I think we need to talk a little bit about what this means for the people that are in

03:02.800 --> 03:07.820 and around Arizona, because this is, you know, we're flying the whole crew out.

03:07.820 --> 03:08.820 This is a big deal.

03:08.820 --> 03:09.820 I mean, even George.

03:09.820 --> 03:10.820 You know what?

03:10.820 --> 03:11.820 We got to bring George on here.

03:11.820 --> 03:14.640 I want George to tell everyone about all the stuff that's going to happen.

03:14.640 --> 03:16.040 OK, let's bring him on.

03:16.040 --> 03:17.040 George Rob?

03:17.040 --> 03:18.040 I'm sorry.

03:18.040 --> 03:23.040 I'm still just unwrapping my candy from the weekend.

03:23.040 --> 03:24.040 Sorry.

03:24.040 --> 03:25.040 Oh, God.

03:25.040 --> 03:26.040 Delicious.

03:26.040 --> 03:27.040 Hi, George.

03:27.040 --> 03:28.040 Hi, George.

03:28.040 --> 03:29.040 Hey, everybody.

03:29.040 --> 03:30.040 What's going on?

Annoucements: Private Show (3:30)

03:30.040 --> 03:33.560 You know, you know, it's the season now, boys and girl.

03:33.560 --> 03:35.600 It's the it's we're past Halloween.

03:35.600 --> 03:37.140 We're getting into Thanksgiving now.

03:37.140 --> 03:38.560 And what happens after Thanksgiving?

03:38.560 --> 03:44.120 It's the holiday season full on, full on, 100 percent holiday season, whatever holiday

03:44.120 --> 03:45.120 you may be celebrating.

03:45.120 --> 03:49.320 And you know what's one of the most difficult things to do during the holiday season, especially

03:49.320 --> 03:52.840 if you've like been in a relationship for a long time or maybe you're like you're brand

03:52.840 --> 03:57.040 new to a relationship and you don't you don't you're not comfortable, you're not familiar

03:57.040 --> 03:58.640 or you've done everything a thousand times.

03:58.640 --> 03:59.840 You can't think of something new.

03:59.840 --> 04:05.140 The hardest thing to do at the holidays is to get a really good news.

04:05.140 --> 04:08.360 It's really hard to get a really good gift for someone.

04:08.360 --> 04:09.740 And wouldn't you know it?

04:09.740 --> 04:16.220 We here at SGU Productions have a really, really great gift that you can you can not

04:16.220 --> 04:19.200 only give to someone you love, you can give it to yourself.

04:19.200 --> 04:21.160 The way the world is nowadays.

04:21.160 --> 04:22.440 Give yourself a gift.

04:22.440 --> 04:23.440 You deserve it.

04:23.440 --> 04:25.240 What else is there to look forward to?

04:25.240 --> 04:30.680 We are so excited because we have this Arizona trip going on and you can get yourself or

04:30.680 --> 04:35.480 a loved one an incredibly special, unique kind of gift.

04:35.480 --> 04:36.480 Am I right, everybody?

04:36.480 --> 04:37.480 Guys?

04:37.480 --> 04:38.480 All right.

04:38.480 --> 04:39.480 Absolutely.

04:39.480 --> 04:40.480 It's going to be super fun.

04:40.480 --> 04:41.480 That's for sure.

04:41.480 --> 04:45.280 This is going to be above and beyond any kind of private event thing that we've ever done

04:45.280 --> 04:46.280 before.

04:46.280 --> 04:47.760 We've got the extravaganza's.

04:47.760 --> 04:48.760 Those are booked.

04:48.760 --> 04:51.760 Those are those are happening, which that that's a fantastic gift.

04:51.760 --> 04:53.120 You can get that for yourself.

04:53.120 --> 04:54.500 You can get that for your kids.

04:54.500 --> 04:56.120 You can get that for a loved one.

04:56.120 --> 05:00.640 Maybe maybe you want this gift and your loved one doesn't listen to the podcast.

05:00.640 --> 05:04.240 Well, you play them just like this little section right now and you just look at them

05:04.240 --> 05:05.240 to go.

05:05.240 --> 05:06.240 Well, that's interesting.

05:06.240 --> 05:07.240 Hello.

05:07.240 --> 05:08.240 Hello.

05:08.240 --> 05:09.240 That's interesting.

05:09.240 --> 05:10.240 That's interesting.

05:10.240 --> 05:11.240 Sweetheart is interesting.

05:11.240 --> 05:14.920 And we and we live close to Arizona.

05:14.920 --> 05:16.800 We even live in Arizona.

05:16.800 --> 05:21.760 We are going to have these two special private events that I am I am right now formulating

05:21.760 --> 05:27.160 a series of games that are going to not only put the rogues through their paces, but they're

05:27.160 --> 05:30.540 going to involve the audience in a very special and unique way.

05:30.540 --> 05:33.080 This is going to be something that we've never done before.

05:33.080 --> 05:34.080 It's going to be kind of common.

05:34.080 --> 05:38.160 I don't want to give away too, too much because part of the fun is unwrapping the gift, you

05:38.160 --> 05:39.160 know.

05:39.160 --> 05:47.800 But imagine imagine sort of combining scavenger hunts along with trivia, along with opportunities

05:47.800 --> 05:51.880 to see the rogues be absolutely embarrassed.

05:51.880 --> 05:52.880 What else do you want?

05:52.880 --> 05:53.880 Right.

05:53.880 --> 05:58.160 What else could you possibly want during the holiday season in the middle of December in

05:58.160 --> 06:03.080 the desert other than to see maybe Bob being really embarrassed because he couldn't figure

06:03.080 --> 06:06.660 out an answer to something and he has to pay a penalty by, I don't know, maybe dancing

06:06.660 --> 06:11.640 the Macarena or just something I'm just spitballing here.

06:11.640 --> 06:14.280 I am formulating a bunch of relief.

06:14.280 --> 06:15.960 It's oh, it's so going to happen.

06:15.960 --> 06:16.960 It's so going to happen.

06:16.960 --> 06:18.240 It's going to be fantastic.

06:18.240 --> 06:22.360 Look, in all seriousness, this is going to be if you are a fan of the program, if you've

06:22.360 --> 06:27.400 never got an opportunity to see the rogues live, there's going to not only be a chance

06:27.400 --> 06:30.600 to have one on one time with all of the rogues.

06:30.600 --> 06:34.960 There's going to be a live show that we're recording a private live podcast.

06:34.960 --> 06:39.500 You get to see how the sausage is made, and in this instance, you want to see how the

06:39.500 --> 06:43.800 sausage is made because invariably, there's always stuff that doesn't quite make the

06:43.800 --> 06:44.800 show.

06:44.800 --> 06:45.800 All the juicy stuff.

06:45.800 --> 06:49.520 Maybe you wonder to yourself, all the juicy stuff, what doesn't make the show?

06:49.520 --> 06:50.520 What arguments?

06:50.520 --> 06:51.520 What little f-bombs?

06:51.520 --> 06:55.560 What little particular kinds of things might not make the final show?

06:55.560 --> 07:01.320 Well, you're going to have an inside viewer's look at this and to see what goes into the

07:01.320 --> 07:02.320 process.

07:02.320 --> 07:08.120 Let me tell you, as someone that's been on the inside and heard it all, it is so worth

07:08.120 --> 07:09.560 the price of admission sometimes.

07:09.560 --> 07:10.560 Let me tell you.

07:10.560 --> 07:15.240 There's going to be a two-hour-ish private recording thing, which is really fun, and

07:15.240 --> 07:20.100 then as if that's not enough, there'll be another hour and a half of just games and

07:20.100 --> 07:24.920 trivia and music and singing and scavenge hunting and singing.

07:24.920 --> 07:28.200 Again, Bob, probably dancing at some point.

07:28.200 --> 07:29.720 Maybe with a shirt on, maybe with a shirt off.

07:29.720 --> 07:30.720 I don't know.

07:30.720 --> 07:35.920 I'll show you how it works out, but it'll be amazing and so I cannot stress enough how

07:35.920 --> 07:39.600 you need to go to this program, go to these shows, go to the extravaganzas and get the

07:39.600 --> 07:40.600 private shows.

07:40.600 --> 07:41.600 Here's the thing.

07:41.600 --> 07:43.440 Here's the really cool thing.

07:43.440 --> 07:47.000 The private shows are always different, just like the extravaganzas.

07:47.000 --> 07:50.160 You can go to two extravaganzas in a row, and you'll have a very different time each

07:50.160 --> 07:55.320 time because there's so much improv involved in each night of the extravaganza.

07:55.320 --> 08:00.180 Every time we do that show, the funniest bit is something that's completely unscripted

08:00.180 --> 08:02.080 that takes all of us by surprise.

08:02.080 --> 08:03.080 Yeah, vacuum cleaner.

08:03.080 --> 08:04.080 100%.

08:04.080 --> 08:05.080 Vacuum cleaner.

08:05.080 --> 08:07.840 That happens like two or three times a show, all the time.

08:07.840 --> 08:12.120 Yeah, so you do that, but with the private show, with the private super... What are

08:12.120 --> 08:13.120 we calling this again?

08:13.120 --> 08:16.880 The private show plus because we're just lame at thinking of viewing the games, but it's

08:16.880 --> 08:19.360 a four-hour event, so I'm clear.

08:19.360 --> 08:24.320 The total thing is four hours, and it's made to have... In the middle, there's a private

08:24.320 --> 08:29.160 recording of the SGA, but the rest of it is designed to optimize intimate contact between

08:29.160 --> 08:30.520 the audience and the rogues.

08:30.520 --> 08:32.320 Yeah, so you want a photo with everybody?

08:32.320 --> 08:33.320 Done.

08:33.320 --> 08:34.320 You want an autograph?

08:34.320 --> 08:35.320 Done.

08:35.320 --> 08:36.320 You want to ask a question?

08:36.320 --> 08:37.320 Done.

08:37.320 --> 08:41.000 This is all stuff that you get to do plus, again, Bob dancing.

08:41.000 --> 08:45.160 I can't get past this idea of just... I'll take it easy.

08:45.160 --> 08:46.160 George, there may be prizes too.

08:46.160 --> 08:47.160 I'll dance with Kara.

08:47.160 --> 08:48.160 You didn't mention the prizes.

08:48.160 --> 08:49.160 Well, there's... Oh, gosh.

08:49.160 --> 08:53.800 Yeah, so not only will the games be happening, but as you're involved with the rogues and

08:53.800 --> 08:57.820 you're maybe on their team, maybe you're cheering them on, there will be prizes which

08:57.820 --> 09:03.120 will be giving out very exclusive, very fantastic, only limited to this kind of event, prizes

09:03.120 --> 09:05.840 that, again, maybe you want the prize signed.

09:05.840 --> 09:06.840 We can make that happen.

09:06.840 --> 09:08.200 What do we got going on?

09:08.200 --> 09:14.400 Shirts and books and buttons and kazoos and t-shirt cannons and all kinds of stuff is

09:14.400 --> 09:15.400 going to be happening.

09:15.400 --> 09:16.400 Yeah, we're giving away t-shirt cannons.

09:16.400 --> 09:17.400 It's insane.

09:17.400 --> 09:18.400 We're giving away... Yes, we're giving away 400 t-shirt cannons.

09:18.400 --> 09:19.400 It's going to be amazing.

09:19.400 --> 09:23.520 We had to... We wanted to know, hey, if we're going to give away t-shirts, somebody brought

09:23.520 --> 09:25.520 the idea that we should shoot them with a cannon.

09:25.520 --> 09:26.520 I looked it up.

09:26.520 --> 09:27.520 Those things are expensive.

09:27.520 --> 09:28.520 They're crazy.

09:28.520 --> 09:29.520 We're not going to be bringing the t-shirt cannon.

09:29.520 --> 09:34.280 We're not bringing the t-shirt cannon, but yeah, but we'll gladly throw something at you.

09:35.280 --> 09:36.280 We'll throw something at you.

09:36.280 --> 09:41.720 We'll lovingly lob something at you, which may be a t-shirt, maybe some kind of a prize,

09:41.720 --> 09:47.680 but it's all part of this four-hour monster event, which is just... It's going to be something that you'll remember for a very, very long time, and if you've been listening to the show for years or maybe you're brand new to the show, it'll be the kind of experience

09:56.400 --> 10:00.540 that will... It's funny how sometimes when people come to these programs that have never

10:00.540 --> 10:06.640 seen all of you live, how they're sometimes surprised at how you look, how you interact,

10:06.640 --> 10:11.600 who's tall, who's short, who's this, who's that, who's aged well, who's not aged so well.

10:12.600 --> 10:13.600 People always think I'm taller.

10:13.600 --> 10:14.600 I'm always amazed.

10:14.600 --> 10:15.600 We thought you'd be taller.

10:15.600 --> 10:16.600 I'm like, no, this is it.

10:16.600 --> 10:17.600 This is what you get.

10:17.600 --> 10:18.600 This is it.

10:18.600 --> 10:22.260 I'm sorry, but that's the kind of thing you get to experience at these private shows.

10:22.260 --> 10:27.480 We can't stress enough how excited we all are, and we can't stress enough how excited

10:27.480 --> 10:33.280 you will all be after having this monstrous four-hour private show plus event.

10:33.280 --> 10:35.120 Look, tickets are limited.

10:35.120 --> 10:37.160 That's the thing that we've got to press as well.

10:37.160 --> 10:41.920 Tickets are limited because we want it to be a relatively intimate kind of thing.

10:41.920 --> 10:45.180 We can't have four, five, 600 people at these things.

10:45.180 --> 10:48.120 It's got to be a smaller number of people so that we can have one-on-one time with all

10:48.120 --> 10:54.400 of you in various permutations, and we can throw a shirt at each one of you if you answer

10:54.400 --> 10:56.760 questions correctly or win prizes.

10:56.760 --> 10:58.080 It's going to be wonderful.

10:58.080 --> 10:59.080 It's going to be fantastic.

10:59.080 --> 11:00.080 What's the dates again there, Jay?

11:00.080 --> 11:04.240 Just give us the official dates.

11:04.240 --> 11:09.280 December 15th is the Phoenix Private Show Plus, so that's the live podcast recording.

11:09.280 --> 11:10.280 That's a Thursday.

11:10.280 --> 11:12.520 That's everything that George is just saying.

11:12.520 --> 11:19.080 On Friday night, we will be doing the Tucson extravaganza, then Saturday afternoon, we

11:19.080 --> 11:24.120 will be doing the Tucson Private Show Plus, and Saturday night, we will be back in Phoenix

11:24.120 --> 11:25.680 doing the extravaganza.

11:25.680 --> 11:29.520 It's a ping-ponging back and forth across the desert kind of weekend for us, which we

11:29.520 --> 11:31.440 are so excited.

11:31.440 --> 11:37.000 You have four opportunities if you live anywhere near Phoenix or Arizona or both of those to

11:37.000 --> 11:45.080 come to all four, or do one, or do two, or let's say three, or maybe even four, and have

11:45.080 --> 11:49.640 the time, have the SG-U-est time you could possibly have.

11:49.640 --> 11:50.640 Be full of SG-U-ness.

11:50.640 --> 11:51.640 It's full of SG-U-ness.

11:51.640 --> 11:56.880 While we're talking about it, George, the extravaganzas are going to be holiday-themed,

11:56.880 --> 12:00.480 and I guarantee you this will never happen again.

12:00.480 --> 12:05.800 That's the other cool thing, yeah, that we're making these special holiday-themed extravaganzas.

12:05.800 --> 12:10.640 The extravaganzas are always a great fun time, lots of games, lots of opportunities to watch

12:10.640 --> 12:16.960 the rogues try to improvise their way out of challenges that I provide for them, but

12:16.960 --> 12:20.360 because it's the middle of December, we're going to have lovely holiday-themed, which

12:20.360 --> 12:24.420 again, it's just going to put you in the mood, and it's the perfect present.

12:24.420 --> 12:25.680 It's the perfect present.

12:25.680 --> 12:30.900 Two weeks before Christmas, or whatever, 10 days before Christmas, like, here it is, sweetheart.

12:30.900 --> 12:33.240 Let's have a holiday extravaganza, and then guess what?

12:33.240 --> 12:36.680 I'm going to surprise you with a private show, plus we get to hang out with the rogues

12:36.680 --> 12:41.440 for another four hours tomorrow, where we did it yesterday and it was amazing.

12:41.440 --> 12:42.440 What's the site there?

12:42.440 --> 12:43.440 Where do they get the tickets, Jay?

12:43.440 --> 12:44.440 Tell them.

12:44.440 --> 12:49.040 They can go to theskepticsguide.org forward slash events for all four of these events.

12:49.040 --> 12:50.040 Do it.

12:50.040 --> 12:51.040 Do it.

12:51.040 --> 12:52.040 It's going to be great.

12:52.040 --> 12:53.040 We can't wait to see all of it.

12:53.040 --> 12:54.040 Thank you, George.

12:54.040 --> 12:55.040 Thanks for joining us.

12:55.040 --> 12:56.040 Thanks, George.

12:56.040 --> 12:57.040 I'm going to go back to my candy.

12:57.040 --> 12:58.040 Wait a minute.

12:58.040 --> 12:59.040 Where's my wrap?

12:59.040 --> 13:00.040 Don't overdo it.

13:00.040 --> 13:01.040 Don't overdo it.

13:01.040 --> 13:02.040 Paste yourself, George.

13:02.040 --> 13:03.040 Paste yourself.

13:03.040 --> 13:06.040 Well, I got to fit in my Santa outfit.

13:06.040 --> 13:07.040 Bye, everybody.

13:07.040 --> 13:08.040 Thanks, George.

13:08.040 --> 13:09.040 Bye.

Update from Ajia Moon (13:09)

13:09.040 --> 13:14.200 Well, that was fun to talk with George, but you know what, guys?

13:14.200 --> 13:19.160 We actually have another guest joining us for this episode.

13:19.160 --> 13:21.040 You guys may remember Ajia.

13:21.040 --> 13:23.840 Asia, you've been on the show a couple of times before.

13:23.840 --> 13:25.080 Thanks for joining us again.

13:25.080 --> 13:26.200 Thanks for having me back.

13:26.200 --> 13:29.360 So remind our listeners what you do.

13:29.360 --> 13:34.800 I've kind of gone to the moon and back since I spoke to you guys last.

13:34.800 --> 13:42.720 So I used to own a medical marijuana dispensary, and Canada changed the Cannabis Act in 2018,

13:42.720 --> 13:47.880 so we closed to work with the new laws in Canada.

13:47.880 --> 13:54.840 I also had to close my original magazine due to the new laws with advertising, and I spent

13:54.840 --> 14:00.200 a couple of years just watching the grass grow and figuring out what I would do next.

14:00.200 --> 14:05.920 I got bored of watching the grass grow, so I opened the magazine, and I'm back out there

14:05.920 --> 14:07.160 and doing my stuff.

14:07.160 --> 14:11.700 We had a huge event on Sunset Beach in Vancouver.

14:11.700 --> 14:17.680 We had a special guest, Mercurys, and Snack the Ripper, and Golden BSP join us on the

14:17.680 --> 14:19.720 beach for a free party.

14:19.720 --> 14:25.520 We had 1,500 people show up, and we're about to do the same thing again, but for $420 in

14:25.520 --> 14:26.520 Vancouver.

14:26.520 --> 14:31.320 Our artist lineup is crazy, and everyone gets to come for free yet again, and my magazine

14:31.320 --> 14:32.320 will be ready.

14:32.320 --> 14:33.320 Awesome.

14:33.320 --> 14:34.320 Cool.

14:34.320 --> 14:38.520 Well, you're a patron of the SGU, and we're glad to have you on the show this week.

14:38.520 --> 14:42.640 We're going to go through our news items, starting with a Quickie with Bob.

14:42.640 --> 14:43.640 All right.

