SGU Episode 85

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SGU Episode 85
March 7th 2007
(brief caption for the episode icon)
SGU 84                      SGU 86
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
R: Rebecca Watson
E: Evan Bernstein
P: Perry DeAngelis
Quote of the Week
The deepest sin against the human mind is to believe things without evidence.
Thomas Henry Huxley
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction

You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

News Items

New study published in JAMA compared popular diet plans (1:25)

• www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070307075749.htm

Marilyn Schlitz and the True Believers Strike back at the SGU (10:56)

• www.skeptiko.com/index.php?id=11

S: The next item—now this comes—actually, several of our listeners sent this to us and it was also posted on the message board by a couple of people. There is a podcast—a relatively new podcast out there called "Skeptiko", with a K. Although, it's actually—

P: Booo!

S: Although, it's actually only pretending to be skeptical. I mean, it's not really a skeptical podcast; it's basically being run by believers in the paranormal.

R: It's hysterical; it's like Sylvia Browne wearing a beard and glasses and showing up at TAM (laughs) claiming to be Randi.

P: It is.

E: Calling herself the skeptic psychic or whatever.

R: (laughing) Right.

S: It's a bait and switch. But the reason why they were sending us notification of this is because on one of the episodes, they interviewed Marilyn Schlitz, and Marilyn was on our podcast about a year ago^{[link needed]}. And they actually included a clip from the Skeptics' Guide—it actually wasn't the episode where we interviewed her, but one a few weeks later, I think, where we mentioned her as we were talking about something. And they used a clip of that, basically to bash me for being a bad skeptic—being a closed-minded evil skeptic.

E: Well, you used the word "kook".

S: I did use the word "kook". So, let me... it's worth reviewing, because it's actually very dangerous

B: You didn't say "kook".

S: I said she has some kooky beliefs, which is different and not

B: Key difference there.

S: I think this is very useful to discuss, because it's very interesting to listen to the pro-paranormal crowd, especially those that try to be scientific, not the really bizarre anti-scientific ones, but the ones who really think that they're being scientific. And how they talk about skeptics it says a lot about the differences in the culture... also sometimes they say things that are eerily reminiscent of the kind of things we might say.

B: Yes.

S: For example, explaining why they believe what they do and their thinking that they need to sociologically explain why skeptics are the way they are. Because obviously, it's not based upon the evidence, right? So—

B: They even—she even says that, Steve; she says, regarding your comments, "where's the evidence?" and I just almost fell out of my car when I heard that.

E/P: (chuckling)

S: So, the comment that they used of mine, which I think they used completely out of context—we were talking about the fact that people who believe in one paranormal thing tend to believe in other paranormal things; they tend to believe in usually a very large number of paranormal things, because they have a different approach. They have a different—I said "world view". And I used Marilyn Schlitz as an example because she had recently been on our show. We were talking to her mainly about psi phenomenon and ESP, but it's not as if she is a practicing scientist who believes in ESP and otherwise has fairly mainstream views. She also believes in a lot of other paranormal things, which I characterize as "other kooky beliefs". For example, she is very compelled by the evidence for distant healing, and she spends a lot of her time researching these things. And I think that that says something about the overall world view and approach people take. There's a reason why skeptics believe in none of these things and so-called either "true believers" or paranormal proponents believe all of them. That was the point I was making. But they used that sentence and they sort of took it out of context to say that 1) that by saying that Marilyn "has some kooky beliefs", that that was an ad hominem attack against her, which is not true.

B: The quote was, "almost an ad hominem attack".

E: (laughs)

S: Almost?

B: Just to be accurate.

S: What does that mean? They also said that I was—

R: It's like that woman who was almost pregnant.

S: Right.

(laughing)

S: That I was dismissing the belief and her research and her credentials and dismissing the evidence, which...

E: She has none.

S: That is completely unfair. That's completely unfair, to say that we're dismissive; either us at the skeptical community in general, that we as a group, that me personally. I mean, seriously.

R: Yeah. The quote that they picked was from a conversation where we were discussing why people are the way they are and nothing to do with specifically what Marilyn has been researching.

S: Right. And it was just one point; it was just the point that these beliefs tend to go together, and guess what? They do. You know, Marilyn does believe a lot of these other things. The people on the show are endorsing a whole host of beliefs, not just one belief in isolation. So, they didn't contradict the actual point that I was making. But to say that we dismiss these things out of hand or "without examining the evidence" is completely intellectually dishonest. I mean, there's a hundred hours of the Skeptics' Guide online that you can listen to to see what we actually say about stuff. And if that's too much time to invest before you come to an opinion, there are dozens of articles that we've published on the New England Skeptical Society website. I mean, we've really pretty thoroughly documented our views on these topics. Bob wrote an article—a three-part article examining the plausibility of ESP. There are comprehensive reviews; we actually interviewed Ray Hyman for a very long time and in detail went over the problems with the actual evidence for ESP and psi phenomenon. So to characterize our approach to this topic as "dismissing it" and "being closed-minded" is really... you know, sloppy—

P: It's absurd.

