SGU Episode 904

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SGU Episode 904
November 5th 2022
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SGU 903                      SGU 905
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
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[ https://sguforums.org/index.php?BOARD=1.0 Forum Discussion]

Introduction

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality. 00:12.840 Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

00:12.840 --> 00:17.880 Today is Thursday, November 3rd, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.

00:17.880 --> 00:19.440 Joining me this week are Bob Novella,

00:19.440 --> 00:20.440 Hey everybody.

00:20.440 --> 00:21.440 Kara Santamaria,

00:21.440 --> 00:22.440 Howdy.

00:22.440 --> 00:23.440 Jay Novella,

00:23.440 --> 00:24.440 Hey guys.

00:24.440 --> 00:25.440 And Evan Bernstein.

00:25.440 --> 00:26.440 Good evening, everyone.

00:26.440 --> 00:27.440 How is everyone?

00:27.440 --> 00:29.480 Bob, how was your Halloween?

00:29.480 --> 00:31.000 It was really good.

00:31.000 --> 00:32.000 It was really good.

00:32.000 --> 00:33.560 I decorated the new house.

00:33.560 --> 00:40.080 It was a challenge, and I just actually finished because the party is November 5th, and most

00:40.080 --> 00:42.360 of you are coming.

00:42.360 --> 00:45.240 Those of you who aren't are sadly too far away.

00:45.240 --> 00:46.240 Sorry.

00:46.240 --> 00:48.080 Did you get a lot of kids at your new place?

00:48.080 --> 00:49.080 What's the traffic like?

00:49.080 --> 00:50.080 Did not.

00:50.080 --> 00:51.080 Did not.

00:51.080 --> 00:52.080 Got 16 little punks.

00:52.080 --> 00:53.080 That's a lot.

00:53.080 --> 00:55.600 They were, yeah, they were adorable, but 16.

00:55.600 --> 00:56.600 But it was fun.

00:56.600 --> 00:58.640 Liz and I, we sat on our porch swing.

00:58.640 --> 01:00.080 We had hot cider.

01:00.080 --> 01:02.600 I carved a pumpkin, listened to creepy music.

01:02.600 --> 01:04.400 It was, it was, it was adorable, fun.

01:04.400 --> 01:10.120 And then after that at six thirty, we went, we went in and watched scary movies all night.

01:10.120 --> 01:13.120 Is that, is 16, I don't know.

01:13.120 --> 01:15.880 Living in big cities, I feel like nobody comes to doors anymore.

01:15.880 --> 01:17.600 So 16 sounds like a lot to me.

01:17.600 --> 01:18.600 No, no, no.

01:18.600 --> 01:19.600 It's nothing.

01:19.600 --> 01:24.000 I mean, a lot I would say is 70 is a lot.

01:24.000 --> 01:25.000 I remember when it was a hundred.

01:25.000 --> 01:29.280 Yeah, no, Evan and I used to go around my neighborhood because it was better for trick

01:29.280 --> 01:30.280 or treating than his neighborhood.

01:30.280 --> 01:33.160 So he would bring his daughter over, right, Evan?

01:33.160 --> 01:37.160 And there were like dozens and dozens of groups of kids roaming the neighborhood.

01:37.160 --> 01:39.960 Oh, there easily had to be a hundred kids in that neighborhood, Steve.

01:39.960 --> 01:42.960 Yeah, but this year we only got three groups of kids.

01:42.960 --> 01:47.400 I wonder if it's the pandemic or is just the neighborhood aging out?

01:47.400 --> 01:48.400 You know?

01:48.400 --> 01:49.400 I think it's the neighborhood aging out.

01:49.400 --> 01:52.280 You're just a whole bunch of old fuddy-duddies in that neighborhood.

01:52.280 --> 01:55.000 Yeah, but you kind of think that new families would rotate in.

01:55.000 --> 01:56.920 I mean, it's not like it's remained static.

01:56.920 --> 02:01.880 No, but still, you know, like my daughters are now away, you know, either at college

02:01.880 --> 02:06.800 or moved out and all of their friends that they were going to school with in the neighborhood

02:06.800 --> 02:08.440 are also moved away.

02:08.440 --> 02:12.400 So it hasn't been a complete turnover of everyone in the neighborhood.

02:12.400 --> 02:16.680 So but I do wonder how much of a pandemic effect there is, like are just people not

02:16.680 --> 02:17.680 doing this anymore.

02:17.680 --> 02:19.360 But you can easily wear a mask.

02:19.360 --> 02:24.600 Now Halloween is still hugely popular in terms of money spent and activities and stuff.

02:24.600 --> 02:26.480 It's still a huge, huge holiday.

02:26.480 --> 02:29.740 Like second only to Christmas in terms of money spent.

02:29.740 --> 02:30.740 It's big.

02:30.740 --> 02:31.740 Well, Valentine's Day.

02:31.740 --> 02:32.740 What about Valentine's Day?

02:32.740 --> 02:36.320 What about going to live performances of skeptical podcasts?

02:36.320 --> 02:37.920 Ooh, that sounds like fun.

02:37.920 --> 02:39.560 Steve, we got something coming up.

02:39.560 --> 02:41.240 I don't know if you're aware of this.

02:41.240 --> 02:45.600 I don't know if you've even considered the fact that in a short number of weeks, like

02:45.600 --> 02:46.600 what are we talking about?

02:46.600 --> 02:53.160 We're talking about like six weeks, five and a half weeks in about five and a half weeks.

02:53.160 --> 02:55.040 We are going to be in Arizona.

02:55.040 --> 02:56.120 Boots on the ground.

02:56.120 --> 02:57.120 Four shows lined up.

02:57.120 --> 02:58.200 Five and a half weeks.

02:58.200 --> 03:02.800 And I think we need to talk a little bit about what this means for the people that are in

03:02.800 --> 03:07.820 and around Arizona, because this is, you know, we're flying the whole crew out.

03:07.820 --> 03:08.820 This is a big deal.

03:08.820 --> 03:09.820 I mean, even George.

03:09.820 --> 03:10.820 You know what?

03:10.820 --> 03:11.820 We got to bring George on here.

03:11.820 --> 03:14.640 I want George to tell everyone about all the stuff that's going to happen.

03:14.640 --> 03:16.040 OK, let's bring him on.

03:16.040 --> 03:17.040 George Rob?

03:17.040 --> 03:18.040 I'm sorry.

03:18.040 --> 03:23.040 I'm still just unwrapping my candy from the weekend.

03:23.040 --> 03:24.040 Sorry.

03:24.040 --> 03:25.040 Oh, God.

03:25.040 --> 03:26.040 Delicious.

03:26.040 --> 03:27.040 Hi, George.

03:27.040 --> 03:28.040 Hi, George.

03:28.040 --> 03:29.040 Hey, everybody.

03:29.040 --> 03:30.040 What's going on?

Annoucements: Private Show (3:30)

03:30.040 --> 03:33.560 You know, you know, it's the season now, boys and girl.

03:33.560 --> 03:35.600 It's the it's we're past Halloween.

03:35.600 --> 03:37.140 We're getting into Thanksgiving now.

03:37.140 --> 03:38.560 And what happens after Thanksgiving?

03:38.560 --> 03:44.120 It's the holiday season full on, full on, 100 percent holiday season, whatever holiday

03:44.120 --> 03:45.120 you may be celebrating.

03:45.120 --> 03:49.320 And you know what's one of the most difficult things to do during the holiday season, especially

03:49.320 --> 03:52.840 if you've like been in a relationship for a long time or maybe you're like you're brand

03:52.840 --> 03:57.040 new to a relationship and you don't you don't you're not comfortable, you're not familiar

03:57.040 --> 03:58.640 or you've done everything a thousand times.

03:58.640 --> 03:59.840 You can't think of something new.

03:59.840 --> 04:05.140 The hardest thing to do at the holidays is to get a really good news.

04:05.140 --> 04:08.360 It's really hard to get a really good gift for someone.

04:08.360 --> 04:09.740 And wouldn't you know it?

04:09.740 --> 04:16.220 We here at SGU Productions have a really, really great gift that you can you can not

04:16.220 --> 04:19.200 only give to someone you love, you can give it to yourself.

04:19.200 --> 04:21.160 The way the world is nowadays.

04:21.160 --> 04:22.440 Give yourself a gift.

04:22.440 --> 04:23.440 You deserve it.

04:23.440 --> 04:25.240 What else is there to look forward to?

04:25.240 --> 04:30.680 We are so excited because we have this Arizona trip going on and you can get yourself or

04:30.680 --> 04:35.480 a loved one an incredibly special, unique kind of gift.

04:35.480 --> 04:36.480 Am I right, everybody?

04:36.480 --> 04:37.480 Guys?

04:37.480 --> 04:38.480 All right.

04:38.480 --> 04:39.480 Absolutely.

04:39.480 --> 04:40.480 It's going to be super fun.

04:40.480 --> 04:41.480 That's for sure.

04:41.480 --> 04:45.280 This is going to be above and beyond any kind of private event thing that we've ever done

04:45.280 --> 04:46.280 before.

04:46.280 --> 04:47.760 We've got the extravaganza's.

04:47.760 --> 04:48.760 Those are booked.

04:48.760 --> 04:51.760 Those are those are happening, which that that's a fantastic gift.

04:51.760 --> 04:53.120 You can get that for yourself.

04:53.120 --> 04:54.500 You can get that for your kids.

04:54.500 --> 04:56.120 You can get that for a loved one.

04:56.120 --> 05:00.640 Maybe maybe you want this gift and your loved one doesn't listen to the podcast.

05:00.640 --> 05:04.240 Well, you play them just like this little section right now and you just look at them

05:04.240 --> 05:05.240 to go.

05:05.240 --> 05:06.240 Well, that's interesting.

05:06.240 --> 05:07.240 Hello.

05:07.240 --> 05:08.240 Hello.

05:08.240 --> 05:09.240 That's interesting.

05:09.240 --> 05:10.240 That's interesting.

05:10.240 --> 05:11.240 Sweetheart is interesting.

05:11.240 --> 05:14.920 And we and we live close to Arizona.

05:14.920 --> 05:16.800 We even live in Arizona.

05:16.800 --> 05:21.760 We are going to have these two special private events that I am I am right now formulating

05:21.760 --> 05:27.160 a series of games that are going to not only put the rogues through their paces, but they're

05:27.160 --> 05:30.540 going to involve the audience in a very special and unique way.

05:30.540 --> 05:33.080 This is going to be something that we've never done before.

05:33.080 --> 05:34.080 It's going to be kind of common.

05:34.080 --> 05:38.160 I don't want to give away too, too much because part of the fun is unwrapping the gift, you

05:38.160 --> 05:39.160 know.

05:39.160 --> 05:47.800 But imagine imagine sort of combining scavenger hunts along with trivia, along with opportunities

05:47.800 --> 05:51.880 to see the rogues be absolutely embarrassed.

05:51.880 --> 05:52.880 What else do you want?

05:52.880 --> 05:53.880 Right.

05:53.880 --> 05:58.160 What else could you possibly want during the holiday season in the middle of December in

05:58.160 --> 06:03.080 the desert other than to see maybe Bob being really embarrassed because he couldn't figure

06:03.080 --> 06:06.660 out an answer to something and he has to pay a penalty by, I don't know, maybe dancing

06:06.660 --> 06:11.640 the Macarena or just something I'm just spitballing here.

06:11.640 --> 06:14.280 I am formulating a bunch of relief.

06:14.280 --> 06:15.960 It's oh, it's so going to happen.

06:15.960 --> 06:16.960 It's so going to happen.

06:16.960 --> 06:18.240 It's going to be fantastic.

06:18.240 --> 06:22.360 Look, in all seriousness, this is going to be if you are a fan of the program, if you've

06:22.360 --> 06:27.400 never got an opportunity to see the rogues live, there's going to not only be a chance

06:27.400 --> 06:30.600 to have one on one time with all of the rogues.

06:30.600 --> 06:34.960 There's going to be a live show that we're recording a private live podcast.

06:34.960 --> 06:39.500 You get to see how the sausage is made, and in this instance, you want to see how the

06:39.500 --> 06:43.800 sausage is made because invariably, there's always stuff that doesn't quite make the

06:43.800 --> 06:44.800 show.

06:44.800 --> 06:45.800 All the juicy stuff.

06:45.800 --> 06:49.520 Maybe you wonder to yourself, all the juicy stuff, what doesn't make the show?

06:49.520 --> 06:50.520 What arguments?

06:50.520 --> 06:51.520 What little f-bombs?

06:51.520 --> 06:55.560 What little particular kinds of things might not make the final show?

06:55.560 --> 07:01.320 Well, you're going to have an inside viewer's look at this and to see what goes into the

07:01.320 --> 07:02.320 process.

07:02.320 --> 07:08.120 Let me tell you, as someone that's been on the inside and heard it all, it is so worth

07:08.120 --> 07:09.560 the price of admission sometimes.

07:09.560 --> 07:10.560 Let me tell you.

07:10.560 --> 07:15.240 There's going to be a two-hour-ish private recording thing, which is really fun, and

07:15.240 --> 07:20.100 then as if that's not enough, there'll be another hour and a half of just games and

07:20.100 --> 07:24.920 trivia and music and singing and scavenge hunting and singing.

07:24.920 --> 07:28.200 Again, Bob, probably dancing at some point.

07:28.200 --> 07:29.720 Maybe with a shirt on, maybe with a shirt off.

07:29.720 --> 07:30.720 I don't know.

07:30.720 --> 07:35.920 I'll show you how it works out, but it'll be amazing and so I cannot stress enough how

07:35.920 --> 07:39.600 you need to go to this program, go to these shows, go to the extravaganzas and get the

07:39.600 --> 07:40.600 private shows.

07:40.600 --> 07:41.600 Here's the thing.

07:41.600 --> 07:43.440 Here's the really cool thing.

07:43.440 --> 07:47.000 The private shows are always different, just like the extravaganzas.

07:47.000 --> 07:50.160 You can go to two extravaganzas in a row, and you'll have a very different time each

07:50.160 --> 07:55.320 time because there's so much improv involved in each night of the extravaganza.

07:55.320 --> 08:00.180 Every time we do that show, the funniest bit is something that's completely unscripted

08:00.180 --> 08:02.080 that takes all of us by surprise.

08:02.080 --> 08:03.080 Yeah, vacuum cleaner.

08:03.080 --> 08:04.080 100%.

08:04.080 --> 08:05.080 Vacuum cleaner.

08:05.080 --> 08:07.840 That happens like two or three times a show, all the time.

08:07.840 --> 08:12.120 Yeah, so you do that, but with the private show, with the private super... What are

08:12.120 --> 08:13.120 we calling this again?

08:13.120 --> 08:16.880 The private show plus because we're just lame at thinking of viewing the games, but it's

08:16.880 --> 08:19.360 a four-hour event, so I'm clear.

08:19.360 --> 08:24.320 The total thing is four hours, and it's made to have... In the middle, there's a private

08:24.320 --> 08:29.160 recording of the SGA, but the rest of it is designed to optimize intimate contact between

08:29.160 --> 08:30.520 the audience and the rogues.

08:30.520 --> 08:32.320 Yeah, so you want a photo with everybody?

08:32.320 --> 08:33.320 Done.

08:33.320 --> 08:34.320 You want an autograph?

08:34.320 --> 08:35.320 Done.

08:35.320 --> 08:36.320 You want to ask a question?

08:36.320 --> 08:37.320 Done.

08:37.320 --> 08:41.000 This is all stuff that you get to do plus, again, Bob dancing.

08:41.000 --> 08:45.160 I can't get past this idea of just... I'll take it easy.

08:45.160 --> 08:46.160 George, there may be prizes too.

08:46.160 --> 08:47.160 I'll dance with Kara.

08:47.160 --> 08:48.160 You didn't mention the prizes.

08:48.160 --> 08:49.160 Well, there's... Oh, gosh.

08:49.160 --> 08:53.800 Yeah, so not only will the games be happening, but as you're involved with the rogues and

08:53.800 --> 08:57.820 you're maybe on their team, maybe you're cheering them on, there will be prizes which

08:57.820 --> 09:03.120 will be giving out very exclusive, very fantastic, only limited to this kind of event, prizes

09:03.120 --> 09:05.840 that, again, maybe you want the prize signed.

09:05.840 --> 09:06.840 We can make that happen.

09:06.840 --> 09:08.200 What do we got going on?

09:08.200 --> 09:14.400 Shirts and books and buttons and kazoos and t-shirt cannons and all kinds of stuff is

09:14.400 --> 09:15.400 going to be happening.

09:15.400 --> 09:16.400 Yeah, we're giving away t-shirt cannons.

09:16.400 --> 09:17.400 It's insane.

09:17.400 --> 09:18.400 We're giving away... Yes, we're giving away 400 t-shirt cannons.

09:18.400 --> 09:19.400 It's going to be amazing.

09:19.400 --> 09:23.520 We had to... We wanted to know, hey, if we're going to give away t-shirts, somebody brought

09:23.520 --> 09:25.520 the idea that we should shoot them with a cannon.

09:25.520 --> 09:26.520 I looked it up.

09:26.520 --> 09:27.520 Those things are expensive.

09:27.520 --> 09:28.520 They're crazy.

09:28.520 --> 09:29.520 We're not going to be bringing the t-shirt cannon.

09:29.520 --> 09:34.280 We're not bringing the t-shirt cannon, but yeah, but we'll gladly throw something at you.

09:35.280 --> 09:36.280 We'll throw something at you.

09:36.280 --> 09:41.720 We'll lovingly lob something at you, which may be a t-shirt, maybe some kind of a prize,

09:41.720 --> 09:47.680 but it's all part of this four-hour monster event, which is just... It's going to be something that you'll remember for a very, very long time, and if you've been listening to the show for years or maybe you're brand new to the show, it'll be the kind of experience

09:56.400 --> 10:00.540 that will... It's funny how sometimes when people come to these programs that have never

10:00.540 --> 10:06.640 seen all of you live, how they're sometimes surprised at how you look, how you interact,

10:06.640 --> 10:11.600 who's tall, who's short, who's this, who's that, who's aged well, who's not aged so well.

10:12.600 --> 10:13.600 People always think I'm taller.

10:13.600 --> 10:14.600 I'm always amazed.

10:14.600 --> 10:15.600 We thought you'd be taller.

10:15.600 --> 10:16.600 I'm like, no, this is it.

10:16.600 --> 10:17.600 This is what you get.

10:17.600 --> 10:18.600 This is it.

10:18.600 --> 10:22.260 I'm sorry, but that's the kind of thing you get to experience at these private shows.

10:22.260 --> 10:27.480 We can't stress enough how excited we all are, and we can't stress enough how excited

10:27.480 --> 10:33.280 you will all be after having this monstrous four-hour private show plus event.

10:33.280 --> 10:35.120 Look, tickets are limited.

10:35.120 --> 10:37.160 That's the thing that we've got to press as well.

10:37.160 --> 10:41.920 Tickets are limited because we want it to be a relatively intimate kind of thing.

10:41.920 --> 10:45.180 We can't have four, five, 600 people at these things.

10:45.180 --> 10:48.120 It's got to be a smaller number of people so that we can have one-on-one time with all

10:48.120 --> 10:54.400 of you in various permutations, and we can throw a shirt at each one of you if you answer

10:54.400 --> 10:56.760 questions correctly or win prizes.

10:56.760 --> 10:58.080 It's going to be wonderful.

10:58.080 --> 10:59.080 It's going to be fantastic.

10:59.080 --> 11:00.080 What's the dates again there, Jay?

11:00.080 --> 11:04.240 Just give us the official dates.

11:04.240 --> 11:09.280 December 15th is the Phoenix Private Show Plus, so that's the live podcast recording.

11:09.280 --> 11:10.280 That's a Thursday.

11:10.280 --> 11:12.520 That's everything that George is just saying.

11:12.520 --> 11:19.080 On Friday night, we will be doing the Tucson extravaganza, then Saturday afternoon, we

11:19.080 --> 11:24.120 will be doing the Tucson Private Show Plus, and Saturday night, we will be back in Phoenix

11:24.120 --> 11:25.680 doing the extravaganza.

11:25.680 --> 11:29.520 It's a ping-ponging back and forth across the desert kind of weekend for us, which we

11:29.520 --> 11:31.440 are so excited.

11:31.440 --> 11:37.000 You have four opportunities if you live anywhere near Phoenix or Arizona or both of those to

11:37.000 --> 11:45.080 come to all four, or do one, or do two, or let's say three, or maybe even four, and have

11:45.080 --> 11:49.640 the time, have the SG-U-est time you could possibly have.