14:43.640 --> 14:44.640 Thank you, Steve.

Quickie with Bob: Matter in Neutron Star Collisions (14:44)

• [link_URL TITLE]

14:44.640 --> 14:45.640 This is your Quickie with Bob.

14:45.640 --> 14:51.680 Hey, Eric, gird your loins, neutron stars are the second densest thing we know in the

14:51.680 --> 14:58.720 universe, being essentially, as its name implies, solid neutrons, but we don't know what even

14:58.720 --> 15:04.440 more exotic matter would appear when neutron stars collide, even though we can now directly

15:04.440 --> 15:07.640 detect the gravitational waves from such an event.

15:07.640 --> 15:09.800 What's happening on the neutron stars?

15:09.800 --> 15:12.640 What kind of weird things are created?

15:12.640 --> 15:17.480 A new model has been published in Physical Review X, which recently describes the use

15:17.480 --> 15:23.200 of nuclear physics models that have been extended, because those models cannot handle such high

15:23.200 --> 15:28.600 density events, but they've been extended to include a string theory technique.

15:28.600 --> 15:35.200 So doctors Demersic and Jarvinen said regarding this, our method uses a mathematical relationship

15:35.200 --> 15:40.180 found in string theory, namely the correspondence between five-dimensional black holes and strongly

15:40.180 --> 15:46.880 interacting matter to describe the phase transition between dense nuclear and quark matter.

15:46.880 --> 15:47.880 Five-dimensional black holes.

15:47.880 --> 15:49.400 I can picture that.

15:49.400 --> 15:54.400 Using this new model in computer simulations shows that not only what the gravitational

15:54.400 --> 15:59.000 waves would be like that were produced, but also that both hot and cold quark matter can

15:59.000 --> 16:01.880 be created by neutron star collisions.

16:01.880 --> 16:06.920 So next, obviously, is to compare this, that the model results to the real gravitational

16:06.920 --> 16:11.240 waves in the near future of colliding neutron stars, and I'm looking forward to it.

16:11.240 --> 16:14.640 This has been your Quickie with Bob, un-gird your loins, people, and I hope it was good

16:14.640 --> 16:15.640 for you, too.

16:15.640 --> 16:16.640 Thanks, Bob.

16:16.640 --> 16:17.640 That was quick.

16:17.640 --> 16:18.640 That went by very quickly.

16:18.640 --> 16:19.640 Yeah, yeah.

16:19.640 --> 16:20.640 It's called the Quickie.

16:20.640 --> 16:21.640 Very nice.

16:21.640 --> 16:22.640 Neutron stars are endlessly fascinating.

16:22.640 --> 16:23.640 They are.

16:23.640 --> 16:26.240 I'd rather see one up close than a black hole, actually.

16:26.240 --> 16:27.240 Yeah.

16:27.240 --> 16:28.240 Although not too close.

16:28.240 --> 16:29.240 Well, right.

16:29.240 --> 16:30.240 Closest.

16:30.240 --> 16:31.240 Yeah.

News Items

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Daylight Saving Time (16:31)

• Set Your Clocks Back Tonight—And No, Daylight Saving Time Isn't Going Away Yet

16:31.240 --> 16:32.240 All right.

16:32.240 --> 16:36.120 So, guys, this weekend is the end of daylight saving time.

16:36.120 --> 16:37.120 Oh, boy.

16:37.120 --> 16:38.120 Yeah, that's right.

16:38.120 --> 16:41.400 Asia, do you guys have daylight saving time in Canada?

16:41.400 --> 16:44.120 We do, but it's different depending on where you are.

16:44.120 --> 16:45.120 Oh, yeah?

16:45.120 --> 16:46.120 That's crazy.

16:46.120 --> 16:49.960 Meaning not all the territories or states observe it, or?

16:49.960 --> 16:50.960 Or the time when you do it is different.

16:50.960 --> 16:51.960 We do switch at different times.

16:51.960 --> 16:52.960 Ah.

16:52.960 --> 16:53.960 Yeah.

16:53.960 --> 16:54.960 You switch at different times.

16:54.960 --> 16:57.960 That has to be not confusing at all.

16:57.960 --> 16:58.960 Right.

16:58.960 --> 17:02.520 We've been trying to get rid of daylight saving time for a couple of reasons.

17:02.520 --> 17:06.800 The big one is that nobody knows how to pronounce it, and they say daylight savings time.

17:06.800 --> 17:14.280 But, Evan, tell us what's the update on the efforts to get rid of it.

17:14.280 --> 17:15.280 Yeah.

17:15.280 --> 17:17.680 So the efforts to get rid of it has made the news, of course, this week.

17:17.680 --> 17:23.480 There's lots of stories out there right now as it approaches this coming Sunday.

17:23.480 --> 17:28.400 You know it's called summer time in the United Kingdom and much of Europe, so if you ever

17:28.400 --> 17:34.480 have someone's summer time, and for those of you who don't know, this is when you advance

17:34.480 --> 17:40.800 your clocks during the warmer months so that darkness falls at a later clock time.

17:40.800 --> 17:46.480 And usually it's one hour difference in most cases around the planet, and in the spring

17:46.480 --> 17:51.000 you spring forward, and in autumn or the fall you fall back.

17:51.000 --> 17:54.940 That's how you're supposed to remember exactly how it works.

17:54.940 --> 18:00.060 So as a result, you have one of your days in the spring, it's a 23 hour day, and then

18:00.060 --> 18:05.360 you get one coming up this coming Sunday, it's going to be a 25 hour day.

18:05.360 --> 18:09.400 And here in the United States it's been in place for quite a while now.

18:09.400 --> 18:14.360 It's pretty much since the 1960s we've been using it regularly.

18:14.360 --> 18:21.100 There have been a few times in which they've used it in the 70s for full for the entire

18:21.100 --> 18:22.100 year.

18:22.100 --> 18:26.640 It had to do with daylight savings, it had to do with energy consumption in the 70s when

18:26.640 --> 18:30.840 there was energy issues going on with oil.

18:30.840 --> 18:35.800 Since then pretty much it's been spring forward and fall back.

18:35.800 --> 18:36.900 Every year we do this.

18:36.900 --> 18:38.440 Now a couple updates on this.

18:38.440 --> 18:44.440 Number one, as Steve as you alluded to, where are we now in getting this thing fixed?

18:44.440 --> 18:48.000 And by fixed I mean rid of it.

18:48.000 --> 18:54.160 So we've got the U.S. Senate, which back in March of this year they passed legislation

18:54.160 --> 18:59.960 that would make daylight saving time permanent starting with 2023.

18:59.960 --> 19:05.320 So essentially once we move into daylight saving time that starts in March of 2023 we'd

19:05.320 --> 19:07.000 never come off of it at that point.

19:07.000 --> 19:08.000 That would be it.

19:08.000 --> 19:09.000 We'd be locked into that.

19:09.000 --> 19:10.560 It'd be permanent summertime.

19:10.560 --> 19:11.560 Yep.

19:11.560 --> 19:16.280 So the Senate has passed that and they passed it unanimously by the way, which is you know

19:16.280 --> 19:19.040 that's- That never happens.

19:19.040 --> 19:20.320 That almost never happens.

19:20.320 --> 19:21.640 It was by acclimation, right?

19:21.640 --> 19:24.240 I mean it's not like it was a formal vote.

19:24.240 --> 19:29.600 No it wasn't really a formal vote it was a voice vote but it does, it counts.

19:29.600 --> 19:31.000 So that's part of it.

19:31.000 --> 19:37.880 But in our system of government in order to get this law passed it has to pass both houses

19:37.880 --> 19:44.440 or both branches of the legislative branch, both chambers and the other is the House of

19:44.440 --> 19:45.440 Representatives.

19:45.440 --> 19:50.080 So over in the House of Representatives it's being held.

19:50.080 --> 19:55.560 Held at desk is the term and it's being held by a subcommittee, the Subcommittee on Consumer

19:55.560 --> 20:01.320 Protection and Commerce, which is a subcommittee under the Energy and Commerce Committee, House

20:01.320 --> 20:03.140 Resolution 69.

20:03.140 --> 20:08.780 Now they're saying that the reason that it's held up there is that they're not sure how

20:08.780 --> 20:11.560 to move forward with it, trying to figure it out.

20:11.560 --> 20:17.160 They agree it's a good idea to settle on something and make it permanent in some way.

20:17.160 --> 20:20.600 But they haven't found a consensus yet on the best way to do it.

20:20.600 --> 20:25.400 Do you lock into the daylight saving mode in which you get the extra hour of light in

20:25.400 --> 20:30.160 the evenings or are you going to go to standard time, are you going to lock in there, in which

20:30.160 --> 20:33.080 that extra hour of daylight will occur during the morning hours?

20:33.080 --> 20:38.440 See they are saying that we haven't been able- This is Frank Pallone who's the U.S. Representative

20:38.440 --> 20:41.500 and Chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee.

20:41.500 --> 20:44.040 We haven't been able to find consensus in the House on this yet.

20:44.040 --> 20:47.760 There are a broad variety of opinions about whether to keep the status quo or to move

20:47.760 --> 20:50.760 to a permanent time and if so, what time that should be.

20:50.760 --> 20:54.580 We don't want to make a hasty change and then have it reversed several years later after

20:54.580 --> 20:59.400 public opinion turns against it, which is what happened when they tried it out in the

20:59.400 --> 21:00.400 70s.

21:00.400 --> 21:02.660 So he says those are the concerns there.

21:02.660 --> 21:07.360 So I don't know that we're really going to see anything solid on this, at least certainly

21:07.360 --> 21:12.760 not in time, I don't think in time for the 2023 year and I have no idea what that does

21:12.760 --> 21:15.880 to the Senate bill, if that means that has to go back and they have to revote on that,

21:15.880 --> 21:17.440 who the heck knows.

21:17.440 --> 21:24.720 But we've talked about this before on the show and we have some differing opinions kind

21:24.720 --> 21:28.220 of on this, at least we've expressed it in the past.

21:28.220 --> 21:31.280 By the way, here's Bob, this is for you.

21:31.280 --> 21:34.560 At two o'clock in the morning this coming Sunday, we're going to go back to one o'clock,

21:34.560 --> 21:35.560 right?

21:35.560 --> 21:36.560 That's how it works.

21:36.560 --> 21:38.480 On that Sunday, it goes back to one.

21:38.480 --> 21:43.020 That means we're going to have a pair of 1 a.m.s. at the same day, right?

21:43.020 --> 21:52.520 And that's 60 duplicate minutes, that's 3600 more seconds and five quadrillion, 600 trillion

21:52.520 --> 21:53.520 additional picoseconds.

21:53.520 --> 21:54.520 Ooh, nice.

21:54.520 --> 21:55.520 So Bob, that's for you.

21:55.520 --> 21:56.520 Well done, well done.

21:56.520 --> 21:57.520 Thank you.

21:57.520 --> 21:58.520 Thank you very much.

21:58.520 --> 22:02.320 And you know that, hey, those are precious picoseconds of life, if you ask me.

22:02.320 --> 22:03.320 Precious.

22:03.320 --> 22:07.980 If you think about it that way, during a person's life, if they happen to die during daylight

22:07.980 --> 22:11.920 saving, they're going to lose five quadrillion, 600 trillion picoseconds.

22:11.920 --> 22:15.000 So I don't think that's necessarily a trivial thing.

22:15.000 --> 22:18.420 Now there's some more news about daylight saving.

22:18.420 --> 22:22.000 There are some new studies that are out and they have to do, well, one has to do with

22:22.000 --> 22:25.280 sleep and the other has to do with accidents.

22:25.280 --> 22:26.840 Sleep interference is bad.

22:26.840 --> 22:32.920 Well, we all agree on that and I think there are many, many studies that have revealed

22:32.920 --> 22:37.200 this, and more studies have confirmed this.

22:37.200 --> 22:41.880 And you know, certainly children need lots of sleep and they are perhaps the worst at

22:41.880 --> 22:46.040 adapting to sudden changes in those kinds of routines, especially when it comes to sleep.

22:46.040 --> 22:51.500 Again, there have been studies published, more recently a 2019 study published in the

22:51.500 --> 22:52.640 Journal of Sleep.

22:52.640 --> 22:58.320 They found that changes in the clock usually result in a loss of sleep for kids and they

22:58.320 --> 23:02.800 have longer and greater disruptions happening among infants and young kids.

23:02.800 --> 23:06.020 So the younger you are, apparently the worse it is for you.

23:06.020 --> 23:08.400 It can affect children's sleep badly.

23:08.400 --> 23:13.640 In some cases, seven to 28 days they could take to adjust to that time change, a one

23:13.640 --> 23:19.860 hour time for a child could take up to almost a month for them to be able to adjust.

23:19.860 --> 23:21.860 So that's not trivial.

23:21.860 --> 23:26.680 And they say to help offset that, what you should do is in the days leading up to the

23:26.680 --> 23:31.680 change, you change everybody's bedtime accordingly to make that adjustment.

23:31.680 --> 23:32.960 And you do it by 30 minutes.

23:32.960 --> 23:34.360 You don't do it by the full hour.

23:34.360 --> 23:35.820 So it doesn't seem so severe.

23:35.820 --> 23:38.520 It's more of a gradual ease into it.

23:38.520 --> 23:42.840 But then there's this other study that came out just not too long ago.

23:42.840 --> 23:44.880 This was late August or early September.

23:44.880 --> 23:50.040 In PLOS One, this was reported, sleep loss leads to the withdrawal of human helping across

23:50.040 --> 23:54.680 individuals, across groups, and large scale societies.

23:54.680 --> 24:00.460 And they specifically reference daylight saving time as one of those reasons, especially at

24:00.460 --> 24:02.540 the large scale level.

24:02.540 --> 24:07.280 And of these studies, they said, we demonstrate that one hour of lost sleep opportunity inflicted

24:07.280 --> 24:12.640 by the transition to daylight saving time reduces real world altruistic helping through

24:12.640 --> 24:15.360 the act of donation giving.

24:15.360 --> 24:20.480 And they established it through the analysis of over three million charitable donations.

24:20.480 --> 24:25.760 The other studies that they did with this, it triggers the withdrawal of help from one

24:25.760 --> 24:27.520 individual to another.

24:27.520 --> 24:31.880 And the FMRI findings revealed that the withdrawal of human helping is associated with deactivation

24:31.880 --> 24:38.440 of key nodes within the social cognition brain network that facilitates willingness to help

24:38.440 --> 24:40.040 others.

24:40.040 --> 24:45.080 And they said it also at another study at a group level, the night to night reductions

24:45.080 --> 24:49.160 in sleep across several nights predict corresponding next day reductions in the choice to help

24:49.160 --> 24:52.120 others during day to day interactions.

24:52.120 --> 24:57.480 So yeah, they're saying that here we go, daylight saving time again.

24:57.480 --> 24:59.160 Ben Simon was the lead author on this.

24:59.160 --> 25:02.880 He says, this is actually the first study to show that there is an impact on people's

25:02.880 --> 25:07.240 generosity and pro social behavior following daylight saving time.

25:07.240 --> 25:11.400 It's just more evidence of the importance of sleep on people's behavior.

25:11.400 --> 25:14.760 Brain areas that are typically active when we think about what other people might want

25:14.760 --> 25:20.800 or need were significantly less active following a night of lost sleep directly tied in one

25:20.800 --> 25:22.080 of these studies to daylight saving.

25:22.080 --> 25:23.080 Yeah.

25:23.080 --> 25:24.720 So basically we're grumpy when we don't get enough sleep.

25:24.720 --> 25:25.720 Yeah.

25:25.720 --> 25:32.040 And less willing to help others, it puts us into a different state.

25:32.040 --> 25:33.040 Yeah, definitely.

25:33.040 --> 25:34.040 This is so complicated.

25:34.040 --> 25:36.680 So I don't think there's no consensus on this.

25:36.680 --> 25:41.200 About a third of people want to keep it the way it is, a third want permanent DSA and

25:41.200 --> 25:46.080 a third want permanent standard time, you know, it's a little bit more for the standard

25:46.080 --> 25:50.800 time, but it shifts from year to year, the survey, but it's basically a third, a third

25:50.800 --> 25:51.800 and a third.

25:51.800 --> 25:54.720 So that's why no matter what you do, someone's going to complain.

25:54.720 --> 25:58.040 You know, if we make a change, people are going to complain, just kind of ignore them.

25:58.040 --> 26:01.160 Just have to decide what the one's best and just go with it and let people complain until

26:01.160 --> 26:02.720 we all stop complaining about it.

26:02.720 --> 26:05.960 I think there's no question that changing is bad, right?

26:05.960 --> 26:11.920 Going back and forth between the two has its own problems, increased accidents, loss of

26:11.920 --> 26:13.080 sleep, et cetera.

26:13.080 --> 26:17.740 But the data on what's better, permanent daylight saving time or permanent standard time is

26:17.740 --> 26:21.600 mixed and it's just like, it's a pick your poison kind of thing.

26:21.600 --> 26:27.880 The sleep specialists all say that that standard time is better, that daylight because it matches

26:27.880 --> 26:31.920 the circadian rhythm to the light, you know, the sun cycle better.

26:31.920 --> 26:35.440 Depending on where you live, that doesn't necessarily apply.

26:35.440 --> 26:38.680 Of course, this depends, this is hugely, hugely regionally.

26:38.680 --> 26:44.520 And yeah, because I lived up in the Yukon for about six months and it goes from like

26:44.520 --> 26:51.760 12 to 12 to 10 to 14, all of a sudden you're in 22 hour days during the summer and then

26:51.760 --> 26:55.920 it just right into winter and it's really, yeah, I don't think, I don't think adjusting

26:55.920 --> 26:59.700 by an hour is going to do a whole lot for you in that situation.

26:59.700 --> 27:03.520 And that's, that's really the question though, right, Steve, like obviously the permanent,

27:03.520 --> 27:08.640 the permanentness, it might have some difference if it's an hour forward, an hour back, but

27:08.640 --> 27:10.440 isn't the main problem, the changing?

27:10.440 --> 27:11.440 Yeah.

27:11.440 --> 27:13.960 Well, as I said, the changing is definitely a problem.

27:13.960 --> 27:14.960 There's no question about that.

27:14.960 --> 27:15.960 Yeah.

27:15.960 --> 27:20.240 But if you get to which, which one should be permanent, it's a mixed bag.

27:20.240 --> 27:25.000 You know, it sounds like for the sleep scientist say you're better, you know, from a medical

27:25.000 --> 27:29.760 point of view, you're better off having standard time, but that assumes of course that we don't

27:29.760 --> 27:32.120 adjust our like school starting time.

27:32.120 --> 27:37.120 See, I think we should go to permanent DST and make school start an hour later.

27:37.120 --> 27:40.920 A lot of people already have flex time in terms of when they start their day, but you

27:40.920 --> 27:44.360 know, for work, but we could make that more standard.

27:44.360 --> 27:45.360 There's some interesting things.

27:45.360 --> 27:46.360 I just did a deep dive on this.

27:46.360 --> 27:47.500 Why I have all this loaded up.

27:47.500 --> 27:52.960 So one thing is, um, economically it's all better DST has advantages cause there's basically

27:52.960 --> 27:55.840 more economic activity happening in the early evening.

27:55.840 --> 27:59.000 Then that's why it's been extended like it used to be six months out of the year.

27:59.000 --> 28:03.360 Now in the U S now it's eight months out of the year because of the candy lobby for Halloween

28:03.360 --> 28:09.680 and the golf course lobby and you know, barbecue supplies, like all these things and those

28:09.680 --> 28:14.320 activities are increases with DST.

28:14.320 --> 28:21.280 The other thing is DST matches better with solar power and energy use.

28:21.280 --> 28:26.320 So if we, if we want to maximize solar power, DST is better.

