SGUTranscripts - User contributions [en]

5X5 Episode 66

2013-02-26T09:51:30Z

Mark Wade: Emphasize single word

== Plausibility in Science ==
{{5x5intro}}

S: This is the SGU 5X5 and tonight we're talking about plausibility in science. Science is a cumulative effort, which means that all the things that we come up with in science, because it's describing the same reality, the same universe, must agree internally, must agree with itself, therefore as we build an ever more sophisticated model of how the universe works we can use that model, those ideas that have panned out, in order to test the plausibility of any new ideas in science.

?: And it gives us a starting point or, as it were, a point where we can go ahead and begin new sets of experiments based on the principles of plausibility so that we can avoid having to do the otherwise limitless number of experiments that would otherwise be required. It gives us a place to start.

?: How do you determine prior plausibility then? One way is to look at the best, strongest evidence for a given topic. Is the new claim in line with that evidence? If it is then prior plausibility is high. The threshold of evidence is therefore lower for this claim even though it still may be incorrect. Does the new claim ''disagree'' with the current accepted body of evidence? Prior plausibility is then lower and the old axiom kicks in: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

S: And what that means practically is that any evidence for the new claim has to be at least as great as all of the previous evidence that says that it shouldn't be true or that it's highly implausible. So you're still comparing evidence to evidence at the end of the day.

?: A really good example of applying the idea of plausibility would be if you think about homeopathy. Homeopathy, as many of you already know, is the belief that by diluting something in water enough that you can get some type of medicinal effect out of it. There is nothing in science today that we would consider homeopathy to be plausible. There's no way that we can see so far with our current science to prove homeopathy or even give it a mechanism for it to work with the way that it's described.

S: That's right, so therefore we would say that homeopathy is an extraordinary claim. Water, that doesn't have any active ingredient left in it, can not have a complex chemical action. For example, homeopaths would try to rescue the plausibility of homeopathy would say well the water retains the memory of what was diluted in it but that's just replacing one magic for another because there's no way, there's no mechanism for that, for the water to have quote-unquote memory or to retain it as it gets put onto a sugar pill and then eaten and digested and then absorbed into the bloodstream and then what this water is still holding together its memory even enough to have a physiological effect? It's so implausible that from a practical point of view we could say that the probability that homeopathy can work is.. it's as close to zero as we can have in science.

R: Of course though, it's important to keep in mind that plausibility or implausibility in and of themselves is not enough to debunk or confirm an idea. It's just a sniff-test to kind of give you the heads up that maybe something needs to be investigated more.

S: That's right, so like again with homeopathy we would need a mountain of evidence that it worked and it would have to be a very clear effect, reproducible, statistically significant and large physiological effect that nobody could doubt that there was some effect happening. Then we would go back and say alright there was obviously something wrong with our plausibility argument so there's some new effect in nature that we haven't discovered before. That's fine, as long as the evidence for a new effect or y'know rewriting the physics or the chemistry textbooks is equal to the evidence that says it shouldn't be possible in the first place. So plausibility plays an absolutely essential role in science. Without consideration of plausibility it's as if we're starting from square one with every new thought or idea that people come up with and that goes against the cumulative nature of science.

{{5x5outro}}

{{5X5 Navigation}}

Template:5X5 episode list

2013-02-26T08:04:28Z

Mark Wade: Update ep. 66 status

<noinclude>This template is used to display the list of 5X5 episodes on the [[Main Page]] and the [[5X5 Episodes]] page. Additions and amendments to this template will be reflected on those pages.