S: It's intellectually sloppy.

P: It's absurd.

S: It's unfair, and it's actually interesting, because if you pull back and say, "what is really the essence of our criticism of the pro-paranormal crowd?" It's basically that they're a little too credulous; they are not appropriately skeptical; they don't have an appreciation for the pitfalls of human thinking and memory and logic.

B: That's key, right there.

S: They tend to be, at times, use methodologies which are not rigorous enough; they are... the worst of them are intellectually sloppy, use logical fallacies. And commonly what happens is when we criticize them for, basically, poor scholarship and poor science, then they say, "that's not true" and then they defend themselves by employing logical fallacies and sloppy scholarship.

E: Other than that, they're great!

(laughing)

E: They're right on target.

R: You know, I think you could boil all that down to one simple thing, which is just: there's no evidence.

S: Yeah, although that's an over-simplification, in that there is evidence, but the evidence has serious problems and is not compelling. Like, we talked about Dean Radin's evaluation of the pear research; this .02%. You know, they point to that as evidence.

R: OK, then switch "no" to "insufficient".

(laughing)

S: Yeah, it's not compelling; it's not sufficient; it's not compelling; there are problems with the evidence—

P: Pathetically lacking.

S: So, we, in detail, go over that evidence. Let me give you one other example of... which struck me as this real hypocrisy that I was talking about. So, right on the heels—right on the heels of accusing me of an ad hominem attack and being dismissive, Marilyn basically said—her response to that was that I lack emotional intelligence.

B: That was nasty.

S: Which was... an ad hominem attack.

E: (laughs)

R: But Steve, you know it's true.

B: That's right! I didn't pick up on that one.

S: Come on! That was blatant hypocrisy. She basically went right from saying... She actually was trying not to get too upset about it; she said she didn't take it personally; blah blah blah. It was more the interviewer was being more negative. But basically—

P: He was prodding her.

S: —they went from talking about that to making a blatant ad hominem attack, so. Which, not that I care about, but again it's just... come on, be consistent at least.

R: If they're going to cherry-pick quotes from the show, there are so many better ad hominem attacks... (laughs)

S: I know!

R: I mean... I can give you some now, like "Sylvia Browne is a hag." There. Take that out... (laughs)

(laughing)

R: —and say that that's the only reason why I don't like her. (laughs) There's your ad hominem attack.

B: Steve, I got a couple points.

S: Go ahead, Bob.

B: Just a couple points from listening to this nasty little thing a couple times. One was... first off, I think that these guys—these two people—you know, Marilyn Schlitz and Alex Tsakiris—I believe you pronounce his name—they need tougher skin.

S: Yeah.

B: Alex was saying... he calls what Steve said "personal attacks" and "resorting to this kind of smear". Marilyn—

S: Smear. Cry me a river. Come on.

B: Marilyn called it "dismissing by character assassination", what you said, and "going for almost an ad hominem attack". Now, here's Steve's exact quote: "she also believes in a lot of kooky things—a whole suite of kooky things". Now that quote—they're calling these character assassination? Personal attacks? Come on; toughen up a little bit.

S: The other thing—yeah, you're right, Bob; and you know what? Just to extend that a little bit, if they—and this is from pretty hard-core skeptical person group and show, but quite honestly, if you just talk to rank-and-file scientists who aren't involved in "skepticism", they would absolutely eviscerate those kind of people and that kind of research. They would do it in no uncertain terms in a very dismissive attitude. So actually... which is not really a defense, it's just saying that science is a very critical endeavor, you know? It's not just all positive.

B: Right.

S: You have to hack away what doesn't work.

B: Your colleagues are there to take you down. That is their goal!

P: Right.

E: Yeah.

S: Right.

B: And one more little thing here. Marilyn goes on at one point talking about her discourse analysis of skeptic proponent debate. Apparently for her post-doc fellowship, she did... I don't know if it was a paper or some study that she did on this discourse analysis—basically, she analyzes skeptical arguments to find patterns and markers that signify things like dismissal. So, the fact that these exist, though, say nothing about the quality of the arguments, so I'm not sure why she even brought that up. I mean, shouldn't she have been looking for markers like, say, logical fallacies commonly found in skeptical discourse? Good luck finding them in Steve's arguments. But let me get to her quote, though. She says—regarding Steve's quote, she says that there's some markers of a dismissal, "an attempt to undermine me, where he says 'maybe she has a PhD; maybe she's a serious scientist', so he's automatically bracketing some doubt around my credentials or qualities." Now I think she needs to do a little more discourse analysis, because that's not what Steve said, and this is a critical difference. Steve said, "she may have a PhD", not "maybe". "She may have a PhD; may be a serious researcher, but she also believes a lot of kooky things." Now, the whole point of what Steve said was not to impugn her credentials, but to she that having a PhD does not mean you're a critical thinker. She totally misinterpreted what he said.