28:26.320 --> 28:32.800 I just saw a study today that DST matches better with deer, um, which you might not

28:32.800 --> 28:34.200 think, Oh, who cares what the deer want.

28:34.200 --> 28:35.200 Right.

28:35.200 --> 28:42.680 But the studies showed that by going to permanent DST would reduce 36,550 deer deaths, 33 human

28:42.680 --> 28:50.360 deaths, 2054 human injuries, and $1.19 billion in costs from hitting deer on the roadways.

28:50.360 --> 28:56.280 Do you have something like the second most lethal animal in America or something like

28:56.280 --> 28:57.280 that?

28:57.280 --> 28:58.280 I don't know.

28:58.280 --> 28:59.280 I don't know about that statistically.

28:59.280 --> 29:00.280 I've hit three.

29:00.280 --> 29:01.280 I've hit one.

29:01.280 --> 29:02.280 Oh my gosh.

29:02.280 --> 29:03.280 No, I've never.

29:03.280 --> 29:04.280 I've yet to hit one.

29:04.280 --> 29:05.280 Thank goodness.

29:05.280 --> 29:08.920 It's incredible that we have that much data about what goes on in the world.

29:08.920 --> 29:12.920 You know, every one of these gets reported as a, as a, to insurance companies, right?

29:12.920 --> 29:15.200 That's probably why we have so much data on it.

29:15.200 --> 29:19.360 And the original reason, the original, we, this was a world war one time idea.

29:19.360 --> 29:23.000 Let's let's go to DS DST in order to save energy.

29:23.000 --> 29:28.640 It saves about 1% for lighting, but if you include a heating, it flips the other way.

29:28.640 --> 29:33.200 So it's, it's more of a mixed bag again, if you include total energy, not just energy

29:33.200 --> 29:34.660 for lighting.

29:34.660 --> 29:37.300 So you know, it's basically a mixed bag.

29:37.300 --> 29:42.320 We just should pick one so that we don't have to change, adjust to it if we need to and

29:42.320 --> 29:43.320 go on with our lives.

29:43.320 --> 29:44.320 Yeah.

29:44.320 --> 29:46.360 Universally, the change is what's the worst part of all.

29:46.360 --> 29:47.360 Yeah, exactly.

29:47.360 --> 29:48.360 You have to make the change.

29:48.360 --> 29:49.360 Okay.

29:49.360 --> 29:50.360 All right.

29:50.360 --> 29:51.360 Let's go on.

Humans Working With Robots (29:51)

• Tracking trust in human-robot work interactions

29:51.360 --> 29:54.800 Jay, are we getting close to having humans and robots working together?

29:54.800 --> 29:56.640 Steve, it's already happening.

29:56.640 --> 29:57.640 Is it?

29:57.640 --> 29:58.640 Oh yeah.

29:58.640 --> 30:03.080 There's, there's, there's lots of companies out there that have some type of automation

30:03.080 --> 30:05.220 robot doing some work.

30:05.220 --> 30:09.880 You know, what's happening is more and more industries are starting to utilize robots

30:09.880 --> 30:12.800 to do a huge variety of jobs.

30:12.800 --> 30:16.920 And you know, we have humans and robots, they they're working together.

30:16.920 --> 30:22.280 And if they work together correctly and if things are optimized, this can, can have a

30:22.280 --> 30:25.280 significant improvement on manufacturing processes.

30:25.280 --> 30:28.920 It could save time, it could save labor, it could save, you know, costs, everything.

30:28.920 --> 30:30.320 It's just a really good thing.

30:30.320 --> 30:35.520 And this of course means that more people are finding that they have to work alongside

30:35.520 --> 30:36.520 some type of robot.

30:36.520 --> 30:39.000 You know, it's, it's just starting to happen.

30:39.000 --> 30:44.180 Companies need to make sure that their workers can effectively work alongside robots of course.

30:44.180 --> 30:48.560 And ideally companies can help make the experience of working with robots positive for their

30:48.560 --> 30:49.560 workers.

30:49.560 --> 30:53.040 They don't want it to be like, you know, have this horrible negative experience that happens

30:53.040 --> 30:54.200 every day while they're at work.

30:54.200 --> 30:56.060 They want it to be as seamless as possible.

30:56.060 --> 30:57.060 They want it to be safe.

30:57.060 --> 31:01.640 There's lots of factors that they, you know, apply here, but a key factor is that humans

31:01.640 --> 31:05.840 need to develop trust for their robot coworkers.

31:05.840 --> 31:09.080 And if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.

31:09.080 --> 31:14.920 You know, a human has to be able to accept what the machine is doing and be able to work

31:14.920 --> 31:15.920 alongside it.

31:15.920 --> 31:19.600 And a big factor in there is the idea that they have to have, simply have to have trust

31:19.600 --> 31:21.400 for the work that it's doing.

31:21.400 --> 31:27.320 And if companies can establish trust in robotic workers, the quality and safety can easily

31:27.320 --> 31:28.320 improve.

31:28.320 --> 31:32.200 So trust is actually critical for a shared human and robot workspace to actually function

31:32.200 --> 31:37.500 and, you know, in the first place, like there is already this issue of whether or not some

31:37.500 --> 31:41.680 companies that, you know, employees of companies have trust in the robotics that are happening

31:41.680 --> 31:42.680 there.

31:42.680 --> 31:48.060 So I think we should distinguish between robots that have been working in factories for decades

31:48.060 --> 31:54.000 now would be like, say, like car manufacturers where they've got a zone that you humans aren't

31:54.000 --> 31:55.000 allowed.

31:55.000 --> 31:56.000 We're not talking about that, right?

31:56.000 --> 32:00.000 We're talking about close proximity with no swinging arms that's going to take your head

32:00.000 --> 32:01.000 off.

32:01.000 --> 32:02.000 Yeah.

32:02.000 --> 32:03.000 I'll get into that, Bob.

32:03.000 --> 32:05.080 I'll get more into details about what kind of robot we're talking about.

32:05.080 --> 32:11.360 But in this study that I'm about to tell you about, there's a robot called the UR-10 collaborative

32:11.360 --> 32:12.360 robot.

32:12.360 --> 32:18.640 And it's essentially a robot arm that has five points of articulation that, you know,

32:18.640 --> 32:20.700 isn't that much bigger than a human arm.

32:20.700 --> 32:24.420 But it could just spin and do different, you know, it can move in many different ways.

32:24.420 --> 32:30.520 So in Human Factors, the Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, researchers

32:30.520 --> 32:35.820 at the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Texas A&M University are trying

32:35.820 --> 32:41.520 to figure out how human behavior is affected by robots and having them present in the workspace.

32:41.520 --> 32:46.760 So for example, when humans get fatigued, and this is counterintuitive to me, at least

32:46.760 --> 32:52.000 when humans get fatigued and or stressed out at work, they become more trusting of the

32:52.000 --> 32:54.240 robots they work alongside.

32:54.240 --> 32:56.200 And just think about that for a second.

32:56.200 --> 32:57.200 That's pretty interesting.

32:57.200 --> 32:58.200 Right.

32:58.200 --> 33:02.440 You know, when they get tired, well, we'll begin to trust the robots that are that are

33:02.440 --> 33:07.800 working alongside them more, you'd think maybe the opposite of that, but that's not the case.

33:07.800 --> 33:08.920 And look, I'm too tired.

33:08.920 --> 33:09.920 You do it.

33:09.920 --> 33:11.640 Yeah, maybe that's it.

33:11.640 --> 33:13.200 That's a simple explanation.

33:13.200 --> 33:19.720 So using functional near infrared spectroscopy on 16 test subjects, researchers looked at

33:19.720 --> 33:22.160 their brain activity during the test.

33:22.160 --> 33:28.080 And particularly they looked at brain activation, connectivity, subjective responses and performance

33:28.080 --> 33:30.120 were measured throughout this study.

33:30.120 --> 33:35.040 They were they were studying the brains of the test subjects to see what kind of responses

33:35.040 --> 33:40.480 that they were having to having the robotic worker work near them next to them with them.

33:40.480 --> 33:43.840 And most importantly, they did something really interesting.

33:43.840 --> 33:47.880 So they wanted to know how the test subjects, you know, how their trusting behaviors were

33:47.880 --> 33:51.800 affected as they interacted and worked with the UR-10 collaborative robot.

33:51.800 --> 33:55.240 Now, and like I said, this robot has five points of articulation, it could do a lot

33:55.240 --> 33:59.080 of really, really good, very precise types of movements.

33:59.080 --> 34:03.640 So what they did was they varied the robot's reliability and the robot's level of assistance

34:03.640 --> 34:04.640 during the test.

34:04.640 --> 34:10.080 Now, when I say the robot's reliability, the robots would make mistakes deliberately, right?

34:10.080 --> 34:14.880 The people, the researchers were deliberately having the robot's reliability go down and

34:14.880 --> 34:19.960 then they tested the test subjects to see what was going on in their brain.

34:19.960 --> 34:20.960 And check this out.

34:20.960 --> 34:26.440 Here's a quote from the study, significantly increased neural activation was observed in

34:26.440 --> 34:33.280 response to faulty robot behavior within the medial and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex

34:33.280 --> 34:34.640 PFC.

34:34.640 --> 34:39.880 A similar trend was observed for the anterior PFC, primary motor cortex and primary visual

34:39.880 --> 34:41.040 cortex.

34:41.040 --> 34:45.680 Faulty robot behavior also resulted in reduced functional connectivity strengths throughout

34:45.680 --> 34:46.680 the brain.

34:46.680 --> 34:48.440 Steve, what did I just read?

34:48.440 --> 34:52.080 First of all, you know, this is an fMRI study, I'm assuming, right?

34:52.080 --> 34:58.240 I mean, you always got to take those with a grain of salt because there's a high noise,

34:58.240 --> 35:00.720 you know, factor in them.

35:00.720 --> 35:01.720 You know what I mean?

35:01.720 --> 35:03.760 It's like an average of an average.

35:03.760 --> 35:05.680 And they're also usually super low ends.

35:05.680 --> 35:06.680 Yeah.

35:06.680 --> 35:08.960 You're just looking at like a random, like a very, very small sampling.

35:08.960 --> 35:14.320 But if we assume that that's correct, they're just saying, oh yeah, these frontal lobe parts

35:14.320 --> 35:19.560 of the brain are, they're more active when the robot makes mistakes.

35:19.560 --> 35:21.840 Is that what, is that the bottom line?

35:21.840 --> 35:22.840 Yeah.

35:22.840 --> 35:27.920 So the researchers found that when the robot made an error, that the test subjects trust

35:27.920 --> 35:28.920 in the robot lowered.

35:28.920 --> 35:33.680 So when the test subject was in a lower state of trust for the robot coworker, parts of

35:33.680 --> 35:35.240 their brain began to work harder.

35:35.240 --> 35:36.880 And this is the part that I find fascinating.

35:36.880 --> 35:37.880 That makes sense, right?

35:37.880 --> 35:39.920 You know, like, okay, they have to pay attention more.

35:39.920 --> 35:43.080 Now they have to monitor what the robot's doing there.

35:43.080 --> 35:46.880 Part of trust, this does also, I think it's back to like when they're tired, they trust

35:46.880 --> 35:47.880 more.

35:47.880 --> 35:51.520 Lack of trust is a high mental energy state, right?

35:51.520 --> 35:55.720 And trust is like permission to like go to a lower mental energy state.

35:55.720 --> 35:57.120 I trust you're going to do this.

35:57.120 --> 35:58.660 I can relax.

35:58.660 --> 35:59.660 You don't trust somebody.

35:59.660 --> 36:00.660 You can't relax.

36:00.660 --> 36:02.120 You've got to be, you know, looking over their shoulder.

36:02.120 --> 36:05.220 So that makes basic sense, I guess.

36:05.220 --> 36:09.240 So as they like, let me give you a, for instance, they, they lower the accuracy of what the

36:09.240 --> 36:11.180 robot arm is doing.

36:11.180 --> 36:17.080 And what they found was this translated into more brain activity, which increased the test

36:17.080 --> 36:20.920 subjects workload because they began to compensate for the faulty robot.

36:20.920 --> 36:25.020 So again, you know, on the opposite side of this, when the robots performed well, these

36:25.020 --> 36:26.800 brain regions worked well together.

36:26.800 --> 36:32.800 So, you know, what we're seeing is that the test subjects were showing a fatigue.

36:32.800 --> 36:36.700 They were more fatigued and they were working at a higher level of stress when the robot

36:36.700 --> 36:38.520 wasn't working as efficiently.

36:38.520 --> 36:44.120 So it does have an emotional impact on human workers when and if the robots weren't working

36:44.120 --> 36:45.900 in an optimal way.

36:45.900 --> 36:50.480 So that might seem obvious, but it is something that they were able to prove.

36:50.480 --> 36:54.300 And because they're studying the brain and studying which parts of the brain are lighting

36:54.300 --> 37:00.400 up during these very specific moments, it gives them, it teaches them where to look

37:00.400 --> 37:04.260 in the future for more clues about a human response.

37:04.260 --> 37:08.240 And if you, if you think about it, you know, because so many people are going to be working

37:08.240 --> 37:13.280 with robots and interacting with robots and at some point even talking to robots, you

37:13.280 --> 37:18.760 know, this is a very early study, but we need to study human robot interaction in general.

37:18.760 --> 37:24.080 If you think about it, we need to optimize the way robots handle working with human beings

37:24.080 --> 37:28.120 in the way that we respond to the, to them working in our space.

37:28.120 --> 37:32.440 So it's a very complicated situation, but I find it to be really fascinating because

37:32.440 --> 37:37.960 we're right at the beginning guys of, of robots really starting to go into many different

37:37.960 --> 37:41.060 industries and, and you know, they're going to proliferate.

37:41.060 --> 37:43.320 They're going to, they're starting to show up everywhere.

37:43.320 --> 37:49.820 What I want to know though, Jay, is what's the difference between a robot coworker making

37:49.820 --> 37:52.720 an error and a human coworker making an error?

37:52.720 --> 37:53.720 Maybe it's the same.

37:53.720 --> 37:54.720 Yeah.

37:54.720 --> 37:55.720 They were, I agree.

37:55.720 --> 37:56.800 And they were, they studied that.

37:56.800 --> 38:01.400 They studied humans as well, like human and humans working together.

38:01.400 --> 38:03.400 And were they fine?

38:03.400 --> 38:07.360 Well, from what I read, it seemed to be very similar to the response to the robot.

38:07.360 --> 38:08.360 Yeah.

38:08.360 --> 38:12.880 So I was going to say the through line here might be that people react the same to working

38:12.880 --> 38:16.120 with a robot as they do with a human, right?

38:16.120 --> 38:20.760 And as far as at least that is concerned that they will trust a robot, but that trust will

38:20.760 --> 38:25.620 go down when the robot makes mistakes, just like you would read same way you would respond

38:25.620 --> 38:31.160 to a human coworker, which is what I think, you know, my take on the totality of this

38:31.160 --> 38:36.060 research is that, yeah, people will treat robots like people, you know, as long as they

38:36.060 --> 38:37.060 act like people.

38:37.060 --> 38:38.160 They'll be treated like people.

38:38.160 --> 38:40.120 The fact that they're a machine makes no difference.

38:40.120 --> 38:44.800 See, they did say that if you put googly eyes on the robot arm, that it could anger some

38:44.800 --> 38:45.800 people.

38:45.800 --> 38:46.800 Yeah.

38:46.800 --> 38:47.800 That could.

38:47.800 --> 38:48.800 Yeah.

38:48.800 --> 38:49.800 But how cool is this, guys?

38:49.800 --> 38:54.560 I mean, we are, we are studying people's brains to see how they react to working with a robot.

38:54.560 --> 38:55.560 I just love that.

38:55.560 --> 38:56.560 Yeah.

38:56.560 --> 39:01.720 I mean, there's, there's a lot of angles to this research, making robot faces be expressive,

39:01.720 --> 39:06.560 have emotion, you know, having softer robot parts so they could interact in human spaces

39:06.560 --> 39:07.560 more.

39:07.560 --> 39:11.720 So I think this is just one piece of a much bigger puzzle, you know, in terms of robots

39:11.720 --> 39:12.720 in human spaces.

39:12.720 --> 39:13.720 Right.

39:13.720 --> 39:14.720 Yeah.

39:14.720 --> 39:18.440 As Bob was saying, having hard robots on factory floors where people don't go, that's different.

39:18.440 --> 39:19.440 That's easy.

39:19.440 --> 39:20.440 We've been doing that for decades.

39:20.440 --> 39:24.160 But like having a robot in your house, that's a totally different kettle of fish.

39:24.160 --> 39:28.400 Well, just to make it perfectly clear, Steve, this was a collaboration workspace.

39:28.400 --> 39:31.920 Like they had to work together, like they had to, they were touching the same parts.

39:31.920 --> 39:35.720 They had to hand things off to each other and do, you know, some coordinated movements.

39:35.720 --> 39:36.720 Totally.

39:36.720 --> 39:37.720 Yeah.

39:37.720 --> 39:40.400 So that I could, I could really see how fatiguing that would be.

39:40.400 --> 39:45.240 Imagine, you know, you're working an eight hour shift and the robot is, is having problems

39:45.240 --> 39:46.560 over and over and over again.

39:46.560 --> 39:49.120 You'd get to the point where you want to pull your hair out, you know?

39:49.120 --> 39:50.120 Yeah.

39:50.120 --> 39:51.120 All right.

39:51.120 --> 39:52.120 Thanks, Jay.

Lottery Miracle (39:52)

• No Lottery Miracle

39:52.120 --> 39:54.840 So guys, have you heard, Evan, you sent this to everybody, but you've read the article

39:54.840 --> 39:58.440 or heard about the lottery miracle that happened earlier this week.

39:58.440 --> 40:02.160 Well, there was a miracle or maybe it was last week.

40:02.160 --> 40:03.160 Yep.

40:03.160 --> 40:04.160 Yeah.

40:04.160 --> 40:08.080 So tell me what, tell me what logical fallacy this is.

40:08.080 --> 40:10.800 Here is the headline of the New York post.

40:10.800 --> 40:13.200 Now I know the New York post is a rag.

40:13.200 --> 40:19.040 You don't have to tell me a high quality, uh, journal Alexander Hamilton founded the

40:19.040 --> 40:20.040 New York post.

40:20.040 --> 40:21.200 What are you talking about?

40:21.200 --> 40:22.200 We love that.

40:22.200 --> 40:23.200 Whatever.

40:23.200 --> 40:26.120 But all of the local news had basically the same reporting, right?

40:26.120 --> 40:28.600 This was just the local news reported it this way.

40:28.600 --> 40:32.920 It hit the national news, but with all the local news reporting, this is the way it was

40:32.920 --> 40:33.920 reported.

40:33.920 --> 40:42.040 So here's the New York post headline, one in 331 billion chance, same New York lottery

40:42.040 --> 40:44.680 numbers drawn twice in one day.

40:44.680 --> 40:45.680 Oh, wow.

40:45.680 --> 40:46.680 You guys think about that.

40:46.680 --> 40:47.680 That happened.

40:47.680 --> 40:50.680 I've never heard of that.

40:50.680 --> 40:52.520 It did happen.

40:52.520 --> 40:56.040 What do you think about the one in 331 billion chance of that happening?

40:56.040 --> 40:57.040 That seems pretty remarkable.

40:57.040 --> 41:00.680 Well, I mean, how many, how many times, I mean, it's a law of large numbers, right?

41:00.680 --> 41:03.720 I mean, you have a lot of lottery numbers are being pulled.

41:03.720 --> 41:07.180 All the time, all over the country, although in many countries.

41:07.180 --> 41:12.680 So the chance is one place doing the same number twice is not as crazy as you might

41:12.680 --> 41:13.680 think.

41:13.680 --> 41:15.200 Do you think there are billions of lottery draws?