For help on how to add a new row, see [[Template:5X5 list entry]].
</noinclude>

{|class="wikitable sortable" style="margin: 1em 3em;"
!No.!!class="unsortable"|Date!!Status!!Contents!!Categories
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 113
|date = May 9 2012
|contents = What's the Harm?
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
|category3 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 112
|date = May 2 2012
|contents = Anecdotal Evidence
|category1 = Legal Issues & Regulations
|category2 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category3 = Neuroscience & Psychology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 111
|date = Apr 25 2012
|contents = Facilitated Communication
|category1 = Pseudoscience
|category2 = Myths & Misconceptions
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 110
|date = Apr 11 2012
|contents = Naturalistic Fallacy
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 109
|date = Apr 4 2012
|contents = Celebrity Pseudoscience
|category1 = Pseudoscience
|category2 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 108
|date = Mar 28 2012
|contents = Cancer Cure
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Conspiracy Theories
|category3 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 107
|date = Mar 21 2012
|contents = Chilean UFO
|category1 = UFOs & Aliens
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 106
|date = Mar 19 2012
|contents = Availability Heuristic
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 105
|date = Mar 7 2012
|contents = Representativeness Heuristic
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 104
|date = Feb 22 2012
|contents = WiFi
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 103
|date = Feb 15 2012
|contents = Creationism
|category1 = Creationism & ID
|category2 = Science & Education
|category3 = Legal Issues & Regulations
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 102
|date = Feb 8 2012
|contents = Biofuels
|category1 = Technology
|category2 = General Science
|category3 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 101
|date = Jan 26 2011
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Slippery Slope/Post Hoc
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 100
|date = Jan 13 2011
|contents = Testable
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 99
|date = Jan 5 2011
|contents = Graphology
|category1 = History
|category2 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 98
|date = Dec 30 2010
|contents = Harry Houdini
|category1 = History
|category2 = Paranormal
|category3 = Ghosts & Demons
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 97
|date = Dec 20 2010
|contents = Repressed Memories
|category1 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 96
|date = Nov 9 2010
|contents = Magnets
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 95
|date = Sep 21 2010
|contents = Chelation
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Alternative Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 94
|date = Sep 12 2010
|contents = Nostradamus
|category1 = Prophecy
|category2 = History
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 93
|date = Aug 13 2010
|contents = Chiropractic - Part 3
|category1 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 92
|date = Jul 28 2010
|contents = Chiropractic - Part 2
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = History
|category3 = Legal Issues & Regulations
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 91
|date = Jul 13 2010
|contents = Chiropractic - Part 1
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = History
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 90
|date = Jun 29 2010
|contents = The Unification Church
|category1 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 89
|date = Jun 14 2010
|contents = Chemtrails
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 88
|date = May 19 2010
|contents = PSI - Part 2
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 87
|date = Mar 31 2010
|contents = PSI - The Ganzfeld Experiments
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 86
|date = Feb 21 2010
|contents = Psi
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 85
|date = Feb 9 2010
|contents = Prediction
|category1 = Prophecy
|category2 = Pseudoscience
|category3 = Paranormal
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 84
|date = Jan 25 2010
|contents = Bermuda Triangle
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category3 = UFOs & Aliens
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 83
|date = Dec 20 2009
|contents = Irreducible Complexity
|category1 = Creationism & ID
|category2 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 82
|date = Dec 2 2009
|contents = Psychic Surgery
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 81
|date = Nov 18 2009
|contents = Naturopathy
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 80
|date = Oct 28 2009
|contents = Polygraphs
|category1 = Technology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 79
|date = Oct 14 2009
|contents = The Lunar Effect
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 78
|date = Sep 23 2009
|contents = Crop Circles
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 77
|date = Sep 9 2009
|contents = The Double-Blind Protocol in Science
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 76
|date = Aug 18 2009
|contents = The Argument from Design
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 75
|date = Aug 12 2009
|contents = The Coriolis Effect
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 74
|date = Aug 4 2009
|contents = Perpetual Motion Machines
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 73
|date = Jul 22 2009
|contents = The Age of the Earth
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 72
|date = Jul 16 2009
|contents = Randi Million Dollar Psychic Challenge and Connie Sonne
|category1 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 71
|date = Jul 8 2009
|contents = The Roswell UFO Mythology
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 70
|date = Jun 30 2009
|contents = New Element Discovered
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 69
|date = Jun 5 2009
|contents = Einstein's Eclipse and General Relativity
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 68
|date = May 22 2009
|contents = Near Death Experiences
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 67
|date = Apr 30 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Special Pleading
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 66
|date = Apr 22 2009
|contents = Plausibility in Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 65
|date = Apr 16 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Scientific Theory
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 64
|date = Apr 2 2009
|contents = The Clever Hans Effect
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 63
|date = Mar 25 2009
|contents = Possession and Exorcism
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 62
|date = Mar 19 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - How to Argue
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 61
|date = Mar 13 2009
|contents = Friday 13th Superstition
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 60
|date = Mar 5 2009
|contents = Cryptozoology
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 59
|date = Feb 25 2009
|contents = Sprites and other atmospheric phenomena mistaken for UFOs
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 58
|date = Feb 17 2009
|contents = The Self-Corrective Nature of Science
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 57
|date = Feb 10 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Moving the Goalpost
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 56
|date = Feb 4 2009
|contents = Probability
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 55
|date = Jan 28 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Poisoning the Well
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 54
|date = Jan 21 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - False Dichotomy
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 53
|status = verified
|date = Jan 13 2009
|contents = Anecdotal Evidence
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
|category3 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 52
|date = Jan 6 2009
|contents = Atlantis
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 51
|date = Dec 29 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Channeling
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 50
|date = Dec 15 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - The Argument from Ignorance
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 49
|date = Dec 8 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Argument from Authority
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 48
|date = Dec 1 2008
|contents = The 10% Brain Myth
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = incomplete
|episode = 47
|date = Nov 24 2008
|contents = Remote Viewing
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 46
|date = Nov 18 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Correlation and Causation
|category1 = General Science
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 45
|date = Nov 11 2008
|contents = Chi and other forms of vitalism
|category1 = Energy Healing
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 44
|date = Nov 4 2008
|contents = Homonculus-based Medical Pseudoscience
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 43
|date = Oct 29 2008
|contents = Holocaust Denial
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = History