11:49.640 --> 11:50.640 Be full of SG-U-ness.

11:50.640 --> 11:51.640 It's full of SG-U-ness.

11:51.640 --> 11:56.880 While we're talking about it, George, the extravaganzas are going to be holiday-themed,

11:56.880 --> 12:00.480 and I guarantee you this will never happen again.

12:00.480 --> 12:05.800 That's the other cool thing, yeah, that we're making these special holiday-themed extravaganzas.

12:05.800 --> 12:10.640 The extravaganzas are always a great fun time, lots of games, lots of opportunities to watch

12:10.640 --> 12:16.960 the rogues try to improvise their way out of challenges that I provide for them, but

12:16.960 --> 12:20.360 because it's the middle of December, we're going to have lovely holiday-themed, which

12:20.360 --> 12:24.420 again, it's just going to put you in the mood, and it's the perfect present.

12:24.420 --> 12:25.680 It's the perfect present.

12:25.680 --> 12:30.900 Two weeks before Christmas, or whatever, 10 days before Christmas, like, here it is, sweetheart.

12:30.900 --> 12:33.240 Let's have a holiday extravaganza, and then guess what?

12:33.240 --> 12:36.680 I'm going to surprise you with a private show, plus we get to hang out with the rogues

12:36.680 --> 12:41.440 for another four hours tomorrow, where we did it yesterday and it was amazing.

12:41.440 --> 12:42.440 What's the site there?

12:42.440 --> 12:43.440 Where do they get the tickets, Jay?

12:43.440 --> 12:44.440 Tell them.

12:44.440 --> 12:49.040 They can go to theskepticsguide.org forward slash events for all four of these events.

12:49.040 --> 12:50.040 Do it.

12:50.040 --> 12:51.040 Do it.

12:51.040 --> 12:52.040 It's going to be great.

12:52.040 --> 12:53.040 We can't wait to see all of it.

12:53.040 --> 12:54.040 Thank you, George.

12:54.040 --> 12:55.040 Thanks for joining us.

12:55.040 --> 12:56.040 Thanks, George.

12:56.040 --> 12:57.040 I'm going to go back to my candy.

12:57.040 --> 12:58.040 Wait a minute.

12:58.040 --> 12:59.040 Where's my wrap?

12:59.040 --> 13:00.040 Don't overdo it.

13:00.040 --> 13:01.040 Don't overdo it.

13:01.040 --> 13:02.040 Paste yourself, George.

13:02.040 --> 13:03.040 Paste yourself.

13:03.040 --> 13:06.040 Well, I got to fit in my Santa outfit.

13:06.040 --> 13:07.040 Bye, everybody.

13:07.040 --> 13:08.040 Thanks, George.

13:08.040 --> 13:09.040 Bye.

Update from Ajia Moon (13:09)

13:09.040 --> 13:14.200 Well, that was fun to talk with George, but you know what, guys?

13:14.200 --> 13:19.160 We actually have another guest joining us for this episode.

13:19.160 --> 13:21.040 You guys may remember Ajia.

13:21.040 --> 13:23.840 Asia, you've been on the show a couple of times before.

13:23.840 --> 13:25.080 Thanks for joining us again.

13:25.080 --> 13:26.200 Thanks for having me back.

13:26.200 --> 13:29.360 So remind our listeners what you do.

13:29.360 --> 13:34.800 I've kind of gone to the moon and back since I spoke to you guys last.

13:34.800 --> 13:42.720 So I used to own a medical marijuana dispensary, and Canada changed the Cannabis Act in 2018,

13:42.720 --> 13:47.880 so we closed to work with the new laws in Canada.

13:47.880 --> 13:54.840 I also had to close my original magazine due to the new laws with advertising, and I spent

13:54.840 --> 14:00.200 a couple of years just watching the grass grow and figuring out what I would do next.

14:00.200 --> 14:05.920 I got bored of watching the grass grow, so I opened the magazine, and I'm back out there

14:05.920 --> 14:07.160 and doing my stuff.

14:07.160 --> 14:11.700 We had a huge event on Sunset Beach in Vancouver.

14:11.700 --> 14:17.680 We had a special guest, Mercurys, and Snack the Ripper, and Golden BSP join us on the

14:17.680 --> 14:19.720 beach for a free party.

14:19.720 --> 14:25.520 We had 1,500 people show up, and we're about to do the same thing again, but for $420 in

14:25.520 --> 14:26.520 Vancouver.

14:26.520 --> 14:31.320 Our artist lineup is crazy, and everyone gets to come for free yet again, and my magazine

14:31.320 --> 14:32.320 will be ready.

14:32.320 --> 14:33.320 Awesome.

14:33.320 --> 14:34.320 Cool.

14:34.320 --> 14:38.520 Well, you're a patron of the SGU, and we're glad to have you on the show this week.

14:38.520 --> 14:42.640 We're going to go through our news items, starting with a Quickie with Bob.

14:42.640 --> 14:43.640 All right.

14:43.640 --> 14:44.640 Thank you, Steve.

This Day in Skepticism ()

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Forgotten Superheroes of Science ()

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"5 to 10 Years" ()

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What's the Word? ()

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Your Number's Up ()

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Quickie with Bob: Matter in Neutron Star Collisions (14:44)

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14:44.640 --> 14:45.640 This is your Quickie with Bob.

14:45.640 --> 14:51.680 Hey, Eric, gird your loins, neutron stars are the second densest thing we know in the

14:51.680 --> 14:58.720 universe, being essentially, as its name implies, solid neutrons, but we don't know what even

14:58.720 --> 15:04.440 more exotic matter would appear when neutron stars collide, even though we can now directly

15:04.440 --> 15:07.640 detect the gravitational waves from such an event.

15:07.640 --> 15:09.800 What's happening on the neutron stars?

15:09.800 --> 15:12.640 What kind of weird things are created?

15:12.640 --> 15:17.480 A new model has been published in Physical Review X, which recently describes the use

15:17.480 --> 15:23.200 of nuclear physics models that have been extended, because those models cannot handle such high

15:23.200 --> 15:28.600 density events, but they've been extended to include a string theory technique.

15:28.600 --> 15:35.200 So doctors Demersic and Jarvinen said regarding this, our method uses a mathematical relationship

15:35.200 --> 15:40.180 found in string theory, namely the correspondence between five-dimensional black holes and strongly

15:40.180 --> 15:46.880 interacting matter to describe the phase transition between dense nuclear and quark matter.

15:46.880 --> 15:47.880 Five-dimensional black holes.

15:47.880 --> 15:49.400 I can picture that.

15:49.400 --> 15:54.400 Using this new model in computer simulations shows that not only what the gravitational

15:54.400 --> 15:59.000 waves would be like that were produced, but also that both hot and cold quark matter can

15:59.000 --> 16:01.880 be created by neutron star collisions.

16:01.880 --> 16:06.920 So next, obviously, is to compare this, that the model results to the real gravitational

16:06.920 --> 16:11.240 waves in the near future of colliding neutron stars, and I'm looking forward to it.

16:11.240 --> 16:14.640 This has been your Quickie with Bob, un-gird your loins, people, and I hope it was good

16:14.640 --> 16:15.640 for you, too.

16:15.640 --> 16:16.640 Thanks, Bob.

16:16.640 --> 16:17.640 That was quick.

16:17.640 --> 16:18.640 That went by very quickly.

16:18.640 --> 16:19.640 Yeah, yeah.

16:19.640 --> 16:20.640 It's called the Quickie.

16:20.640 --> 16:21.640 Very nice.

16:21.640 --> 16:22.640 Neutron stars are endlessly fascinating.

16:22.640 --> 16:23.640 They are.

16:23.640 --> 16:26.240 I'd rather see one up close than a black hole, actually.

16:26.240 --> 16:27.240 Yeah.

16:27.240 --> 16:28.240 Although not too close.

16:28.240 --> 16:29.240 Well, right.

16:29.240 --> 16:30.240 Closest.

16:30.240 --> 16:31.240 Yeah.

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Daylight Saving Time (16:31)

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16:31.240 --> 16:32.240 All right.

16:32.240 --> 16:36.120 So, guys, this weekend is the end of daylight saving time.

16:36.120 --> 16:37.120 Oh, boy.

16:37.120 --> 16:38.120 Yeah, that's right.

16:38.120 --> 16:41.400 Asia, do you guys have daylight saving time in Canada?

16:41.400 --> 16:44.120 We do, but it's different depending on where you are.

16:44.120 --> 16:45.120 Oh, yeah?

16:45.120 --> 16:46.120 That's crazy.

16:46.120 --> 16:49.960 Meaning not all the territories or states observe it, or?

16:49.960 --> 16:50.960 Or the time when you do it is different.

16:50.960 --> 16:51.960 We do switch at different times.

16:51.960 --> 16:52.960 Ah.

16:52.960 --> 16:53.960 Yeah.

16:53.960 --> 16:54.960 You switch at different times.

16:54.960 --> 16:57.960 That has to be not confusing at all.

16:57.960 --> 16:58.960 Right.

16:58.960 --> 17:02.520 We've been trying to get rid of daylight saving time for a couple of reasons.

17:02.520 --> 17:06.800 The big one is that nobody knows how to pronounce it, and they say daylight savings time.

17:06.800 --> 17:14.280 But, Evan, tell us what's the update on the efforts to get rid of it.

17:14.280 --> 17:15.280 Yeah.

17:15.280 --> 17:17.680 So the efforts to get rid of it has made the news, of course, this week.

17:17.680 --> 17:23.480 There's lots of stories out there right now as it approaches this coming Sunday.

17:23.480 --> 17:28.400 You know it's called summer time in the United Kingdom and much of Europe, so if you ever

17:28.400 --> 17:34.480 have someone's summer time, and for those of you who don't know, this is when you advance

17:34.480 --> 17:40.800 your clocks during the warmer months so that darkness falls at a later clock time.

17:40.800 --> 17:46.480 And usually it's one hour difference in most cases around the planet, and in the spring

17:46.480 --> 17:51.000 you spring forward, and in autumn or the fall you fall back.

17:51.000 --> 17:54.940 That's how you're supposed to remember exactly how it works.

17:54.940 --> 18:00.060 So as a result, you have one of your days in the spring, it's a 23 hour day, and then

18:00.060 --> 18:05.360 you get one coming up this coming Sunday, it's going to be a 25 hour day.

18:05.360 --> 18:09.400 And here in the United States it's been in place for quite a while now.

18:09.400 --> 18:14.360 It's pretty much since the 1960s we've been using it regularly.

18:14.360 --> 18:21.100 There have been a few times in which they've used it in the 70s for full for the entire

18:21.100 --> 18:22.100 year.

18:22.100 --> 18:26.640 It had to do with daylight savings, it had to do with energy consumption in the 70s when

18:26.640 --> 18:30.840 there was energy issues going on with oil.

18:30.840 --> 18:35.800 Since then pretty much it's been spring forward and fall back.

18:35.800 --> 18:36.900 Every year we do this.

18:36.900 --> 18:38.440 Now a couple updates on this.

18:38.440 --> 18:44.440 Number one, as Steve as you alluded to, where are we now in getting this thing fixed?

18:44.440 --> 18:48.000 And by fixed I mean rid of it.

18:48.000 --> 18:54.160 So we've got the U.S. Senate, which back in March of this year they passed legislation

18:54.160 --> 18:59.960 that would make daylight saving time permanent starting with 2023.

18:59.960 --> 19:05.320 So essentially once we move into daylight saving time that starts in March of 2023 we'd

19:05.320 --> 19:07.000 never come off of it at that point.

19:07.000 --> 19:08.000 That would be it.

19:08.000 --> 19:09.000 We'd be locked into that.

19:09.000 --> 19:10.560 It'd be permanent summertime.

19:10.560 --> 19:11.560 Yep.

19:11.560 --> 19:16.280 So the Senate has passed that and they passed it unanimously by the way, which is you know

19:16.280 --> 19:19.040 that's- That never happens.

19:19.040 --> 19:20.320 That almost never happens.

19:20.320 --> 19:21.640 It was by acclimation, right?

19:21.640 --> 19:24.240 I mean it's not like it was a formal vote.

19:24.240 --> 19:29.600 No it wasn't really a formal vote it was a voice vote but it does, it counts.

19:29.600 --> 19:31.000 So that's part of it.

19:31.000 --> 19:37.880 But in our system of government in order to get this law passed it has to pass both houses

19:37.880 --> 19:44.440 or both branches of the legislative branch, both chambers and the other is the House of

19:44.440 --> 19:45.440 Representatives.

19:45.440 --> 19:50.080 So over in the House of Representatives it's being held.

19:50.080 --> 19:55.560 Held at desk is the term and it's being held by a subcommittee, the Subcommittee on Consumer

19:55.560 --> 20:01.320 Protection and Commerce, which is a subcommittee under the Energy and Commerce Committee, House

20:01.320 --> 20:03.140 Resolution 69.

20:03.140 --> 20:08.780 Now they're saying that the reason that it's held up there is that they're not sure how

20:08.780 --> 20:11.560 to move forward with it, trying to figure it out.

20:11.560 --> 20:17.160 They agree it's a good idea to settle on something and make it permanent in some way.

20:17.160 --> 20:20.600 But they haven't found a consensus yet on the best way to do it.

20:20.600 --> 20:25.400 Do you lock into the daylight saving mode in which you get the extra hour of light in

20:25.400 --> 20:30.160 the evenings or are you going to go to standard time, are you going to lock in there, in which

20:30.160 --> 20:33.080 that extra hour of daylight will occur during the morning hours?

20:33.080 --> 20:38.440 See they are saying that we haven't been able- This is Frank Pallone who's the U.S. Representative

20:38.440 --> 20:41.500 and Chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee.

20:41.500 --> 20:44.040 We haven't been able to find consensus in the House on this yet.

20:44.040 --> 20:47.760 There are a broad variety of opinions about whether to keep the status quo or to move

20:47.760 --> 20:50.760 to a permanent time and if so, what time that should be.

20:50.760 --> 20:54.580 We don't want to make a hasty change and then have it reversed several years later after

20:54.580 --> 20:59.400 public opinion turns against it, which is what happened when they tried it out in the

20:59.400 --> 21:00.400 70s.

21:00.400 --> 21:02.660 So he says those are the concerns there.

21:02.660 --> 21:07.360 So I don't know that we're really going to see anything solid on this, at least certainly

21:07.360 --> 21:12.760 not in time, I don't think in time for the 2023 year and I have no idea what that does

21:12.760 --> 21:15.880 to the Senate bill, if that means that has to go back and they have to revote on that,

21:15.880 --> 21:17.440 who the heck knows.

21:17.440 --> 21:24.720 But we've talked about this before on the show and we have some differing opinions kind

21:24.720 --> 21:28.220 of on this, at least we've expressed it in the past.

21:28.220 --> 21:31.280 By the way, here's Bob, this is for you.

21:31.280 --> 21:34.560 At two o'clock in the morning this coming Sunday, we're going to go back to one o'clock,

21:34.560 --> 21:35.560 right?

21:35.560 --> 21:36.560 That's how it works.

21:36.560 --> 21:38.480 On that Sunday, it goes back to one.

21:38.480 --> 21:43.020 That means we're going to have a pair of 1 a.m.s. at the same day, right?

21:43.020 --> 21:52.520 And that's 60 duplicate minutes, that's 3600 more seconds and five quadrillion, 600 trillion

21:52.520 --> 21:53.520 additional picoseconds.

21:53.520 --> 21:54.520 Ooh, nice.

21:54.520 --> 21:55.520 So Bob, that's for you.

21:55.520 --> 21:56.520 Well done, well done.

21:56.520 --> 21:57.520 Thank you.

21:57.520 --> 21:58.520 Thank you very much.

21:58.520 --> 22:02.320 And you know that, hey, those are precious picoseconds of life, if you ask me.

22:02.320 --> 22:03.320 Precious.

22:03.320 --> 22:07.980 If you think about it that way, during a person's life, if they happen to die during daylight

22:07.980 --> 22:11.920 saving, they're going to lose five quadrillion, 600 trillion picoseconds.

22:11.920 --> 22:15.000 So I don't think that's necessarily a trivial thing.

22:15.000 --> 22:18.420 Now there's some more news about daylight saving.

22:18.420 --> 22:22.000 There are some new studies that are out and they have to do, well, one has to do with

22:22.000 --> 22:25.280 sleep and the other has to do with accidents.

22:25.280 --> 22:26.840 Sleep interference is bad.

22:26.840 --> 22:32.920 Well, we all agree on that and I think there are many, many studies that have revealed

22:32.920 --> 22:37.200 this, and more studies have confirmed this.

22:37.200 --> 22:41.880 And you know, certainly children need lots of sleep and they are perhaps the worst at

22:41.880 --> 22:46.040 adapting to sudden changes in those kinds of routines, especially when it comes to sleep.

22:46.040 --> 22:51.500 Again, there have been studies published, more recently a 2019 study published in the

22:51.500 --> 22:52.640 Journal of Sleep.

22:52.640 --> 22:58.320 They found that changes in the clock usually result in a loss of sleep for kids and they

22:58.320 --> 23:02.800 have longer and greater disruptions happening among infants and young kids.

23:02.800 --> 23:06.020 So the younger you are, apparently the worse it is for you.

23:06.020 --> 23:08.400 It can affect children's sleep badly.

23:08.400 --> 23:13.640 In some cases, seven to 28 days they could take to adjust to that time change, a one

23:13.640 --> 23:19.860 hour time for a child could take up to almost a month for them to be able to adjust.

23:19.860 --> 23:21.860 So that's not trivial.

23:21.860 --> 23:26.680 And they say to help offset that, what you should do is in the days leading up to the

23:26.680 --> 23:31.680 change, you change everybody's bedtime accordingly to make that adjustment.

23:31.680 --> 23:32.960 And you do it by 30 minutes.

23:32.960 --> 23:34.360 You don't do it by the full hour.

23:34.360 --> 23:35.820 So it doesn't seem so severe.

23:35.820 --> 23:38.520 It's more of a gradual ease into it.

23:38.520 --> 23:42.840 But then there's this other study that came out just not too long ago.

23:42.840 --> 23:44.880 This was late August or early September.

23:44.880 --> 23:50.040 In PLOS One, this was reported, sleep loss leads to the withdrawal of human helping across

23:50.040 --> 23:54.680 individuals, across groups, and large scale societies.

23:54.680 --> 24:00.460 And they specifically reference daylight saving time as one of those reasons, especially at

24:00.460 --> 24:02.540 the large scale level.

24:02.540 --> 24:07.280 And of these studies, they said, we demonstrate that one hour of lost sleep opportunity inflicted

24:07.280 --> 24:12.640 by the transition to daylight saving time reduces real world altruistic helping through

24:12.640 --> 24:15.360 the act of donation giving.

24:15.360 --> 24:20.480 And they established it through the analysis of over three million charitable donations.

24:20.480 --> 24:25.760 The other studies that they did with this, it triggers the withdrawal of help from one

24:25.760 --> 24:27.520 individual to another.

24:27.520 --> 24:31.880 And the FMRI findings revealed that the withdrawal of human helping is associated with deactivation

24:31.880 --> 24:38.440 of key nodes within the social cognition brain network that facilitates willingness to help

24:38.440 --> 24:40.040 others.

24:40.040 --> 24:45.080 And they said it also at another study at a group level, the night to night reductions

24:45.080 --> 24:49.160 in sleep across several nights predict corresponding next day reductions in the choice to help

24:49.160 --> 24:52.120 others during day to day interactions.

24:52.120 --> 24:57.480 So yeah, they're saying that here we go, daylight saving time again.

24:57.480 --> 24:59.160 Ben Simon was the lead author on this.

24:59.160 --> 25:02.880 He says, this is actually the first study to show that there is an impact on people's

25:02.880 --> 25:07.240 generosity and pro social behavior following daylight saving time.

25:07.240 --> 25:11.400 It's just more evidence of the importance of sleep on people's behavior.

25:11.400 --> 25:14.760 Brain areas that are typically active when we think about what other people might want

25:14.760 --> 25:20.800 or need were significantly less active following a night of lost sleep directly tied in one

25:20.800 --> 25:22.080 of these studies to daylight saving.

25:22.080 --> 25:23.080 Yeah.

25:23.080 --> 25:24.720 So basically we're grumpy when we don't get enough sleep.

