SGU Episode 861

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SGU Episode 861
January 8th 2022
(brief caption for the episode icon)
SGU 860                      SGU 862
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
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Introduction

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Thursday, January 6^th, 2022, and this is your host, Steven Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella ...

B: Hey, everybody!

S: Cara Santa Maria...

C: Howdy.

S: Jay Novella ...

J: Hey guys.

S: Evan Bernstein ...

E: Welcome to the New Year everyone!

S: Yep, first show of 2022 although technically last weeks episode aired on January 1^st but it was recorded in 2021 so this is the first show recorded in 2022. We had a couple of weeks brake from our regular show and it seems like so much has happened.

C: Oh yeah, we're like 'In Memoriam' oh shit E. O. Wilson died like all this stuff happened right after we recorded.

S: And Betty White almost made it to 100.

B: Oh my god.

C: Days away.

J: How close can you get man.

E: So close. Legendary John Madden you know him from football or playing the video game Madden NFL football. We lost him too, so a lot of people.

S: And we were talking about all the political figures that died and then Harry Reid died. Kinda the same generation, you know as a lot of the other politicians who we've lost during 2021. So yea that was you know that little week before the end of the year a lot of notable people died. Let's see what else, what else is happening.

(laughter)

E: I got sick as a dog with covid, there was that.

S: The SGU's perfect streak of not catching covid was broken.

J: I know.

E: Gone.

S: Not just once, but twice. Jay, right?

B: Oh my god.

E: I apparently got something in my stocking on Christmas Eve and I pulled it out and it was covid, so there it was for me.

B: I don't know what it is it, I feel spiky.

J: So Steve just told me that the last show we recorded, so when was that Steve?

S: December 22^nd when we recorded the Year End Review show and jay was coughing through the whole thing.

J: Got a light version of it, just a bad head cold, no breathing problems at all, and then horrible fatigue.

E: Oh yes, the fatigue was brutal for me as well.

J: I'm still kinda dealing with it to be honest with you, like you know I have the bottom drop out and when it drops out I fall asleep, like I'm done.

E: Yeah, I felt it for about 10 days, only at the 10^th day did I finally feel I was 95% back to where I was prior.

C: And you guys are all fully vaccinated.

J: I'm boosted, yeah.

E: Yeah, I got my booster just a couple of days prior.

C: More of my friends have covid right now then at any other course in this pandemic. Very likely because I tend to associate with people who are vaccinated, right? And I think that Omicron is managing somehow to overwhelm the immune system even if you're vaccinated. Luckily even though we're seeing hospitals rates going way way way up I don't think we're seeing the sickest of the sick going up. We're not seeing deaths going up.

J: No, the death [inaudible]

E: I don't wanna imagine how it would've felt if I did not have my vaccinations and my booster. That would've been horrific.

J: But you know to get covid after two years of changing the way I live my life I was really disappointed, you know. I felt angry, you know I was talking to Steve quite a bit over vacation, kept calling Steve just like saying 'here's how I'm feeling today, what do you think about this' like just trying to get like more of a professional but I had it I'm like oh my god, I was like so depressed. But then Steve said you know it's super catchy it's very very easy to catch. And that made me feel a little bit better.

B: 18 times?

S: At the begging of the pandemic we were talking about how contagious covid is, Omicron variant is 18 times more contagious than the baseline. Yeah, it's super contagious.

C: I think that experience that you had Jay is really common it's something I've been talking about with patients it's something I've been talking about a lot with my friends lately is this feeling almost of personal failure this feeling of guilt and shame which I think we really really need to work society wide to reduce. You know I don't think we should go so far as to say well everyone is gonna catch it so whatever. I think that that's kinda of unhealthy view as well although there is a chance you will get it, you should still continue to be as safe as possible and to do all of the risk preventions things that you've been doing if not more. But if you do catch it it's not cause you didn't try hard enough. You did everything right.