}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 42
|status = verified
|date = Oct 22 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Confirmation Bias
|category1 = Neuroscience & Psychology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 41
|status = verified
|date = Oct 15 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Logical Fallacies: Straw Man Argument
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 40
|date = Oct 8 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 39
|date = Aug 1 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - The Ideomotor Effect
|category1 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category2 = Paranormal
|category3 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 38
|date = Sep 24 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Pareidolia
|category1 = Nature & Evolution
|category2 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category3 = Paranormal
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 37
|date = Sep 17 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - The Scientific Method
|category1 = General Science
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = incomplete
|episode = 36
|date = Sep 10 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Cold Reading
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category3 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 35
|date = Sep 3 2008
|contents = No sunspots in August - will this lead to a period of solar cooling?
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 34
|date = Aug 27 2008
|contents = Woman claims wires grow out of her body
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 33
|date = Aug 20 2008
|contents = The Shroud of Turin - Shroud scientists try to resurrect the controversy
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 32
|date = Aug 11 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Occam's Razor
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 31
|date = Aug 4 2008
|contents = Digital Homeopathy 20 years after Benveniste
|category1 = Homeopathy
|category2 = Pseudoscience
|category3 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 30
|date = Jul 29 2008
|contents = Evaluation of a UCONN study of therapeutic touch on bone cells in culture
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = New Age
|category3 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 29
|date = July 20 2008
|contents = The SGU celebrates the 39th anniversary of Apollo 11 by debunking some moon landing hoax myths, and they are joined by Phil Plait, the Bad Astronomer
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 = Conspiracy Theories
|category3 = History
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 28
|date = July 13 2008
|contents = Exposing the logical fallacy of equating faith healing with medical care
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
|category2 = Pseudoscience
|category3 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 27
|date = July 06 2008
|contents = Cracking the Dogu Code - Ancient Astronauts
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = UFOs & Aliens
|category3 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 26
|date = June 29 2008
|contents = New study sheds light on genetic vs environmental contributions to sexuality
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 25
|date = June 22 2008
|contents = NASA Plans Probe to the Sun
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 = Technology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 24
|date = June 15 2008
|contents = New strategy for SETI - The Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 = Technology
|category3 = UFOs & Aliens
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 23
|date = June 08 2008
|contents = Lame car design analogy to intelligent design from the Discovery Institute
|category1 = Creationism & ID
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
|category3 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 22
|date = June 01 2008
|contents = Researchers allow monkey to control robotic arm with its mind
|category1 = Technology
|category2 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category3 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 21
|date = May 25 2008
|contents = Family claims women miraculously brought back to life after rigor mortis
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Science & the Media
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 20
|date = May 18 2008
|contents = SPAM Chainletter e-mails do not spread as virally as thought
|category1 = Technology
|category2 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 19
|date = May 11 2008
|contents = The Science of Science Fiction Movies
|category1 = Entertainment
|category2 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 18
|date = May 4 2008
|contents = Man Regenerates Finger - Bad Science News Reporting
|category1 = Science & the Media
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 17
|date = Apr 27 2008
|contents = T-Rex proteins closely related to chickens
|category1 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 16
|date = Apr 20 2008
|contents = Surgery under hypnosis
|category1 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = incomplete
|episode = 15
|date = Apr 13 2008
|contents = Examining a fossilized snake - with legs
|category1 = Nature & Evolution
|category2 = Creationism & ID
|category3 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 14
|date = Apr 6 2008
|contents = Nomophobia - the fear of being out of cell phone range
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Technology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 13
|date = Mar 30 2008
|contents = Man convicted of molestation claims he was raped by Bigfoot
|category1 = Cryptozoology
|category2 = Legal Issues & Regulations
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 12
|date = Mar 23 2008
|contents = Faith-healing cult leads to child death from medical neglect
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Energy Healing
|category3 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 11
|date = Mar 16 2008
|contents = Art project to give the city of Portland, Oregon acupuncture
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Energy Healing
|category3 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 10
|status = verified
|date = Mar 9 2008
|contents = Steven Spielberg to create new paranormal online community
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 9
|status = verified
|date = Mar 2 2008
|contents = An Emmy award winning actress and her 911 conspiracy theory
|category1 = Conspiracy Theories
|category2 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 8
|status = verified
|date = Feb 23 2008
|contents = Cryptozoology - Hunting for the Thunderbird
|category1 = Cryptozoology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 7
|status = verified
|date = Feb 17 2008
|contents = Proposed center for exorcism in Poland
|category1 = Ghosts & Demons
|category2 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 6
|status = verified
|date = Feb 11 2008
|contents = Dr. Harris's Pain Relief Snake Oil Infomercial
|category1 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
|category2 = Alternative Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 5
|date = Feb 3 2008
|contents = Pope Benedict XVI takes on science
|category1 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 4
|date = Jan 28 2008
|contents = Do celebrity deaths come in threes? The rogues take on numerology
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Paranormal
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 3
|date = Jan 21 2008
|contents = Multilevel Marketing and Pyramid Schemes
|category1 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 2
|date = Jan 13 2008
|contents = Ghost Photographs
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Ghosts & Demons
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 1
|date = Jan 6 2008
|contents = The National Health Service of the UK plans to regulate alternative medicine
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Pseudoscience
}}
|}

5X5 Episode 66

2013-02-26T08:00:05Z

Mark Wade: Initial transcription complete

== Plausibility in Science ==
{{5x5intro}}

S: This is the SGU 5X5 and tonight we're talking about plausibility in science. Science is a cumulative effort, which means that all the things that we come up with in science, because it's describing the same reality, the same universe, must agree internally, must agree with itself, therefore as we build an ever more sophisticated model of how the universe works we can use that model, those ideas that have panned out, in order to test the plausibility of any new ideas in science.