25:24.720 --> 25:25.720 Yeah.

25:25.720 --> 25:32.040 And less willing to help others, it puts us into a different state.

25:32.040 --> 25:33.040 Yeah, definitely.

25:33.040 --> 25:34.040 This is so complicated.

25:34.040 --> 25:36.680 So I don't think there's no consensus on this.

25:36.680 --> 25:41.200 About a third of people want to keep it the way it is, a third want permanent DSA and

25:41.200 --> 25:46.080 a third want permanent standard time, you know, it's a little bit more for the standard

25:46.080 --> 25:50.800 time, but it shifts from year to year, the survey, but it's basically a third, a third

25:50.800 --> 25:51.800 and a third.

25:51.800 --> 25:54.720 So that's why no matter what you do, someone's going to complain.

25:54.720 --> 25:58.040 You know, if we make a change, people are going to complain, just kind of ignore them.

25:58.040 --> 26:01.160 Just have to decide what the one's best and just go with it and let people complain until

26:01.160 --> 26:02.720 we all stop complaining about it.

26:02.720 --> 26:05.960 I think there's no question that changing is bad, right?

26:05.960 --> 26:11.920 Going back and forth between the two has its own problems, increased accidents, loss of

26:11.920 --> 26:13.080 sleep, et cetera.

26:13.080 --> 26:17.740 But the data on what's better, permanent daylight saving time or permanent standard time is

26:17.740 --> 26:21.600 mixed and it's just like, it's a pick your poison kind of thing.

26:21.600 --> 26:27.880 The sleep specialists all say that that standard time is better, that daylight because it matches

26:27.880 --> 26:31.920 the circadian rhythm to the light, you know, the sun cycle better.

26:31.920 --> 26:35.440 Depending on where you live, that doesn't necessarily apply.

26:35.440 --> 26:38.680 Of course, this depends, this is hugely, hugely regionally.

26:38.680 --> 26:44.520 And yeah, because I lived up in the Yukon for about six months and it goes from like

26:44.520 --> 26:51.760 12 to 12 to 10 to 14, all of a sudden you're in 22 hour days during the summer and then

26:51.760 --> 26:55.920 it just right into winter and it's really, yeah, I don't think, I don't think adjusting

26:55.920 --> 26:59.700 by an hour is going to do a whole lot for you in that situation.

26:59.700 --> 27:03.520 And that's, that's really the question though, right, Steve, like obviously the permanent,

27:03.520 --> 27:08.640 the permanentness, it might have some difference if it's an hour forward, an hour back, but

27:08.640 --> 27:10.440 isn't the main problem, the changing?

27:10.440 --> 27:11.440 Yeah.

27:11.440 --> 27:13.960 Well, as I said, the changing is definitely a problem.

27:13.960 --> 27:14.960 There's no question about that.

27:14.960 --> 27:15.960 Yeah.

27:15.960 --> 27:20.240 But if you get to which, which one should be permanent, it's a mixed bag.

27:20.240 --> 27:25.000 You know, it sounds like for the sleep scientist say you're better, you know, from a medical

27:25.000 --> 27:29.760 point of view, you're better off having standard time, but that assumes of course that we don't

27:29.760 --> 27:32.120 adjust our like school starting time.

27:32.120 --> 27:37.120 See, I think we should go to permanent DST and make school start an hour later.

27:37.120 --> 27:40.920 A lot of people already have flex time in terms of when they start their day, but you

27:40.920 --> 27:44.360 know, for work, but we could make that more standard.

27:44.360 --> 27:45.360 There's some interesting things.

27:45.360 --> 27:46.360 I just did a deep dive on this.

27:46.360 --> 27:47.500 Why I have all this loaded up.

27:47.500 --> 27:52.960 So one thing is, um, economically it's all better DST has advantages cause there's basically

27:52.960 --> 27:55.840 more economic activity happening in the early evening.

27:55.840 --> 27:59.000 Then that's why it's been extended like it used to be six months out of the year.

27:59.000 --> 28:03.360 Now in the U S now it's eight months out of the year because of the candy lobby for Halloween

28:03.360 --> 28:09.680 and the golf course lobby and you know, barbecue supplies, like all these things and those

28:09.680 --> 28:14.320 activities are increases with DST.

28:14.320 --> 28:21.280 The other thing is DST matches better with solar power and energy use.

28:21.280 --> 28:26.320 So if we, if we want to maximize solar power, DST is better.

28:26.320 --> 28:32.800 I just saw a study today that DST matches better with deer, um, which you might not

28:32.800 --> 28:34.200 think, Oh, who cares what the deer want.

28:34.200 --> 28:35.200 Right.

28:35.200 --> 28:42.680 But the studies showed that by going to permanent DST would reduce 36,550 deer deaths, 33 human

28:42.680 --> 28:50.360 deaths, 2054 human injuries, and $1.19 billion in costs from hitting deer on the roadways.

28:50.360 --> 28:56.280 Do you have something like the second most lethal animal in America or something like

28:56.280 --> 28:57.280 that?

28:57.280 --> 28:58.280 I don't know.

28:58.280 --> 28:59.280 I don't know about that statistically.

28:59.280 --> 29:00.280 I've hit three.

29:00.280 --> 29:01.280 I've hit one.

29:01.280 --> 29:02.280 Oh my gosh.

29:02.280 --> 29:03.280 No, I've never.

29:03.280 --> 29:04.280 I've yet to hit one.

29:04.280 --> 29:05.280 Thank goodness.

29:05.280 --> 29:08.920 It's incredible that we have that much data about what goes on in the world.

29:08.920 --> 29:12.920 You know, every one of these gets reported as a, as a, to insurance companies, right?

29:12.920 --> 29:15.200 That's probably why we have so much data on it.

29:15.200 --> 29:19.360 And the original reason, the original, we, this was a world war one time idea.

29:19.360 --> 29:23.000 Let's let's go to DS DST in order to save energy.

29:23.000 --> 29:28.640 It saves about 1% for lighting, but if you include a heating, it flips the other way.

29:28.640 --> 29:33.200 So it's, it's more of a mixed bag again, if you include total energy, not just energy

29:33.200 --> 29:34.660 for lighting.

29:34.660 --> 29:37.300 So you know, it's basically a mixed bag.

29:37.300 --> 29:42.320 We just should pick one so that we don't have to change, adjust to it if we need to and

29:42.320 --> 29:43.320 go on with our lives.

29:43.320 --> 29:44.320 Yeah.

29:44.320 --> 29:46.360 Universally, the change is what's the worst part of all.

29:46.360 --> 29:47.360 Yeah, exactly.

29:47.360 --> 29:48.360 You have to make the change.

29:48.360 --> 29:49.360 Okay.

29:49.360 --> 29:50.360 All right.

29:50.360 --> 29:51.360 Let's go on.

Humans Working With Robots (29:51)

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29:51.360 --> 29:54.800 Jay, are we getting close to having humans and robots working together?

29:54.800 --> 29:56.640 Steve, it's already happening.

29:56.640 --> 29:57.640 Is it?

29:57.640 --> 29:58.640 Oh yeah.

29:58.640 --> 30:03.080 There's, there's, there's lots of companies out there that have some type of automation

30:03.080 --> 30:05.220 robot doing some work.

30:05.220 --> 30:09.880 You know, what's happening is more and more industries are starting to utilize robots

30:09.880 --> 30:12.800 to do a huge variety of jobs.

30:12.800 --> 30:16.920 And you know, we have humans and robots, they they're working together.

30:16.920 --> 30:22.280 And if they work together correctly and if things are optimized, this can, can have a

30:22.280 --> 30:25.280 significant improvement on manufacturing processes.

30:25.280 --> 30:28.920 It could save time, it could save labor, it could save, you know, costs, everything.

30:28.920 --> 30:30.320 It's just a really good thing.

30:30.320 --> 30:35.520 And this of course means that more people are finding that they have to work alongside

30:35.520 --> 30:36.520 some type of robot.

30:36.520 --> 30:39.000 You know, it's, it's just starting to happen.

30:39.000 --> 30:44.180 Companies need to make sure that their workers can effectively work alongside robots of course.

30:44.180 --> 30:48.560 And ideally companies can help make the experience of working with robots positive for their

30:48.560 --> 30:49.560 workers.

30:49.560 --> 30:53.040 They don't want it to be like, you know, have this horrible negative experience that happens

30:53.040 --> 30:54.200 every day while they're at work.

30:54.200 --> 30:56.060 They want it to be as seamless as possible.

30:56.060 --> 30:57.060 They want it to be safe.

30:57.060 --> 31:01.640 There's lots of factors that they, you know, apply here, but a key factor is that humans

31:01.640 --> 31:05.840 need to develop trust for their robot coworkers.

31:05.840 --> 31:09.080 And if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.

31:09.080 --> 31:14.920 You know, a human has to be able to accept what the machine is doing and be able to work

31:14.920 --> 31:15.920 alongside it.

31:15.920 --> 31:19.600 And a big factor in there is the idea that they have to have, simply have to have trust

31:19.600 --> 31:21.400 for the work that it's doing.

31:21.400 --> 31:27.320 And if companies can establish trust in robotic workers, the quality and safety can easily

31:27.320 --> 31:28.320 improve.

31:28.320 --> 31:32.200 So trust is actually critical for a shared human and robot workspace to actually function

31:32.200 --> 31:37.500 and, you know, in the first place, like there is already this issue of whether or not some

31:37.500 --> 31:41.680 companies that, you know, employees of companies have trust in the robotics that are happening

31:41.680 --> 31:42.680 there.

31:42.680 --> 31:48.060 So I think we should distinguish between robots that have been working in factories for decades

31:48.060 --> 31:54.000 now would be like, say, like car manufacturers where they've got a zone that you humans aren't

31:54.000 --> 31:55.000 allowed.

31:55.000 --> 31:56.000 We're not talking about that, right?

31:56.000 --> 32:00.000 We're talking about close proximity with no swinging arms that's going to take your head

32:00.000 --> 32:01.000 off.

32:01.000 --> 32:02.000 Yeah.

32:02.000 --> 32:03.000 I'll get into that, Bob.

32:03.000 --> 32:05.080 I'll get more into details about what kind of robot we're talking about.

32:05.080 --> 32:11.360 But in this study that I'm about to tell you about, there's a robot called the UR-10 collaborative

32:11.360 --> 32:12.360 robot.

32:12.360 --> 32:18.640 And it's essentially a robot arm that has five points of articulation that, you know,

32:18.640 --> 32:20.700 isn't that much bigger than a human arm.

32:20.700 --> 32:24.420 But it could just spin and do different, you know, it can move in many different ways.

32:24.420 --> 32:30.520 So in Human Factors, the Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, researchers

32:30.520 --> 32:35.820 at the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Texas A&M University are trying

32:35.820 --> 32:41.520 to figure out how human behavior is affected by robots and having them present in the workspace.

32:41.520 --> 32:46.760 So for example, when humans get fatigued, and this is counterintuitive to me, at least

32:46.760 --> 32:52.000 when humans get fatigued and or stressed out at work, they become more trusting of the

32:52.000 --> 32:54.240 robots they work alongside.

32:54.240 --> 32:56.200 And just think about that for a second.

32:56.200 --> 32:57.200 That's pretty interesting.

32:57.200 --> 32:58.200 Right.

32:58.200 --> 33:02.440 You know, when they get tired, well, we'll begin to trust the robots that are that are

33:02.440 --> 33:07.800 working alongside them more, you'd think maybe the opposite of that, but that's not the case.

33:07.800 --> 33:08.920 And look, I'm too tired.

33:08.920 --> 33:09.920 You do it.

33:09.920 --> 33:11.640 Yeah, maybe that's it.

33:11.640 --> 33:13.200 That's a simple explanation.

33:13.200 --> 33:19.720 So using functional near infrared spectroscopy on 16 test subjects, researchers looked at

33:19.720 --> 33:22.160 their brain activity during the test.

33:22.160 --> 33:28.080 And particularly they looked at brain activation, connectivity, subjective responses and performance

33:28.080 --> 33:30.120 were measured throughout this study.

33:30.120 --> 33:35.040 They were they were studying the brains of the test subjects to see what kind of responses

33:35.040 --> 33:40.480 that they were having to having the robotic worker work near them next to them with them.

33:40.480 --> 33:43.840 And most importantly, they did something really interesting.

33:43.840 --> 33:47.880 So they wanted to know how the test subjects, you know, how their trusting behaviors were

33:47.880 --> 33:51.800 affected as they interacted and worked with the UR-10 collaborative robot.

33:51.800 --> 33:55.240 Now, and like I said, this robot has five points of articulation, it could do a lot

33:55.240 --> 33:59.080 of really, really good, very precise types of movements.

33:59.080 --> 34:03.640 So what they did was they varied the robot's reliability and the robot's level of assistance

34:03.640 --> 34:04.640 during the test.

34:04.640 --> 34:10.080 Now, when I say the robot's reliability, the robots would make mistakes deliberately, right?

34:10.080 --> 34:14.880 The people, the researchers were deliberately having the robot's reliability go down and

34:14.880 --> 34:19.960 then they tested the test subjects to see what was going on in their brain.

34:19.960 --> 34:20.960 And check this out.

34:20.960 --> 34:26.440 Here's a quote from the study, significantly increased neural activation was observed in

34:26.440 --> 34:33.280 response to faulty robot behavior within the medial and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex

34:33.280 --> 34:34.640 PFC.

34:34.640 --> 34:39.880 A similar trend was observed for the anterior PFC, primary motor cortex and primary visual

34:39.880 --> 34:41.040 cortex.

34:41.040 --> 34:45.680 Faulty robot behavior also resulted in reduced functional connectivity strengths throughout

34:45.680 --> 34:46.680 the brain.

34:46.680 --> 34:48.440 Steve, what did I just read?

34:48.440 --> 34:52.080 First of all, you know, this is an fMRI study, I'm assuming, right?

34:52.080 --> 34:58.240 I mean, you always got to take those with a grain of salt because there's a high noise,

34:58.240 --> 35:00.720 you know, factor in them.

35:00.720 --> 35:01.720 You know what I mean?

35:01.720 --> 35:03.760 It's like an average of an average.

35:03.760 --> 35:05.680 And they're also usually super low ends.

35:05.680 --> 35:06.680 Yeah.

35:06.680 --> 35:08.960 You're just looking at like a random, like a very, very small sampling.

35:08.960 --> 35:14.320 But if we assume that that's correct, they're just saying, oh yeah, these frontal lobe parts

35:14.320 --> 35:19.560 of the brain are, they're more active when the robot makes mistakes.

35:19.560 --> 35:21.840 Is that what, is that the bottom line?

35:21.840 --> 35:22.840 Yeah.

35:22.840 --> 35:27.920 So the researchers found that when the robot made an error, that the test subjects trust

35:27.920 --> 35:28.920 in the robot lowered.

35:28.920 --> 35:33.680 So when the test subject was in a lower state of trust for the robot coworker, parts of

35:33.680 --> 35:35.240 their brain began to work harder.

35:35.240 --> 35:36.880 And this is the part that I find fascinating.

35:36.880 --> 35:37.880 That makes sense, right?

35:37.880 --> 35:39.920 You know, like, okay, they have to pay attention more.

35:39.920 --> 35:43.080 Now they have to monitor what the robot's doing there.

35:43.080 --> 35:46.880 Part of trust, this does also, I think it's back to like when they're tired, they trust

35:46.880 --> 35:47.880 more.

35:47.880 --> 35:51.520 Lack of trust is a high mental energy state, right?

35:51.520 --> 35:55.720 And trust is like permission to like go to a lower mental energy state.

35:55.720 --> 35:57.120 I trust you're going to do this.

35:57.120 --> 35:58.660 I can relax.

35:58.660 --> 35:59.660 You don't trust somebody.

35:59.660 --> 36:00.660 You can't relax.

36:00.660 --> 36:02.120 You've got to be, you know, looking over their shoulder.

36:02.120 --> 36:05.220 So that makes basic sense, I guess.

36:05.220 --> 36:09.240 So as they like, let me give you a, for instance, they, they lower the accuracy of what the

36:09.240 --> 36:11.180 robot arm is doing.

36:11.180 --> 36:17.080 And what they found was this translated into more brain activity, which increased the test

36:17.080 --> 36:20.920 subjects workload because they began to compensate for the faulty robot.

36:20.920 --> 36:25.020 So again, you know, on the opposite side of this, when the robots performed well, these

36:25.020 --> 36:26.800 brain regions worked well together.

36:26.800 --> 36:32.800 So, you know, what we're seeing is that the test subjects were showing a fatigue.

36:32.800 --> 36:36.700 They were more fatigued and they were working at a higher level of stress when the robot

36:36.700 --> 36:38.520 wasn't working as efficiently.

36:38.520 --> 36:44.120 So it does have an emotional impact on human workers when and if the robots weren't working

36:44.120 --> 36:45.900 in an optimal way.

36:45.900 --> 36:50.480 So that might seem obvious, but it is something that they were able to prove.

36:50.480 --> 36:54.300 And because they're studying the brain and studying which parts of the brain are lighting

36:54.300 --> 37:00.400 up during these very specific moments, it gives them, it teaches them where to look

37:00.400 --> 37:04.260 in the future for more clues about a human response.

37:04.260 --> 37:08.240 And if you, if you think about it, you know, because so many people are going to be working

37:08.240 --> 37:13.280 with robots and interacting with robots and at some point even talking to robots, you

37:13.280 --> 37:18.760 know, this is a very early study, but we need to study human robot interaction in general.

37:18.760 --> 37:24.080 If you think about it, we need to optimize the way robots handle working with human beings

37:24.080 --> 37:28.120 in the way that we respond to the, to them working in our space.

37:28.120 --> 37:32.440 So it's a very complicated situation, but I find it to be really fascinating because

37:32.440 --> 37:37.960 we're right at the beginning guys of, of robots really starting to go into many different

37:37.960 --> 37:41.060 industries and, and you know, they're going to proliferate.

37:41.060 --> 37:43.320 They're going to, they're starting to show up everywhere.

37:43.320 --> 37:49.820 What I want to know though, Jay, is what's the difference between a robot coworker making

37:49.820 --> 37:52.720 an error and a human coworker making an error?

37:52.720 --> 37:53.720 Maybe it's the same.

37:53.720 --> 37:54.720 Yeah.

37:54.720 --> 37:55.720 They were, I agree.

37:55.720 --> 37:56.800 And they were, they studied that.

37:56.800 --> 38:01.400 They studied humans as well, like human and humans working together.

38:01.400 --> 38:03.400 And were they fine?

38:03.400 --> 38:07.360 Well, from what I read, it seemed to be very similar to the response to the robot.

38:07.360 --> 38:08.360 Yeah.

38:08.360 --> 38:12.880 So I was going to say the through line here might be that people react the same to working

38:12.880 --> 38:16.120 with a robot as they do with a human, right?

38:16.120 --> 38:20.760 And as far as at least that is concerned that they will trust a robot, but that trust will

38:20.760 --> 38:25.620 go down when the robot makes mistakes, just like you would read same way you would respond

38:25.620 --> 38:31.160 to a human coworker, which is what I think, you know, my take on the totality of this

38:31.160 --> 38:36.060 research is that, yeah, people will treat robots like people, you know, as long as they

38:36.060 --> 38:37.060 act like people.

38:37.060 --> 38:38.160 They'll be treated like people.

38:38.160 --> 38:40.120 The fact that they're a machine makes no difference.

38:40.120 --> 38:44.800 See, they did say that if you put googly eyes on the robot arm, that it could anger some

38:44.800 --> 38:45.800 people.

38:45.800 --> 38:46.800 Yeah.

38:46.800 --> 38:47.800 That could.

38:47.800 --> 38:48.800 Yeah.

38:48.800 --> 38:49.800 But how cool is this, guys?

38:49.800 --> 38:54.560 I mean, we are, we are studying people's brains to see how they react to working with a robot.

38:54.560 --> 38:55.560 I just love that.

38:55.560 --> 38:56.560 Yeah.

38:56.560 --> 39:01.720 I mean, there's, there's a lot of angles to this research, making robot faces be expressive,

39:01.720 --> 39:06.560 have emotion, you know, having softer robot parts so they could interact in human spaces

39:06.560 --> 39:07.560 more.

39:07.560 --> 39:11.720 So I think this is just one piece of a much bigger puzzle, you know, in terms of robots

39:11.720 --> 39:12.720 in human spaces.

39:12.720 --> 39:13.720 Right.