41:15.200 --> 41:16.200 No, there's not.

41:16.200 --> 41:20.840 And it is, you know, a hell of a coincidence if it happened and it's a five number system

41:20.840 --> 41:25.560 at one through, Oh, what's the 38, I think it's 39, it goes to 39.

41:25.560 --> 41:26.800 So numbers one through 39.

41:26.800 --> 41:31.200 So, well, here's the, all right, so it's actually not a big deal at all.

41:31.200 --> 41:34.440 And the 331 billion is wrong.

41:34.440 --> 41:35.720 It's straight up wrong.

41:35.720 --> 41:37.000 They lied to me.

41:37.000 --> 41:38.000 So all right.

41:38.000 --> 41:42.820 So as Evan says, a five number system, the chance of getting any particular sequence

41:42.820 --> 41:43.880 of numbers, right?

41:43.880 --> 41:52.300 So, or the chance of winning with a single ticket is one in 575,757, right?

41:52.300 --> 41:55.520 So the chance of drawing the same number twice in a row is what?

41:55.520 --> 41:56.520 It's the same.

41:56.520 --> 41:57.520 It's the same.

41:57.520 --> 42:03.560 So the chance of winning with a single ticket is one in 575,757, the first number could

42:03.560 --> 42:04.560 be anything.

42:04.560 --> 42:08.840 It's the chance of the second number matching the first number.

42:08.840 --> 42:09.840 That's it.

42:09.840 --> 42:11.080 That's the probability.

42:11.080 --> 42:15.400 So the 331 billion is calculating it for both numbers, right?

42:15.400 --> 42:21.120 You would have had to place a bet if you were, if you bet for both numbers ahead of time,

42:21.120 --> 42:25.800 that's the 331 billion, but just the fact that, so the other thing, right?

42:25.800 --> 42:26.800 So that's wrong.

42:26.800 --> 42:27.800 They're saying it was a one.

42:27.800 --> 42:34.120 They said, but experts told us, so experts took out their calculator, squared 575,757

42:34.120 --> 42:37.200 and came up with a number, but that's absolutely wrong.

42:37.200 --> 42:38.200 So what's the fallacy?

42:38.200 --> 42:45.740 Well, it's really the expert fallacy really obvious when you think about it, really obvious

42:45.740 --> 42:55.520 when you think about it, but the lottery fallacy, the lottery fallacy, that was another trick.

42:55.520 --> 43:00.920 First the New York Post, then Steve, I can't take this because they're calculating the

43:00.920 --> 43:06.880 odds of those numbers coming up rather than any numbers coming up, right?

43:06.880 --> 43:13.840 So but it's even a little worse than that because they're deciding on the pattern after

43:13.840 --> 43:14.840 the fact, right?

43:14.840 --> 43:16.600 So there's a sort of little bit of post hoc thing.

43:16.600 --> 43:21.660 So for example, would they have reported this if the numbers came up twice in a row, even

43:21.660 --> 43:23.600 if they weren't both in the same day?

43:23.600 --> 43:24.600 Of course they would.

43:24.600 --> 43:25.600 Right?

43:25.600 --> 43:30.840 The reason why we tend to see a lot of coincidences is because we are retrofitting, like we're

43:30.840 --> 43:33.800 deciding what the pattern is after we see it, right?

43:33.800 --> 43:34.800 We love pattern seeking.

43:34.800 --> 43:35.800 It's like we do it with dice.

43:35.800 --> 43:36.800 Yeah.

43:36.800 --> 43:37.800 What are the odds?

43:37.800 --> 43:38.800 I rolled a seven three times in a row.

43:38.800 --> 43:39.800 The same as the odds of rolling anything.

43:39.800 --> 43:40.800 Yeah, right.

43:40.800 --> 43:47.960 In this case, you could say, well, you know, it doesn't have to be two numbers coming up

43:47.960 --> 43:48.960 in the same day.

43:48.960 --> 43:51.320 It could just be two in a row.

43:51.320 --> 43:55.120 So this is a daily seven days a week, twice a day lottery.

43:55.120 --> 44:00.500 So it's literally 365 opportunities for this to happen every year.

44:00.500 --> 44:07.420 So in 10 years, in 10 years, the odds of this happening, one in 157.

44:07.420 --> 44:08.420 Not that big.

44:08.420 --> 44:09.420 No.

44:09.420 --> 44:12.040 One in 131 billion.

44:12.040 --> 44:14.040 It's really one in 157.

44:14.040 --> 44:18.880 If you consider like if this should happen once every, you know, whatever, a few decades.

44:18.880 --> 44:24.360 The other thing is there are 180 lotteries in the world, right?

44:24.360 --> 44:29.760 So out of those hundreds, this should happen every year or whatever, you know, exactly

44:29.760 --> 44:31.760 how many times those are those were repeated.

44:31.760 --> 44:34.700 But something like this should be happening on a regular basis.

44:34.700 --> 44:35.700 And guess what?

44:35.700 --> 44:36.700 It does.

44:36.700 --> 44:42.240 The first time this has happened in 2009, but the Bulgarian lottery turned out the same

44:42.240 --> 44:43.240 numbers in one week.

44:43.240 --> 44:44.240 Right.

44:44.240 --> 44:48.560 And that was considered to be too big a coincidence to have been happening.

44:48.560 --> 44:49.560 It's rigged.

44:49.560 --> 44:50.560 There's something wrong with the system.

44:50.560 --> 44:51.560 It should be happening.

44:51.560 --> 44:52.560 Oh, my God.

44:52.560 --> 44:53.560 All the time.

44:53.560 --> 44:56.880 You know, it would be extraordinary if it didn't happen.

44:56.880 --> 44:57.880 Right.

44:57.880 --> 44:58.880 Exactly.

44:58.880 --> 45:05.440 And if we extend it out to a week, if we do 14 sets of numbers, that's 91 possible comparisons

45:05.440 --> 45:07.920 out of that hundred and fifty seven.

45:07.920 --> 45:12.800 So it's basically a bit greater than 50 percent chance that you go that that would happen.

45:12.800 --> 45:14.880 So anyway, it's it should happen.

45:14.880 --> 45:15.880 Yeah.

45:15.880 --> 45:17.980 It's this kind of thing should be happening.

45:17.980 --> 45:21.980 But the fact that I mean, I know that, you know, whatever, again, the local news isn't

45:21.980 --> 45:22.980 going to get this right.

45:22.980 --> 45:27.240 You know, they're going to present it in the most sensational way possible.

45:27.240 --> 45:31.060 So somebody because somebody with a calculator is, by definition, an expert, right?

45:31.060 --> 45:34.640 Somebody multiplied those two numbers with three hundred thirty one billion.

45:34.640 --> 45:35.640 That was enough for them.

45:35.640 --> 45:38.600 They didn't have to think about it for two seconds.

45:38.600 --> 45:42.320 And then, you know, you see that that was their headline one in three hundred thirty

45:42.320 --> 45:43.320 one billion chance.

45:43.320 --> 45:45.780 But I knew that had to be wrong or had to be something wrong about that.

45:45.780 --> 45:47.640 But it was it was pretty quick to figure that out.

45:47.640 --> 45:53.120 And so that concept, you know, because I wrote about this and the people were talking about

45:53.120 --> 45:57.720 in the in the in the comments, every time this idea comes up, some people just have

45:57.720 --> 46:04.000 a hard time wrapping their brain around the basic concept of the lottery fallacy.

46:04.000 --> 46:08.320 It's like, yeah, but the chance of that person winning was still really low.

46:08.320 --> 46:11.080 It's like, yeah, but you're deciding that after the fact.

46:11.080 --> 46:15.080 I heard somebody in the comments had another great example.

46:15.080 --> 46:22.120 It's like hitting a golf ball into a fairway and the golf ball lands somewhere on the fairway.

46:22.120 --> 46:26.200 And let's say it hits one blade of grass dead center.

46:26.200 --> 46:31.280 That blade of grass must feel really special, right?

46:31.280 --> 46:35.580 But after the fact, you could say, yeah, what were the odds that that blade of grass was

46:35.580 --> 46:36.580 hit by that ball?

46:36.580 --> 46:37.840 It's astronomical.

46:37.840 --> 46:38.840 That's the sharpshooter fallacy.

46:38.840 --> 46:39.840 Yeah.

46:39.840 --> 46:43.360 But the drawing the circle after that is the similar.

46:43.360 --> 46:45.680 There are similar logical problems with that.

46:45.680 --> 46:46.680 Yeah.

46:46.680 --> 46:50.700 It would be like conclude like something miraculous must have happened because the probability

46:50.700 --> 46:54.440 of me hitting that blade of grass was so remote.

46:54.440 --> 46:56.760 But of course, yeah, of course, determine that after you hit it.

46:56.760 --> 47:00.600 But of course, the probability of hitting some blade of grass approaches one.

47:00.600 --> 47:01.600 Right.

47:01.600 --> 47:02.600 I mean, 100 percent.

47:02.600 --> 47:03.600 Yeah.

47:03.600 --> 47:04.600 Unless you get lost.

47:04.600 --> 47:05.600 Unless you're horrible at golf.

47:05.600 --> 47:06.600 Yeah.

47:06.600 --> 47:07.600 Or you land in a sand trap, I guess.

47:07.600 --> 47:10.920 You know, but if you're if you're driving on the fairway, I mean, let's say there's

47:10.920 --> 47:12.580 no sand traps in range.

47:12.580 --> 47:16.340 It's pretty close to 100 percent that you're going to hit some blade of grass.

47:16.340 --> 47:17.760 It's the same idea.

47:17.760 --> 47:18.880 It's the same idea.

47:18.880 --> 47:24.160 So anyway, but again, we talk about before, like somebody winning the lottery twice.

47:24.160 --> 47:28.040 It also happens on a regular basis and should happen on a regular basis.

47:28.040 --> 47:29.680 My grandmother won the lottery twice.

47:29.680 --> 47:30.680 I've never played.

47:30.680 --> 47:33.200 There you go.

47:33.200 --> 47:38.400 And they always reported as the probability of two individual tickets winning.

47:38.400 --> 47:42.720 I'd like to point out she probably spent more than what she won.

47:42.720 --> 47:44.080 I'm sure of that.

47:44.080 --> 47:51.280 Well, actually, I don't know how much she won the first and thirty eight thousand Canadian.

47:51.280 --> 47:54.680 And the second time was over two hundred thirty thousand.

47:54.680 --> 47:55.680 J.K.

47:55.680 --> 48:01.240 He gave me thirty bucks every day, like throughout my childhood, all the way up to a very nice.

48:01.240 --> 48:06.640 But it's a common myth that people who win the lottery fritter away their winnings.

48:06.640 --> 48:12.080 Usually people who win the lottery maintain their wealth long term and most of them invest

48:12.080 --> 48:13.080 it wisely.

48:13.080 --> 48:14.080 Right.

48:14.080 --> 48:17.840 I think what she meant is she spent more playing the lottery than she ever won.

48:17.840 --> 48:20.680 Yeah, she played every day.

48:20.680 --> 48:21.680 Yeah.

48:21.680 --> 48:22.680 Yeah.

48:22.680 --> 48:23.680 Lotteries have issues.

48:23.680 --> 48:24.680 It would be interesting to calculate that.

48:24.680 --> 48:26.080 You're better off.

48:26.080 --> 48:27.080 You are better off.

48:27.080 --> 48:30.400 Like let's say you're going to invest ten dollars a week in lottery tickets or twenty

48:30.400 --> 48:31.440 dollars a week in lottery tickets.

48:31.440 --> 48:34.160 Just put that money in an IRA every week.

48:34.160 --> 48:35.160 You'd be better off.

48:35.160 --> 48:36.160 Better off.

48:36.160 --> 48:37.160 All right.

Mechanical Neural Network (48:37)

• A new type of material called a mechanical neural network can learn and change its physical properties to create adaptable, strong structures

48:37.160 --> 48:41.000 Bob, what is this mechanical neural network that sounds suspicious?

48:41.000 --> 48:42.400 What is that?

48:42.400 --> 48:44.280 This kind of came out of nowhere.

48:44.280 --> 48:45.480 This is really fascinating.

48:45.480 --> 48:51.280 It's a new type of engineered material called the mechanical neural network that takes inspiration

48:51.280 --> 48:56.560 from artificial neural networks and machine learning to adapt and improve its ability

48:56.560 --> 49:00.280 to deal with unexpected forces and even change shape.

49:00.280 --> 49:04.520 So this is an interesting advance by UCLA mechanical engineers, and it's described

49:04.520 --> 49:08.960 in the journal Science Robotics, and it's called Mechanical Neural Networks, architected

49:08.960 --> 49:11.560 materials that learn behaviors.

49:11.560 --> 49:16.040 Now this new approach to material science, it reminds me of metamaterials, Steve, you

49:16.040 --> 49:21.120 might be reminded of as well, because metamaterials, we've talked about many times on the show,

49:21.120 --> 49:26.080 metamaterials have properties that derived essentially from its micro or nano structure

49:26.080 --> 49:28.280 instead of its chemical properties.

49:28.280 --> 49:32.120 It doesn't matter really what it's made of, it's just how it's organized.

49:32.120 --> 49:35.960 So this new type of material I'm talking about gets its properties from its design

49:35.960 --> 49:37.600 and its geometry.

49:37.600 --> 49:43.640 In this way, they often discuss how it's similar to Velcro and that it doesn't matter

49:43.640 --> 49:44.960 what the Velcro is made of.

49:44.960 --> 49:48.720 As long as it has those hooks and those loops, it's going to function no matter what it's

49:48.720 --> 49:49.720 made of.

49:49.720 --> 49:53.080 That will work because it's basically the hooks and the loops that are doing the work.

49:53.080 --> 49:57.960 So a mechanical neural network consists of beams that are organized in a sort of triangular

49:57.960 --> 50:03.760 lattice pattern that change length and stiffen when needed and can interact with other beams.

50:03.760 --> 50:06.480 That's one of the critical aspects to it.

50:06.480 --> 50:13.120 It's that connection between all these little beams that make it similar to neural networks.

50:13.120 --> 50:17.360 Now neural networks, we've described them as well on the show, neural networks build

50:17.360 --> 50:22.360 up deep learning algorithms by passing or not passing data from one node to a deeper

50:22.360 --> 50:24.440 node in the network.

50:24.440 --> 50:28.540 The strength of that connection is manipulated and it's called a weight.

50:28.540 --> 50:33.320 So mechanical neural networks, on the other hand, they tune the weighted connections between

50:33.320 --> 50:39.640 those beams in a similar way by making them stiffer or weaker depending on what they want

50:39.640 --> 50:42.500 to achieve in the environment and things like that.

50:42.500 --> 50:47.600 So that's how it's similar to the neural networks in artificial intelligence.

50:47.600 --> 50:53.360 The engineers say this, they say, we hypothesize that a mechanical lattice with physical nodes

50:53.360 --> 50:57.960 could be trained to take on certain mechanical properties by adjusting each connection's

50:57.960 --> 50:58.960 rigidity.

50:58.960 --> 51:03.280 The idea was to have the mechanical lattice be able to adopt and maintain new properties

51:03.280 --> 51:08.720 like taking on a new shape or changing directional strength and they finished here saying once

51:08.720 --> 51:13.360 the many connections are tuned to achieve a set of tasks, the material will continue

51:13.360 --> 51:15.360 to react in the desired way.

51:15.360 --> 51:20.400 The training is in a sense remembered in the structure of the material itself.

51:20.400 --> 51:22.600 So now they show that this idea actually works.

51:22.600 --> 51:28.760 They built a prototype, they actually about as big as a microwave, it's like a prototype

51:28.760 --> 51:33.940 lattice that they built that was actually able to learn and morph in specific ways when

51:33.940 --> 51:36.620 various forces were applied to it.

51:36.620 --> 51:40.500 So now in the future, they speculate that this could be used as say, for example, part

51:40.500 --> 51:46.660 of a plane wing that could adapt to unexpected things like say internal damage to the inside

51:46.660 --> 51:53.040 the wing itself or unusual or strong wind patterns that just were not expected.

51:53.040 --> 51:57.580 It could strengthen and weaken connections to maintain important attributes like directional

51:57.580 --> 51:59.660 strength because that's pretty much important.

51:59.660 --> 52:04.480 You want to be very strong, those wings need to be very strong in the direction of movement.

52:04.480 --> 52:09.800 So this thing could actually adapt and change so that it maintains that directional strength

52:09.800 --> 52:14.920 regardless of what's going on, whether there's even some weakening of the wings itself or

52:14.920 --> 52:21.360 if the connection to the body of the plane is being changed somehow, it could actually

52:21.360 --> 52:23.720 adapt to that kind of stuff.

52:23.720 --> 52:28.240 Then over time, the algorithm would actually maintain these new properties.

52:28.240 --> 52:32.880 So you could easily extrapolate this idea to buildings, earthquake protection, making

52:32.880 --> 52:38.640 the building stronger and adapting to earthquakes and many other things.

52:38.640 --> 52:44.440 So moving forward, the researchers hope to move from their essentially 2D prototype that

52:44.440 --> 52:49.080 they created to something with smaller components that's three dimensional.

52:49.080 --> 52:53.400 Regarding this, they say, the material my colleagues and I created is a proof of concept

52:53.400 --> 52:57.000 and shows the potential of mechanical neural networks.

52:57.000 --> 53:01.040 But to bring this idea into the real world will require figuring out how to make the

53:01.040 --> 53:06.520 individual pieces smaller and with precise properties of flex and tension.

53:06.520 --> 53:11.240 We hope new research in the manufacturing of materials at the micron scale will lead

53:11.240 --> 53:16.520 to advances that make powerful, smart mechanical neural networks with micron scale elements

53:16.520 --> 53:22.000 and dense three dimensional connections a ubiquitous reality in the near future.

53:22.000 --> 53:27.800 They even describe ideas to use this in armor to deflect shock waves and also using sound

53:27.800 --> 53:29.600 waves in acoustic imaging.

53:29.600 --> 53:31.680 So, yeah, this is fascinating.

53:31.680 --> 53:34.200 I'm really curious to see where this is going to go.

53:34.200 --> 53:38.920 Clearly, though, they need to be able to migrate this idea to the three dimensional scale because

53:38.920 --> 53:40.400 that's where the real power of this would come in.

53:40.400 --> 53:45.880 I'm not sure how much utility it would have in purely two dimensional applications.

53:45.880 --> 53:49.480 But also, and of course, it's got to get a lot smaller and they talk about that micron

53:49.480 --> 53:53.600 scale or even eventually potentially nano scale as well.

53:53.600 --> 53:58.940 Imagine, could you combine this idea with metamaterials, metamaterials with mechanical

53:58.940 --> 53:59.940 neural networks?

53:59.940 --> 54:00.940 What would that be like?

54:00.940 --> 54:07.180 In a way, this idea, it makes these systems more like a biology that could actually adapt

54:07.180 --> 54:11.160 and change to the environment like biology on Earth does.

54:11.160 --> 54:12.160 It's fascinating stuff.

54:12.160 --> 54:13.160 Yeah.

54:13.160 --> 54:14.160 Yeah.

54:14.160 --> 54:18.420 When we like research this, that's one of the this, you know, embodies a couple of themes

54:18.420 --> 54:21.640 that we sort of came up with in terms of future technology.

54:21.640 --> 54:27.200 One is that the distinction between biology and machines is going to get blurry as we

54:27.200 --> 54:28.200 go forward.

54:28.200 --> 54:32.880 You know, sure, biology will be you'll have more machine components and machines will

54:32.880 --> 54:34.400 act more like biology.

54:34.400 --> 54:36.300 This is an example of that.

54:36.300 --> 54:42.440 But also, like one of the real game changing advances for technology is new materials.

54:42.440 --> 54:46.000 We've said that before on the show, like material science is the thing that changes

54:46.000 --> 54:47.000 the game.