?: And it gives us a starting point or, as it were, a point where we can go ahead and begin new sets of experiments based on the principles of plausibility so that we can avoid having to do the otherwise limitless number of experiments that would otherwise be required. It gives us a place to start.

?: How do you determine prior plausibility then? One way is to look at the best, strongest evidence for a given topic. Is the new claim in line with that evidence? If it is then prior plausibility is high. The threshold of evidence is therefore lower for this claim even though it still may be incorrect. Does the new claim *disagree* with the current accepted body of evidence? Prior plausibility is then lower and the old axiom kicks in: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

S: And what that means practically is that any evidence for the new claim has to be at least as great as all of the previous evidence that says that it shouldn't be true or that it's highly implausible. So you're still comparing evidence to evidence at the end of the day.

?: A really good example of applying the idea of plausibility would be if you think about homeopathy. Homeopathy, as many of you already know, is the belief that by diluting something in water enough that you can get some type of medicinal effect out of it. There is nothing in science today that we would consider homeopathy to be plausible. There's no way that we can see so far with our current science to prove homeopathy or even give it a mechanism for it to work with the way that it's described.

S: That's right, so therefore we would say that homeopathy is an extraordinary claim. Water, that doesn't have any active ingredient left in it, can not have a complex chemical action. For example, homeopaths would try to rescue the plausibility of homeopathy would say well the water retains the memory of what was diluted in it but that's just replacing one magic for another because there's no way, there's no mechanism for that, for the water to have quote-unquote memory or to retain it as it gets put onto a sugar pill and then eaten and digested and then absorbed into the bloodstream and then what this water is still holding together its memory even enough to have a physiological effect? It's so implausible that from a practical point of view we could say that the probability that homeopathy can work is.. it's as close to zero as we can have in science.

R: Of course though, it's important to keep in mind that plausibility or implausibility in and of themselves is not enough to debunk or confirm an idea. It's just a sniff-test to kind of give you the heads up that maybe something needs to be investigated more.

S: That's right, so like again with homeopathy we would need a mountain of evidence that it worked and it would have to be a very clear effect, reproducible, statistically significant and large physiological effect that nobody could doubt that there was some effect happening. Then we would go back and say alright there was obviously something wrong with our plausibility argument so there's some new effect in nature that we haven't discovered before. That's fine, as long as the evidence for a new effect or y'know rewriting the physics or the chemistry textbooks is equal to the evidence that says it shouldn't be possible in the first place. So plausibility plays an absolutely essential role in science. Without consideration of plausibility it's as if we're starting from square one with every new thought or idea that people come up with and that goes against the cumulative nature of science.

{{5x5outro}}

{{5X5 Navigation}}

Template:5X5 episode list

2013-02-26T06:30:07Z

Mark Wade:

<noinclude>This template is used to display the list of 5X5 episodes on the [[Main Page]] and the [[5X5 Episodes]] page. Additions and amendments to this template will be reflected on those pages.