39:13.720 --> 39:14.720 Yeah.

39:14.720 --> 39:18.440 As Bob was saying, having hard robots on factory floors where people don't go, that's different.

39:18.440 --> 39:19.440 That's easy.

39:19.440 --> 39:20.440 We've been doing that for decades.

39:20.440 --> 39:24.160 But like having a robot in your house, that's a totally different kettle of fish.

39:24.160 --> 39:28.400 Well, just to make it perfectly clear, Steve, this was a collaboration workspace.

39:28.400 --> 39:31.920 Like they had to work together, like they had to, they were touching the same parts.

39:31.920 --> 39:35.720 They had to hand things off to each other and do, you know, some coordinated movements.

39:35.720 --> 39:36.720 Totally.

39:36.720 --> 39:37.720 Yeah.

39:37.720 --> 39:40.400 So that I could, I could really see how fatiguing that would be.

39:40.400 --> 39:45.240 Imagine, you know, you're working an eight hour shift and the robot is, is having problems

39:45.240 --> 39:46.560 over and over and over again.

39:46.560 --> 39:49.120 You'd get to the point where you want to pull your hair out, you know?

39:49.120 --> 39:50.120 Yeah.

39:50.120 --> 39:51.120 All right.

39:51.120 --> 39:52.120 Thanks, Jay.

Lottery Miracle (39:52)

• [link_URL TITLE]

39:52.120 --> 39:54.840 So guys, have you heard, Evan, you sent this to everybody, but you've read the article

39:54.840 --> 39:58.440 or heard about the lottery miracle that happened earlier this week.

39:58.440 --> 40:02.160 Well, there was a miracle or maybe it was last week.

40:02.160 --> 40:03.160 Yep.

40:03.160 --> 40:04.160 Yeah.

40:04.160 --> 40:08.080 So tell me what, tell me what logical fallacy this is.

40:08.080 --> 40:10.800 Here is the headline of the New York post.

40:10.800 --> 40:13.200 Now I know the New York post is a rag.

40:13.200 --> 40:19.040 You don't have to tell me a high quality, uh, journal Alexander Hamilton founded the

40:19.040 --> 40:20.040 New York post.

40:20.040 --> 40:21.200 What are you talking about?

40:21.200 --> 40:22.200 We love that.

40:22.200 --> 40:23.200 Whatever.

40:23.200 --> 40:26.120 But all of the local news had basically the same reporting, right?

40:26.120 --> 40:28.600 This was just the local news reported it this way.

40:28.600 --> 40:32.920 It hit the national news, but with all the local news reporting, this is the way it was

40:32.920 --> 40:33.920 reported.

40:33.920 --> 40:42.040 So here's the New York post headline, one in 331 billion chance, same New York lottery

40:42.040 --> 40:44.680 numbers drawn twice in one day.

40:44.680 --> 40:45.680 Oh, wow.

40:45.680 --> 40:46.680 You guys think about that.

40:46.680 --> 40:47.680 That happened.

40:47.680 --> 40:50.680 I've never heard of that.

40:50.680 --> 40:52.520 It did happen.

40:52.520 --> 40:56.040 What do you think about the one in 331 billion chance of that happening?

40:56.040 --> 40:57.040 That seems pretty remarkable.

40:57.040 --> 41:00.680 Well, I mean, how many, how many times, I mean, it's a law of large numbers, right?

41:00.680 --> 41:03.720 I mean, you have a lot of lottery numbers are being pulled.

41:03.720 --> 41:07.180 All the time, all over the country, although in many countries.

41:07.180 --> 41:12.680 So the chance is one place doing the same number twice is not as crazy as you might

41:12.680 --> 41:13.680 think.

41:13.680 --> 41:15.200 Do you think there are billions of lottery draws?

41:15.200 --> 41:16.200 No, there's not.

41:16.200 --> 41:20.840 And it is, you know, a hell of a coincidence if it happened and it's a five number system

41:20.840 --> 41:25.560 at one through, Oh, what's the 38, I think it's 39, it goes to 39.

41:25.560 --> 41:26.800 So numbers one through 39.

41:26.800 --> 41:31.200 So, well, here's the, all right, so it's actually not a big deal at all.

41:31.200 --> 41:34.440 And the 331 billion is wrong.

41:34.440 --> 41:35.720 It's straight up wrong.

41:35.720 --> 41:37.000 They lied to me.

41:37.000 --> 41:38.000 So all right.

41:38.000 --> 41:42.820 So as Evan says, a five number system, the chance of getting any particular sequence

41:42.820 --> 41:43.880 of numbers, right?

41:43.880 --> 41:52.300 So, or the chance of winning with a single ticket is one in 575,757, right?

41:52.300 --> 41:55.520 So the chance of drawing the same number twice in a row is what?

41:55.520 --> 41:56.520 It's the same.

41:56.520 --> 41:57.520 It's the same.

41:57.520 --> 42:03.560 So the chance of winning with a single ticket is one in 575,757, the first number could

42:03.560 --> 42:04.560 be anything.

42:04.560 --> 42:08.840 It's the chance of the second number matching the first number.

42:08.840 --> 42:09.840 That's it.

42:09.840 --> 42:11.080 That's the probability.

42:11.080 --> 42:15.400 So the 331 billion is calculating it for both numbers, right?

42:15.400 --> 42:21.120 You would have had to place a bet if you were, if you bet for both numbers ahead of time,

42:21.120 --> 42:25.800 that's the 331 billion, but just the fact that, so the other thing, right?

42:25.800 --> 42:26.800 So that's wrong.

42:26.800 --> 42:27.800 They're saying it was a one.

42:27.800 --> 42:34.120 They said, but experts told us, so experts took out their calculator, squared 575,757

42:34.120 --> 42:37.200 and came up with a number, but that's absolutely wrong.

42:37.200 --> 42:38.200 So what's the fallacy?

42:38.200 --> 42:45.740 Well, it's really the expert fallacy really obvious when you think about it, really obvious

42:45.740 --> 42:55.520 when you think about it, but the lottery fallacy, the lottery fallacy, that was another trick.

42:55.520 --> 43:00.920 First the New York Post, then Steve, I can't take this because they're calculating the

43:00.920 --> 43:06.880 odds of those numbers coming up rather than any numbers coming up, right?

43:06.880 --> 43:13.840 So but it's even a little worse than that because they're deciding on the pattern after

43:13.840 --> 43:14.840 the fact, right?

43:14.840 --> 43:16.600 So there's a sort of little bit of post hoc thing.

43:16.600 --> 43:21.660 So for example, would they have reported this if the numbers came up twice in a row, even

43:21.660 --> 43:23.600 if they weren't both in the same day?

43:23.600 --> 43:24.600 Of course they would.

43:24.600 --> 43:25.600 Right?

43:25.600 --> 43:30.840 The reason why we tend to see a lot of coincidences is because we are retrofitting, like we're

43:30.840 --> 43:33.800 deciding what the pattern is after we see it, right?

43:33.800 --> 43:34.800 We love pattern seeking.

43:34.800 --> 43:35.800 It's like we do it with dice.

43:35.800 --> 43:36.800 Yeah.

43:36.800 --> 43:37.800 What are the odds?

43:37.800 --> 43:38.800 I rolled a seven three times in a row.

43:38.800 --> 43:39.800 The same as the odds of rolling anything.

43:39.800 --> 43:40.800 Yeah, right.

43:40.800 --> 43:47.960 In this case, you could say, well, you know, it doesn't have to be two numbers coming up

43:47.960 --> 43:48.960 in the same day.

43:48.960 --> 43:51.320 It could just be two in a row.

43:51.320 --> 43:55.120 So this is a daily seven days a week, twice a day lottery.

43:55.120 --> 44:00.500 So it's literally 365 opportunities for this to happen every year.

44:00.500 --> 44:07.420 So in 10 years, in 10 years, the odds of this happening, one in 157.

44:07.420 --> 44:08.420 Not that big.

44:08.420 --> 44:09.420 No.

44:09.420 --> 44:12.040 One in 131 billion.

44:12.040 --> 44:14.040 It's really one in 157.

44:14.040 --> 44:18.880 If you consider like if this should happen once every, you know, whatever, a few decades.

44:18.880 --> 44:24.360 The other thing is there are 180 lotteries in the world, right?

44:24.360 --> 44:29.760 So out of those hundreds, this should happen every year or whatever, you know, exactly

44:29.760 --> 44:31.760 how many times those are those were repeated.

44:31.760 --> 44:34.700 But something like this should be happening on a regular basis.

44:34.700 --> 44:35.700 And guess what?

44:35.700 --> 44:36.700 It does.

44:36.700 --> 44:42.240 The first time this has happened in 2009, but the Bulgarian lottery turned out the same

44:42.240 --> 44:43.240 numbers in one week.

44:43.240 --> 44:44.240 Right.

44:44.240 --> 44:48.560 And that was considered to be too big a coincidence to have been happening.

44:48.560 --> 44:49.560 It's rigged.

44:49.560 --> 44:50.560 There's something wrong with the system.

44:50.560 --> 44:51.560 It should be happening.

44:51.560 --> 44:52.560 Oh, my God.

44:52.560 --> 44:53.560 All the time.

44:53.560 --> 44:56.880 You know, it would be extraordinary if it didn't happen.

44:56.880 --> 44:57.880 Right.

44:57.880 --> 44:58.880 Exactly.

44:58.880 --> 45:05.440 And if we extend it out to a week, if we do 14 sets of numbers, that's 91 possible comparisons

45:05.440 --> 45:07.920 out of that hundred and fifty seven.

45:07.920 --> 45:12.800 So it's basically a bit greater than 50 percent chance that you go that that would happen.

45:12.800 --> 45:14.880 So anyway, it's it should happen.

45:14.880 --> 45:15.880 Yeah.

45:15.880 --> 45:17.980 It's this kind of thing should be happening.

45:17.980 --> 45:21.980 But the fact that I mean, I know that, you know, whatever, again, the local news isn't

45:21.980 --> 45:22.980 going to get this right.

45:22.980 --> 45:27.240 You know, they're going to present it in the most sensational way possible.

45:27.240 --> 45:31.060 So somebody because somebody with a calculator is, by definition, an expert, right?

45:31.060 --> 45:34.640 Somebody multiplied those two numbers with three hundred thirty one billion.

45:34.640 --> 45:35.640 That was enough for them.

45:35.640 --> 45:38.600 They didn't have to think about it for two seconds.

45:38.600 --> 45:42.320 And then, you know, you see that that was their headline one in three hundred thirty

45:42.320 --> 45:43.320 one billion chance.

45:43.320 --> 45:45.780 But I knew that had to be wrong or had to be something wrong about that.

45:45.780 --> 45:47.640 But it was it was pretty quick to figure that out.

45:47.640 --> 45:53.120 And so that concept, you know, because I wrote about this and the people were talking about

45:53.120 --> 45:57.720 in the in the in the comments, every time this idea comes up, some people just have

45:57.720 --> 46:04.000 a hard time wrapping their brain around the basic concept of the lottery fallacy.

46:04.000 --> 46:08.320 It's like, yeah, but the chance of that person winning was still really low.

46:08.320 --> 46:11.080 It's like, yeah, but you're deciding that after the fact.

46:11.080 --> 46:15.080 I heard somebody in the comments had another great example.

46:15.080 --> 46:22.120 It's like hitting a golf ball into a fairway and the golf ball lands somewhere on the fairway.

46:22.120 --> 46:26.200 And let's say it hits one blade of grass dead center.

46:26.200 --> 46:31.280 That blade of grass must feel really special, right?

46:31.280 --> 46:35.580 But after the fact, you could say, yeah, what were the odds that that blade of grass was

46:35.580 --> 46:36.580 hit by that ball?

46:36.580 --> 46:37.840 It's astronomical.

46:37.840 --> 46:38.840 That's the sharpshooter fallacy.

46:38.840 --> 46:39.840 Yeah.

46:39.840 --> 46:43.360 But the drawing the circle after that is the similar.

46:43.360 --> 46:45.680 There are similar logical problems with that.

46:45.680 --> 46:46.680 Yeah.

46:46.680 --> 46:50.700 It would be like conclude like something miraculous must have happened because the probability

46:50.700 --> 46:54.440 of me hitting that blade of grass was so remote.

46:54.440 --> 46:56.760 But of course, yeah, of course, determine that after you hit it.

46:56.760 --> 47:00.600 But of course, the probability of hitting some blade of grass approaches one.

47:00.600 --> 47:01.600 Right.

47:01.600 --> 47:02.600 I mean, 100 percent.

47:02.600 --> 47:03.600 Yeah.

47:03.600 --> 47:04.600 Unless you get lost.

47:04.600 --> 47:05.600 Unless you're horrible at golf.

47:05.600 --> 47:06.600 Yeah.

47:06.600 --> 47:07.600 Or you land in a sand trap, I guess.

47:07.600 --> 47:10.920 You know, but if you're if you're driving on the fairway, I mean, let's say there's

47:10.920 --> 47:12.580 no sand traps in range.

47:12.580 --> 47:16.340 It's pretty close to 100 percent that you're going to hit some blade of grass.

47:16.340 --> 47:17.760 It's the same idea.

47:17.760 --> 47:18.880 It's the same idea.

47:18.880 --> 47:24.160 So anyway, but again, we talk about before, like somebody winning the lottery twice.

47:24.160 --> 47:28.040 It also happens on a regular basis and should happen on a regular basis.

47:28.040 --> 47:29.680 My grandmother won the lottery twice.

47:29.680 --> 47:30.680 I've never played.

47:30.680 --> 47:33.200 There you go.

47:33.200 --> 47:38.400 And they always reported as the probability of two individual tickets winning.

47:38.400 --> 47:42.720 I'd like to point out she probably spent more than what she won.

47:42.720 --> 47:44.080 I'm sure of that.

47:44.080 --> 47:51.280 Well, actually, I don't know how much she won the first and thirty eight thousand Canadian.

47:51.280 --> 47:54.680 And the second time was over two hundred thirty thousand.

47:54.680 --> 47:55.680 J.K.

47:55.680 --> 48:01.240 He gave me thirty bucks every day, like throughout my childhood, all the way up to a very nice.

48:01.240 --> 48:06.640 But it's a common myth that people who win the lottery fritter away their winnings.

48:06.640 --> 48:12.080 Usually people who win the lottery maintain their wealth long term and most of them invest

48:12.080 --> 48:13.080 it wisely.

48:13.080 --> 48:14.080 Right.

48:14.080 --> 48:17.840 I think what she meant is she spent more playing the lottery than she ever won.

48:17.840 --> 48:20.680 Yeah, she played every day.

48:20.680 --> 48:21.680 Yeah.

48:21.680 --> 48:22.680 Yeah.

48:22.680 --> 48:23.680 Lotteries have issues.

48:23.680 --> 48:24.680 It would be interesting to calculate that.

48:24.680 --> 48:26.080 You're better off.

48:26.080 --> 48:27.080 You are better off.

48:27.080 --> 48:30.400 Like let's say you're going to invest ten dollars a week in lottery tickets or twenty

48:30.400 --> 48:31.440 dollars a week in lottery tickets.

48:31.440 --> 48:34.160 Just put that money in an IRA every week.

48:34.160 --> 48:35.160 You'd be better off.

48:35.160 --> 48:36.160 Better off.

48:36.160 --> 48:37.160 All right.

Mechanical Neural Network (48:37)

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48:37.160 --> 48:41.000 Bob, what is this mechanical neural network that sounds suspicious?

48:41.000 --> 48:42.400 What is that?

48:42.400 --> 48:44.280 This kind of came out of nowhere.

48:44.280 --> 48:45.480 This is really fascinating.

48:45.480 --> 48:51.280 It's a new type of engineered material called the mechanical neural network that takes inspiration

48:51.280 --> 48:56.560 from artificial neural networks and machine learning to adapt and improve its ability

48:56.560 --> 49:00.280 to deal with unexpected forces and even change shape.

49:00.280 --> 49:04.520 So this is an interesting advance by UCLA mechanical engineers, and it's described

49:04.520 --> 49:08.960 in the journal Science Robotics, and it's called Mechanical Neural Networks, architected

49:08.960 --> 49:11.560 materials that learn behaviors.

49:11.560 --> 49:16.040 Now this new approach to material science, it reminds me of metamaterials, Steve, you

49:16.040 --> 49:21.120 might be reminded of as well, because metamaterials, we've talked about many times on the show,

49:21.120 --> 49:26.080 metamaterials have properties that derived essentially from its micro or nano structure

49:26.080 --> 49:28.280 instead of its chemical properties.

49:28.280 --> 49:32.120 It doesn't matter really what it's made of, it's just how it's organized.

49:32.120 --> 49:35.960 So this new type of material I'm talking about gets its properties from its design

49:35.960 --> 49:37.600 and its geometry.

49:37.600 --> 49:43.640 In this way, they often discuss how it's similar to Velcro and that it doesn't matter

49:43.640 --> 49:44.960 what the Velcro is made of.

49:44.960 --> 49:48.720 As long as it has those hooks and those loops, it's going to function no matter what it's

49:48.720 --> 49:49.720 made of.

49:49.720 --> 49:53.080 That will work because it's basically the hooks and the loops that are doing the work.

49:53.080 --> 49:57.960 So a mechanical neural network consists of beams that are organized in a sort of triangular

49:57.960 --> 50:03.760 lattice pattern that change length and stiffen when needed and can interact with other beams.

50:03.760 --> 50:06.480 That's one of the critical aspects to it.

50:06.480 --> 50:13.120 It's that connection between all these little beams that make it similar to neural networks.

50:13.120 --> 50:17.360 Now neural networks, we've described them as well on the show, neural networks build

50:17.360 --> 50:22.360 up deep learning algorithms by passing or not passing data from one node to a deeper

50:22.360 --> 50:24.440 node in the network.

50:24.440 --> 50:28.540 The strength of that connection is manipulated and it's called a weight.

50:28.540 --> 50:33.320 So mechanical neural networks, on the other hand, they tune the weighted connections between

50:33.320 --> 50:39.640 those beams in a similar way by making them stiffer or weaker depending on what they want

50:39.640 --> 50:42.500 to achieve in the environment and things like that.

50:42.500 --> 50:47.600 So that's how it's similar to the neural networks in artificial intelligence.

50:47.600 --> 50:53.360 The engineers say this, they say, we hypothesize that a mechanical lattice with physical nodes

50:53.360 --> 50:57.960 could be trained to take on certain mechanical properties by adjusting each connection's

50:57.960 --> 50:58.960 rigidity.

50:58.960 --> 51:03.280 The idea was to have the mechanical lattice be able to adopt and maintain new properties

51:03.280 --> 51:08.720 like taking on a new shape or changing directional strength and they finished here saying once

51:08.720 --> 51:13.360 the many connections are tuned to achieve a set of tasks, the material will continue

51:13.360 --> 51:15.360 to react in the desired way.

51:15.360 --> 51:20.400 The training is in a sense remembered in the structure of the material itself.

51:20.400 --> 51:22.600 So now they show that this idea actually works.

51:22.600 --> 51:28.760 They built a prototype, they actually about as big as a microwave, it's like a prototype

51:28.760 --> 51:33.940 lattice that they built that was actually able to learn and morph in specific ways when

51:33.940 --> 51:36.620 various forces were applied to it.

51:36.620 --> 51:40.500 So now in the future, they speculate that this could be used as say, for example, part

51:40.500 --> 51:46.660 of a plane wing that could adapt to unexpected things like say internal damage to the inside

51:46.660 --> 51:53.040 the wing itself or unusual or strong wind patterns that just were not expected.

51:53.040 --> 51:57.580 It could strengthen and weaken connections to maintain important attributes like directional

51:57.580 --> 51:59.660 strength because that's pretty much important.

51:59.660 --> 52:04.480 You want to be very strong, those wings need to be very strong in the direction of movement.

52:04.480 --> 52:09.800 So this thing could actually adapt and change so that it maintains that directional strength

52:09.800 --> 52:14.920 regardless of what's going on, whether there's even some weakening of the wings itself or

52:14.920 --> 52:21.360 if the connection to the body of the plane is being changed somehow, it could actually

52:21.360 --> 52:23.720 adapt to that kind of stuff.

52:23.720 --> 52:28.240 Then over time, the algorithm would actually maintain these new properties.

52:28.240 --> 52:32.880 So you could easily extrapolate this idea to buildings, earthquake protection, making

52:32.880 --> 52:38.640 the building stronger and adapting to earthquakes and many other things.