54:47.000 --> 54:48.000 Care's favorite discipline.

54:48.000 --> 54:49.000 Yeah.

54:49.000 --> 54:50.000 It really is.

54:50.000 --> 54:54.320 The stuff that you, a lot of the cutting edge stuff that you get is because of a material

54:54.320 --> 54:55.320 science breakthrough.

54:55.320 --> 54:56.320 Yeah.

54:56.320 --> 54:59.960 And it's so dramatic and we're seeing, you know, a lot of, we say that in the book, Steve,

54:59.960 --> 55:05.160 a lot of the materials that we use today very commonly have been around for centuries, if

55:05.160 --> 55:06.920 not millennia, right?

55:06.920 --> 55:09.160 But I think some of that's changing now.

55:09.160 --> 55:15.200 And you know, especially with, you know, automating the research and kind of like research building

55:15.200 --> 55:19.060 on research, you know, standing on the shoulders of giants, creating, you know, having these

55:19.060 --> 55:22.000 breakthroughs in material science, I think are just going to come faster.

55:22.000 --> 55:23.280 Yeah, I agree.

55:23.280 --> 55:27.080 Although I still think the stuff we've been using for thousands of years actually was

55:27.080 --> 55:29.120 still going to be around for a long time.

55:29.120 --> 55:30.120 Yeah.

55:30.120 --> 55:31.120 They'll be coexisting.

55:31.120 --> 55:32.120 They'll be coexisting.

55:32.120 --> 55:36.200 It's not going to do away with cement and concrete and wood, right?

55:36.200 --> 55:37.200 That's not going anywhere.

55:37.200 --> 55:38.200 Steel.

55:38.200 --> 55:39.200 Yeah.

55:39.200 --> 55:40.200 It's not going anywhere.

55:40.200 --> 55:41.200 All right.

55:41.200 --> 55:42.200 Thanks, Bob.

Special Report: History of Vibrators (55:42)

• [link_URL TITLE]

55:42.200 --> 55:43.200 All right, Carrie, you're going to do a special report.

55:43.200 --> 55:45.460 It's not really a news item, but you, you discussed.

55:45.460 --> 55:46.960 It was a science or fiction.

55:46.960 --> 55:51.180 And the idea came up about Victorian medicine.

55:51.180 --> 55:57.680 Did Victorian physicians treat, quote unquote, hysteria in women with vibrators?

55:57.680 --> 56:03.360 And there's, you know, we inadvertently crowdsourced that claim and we got some amazing feedback.

56:03.360 --> 56:08.200 So what's, what's the, we had to do a deeper dive on that, on that specific question.

56:08.200 --> 56:09.200 Yeah, Steve.

56:09.200 --> 56:13.720 So, so thinking back to that science or fiction item, I think we just kind of like we often

56:13.720 --> 56:18.320 do throughout the conventional knowledge that we have, which is, oh yeah, back in the day,

56:18.320 --> 56:23.320 Victorian era, blah, blah, blah, doctors, hysteria, they treated hysteria by bringing

56:23.320 --> 56:24.760 women to orgasm.

56:24.760 --> 56:28.720 They treated it by bringing women to orgasm with vibrators.

56:28.720 --> 56:37.260 And apparently some components of that are possibly true, but like the, the larger claims

56:37.260 --> 56:42.920 that most of us sort of just regurgitate may actually be a myth.

56:42.920 --> 56:49.920 And it's a really interesting story as to how all of this came to be discovered.

56:49.920 --> 56:55.960 So there was a book, we're going to start with a book, and this book was written by

56:55.960 --> 57:00.400 Rachel Maines in 1999.

57:00.400 --> 57:06.760 And the book is called The Technology of Orgasm, Hysteria, the Vibrator and Women's Sexual

57:06.760 --> 57:08.320 Satisfaction.

57:08.320 --> 57:11.480 It was published by Johns Hopkins University Press.

57:11.480 --> 57:14.180 So this is not a trade publication.

57:14.180 --> 57:18.860 It's an academic publication, which means that it was subject to peer review.

57:18.860 --> 57:21.360 So that's something that's important to remember.

57:21.360 --> 57:26.680 It was not subject to intensive fact checking like a journalistic publications are, but

57:26.680 --> 57:27.960 it was subject to peer review.

57:27.960 --> 57:31.620 There were editors involved and it was published by an academic press.

57:31.620 --> 57:39.880 So this book that was written has been cited a lot of times, like a lot, a lot of times.

57:39.880 --> 57:48.220 And Maines' ideas in this book seem to be the template, the basis for a lot of the folk

57:48.220 --> 57:51.100 knowledge that we all use.

57:51.100 --> 57:54.840 The interesting thing is it wasn't really made up out of whole cloth.

57:54.840 --> 58:03.200 It was like a lot of out of context quotes, a lot of kind of stretches in explanations

58:03.200 --> 58:08.400 that ultimately seemed right, felt like, made sense for the zeitgeist that then would be

58:08.400 --> 58:13.260 cited and cited and cited, and everybody just kind of knew this to be.

58:13.260 --> 58:20.500 So now enter Hallie Lieberman, who at the time is a PhD student.

58:20.500 --> 58:21.860 She's a historian.

58:21.860 --> 58:24.460 Also Rachel Maines was a historian.

58:24.460 --> 58:31.600 And Hallie Lieberman is writing her dissertation, her thesis on technology and technology's

58:31.600 --> 58:34.160 use in orgasm.

58:34.160 --> 58:44.740 And she goes to her thesis advisor, Dr. Eric Schatzberg, also at Georgia Tech, and then

58:44.740 --> 58:50.620 Ms. Lieberman, now Dr. Lieberman, started to ask some questions.

58:50.620 --> 58:55.220 And he said, you know, it's a good exercise when you're doing this academic type of research

58:55.220 --> 59:02.100 to not just read the sources that make up your structure of knowledge, but to see who

59:02.100 --> 59:03.540 they were citing.

59:03.540 --> 59:08.820 So go back multiple levels and understand the people who you're citing, who were they

59:08.820 --> 59:09.820 citing?

59:09.820 --> 59:11.780 And so she started to do that with Rachel Maines' book.

59:11.780 --> 59:15.960 And she was like, uh-oh, I see some real red flags here.

59:15.960 --> 59:18.140 She's citing these different people.

59:18.140 --> 59:22.000 And that's not what I'm reading that they said.

59:22.000 --> 59:25.960 Like I'm interpreting some of these quotes wildly differently.

59:25.960 --> 59:31.820 And so they started to systematically try to make sense of this book, The Technology

59:31.820 --> 59:33.180 of Orgasm.

59:33.180 --> 59:39.300 And what they found is that there are three main claims that are made in the book.

59:39.300 --> 59:46.060 So you could kind of break down her core argument is that Victorian physicians used vibrators,

59:46.060 --> 59:50.760 electromechanical vibrators, specifically on the clitorises of women to bring them to

59:50.760 --> 59:56.740 orgasm and that that was a typical treatment for hysteria at the time.

59:56.740 --> 01:00:05.200 And you can kind of break that down into three different main claims.

01:00:05.200 --> 01:00:12.600 The first one is that clitoral massage with a vibrator, and this was big in Maines' book,

01:00:12.600 --> 01:00:20.060 was not seen as a sexual act because it was long viewed that sex with women was only penetrative.

01:00:20.060 --> 01:00:24.440 And the purpose of sex was like it was very male focused.

01:00:24.440 --> 01:00:29.560 So anything where a woman would have an orgasm from clitoral stimulation wasn't viewed as

01:00:29.560 --> 01:00:30.980 sex because it was like useless.

01:00:30.980 --> 01:00:31.980 Right.

01:00:31.980 --> 01:00:32.980 Where did the man get out of that?

01:00:32.980 --> 01:00:33.980 Right.

01:00:33.980 --> 01:00:34.980 Exactly.

01:00:34.980 --> 01:00:39.020 So that's the first claim was that because doctors didn't see it as sexual because no

01:00:39.020 --> 01:00:46.220 penetration was involved, it was a perfectly cromulent medical practice.

01:00:46.220 --> 01:00:52.480 The second claim was that vibrators were widely used to treat hysteria.

01:00:52.480 --> 01:00:58.540 And finally, sort of the bigger funnel claim there, is that massaging the clitoris, even

01:00:58.540 --> 01:01:03.020 pre-vibrator invention, was a practice.

01:01:03.020 --> 01:01:08.660 That physicians did this regularly and it persisted throughout the Victorian era.

01:01:08.660 --> 01:01:11.780 And basically that vibrators were invented.

01:01:11.780 --> 01:01:16.100 When vibrators were invented, doctors were like, great, now we no longer have to spend

01:01:16.100 --> 01:01:20.940 a whole hour doing this manual stimulation of the clitoris to induce this orgasm which

01:01:20.940 --> 01:01:25.460 will treat her hysteria, but instead we have a tool so our arms don't get tired and it's

01:01:25.460 --> 01:01:28.140 way easier and I can see more patients and I can make more money.

01:01:28.140 --> 01:01:30.620 And that's really the crux of the argument.

01:01:30.620 --> 01:01:37.300 And there's a paper that came out again by these two Georgia Tech researchers, Drs. Lieberman

01:01:37.300 --> 01:01:43.760 and Schatzberg, that basically systematically, this was in 2018, so quite recently, systematically

01:01:43.760 --> 01:01:51.320 breaks down every aspect of their argument or of her, of Rachel Maines' argument.

01:01:51.320 --> 01:01:54.700 You'll see some interviews with Rachel Maines.

01:01:54.700 --> 01:02:00.780 You'll see some writings where she basically says, oh, well, I was just testing a hypothesis.

01:02:00.780 --> 01:02:03.540 Not testing, I was just talking about a hypothesis.

01:02:03.540 --> 01:02:06.460 I hypothesized that that's what was going on.

01:02:06.460 --> 01:02:09.360 I didn't ever actually say that that's what was going on.

01:02:09.360 --> 01:02:15.260 But sadly, when you actually read the core text, the tone is pretty assertive.

01:02:15.260 --> 01:02:16.540 This is what they did.

01:02:16.540 --> 01:02:17.540 This is why they did it.

01:02:17.540 --> 01:02:21.780 And remember, this was being written by an academic historian and then she cites a bunch

01:02:21.780 --> 01:02:22.780 of evidence to support it.

01:02:22.780 --> 01:02:23.780 Yeah, right.

01:02:23.780 --> 01:02:24.780 Where are the citations?

01:02:24.780 --> 01:02:25.780 Well, but that's the thing.

01:02:25.780 --> 01:02:26.780 It's not just about a citation.

01:02:26.780 --> 01:02:29.980 It's about what is that citation actually saying and how is it said?

01:02:29.980 --> 01:02:34.900 And that's the nuance that you get when you read this 2018 review because there are lots

01:02:34.900 --> 01:02:38.180 of examples that you can pick out.

01:02:38.180 --> 01:02:41.620 I'm not going to spend a lot of time pointing to them, but maybe she'll talk about an example

01:02:41.620 --> 01:02:44.900 where doctors were talking about the finger technique used.

01:02:44.900 --> 01:02:48.780 But if you dig deeper into the original citation, they were actually talking about the finger

01:02:48.780 --> 01:02:54.620 technique used to do manual massage of other body parts for other ailments.

01:02:54.620 --> 01:03:00.660 Or they'll be talking about vibrators, specifically electromechanical vibrators being used as

01:03:00.660 --> 01:03:02.340 a medical treatment.

01:03:02.340 --> 01:03:08.420 But when you actually dig into the source material and you broaden out what you're reading

01:03:08.420 --> 01:03:12.740 other than that tiny quote that was clipped out, you'll see that they were actually referring

01:03:12.740 --> 01:03:19.780 to vibrators to treat all manner of ailments because the vibrators at the time were snake

01:03:19.780 --> 01:03:21.420 oil medicine.

01:03:21.420 --> 01:03:22.540 It was patent medicine.

01:03:22.540 --> 01:03:27.220 When vibrators came out, a lot of physicians were like, it'll treat what ails you.

01:03:27.220 --> 01:03:28.540 You can use it on your intestines.

01:03:28.540 --> 01:03:29.780 You can use it in your mouth.

01:03:29.780 --> 01:03:30.780 You can use it on your butt.

01:03:30.780 --> 01:03:32.020 You can use it on your foot.

01:03:32.020 --> 01:03:36.340 And it'll help with heartburn and it'll help with muscle fatigue and it'll help with whatever.

01:03:36.340 --> 01:03:42.500 Now that's not to say that there isn't some scant evidence in the literature base that

01:03:42.500 --> 01:03:46.740 shows that vibrators were actually used intravaginally.

01:03:46.740 --> 01:03:51.980 And sometimes they were used intravaginally to treat, quote, hysteria.

01:03:51.980 --> 01:03:55.900 Remember hysteria is a very old diagnosis that goes back to like Hippocrates era.

01:03:55.900 --> 01:04:02.140 They didn't actually use that word, but there were early, early conceptualizations that

01:04:02.140 --> 01:04:07.640 women's uteruses wandered inside of their bodies and that that's what actually caused

01:04:07.640 --> 01:04:15.220 all of these super vague symptoms that very often literally just sound like being alive.

01:04:15.220 --> 01:04:16.220 Being alive.

01:04:16.220 --> 01:04:17.220 How terrible.

01:04:17.220 --> 01:04:18.220 Either that or evil spirits.

01:04:18.220 --> 01:04:19.220 Exactly.

01:04:19.220 --> 01:04:23.940 So first it was like the uterus is wandering and then it was like maybe it's not wandering,

01:04:23.940 --> 01:04:26.180 but you know, something's going on.

01:04:26.180 --> 01:04:27.700 And then it was like, yeah, some evil spirit.

01:04:27.700 --> 01:04:32.740 I mean, there's been iterations throughout, throughout the eras, but hysteria persisted

01:04:32.740 --> 01:04:35.880 as a diagnosis for a very, very long time.

01:04:35.880 --> 01:04:42.260 And there's no question that that was very much of the zeitgeist, that that was a very

01:04:42.260 --> 01:04:45.240 sexist and very lacking in good evidence.

01:04:45.240 --> 01:04:50.900 This was a male dominated field that was studying women in a way that was not very inclusive.

01:04:50.900 --> 01:04:58.960 But sadly, I think because we get that now, this argument that vibrators were used on

01:04:58.960 --> 01:05:03.740 women's clits to induce an orgasm, which was non-sexual in nature, at least so these dumb

01:05:03.740 --> 01:05:08.020 doctors thought, and that way they were treating their hysteria and then the women were loving

01:05:08.020 --> 01:05:10.700 it so they came back to the doctor over and over.

01:05:10.700 --> 01:05:14.780 There doesn't seem to be any evidence to support that.

01:05:14.780 --> 01:05:20.420 Again, a lot of these actual uses that were even remotely close to that claim were intra

01:05:20.420 --> 01:05:25.980 uterine or sorry, intra vaginal or even intra uterine and they were really to treat things

01:05:25.980 --> 01:05:35.860 like uterine prolapse or vaginismus or vaginismus, like different diagnoses that were related

01:05:35.860 --> 01:05:42.040 to sexual health or that were related to pain, bleeding heavily, different things like that.

01:05:42.040 --> 01:05:48.460 But this idea that it was like a vibrator, a clit and hysteria, those three things, it

01:05:48.460 --> 01:05:54.180 looks like mains took the vibrator component, the clit component and the hysteria component

01:05:54.180 --> 01:05:56.020 and glued them together.

01:05:56.020 --> 01:06:00.620 But all of the research that shows that vibrators were used were not used, usually not used

01:06:00.620 --> 01:06:01.960 genitally at all.

01:06:01.960 --> 01:06:04.140 They were also not used to treat hysteria.

01:06:04.140 --> 01:06:09.300 All the research that showed treatments versus hysteria had nothing to do with clitoral massage

01:06:09.300 --> 01:06:13.900 and all of the research that showed anything having to do with anything around the vulva

01:06:13.900 --> 01:06:18.940 very often didn't have anything to do with vibrators or hysteria.

01:06:18.940 --> 01:06:24.280 And so it's pretty interesting that they systematically are able to deconstruct this claim and show

01:06:24.280 --> 01:06:32.300 that dozens if not hundreds of academic papers cited this uncritically because they assumed,

01:06:32.300 --> 01:06:37.860 I mean, it's peer reviewed, that it held water and unfortunately it didn't.

01:06:37.860 --> 01:06:42.380 And so that's why this article is literally called a failure of academic quality control,

01:06:42.380 --> 01:06:44.180 the technology of orgasm.

01:06:44.180 --> 01:06:47.300 So it's not our fault that we, you know, kind of glossed over it.

01:06:47.300 --> 01:06:49.260 Well, I mean, it is and it isn't, right?

01:06:49.260 --> 01:06:54.460 Like this is such a good example of why we all have to work really hard to be good skeptics.

01:06:54.460 --> 01:06:56.900 But at the same time, we can't know everything all the time.

01:06:56.900 --> 01:07:02.100 And that's, it's really fun, I think, when we get a crowdsourced peer review on our show.

01:07:02.100 --> 01:07:03.100 Oh, maybe I shouldn't say that.

01:07:03.100 --> 01:07:04.100 What am I opening the floodgates to?

01:07:04.100 --> 01:07:10.240 Well, it often happens on sort of the off the cuff remarks that we make, which do happen

01:07:10.240 --> 01:07:11.240 regularly.

01:07:11.240 --> 01:07:13.500 So that's bound to happen.

01:07:13.500 --> 01:07:18.520 If we prepare something, we research it and things like that are likely to come up sometimes

01:07:18.520 --> 01:07:19.520 even then.

01:07:19.520 --> 01:07:24.200 Like you go three or four levels deep and it's the fifth level that you get the paper

01:07:24.200 --> 01:07:27.700 that says, or the reference that says, oh no, this is all wrong.

01:07:27.700 --> 01:07:29.580 But usually we do a pretty good job off the cuff.

01:07:29.580 --> 01:07:33.540 I just got to remember that things we think we know, if we didn't recently verify them,

01:07:33.540 --> 01:07:34.540 may not be true.

01:07:34.540 --> 01:07:35.540 Yeah.

01:07:35.540 --> 01:07:41.780 And you can, if you Google sort of like vibrator hysteria, you're going to find a bunch of

01:07:41.780 --> 01:07:52.780 articles from like pre-2016, 17 that are like really credulous and super mainstream publications,

01:07:52.780 --> 01:07:55.980 like scientific, mainstream scientific publications.

01:07:55.980 --> 01:07:58.300 Not easy to say, okay, that's a problem.

01:07:58.300 --> 01:07:59.300 Right.

01:07:59.300 --> 01:08:00.300 Right.

01:08:00.300 --> 01:08:04.260 So after this kind of, you know, was published, then you start to see all of these popular

01:08:04.260 --> 01:08:08.940 write ups of like, hey, maybe it's a myth, like, whoa, we need to be more critical of

01:08:08.940 --> 01:08:09.940 this.

01:08:09.940 --> 01:08:15.100 And again, that's not to say that number one, the vibrator hasn't been used historically

01:08:15.100 --> 01:08:19.460 and isn't still to this day used sometimes as a medical device.

01:08:19.460 --> 01:08:25.740 It is actually listed, like the FDA does have listings of vibrators as the sexual tools

01:08:25.740 --> 01:08:27.540 for very specific purposes.

01:08:27.540 --> 01:08:29.660 It's mostly a trade device, right?

01:08:29.660 --> 01:08:34.860 Obviously we know that vibrators are purchased by women or actually purchased, I shouldn't

01:08:34.860 --> 01:08:38.980 say by women, purchased by anybody who could, you know, benefit from the use of a vibrator

01:08:38.980 --> 01:08:42.900 specifically to enhance sexual pleasure, specifically as a sex toy.