S: Yeah. Right.

E: Yeah, well, she got defensive.

P: Misinterpreted it? She—

S: Making my point, actually, in doing so. She said a couple of other things during the interview that are worth pointing out. She invoked quantum mechanics—

B: Oh, my God; she pulled the quantum card; I couldn't believe it.

S: —to say that we don't know how things really work...

B: I was waiting for it, actually. OK.

S: So she was saying that, you know, we don't really know how the universe works; that quantum mechanics is mysterious. So, basically making an argument from ignorance, that "we don't know stuff", so that we can't make reasoned judgments about whether or not any of these things are likely to be true or not. We have to just sort of wallow in our ignorance.

E: Complete relativism.

S: She also was very coy, you know; saying—she actually backed away from her beliefs, saying that "I don't believe everything that I research." Fair enough; you don't necessarily have to have a belief in it, but in her writings, she certainly does say that there's compelling evidence for these things, and she thinks it's compelling enough to dedicate her research career to a lot of these things.

B: That's key; whether she believes or not, she's devoting valuable time to these topics, and she's gotta think that there's—and she said that she believes a lot of these things have greater potential for breakthrough, and that's part of the problem is that we in science disagree. We disagree!

S: Right. And that's what we're talking about. Not talking about religious belief, we're talking about how much stock do you put in all of this, right? She also... typical tactic is to just defend curiosity, say. "I'm just being curious about these things; I'm just doing research—

E: And open-minded.

S: —and asking questions; I'm open-minded about these things." Right. And the implication is that we're not curious and we're not doing research and we're not, you know, open to these things. And that—

P: What's the old cliché? There's a difference between having and open mind and a hole in your head?

S: Well, there's a few. "Not so open that your brains fall out". I actually had to write an article about just this whole being open-minded thing, and the other skeptics have done a good job writing about that too, because it is such a common refrain among the true believers, to dismiss our skepticism as being "closed-minded". It's nonsense. You know, I am absolutely open, and we've said this before, too. Again, if they really checked out our beliefs, we've said—listen, I'll believe any of these things as long as the evidence is proportional to the claim that's being made. Our problem is not our world view; it's not that we're closed-minded, that we're defending a status quo or scientific mainstream; it's that the evidence stinks! That's our problem with this.

B: Right. We don't want to beat a dead horse. That horse has been long dead.

P: I mean, it's true. Why would I possibly care if there was some hairy guy walking around in the woods? If there's Bigfoot; who cares? It'd be interesting.

B: That'd be great to have a huge mammal like that—

P: I don't disbelieve it because—

S: That's not even necessarily paranormal; that's just...

B/P: Right.

S: Surviving species of hominid.

P: I disbelieve it because there's no evidence—No evidence that withstands even cursory scrutiny.

E: She also mentions that we don't... we're apparently closed to other cultures and...

S: Oh yeah. She pulled the "respect for multi-cultural world views" stuff, too.

B: Right, and Tsakiris did the same thing. Here's a quote I wrote down of his, where he says that... I think it was after he said... described Steve's discourse as unscientific, OK. But he says, "where's the science in dismissing someone else's work because their 'kooky beliefs'? Who's to judge, especially when we take beliefs that are common across cultures and are shared by the majority of people on the planet. As a scientist, I would think you'd be curious." And you know, maybe a hundred years ago; maybe sixty years ago, but you get to a point where you're like, "no, I'm not curious any more; there's nothing there; move on; show is over; nothing to see here".

S: Right, right. Yeah, they... you could play the curiosity card infinitely. It's really... very cynical, in a way. Also, same thing with, like, respect for other world views. And basically, they were committing the logical fallacy of the argument ad populi.

B: Ah.

S: It's popular; a lot of people believe in this thing, so we should take it seriously. And again, that's sloppy thinking, and that's why we criticize the people who argue this way. They both did that.

B: I don't think you should respect all other beliefs.

S: Yeah! Some are wrong.

E: That's exactly right.

B: Some... are kooky.

S: We respect logic and evidence, you know? Logic and evidence trumps what a lot of people believe, or whatever. Or the alternate views of other cultures.

B: (grunts)

S: I want to make one other comment, since we're kinda talking about attacks on skeptics this week; it's kind of a theme that will crop up a couple of times. This week, on my blog, Neurologica Blog, which you can get to from either the Skeptics' Guide home page or the NESS home page. I'm devoting my blog for the week on answering typical arguments against common skeptical beliefs or statements.