52:38.640 --> 52:44.440 So moving forward, the researchers hope to move from their essentially 2D prototype that

52:44.440 --> 52:49.080 they created to something with smaller components that's three dimensional.

52:49.080 --> 52:53.400 Regarding this, they say, the material my colleagues and I created is a proof of concept

52:53.400 --> 52:57.000 and shows the potential of mechanical neural networks.

52:57.000 --> 53:01.040 But to bring this idea into the real world will require figuring out how to make the

53:01.040 --> 53:06.520 individual pieces smaller and with precise properties of flex and tension.

53:06.520 --> 53:11.240 We hope new research in the manufacturing of materials at the micron scale will lead

53:11.240 --> 53:16.520 to advances that make powerful, smart mechanical neural networks with micron scale elements

53:16.520 --> 53:22.000 and dense three dimensional connections a ubiquitous reality in the near future.

53:22.000 --> 53:27.800 They even describe ideas to use this in armor to deflect shock waves and also using sound

53:27.800 --> 53:29.600 waves in acoustic imaging.

53:29.600 --> 53:31.680 So, yeah, this is fascinating.

53:31.680 --> 53:34.200 I'm really curious to see where this is going to go.

53:34.200 --> 53:38.920 Clearly, though, they need to be able to migrate this idea to the three dimensional scale because

53:38.920 --> 53:40.400 that's where the real power of this would come in.

53:40.400 --> 53:45.880 I'm not sure how much utility it would have in purely two dimensional applications.

53:45.880 --> 53:49.480 But also, and of course, it's got to get a lot smaller and they talk about that micron

53:49.480 --> 53:53.600 scale or even eventually potentially nano scale as well.

53:53.600 --> 53:58.940 Imagine, could you combine this idea with metamaterials, metamaterials with mechanical

53:58.940 --> 53:59.940 neural networks?

53:59.940 --> 54:00.940 What would that be like?

54:00.940 --> 54:07.180 In a way, this idea, it makes these systems more like a biology that could actually adapt

54:07.180 --> 54:11.160 and change to the environment like biology on Earth does.

54:11.160 --> 54:12.160 It's fascinating stuff.

54:12.160 --> 54:13.160 Yeah.

54:13.160 --> 54:14.160 Yeah.

54:14.160 --> 54:18.420 When we like research this, that's one of the this, you know, embodies a couple of themes

54:18.420 --> 54:21.640 that we sort of came up with in terms of future technology.

54:21.640 --> 54:27.200 One is that the distinction between biology and machines is going to get blurry as we

54:27.200 --> 54:28.200 go forward.

54:28.200 --> 54:32.880 You know, sure, biology will be you'll have more machine components and machines will

54:32.880 --> 54:34.400 act more like biology.

54:34.400 --> 54:36.300 This is an example of that.

54:36.300 --> 54:42.440 But also, like one of the real game changing advances for technology is new materials.

54:42.440 --> 54:46.000 We've said that before on the show, like material science is the thing that changes

54:46.000 --> 54:47.000 the game.

54:47.000 --> 54:48.000 Care's favorite discipline.

54:48.000 --> 54:49.000 Yeah.

54:49.000 --> 54:50.000 It really is.

54:50.000 --> 54:54.320 The stuff that you, a lot of the cutting edge stuff that you get is because of a material

54:54.320 --> 54:55.320 science breakthrough.

54:55.320 --> 54:56.320 Yeah.

54:56.320 --> 54:59.960 And it's so dramatic and we're seeing, you know, a lot of, we say that in the book, Steve,

54:59.960 --> 55:05.160 a lot of the materials that we use today very commonly have been around for centuries, if

55:05.160 --> 55:06.920 not millennia, right?

55:06.920 --> 55:09.160 But I think some of that's changing now.

55:09.160 --> 55:15.200 And you know, especially with, you know, automating the research and kind of like research building

55:15.200 --> 55:19.060 on research, you know, standing on the shoulders of giants, creating, you know, having these

55:19.060 --> 55:22.000 breakthroughs in material science, I think are just going to come faster.

55:22.000 --> 55:23.280 Yeah, I agree.

55:23.280 --> 55:27.080 Although I still think the stuff we've been using for thousands of years actually was

55:27.080 --> 55:29.120 still going to be around for a long time.

55:29.120 --> 55:30.120 Yeah.

55:30.120 --> 55:31.120 They'll be coexisting.

55:31.120 --> 55:32.120 They'll be coexisting.

55:32.120 --> 55:36.200 It's not going to do away with cement and concrete and wood, right?

55:36.200 --> 55:37.200 That's not going anywhere.

55:37.200 --> 55:38.200 Steel.

55:38.200 --> 55:39.200 Yeah.

55:39.200 --> 55:40.200 It's not going anywhere.

55:40.200 --> 55:41.200 All right.

55:41.200 --> 55:42.200 Thanks, Bob.

Special Report: History of Vibrators (55:42)

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55:42.200 --> 55:43.200 All right, Carrie, you're going to do a special report.

55:43.200 --> 55:45.460 It's not really a news item, but you, you discussed.

55:45.460 --> 55:46.960 It was a science or fiction.

55:46.960 --> 55:51.180 And the idea came up about Victorian medicine.

55:51.180 --> 55:57.680 Did Victorian physicians treat, quote unquote, hysteria in women with vibrators?

55:57.680 --> 56:03.360 And there's, you know, we inadvertently crowdsourced that claim and we got some amazing feedback.

56:03.360 --> 56:08.200 So what's, what's the, we had to do a deeper dive on that, on that specific question.

56:08.200 --> 56:09.200 Yeah, Steve.

56:09.200 --> 56:13.720 So, so thinking back to that science or fiction item, I think we just kind of like we often

56:13.720 --> 56:18.320 do throughout the conventional knowledge that we have, which is, oh yeah, back in the day,

56:18.320 --> 56:23.320 Victorian era, blah, blah, blah, doctors, hysteria, they treated hysteria by bringing

56:23.320 --> 56:24.760 women to orgasm.

56:24.760 --> 56:28.720 They treated it by bringing women to orgasm with vibrators.

56:28.720 --> 56:37.260 And apparently some components of that are possibly true, but like the, the larger claims

56:37.260 --> 56:42.920 that most of us sort of just regurgitate may actually be a myth.

56:42.920 --> 56:49.920 And it's a really interesting story as to how all of this came to be discovered.

56:49.920 --> 56:55.960 So there was a book, we're going to start with a book, and this book was written by

56:55.960 --> 57:00.400 Rachel Maines in 1999.

57:00.400 --> 57:06.760 And the book is called The Technology of Orgasm, Hysteria, the Vibrator and Women's Sexual

57:06.760 --> 57:08.320 Satisfaction.

57:08.320 --> 57:11.480 It was published by Johns Hopkins University Press.

57:11.480 --> 57:14.180 So this is not a trade publication.

57:14.180 --> 57:18.860 It's an academic publication, which means that it was subject to peer review.

57:18.860 --> 57:21.360 So that's something that's important to remember.

57:21.360 --> 57:26.680 It was not subject to intensive fact checking like a journalistic publications are, but

57:26.680 --> 57:27.960 it was subject to peer review.

57:27.960 --> 57:31.620 There were editors involved and it was published by an academic press.

57:31.620 --> 57:39.880 So this book that was written has been cited a lot of times, like a lot, a lot of times.

57:39.880 --> 57:48.220 And Maines' ideas in this book seem to be the template, the basis for a lot of the folk

57:48.220 --> 57:51.100 knowledge that we all use.

57:51.100 --> 57:54.840 The interesting thing is it wasn't really made up out of whole cloth.

57:54.840 --> 58:03.200 It was like a lot of out of context quotes, a lot of kind of stretches in explanations

58:03.200 --> 58:08.400 that ultimately seemed right, felt like, made sense for the zeitgeist that then would be

58:08.400 --> 58:13.260 cited and cited and cited, and everybody just kind of knew this to be.

58:13.260 --> 58:20.500 So now enter Hallie Lieberman, who at the time is a PhD student.

58:20.500 --> 58:21.860 She's a historian.

58:21.860 --> 58:24.460 Also Rachel Maines was a historian.

58:24.460 --> 58:31.600 And Hallie Lieberman is writing her dissertation, her thesis on technology and technology's

58:31.600 --> 58:34.160 use in orgasm.

58:34.160 --> 58:44.740 And she goes to her thesis advisor, Dr. Eric Schatzberg, also at Georgia Tech, and then

58:44.740 --> 58:50.620 Ms. Lieberman, now Dr. Lieberman, started to ask some questions.

58:50.620 --> 58:55.220 And he said, you know, it's a good exercise when you're doing this academic type of research

58:55.220 --> 59:02.100 to not just read the sources that make up your structure of knowledge, but to see who

59:02.100 --> 59:03.540 they were citing.

59:03.540 --> 59:08.820 So go back multiple levels and understand the people who you're citing, who were they

59:08.820 --> 59:09.820 citing?

59:09.820 --> 59:11.780 And so she started to do that with Rachel Maines' book.

59:11.780 --> 59:15.960 And she was like, uh-oh, I see some real red flags here.

59:15.960 --> 59:18.140 She's citing these different people.

59:18.140 --> 59:22.000 And that's not what I'm reading that they said.

59:22.000 --> 59:25.960 Like I'm interpreting some of these quotes wildly differently.

59:25.960 --> 59:31.820 And so they started to systematically try to make sense of this book, The Technology

59:31.820 --> 59:33.180 of Orgasm.

59:33.180 --> 59:39.300 And what they found is that there are three main claims that are made in the book.

59:39.300 --> 59:46.060 So you could kind of break down her core argument is that Victorian physicians used vibrators,

59:46.060 --> 59:50.760 electromechanical vibrators, specifically on the clitorises of women to bring them to

59:50.760 --> 59:56.740 orgasm and that that was a typical treatment for hysteria at the time.

59:56.740 --> 01:00:05.200 And you can kind of break that down into three different main claims.

01:00:05.200 --> 01:00:12.600 The first one is that clitoral massage with a vibrator, and this was big in Maines' book,

01:00:12.600 --> 01:00:20.060 was not seen as a sexual act because it was long viewed that sex with women was only penetrative.

01:00:20.060 --> 01:00:24.440 And the purpose of sex was like it was very male focused.

01:00:24.440 --> 01:00:29.560 So anything where a woman would have an orgasm from clitoral stimulation wasn't viewed as

01:00:29.560 --> 01:00:30.980 sex because it was like useless.

01:00:30.980 --> 01:00:31.980 Right.

01:00:31.980 --> 01:00:32.980 Where did the man get out of that?

01:00:32.980 --> 01:00:33.980 Right.

01:00:33.980 --> 01:00:34.980 Exactly.

01:00:34.980 --> 01:00:39.020 So that's the first claim was that because doctors didn't see it as sexual because no

01:00:39.020 --> 01:00:46.220 penetration was involved, it was a perfectly cromulent medical practice.

01:00:46.220 --> 01:00:52.480 The second claim was that vibrators were widely used to treat hysteria.

01:00:52.480 --> 01:00:58.540 And finally, sort of the bigger funnel claim there, is that massaging the clitoris, even

01:00:58.540 --> 01:01:03.020 pre-vibrator invention, was a practice.

01:01:03.020 --> 01:01:08.660 That physicians did this regularly and it persisted throughout the Victorian era.

01:01:08.660 --> 01:01:11.780 And basically that vibrators were invented.

01:01:11.780 --> 01:01:16.100 When vibrators were invented, doctors were like, great, now we no longer have to spend

01:01:16.100 --> 01:01:20.940 a whole hour doing this manual stimulation of the clitoris to induce this orgasm which

01:01:20.940 --> 01:01:25.460 will treat her hysteria, but instead we have a tool so our arms don't get tired and it's

01:01:25.460 --> 01:01:28.140 way easier and I can see more patients and I can make more money.

01:01:28.140 --> 01:01:30.620 And that's really the crux of the argument.

01:01:30.620 --> 01:01:37.300 And there's a paper that came out again by these two Georgia Tech researchers, Drs. Lieberman

01:01:37.300 --> 01:01:43.760 and Schatzberg, that basically systematically, this was in 2018, so quite recently, systematically

01:01:43.760 --> 01:01:51.320 breaks down every aspect of their argument or of her, of Rachel Maines' argument.

01:01:51.320 --> 01:01:54.700 You'll see some interviews with Rachel Maines.

01:01:54.700 --> 01:02:00.780 You'll see some writings where she basically says, oh, well, I was just testing a hypothesis.

01:02:00.780 --> 01:02:03.540 Not testing, I was just talking about a hypothesis.

01:02:03.540 --> 01:02:06.460 I hypothesized that that's what was going on.

01:02:06.460 --> 01:02:09.360 I didn't ever actually say that that's what was going on.

01:02:09.360 --> 01:02:15.260 But sadly, when you actually read the core text, the tone is pretty assertive.

01:02:15.260 --> 01:02:16.540 This is what they did.

01:02:16.540 --> 01:02:17.540 This is why they did it.

01:02:17.540 --> 01:02:21.780 And remember, this was being written by an academic historian and then she cites a bunch

01:02:21.780 --> 01:02:22.780 of evidence to support it.

01:02:22.780 --> 01:02:23.780 Yeah, right.

01:02:23.780 --> 01:02:24.780 Where are the citations?

01:02:24.780 --> 01:02:25.780 Well, but that's the thing.

01:02:25.780 --> 01:02:26.780 It's not just about a citation.

01:02:26.780 --> 01:02:29.980 It's about what is that citation actually saying and how is it said?

01:02:29.980 --> 01:02:34.900 And that's the nuance that you get when you read this 2018 review because there are lots

01:02:34.900 --> 01:02:38.180 of examples that you can pick out.

01:02:38.180 --> 01:02:41.620 I'm not going to spend a lot of time pointing to them, but maybe she'll talk about an example

01:02:41.620 --> 01:02:44.900 where doctors were talking about the finger technique used.

01:02:44.900 --> 01:02:48.780 But if you dig deeper into the original citation, they were actually talking about the finger

01:02:48.780 --> 01:02:54.620 technique used to do manual massage of other body parts for other ailments.

01:02:54.620 --> 01:03:00.660 Or they'll be talking about vibrators, specifically electromechanical vibrators being used as

01:03:00.660 --> 01:03:02.340 a medical treatment.

01:03:02.340 --> 01:03:08.420 But when you actually dig into the source material and you broaden out what you're reading

01:03:08.420 --> 01:03:12.740 other than that tiny quote that was clipped out, you'll see that they were actually referring

01:03:12.740 --> 01:03:19.780 to vibrators to treat all manner of ailments because the vibrators at the time were snake

01:03:19.780 --> 01:03:21.420 oil medicine.

01:03:21.420 --> 01:03:22.540 It was patent medicine.

01:03:22.540 --> 01:03:27.220 When vibrators came out, a lot of physicians were like, it'll treat what ails you.

01:03:27.220 --> 01:03:28.540 You can use it on your intestines.

01:03:28.540 --> 01:03:29.780 You can use it in your mouth.

01:03:29.780 --> 01:03:30.780 You can use it on your butt.

01:03:30.780 --> 01:03:32.020 You can use it on your foot.

01:03:32.020 --> 01:03:36.340 And it'll help with heartburn and it'll help with muscle fatigue and it'll help with whatever.

01:03:36.340 --> 01:03:42.500 Now that's not to say that there isn't some scant evidence in the literature base that

01:03:42.500 --> 01:03:46.740 shows that vibrators were actually used intravaginally.

01:03:46.740 --> 01:03:51.980 And sometimes they were used intravaginally to treat, quote, hysteria.

01:03:51.980 --> 01:03:55.900 Remember hysteria is a very old diagnosis that goes back to like Hippocrates era.

01:03:55.900 --> 01:04:02.140 They didn't actually use that word, but there were early, early conceptualizations that

01:04:02.140 --> 01:04:07.640 women's uteruses wandered inside of their bodies and that that's what actually caused

01:04:07.640 --> 01:04:15.220 all of these super vague symptoms that very often literally just sound like being alive.

01:04:15.220 --> 01:04:16.220 Being alive.

01:04:16.220 --> 01:04:17.220 How terrible.

01:04:17.220 --> 01:04:18.220 Either that or evil spirits.

01:04:18.220 --> 01:04:19.220 Exactly.

01:04:19.220 --> 01:04:23.940 So first it was like the uterus is wandering and then it was like maybe it's not wandering,

01:04:23.940 --> 01:04:26.180 but you know, something's going on.

01:04:26.180 --> 01:04:27.700 And then it was like, yeah, some evil spirit.

01:04:27.700 --> 01:04:32.740 I mean, there's been iterations throughout, throughout the eras, but hysteria persisted

01:04:32.740 --> 01:04:35.880 as a diagnosis for a very, very long time.

01:04:35.880 --> 01:04:42.260 And there's no question that that was very much of the zeitgeist, that that was a very

01:04:42.260 --> 01:04:45.240 sexist and very lacking in good evidence.

01:04:45.240 --> 01:04:50.900 This was a male dominated field that was studying women in a way that was not very inclusive.

01:04:50.900 --> 01:04:58.960 But sadly, I think because we get that now, this argument that vibrators were used on

01:04:58.960 --> 01:05:03.740 women's clits to induce an orgasm, which was non-sexual in nature, at least so these dumb

01:05:03.740 --> 01:05:08.020 doctors thought, and that way they were treating their hysteria and then the women were loving

01:05:08.020 --> 01:05:10.700 it so they came back to the doctor over and over.

01:05:10.700 --> 01:05:14.780 There doesn't seem to be any evidence to support that.

01:05:14.780 --> 01:05:20.420 Again, a lot of these actual uses that were even remotely close to that claim were intra

01:05:20.420 --> 01:05:25.980 uterine or sorry, intra vaginal or even intra uterine and they were really to treat things

01:05:25.980 --> 01:05:35.860 like uterine prolapse or vaginismus or vaginismus, like different diagnoses that were related

01:05:35.860 --> 01:05:42.040 to sexual health or that were related to pain, bleeding heavily, different things like that.

01:05:42.040 --> 01:05:48.460 But this idea that it was like a vibrator, a clit and hysteria, those three things, it

01:05:48.460 --> 01:05:54.180 looks like mains took the vibrator component, the clit component and the hysteria component

01:05:54.180 --> 01:05:56.020 and glued them together.

01:05:56.020 --> 01:06:00.620 But all of the research that shows that vibrators were used were not used, usually not used

01:06:00.620 --> 01:06:01.960 genitally at all.

01:06:01.960 --> 01:06:04.140 They were also not used to treat hysteria.

01:06:04.140 --> 01:06:09.300 All the research that showed treatments versus hysteria had nothing to do with clitoral massage

01:06:09.300 --> 01:06:13.900 and all of the research that showed anything having to do with anything around the vulva

01:06:13.900 --> 01:06:18.940 very often didn't have anything to do with vibrators or hysteria.

01:06:18.940 --> 01:06:24.280 And so it's pretty interesting that they systematically are able to deconstruct this claim and show

01:06:24.280 --> 01:06:32.300 that dozens if not hundreds of academic papers cited this uncritically because they assumed,

01:06:32.300 --> 01:06:37.860 I mean, it's peer reviewed, that it held water and unfortunately it didn't.

01:06:37.860 --> 01:06:42.380 And so that's why this article is literally called a failure of academic quality control,

01:06:42.380 --> 01:06:44.180 the technology of orgasm.

01:06:44.180 --> 01:06:47.300 So it's not our fault that we, you know, kind of glossed over it.

01:06:47.300 --> 01:06:49.260 Well, I mean, it is and it isn't, right?

01:06:49.260 --> 01:06:54.460 Like this is such a good example of why we all have to work really hard to be good skeptics.

01:06:54.460 --> 01:06:56.900 But at the same time, we can't know everything all the time.

01:06:56.900 --> 01:07:02.100 And that's, it's really fun, I think, when we get a crowdsourced peer review on our show.

01:07:02.100 --> 01:07:03.100 Oh, maybe I shouldn't say that.

01:07:03.100 --> 01:07:04.100 What am I opening the floodgates to?

01:07:04.100 --> 01:07:10.240 Well, it often happens on sort of the off the cuff remarks that we make, which do happen

01:07:10.240 --> 01:07:11.240 regularly.

01:07:11.240 --> 01:07:13.500 So that's bound to happen.

01:07:13.500 --> 01:07:18.520 If we prepare something, we research it and things like that are likely to come up sometimes

01:07:18.520 --> 01:07:19.520 even then.