01:08:42.900 --> 01:08:46.340 But they're also often sold as muscle massagers.

01:08:46.340 --> 01:08:47.340 They're sold, yeah.

01:08:47.340 --> 01:08:51.940 I mean, depending on like how kind of puritanical the place you're shopping is and where you

01:08:51.940 --> 01:08:54.740 live and things, they might be sold that way.

01:08:54.740 --> 01:09:00.160 But there are some like FDA listings for vibrators as medical devices.

01:09:00.160 --> 01:09:06.080 And of course now there is a lot of really modern literature about, you know, enhancing

01:09:06.080 --> 01:09:08.980 sexual function through clitoral stimulation with a vibrator.

01:09:08.980 --> 01:09:15.500 Like because we have, we're studying this kind of stuff now and we know that it works.

01:09:15.500 --> 01:09:19.840 So you know, you'll find all sorts of cool, if you want to really read the like the neat

01:09:19.840 --> 01:09:25.100 sexual literature, you know, sex relationships, therapy, human health, all that good stuff.

01:09:25.100 --> 01:09:30.840 But when we're specifically talking about literature from the Victorian era and earlier,

01:09:30.840 --> 01:09:34.480 I think the safest thing to say is there is scant evidence.

01:09:34.480 --> 01:09:36.380 In some cases there is no evidence at all.

01:09:36.380 --> 01:09:40.580 In other cases the evidence shows that this was not a regular practice.

01:09:40.580 --> 01:09:44.580 There were a few kind of French physicians who tried it out and go, oh, we don't really

01:09:44.580 --> 01:09:47.000 think this actually works.

01:09:47.000 --> 01:09:50.620 This doesn't seem to be doing anything for hysteria and they abandoned the practice.

01:09:50.620 --> 01:09:53.580 It just wasn't a regularly used practice like we think it was.

01:09:53.580 --> 01:09:55.540 It went back to electroshock therapy.

01:09:55.540 --> 01:09:56.540 Yeah.

01:09:56.540 --> 01:10:01.460 Well, and eventually, you know, we started to rename what hysteria was.

01:10:01.460 --> 01:10:04.260 There was a movement towards recognizing hysteria in men.

01:10:04.260 --> 01:10:07.180 So then it was like, okay, maybe this has nothing to do with the uterus.

01:10:07.180 --> 01:10:08.500 Maybe it's a misnomer.

01:10:08.500 --> 01:10:09.500 Maybe it's not hysteria.

01:10:09.500 --> 01:10:13.580 And eventually it kind of, it kind of morphed into what we now see as certain aspects of

01:10:13.580 --> 01:10:14.580 mental illness.

01:10:14.580 --> 01:10:16.980 But we didn't understand it back then.

01:10:16.980 --> 01:10:23.180 It's interesting to see the progression of psychological diagnoses over time as well.

01:10:23.180 --> 01:10:26.480 That's a whole different kind of ball of wax, but super interesting.

01:10:26.480 --> 01:10:31.220 And thank you to, I think we had two different listeners who brought that to our attention

01:10:31.220 --> 01:10:32.220 in the emails.

01:10:32.220 --> 01:10:33.220 All right.

01:10:33.220 --> 01:10:34.220 Thank you, Kara.

Who's That Noisy? (1:10:34)

Answer to previous Noisy:

An enormous forest-based xylophone in Japan from 2011 over which a wooden ball rolls to play Bach's Cantata 147, AKA Jesu, Joy of Man's Desiring. The instrument features row upon row of wooden "keys," each of which plays a different note. A single wooden ball is released from the top and rolls down the step-like keys, playing the Cantata 147 as it progresses with hollow, xylophonic plonks.

01:10:34.220 --> 01:10:36.620 Jay, it's Who's That Noisy Time?

01:10:36.620 --> 01:10:37.620 All right, guys.

01:10:37.620 --> 01:10:41.620 Last week I played this noisy.

01:10:41.620 --> 01:10:48.660 I don't know, it's just a 71, 72, 73.

01:10:48.660 --> 01:11:03.900 Okay, I wasn't really expected to be the loudest type of a person.

01:11:03.900 --> 01:11:16.040 All right, you get the idea.

01:11:16.040 --> 01:11:17.040 Anybody have any guesses?

01:11:17.040 --> 01:11:20.640 That's that old cartoon where the skeleton plays his ribcage like a xylophone.

01:11:20.640 --> 01:11:21.640 Oh, really?

01:11:21.640 --> 01:11:23.360 God, I remember that.

01:11:23.360 --> 01:11:24.960 I totally remember that.

01:11:24.960 --> 01:11:25.960 Winner.

01:11:25.960 --> 01:11:29.760 All right, well, I'll start by saying that I got a lot of correct guesses.

01:11:29.760 --> 01:11:31.800 People did a very good job on this one.

01:11:31.800 --> 01:11:37.460 So I got an email from Tracy McFadden, and Tracy said, hey, Jay, I think this week's

01:11:37.460 --> 01:11:42.340 Noisy is a model train with a striking device that hits objects along the track that are

01:11:42.340 --> 01:11:44.100 tuned to a specific note.

01:11:44.100 --> 01:11:50.040 I have seen something similar done with a moving vehicle hitting things that have been

01:11:50.040 --> 01:11:51.360 set up along a roadway.

01:11:51.360 --> 01:11:53.640 I know exactly what you're talking about.

01:11:53.640 --> 01:11:56.960 And sure, that could make a similar noise.

01:11:56.960 --> 01:12:02.560 But there was no train noises, and this was not a train doing what you described.

01:12:02.560 --> 01:12:07.300 Another listener named John McKinnon said, hi, Jay, this week's Noisy sounds like a xylophone

01:12:07.300 --> 01:12:11.640 or a music box mechanism being powered by a spinning water wheel.

01:12:11.640 --> 01:12:17.600 It sounds like the tempo speeds up and slows down, maybe as the rate of water flow changes.

01:12:17.600 --> 01:12:23.520 You are not correct about the spinning water wheel, but you did get something correct in

01:12:23.520 --> 01:12:27.000 your guess, and you will figure that out in a second as I go on here.

01:12:27.000 --> 01:12:30.240 So now I'm just going to get to basically three people who got it correct.

01:12:30.240 --> 01:12:34.400 So Brian Forte said, Jay, this is a great Noisy.

01:12:34.400 --> 01:12:40.040 He said, it's a marble that is running or rolling over a bunch of wooden bars that are

01:12:40.040 --> 01:12:42.160 cut into specific pitches.

01:12:42.160 --> 01:12:43.160 That is correct.

01:12:43.160 --> 01:12:46.560 Adam Hepburn, his family made a bunch of guesses, but I'll jump to his guess.

01:12:46.560 --> 01:12:50.140 He said, now this is that he identifies the song.

01:12:50.140 --> 01:12:53.400 This song is called Jesu Joy of Man's Desiring.

01:12:53.400 --> 01:12:57.520 That's the English version of it.

01:12:57.520 --> 01:13:01.680 And also, he said, Joy by Apollo 100 is a fun song.

01:13:01.680 --> 01:13:05.320 As for his guess, it sounds like a rolling marble sculpture where the marbles are directed

01:13:05.320 --> 01:13:07.320 to a xylophone so it plays music.

01:13:07.320 --> 01:13:08.320 That is correct.

01:13:08.320 --> 01:13:10.180 So you got the song correct.

01:13:10.180 --> 01:13:13.100 Now I'm going to go down to the last one here.

01:13:13.100 --> 01:13:18.620 This is a Japanese wood ball rolling down steps of different lengths of wood bars as

01:13:18.620 --> 01:13:21.120 part of a musical art display.

01:13:21.120 --> 01:13:25.040 This was sent in by a listener named Winnie Wan.

01:13:25.040 --> 01:13:26.720 This is a cool video that you can look up.

01:13:26.720 --> 01:13:32.400 If you just look up Japanese woods or forest xylophone, you'll be able to see it.

01:13:32.400 --> 01:13:39.480 So in essence, this is a wooden ball or some type of ball, I think it's made out of wood,

01:13:39.480 --> 01:13:47.320 that is rolling down a series of steps and each step is a xylophone note.

01:13:47.320 --> 01:13:48.320 That is a piece of wood.

01:13:48.320 --> 01:13:50.480 So as it rolls down, it's making these noises.

01:13:50.480 --> 01:13:52.840 So maybe you can visualize that as you hear this.

01:13:52.840 --> 01:13:59.760 I'll just forward it a little bit here.

01:13:59.760 --> 01:14:05.480 This ball is literally rolling down as it hits each one of these notes.

01:14:05.480 --> 01:14:06.480 Very cool idea.

01:14:06.480 --> 01:14:07.480 Yeah.

01:14:07.480 --> 01:14:08.480 It's very pretty.

01:14:08.480 --> 01:14:09.480 So you should look it up and take a look at it.

01:14:09.480 --> 01:14:12.520 Like the location and where they did it is wonderful.

01:14:12.520 --> 01:14:15.200 So thank you very much for this noisy.

01:14:15.200 --> 01:14:18.760 This was sent in by Peter Kennald from Japan.

01:14:18.760 --> 01:14:20.680 So maybe he even saw this thing in person.

01:14:20.680 --> 01:14:21.680 You never know.

New Noisy (1:14:21)

[_short_vague_description_of_Noisy]

01:14:21.680 --> 01:14:23.540 I have a new noisy this week, guys.

01:14:23.540 --> 01:14:27.360 This noisy was sent in by a listener named Justin Fisher.

01:14:27.360 --> 01:14:28.360 Check this one out.

01:14:28.360 --> 01:14:52.440 This one is very strange.

01:14:52.440 --> 01:14:53.440 Nutty huh?

01:14:53.440 --> 01:14:54.480 It's a bit nutty.

01:14:54.480 --> 01:14:58.320 If you think you know what this week's noisy is, or you heard something cool, you can email me at WTN@theskepticsguide.org.

01:15:01.800 --> 01:15:02.800 Thank you, Jay.

Questions/Emails/Corrections/Follow-ups

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –

Question #1: Intermittent Renewable Energy (1:15:03)

01:15:02.800 --> 01:15:03.800 All right.

01:15:03.800 --> 01:15:04.800 We got one email.

01:15:04.800 --> 01:15:06.400 It's actually one email question.

01:15:06.400 --> 01:15:07.400 There were several emails.

01:15:07.400 --> 01:15:08.400 Yeah.

01:15:08.400 --> 01:15:09.400 We did not get one.

01:15:09.400 --> 01:15:10.400 Yeah.

01:15:10.400 --> 01:15:15.040 But I mean, there were several emails about this topic.

01:15:15.040 --> 01:15:17.720 I'm just going to combine them into one bit of feedback.

01:15:17.720 --> 01:15:18.720 And I knew this was going to happen.

01:15:18.720 --> 01:15:20.280 I basically was setting people up for this.

01:15:20.280 --> 01:15:25.720 So whenever I talk about renewable energy, I get this feedback.

01:15:25.720 --> 01:15:32.800 I think it was, you know, last week before I mentioned that, you know, if you do simulations,

01:15:32.800 --> 01:15:41.200 do analyses, like how much intermittent renewable energy can we have on the grid at one time?

01:15:41.200 --> 01:15:45.360 And you know, because these are not on demand sources, we have no control over when the

01:15:45.360 --> 01:15:49.600 sun shines or when the wind blows, that there's a limit to how much of that the grid can take

01:15:49.600 --> 01:15:53.080 and still be able to balance supply and demand, right?

01:15:53.080 --> 01:15:57.940 Because you know, the electricity grid has to exactly balance supply and demand moment

01:15:57.940 --> 01:16:02.400 to moment, you know, second to second, minute to minute, hour to hour.

01:16:02.400 --> 01:16:06.400 And we do that by turning supply on and off.

01:16:06.400 --> 01:16:11.720 You can turn wind turbines off, but you can't make the wind blow if it's not blowing and

01:16:11.720 --> 01:16:13.520 you can't make the sun shine if it's not shining.

01:16:13.520 --> 01:16:16.520 So we got to take it when it's available.

01:16:16.520 --> 01:16:18.240 So how do we balance these things?

01:16:18.240 --> 01:16:24.200 We balance them in a couple of ways by having other sources of energy that are on demand,

01:16:24.200 --> 01:16:30.780 so-called dispatchable energy, by networking these over a large area so they balance out

01:16:30.780 --> 01:16:35.400 and by having overcapacity, you know, you have more than you need so that some, like

01:16:35.400 --> 01:16:36.900 the wind's always blowing somewhere, right?

01:16:36.900 --> 01:16:44.000 So that you're getting wind from someplace, but spread over a long enough area, it tends

01:16:44.000 --> 01:16:49.360 to, to average out, but that means that you need a lot more total capacity than the actual

01:16:49.360 --> 01:16:50.360 energy that you're producing.

01:16:50.360 --> 01:16:53.800 But of course, that's true of every source of energy.

01:16:53.800 --> 01:16:58.660 Every source of energy has a capacity factor and actually not bad for wind.

01:16:58.660 --> 01:17:01.880 It's really bad for solar, it's only like 22%.

01:17:01.880 --> 01:17:06.320 It's getting over 50% for wind, depending on where we put it in the bigger, you know,

01:17:06.320 --> 01:17:07.840 wind turbines are better.

01:17:07.840 --> 01:17:13.560 It's only in the 50 something percent for fossil fuels and nuclear is about 92%.

01:17:13.560 --> 01:17:14.560 That's the best.

01:17:14.560 --> 01:17:20.880 But in any case, I made the point that if you do simulations, you could, a grid could

01:17:20.880 --> 01:17:26.960 take maybe 30% intermittent sources before you start to get into trouble, meaning you

01:17:26.960 --> 01:17:33.860 can't, you know, effectively balance supply and demand or, you know, the costs tend to

01:17:33.860 --> 01:17:40.680 start shooting up, you know, in terms of trying to go beyond, you know, 30% penetration.

01:17:40.680 --> 01:17:44.280 And it always happens that people respond and say, Oh no, but this study showed that

01:17:44.280 --> 01:17:47.480 you can, or that analysis showed that you can, or this place has it.

01:17:47.480 --> 01:17:51.520 And you know, cause I get it, there are people who are very enthusiastic about wind and solar

01:17:51.520 --> 01:17:56.020 and they want to believe that we can have like a hundred percent wind and solar.

01:17:56.020 --> 01:17:58.140 But the, it's just not true.

01:17:58.140 --> 01:18:00.440 And the examples are always flawed, right?

01:18:00.440 --> 01:18:07.280 So one person, for example, said, yeah, but the UK has more than 30% wind and solar and

01:18:07.280 --> 01:18:12.240 they're doing just fine and they plan on going to 60% or 70%.

01:18:12.240 --> 01:18:16.860 But actually in the email itself, they gave the answer to why that's not a counterexample

01:18:16.860 --> 01:18:17.860 to what I was saying.

01:18:17.860 --> 01:18:24.120 Cause they say they just, they sell their excess electricity to Norway that has, that

01:18:24.120 --> 01:18:30.960 gets most of its energy from hydroelectric and they get extra energy from France, which

01:18:30.960 --> 01:18:32.920 gets most of its energy from nuclear.

01:18:32.920 --> 01:18:35.280 It's like, yeah, that's the point.

01:18:35.280 --> 01:18:38.680 The UK is not an isolated grid.

01:18:38.680 --> 01:18:44.400 It's you know, it has a specifically has an interconnection to someplace where it could

01:18:44.400 --> 01:18:49.380 sell its excess energy and to someplace else where it can get energy when it needs it.

01:18:49.380 --> 01:18:52.300 You have to consider that as a whole.

01:18:52.300 --> 01:18:59.920 So you know, the wind and solar may be 40% of the UK, but it's, it's not 40% of the UK,

01:18:59.920 --> 01:19:05.220 France and Norway, you know, that which is the actual grid we're talking about here.

01:19:05.220 --> 01:19:09.560 So if we're talking about, for example, the Eastern in the Eastern grid, right?

01:19:09.560 --> 01:19:14.580 So the, the United States basically has two big grids, the Eastern and connect and the

01:19:14.580 --> 01:19:16.960 Western interconnect.

01:19:16.960 --> 01:19:19.200 And then it has, Texas is like a smaller grid.

01:19:19.200 --> 01:19:23.900 Alaska is also a smaller grid and Quebec is also like its own grid.

01:19:23.900 --> 01:19:26.240 But otherwise we have two big grids.

01:19:26.240 --> 01:19:31.520 So we have to consider what the balance is on each of those grids, right?

01:19:31.520 --> 01:19:36.120 But the other thing is even if it's technically interconnected, you have to consider the capacity

01:19:36.120 --> 01:19:37.840 of that interconnection.

01:19:37.840 --> 01:19:46.040 So even though we technically could share electricity between Connecticut and Indiana,

01:19:46.040 --> 01:19:51.480 you know, we have to consider how much electricity can we send between those two locations and

01:19:51.480 --> 01:19:53.240 at what cost.

01:19:53.240 --> 01:20:00.280 So having more sharing in order to compensate for intermittent sources increases transmission

01:20:00.280 --> 01:20:06.320 costs, which is why even though wind and solar is getting super cheap, it doesn't necessarily

01:20:06.320 --> 01:20:11.000 decrease the cost of electricity when you add it to the grid.

01:20:11.000 --> 01:20:12.400 There's two reasons why that doesn't happen.

01:20:12.400 --> 01:20:16.280 One is because at least in the United States, they immediately charge their customer for

01:20:16.280 --> 01:20:17.520 the cost of adding it, right?

01:20:17.520 --> 01:20:19.140 That gets added onto your bill.

01:20:19.140 --> 01:20:21.340 And second, it increases transmission costs.

01:20:21.340 --> 01:20:23.840 So how do we solve that problem?

01:20:23.840 --> 01:20:27.620 You know, the big answer is you upgrade the grid and there are studies which show that

01:20:27.620 --> 01:20:32.320 when you invest in upgrading the grid, you get more than the money you invest back in

01:20:32.320 --> 01:20:37.680 reduced transmission costs and it increases your ability to add intermittent sources to

01:20:37.680 --> 01:20:38.680 the grid.

01:20:38.680 --> 01:20:42.720 So if you ask, how much can we add right now?

01:20:42.720 --> 01:20:45.360 That's where that 30% figure comes in.

01:20:45.360 --> 01:20:49.040 If you say, what could we add theoretically in the future?

01:20:49.040 --> 01:20:51.120 The answer is it depends.

01:20:51.120 --> 01:20:58.560 It depends really on two big things and one is how much money are we going to invest in

01:20:58.560 --> 01:21:00.220 upgrading the grid?

01:21:00.220 --> 01:21:02.980 So we need a more robust grid.

01:21:02.980 --> 01:21:09.600 We need a grid that is able to share electricity over a wider area and we need a smart grid

01:21:09.600 --> 01:21:13.600 that will balance loads second to second.

01:21:13.600 --> 01:21:17.520 The other big thing is, I'm sure you guys would guess, grid storage, right?

01:21:17.520 --> 01:21:22.180 The more grid storage you add, the more intermittent sources you can have.

01:21:22.180 --> 01:21:24.360 So that's the other type of feedback you get.

01:21:24.360 --> 01:21:26.040 People say, oh no, we can get to 70, 80.

01:21:26.040 --> 01:21:27.400 All you need is all this grid storage.

01:21:27.400 --> 01:21:28.880 Like, yeah, I know that.

01:21:28.880 --> 01:21:30.600 That wasn't my point.

01:21:30.600 --> 01:21:35.380 The point is we can't add it now because we don't have the grid storage now.

01:21:35.380 --> 01:21:41.000 And so these models which say we can get up to 70% wind and solar, they always include

01:21:41.000 --> 01:21:48.720 really optimistic projections about grid storage, right, and also grid upgrades in addition

01:21:48.720 --> 01:21:53.520 to realistic but still optimistic projections of wind and solar costs.