B: Oh yeah?!

(laughing)

E: That's a classic.

S: For example, use of Occam's Razor.

B: Yep, that was good.

S: The notion that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Etc.

P: Hear, hear.

S: Those topics that we typically use to defend skepticism and to criticize believe which lack evidence or logic are really being attacked by certain segments of the true believer and pro-paranormal society. I mean, there's actually a website that links to Skeptiko; has a lot of articles that are really just attacking these foundations of skepticism, attacking skeptics. A lot of people attack James Randi; if you're high-profile, you'll get targeted. So anyway, as part of this, I'm sort of... companion to this week's podcast, I'm writing fairly extensive blog entries about that, so take a look at it.

Modern Day Witch Trial (27:30)

• wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story_065160805.html

Questions and E-mails

Billy Meier Defender (30:31)

Dear Steven,

I noticed that you still have inaccurate info up re Meier. Perhaps you'd like to update your info and note what has happened to all the skeptical challenges in the last several years. These article cover some of it:

www.theyfly.com/newsflash5/tree.htm

www.tjresearch.info/O-S_photos.htm

And this should disabuse you of your thing-on-a-string theory:

From: UFO Contact from the Pleiades
A Preliminary Investigation Report
Copyrights 1982, 1982, 1980, 1979, 1978 Wendelle C. Stevens

'For analysis of the moving picture sequences of the Pleiadian spacecraft filmed in color in super 8mm format by Eduard Meier we turned to Mr. Jun-Ichi Yaoi of Tokyo, Japan, a world recognized expert in the film and television industry, now working as an officer in Nippon Television Corporation.

In the 18 March sequence Meier filmed the spacecraft circling a large tree in front of a farmhouse. The sky was overcast with a low ceiling, and occasionally light snowflakes fell. The motion of the spacecraft looks suspiciously like it is tethered from above as it appears to circle the tree and then to swing back and forth over the tree, except that on three occasions the spacecraft changes its motion abruptly with no change in the tilt of the vertical axis of the ship.

If it was in fact tethered, one would expect the vertical axis to tilt as the tether point above was moved. In another measurement it was found that the tilt angle of the vertical axis in one oscillation sequence was sufficient that the axis crossed within the frame and would have put the tether point within the picture. No tether point source was revealed, in one of the final oscillation sequences the object appeared to pass directly over the top of the tree, and it is clearly seen that the tree was swept over in the direction of the spacecraft, or appeared to follow the spacecraft as it passed. Clearly no model could have produced this effect. When we revisite

Name That Logical Fallacy (46:23)

• Logical Fallacies

I'm a big fan of the show, been listening to the archives in order and am up to around episode 45. I consider myself to be a pretty skeptical person, but perhaps I am too skeptical. Although I don't typically buy into grand conspiracies, I find myself sometimes skeptical of your criticisms thereof. It seems to me that although it is logically plausible that most if not all grand conspiracies would collapse under their own weight, it seems at least slightly fallacious to say that they can't be true simply because you can't imagine how they would be perpetuated and kept secret. This strikes me as nothing more than an argument from personal incredulity. I think that even the best skeptics must guard at all times against fallacious thinking, after all, none of us are infallible. Thanks for the podcast. Keep up the good work.

Symon Roberts
Washington State, USA

Science or Fiction (52:17)

Question #1: Scientists are exploring an area of the Atlantic sea floor thousands of kilometers in area where the earth-s crust appears to be missing. Question #2: Neuroscientists use fMRI scanning to show how toothbrushing can cause seizures. Question #3: Plant biologists have genetically engineered a variety of green bean plant that grows over 8 ft. tall and sporting beans over 1 foot long.

Skeptical Puzzle (1:00:45)

This Week's Puzzle

A pirate's victim, swimming in rye, bound with ropes, would make a perfect one of these.


Last Week's Puzzle

I am holding five objects in my hand
All five objects are the same size and shape
Each object has a number of things on them
These things are all exactly the same
The first object has zero things
The seconds has four
The third has six
The fourth has four
The fifth has ten

What am I holding?

Answer: Zener ESP cards
Winner: Iandbert

Quote of the Week (1:04:16)

The deepest sin against the human mind is to believe things without evidence.

Thomas H. Huxley

S: The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by the New England Skeptical Society in association with the James Randi Educational Foundation. For more information on this and other episodes, please visit our website at www.theskepticsguide.org. Please send us your questions, suggestions, and other feedback; you can use the "Contact Us" page on our website, or you can send us an email to info@theskepticsguide.org'. 'Theorem' is produced by Kineto and is used with permission.

References