01:07:19.520 --> 01:07:24.200 Like you go three or four levels deep and it's the fifth level that you get the paper

01:07:24.200 --> 01:07:27.700 that says, or the reference that says, oh no, this is all wrong.

01:07:27.700 --> 01:07:29.580 But usually we do a pretty good job off the cuff.

01:07:29.580 --> 01:07:33.540 I just got to remember that things we think we know, if we didn't recently verify them,

01:07:33.540 --> 01:07:34.540 may not be true.

01:07:34.540 --> 01:07:35.540 Yeah.

01:07:35.540 --> 01:07:41.780 And you can, if you Google sort of like vibrator hysteria, you're going to find a bunch of

01:07:41.780 --> 01:07:52.780 articles from like pre-2016, 17 that are like really credulous and super mainstream publications,

01:07:52.780 --> 01:07:55.980 like scientific, mainstream scientific publications.

01:07:55.980 --> 01:07:58.300 Not easy to say, okay, that's a problem.

01:07:58.300 --> 01:07:59.300 Right.

01:07:59.300 --> 01:08:00.300 Right.

01:08:00.300 --> 01:08:04.260 So after this kind of, you know, was published, then you start to see all of these popular

01:08:04.260 --> 01:08:08.940 write ups of like, hey, maybe it's a myth, like, whoa, we need to be more critical of

01:08:08.940 --> 01:08:09.940 this.

01:08:09.940 --> 01:08:15.100 And again, that's not to say that number one, the vibrator hasn't been used historically

01:08:15.100 --> 01:08:19.460 and isn't still to this day used sometimes as a medical device.

01:08:19.460 --> 01:08:25.740 It is actually listed, like the FDA does have listings of vibrators as the sexual tools

01:08:25.740 --> 01:08:27.540 for very specific purposes.

01:08:27.540 --> 01:08:29.660 It's mostly a trade device, right?

01:08:29.660 --> 01:08:34.860 Obviously we know that vibrators are purchased by women or actually purchased, I shouldn't

01:08:34.860 --> 01:08:38.980 say by women, purchased by anybody who could, you know, benefit from the use of a vibrator

01:08:38.980 --> 01:08:42.900 specifically to enhance sexual pleasure, specifically as a sex toy.

01:08:42.900 --> 01:08:46.340 But they're also often sold as muscle massagers.

01:08:46.340 --> 01:08:47.340 They're sold, yeah.

01:08:47.340 --> 01:08:51.940 I mean, depending on like how kind of puritanical the place you're shopping is and where you

01:08:51.940 --> 01:08:54.740 live and things, they might be sold that way.

01:08:54.740 --> 01:09:00.160 But there are some like FDA listings for vibrators as medical devices.

01:09:00.160 --> 01:09:06.080 And of course now there is a lot of really modern literature about, you know, enhancing

01:09:06.080 --> 01:09:08.980 sexual function through clitoral stimulation with a vibrator.

01:09:08.980 --> 01:09:15.500 Like because we have, we're studying this kind of stuff now and we know that it works.

01:09:15.500 --> 01:09:19.840 So you know, you'll find all sorts of cool, if you want to really read the like the neat

01:09:19.840 --> 01:09:25.100 sexual literature, you know, sex relationships, therapy, human health, all that good stuff.

01:09:25.100 --> 01:09:30.840 But when we're specifically talking about literature from the Victorian era and earlier,

01:09:30.840 --> 01:09:34.480 I think the safest thing to say is there is scant evidence.

01:09:34.480 --> 01:09:36.380 In some cases there is no evidence at all.

01:09:36.380 --> 01:09:40.580 In other cases the evidence shows that this was not a regular practice.

01:09:40.580 --> 01:09:44.580 There were a few kind of French physicians who tried it out and go, oh, we don't really

01:09:44.580 --> 01:09:47.000 think this actually works.

01:09:47.000 --> 01:09:50.620 This doesn't seem to be doing anything for hysteria and they abandoned the practice.

01:09:50.620 --> 01:09:53.580 It just wasn't a regularly used practice like we think it was.

01:09:53.580 --> 01:09:55.540 It went back to electroshock therapy.

01:09:55.540 --> 01:09:56.540 Yeah.

01:09:56.540 --> 01:10:01.460 Well, and eventually, you know, we started to rename what hysteria was.

01:10:01.460 --> 01:10:04.260 There was a movement towards recognizing hysteria in men.

01:10:04.260 --> 01:10:07.180 So then it was like, okay, maybe this has nothing to do with the uterus.

01:10:07.180 --> 01:10:08.500 Maybe it's a misnomer.

01:10:08.500 --> 01:10:09.500 Maybe it's not hysteria.

01:10:09.500 --> 01:10:13.580 And eventually it kind of, it kind of morphed into what we now see as certain aspects of

01:10:13.580 --> 01:10:14.580 mental illness.

01:10:14.580 --> 01:10:16.980 But we didn't understand it back then.

01:10:16.980 --> 01:10:23.180 It's interesting to see the progression of psychological diagnoses over time as well.

01:10:23.180 --> 01:10:26.480 That's a whole different kind of ball of wax, but super interesting.

01:10:26.480 --> 01:10:31.220 And thank you to, I think we had two different listeners who brought that to our attention

01:10:31.220 --> 01:10:32.220 in the emails.

01:10:32.220 --> 01:10:33.220 All right.

01:10:33.220 --> 01:10:34.220 Thank you, Kara.

[top]                        

Interview with ___ ()

• _Interviewee_Topic_Event_
• [link_URL _homepage_or_article_title_]

Skeptical Puzzle ()

• Answer to last week's Puzzle: _brief_description_perhaps_with_link_

Who's That Noisy? (1:10:34)

Answer to previous Noisy:

_brief_description_of_answer_ _perhaps_with_a_link_

01:10:34.220 --> 01:10:36.620 Jay, it's Who's That Noisy Time?

01:10:36.620 --> 01:10:37.620 All right, guys.

01:10:37.620 --> 01:10:41.620 Last week I played this noisy.

01:10:41.620 --> 01:10:48.660 I don't know, it's just a 71, 72, 73.

01:10:48.660 --> 01:11:03.900 Okay, I wasn't really expected to be the loudest type of a person.

01:11:03.900 --> 01:11:16.040 All right, you get the idea.

01:11:16.040 --> 01:11:17.040 Anybody have any guesses?

01:11:17.040 --> 01:11:20.640 That's that old cartoon where the skeleton plays his ribcage like a xylophone.

01:11:20.640 --> 01:11:21.640 Oh, really?

01:11:21.640 --> 01:11:23.360 God, I remember that.

01:11:23.360 --> 01:11:24.960 I totally remember that.

01:11:24.960 --> 01:11:25.960 Winner.

01:11:25.960 --> 01:11:29.760 All right, well, I'll start by saying that I got a lot of correct guesses.

01:11:29.760 --> 01:11:31.800 People did a very good job on this one.

01:11:31.800 --> 01:11:37.460 So I got an email from Tracy McFadden, and Tracy said, hey, Jay, I think this week's

01:11:37.460 --> 01:11:42.340 Noisy is a model train with a striking device that hits objects along the track that are

01:11:42.340 --> 01:11:44.100 tuned to a specific note.

01:11:44.100 --> 01:11:50.040 I have seen something similar done with a moving vehicle hitting things that have been

01:11:50.040 --> 01:11:51.360 set up along a roadway.

01:11:51.360 --> 01:11:53.640 I know exactly what you're talking about.

01:11:53.640 --> 01:11:56.960 And sure, that could make a similar noise.

01:11:56.960 --> 01:12:02.560 But there was no train noises, and this was not a train doing what you described.

01:12:02.560 --> 01:12:07.300 Another listener named John McKinnon said, hi, Jay, this week's Noisy sounds like a xylophone

01:12:07.300 --> 01:12:11.640 or a music box mechanism being powered by a spinning water wheel.

01:12:11.640 --> 01:12:17.600 It sounds like the tempo speeds up and slows down, maybe as the rate of water flow changes.

01:12:17.600 --> 01:12:23.520 You are not correct about the spinning water wheel, but you did get something correct in

01:12:23.520 --> 01:12:27.000 your guess, and you will figure that out in a second as I go on here.

01:12:27.000 --> 01:12:30.240 So now I'm just going to get to basically three people who got it correct.

01:12:30.240 --> 01:12:34.400 So Brian Forte said, Jay, this is a great Noisy.

01:12:34.400 --> 01:12:40.040 He said, it's a marble that is running or rolling over a bunch of wooden bars that are

01:12:40.040 --> 01:12:42.160 cut into specific pitches.

01:12:42.160 --> 01:12:43.160 That is correct.

01:12:43.160 --> 01:12:46.560 Adam Hepburn, his family made a bunch of guesses, but I'll jump to his guess.

01:12:46.560 --> 01:12:50.140 He said, now this is that he identifies the song.

01:12:50.140 --> 01:12:53.400 This song is called Jesu Joy of Man's Desiring.

01:12:53.400 --> 01:12:57.520 That's the English version of it.

01:12:57.520 --> 01:13:01.680 And also, he said, Joy by Apollo 100 is a fun song.

01:13:01.680 --> 01:13:05.320 As for his guess, it sounds like a rolling marble sculpture where the marbles are directed

01:13:05.320 --> 01:13:07.320 to a xylophone so it plays music.

01:13:07.320 --> 01:13:08.320 That is correct.

01:13:08.320 --> 01:13:10.180 So you got the song correct.

01:13:10.180 --> 01:13:13.100 Now I'm going to go down to the last one here.

01:13:13.100 --> 01:13:18.620 This is a Japanese wood ball rolling down steps of different lengths of wood bars as

01:13:18.620 --> 01:13:21.120 part of a musical art display.

01:13:21.120 --> 01:13:25.040 This was sent in by a listener named Winnie Wan.

01:13:25.040 --> 01:13:26.720 This is a cool video that you can look up.

01:13:26.720 --> 01:13:32.400 If you just look up Japanese woods or forest xylophone, you'll be able to see it.

01:13:32.400 --> 01:13:39.480 So in essence, this is a wooden ball or some type of ball, I think it's made out of wood,

01:13:39.480 --> 01:13:47.320 that is rolling down a series of steps and each step is a xylophone note.

01:13:47.320 --> 01:13:48.320 That is a piece of wood.

01:13:48.320 --> 01:13:50.480 So as it rolls down, it's making these noises.

01:13:50.480 --> 01:13:52.840 So maybe you can visualize that as you hear this.

01:13:52.840 --> 01:13:59.760 I'll just forward it a little bit here.

01:13:59.760 --> 01:14:05.480 This ball is literally rolling down as it hits each one of these notes.

01:14:05.480 --> 01:14:06.480 Very cool idea.

01:14:06.480 --> 01:14:07.480 Yeah.

01:14:07.480 --> 01:14:08.480 It's very pretty.

01:14:08.480 --> 01:14:09.480 So you should look it up and take a look at it.

01:14:09.480 --> 01:14:12.520 Like the location and where they did it is wonderful.

01:14:12.520 --> 01:14:15.200 So thank you very much for this noisy.

01:14:15.200 --> 01:14:18.760 This was sent in by Peter Kennald from Japan.

01:14:18.760 --> 01:14:20.680 So maybe he even saw this thing in person.

01:14:20.680 --> 01:14:21.680 You never know.

01:14:21.680 --> 01:14:23.540 I have a new noisy this week, guys.

01:14:23.540 --> 01:14:27.360 This noisy was sent in by a listener named Justin Fisher.

01:14:27.360 --> 01:14:28.360 Check this one out.

01:14:28.360 --> 01:14:52.440 This one is very strange.

01:14:52.440 --> 01:14:53.440 Nutty huh?

01:14:53.440 --> 01:14:54.480 It's a bit nutty.

01:14:54.480 --> 01:14:58.320 If you think you know what this week's noisy is, or you heard something cool, you can email

01:14:58.320 --> 01:15:01.800 me at wtn at theskepticsguide.org.

01:15:01.800 --> 01:15:02.800 Thank you, Jay.

New Noisy ()

[_short_vague_description_of_Noisy]

short_text_from_transcript

Dumbest Thing of the Week ()

• [link_URL TITLE]

Name That Logical Fallacy ()

• _Fallacy_Topic_Event_
• [link_URL TITLE]

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –

Questions/Emails/Corrections/Follow-ups ()

_consider_using_block_quotes_for_emails_read_aloud_in_this_segment_
with_reduced_spacing_for_long_chunks –

01:15:02.800 --> 01:15:03.800 All right.

01:15:03.800 --> 01:15:04.800 We got one email.

01:15:04.800 --> 01:15:06.400 It's actually one email question.

01:15:06.400 --> 01:15:07.400 There were several emails.

01:15:07.400 --> 01:15:08.400 Yeah.

01:15:08.400 --> 01:15:09.400 We did not get one.

01:15:09.400 --> 01:15:10.400 Yeah.

01:15:10.400 --> 01:15:15.040 But I mean, there were several emails about this topic.

01:15:15.040 --> 01:15:17.720 I'm just going to combine them into one bit of feedback.

01:15:17.720 --> 01:15:18.720 And I knew this was going to happen.

01:15:18.720 --> 01:15:20.280 I basically was setting people up for this.

01:15:20.280 --> 01:15:25.720 So whenever I talk about renewable energy, I get this feedback.

01:15:25.720 --> 01:15:32.800 I think it was, you know, last week before I mentioned that, you know, if you do simulations,

01:15:32.800 --> 01:15:41.200 do analyses, like how much intermittent renewable energy can we have on the grid at one time?

01:15:41.200 --> 01:15:45.360 And you know, because these are not on demand sources, we have no control over when the

01:15:45.360 --> 01:15:49.600 sun shines or when the wind blows, that there's a limit to how much of that the grid can take

01:15:49.600 --> 01:15:53.080 and still be able to balance supply and demand, right?

01:15:53.080 --> 01:15:57.940 Because you know, the electricity grid has to exactly balance supply and demand moment

01:15:57.940 --> 01:16:02.400 to moment, you know, second to second, minute to minute, hour to hour.

01:16:02.400 --> 01:16:06.400 And we do that by turning supply on and off.

01:16:06.400 --> 01:16:11.720 You can turn wind turbines off, but you can't make the wind blow if it's not blowing and

01:16:11.720 --> 01:16:13.520 you can't make the sun shine if it's not shining.

01:16:13.520 --> 01:16:16.520 So we got to take it when it's available.

01:16:16.520 --> 01:16:18.240 So how do we balance these things?

01:16:18.240 --> 01:16:24.200 We balance them in a couple of ways by having other sources of energy that are on demand,

01:16:24.200 --> 01:16:30.780 so-called dispatchable energy, by networking these over a large area so they balance out

01:16:30.780 --> 01:16:35.400 and by having overcapacity, you know, you have more than you need so that some, like

01:16:35.400 --> 01:16:36.900 the wind's always blowing somewhere, right?

01:16:36.900 --> 01:16:44.000 So that you're getting wind from someplace, but spread over a long enough area, it tends

01:16:44.000 --> 01:16:49.360 to, to average out, but that means that you need a lot more total capacity than the actual

01:16:49.360 --> 01:16:50.360 energy that you're producing.

01:16:50.360 --> 01:16:53.800 But of course, that's true of every source of energy.

01:16:53.800 --> 01:16:58.660 Every source of energy has a capacity factor and actually not bad for wind.

01:16:58.660 --> 01:17:01.880 It's really bad for solar, it's only like 22%.

01:17:01.880 --> 01:17:06.320 It's getting over 50% for wind, depending on where we put it in the bigger, you know,

01:17:06.320 --> 01:17:07.840 wind turbines are better.

01:17:07.840 --> 01:17:13.560 It's only in the 50 something percent for fossil fuels and nuclear is about 92%.

01:17:13.560 --> 01:17:14.560 That's the best.

01:17:14.560 --> 01:17:20.880 But in any case, I made the point that if you do simulations, you could, a grid could

01:17:20.880 --> 01:17:26.960 take maybe 30% intermittent sources before you start to get into trouble, meaning you

01:17:26.960 --> 01:17:33.860 can't, you know, effectively balance supply and demand or, you know, the costs tend to

01:17:33.860 --> 01:17:40.680 start shooting up, you know, in terms of trying to go beyond, you know, 30% penetration.

01:17:40.680 --> 01:17:44.280 And it always happens that people respond and say, Oh no, but this study showed that

01:17:44.280 --> 01:17:47.480 you can, or that analysis showed that you can, or this place has it.

01:17:47.480 --> 01:17:51.520 And you know, cause I get it, there are people who are very enthusiastic about wind and solar

01:17:51.520 --> 01:17:56.020 and they want to believe that we can have like a hundred percent wind and solar.

01:17:56.020 --> 01:17:58.140 But the, it's just not true.

01:17:58.140 --> 01:18:00.440 And the examples are always flawed, right?

01:18:00.440 --> 01:18:07.280 So one person, for example, said, yeah, but the UK has more than 30% wind and solar and

01:18:07.280 --> 01:18:12.240 they're doing just fine and they plan on going to 60% or 70%.

01:18:12.240 --> 01:18:16.860 But actually in the email itself, they gave the answer to why that's not a counterexample

01:18:16.860 --> 01:18:17.860 to what I was saying.

01:18:17.860 --> 01:18:24.120 Cause they say they just, they sell their excess electricity to Norway that has, that

01:18:24.120 --> 01:18:30.960 gets most of its energy from hydroelectric and they get extra energy from France, which

01:18:30.960 --> 01:18:32.920 gets most of its energy from nuclear.

01:18:32.920 --> 01:18:35.280 It's like, yeah, that's the point.

01:18:35.280 --> 01:18:38.680 The UK is not an isolated grid.

01:18:38.680 --> 01:18:44.400 It's you know, it has a specifically has an interconnection to someplace where it could

01:18:44.400 --> 01:18:49.380 sell its excess energy and to someplace else where it can get energy when it needs it.

01:18:49.380 --> 01:18:52.300 You have to consider that as a whole.

01:18:52.300 --> 01:18:59.920 So you know, the wind and solar may be 40% of the UK, but it's, it's not 40% of the UK,

01:18:59.920 --> 01:19:05.220 France and Norway, you know, that which is the actual grid we're talking about here.

01:19:05.220 --> 01:19:09.560 So if we're talking about, for example, the Eastern in the Eastern grid, right?

01:19:09.560 --> 01:19:14.580 So the, the United States basically has two big grids, the Eastern and connect and the

01:19:14.580 --> 01:19:16.960 Western interconnect.

01:19:16.960 --> 01:19:19.200 And then it has, Texas is like a smaller grid.

01:19:19.200 --> 01:19:23.900 Alaska is also a smaller grid and Quebec is also like its own grid.

01:19:23.900 --> 01:19:26.240 But otherwise we have two big grids.

01:19:26.240 --> 01:19:31.520 So we have to consider what the balance is on each of those grids, right?

01:19:31.520 --> 01:19:36.120 But the other thing is even if it's technically interconnected, you have to consider the capacity

01:19:36.120 --> 01:19:37.840 of that interconnection.

01:19:37.840 --> 01:19:46.040 So even though we technically could share electricity between Connecticut and Indiana,

01:19:46.040 --> 01:19:51.480 you know, we have to consider how much electricity can we send between those two locations and

01:19:51.480 --> 01:19:53.240 at what cost.

01:19:53.240 --> 01:20:00.280 So having more sharing in order to compensate for intermittent sources increases transmission

01:20:00.280 --> 01:20:06.320 costs, which is why even though wind and solar is getting super cheap, it doesn't necessarily

01:20:06.320 --> 01:20:11.000 decrease the cost of electricity when you add it to the grid.

01:20:11.000 --> 01:20:12.400 There's two reasons why that doesn't happen.

01:20:12.400 --> 01:20:16.280 One is because at least in the United States, they immediately charge their customer for

01:20:16.280 --> 01:20:17.520 the cost of adding it, right?

01:20:17.520 --> 01:20:19.140 That gets added onto your bill.

01:20:19.140 --> 01:20:21.340 And second, it increases transmission costs.

01:20:21.340 --> 01:20:23.840 So how do we solve that problem?

01:20:23.840 --> 01:20:27.620 You know, the big answer is you upgrade the grid and there are studies which show that

01:20:27.620 --> 01:20:32.320 when you invest in upgrading the grid, you get more than the money you invest back in

01:20:32.320 --> 01:20:37.680 reduced transmission costs and it increases your ability to add intermittent sources to

01:20:37.680 --> 01:20:38.680 the grid.