01:21:53.520 --> 01:21:57.100 I buy that those costs are going to continue to come down, although we don't know where

01:21:57.100 --> 01:22:04.360 they're going to peak in terms of, we can't assume that trends will continue inevitably.

01:22:04.360 --> 01:22:08.480 Like you pick the low hanging fruit and then the benefits tend to plateau at some point.

01:22:08.480 --> 01:22:16.080 But even if we assume very cheap wind and solar, you only get past that 30, maybe 40%,

01:22:16.080 --> 01:22:18.520 depending on which analysis you read.

01:22:18.520 --> 01:22:21.360 And again, I've tried to, I've read every one I could get my hands on, every one that

01:22:21.360 --> 01:22:23.440 I could find just to try to say, what is that number?

01:22:23.440 --> 01:22:27.400 What's the number of penetration of wind and solar?

01:22:27.400 --> 01:22:32.200 And there's a range of estimates based on a range of assumptions, but that 30 to 40%,

01:22:32.200 --> 01:22:33.800 that's basically the average.

01:22:33.800 --> 01:22:36.160 That's where it comes in.

01:22:36.160 --> 01:22:40.520 To get past that, there's always assumptions about grid storage and grid upgrades.

01:22:40.520 --> 01:22:41.760 And it's like, yes, I get that.

01:22:41.760 --> 01:22:47.200 That's why we need to invest in those two things so we can get past that 30%.

01:22:47.200 --> 01:22:54.760 Even then though, you're only going to get up to 40 to 60% unless you have ridiculously

01:22:54.760 --> 01:22:56.000 massive grid storage.

01:22:56.000 --> 01:23:00.000 And that's what I think a lot of people don't understand is that when you're talking about

01:23:00.000 --> 01:23:06.680 high levels of grid storage, you're talking about multiple orders of magnitude beyond

01:23:06.680 --> 01:23:13.240 what we can realistically add in the next five to 10 years.

01:23:13.240 --> 01:23:16.160 There's a lot of electricity going through the grid.

01:23:16.160 --> 01:23:23.320 And storing it for even a very short amount of time would just take massive grid storage.

01:23:23.320 --> 01:23:27.400 Massive grid storage is the kind of thing we should be thinking about as, we'll have

01:23:27.400 --> 01:23:31.320 that in 40 to 50 years, seriously.

01:23:31.320 --> 01:23:33.040 Not the next 20 years.

01:23:33.040 --> 01:23:40.600 The next 20 years, we are going to have incrementally increasing very modest amounts of grid storage.

01:23:40.600 --> 01:23:43.960 Unless there's a technological breakthrough, it's like, I can make batteries out of nothing.

01:23:43.960 --> 01:23:44.960 You know what I mean?

01:23:44.960 --> 01:23:47.960 Like the kind of things that people are researching, but that we're not mass producing at this

01:23:47.960 --> 01:23:49.160 point in time.

01:23:49.160 --> 01:23:52.600 And there's always things, we talk about grid storage like, oh yeah, they're making breakthroughs

01:23:52.600 --> 01:23:59.320 in more efficient compressed air grid storage and whatever salt, you know, melted salt grid

01:23:59.320 --> 01:24:00.320 storage, whatever.

01:24:00.320 --> 01:24:01.320 Yeah, those are all great.

01:24:01.320 --> 01:24:05.840 You know, and that will, that I'm counting that as adding incrementally to our grid storage.

01:24:05.840 --> 01:24:11.360 But you know, when you look at how much you would actually need to get to high penetrations

01:24:11.360 --> 01:24:13.680 of wind and solar, it's massive.

01:24:13.680 --> 01:24:16.480 It's like that's decades and decades away.

01:24:16.480 --> 01:24:20.160 So we have to be thinking about what's our energy mix going to be over the next 20 to

01:24:20.160 --> 01:24:23.920 30 years, and then what's it going to be after that?

01:24:23.920 --> 01:24:28.560 And if you, you can't have a solution that's, you know, 30 plus years away and say, that's

01:24:28.560 --> 01:24:34.520 our solution now, because by the time that comes in play, it's too late, right?

01:24:34.520 --> 01:24:37.800 It's your past 2050, all the bad stuff has happened.

01:24:37.800 --> 01:24:42.960 Obviously it could still get worse, but we will have blown past the two degree Celsius

01:24:42.960 --> 01:24:47.680 goal that we're trying to keep under, let alone the 1.5 one, you know.

01:24:47.680 --> 01:24:53.880 So for the next 20 years, 30% wind and solar, that's basically all we're going to get.

01:24:53.880 --> 01:24:58.200 And beyond that, it really becomes implausible.

01:24:58.200 --> 01:25:00.520 And so what's the rest going to be?

01:25:00.520 --> 01:25:01.700 That's really the only question.

01:25:01.700 --> 01:25:04.980 And it shouldn't be fossil fuel, right?

01:25:04.980 --> 01:25:07.620 So it's got to be something else.

01:25:07.620 --> 01:25:12.880 After 30 years, you know, maybe we'll have some, some game changing grid storage kicking

01:25:12.880 --> 01:25:16.680 in that'll be a game changer, but not in the next 20 to 30 years.

01:25:16.680 --> 01:25:17.680 Okay.

01:25:17.680 --> 01:25:18.680 But I'm happy to be wrong about that.

01:25:18.680 --> 01:25:23.200 But again, none of the references anybody sent me contradicted that they all had these

01:25:23.200 --> 01:25:27.920 other assumptions in there that were not correct, that don't apply to what I was saying.

[top]                        

Science or Fiction (1:25:27)

Theme: Apples Item #1: Evolutionarily, apples have been around for about 12 million years, but the oldest archaeological evidence of apples being used as food goes back to 3160 BCE. Item #2: John Chapman (Johnny Appleseed) promoted the process of hybridizing apple cultivars, and his basic process is still used today to produce most commercial apple trees from seeds. Item #3: Even though the US is the second most apple producing country in the world (after China), only crabapples are native to North America. Edible apples were imported from Europe in the late 16th century.

Answer	Item
Fiction	Process still used
Science	Crabapples in N. America
Science	12myo, eaten since 3160 BCE

Host	Result
Steve	win

Rogue	Guess
Ajia	12myo, eaten since 3160 BCE
Jay	Process still used
Cara	Process still used
Bob	Process still used
Evan	Process still used

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Steve Explains Item #2

01:25:27.920 --> 01:25:35.360 All right, let's go on with science or fiction.

01:25:35.360 --> 01:25:44.840 It's time for science or fiction.

01:25:44.840 --> 01:25:49.720 Each week I come up with three science news items, four facts, two real and one fictitious.

01:25:49.720 --> 01:25:54.400 And then I challenge my panel of skeptics to tell me which one they think is the fake.

01:25:54.400 --> 01:25:56.200 We have a theme this week.

01:25:56.200 --> 01:26:00.480 It's kind of a fall theme, although it's a little bit late, but it's still, it's still

01:26:00.480 --> 01:26:03.080 a perfectly acceptable fall theme.

01:26:03.080 --> 01:26:05.080 The theme is apples.

01:26:05.080 --> 01:26:06.080 Apples.

01:26:06.080 --> 01:26:07.080 Yeah.

01:26:07.080 --> 01:26:10.760 Jay, how do you like them apples?

01:26:10.760 --> 01:26:13.760 Can't beat me to that.

01:26:13.760 --> 01:26:15.120 All right.

01:26:15.120 --> 01:26:17.280 Three things about apples.

01:26:17.280 --> 01:26:18.280 Two real, one fake.

01:26:18.280 --> 01:26:19.280 Here we go.

01:26:19.280 --> 01:26:24.720 Item number one, evolutionarily, apples have been around for about 12 million years, but

01:26:24.720 --> 01:26:34.040 the oldest archeological evidence of apples being used as food goes back to 3160 BCE.

01:26:34.040 --> 01:26:40.860 Item number two, John Chapman, more famously known as Johnny Appleseed, promoted the process

01:26:40.860 --> 01:26:47.520 of hybridizing apple cultivars and his basic process is still used today to produce the

01:26:47.520 --> 01:26:50.960 most commercial apple trees from seeds.

01:26:50.960 --> 01:26:55.960 Item number three, even though the US is the second most apple producing country in the

01:26:55.960 --> 01:27:01.480 world after China, only crab apples are native to North America.

01:27:01.480 --> 01:27:06.080 Edible apples were imported from Europe in the late 16th century.

01:27:06.080 --> 01:27:10.920 Asia, as our guest, and since you've played this twice before, you get to go first this

01:27:10.920 --> 01:27:11.920 week.

01:27:11.920 --> 01:27:12.920 Yeah.

01:27:12.920 --> 01:27:13.920 Do you know what your history is?

01:27:13.920 --> 01:27:17.840 I mean, what your score is for your previous Science for Fiction?

01:27:17.840 --> 01:27:18.840 Your record?

01:27:18.840 --> 01:27:20.880 I think my record is bad.

01:27:20.880 --> 01:27:24.920 Well, you have an opportunity to turn around.

01:27:24.920 --> 01:27:27.440 Show us what you know about apples.

01:27:27.440 --> 01:27:31.280 I believe the crab apples being native to North America is true.

01:27:31.280 --> 01:27:34.120 So I'm going to go with that fact.

01:27:34.120 --> 01:27:35.120 Let's find the fiction.

01:27:35.120 --> 01:27:41.680 We're going to go with an educated guess.

01:27:41.680 --> 01:27:44.880 I'm going to go with number one is the fiction.

01:27:44.880 --> 01:27:46.880 I'm probably going to regret that later.

01:27:46.880 --> 01:27:47.880 Yeah.

01:27:47.880 --> 01:27:51.400 The 12 million years old, but only 3160 BC.

01:27:51.400 --> 01:27:52.400 Okay.

01:27:52.400 --> 01:27:54.120 Jay, you seem to want to talk about apples.

01:27:54.120 --> 01:27:55.800 You can go next.

01:27:55.800 --> 01:27:56.800 Apples.

01:27:56.800 --> 01:28:02.840 The first one about apples, you know, 12 million years, but they have archaeological evidence

01:28:02.840 --> 01:28:03.840 3160 BC.

01:28:03.840 --> 01:28:07.880 I mean, I see no reason why that can't be true.

01:28:07.880 --> 01:28:12.760 I mean, whatever apples came from had been around for millions of years, just like tons

01:28:12.760 --> 01:28:15.580 of other plants and things like that.

01:28:15.580 --> 01:28:18.080 So I think that's probably fine.

01:28:18.080 --> 01:28:20.080 Johnny Chapman Appleseed.

01:28:20.080 --> 01:28:21.820 This guy, he's a bastard.

01:28:21.820 --> 01:28:23.920 Never trust Johnny Appleseed, Steve, I'm telling you.

01:28:23.920 --> 01:28:24.920 I don't know.

01:28:24.920 --> 01:28:28.680 So this guy was walking around, he's dropping seeds, you know, he's trying to...

01:28:28.680 --> 01:28:29.680 Here we go.

01:28:29.680 --> 01:28:32.600 We'll get 10,000 corrections probably on that next week.

01:28:32.600 --> 01:28:34.600 He's spitting them out as he's eating them.

01:28:34.600 --> 01:28:37.720 And then, you know, mixes a couple of these plants together.

01:28:37.720 --> 01:28:39.560 Next thing you know, you got Fuji apples, right?

01:28:39.560 --> 01:28:40.560 Is that what we're saying?

01:28:40.560 --> 01:28:41.560 Steve?

01:28:41.560 --> 01:28:42.560 Hello?

01:28:42.560 --> 01:28:43.560 Yeah.

01:28:43.560 --> 01:28:44.560 Self explain.

01:28:44.560 --> 01:28:45.560 He hears everything you're saying.

01:28:45.560 --> 01:28:46.560 I don't remember.

01:28:46.560 --> 01:28:49.520 I remember reading about this guy when I was young.

01:28:49.520 --> 01:28:51.120 I don't remember what he did.

01:28:51.120 --> 01:28:52.520 I'm pretty sure he's real.

01:28:52.520 --> 01:28:53.520 Let's start with that.

01:28:53.520 --> 01:28:57.720 But I don't know if he had anything to do with the hybridization of apples.

01:28:57.720 --> 01:28:58.860 So I'm going to put that one on hold.

01:28:58.860 --> 01:29:03.320 The third one, even though the US is the second most apple producing country in the world

01:29:03.320 --> 01:29:07.760 after China, only crab apples are native to North America.

01:29:07.760 --> 01:29:08.760 Damn.

01:29:08.760 --> 01:29:10.880 Crab apples in America, in the Americas.

01:29:10.880 --> 01:29:12.560 I mean, it makes sense.

01:29:12.560 --> 01:29:16.820 It makes sense that, you know, but then you got to talk about Native Americans and what

01:29:16.820 --> 01:29:17.880 were they doing?

01:29:17.880 --> 01:29:22.320 You know, if they were going to be messing around with any fruits, it was probably apples.

01:29:22.320 --> 01:29:23.320 Damn you, Steve.

01:29:23.320 --> 01:29:24.320 This is a tough one.

01:29:24.320 --> 01:29:26.920 I'm going to say that the Johnny Appleseed one is the fiction.

01:29:26.920 --> 01:29:27.920 Okay, Kara.

01:29:27.920 --> 01:29:31.040 I didn't even know Johnny Appleseed was a real person.

01:29:31.040 --> 01:29:34.200 I thought he was, that was like a nursery rhyme or something.

01:29:34.200 --> 01:29:35.200 Like Peter Cottontail.

01:29:35.200 --> 01:29:36.200 That's so terrible.

01:29:36.200 --> 01:29:41.200 Like he doesn't sound real.

01:29:41.200 --> 01:29:42.560 Oh my gosh.

01:29:42.560 --> 01:29:44.520 But clearly that's not his real name.

01:29:44.520 --> 01:29:46.000 His real name was John Chapman.

01:29:46.000 --> 01:29:50.040 People called him Johnny Appleseed probably because he did something with apple seeds.

01:29:50.040 --> 01:29:55.360 So that sounds, again, cromulent.

01:29:55.360 --> 01:29:58.520 There's a lot of cromulants in this episode.

01:29:58.520 --> 01:30:01.560 But did he hybridize different cultivars?

01:30:01.560 --> 01:30:07.120 And is his basic process still used today to produce trees from seeds?

01:30:07.120 --> 01:30:08.960 I don't know.

01:30:08.960 --> 01:30:12.100 When you say, Steve, and you probably can't answer this because I'm going like fourth,

01:30:12.100 --> 01:30:16.160 but when you say evolutionarily, apples have been around for about 12 million years, do

01:30:16.160 --> 01:30:17.420 you mean like apple?

01:30:17.420 --> 01:30:19.800 You don't mean apples as we know them today, I'm assuming.

01:30:19.800 --> 01:30:20.800 You mean some lineage.

01:30:20.800 --> 01:30:26.080 Not the species, not the specific varieties that we know today, but they were apples.

01:30:26.080 --> 01:30:27.080 They were called that.

01:30:27.080 --> 01:30:28.080 You know what I mean?

01:30:28.080 --> 01:30:30.000 There was something different enough about them to make them apple-y.

01:30:30.000 --> 01:30:31.000 Yeah.

01:30:31.000 --> 01:30:33.040 They were technically apples.

01:30:33.040 --> 01:30:34.040 Okay.

01:30:34.040 --> 01:30:35.040 All right.

01:30:35.040 --> 01:30:38.920 So that could be the case, but it could also be that something that was like the predecessor

01:30:38.920 --> 01:30:41.080 of the apple is that old.

01:30:41.080 --> 01:30:44.080 And you know, oldest archaeological evidence is super, super old.

01:30:44.080 --> 01:30:47.520 That would make sense if they're naturally occurring.

01:30:47.520 --> 01:30:52.800 And of course, finding archaeological evidence of something that does not preserve very well

01:30:52.800 --> 01:30:54.400 is probably really hard to do.

01:30:54.400 --> 01:30:58.200 So yeah, there could be something to that.

01:30:58.200 --> 01:31:00.920 And then are crab apples apples?

01:31:00.920 --> 01:31:02.400 Yeah, they're apples.

01:31:02.400 --> 01:31:03.400 Oh, okay.

01:31:03.400 --> 01:31:04.400 They're not crabs.

01:31:04.400 --> 01:31:05.560 So I buy it.

01:31:05.560 --> 01:31:12.360 I buy that crab apples are native, but regular apples aren't native to North America.

01:31:12.360 --> 01:31:16.120 There's a lot of things that we think of as being like quintessentially American, like

01:31:16.120 --> 01:31:19.520 American as apple pie that we imported from somewhere else.

01:31:19.520 --> 01:31:24.840 So I don't know, I feel like the Johnny Appleseed one has the most like myth associated with

01:31:24.840 --> 01:31:25.840 it.

01:31:25.840 --> 01:31:29.120 Also, I didn't know he was real until like right now, so I'm going to say that's the

01:31:29.120 --> 01:31:30.120 fiction.

01:31:30.120 --> 01:31:31.120 Okay, Bob.

01:31:31.120 --> 01:31:33.840 I mean, nothing would surprise me here.

01:31:33.840 --> 01:31:42.200 I want Johnny Appleseed to be true, so I'm going to say it's fiction, so I'll be happy

01:31:42.200 --> 01:31:43.200 either way.

01:31:43.200 --> 01:31:44.200 That's it?

01:31:44.200 --> 01:31:45.200 All right.

01:31:45.200 --> 01:31:46.200 Yeah, definitely.

01:31:46.200 --> 01:31:47.200 Yeah.

01:31:47.200 --> 01:31:52.360 Okay, I'll get to the core of it here and say that, yeah, I think the Johnny Appleseed

01:31:52.360 --> 01:31:54.960 one, something's wrong there.

01:31:54.960 --> 01:32:00.840 Obviously, John Chapman was a person, but did he really hybridize apple cultivars?

01:32:00.840 --> 01:32:02.840 I don't even know.

01:32:02.840 --> 01:32:03.840 Really?

01:32:03.840 --> 01:32:10.040 I don't know that part of the legend of him, not that I know much about it, but I don't

01:32:10.040 --> 01:32:11.040 know.

01:32:11.040 --> 01:32:12.040 That doesn't sound right.

01:32:12.040 --> 01:32:17.280 I mean, Kara said that that has, I think, the most wiggle room in it for it to be fiction,

01:32:17.280 --> 01:32:19.120 so I'll say that's fiction.

01:32:19.120 --> 01:32:22.320 Okay, so you all agree with the third one, so we'll start there.

01:32:22.320 --> 01:32:27.120 Even though the US is the second to most apple producing country in the world after China,

01:32:27.120 --> 01:32:29.900 only crab apples are native to North America.

01:32:29.900 --> 01:32:34.200 Edible apples were imported from Europe in the late 16th century.

01:32:34.200 --> 01:32:40.480 You guys all think this one is science, so were apples in the Americas prior to the 16th

01:32:40.480 --> 01:32:41.480 century?

01:32:41.480 --> 01:32:45.120 And this one is science.

01:32:45.120 --> 01:32:46.120 This is science.

01:32:46.120 --> 01:32:51.160 Yeah, so recent introduction to North America, but yeah, we only had, only crab apples are

01:32:51.160 --> 01:32:53.200 native to North America.

01:32:53.200 --> 01:33:00.320 What do you think is the most popular variety of apple in the world?

01:33:00.320 --> 01:33:03.440 In the world?

01:33:03.440 --> 01:33:05.280 The green apple?

01:33:05.280 --> 01:33:07.040 Green is a three.

01:33:07.040 --> 01:33:08.040 Granny Smith is three.

01:33:08.040 --> 01:33:09.040 Okay.

01:33:09.040 --> 01:33:10.040 Number three.

01:33:10.040 --> 01:33:11.040 Oh, not a red delicious.