J: Yeah, I mean that's what scary about it, that's the conclusion I came to cause you know I didn't have like a flagrant, like I'm gonna go out without my mask on, which I would never do, or I'm gonna hang out with people that I suspect could have it, like, I didn't brake any of the protocols that kept me healthy for two years and after I got over the initial shock and like wow this fire is, is in my body now, it's freaky when you get it, because, it's a head game. You just sit there and you're like I've got covid I got that thing, you know, that I've been trying to fight against the last two years. But then you know luckily when I got it, and Evan, same with you, we were vaccinated, so percentage of the danger was eliminated. And then knowing how catchy it is, you know I'm like, you know you're right Cara, I did everything I freaking could do and I still got it like what did I do wrong?

C: It's doing what a good virus does, a good virus evolves to be really easy to catch but not kill it's hosts.

B: Yeah, that's kind of a classic.

S: That tends to be how pandemics burn themselves out because the selective pressure are for infectivity not deadliness and so over time that's just by statistics alone that's where the viruses going to head. But I agree, you don't judge outcomes, you judge by actions, and so as long as you're being safe and and you're fully vaccinated and boosted if you get it, at some point it's a luck of the draw. You know I'm extremely careful, I'm actually even a little surprised I've made it two years without getting it.

B: Yeah, your scenario.

S: I you know cause I work with people every day and I have to do procedures, I have to get in people's face, that's just the nature of my job. And would not surprise me if despite my best efforts I still get it at some point.

B: What are you wearing Steve on your face when you're like in someone's face?

S: The medical masks.

C: Surgical masks.

S: They have this like triple layer like really thick surgical mask that really fits to your face very well.

B: Well compare it to a N95, is it better?

C: No.

S: It's not quite as good as an N95 but N95 are just they're just very difficult to talk through for me so but the heavy duty medical masks, surgical masks are fine.

B: I've been double masking. Whenever I go out. I'm double masked, I have my N95 on and over that I've got my cool cloth one that's got something creepy on it.

S: That's a good idea.

C But make sure you're doing it that direction, you're right Bob.

B: Oh absolutely, I was out with my mom─

C: Don't put the cloth under the N95. That completely─

E: Well that would defeat the whole purpose.

B: I was showing my mum, I was showing my mum and she puts the cloth, you know the cloth one on first and I like 'noooo!' that defeats the purpose. But the real important thing here is like Christmas was kind of like blown out of the water for the Novella family. So I spent this is my Christmas Eve, first time ever just me and my mom and we binged an entire season of {{w|Ink Master} Christmas Eve.

(laughter)

B: And then Christmas Day we did the next season goddamn binged a whole season and it was fun, we had a blast together and you know I still would've loved to like seen everybody that we have been planning but no, it wasn't a bit.

C: I got my hands on one of those Nintendo Classics that came out a few years ago, so it's basically the NES but shrunk down.

B: Nice, yes!

C: So instead of using cartridges all the games are preloaded. Hint, you can get them hacked online and they like load them with thousands of games.

E: Oh gosh, get lost in that one.

C: Yeah, I played a lot of Dr. Mario,a lot of Mario 3, a lot of Kid Icarus, yeah, all my favorite games, it was fun, it was fun Christmas all alone. I enjoyed it, but it was sad, I mean I think things are, things are different now and we're sort of trying to get used to it. I have a fear and Steve I'm curious how you feel about this, not a severe fear but being kind of in the first cohort of people getting vaccinated I'm afraid my booster is not effective anymore. Like I got boosted back in October.

S: Yeah I mean I would say it's gonna last at least 6 months.

C: I hope so.

S: The data suggest that but it could last even longer. the antibody response is great so hopefully the duration [inaudible].

E: That would make sense.

S: So, we'll see. I mean we'll have to wait and see.

C: Do you see this as being and I know will get there with predictions and stuff but as being sort of like ok you get your covid shot every year just like you get your flu shot.