For help on how to add a new row, see [[Template:5X5 list entry]].
</noinclude>

{|class="wikitable sortable" style="margin: 1em 3em;"
!No.!!class="unsortable"|Date!!Status!!Contents!!Categories
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 113
|date = May 9 2012
|contents = What's the Harm?
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
|category3 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 112
|date = May 2 2012
|contents = Anecdotal Evidence
|category1 = Legal Issues & Regulations
|category2 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category3 = Neuroscience & Psychology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 111
|date = Apr 25 2012
|contents = Facilitated Communication
|category1 = Pseudoscience
|category2 = Myths & Misconceptions
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 110
|date = Apr 11 2012
|contents = Naturalistic Fallacy
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 109
|date = Apr 4 2012
|contents = Celebrity Pseudoscience
|category1 = Pseudoscience
|category2 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 108
|date = Mar 28 2012
|contents = Cancer Cure
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Conspiracy Theories
|category3 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 107
|date = Mar 21 2012
|contents = Chilean UFO
|category1 = UFOs & Aliens
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 106
|date = Mar 19 2012
|contents = Availability Heuristic
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 105
|date = Mar 7 2012
|contents = Representativeness Heuristic
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 104
|date = Feb 22 2012
|contents = WiFi
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 103
|date = Feb 15 2012
|contents = Creationism
|category1 = Creationism & ID
|category2 = Science & Education
|category3 = Legal Issues & Regulations
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 102
|date = Feb 8 2012
|contents = Biofuels
|category1 = Technology
|category2 = General Science
|category3 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 101
|date = Jan 26 2011
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Slippery Slope/Post Hoc
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 100
|date = Jan 13 2011
|contents = Testable
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 99
|date = Jan 5 2011
|contents = Graphology
|category1 = History
|category2 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 98
|date = Dec 30 2010
|contents = Harry Houdini
|category1 = History
|category2 = Paranormal
|category3 = Ghosts & Demons
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 97
|date = Dec 20 2010
|contents = Repressed Memories
|category1 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 96
|date = Nov 9 2010
|contents = Magnets
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 95
|date = Sep 21 2010
|contents = Chelation
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Alternative Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 94
|date = Sep 12 2010
|contents = Nostradamus
|category1 = Prophecy
|category2 = History
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 93
|date = Aug 13 2010
|contents = Chiropractic - Part 3
|category1 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 92
|date = Jul 28 2010
|contents = Chiropractic - Part 2
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = History
|category3 = Legal Issues & Regulations
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 91
|date = Jul 13 2010
|contents = Chiropractic - Part 1
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = History
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 90
|date = Jun 29 2010
|contents = The Unification Church
|category1 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 89
|date = Jun 14 2010
|contents = Chemtrails
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 88
|date = May 19 2010
|contents = PSI - Part 2
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 87
|date = Mar 31 2010
|contents = PSI - The Ganzfeld Experiments
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 86
|date = Feb 21 2010
|contents = Psi
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 85
|date = Feb 9 2010
|contents = Prediction
|category1 = Prophecy
|category2 = Pseudoscience
|category3 = Paranormal
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 84
|date = Jan 25 2010
|contents = Bermuda Triangle
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category3 = UFOs & Aliens
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 83
|date = Dec 20 2009
|contents = Irreducible Complexity
|category1 = Creationism & ID
|category2 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 82
|date = Dec 2 2009
|contents = Psychic Surgery
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 81
|date = Nov 18 2009
|contents = Naturopathy
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 80
|date = Oct 28 2009
|contents = Polygraphs
|category1 = Technology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 79
|date = Oct 14 2009
|contents = The Lunar Effect
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 78
|date = Sep 23 2009
|contents = Crop Circles
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 77
|date = Sep 9 2009
|contents = The Double-Blind Protocol in Science
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 76
|date = Aug 18 2009
|contents = The Argument from Design
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 75
|date = Aug 12 2009
|contents = The Coriolis Effect
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 74
|date = Aug 4 2009
|contents = Perpetual Motion Machines
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 73
|date = Jul 22 2009
|contents = The Age of the Earth
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 72
|date = Jul 16 2009
|contents = Randi Million Dollar Psychic Challenge and Connie Sonne
|category1 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 71
|date = Jul 8 2009
|contents = The Roswell UFO Mythology
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 70
|date = Jun 30 2009
|contents = New Element Discovered
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 69
|date = Jun 5 2009
|contents = Einstein's Eclipse and General Relativity
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 68
|date = May 22 2009
|contents = Near Death Experiences
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 67
|date = Apr 30 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Special Pleading
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = incomplete
|episode = 66
|date = Apr 22 2009
|contents = Plausibility in Science
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 65
|date = Apr 16 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Scientific Theory
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 64
|date = Apr 2 2009
|contents = The Clever Hans Effect
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 63
|date = Mar 25 2009
|contents = Possession and Exorcism
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 62
|date = Mar 19 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - How to Argue
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 61
|date = Mar 13 2009
|contents = Friday 13th Superstition
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 60
|date = Mar 5 2009
|contents = Cryptozoology
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 59
|date = Feb 25 2009
|contents = Sprites and other atmospheric phenomena mistaken for UFOs
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 58
|date = Feb 17 2009
|contents = The Self-Corrective Nature of Science
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 57
|date = Feb 10 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Moving the Goalpost
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 56
|date = Feb 4 2009
|contents = Probability
|category1 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 55
|date = Jan 28 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Poisoning the Well
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 54
|date = Jan 21 2009
|contents = Skepticism 101 - False Dichotomy
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 53
|status = verified
|date = Jan 13 2009
|contents = Anecdotal Evidence
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
|category3 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 52
|date = Jan 6 2009
|contents = Atlantis
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = open
|episode = 51
|date = Dec 29 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Channeling
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 50
|date = Dec 15 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - The Argument from Ignorance
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 49
|date = Dec 8 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Argument from Authority
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 48
|date = Dec 1 2008
|contents = The 10% Brain Myth
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = incomplete
|episode = 47
|date = Nov 24 2008
|contents = Remote Viewing
|category1 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 46
|date = Nov 18 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Correlation and Causation
|category1 = General Science
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 45
|date = Nov 11 2008
|contents = Chi and other forms of vitalism
|category1 = Energy Healing
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 44
|date = Nov 4 2008
|contents = Homonculus-based Medical Pseudoscience
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 43
|date = Oct 29 2008
|contents = Holocaust Denial
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = History