01:20:38.680 --> 01:20:42.720 So if you ask, how much can we add right now?

01:20:42.720 --> 01:20:45.360 That's where that 30% figure comes in.

01:20:45.360 --> 01:20:49.040 If you say, what could we add theoretically in the future?

01:20:49.040 --> 01:20:51.120 The answer is it depends.

01:20:51.120 --> 01:20:58.560 It depends really on two big things and one is how much money are we going to invest in

01:20:58.560 --> 01:21:00.220 upgrading the grid?

01:21:00.220 --> 01:21:02.980 So we need a more robust grid.

01:21:02.980 --> 01:21:09.600 We need a grid that is able to share electricity over a wider area and we need a smart grid

01:21:09.600 --> 01:21:13.600 that will balance loads second to second.

01:21:13.600 --> 01:21:17.520 The other big thing is, I'm sure you guys would guess, grid storage, right?

01:21:17.520 --> 01:21:22.180 The more grid storage you add, the more intermittent sources you can have.

01:21:22.180 --> 01:21:24.360 So that's the other type of feedback you get.

01:21:24.360 --> 01:21:26.040 People say, oh no, we can get to 70, 80.

01:21:26.040 --> 01:21:27.400 All you need is all this grid storage.

01:21:27.400 --> 01:21:28.880 Like, yeah, I know that.

01:21:28.880 --> 01:21:30.600 That wasn't my point.

01:21:30.600 --> 01:21:35.380 The point is we can't add it now because we don't have the grid storage now.

01:21:35.380 --> 01:21:41.000 And so these models which say we can get up to 70% wind and solar, they always include

01:21:41.000 --> 01:21:48.720 really optimistic projections about grid storage, right, and also grid upgrades in addition

01:21:48.720 --> 01:21:53.520 to realistic but still optimistic projections of wind and solar costs.

01:21:53.520 --> 01:21:57.100 I buy that those costs are going to continue to come down, although we don't know where

01:21:57.100 --> 01:22:04.360 they're going to peak in terms of, we can't assume that trends will continue inevitably.

01:22:04.360 --> 01:22:08.480 Like you pick the low hanging fruit and then the benefits tend to plateau at some point.

01:22:08.480 --> 01:22:16.080 But even if we assume very cheap wind and solar, you only get past that 30, maybe 40%,

01:22:16.080 --> 01:22:18.520 depending on which analysis you read.

01:22:18.520 --> 01:22:21.360 And again, I've tried to, I've read every one I could get my hands on, every one that

01:22:21.360 --> 01:22:23.440 I could find just to try to say, what is that number?

01:22:23.440 --> 01:22:27.400 What's the number of penetration of wind and solar?

01:22:27.400 --> 01:22:32.200 And there's a range of estimates based on a range of assumptions, but that 30 to 40%,

01:22:32.200 --> 01:22:33.800 that's basically the average.

01:22:33.800 --> 01:22:36.160 That's where it comes in.

01:22:36.160 --> 01:22:40.520 To get past that, there's always assumptions about grid storage and grid upgrades.

01:22:40.520 --> 01:22:41.760 And it's like, yes, I get that.

01:22:41.760 --> 01:22:47.200 That's why we need to invest in those two things so we can get past that 30%.

01:22:47.200 --> 01:22:54.760 Even then though, you're only going to get up to 40 to 60% unless you have ridiculously

01:22:54.760 --> 01:22:56.000 massive grid storage.

01:22:56.000 --> 01:23:00.000 And that's what I think a lot of people don't understand is that when you're talking about

01:23:00.000 --> 01:23:06.680 high levels of grid storage, you're talking about multiple orders of magnitude beyond

01:23:06.680 --> 01:23:13.240 what we can realistically add in the next five to 10 years.

01:23:13.240 --> 01:23:16.160 There's a lot of electricity going through the grid.

01:23:16.160 --> 01:23:23.320 And storing it for even a very short amount of time would just take massive grid storage.

01:23:23.320 --> 01:23:27.400 Massive grid storage is the kind of thing we should be thinking about as, we'll have

01:23:27.400 --> 01:23:31.320 that in 40 to 50 years, seriously.

01:23:31.320 --> 01:23:33.040 Not the next 20 years.

01:23:33.040 --> 01:23:40.600 The next 20 years, we are going to have incrementally increasing very modest amounts of grid storage.

01:23:40.600 --> 01:23:43.960 Unless there's a technological breakthrough, it's like, I can make batteries out of nothing.

01:23:43.960 --> 01:23:44.960 You know what I mean?

01:23:44.960 --> 01:23:47.960 Like the kind of things that people are researching, but that we're not mass producing at this

01:23:47.960 --> 01:23:49.160 point in time.

01:23:49.160 --> 01:23:52.600 And there's always things, we talk about grid storage like, oh yeah, they're making breakthroughs

01:23:52.600 --> 01:23:59.320 in more efficient compressed air grid storage and whatever salt, you know, melted salt grid

01:23:59.320 --> 01:24:00.320 storage, whatever.

01:24:00.320 --> 01:24:01.320 Yeah, those are all great.

01:24:01.320 --> 01:24:05.840 You know, and that will, that I'm counting that as adding incrementally to our grid storage.

01:24:05.840 --> 01:24:11.360 But you know, when you look at how much you would actually need to get to high penetrations

01:24:11.360 --> 01:24:13.680 of wind and solar, it's massive.

01:24:13.680 --> 01:24:16.480 It's like that's decades and decades away.

01:24:16.480 --> 01:24:20.160 So we have to be thinking about what's our energy mix going to be over the next 20 to

01:24:20.160 --> 01:24:23.920 30 years, and then what's it going to be after that?

01:24:23.920 --> 01:24:28.560 And if you, you can't have a solution that's, you know, 30 plus years away and say, that's

01:24:28.560 --> 01:24:34.520 our solution now, because by the time that comes in play, it's too late, right?

01:24:34.520 --> 01:24:37.800 It's your past 2050, all the bad stuff has happened.

01:24:37.800 --> 01:24:42.960 Obviously it could still get worse, but we will have blown past the two degree Celsius

01:24:42.960 --> 01:24:47.680 goal that we're trying to keep under, let alone the 1.5 one, you know.

01:24:47.680 --> 01:24:53.880 So for the next 20 years, 30% wind and solar, that's basically all we're going to get.

01:24:53.880 --> 01:24:58.200 And beyond that, it really becomes implausible.

01:24:58.200 --> 01:25:00.520 And so what's the rest going to be?

01:25:00.520 --> 01:25:01.700 That's really the only question.

01:25:01.700 --> 01:25:04.980 And it shouldn't be fossil fuel, right?

01:25:04.980 --> 01:25:07.620 So it's got to be something else.

01:25:07.620 --> 01:25:12.880 After 30 years, you know, maybe we'll have some, some game changing grid storage kicking

01:25:12.880 --> 01:25:16.680 in that'll be a game changer, but not in the next 20 to 30 years.

01:25:16.680 --> 01:25:17.680 Okay.

01:25:17.680 --> 01:25:18.680 But I'm happy to be wrong about that.

01:25:18.680 --> 01:25:23.200 But again, none of the references anybody sent me contradicted that they all had these

01:25:23.200 --> 01:25:27.920 other assumptions in there that were not correct, that don't apply to what I was saying.

Question_Email_Correction #2: _brief_description_ ()

[top]                        

Science or Fiction (1:25:27)

Item #1: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #2: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #3: _item_text_from_show_notes_ Item #4: (_item_text_from_show_notes_)

Answer	Item
Fiction
Science

Host	Result
Steve

Rogue	Guess

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Steve Explains Item #_n_

01:25:27.920 --> 01:25:35.360 All right, let's go on with science or fiction.

01:25:35.360 --> 01:25:44.840 It's time for science or fiction.

01:25:44.840 --> 01:25:49.720 Each week I come up with three science news items, four facts, two real and one fictitious.

01:25:49.720 --> 01:25:54.400 And then I challenge my panel of skeptics to tell me which one they think is the fake.

01:25:54.400 --> 01:25:56.200 We have a theme this week.

01:25:56.200 --> 01:26:00.480 It's kind of a fall theme, although it's a little bit late, but it's still, it's still

01:26:00.480 --> 01:26:03.080 a perfectly acceptable fall theme.

01:26:03.080 --> 01:26:05.080 The theme is apples.

01:26:05.080 --> 01:26:06.080 Apples.

01:26:06.080 --> 01:26:07.080 Yeah.

01:26:07.080 --> 01:26:10.760 Jay, how do you like them apples?

01:26:10.760 --> 01:26:13.760 Can't beat me to that.

01:26:13.760 --> 01:26:15.120 All right.

01:26:15.120 --> 01:26:17.280 Three things about apples.

01:26:17.280 --> 01:26:18.280 Two real, one fake.

01:26:18.280 --> 01:26:19.280 Here we go.

01:26:19.280 --> 01:26:24.720 Item number one, evolutionarily, apples have been around for about 12 million years, but

01:26:24.720 --> 01:26:34.040 the oldest archeological evidence of apples being used as food goes back to 3160 BCE.

01:26:34.040 --> 01:26:40.860 Item number two, John Chapman, more famously known as Johnny Appleseed, promoted the process

01:26:40.860 --> 01:26:47.520 of hybridizing apple cultivars and his basic process is still used today to produce the

01:26:47.520 --> 01:26:50.960 most commercial apple trees from seeds.

01:26:50.960 --> 01:26:55.960 Item number three, even though the US is the second most apple producing country in the

01:26:55.960 --> 01:27:01.480 world after China, only crab apples are native to North America.

01:27:01.480 --> 01:27:06.080 Edible apples were imported from Europe in the late 16th century.

01:27:06.080 --> 01:27:10.920 Asia, as our guest, and since you've played this twice before, you get to go first this

01:27:10.920 --> 01:27:11.920 week.

01:27:11.920 --> 01:27:12.920 Yeah.

01:27:12.920 --> 01:27:13.920 Do you know what your history is?

01:27:13.920 --> 01:27:17.840 I mean, what your score is for your previous Science for Fiction?

01:27:17.840 --> 01:27:18.840 Your record?

01:27:18.840 --> 01:27:20.880 I think my record is bad.

01:27:20.880 --> 01:27:24.920 Well, you have an opportunity to turn around.

01:27:24.920 --> 01:27:27.440 Show us what you know about apples.

01:27:27.440 --> 01:27:31.280 I believe the crab apples being native to North America is true.

01:27:31.280 --> 01:27:34.120 So I'm going to go with that fact.

01:27:34.120 --> 01:27:35.120 Let's find the fiction.

01:27:35.120 --> 01:27:41.680 We're going to go with an educated guess.

01:27:41.680 --> 01:27:44.880 I'm going to go with number one is the fiction.

01:27:44.880 --> 01:27:46.880 I'm probably going to regret that later.

01:27:46.880 --> 01:27:47.880 Yeah.

01:27:47.880 --> 01:27:51.400 The 12 million years old, but only 3160 BC.

01:27:51.400 --> 01:27:52.400 Okay.

01:27:52.400 --> 01:27:54.120 Jay, you seem to want to talk about apples.

01:27:54.120 --> 01:27:55.800 You can go next.

01:27:55.800 --> 01:27:56.800 Apples.

01:27:56.800 --> 01:28:02.840 The first one about apples, you know, 12 million years, but they have archaeological evidence

01:28:02.840 --> 01:28:03.840 3160 BC.

01:28:03.840 --> 01:28:07.880 I mean, I see no reason why that can't be true.

01:28:07.880 --> 01:28:12.760 I mean, whatever apples came from had been around for millions of years, just like tons

01:28:12.760 --> 01:28:15.580 of other plants and things like that.

01:28:15.580 --> 01:28:18.080 So I think that's probably fine.

01:28:18.080 --> 01:28:20.080 Johnny Chapman Appleseed.

01:28:20.080 --> 01:28:21.820 This guy, he's a bastard.

01:28:21.820 --> 01:28:23.920 Never trust Johnny Appleseed, Steve, I'm telling you.

01:28:23.920 --> 01:28:24.920 I don't know.

01:28:24.920 --> 01:28:28.680 So this guy was walking around, he's dropping seeds, you know, he's trying to...

01:28:28.680 --> 01:28:29.680 Here we go.

01:28:29.680 --> 01:28:32.600 We'll get 10,000 corrections probably on that next week.

01:28:32.600 --> 01:28:34.600 He's spitting them out as he's eating them.

01:28:34.600 --> 01:28:37.720 And then, you know, mixes a couple of these plants together.

01:28:37.720 --> 01:28:39.560 Next thing you know, you got Fuji apples, right?

01:28:39.560 --> 01:28:40.560 Is that what we're saying?

01:28:40.560 --> 01:28:41.560 Steve?

01:28:41.560 --> 01:28:42.560 Hello?

01:28:42.560 --> 01:28:43.560 Yeah.

01:28:43.560 --> 01:28:44.560 Self explain.

01:28:44.560 --> 01:28:45.560 He hears everything you're saying.

01:28:45.560 --> 01:28:46.560 I don't remember.

01:28:46.560 --> 01:28:49.520 I remember reading about this guy when I was young.

01:28:49.520 --> 01:28:51.120 I don't remember what he did.

01:28:51.120 --> 01:28:52.520 I'm pretty sure he's real.

01:28:52.520 --> 01:28:53.520 Let's start with that.

01:28:53.520 --> 01:28:57.720 But I don't know if he had anything to do with the hybridization of apples.

01:28:57.720 --> 01:28:58.860 So I'm going to put that one on hold.

01:28:58.860 --> 01:29:03.320 The third one, even though the US is the second most apple producing country in the world

01:29:03.320 --> 01:29:07.760 after China, only crab apples are native to North America.

01:29:07.760 --> 01:29:08.760 Damn.

01:29:08.760 --> 01:29:10.880 Crab apples in America, in the Americas.

01:29:10.880 --> 01:29:12.560 I mean, it makes sense.

01:29:12.560 --> 01:29:16.820 It makes sense that, you know, but then you got to talk about Native Americans and what

01:29:16.820 --> 01:29:17.880 were they doing?

01:29:17.880 --> 01:29:22.320 You know, if they were going to be messing around with any fruits, it was probably apples.

01:29:22.320 --> 01:29:23.320 Damn you, Steve.

01:29:23.320 --> 01:29:24.320 This is a tough one.

01:29:24.320 --> 01:29:26.920 I'm going to say that the Johnny Appleseed one is the fiction.

01:29:26.920 --> 01:29:27.920 Okay, Kara.

01:29:27.920 --> 01:29:31.040 I didn't even know Johnny Appleseed was a real person.

01:29:31.040 --> 01:29:34.200 I thought he was, that was like a nursery rhyme or something.

01:29:34.200 --> 01:29:35.200 Like Peter Cottontail.

01:29:35.200 --> 01:29:36.200 That's so terrible.

01:29:36.200 --> 01:29:41.200 Like he doesn't sound real.

01:29:41.200 --> 01:29:42.560 Oh my gosh.

01:29:42.560 --> 01:29:44.520 But clearly that's not his real name.

01:29:44.520 --> 01:29:46.000 His real name was John Chapman.

01:29:46.000 --> 01:29:50.040 People called him Johnny Appleseed probably because he did something with apple seeds.

01:29:50.040 --> 01:29:55.360 So that sounds, again, cromulent.

01:29:55.360 --> 01:29:58.520 There's a lot of cromulants in this episode.

01:29:58.520 --> 01:30:01.560 But did he hybridize different cultivars?

01:30:01.560 --> 01:30:07.120 And is his basic process still used today to produce trees from seeds?

01:30:07.120 --> 01:30:08.960 I don't know.

01:30:08.960 --> 01:30:12.100 When you say, Steve, and you probably can't answer this because I'm going like fourth,

01:30:12.100 --> 01:30:16.160 but when you say evolutionarily, apples have been around for about 12 million years, do

01:30:16.160 --> 01:30:17.420 you mean like apple?

01:30:17.420 --> 01:30:19.800 You don't mean apples as we know them today, I'm assuming.

01:30:19.800 --> 01:30:20.800 You mean some lineage.

01:30:20.800 --> 01:30:26.080 Not the species, not the specific varieties that we know today, but they were apples.

01:30:26.080 --> 01:30:27.080 They were called that.

01:30:27.080 --> 01:30:28.080 You know what I mean?

01:30:28.080 --> 01:30:30.000 There was something different enough about them to make them apple-y.

01:30:30.000 --> 01:30:31.000 Yeah.

01:30:31.000 --> 01:30:33.040 They were technically apples.

01:30:33.040 --> 01:30:34.040 Okay.

01:30:34.040 --> 01:30:35.040 All right.

01:30:35.040 --> 01:30:38.920 So that could be the case, but it could also be that something that was like the predecessor

01:30:38.920 --> 01:30:41.080 of the apple is that old.

01:30:41.080 --> 01:30:44.080 And you know, oldest archaeological evidence is super, super old.

01:30:44.080 --> 01:30:47.520 That would make sense if they're naturally occurring.

01:30:47.520 --> 01:30:52.800 And of course, finding archaeological evidence of something that does not preserve very well

01:30:52.800 --> 01:30:54.400 is probably really hard to do.

01:30:54.400 --> 01:30:58.200 So yeah, there could be something to that.

01:30:58.200 --> 01:31:00.920 And then are crab apples apples?

01:31:00.920 --> 01:31:02.400 Yeah, they're apples.

01:31:02.400 --> 01:31:03.400 Oh, okay.

01:31:03.400 --> 01:31:04.400 They're not crabs.

01:31:04.400 --> 01:31:05.560 So I buy it.

01:31:05.560 --> 01:31:12.360 I buy that crab apples are native, but regular apples aren't native to North America.

01:31:12.360 --> 01:31:16.120 There's a lot of things that we think of as being like quintessentially American, like

01:31:16.120 --> 01:31:19.520 American as apple pie that we imported from somewhere else.

01:31:19.520 --> 01:31:24.840 So I don't know, I feel like the Johnny Appleseed one has the most like myth associated with

01:31:24.840 --> 01:31:25.840 it.

01:31:25.840 --> 01:31:29.120 Also, I didn't know he was real until like right now, so I'm going to say that's the

01:31:29.120 --> 01:31:30.120 fiction.

01:31:30.120 --> 01:31:31.120 Okay, Bob.

01:31:31.120 --> 01:31:33.840 I mean, nothing would surprise me here.

01:31:33.840 --> 01:31:42.200 I want Johnny Appleseed to be true, so I'm going to say it's fiction, so I'll be happy

01:31:42.200 --> 01:31:43.200 either way.

01:31:43.200 --> 01:31:44.200 That's it?

01:31:44.200 --> 01:31:45.200 All right.

01:31:45.200 --> 01:31:46.200 Yeah, definitely.

01:31:46.200 --> 01:31:47.200 Yeah.

01:31:47.200 --> 01:31:52.360 Okay, I'll get to the core of it here and say that, yeah, I think the Johnny Appleseed

01:31:52.360 --> 01:31:54.960 one, something's wrong there.

01:31:54.960 --> 01:32:00.840 Obviously, John Chapman was a person, but did he really hybridize apple cultivars?

01:32:00.840 --> 01:32:02.840 I don't even know.

01:32:02.840 --> 01:32:03.840 Really?

01:32:03.840 --> 01:32:10.040 I don't know that part of the legend of him, not that I know much about it, but I don't

01:32:10.040 --> 01:32:11.040 know.

01:32:11.040 --> 01:32:12.040 That doesn't sound right.

01:32:12.040 --> 01:32:17.280 I mean, Kara said that that has, I think, the most wiggle room in it for it to be fiction,

01:32:17.280 --> 01:32:19.120 so I'll say that's fiction.

01:32:19.120 --> 01:32:22.320 Okay, so you all agree with the third one, so we'll start there.

01:32:22.320 --> 01:32:27.120 Even though the US is the second to most apple producing country in the world after China,

01:32:27.120 --> 01:32:29.900 only crab apples are native to North America.

01:32:29.900 --> 01:32:34.200 Edible apples were imported from Europe in the late 16th century.

01:32:34.200 --> 01:32:40.480 You guys all think this one is science, so were apples in the Americas prior to the 16th

01:32:40.480 --> 01:32:41.480 century?

01:32:41.480 --> 01:32:45.120 And this one is science.

01:32:45.120 --> 01:32:46.120 This is science.