B: Oh yeah, no question.

C: Like eventually we're gonna be [inaudible].

B:' No question in my mind.

C: I just hope that the next booster that becomes available is not the same formulation.

S: They'll iterate it. They're already working on it.

C: Yeah, like it's good good good.

S: We'll see I mean I think they could've done it for this one but they base of the evidence says if you get boosted you're antibody are so high it will protect you from Omicron. So they didn't bother manufacturing the next version but I think they're gearing up to do that.

C: Yet a lot of people are getting Omicron even with their booster, they're just not getting that sick.

S: They're just not getting sick which is fine.

C: Well they're getting sick still, they're just not getting as sick.

S: Yeah, yeah yeah, I mean they're not getting like going to the hospital sick.

E: At no point did I feel I had to go to the hospital of my wife Jennifer or my daughter Rachel, we all had it. And none of uf got to that point where we felt that bad.

C: But my concern is that we're still looking at the risk benefit analysis at acute disease, and we're not very often talking─

B: Long covid.

C: ─about long covid and the concerns about that.

S: Oh I know.

C: So you know maybe you only get mild to moderate illness that doesn't land you in the ICU and you don't have to be on a vent but you're dealing with fatigue for six months, nine months you're dealing with cognitive symptoms downstream. I mean it's still not something that we want.

S: Yeah there are some people who don't get their sense of taste and smell back or they don't get it the same like it's screwed up when it recovers and then like food tastes horrible, so there's lots of disability lots of what we call morbidity you know it's not just life or death if you survive you still may be dealing with you know chronic symptoms. It's definitely part of the toll of this disease.

E: Jay I lost some of my covid weight because I lost a lot of my appetite during the course of that ten days so my food consumption went way down.

J: That is so weird Ev, because I, I actually took note that my appetite went up.

(laughter)

E: Of course it did Jay.

J: I'm dead serious, I got hungrier.

E: Oh no, oh I've lost my appetite.

J: Like I felt like my body needed I was weird hungry you know like I was just hungry all the time.

B: Pickles and ice-cream.

J: Which is not that far of my baseline. But still I was hungrier.

Psychic Predictions (10:44)

S: All right so the first episode that we record in each year we do our psychic prediction review. We look back over the predictions made for the previous year to see how psychics did. This is always just a bit of fun cause they of course uniformly do horrible cause (laughter)there's no such thing a s the real psychic. But you know we do like to look at patterns to see, I like to brake it down, there's a few types of predictions that people make, there are ones that are crazy for entertainment purposes only an like nobody expects them to come true. You know what I mean like 'Bigfoot will be discovered', just crazy ass shit that is like just the prediction is purely the entertainment. Then there are those who are like trying to be successful as alleged psychics predicting the future where they make high probability predictions, right. Like things that any reasonable person could make a guess.

C: Things that happen every year.

S: Yeah, exactly, 'there's gonna be a major earthquake in Europe', yeah, it happens every year. And then there's the throw shit against the wall and hope that something sticks. Right just make a bunch wacky ass predictions and then just only remind people about the ones you got right in retrospect.

E: Yeah, that's the psychology of it.

S: Yeah, so it's usually one of those things, so, I'll note that and I looked, I don't think any psychic you know nailed any of the big events you know 2021 that's always the first one what they didn't predict. There was definitely a theme, there was a strong theme of psychics predicting that covid that the pandemic was gonna go away in 2021.

C: I saw that.

E: Yes I saw that as well.

S: That was clear. That was like a and they were just again, that was a high probability, oh, we have the vaccine, so yeah by the end of the year things should be better, so that's a pretty safe prediction, not. Completely got it wrong. One even said the variants will be no big deal like no, completely wrong. I didn't see, I've read dozens and dozens of predictions about 2021 and the pandemic I didn't read anyone where whey got it substantially correct, they sort of thought that 2021 would be the end of the pandemic.