}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 42
|status = verified
|date = Oct 22 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Confirmation Bias
|category1 = Neuroscience & Psychology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 41
|status = verified
|date = Oct 15 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Logical Fallacies: Straw Man Argument
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 40
|date = Oct 8 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 39
|date = Aug 1 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - The Ideomotor Effect
|category1 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category2 = Paranormal
|category3 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 38
|date = Sep 24 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Pareidolia
|category1 = Nature & Evolution
|category2 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category3 = Paranormal
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 37
|date = Sep 17 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - The Scientific Method
|category1 = General Science
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = incomplete
|episode = 36
|date = Sep 10 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Cold Reading
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category3 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 35
|date = Sep 3 2008
|contents = No sunspots in August - will this lead to a period of solar cooling?
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 =
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 34
|date = Aug 27 2008
|contents = Woman claims wires grow out of her body
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 33
|date = Aug 20 2008
|contents = The Shroud of Turin - Shroud scientists try to resurrect the controversy
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 32
|date = Aug 11 2008
|contents = Skepticism 101 - Occam's Razor
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 31
|date = Aug 4 2008
|contents = Digital Homeopathy 20 years after Benveniste
|category1 = Homeopathy
|category2 = Pseudoscience
|category3 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 30
|date = Jul 29 2008
|contents = Evaluation of a UCONN study of therapeutic touch on bone cells in culture
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = New Age
|category3 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 29
|date = July 20 2008
|contents = The SGU celebrates the 39th anniversary of Apollo 11 by debunking some moon landing hoax myths, and they are joined by Phil Plait, the Bad Astronomer
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 = Conspiracy Theories
|category3 = History
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 28
|date = July 13 2008
|contents = Exposing the logical fallacy of equating faith healing with medical care
|category1 = Logic & Philosophy
|category2 = Pseudoscience
|category3 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 27
|date = July 06 2008
|contents = Cracking the Dogu Code - Ancient Astronauts
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = UFOs & Aliens
|category3 = Pseudoscience
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 26
|date = June 29 2008
|contents = New study sheds light on genetic vs environmental contributions to sexuality
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 25
|date = June 22 2008
|contents = NASA Plans Probe to the Sun
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 = Technology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 24
|date = June 15 2008
|contents = New strategy for SETI - The Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence
|category1 = Astronomy & Space Science
|category2 = Technology
|category3 = UFOs & Aliens
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 23
|date = June 08 2008
|contents = Lame car design analogy to intelligent design from the Discovery Institute
|category1 = Creationism & ID
|category2 = Logic & Philosophy
|category3 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 22
|date = June 01 2008
|contents = Researchers allow monkey to control robotic arm with its mind
|category1 = Technology
|category2 = Neuroscience & Psychology
|category3 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 21
|date = May 25 2008
|contents = Family claims women miraculously brought back to life after rigor mortis
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Science & the Media
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 20
|date = May 18 2008
|contents = SPAM Chainletter e-mails do not spread as virally as thought
|category1 = Technology
|category2 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 19
|date = May 11 2008
|contents = The Science of Science Fiction Movies
|category1 = Entertainment
|category2 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 18
|date = May 4 2008
|contents = Man Regenerates Finger - Bad Science News Reporting
|category1 = Science & the Media
|category2 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 17
|date = Apr 27 2008
|contents = T-Rex proteins closely related to chickens
|category1 = Nature & Evolution
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 16
|date = Apr 20 2008
|contents = Surgery under hypnosis
|category1 = Science & Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = incomplete
|episode = 15
|date = Apr 13 2008
|contents = Examining a fossilized snake - with legs
|category1 = Nature & Evolution
|category2 = Creationism & ID
|category3 = General Science
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 14
|date = Apr 6 2008
|contents = Nomophobia - the fear of being out of cell phone range
|category1 = Science & Medicine
|category2 = Technology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 13
|date = Mar 30 2008
|contents = Man convicted of molestation claims he was raped by Bigfoot
|category1 = Cryptozoology
|category2 = Legal Issues & Regulations
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 12
|date = Mar 23 2008
|contents = Faith-healing cult leads to child death from medical neglect
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Energy Healing
|category3 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 11
|date = Mar 16 2008
|contents = Art project to give the city of Portland, Oregon acupuncture
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Energy Healing
|category3 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 10
|status = verified
|date = Mar 9 2008
|contents = Steven Spielberg to create new paranormal online community
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 9
|status = verified
|date = Mar 2 2008
|contents = An Emmy award winning actress and her 911 conspiracy theory
|category1 = Conspiracy Theories
|category2 = Entertainment
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 8
|status = verified
|date = Feb 23 2008
|contents = Cryptozoology - Hunting for the Thunderbird
|category1 = Cryptozoology
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 7
|status = verified
|date = Feb 17 2008
|contents = Proposed center for exorcism in Poland
|category1 = Ghosts & Demons
|category2 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|episode = 6
|status = verified
|date = Feb 11 2008
|contents = Dr. Harris's Pain Relief Snake Oil Infomercial
|category1 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
|category2 = Alternative Medicine
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 5
|date = Feb 3 2008
|contents = Pope Benedict XVI takes on science
|category1 = Religion & Faith
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 4
|date = Jan 28 2008
|contents = Do celebrity deaths come in threes? The rogues take on numerology
|category1 = Myths & Misconceptions
|category2 = Paranormal
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 3
|date = Jan 21 2008
|contents = Multilevel Marketing and Pyramid Schemes
|category1 = Cons, Scams & Hoaxes
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 2
|date = Jan 13 2008
|contents = Ghost Photographs
|category1 = Paranormal
|category2 = Ghosts & Demons
}}
|-
{{5X5 list entry
|status = verified
|episode = 1
|date = Jan 6 2008
|contents = The National Health Service of the UK plans to regulate alternative medicine
|category1 = Alternative Medicine
|category2 = Pseudoscience
}}
|}