01:32:46.120 --> 01:32:51.160 Yeah, so recent introduction to North America, but yeah, we only had, only crab apples are

01:32:51.160 --> 01:32:53.200 native to North America.

01:32:53.200 --> 01:33:00.320 What do you think is the most popular variety of apple in the world?

01:33:00.320 --> 01:33:03.440 In the world?

01:33:03.440 --> 01:33:05.280 The green apple?

01:33:05.280 --> 01:33:07.040 Green is a three.

01:33:07.040 --> 01:33:08.040 Granny Smith is three.

01:33:08.040 --> 01:33:09.040 Okay.

01:33:09.040 --> 01:33:10.040 Number three.

01:33:10.040 --> 01:33:11.040 Oh, not a red delicious.

01:33:11.040 --> 01:33:12.040 And number one.

01:33:12.040 --> 01:33:13.040 What's it called?

01:33:13.040 --> 01:33:14.040 Fiji?

01:33:14.040 --> 01:33:15.040 Fuji?

01:33:15.040 --> 01:33:16.040 It's called the...

01:33:16.040 --> 01:33:17.040 Fuji's four.

01:33:17.040 --> 01:33:18.040 Fuji's four, okay.

01:33:18.040 --> 01:33:20.240 Is it the Macintosh 2C?

01:33:20.240 --> 01:33:21.240 Crab apples.

01:33:21.240 --> 01:33:24.080 Steve, is it the Honeycrisp?

01:33:24.080 --> 01:33:25.080 That's five.

01:33:25.080 --> 01:33:27.720 Oh, is it red or is it green?

01:33:27.720 --> 01:33:30.760 You guys would be doing good if you were on like a Family Feud or something.

01:33:30.760 --> 01:33:31.760 Yeah, seriously.

01:33:31.760 --> 01:33:32.760 Good answer.

01:33:32.760 --> 01:33:33.760 Good answer.

01:33:33.760 --> 01:33:34.760 But then the other team would steal it with the very first one.

01:33:34.760 --> 01:33:35.760 They would.

01:33:35.760 --> 01:33:36.760 They would steal it and they would say...

01:33:36.760 --> 01:33:37.760 Oh, there's Macintosh.

01:33:37.760 --> 01:33:38.760 There's Fuji.

01:33:38.760 --> 01:33:39.760 There's Pinkly.

01:33:39.760 --> 01:33:40.760 We didn't say Macintosh yet.

01:33:40.760 --> 01:33:41.760 We didn't say Macintosh is six.

01:33:41.760 --> 01:33:42.760 No.

01:33:42.760 --> 01:33:43.760 The Gala apple.

01:33:43.760 --> 01:33:44.760 The Gala.

01:33:44.760 --> 01:33:45.760 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

01:33:45.760 --> 01:33:46.760 Those are good.

01:33:46.760 --> 01:33:47.760 Those are yummy.

01:33:47.760 --> 01:33:48.760 Is it Gala or Gala?

01:33:48.760 --> 01:33:49.760 I don't know.

01:33:49.760 --> 01:33:50.760 I don't know.

01:33:50.760 --> 01:33:51.760 Those are sweet and sour.

01:33:51.760 --> 01:33:52.760 That's number one.

01:33:52.760 --> 01:33:53.760 Yeah.

01:33:53.760 --> 01:33:54.760 Of those, my favorite is Honeycrisp.

01:33:54.760 --> 01:33:55.760 Yeah.

01:33:55.760 --> 01:33:56.760 Honeycrisp tends to be the...

01:33:56.760 --> 01:34:01.280 Oh, there's a local apple orchard that does the pick your own thing.

01:34:01.280 --> 01:34:04.440 My favorite one to eat off the tree is the Goldencrisp.

01:34:04.440 --> 01:34:10.680 It's basically a yellow apple, a golden apple that they hybrid with the Honeycrisp.

01:34:10.680 --> 01:34:11.680 It is amazing.

01:34:11.680 --> 01:34:15.880 Steve, when you eat that golden apple, does it heal up your hit points?

01:34:15.880 --> 01:34:16.880 It does.

01:34:16.880 --> 01:34:17.880 Totally.

01:34:17.880 --> 01:34:18.880 Yeah.

01:34:18.880 --> 01:34:21.880 Gives you a morale bonus.

01:34:21.880 --> 01:34:22.880 All right.

01:34:22.880 --> 01:34:23.880 Let's go back to number one.

01:34:23.880 --> 01:34:28.000 Evolutionarily, apples have been around for about 12 million years, but the oldest archeological

01:34:28.000 --> 01:34:32.280 evidence of apples being used as food goes back to 3160 BCE.

01:34:32.280 --> 01:34:34.640 Asia, you think this one is the fiction.

01:34:34.640 --> 01:34:37.040 All the rogues think this one is the science.

01:34:37.040 --> 01:34:38.840 So did Asia beat the rogues?

01:34:38.840 --> 01:34:41.040 This might be the fiction.

01:34:41.040 --> 01:34:43.080 This one is...

01:34:43.080 --> 01:34:44.080 This is science.

01:34:44.080 --> 01:34:45.080 Sorry, Asia.

01:34:45.080 --> 01:34:46.080 12 million.

01:34:46.080 --> 01:34:47.080 That's a long time.

01:34:47.080 --> 01:34:50.680 12 million is a long time, and they were just wild apples, and there are wild apples still

01:34:50.680 --> 01:34:51.680 in the world.

01:34:51.680 --> 01:34:52.680 I mean, you could just go and...

01:34:52.680 --> 01:34:53.680 You can eat them.

01:34:53.680 --> 01:35:01.280 They're actually edible wild apples, but the apple was very easy to cultivate, which means

01:35:01.280 --> 01:35:07.040 that John Chapman, Johnny Appleseed, promoted the process of hybridizing apple cultivars,

01:35:07.040 --> 01:35:10.560 and his basic process is still used today to produce most commercial apple trees from

01:35:10.560 --> 01:35:11.560 seeds.

01:35:11.560 --> 01:35:19.200 So John Chapman was a real person, Cara, who was colloquially called Johnny Appleseed because

01:35:19.200 --> 01:35:24.680 he did promote a process of hybridizing apple cultivars from seeds, right?

01:35:24.680 --> 01:35:27.860 So he was all about producing apple seeds.

01:35:27.860 --> 01:35:36.120 The problem is his process did not work, and we don't use it today for a very good scientific

01:35:36.120 --> 01:35:37.120 reason.

01:35:37.120 --> 01:35:38.120 Because he was wrong.

01:35:38.120 --> 01:35:39.120 And the reason...

01:35:39.120 --> 01:35:40.480 Does anybody know this reason?

01:35:40.480 --> 01:35:42.600 It has to be a genetic reason.

01:35:42.600 --> 01:35:45.080 Yeah, it is a genetic reason.

01:35:45.080 --> 01:35:46.080 Good.

01:35:46.080 --> 01:35:50.080 Do any of you grow apple trees in your backyard?

01:35:50.080 --> 01:35:51.080 I do not.

01:35:51.080 --> 01:35:52.080 No.

01:35:52.080 --> 01:35:55.280 I do, and one of the things you learn when you plant apple trees is that if you want

01:35:55.280 --> 01:35:58.320 your apple trees to actually produce apples...

01:35:58.320 --> 01:36:00.040 You need something to pollinate them.

01:36:00.040 --> 01:36:03.280 You need another kind of apple tree to pollinate them.

01:36:03.280 --> 01:36:04.280 What?

01:36:04.280 --> 01:36:06.880 You need different cultivars that are complementary.

01:36:06.880 --> 01:36:12.320 I mean, they'll still produce apples, they just won't be big or good, or a lot of them.

01:36:12.320 --> 01:36:13.920 What the hell, man?

01:36:13.920 --> 01:36:17.720 Because apples are extreme heterozygotes.

01:36:17.720 --> 01:36:19.320 They're extreme heterozygotes.

01:36:19.320 --> 01:36:26.260 What that means is that when you produce an apple from a seed, it does not produce the

01:36:26.260 --> 01:36:29.240 same cultivar that you got the seed from.

01:36:29.240 --> 01:36:30.240 Gotcha.

01:36:30.240 --> 01:36:31.800 So it's got all this recessive stuff popping out.

01:36:31.800 --> 01:36:32.800 Yeah, yeah.

01:36:32.800 --> 01:36:37.240 So you cannot produce a stable cultivar from seeds.

01:36:37.240 --> 01:36:38.240 That sucks.

01:36:38.240 --> 01:36:39.240 Clone it?

01:36:39.240 --> 01:36:40.240 You have to clone it.

01:36:40.240 --> 01:36:43.760 So if you buy an apple tree, those are graftings.

01:36:43.760 --> 01:36:50.380 They take the honeycrisp apple tree, and then you have to just take clippings from that

01:36:50.380 --> 01:36:56.800 and graft it onto rootstock, and then you sell those trees to orchards or people who

01:36:56.800 --> 01:36:57.800 want to plant them.

01:36:57.800 --> 01:37:02.320 By the way, isn't that faster and cheaper anyway than growing from seed?

01:37:02.320 --> 01:37:04.160 Well, there are other advantages.

01:37:04.160 --> 01:37:08.280 The other things you do is you graft them onto dwarf trees so that you don't have to

01:37:08.280 --> 01:37:11.800 climb up these 30-, 40-, 50-foot trees to pick your apples.

01:37:11.800 --> 01:37:12.800 Oh, nice.

01:37:12.800 --> 01:37:13.800 Holy crap.

01:37:13.800 --> 01:37:14.800 So you put them on dwarf trees.

01:37:14.800 --> 01:37:18.360 You put them on trees that are going to be really productive.

01:37:18.360 --> 01:37:23.320 So yeah, absolutely, it's a better technique for those reasons as well.

01:37:23.320 --> 01:37:27.520 But also, if you want a specific cultivar, it's your only option.

01:37:27.520 --> 01:37:31.120 You cannot get a reliable result from a seed.

01:37:31.120 --> 01:37:32.120 It doesn't work.

01:37:32.120 --> 01:37:34.320 Johnny Appleseed totally failed.

01:37:34.320 --> 01:37:39.360 So why was he so, like, is it just because we didn't know all this other stuff?

01:37:39.360 --> 01:37:41.160 He really was pushing this.

01:37:41.160 --> 01:37:46.760 Even at the time, even at his time, we knew this, but he was promoting, like, no, we need

01:37:46.760 --> 01:37:52.440 to be planting apples from seeds, and he really tried to sell it, and he went out west and

01:37:52.440 --> 01:37:57.120 planted seeds everywhere, and he set up an institute to promote the whole idea of growing

01:37:57.120 --> 01:37:59.560 apples from seeds, and it didn't work.

01:37:59.560 --> 01:38:01.120 He never got it to work.

01:38:01.120 --> 01:38:02.120 Yes.

01:38:02.120 --> 01:38:03.120 And he never abandoned it?

01:38:03.120 --> 01:38:04.120 No, I guess not.

01:38:04.120 --> 01:38:05.120 I don't know.

01:38:05.120 --> 01:38:06.120 Oh, he's a con artist then.

01:38:06.120 --> 01:38:08.240 Or he had a lot of motivated reasoning.

01:38:08.240 --> 01:38:10.240 Yeah, a ton of it.

01:38:10.240 --> 01:38:11.240 I don't know.

01:38:11.240 --> 01:38:12.240 It's going to work, damn it.

01:38:12.240 --> 01:38:16.040 Yeah, a late-life conversion or whatever, but from what I was reading, it's like, nope,

01:38:16.040 --> 01:38:21.600 he really pushed the whole apples from seeds thing, and it didn't work.

01:38:21.600 --> 01:38:22.880 It never worked.

01:38:22.880 --> 01:38:23.880 That bastard.

01:38:23.880 --> 01:38:27.600 And we don't do that because it's not a good idea.

01:38:27.600 --> 01:38:28.600 You know what?

01:38:28.600 --> 01:38:31.320 How many apple seed is dead to me?

01:38:31.320 --> 01:38:36.760 It's for the same reason that apples don't do well when they self-pollinate.

01:38:36.760 --> 01:38:40.560 If you cross-pollinate with other varieties, they do much better.

01:38:40.560 --> 01:38:44.920 And I experienced that firsthand, because I had one apple tree in my backyard.

01:38:44.920 --> 01:38:50.400 The tree is big, healthy, beautiful, and produced crap, these small few apples.

01:38:50.400 --> 01:38:53.280 Then I planted, and I read about it, and I'm like, oh, I've got to plant another freaking

01:38:53.280 --> 01:38:54.280 apple tree.

01:38:54.280 --> 01:38:59.000 I planted another apple tree next to it of a different variety, and I make sure I got

01:38:59.000 --> 01:39:04.720 a good match with the original, and it had a dramatic effect on my apple tree production.

01:39:04.720 --> 01:39:06.000 It had a dramatic effect.

01:39:06.000 --> 01:39:09.160 I produce hundreds of big apples now.

01:39:09.160 --> 01:39:10.160 What the hell?

01:39:10.160 --> 01:39:12.400 What selective pressures would do that?

01:39:12.400 --> 01:39:14.080 I don't know that it was a selective pressure.

01:39:14.080 --> 01:39:18.000 First of all, it doesn't really matter to the apple.

01:39:18.000 --> 01:39:19.760 It still works for the apple.

01:39:19.760 --> 01:39:22.760 Animals will still eat it and spread the seeds.

01:39:22.760 --> 01:39:25.760 But fewer apples means fewer chances of spreading your seeds.

01:39:25.760 --> 01:39:26.760 No, but the thing is-

01:39:26.760 --> 01:39:28.400 Is it fewer or just lower quality?

01:39:28.400 --> 01:39:29.680 That's an artificial thing, Bob.

01:39:29.680 --> 01:39:37.600 It's because I have this cultivar that was selected to be a clone.

01:39:37.600 --> 01:39:43.360 Now I have a tree that's producing basically clones, and that's why it doesn't work well.

01:39:43.360 --> 01:39:47.760 But a wild apple tree would already have more variation built in, so it would be fine.

01:39:47.760 --> 01:39:50.880 And it would probably also be not growing alone.

01:39:50.880 --> 01:39:52.320 Yeah, right.

01:39:52.320 --> 01:39:54.920 Like a wild apple tree would be growing with other wild apple trees.

01:39:54.920 --> 01:39:55.920 Anyway, it doesn't matter.

01:39:55.920 --> 01:40:01.320 Johnny Appleseed doesn't give a crap if he is in a position to give anything, because

01:40:01.320 --> 01:40:04.920 no one's going to be talking about us in 150 years.

01:40:04.920 --> 01:40:05.920 He's a pure seedoscientist.

01:40:05.920 --> 01:40:06.920 Nice.

01:40:06.920 --> 01:40:07.920 Nice.

01:40:07.920 --> 01:40:16.400 It says here online that the only surviving tree he planted is on the farm in Richards

01:40:16.400 --> 01:40:18.400 in Phyllis, Allegro, Nova, Ohio.

01:40:18.400 --> 01:40:19.400 Wow.

01:40:19.400 --> 01:40:20.400 Just one.

01:40:20.400 --> 01:40:21.400 Only one.

01:40:21.400 --> 01:40:22.400 Yeah.

01:40:22.400 --> 01:40:23.400 Every tree he planted.

01:40:23.400 --> 01:40:24.400 Yeah.

01:40:24.400 --> 01:40:25.400 I mean, he's the guy with the pot on his head, right?

01:40:25.400 --> 01:40:26.400 I don't know why he wore a pot on his head.

01:40:26.400 --> 01:40:27.400 See, this is why I thought he was just in children's books.

01:40:27.400 --> 01:40:28.400 Come on, you guys.

01:40:28.400 --> 01:40:33.400 I will never look at him the same way again.

01:40:33.400 --> 01:40:40.400 But yeah, but he was a serious apple scientist who just was wrong.

01:40:40.400 --> 01:40:41.400 It's okay.

01:40:41.400 --> 01:40:42.400 It's okay to be wrong.

01:40:42.400 --> 01:40:43.400 Okay.

Skeptical Quote of the Week ()

TEXT
– AUTHOR (YYYY-YYYY), _short_description_

01:40:43.400 --> 01:40:44.400 Evan, give us a quote.

01:40:44.400 --> 01:40:48.960 Many people seem to confuse cynicism with skepticism and believe that critical thinking

01:40:48.960 --> 01:40:52.480 results in a negative attitude about life.

01:40:52.480 --> 01:40:59.440 However, this opinion rests on a number of mistaken assumptions about the nature of skepticism.

01:40:59.440 --> 01:41:03.600 Skeptics must correct these misconceptions if they hope for the wider application of

01:41:03.600 --> 01:41:05.440 critical thinking.

01:41:05.440 --> 01:41:11.840 That was written by Phil Mole, who is a columnist at Skeptical Inquirer Magazine, among other

01:41:11.840 --> 01:41:14.400 skeptical magazines out there.

01:41:14.400 --> 01:41:17.160 This is back from 2002, 20 years old.

01:41:17.160 --> 01:41:18.160 20 years old.

01:41:18.160 --> 01:41:19.160 20 years ago.

01:41:19.160 --> 01:41:20.160 Wow.

01:41:20.160 --> 01:41:21.160 Yeah.

01:41:21.160 --> 01:41:25.280 I mean, he's correct, but it's one thing to say, yeah, we should do this.

01:41:25.280 --> 01:41:27.940 We should correct that misconception.

01:41:27.940 --> 01:41:29.160 Here we are 20 years later.

01:41:29.160 --> 01:41:31.160 I don't know that we figured out a way to do that.

01:41:31.160 --> 01:41:32.160 Yeah.

01:41:32.160 --> 01:41:33.160 You know?

01:41:33.160 --> 01:41:34.160 Yeah.

01:41:34.160 --> 01:41:35.160 It's easier said than done.

01:41:35.160 --> 01:41:36.160 It's like, yeah, somebody should do that.

01:41:36.160 --> 01:41:37.160 Yeah.

01:41:37.160 --> 01:41:38.160 Yeah, it's easier said than done.

01:41:38.160 --> 01:41:39.160 Yeah.

01:41:39.160 --> 01:41:44.360 And actually, it's arguably worse because since then, the deniers have hijacked the

01:41:44.360 --> 01:41:47.840 word skeptic in a very negative way.

01:41:47.840 --> 01:41:53.080 So it's still, unfortunately, a brand with a lot of baggage.

01:41:53.080 --> 01:41:54.080 But it's ours.

01:41:54.080 --> 01:41:55.080 Damn it.

01:41:55.080 --> 01:41:56.080 Yeah.

01:41:56.080 --> 01:41:57.080 And we'll keep working at it forever.

01:41:57.080 --> 01:41:58.080 Right.

01:41:58.080 --> 01:41:59.080 Or we'll switch over to something else like the brights.

01:41:59.080 --> 01:42:00.080 That will work out.

01:42:00.080 --> 01:42:01.080 Oh, God.

01:42:01.080 --> 01:42:03.120 I thought we said we'd never mention that again.

01:42:03.120 --> 01:42:04.120 Yeah.

01:42:04.120 --> 01:42:05.120 Yeah.

01:42:05.120 --> 01:42:06.120 Oh, well.

Signoff (1:42:06)

01:42:06.120 --> 01:42:07.120 Have we fully told that story?

01:42:07.120 --> 01:42:08.120 Have we?

01:42:08.120 --> 01:42:09.120 Yeah.

01:42:09.120 --> 01:42:10.120 It's a symptom of the same problem.

01:42:10.120 --> 01:42:13.240 That's why they were trying to come up with a different term because it's like, we need

01:42:13.240 --> 01:42:15.120 a term that doesn't have the baggage.

01:42:15.120 --> 01:42:18.120 And we'll come up with one that has different, worse baggage.

01:42:18.120 --> 01:42:19.120 Oh, gosh.

01:42:19.120 --> 01:42:22.120 It's pretentious and annoying.

01:42:22.120 --> 01:42:24.520 Asia, thanks for joining us again.

01:42:24.520 --> 01:42:25.520 Yeah.

01:42:25.520 --> 01:42:26.520 It was a lot of fun to have you on the show.

01:42:26.520 --> 01:42:27.520 Thank you, Asia.

01:42:27.520 --> 01:42:28.520 Thanks for having me.

01:42:28.520 --> 01:42:30.040 And thank you all for joining me this week.

01:42:30.040 --> 01:42:31.040 Thanks, Dr.

01:42:31.040 --> 01:42:32.040 Well, thank you, Steve.

01:42:32.040 --> 01:42:33.040 All righty, then.

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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