C: Yeah it's true, I think there was a couple people, I think I saw something on like more of a political prediction site, that was like things aren't gonna be any better next year. But that was really rare. I think they're just like we hoped, we wanted things to be better. So of course that's gonna be what we tended towards. I looked at the people who write up Nostradamus's predictions. Those always make me laugh.

E: Still doing it, huh?

C: Yeah every I guess how long did the almanac go for? Cause there's some 2021 here. And my favorite is when you have to actually find that they're date stamped at the beginning of the year. You can't find something now to say 'this is what I said'.

S: That's the whole point. Gotta be what they said at the beginning of the year.

E: You gotta find the January 2021.

C: Very important. So let's see a global famine, solar storms in asteroids, I love this one, because the interpretations are almost as fun as the original writing, right? Cause I think this is, Nostradamus was so like French, yeah. 460 somewhat years ago was when he wrote Les Propheties and if you read the original translation, I mean it's like:

'The sloping park, great calamity, Through the Lands of the West and Lombardy The fire in the ship, plague and captivity; Mercury in Sagittarius, Saturn fading.'

And the interpretation here 'an earthquake will destroy California'.

(laughter)

C: The lens of the West! Will have great calamity.

E: There's nothing like vaguery to make predictions come true.

C: Right. And this one's my favorite one that did not come true, here we go:

'Few young people: half-dead to give a start. Dead through spite, he will cause the others to shine, And in an exalted place some great evils to occur.'

So this has been viewed as 'the Zombie Apocalypse' occurring in 2021.

B: Oh my god.

S: Remember when that happened?

C: Unfortunately. Would've been fun.

S: the other kind of prediction that that I forgot to mention is the absolutely vague like completely nebulous 'people will be more interested in traveling in 2021'. Ok... Or 'people will be interested in connecting with one another like all that kind of vague stuff that's completely unfalsifiable.

E: General sense of harmony will abound.

C: I's horoscope predictions, it's like the astrology of like 'be especially prudent in your business dealings'.

S: Duh.

B: Especially.

E: High grade fortune cookie. Yeah, exactly. So I went with Jemima Packington, we've talked about her before, the asparamancer. She's the one who throws the asparagus on the floor and claims to make predictions.

S: It's as good as any other method.

E: Absolutely, you know, I gotta hand it to her, at least she's original. She came up with something nobody else did so I'll give her points for originality. She spoke of Covid-19 early in the year and she says that the vaccines will bring a return to the new normal by June of 2021.

S: Yey!

E: Although not the full return to pre-pandemic days. And like Steve, Steve like you were saying, no that was kind of in tune with what all the psychics were sort of saying about it and no.

S: It was both high probability and wrong, right?

E: You're right.

C: (laughs)

B: Which are the best.

S: It was a lazy prediction. A very lazy prediction.

E: Totally. Now, being from Great Britain of course there's a lot of things having to do with royals. She says at least two divorces. An Harry will return to the UK on his own in March where he will be advised to not be an extension to his current terms. I have no idea really what that means.

C: What?

E: But Harry did not go back to the Royal Family in March and you know there was nothing like that. An the two divorces. I don't think that happened, I looked it up, I couldn't find any royal divorces. She also said former president Trump will be disowned by the GOP members because of his appalling handling of the US domestic situation. That did not happen either. She said that Queen Elizabeth II will make big announcements in June on her birthday. No, she didn't because she was basically saying there that she was gonna going to either semi-retirement or full retirement and make announcements that Charles will take over soon. Nope, didn't happen. And but this one she got right at least in one sense - a spate of ill hull among royals of age. Well you know Prince, Elizabeth's husband Philip did die late in the year. But of all age, no, I didn't read anything else about any of the royals otherwise having some major health issues. So she was for the most part entirely wrong.

S: Here's a question: what 1973 movie takes place in 2022?

B: What year?

S: 1973.

E: Battle of Planet of the Apes.

B: That's gotta be the Soylent Green.