5X5 Episode 66

2013-02-26T06:27:26Z

Mark Wade:

{{transcribing all
|transcriber = Mark Wade
}}

== Plausibility in Science ==
{{5x5intro}}

S: This is the SGU 5X5 and tonight we're talking about plausibility in science. Science is a cumulative effort, which means that all the things we come up with in science, because it's describing the same reality, the same universe, must agree internally, must agree with itself, therefore as we build an ever more sophisticated model of how the universe works we can use that model, those ideas that have panned out in order to test the plausability of any new ideas in science.

?: And it gives us a starting point or, as it were, a point where we can go ahead and begin new sets of experiments based on the principles of plausibility so that we can avoid having to do the otherwise limitless number of experiments that would otherwise be required. It gives us a place to start.

?: How do you determine prior plausibility then? One way is to look at the best, strongest evidence for a given topic. Is the new claim in line with that evidence? If it is then prior plausibility is high. The threshold of evidence is therefore lower for this claim even though it still may be incorrect. Does the new claim *disagree* with the current accepted body of evidence? Prior plausibility is then lower and the old axiom kicks in: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

S: And what that means practically is that any evidence for the new claim has to be at least as great as all of the previous evidence that says that it shouldn't be true or that it's highly implausible. So you're still comparing evidence to evidence at the end of the day.

?: A really good example of applying the idea of plausibility would be if you think about homeopathy. Homeopathy, as many of you already know, is the belief that by diluting something in water enough that you can get some type of medicinal effect out of it. There is nothing in science today that would consider homeopathy to be plausible. There's no way that we can see so far with our current science to prove homeopathy or even give it a mechanism for it to work the way that it's described.

S: That's right, so therefore we would say that homeopathy is an extraordinary claim. Water, that doesn't have any active ingredient left in it, can not have a complex chemical action. For example, homeopaths...

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5X5 Episode 66

2013-02-26T06:26:19Z

Mark Wade: /* Plausibility in Science */

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== Plausibility in Science ==
{{5x5intro}}

S: This is the SGU 5X5 and tonight we're talking about plausibility in science. Science is a cumulative effort, which means that all the things we come up with in science, because it's describing the same reality, the same universe, must agree internally, must agree with itself, therefore as we build an ever more sophisticated model of how the universe works we can use that model, those ideas that have panned out in order to test the plausability of any new ideas in science.

?: And it gives us a starting point or, as it were, a point where we can go ahead and begin new sets of experiments based on the principles of plausibility so that we can avoid having to do the otherwise limitless number of experiments that would otherwise be required. It gives us a place to start.

?: How do you determine prior plausibility then? One way is to look at the best, strongest evidence for a given topic. Is the new claim in line with that evidence? If it is then prior plausibility is high. The threshold of evidence is therefore lower for this claim even though it still may be incorrect. Does the new claim *disagree* with the current accepted body of evidence? Prior plausibility is then lower and the old axiom kicks in: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

S: And what that means practically is that any evidence for the new claim has to be at least as great as all of the previous evidence that says that it shouldn't be true or that it's highly implausible. So you're still comparing evidence to evidence at the end of the day.

?: A really good example of applying the idea of plausibility would be if you think about homeopathy. Homeopathy, as many of you already know, is the belief that by diluting something in water enough that you can get some type of medicinal effect out of it. There is nothing in science today that would consider homeopathy to be plausible. There's no way that we can see so far with our current science to prove homeopathy or even give it a mechanism for it to work the way that it's described.

S: That's right, so therefore we would say that homeopathy is an extraordinary claim. Water, that doesn't have any active ingredient left in it, can not have a complex chemical action. For example, homeopaths...