01:33:11.040 --> 01:33:12.040 And number one.

01:33:12.040 --> 01:33:13.040 What's it called?

01:33:13.040 --> 01:33:14.040 Fiji?

01:33:14.040 --> 01:33:15.040 Fuji?

01:33:15.040 --> 01:33:16.040 It's called the...

01:33:16.040 --> 01:33:17.040 Fuji's four.

01:33:17.040 --> 01:33:18.040 Fuji's four, okay.

01:33:18.040 --> 01:33:20.240 Is it the Macintosh 2C?

01:33:20.240 --> 01:33:21.240 Crab apples.

01:33:21.240 --> 01:33:24.080 Steve, is it the Honeycrisp?

01:33:24.080 --> 01:33:25.080 That's five.

01:33:25.080 --> 01:33:27.720 Oh, is it red or is it green?

01:33:27.720 --> 01:33:30.760 You guys would be doing good if you were on like a Family Feud or something.

01:33:30.760 --> 01:33:31.760 Yeah, seriously.

01:33:31.760 --> 01:33:32.760 Good answer.

01:33:32.760 --> 01:33:33.760 Good answer.

01:33:33.760 --> 01:33:34.760 But then the other team would steal it with the very first one.

01:33:34.760 --> 01:33:35.760 They would.

01:33:35.760 --> 01:33:36.760 They would steal it and they would say...

01:33:36.760 --> 01:33:37.760 Oh, there's Macintosh.

01:33:37.760 --> 01:33:38.760 There's Fuji.

01:33:38.760 --> 01:33:39.760 There's Pinkly.

01:33:39.760 --> 01:33:40.760 We didn't say Macintosh yet.

01:33:40.760 --> 01:33:41.760 We didn't say Macintosh is six.

01:33:41.760 --> 01:33:42.760 No.

01:33:42.760 --> 01:33:43.760 The Gala apple.

01:33:43.760 --> 01:33:44.760 The Gala.

01:33:44.760 --> 01:33:45.760 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

01:33:45.760 --> 01:33:46.760 Those are good.

01:33:46.760 --> 01:33:47.760 Those are yummy.

01:33:47.760 --> 01:33:48.760 Is it Gala or Gala?

01:33:48.760 --> 01:33:49.760 I don't know.

01:33:49.760 --> 01:33:50.760 I don't know.

01:33:50.760 --> 01:33:51.760 Those are sweet and sour.

01:33:51.760 --> 01:33:52.760 That's number one.

01:33:52.760 --> 01:33:53.760 Yeah.

01:33:53.760 --> 01:33:54.760 Of those, my favorite is Honeycrisp.

01:33:54.760 --> 01:33:55.760 Yeah.

01:33:55.760 --> 01:33:56.760 Honeycrisp tends to be the...

01:33:56.760 --> 01:34:01.280 Oh, there's a local apple orchard that does the pick your own thing.

01:34:01.280 --> 01:34:04.440 My favorite one to eat off the tree is the Goldencrisp.

01:34:04.440 --> 01:34:10.680 It's basically a yellow apple, a golden apple that they hybrid with the Honeycrisp.

01:34:10.680 --> 01:34:11.680 It is amazing.

01:34:11.680 --> 01:34:15.880 Steve, when you eat that golden apple, does it heal up your hit points?

01:34:15.880 --> 01:34:16.880 It does.

01:34:16.880 --> 01:34:17.880 Totally.

01:34:17.880 --> 01:34:18.880 Yeah.

01:34:18.880 --> 01:34:21.880 Gives you a morale bonus.

01:34:21.880 --> 01:34:22.880 All right.

01:34:22.880 --> 01:34:23.880 Let's go back to number one.

01:34:23.880 --> 01:34:28.000 Evolutionarily, apples have been around for about 12 million years, but the oldest archeological

01:34:28.000 --> 01:34:32.280 evidence of apples being used as food goes back to 3160 BCE.

01:34:32.280 --> 01:34:34.640 Asia, you think this one is the fiction.

01:34:34.640 --> 01:34:37.040 All the rogues think this one is the science.

01:34:37.040 --> 01:34:38.840 So did Asia beat the rogues?

01:34:38.840 --> 01:34:41.040 This might be the fiction.

01:34:41.040 --> 01:34:43.080 This one is...

01:34:43.080 --> 01:34:44.080 This is science.

01:34:44.080 --> 01:34:45.080 Sorry, Asia.

01:34:45.080 --> 01:34:46.080 12 million.

01:34:46.080 --> 01:34:47.080 That's a long time.

01:34:47.080 --> 01:34:50.680 12 million is a long time, and they were just wild apples, and there are wild apples still

01:34:50.680 --> 01:34:51.680 in the world.

01:34:51.680 --> 01:34:52.680 I mean, you could just go and...

01:34:52.680 --> 01:34:53.680 You can eat them.

01:34:53.680 --> 01:35:01.280 They're actually edible wild apples, but the apple was very easy to cultivate, which means

01:35:01.280 --> 01:35:07.040 that John Chapman, Johnny Appleseed, promoted the process of hybridizing apple cultivars,

01:35:07.040 --> 01:35:10.560 and his basic process is still used today to produce most commercial apple trees from

01:35:10.560 --> 01:35:11.560 seeds.

01:35:11.560 --> 01:35:19.200 So John Chapman was a real person, Cara, who was colloquially called Johnny Appleseed because

01:35:19.200 --> 01:35:24.680 he did promote a process of hybridizing apple cultivars from seeds, right?

01:35:24.680 --> 01:35:27.860 So he was all about producing apple seeds.

01:35:27.860 --> 01:35:36.120 The problem is his process did not work, and we don't use it today for a very good scientific

01:35:36.120 --> 01:35:37.120 reason.

01:35:37.120 --> 01:35:38.120 Because he was wrong.

01:35:38.120 --> 01:35:39.120 And the reason...

01:35:39.120 --> 01:35:40.480 Does anybody know this reason?

01:35:40.480 --> 01:35:42.600 It has to be a genetic reason.

01:35:42.600 --> 01:35:45.080 Yeah, it is a genetic reason.

01:35:45.080 --> 01:35:46.080 Good.

01:35:46.080 --> 01:35:50.080 Do any of you grow apple trees in your backyard?

01:35:50.080 --> 01:35:51.080 I do not.

01:35:51.080 --> 01:35:52.080 No.

01:35:52.080 --> 01:35:55.280 I do, and one of the things you learn when you plant apple trees is that if you want

01:35:55.280 --> 01:35:58.320 your apple trees to actually produce apples...

01:35:58.320 --> 01:36:00.040 You need something to pollinate them.

01:36:00.040 --> 01:36:03.280 You need another kind of apple tree to pollinate them.

01:36:03.280 --> 01:36:04.280 What?

01:36:04.280 --> 01:36:06.880 You need different cultivars that are complementary.

01:36:06.880 --> 01:36:12.320 I mean, they'll still produce apples, they just won't be big or good, or a lot of them.

01:36:12.320 --> 01:36:13.920 What the hell, man?

01:36:13.920 --> 01:36:17.720 Because apples are extreme heterozygotes.

01:36:17.720 --> 01:36:19.320 They're extreme heterozygotes.

01:36:19.320 --> 01:36:26.260 What that means is that when you produce an apple from a seed, it does not produce the

01:36:26.260 --> 01:36:29.240 same cultivar that you got the seed from.

01:36:29.240 --> 01:36:30.240 Gotcha.

01:36:30.240 --> 01:36:31.800 So it's got all this recessive stuff popping out.

01:36:31.800 --> 01:36:32.800 Yeah, yeah.

01:36:32.800 --> 01:36:37.240 So you cannot produce a stable cultivar from seeds.

01:36:37.240 --> 01:36:38.240 That sucks.

01:36:38.240 --> 01:36:39.240 Clone it?

01:36:39.240 --> 01:36:40.240 You have to clone it.

01:36:40.240 --> 01:36:43.760 So if you buy an apple tree, those are graftings.

01:36:43.760 --> 01:36:50.380 They take the honeycrisp apple tree, and then you have to just take clippings from that

01:36:50.380 --> 01:36:56.800 and graft it onto rootstock, and then you sell those trees to orchards or people who

01:36:56.800 --> 01:36:57.800 want to plant them.

01:36:57.800 --> 01:37:02.320 By the way, isn't that faster and cheaper anyway than growing from seed?

01:37:02.320 --> 01:37:04.160 Well, there are other advantages.

01:37:04.160 --> 01:37:08.280 The other things you do is you graft them onto dwarf trees so that you don't have to

01:37:08.280 --> 01:37:11.800 climb up these 30-, 40-, 50-foot trees to pick your apples.

01:37:11.800 --> 01:37:12.800 Oh, nice.

01:37:12.800 --> 01:37:13.800 Holy crap.

01:37:13.800 --> 01:37:14.800 So you put them on dwarf trees.

01:37:14.800 --> 01:37:18.360 You put them on trees that are going to be really productive.

01:37:18.360 --> 01:37:23.320 So yeah, absolutely, it's a better technique for those reasons as well.

01:37:23.320 --> 01:37:27.520 But also, if you want a specific cultivar, it's your only option.

01:37:27.520 --> 01:37:31.120 You cannot get a reliable result from a seed.

01:37:31.120 --> 01:37:32.120 It doesn't work.

01:37:32.120 --> 01:37:34.320 Johnny Appleseed totally failed.

01:37:34.320 --> 01:37:39.360 So why was he so, like, is it just because we didn't know all this other stuff?

01:37:39.360 --> 01:37:41.160 He really was pushing this.

01:37:41.160 --> 01:37:46.760 Even at the time, even at his time, we knew this, but he was promoting, like, no, we need

01:37:46.760 --> 01:37:52.440 to be planting apples from seeds, and he really tried to sell it, and he went out west and

01:37:52.440 --> 01:37:57.120 planted seeds everywhere, and he set up an institute to promote the whole idea of growing

01:37:57.120 --> 01:37:59.560 apples from seeds, and it didn't work.

01:37:59.560 --> 01:38:01.120 He never got it to work.

01:38:01.120 --> 01:38:02.120 Yes.

01:38:02.120 --> 01:38:03.120 And he never abandoned it?

01:38:03.120 --> 01:38:04.120 No, I guess not.

01:38:04.120 --> 01:38:05.120 I don't know.

01:38:05.120 --> 01:38:06.120 Oh, he's a con artist then.

01:38:06.120 --> 01:38:08.240 Or he had a lot of motivated reasoning.

01:38:08.240 --> 01:38:10.240 Yeah, a ton of it.

01:38:10.240 --> 01:38:11.240 I don't know.

01:38:11.240 --> 01:38:12.240 It's going to work, damn it.

01:38:12.240 --> 01:38:16.040 Yeah, a late-life conversion or whatever, but from what I was reading, it's like, nope,

01:38:16.040 --> 01:38:21.600 he really pushed the whole apples from seeds thing, and it didn't work.

01:38:21.600 --> 01:38:22.880 It never worked.

01:38:22.880 --> 01:38:23.880 That bastard.

01:38:23.880 --> 01:38:27.600 And we don't do that because it's not a good idea.

01:38:27.600 --> 01:38:28.600 You know what?

01:38:28.600 --> 01:38:31.320 How many apple seed is dead to me?

01:38:31.320 --> 01:38:36.760 It's for the same reason that apples don't do well when they self-pollinate.

01:38:36.760 --> 01:38:40.560 If you cross-pollinate with other varieties, they do much better.

01:38:40.560 --> 01:38:44.920 And I experienced that firsthand, because I had one apple tree in my backyard.

01:38:44.920 --> 01:38:50.400 The tree is big, healthy, beautiful, and produced crap, these small few apples.

01:38:50.400 --> 01:38:53.280 Then I planted, and I read about it, and I'm like, oh, I've got to plant another freaking

01:38:53.280 --> 01:38:54.280 apple tree.

01:38:54.280 --> 01:38:59.000 I planted another apple tree next to it of a different variety, and I make sure I got

01:38:59.000 --> 01:39:04.720 a good match with the original, and it had a dramatic effect on my apple tree production.

01:39:04.720 --> 01:39:06.000 It had a dramatic effect.

01:39:06.000 --> 01:39:09.160 I produce hundreds of big apples now.

01:39:09.160 --> 01:39:10.160 What the hell?

01:39:10.160 --> 01:39:12.400 What selective pressures would do that?

01:39:12.400 --> 01:39:14.080 I don't know that it was a selective pressure.

01:39:14.080 --> 01:39:18.000 First of all, it doesn't really matter to the apple.

01:39:18.000 --> 01:39:19.760 It still works for the apple.

01:39:19.760 --> 01:39:22.760 Animals will still eat it and spread the seeds.

01:39:22.760 --> 01:39:25.760 But fewer apples means fewer chances of spreading your seeds.

01:39:25.760 --> 01:39:26.760 No, but the thing is-

01:39:26.760 --> 01:39:28.400 Is it fewer or just lower quality?

01:39:28.400 --> 01:39:29.680 That's an artificial thing, Bob.

01:39:29.680 --> 01:39:37.600 It's because I have this cultivar that was selected to be a clone.

01:39:37.600 --> 01:39:43.360 Now I have a tree that's producing basically clones, and that's why it doesn't work well.

01:39:43.360 --> 01:39:47.760 But a wild apple tree would already have more variation built in, so it would be fine.

01:39:47.760 --> 01:39:50.880 And it would probably also be not growing alone.

01:39:50.880 --> 01:39:52.320 Yeah, right.

01:39:52.320 --> 01:39:54.920 Like a wild apple tree would be growing with other wild apple trees.

01:39:54.920 --> 01:39:55.920 Anyway, it doesn't matter.

01:39:55.920 --> 01:40:01.320 Johnny Appleseed doesn't give a crap if he is in a position to give anything, because

01:40:01.320 --> 01:40:04.920 no one's going to be talking about us in 150 years.

01:40:04.920 --> 01:40:05.920 He's a pure seedoscientist.

01:40:05.920 --> 01:40:06.920 Nice.

01:40:06.920 --> 01:40:07.920 Nice.

01:40:07.920 --> 01:40:16.400 It says here online that the only surviving tree he planted is on the farm in Richards

01:40:16.400 --> 01:40:18.400 in Phyllis, Allegro, Nova, Ohio.

01:40:18.400 --> 01:40:19.400 Wow.

01:40:19.400 --> 01:40:20.400 Just one.

01:40:20.400 --> 01:40:21.400 Only one.

01:40:21.400 --> 01:40:22.400 Yeah.

01:40:22.400 --> 01:40:23.400 Every tree he planted.

01:40:23.400 --> 01:40:24.400 Yeah.

01:40:24.400 --> 01:40:25.400 I mean, he's the guy with the pot on his head, right?

01:40:25.400 --> 01:40:26.400 I don't know why he wore a pot on his head.

01:40:26.400 --> 01:40:27.400 See, this is why I thought he was just in children's books.

01:40:27.400 --> 01:40:28.400 Come on, you guys.

01:40:28.400 --> 01:40:33.400 I will never look at him the same way again.

01:40:33.400 --> 01:40:40.400 But yeah, but he was a serious apple scientist who just was wrong.

01:40:40.400 --> 01:40:41.400 It's okay.

01:40:41.400 --> 01:40:42.400 It's okay to be wrong.

01:40:42.400 --> 01:40:43.400 Okay.

Skeptical Quote of the Week ()

TEXT
– AUTHOR (YYYY-YYYY), _short_description_

01:40:43.400 --> 01:40:44.400 Evan, give us a quote.

01:40:44.400 --> 01:40:48.960 Many people seem to confuse cynicism with skepticism and believe that critical thinking

01:40:48.960 --> 01:40:52.480 results in a negative attitude about life.

01:40:52.480 --> 01:40:59.440 However, this opinion rests on a number of mistaken assumptions about the nature of skepticism.

01:40:59.440 --> 01:41:03.600 Skeptics must correct these misconceptions if they hope for the wider application of

01:41:03.600 --> 01:41:05.440 critical thinking.

01:41:05.440 --> 01:41:11.840 That was written by Phil Mole, who is a columnist at Skeptical Inquirer Magazine, among other

01:41:11.840 --> 01:41:14.400 skeptical magazines out there.

01:41:14.400 --> 01:41:17.160 This is back from 2002, 20 years old.

01:41:17.160 --> 01:41:18.160 20 years old.

01:41:18.160 --> 01:41:19.160 20 years ago.

01:41:19.160 --> 01:41:20.160 Wow.

01:41:20.160 --> 01:41:21.160 Yeah.

01:41:21.160 --> 01:41:25.280 I mean, he's correct, but it's one thing to say, yeah, we should do this.

01:41:25.280 --> 01:41:27.940 We should correct that misconception.

01:41:27.940 --> 01:41:29.160 Here we are 20 years later.

01:41:29.160 --> 01:41:31.160 I don't know that we figured out a way to do that.

01:41:31.160 --> 01:41:32.160 Yeah.

01:41:32.160 --> 01:41:33.160 You know?

01:41:33.160 --> 01:41:34.160 Yeah.

01:41:34.160 --> 01:41:35.160 It's easier said than done.

01:41:35.160 --> 01:41:36.160 It's like, yeah, somebody should do that.

01:41:36.160 --> 01:41:37.160 Yeah.

01:41:37.160 --> 01:41:38.160 Yeah, it's easier said than done.

01:41:38.160 --> 01:41:39.160 Yeah.

01:41:39.160 --> 01:41:44.360 And actually, it's arguably worse because since then, the deniers have hijacked the

01:41:44.360 --> 01:41:47.840 word skeptic in a very negative way.

01:41:47.840 --> 01:41:53.080 So it's still, unfortunately, a brand with a lot of baggage.

01:41:53.080 --> 01:41:54.080 But it's ours.

01:41:54.080 --> 01:41:55.080 Damn it.

01:41:55.080 --> 01:41:56.080 Yeah.

01:41:56.080 --> 01:41:57.080 And we'll keep working at it forever.

01:41:57.080 --> 01:41:58.080 Right.

01:41:58.080 --> 01:41:59.080 Or we'll switch over to something else like the brights.

01:41:59.080 --> 01:42:00.080 That will work out.

01:42:00.080 --> 01:42:01.080 Oh, God.

01:42:01.080 --> 01:42:03.120 I thought we said we'd never mention that again.

01:42:03.120 --> 01:42:04.120 Yeah.

01:42:04.120 --> 01:42:05.120 Yeah.

01:42:05.120 --> 01:42:06.120 Oh, well.

Signoff (1:42:06)

01:42:06.120 --> 01:42:07.120 Have we fully told that story?

01:42:07.120 --> 01:42:08.120 Have we?

01:42:08.120 --> 01:42:09.120 Yeah.

01:42:09.120 --> 01:42:10.120 It's a symptom of the same problem.

01:42:10.120 --> 01:42:13.240 That's why they were trying to come up with a different term because it's like, we need

01:42:13.240 --> 01:42:15.120 a term that doesn't have the baggage.

01:42:15.120 --> 01:42:18.120 And we'll come up with one that has different, worse baggage.

01:42:18.120 --> 01:42:19.120 Oh, gosh.

01:42:19.120 --> 01:42:22.120 It's pretentious and annoying.

01:42:22.120 --> 01:42:24.520 Asia, thanks for joining us again.

01:42:24.520 --> 01:42:25.520 Yeah.

01:42:25.520 --> 01:42:26.520 It was a lot of fun to have you on the show.

01:42:26.520 --> 01:42:27.520 Thank you, Asia.

01:42:27.520 --> 01:42:28.520 Thanks for having me.

01:42:28.520 --> 01:42:30.040 And thank you all for joining me this week.

01:42:30.040 --> 01:42:31.040 Thanks, Dr.

01:42:31.040 --> 01:42:32.040 Well, thank you, Steve.

01:42:32.040 --> 01:42:33.040 All righty, then.

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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