C: Soylent Green.

S: Soylent Green, Soylent Green, good job. So that was an interesting vision of 2022, massive overpopulation, climate change already wrecking the planet and mass supply dificulties, food shortages.

B: Yeah but very you know there's lots of and very delicious you know chips to eat.

S: Soylent Green, yeah. And also Soylent Red and Soylent Yellow.

E: And the new Soylent─

B: Oh wait I forgot about those other ones, wait, are they in the movie?

E: Red and Yellow, absolutely.

S: Green was the new version, just was coming out.

E: Yeah, the latest greatest.

B: What was the Red and Yellow then? What were they made of?

S: They're made of people!

B: Those too?

S: Yeah I don't who knows.

(laughter)

S: Ostensibly made of plankton but we know the truth.

(laughter)

E: You're dragged away screaming if you know the truth though. Spoiler alter.

S: Does anybody have any other psychics they wanna report or should we go to our predictions.

B: Real quick I have I got Psychic Nikki, Psychic Nikki was good she had─

S: Yeah she's a favorite.

B: She got a good run. Like a 'Future holds good news for the state of the planet, the planets gonna be, it's gonna be cleaned up! It will be cleaner─

C: What?

B: ─healthier planet and the population will get healthier. No comment even needed. The other two where even better, she said 'Some people might not wanna be vaccinated but the majority will, and I think it will start definitely by the Fall, definitely.'.

E: Well, 51%?

C: The majority of people at least in the US are vaccinated.

S: Not in every state but yeah.

B: When you go global, it's horrible. And let's see her confidence is definitely misplaced. Here this one of course really struck home for me and my mum. 'People can look forward to a much more festive and celebratory holiday season in 2021. I think we're gonna have a much better Christmas next year, Christmas and New Year's.' says Nikki.

J: Not even close.

B: Yeah, if two seasons of Ink Master is very celebratory. (laughter) So no, but they were good seasons, gotta say, it was fun.

J: I didn't go to psychics, I found myself interested in predictions that people made I guess you can call this political predictions or social predictions. So the former Prime Minister of Ireland he said this late in 2020 about 2021. He said: 'With the vaccine with masks, testing and with the knowledge how to prevent and treat this virus I think the pandemic will end in 2021.'

B: Uff, flat out end.

J: You're incorrect sir.

S: You are a wrong Sir, good day Sir! <<--is this a Willy Wonka reference?-->>

J: And then you guys know who Scott, Scott Adams is, right?

B: Yeah.

S: Yeah.

E: Oh yes.

J: He's the guy who deas the Dilbert Comic and he said in July 'If Biden is elected, there's a good chance you will be dead within the year. Republicans will be hunted. Police will stand down.

C: Pff, that happened.

E: Ok...

J: Yeah, that happened.

E: Paranoia right there.

J: Yeah I mean everybody overdoes the insanity predictions of a you know the new president coming in for the most part.

E: Trying to stand out, right.

'J: It's just a ridiculous, bunch of ridiculous statements. You know I gotta tell you like when I look at the psychic predictions versus like a whole boatload of political predictions that have been made the political predictions are actually a lot more interesting, cause they are actually saying something. You know like these two are great examples. They're saying something that's tangible. Like you know the pandemic is gonna end, you know like, no it's not. Most of the predictions are what you say Steve they're very general, they're blaze, they're hedging their bets. I find that to be very boring, you know. I like it when somebody says this specific thing is gonna happen I think that has a lot more wight to it.

S: Of course.

E: Like what we, that's what we do every year. We come up with ours.

J: That's right.

C: I think my favorite along those lines Jay and I think I know kind of like where you're sourcing some of yours has to do with an article that was published in Egypt Today in September of 2020, they were referring to the Suez Canal and they said 'With improved equipment, it is expected that there will also be improved and safer navigation along the canal.' And then what five months later that container ship got stuck for six days.

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S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

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