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5X5 Episode 66

2013-02-26T05:50:19Z

Mark Wade: /* Plausibility in Science */

5X5 Episode 66

2013-02-26T05:21:44Z

Mark Wade: Created page with "== Plausibility in Science == {{5x5intro}} {{5x5outro}} {{5X5 Navigation}}"

== Plausibility in Science ==
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5X5 Episode 100

2012-11-13T07:35:24Z

Mark Wade: a few small changes

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{{Template:5X5 infobox
|episodeID = 5X5 Episode 100 
|Contents = Testable
|episodeDate = 13<sup>th</sup> January 2011 
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|notesLink = http://www.theskepticsguide.org/archive/podcastinfo.aspx?mid=2&pid=100
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== Testable ==
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S: This is the SGU 5X5 and tonight we're talking about testable versus untestable claims in science. The concept of whether or not a claim or a belief, a theory, a hypothesis if you will, is testable is very important, essential in fact, to the scientific method. It essentially refers to the fact that in order for something to be scientific, it needs to be subject to either observations or experimentations that can distinguish it from other claims or other alternative hypotheses, or that can be used to say that a hypothesis or a claim is probably true or is probably not true. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_popper Karl Popper], the philosopher, took this to the point of saying that in order for a theory to be scientific it not only has to be testable, it has to be [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability falsifiable], meaning that a test has to be able to prove that the theory is false. There doesn't necessarily have to be a test that could by itself demonstrate or prove that a hypothesis is true, but it definitely needs to be possible to prove that it is false. So while this is definitely a necessary criterion for a theory or a claim being scientific, it is not sufficient and you know there are other criteria that are also important, but that does remain a very critical component, that is essential to the very concept of science and the scientific method.

E: Yeah, a good example of a untestable claim is the old creationist argument that God created the world to appear exactly as if it had evolved naturally over 4 billion years with fossils and everything else. This claim is certainly consistent with the evidence but it makes no predictions that can be tested against any future observations. In fact it's designed to eliminate any observable distinction between an evolved and a created world. It's therefore important to identify such claims as untestable and therefore non-scientific because such claims are worthless to the advancement of knowledge.

R: Now that's not to say that all supernatural claims aren't testable. There are plenty of supernatural claims that are perfectly testable. Anything you can think of in terms of psychics and ghosts and UFOs can be tested so long as it has some impact on the real world. So if you consider a ghost, for instance, that might be haunting your house. If it makes a sound, or if you see something out of the corner of your eye, that means that it's affecting the everyday real world and that means that we do have a chance to examine it in a scientific manner. Anything that interacts with the real world can be tested scientifically.

B: Often it can be fairly easy to determine if a claim is testable or not. It's ultimately a matter of determining if a claim has any consequences to the real world. If 'yes', then it should be testable; if 'no', then it's not testable and therefore not science. Sometimes though, it can be very difficult to devise a test for a specific claim. Sometimes you can mistakenly conclude that a claim is untestable and outside the realm of science. The [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_bang_theory Big Bang Theory], for example, describing the beginning of the universe, was once considered to be untestable. In fact some scientists in the 1940s likened it to the religious creation myths in this regard. It was theorized though that the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_microwave_background_radiation radiation] released by the Big Bang would have certain predictive characteristics and it took a while but the technology was eventually capable of testing these claims and as we all know showed it to be true. So be wary of claims that seem untestable but in reality are. Of course the flip-side is to not let pseudo-scientists use that as an out for their truly untestable claims.

J: The details of a legitimate test must be extremely specific in order for legitimate information to be produced. The more vague a test is the less likely it will produce any usable information. So, as an example, when defining what type of study or test you're going to conduct, your terminology has to be predicted and defined. Every term that's used. You even need to go as far as try to predict all the possible outcomes in order to even understand what those outcomes mean.

S: Yes I think an important point to bring up is that not all notions which are untestable are untestable in the same way though. Bob, you brought up the example of the Big Bang, for example, whereas Evan brought up the example of the earth is created in the recent past but made to look exactly as if it's billions of years old. There are some claims that are inherently untestable. They are formulated in such a way that there is no possible observation that can be made for or against it, and therefore it is forever outside the realm of science. There are other hypotheses or theories or notions which are just practically untestable. We don't have a way ''now'' to test it, but there's nothing inherent to the claim itself that makes it untestable. There's just no practical way that anyone has figured out so far or we just don't have the technology at the present time in order to be able to test it. And that's where you get into a little bit of a gray area. Are such notions scientific? I think that they are, but they are just at a preliminary stage of science. They have not yet closed the loop if you will, until somebody actually figures out a way to make an observation or some experiment that can in fact test the hypothesis. But that distinction I do think is important to make and I'd also want to emphasize what Bob said and that is sometimes claims are made specifically to be unfalsifiable and often those who promote fairly dubious claims will do this whether consciously or unconsciously in order to insulate their claim from falsification, so they fail to meet Popper's minimal criteria of falsifiability and the now classic literary reference to this is [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_sagan Carl Sagan]'s invisible floating dragon that breathes heatless fire. There may be such a creature in my garage but if you formulate the claim in such a way that no possible test can falsify its existence, then you have simply placed it outside the realm of science. That doesn't make it wrong. It makes it 'not even wrong', which is worse in the eyes of science.

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